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Japanese Yen Strengthens

Japanese Yen Strengthens as Traders Anticipate BoJ Rate Hike

Japanese Yen Strengthens as Traders Anticipate BoJ Rate Hike

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to gain momentum for the second consecutive day as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda’s hawkish comments stand in stark contrast to the dovish tone of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

In a speech to Parliament on Friday, Governor Ueda suggested that the BoJ might consider further interest rate hikes if economic conditions align with their projections. July’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data remained at its highest level since February, further supporting the BoJ’s hawkish outlook.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is weakening due to increasing expectations of a rate cut in September. During the Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chair Powell remarked, “The time has come for policy to adjust,” though he did not specify the timing or scale of the potential cuts.

Market participants are now widely anticipating a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are fully pricing in at least this amount.

Daily Market Movers: Japanese Yen Rises on BoJ Ueda’s Hawkish Comments

Bloomberg reported that Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker emphasized the need for a gradual reduction in US interest rates. Reuters added that Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that monetary policy is currently at its most restrictive level, with the Fed now focusing on achieving its employment mandate.

Governor Ueda, speaking before the Japanese parliament on Friday, clarified that the BoJ is “not considering selling long-term Japanese government bonds (JGBs) as a tool for adjusting interest rates.” He added that any reduction in JGB purchases would only account for about 7-8% of the balance sheet, which is a relatively small decrease. Ueda further mentioned that if the economy meets their projections, there could be a phase where interest rates might be adjusted slightly higher.

Japan’s National CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year in July, maintaining this rate for the third consecutive month and remaining at its highest level since February. Additionally, the National CPI excluding Fresh Food increased by 2.7%, the highest reading since February, in line with expectations.

In the US, the Composite PMI edged down slightly to 54.1 in August from 54.3 in July, a four-month low but still above market expectations of 53.5. This indicates continued growth in US business activity, marking 19 consecutive months of expansion.

The FOMC minutes from July’s policy meeting revealed that most Fed officials were in agreement that a rate cut is likely at the September meeting, provided that inflation continues to cool.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Drops Near 144.00

USD/JPY traded around 143.90 on Friday, with the daily chart indicating the pair is positioned below a downtrend line, suggesting a bearish outlook. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 30, indicating that the bearish trend might persist.

On the downside, the USD/JPY pair may approach the seven-month low of 141.69, recorded on August 5. A break below this level could drive the pair toward the throwback support level at 140.25.

In terms of resistance, the USD/JPY pair may test the immediate barrier at the downtrend line around the psychological level of 145.00, followed by the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the 145.74 level. A breakthrough above the nine-day EMA could lead the pair to explore the region around the throwback-turned-resistance at the 154.50 level.

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Gold Price Holds Below $2,500 as Traders

Gold Price Holds Below $2,500 as Traders Await Powell’s Speech

Gold Price Holds Below $2,500 as Traders Await Powell’s Speech

Gold (XAU/USD) is seeing some dip-buying on the last trading day of the week, partially recovering from Thursday’s over 1% drop to a weekly low. The US Dollar (USD) is struggling to build on its overnight rebound from the year-to-date low, due to expectations of lower interest rates in the US. This dovish outlook has triggered a decline in US Treasury bond yields, putting pressure on the Greenback. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks are providing support to the safe-haven appeal of gold.

However, traders remain cautious and are avoiding significant bullish positions ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium later today. This hesitation is keeping gold prices below the key psychological level of $2,500 as the European session approaches. Powell’s remarks will be closely analyzed for indications regarding the Fed’s potential rate-cut path, which will significantly impact near-term USD price movements and offer new directional momentum for gold.

Daily Market Movers: Gold Traders on Standby for Powell’s Speech

On Thursday, the US Dollar staged a solid recovery from its 2024 low, buoyed by rebounding US Treasury bond yields, which drew investors away from gold. However, the USD’s recovery lacked sustained momentum due to market speculation that the Federal Reserve might begin a rate-cutting cycle in September, limiting losses for XAU/USD.

On the economic data front, the US Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 for the week ending August 17, up from the previous 228,000. This followed an annual benchmark review revealing that US employers added 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported for the year through March.

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 30-31 showed an increasing number of policymakers supporting a rate cut next month due to progress in reducing inflation. The S&P Global flash PMI indicated that US manufacturing activity contracted at its fastest pace this year, although the services sector saw a surprise increase. The composite PMI showed continued healthy expansion in US private sector business activity, with selling price inflation nearing pre-pandemic levels.

Comments from regional Fed officials reflect a cautious stance on rate cuts. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid emphasized the need for more data to support a rate reduction, while Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker indicated openness to a September cut, contingent on economic data. Boston Fed President Susan Collins also suggested that a rate cut would soon be appropriate as inflation data stabilizes.

Market attention is now focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, which will be pivotal in signaling the future trajectory of interest rates and influencing gold’s direction.

Technical Analysis: Gold’s Setup Suggests Potential for Further Gains

From a technical perspective, gold’s recent decline found support near the $2,370 horizontal resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a crucial pivot point. A decisive break below this level could trigger technical selling, pushing gold prices towards the next support area around $2,345-$2,343. Further downside could extend towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently positioned just above the $2,400 mark.

Conversely, if gold can regain momentum above the $2,500 level, it will face initial resistance around the $2,513-$2,514 region. Clearing this hurdle could open the door to testing the all-time high near $2,531-$2,532, potentially reigniting bullish momentum and extending gold’s recent uptrend.

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US Dollar Faces Continued Pressure as Market Focus

US Dollar Faces Continued Pressure as Market Focus Shifts to PMI Data

US Dollar Faces Continued Pressure as Market Focus Shifts to PMI Data

After a brief recovery earlier in the day on Wednesday, the US Dollar Index reversed course during the American session, marking its fourth consecutive day of losses. As of Thursday’s European trading hours, all eyes are on the preliminary August PMI data from Germany and the Eurozone, provided by HCOB, alongside the S&P Global/CIPS PMI figures. Later in the day, the US economic calendar will feature weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, and S&P Global PMI data.

On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a preliminary estimate indicating a benchmark revision for March 2024’s total Nonfarm employment, with a downward adjustment of -818,000 (-0.5%). Additionally, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July 30-31 policy meeting revealed that a significant majority of policymakers felt that, should the incoming data align with expectations, easing policy at the next meeting would likely be appropriate. The USD Index is currently trading just above 101.20, down over 1% since the start of the week. Meanwhile, US stock futures are slightly lower, and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield remains near the lower end of its weekly range, around 3.8%.

In Asian trading, data from Australia showed the Judo Bank Composite PMI rose to 51.4 in August’s preliminary reading, up from 49.9 in July. However, this improvement failed to significantly impact AUD/USD, which continues to trade sideways around 0.6750.

EUR/USD surpassed 1.1170 on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since July 2023 before entering a consolidation phase early Thursday. The pair is currently steady at around 1.1150.

GBP/USD maintained its bullish momentum on Wednesday, climbing above 1.3100 for the first time in over a year. The pair remains just below this level as of Thursday morning in Europe.

USD/JPY was unable to capitalize on the USD’s broader weakness, closing flat on Thursday. The pair continues to trade sideways around 145.50 at the start of the European session.

Gold, which had corrected from its record high of $2,531 set on Tuesday, stabilized above $2,500 late Wednesday. XAU/USD remains relatively quiet, trading near $2,510 early Thursday.

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How Responsible is the Polish Central Bank

How Responsible is the Polish Central Bank? – Commerzbank Analysis

How Responsible is the Polish Central Bank? – Commerzbank Analysis

The Polish zloty weakened against the euro and other CE3 currencies yesterday after Poland’s Constitutional Court issued a controversial ruling. The court declared that NBP governor Adam Glapinski could not be held accountable by a parliamentary committee, the State Tribunal, or through any report by such bodies, citing constitutional guarantees of central bank independence. This argument has been used by the previous ruling party (PiS) from the outset of this dispute, notes Commerzbank’s FX Analyst Tatha Ghose.

Zloty Weakens Against the Euro

“We believe this argument lacks merit and doubt that parliament will consider the Constitutional Court’s ruling as binding. Poland’s Constitutional Court has been compromised since the rule of law disputes with the EU and lacks legitimacy. Other key courts are also dominated by right-wing PiS affiliates. The accusations from both sides are driven by ideology rather than good faith.”

“On balance, it seems clear that Glapinski’s ’emergency’ rate cuts just before the elections, coupled with his refusal to cut rates further after an opposing political party took over, were politically motivated. The NBP cannot now claim ‘central bank independence’ after failing to uphold its constitutional duty to remain apolitical.”

“The new KO government will likely proceed with the planned Sejm procedures despite the court’s ruling, pushing for Glapinski’s suspension. Glapinski, in turn, will likely use the ruling to resist interrogation. This standoff is expected to continue in parliament for the next year without a clear resolution. As a result, monetary policy is likely to remain highly politicized and stagnant during this period.”

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EUR/USD Approaches YTD Highs Near

EUR/USD Approaches YTD Highs Near 1.1050 on Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts

EUR/USD Approaches YTD Highs Near 1.1050 on Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts

The EUR/USD pair climbed to year-to-date (YTD) highs, nearing 1.1040, during early European trading on Monday. This rise is supported by a broad weakening of the US Dollar (USD) amid increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates in September. Market participants are now keenly awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday for further insights into potential rate cuts.

On Sunday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed greater confidence that inflation is under control, suggesting that it might be time to consider lowering borrowing costs from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also cautioned that the US central bank should avoid maintaining restrictive policies longer than necessary. These dovish remarks from Fed officials have added selling pressure on the Greenback and provided a boost to EUR/USD.

Currently, investors are pricing in a roughly 70% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut in September, with some expecting a more substantial half-point cut. Morningstar’s chief US economist, Preston Caldwell, noted that the latest CPI report further supports the case for aggressive Fed rate cuts starting in September, with an initial 25 basis point cut projected to bring the Fed Funds rate down to 5.00-5.25%.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) remains resilient as markets anticipate a gradual reduction in interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB). At the latest press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a cautious, data-dependent approach, stating that policymakers are “not pre-committing to a particular rate path” and will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

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Japanese Yen Strengthens

Japanese Yen Strengthens Amid Hawkish BoJ Sentiment; US Data in Focus

Japanese Yen Strengthens Amid Hawkish BoJ Sentiment; US Data in Focus

The Japanese Yen (JPY) rebounded against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, likely bolstered by Japan’s strong second-quarter GDP growth, which fuels speculation about a potential interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

However, the Yen may face headwinds due to political uncertainty in Japan, triggered by reports suggesting that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will not seek re-election as party leader in September, potentially ending his term as prime minister.

The USD/JPY pair is trending lower as the US Dollar weakens, pressured by declining Treasury yields. Moreover, traders are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve for September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Despite this, the Greenback found some support from recent positive US economic data, which has eased recession fears. Upcoming data, including the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August and July’s Building Permits, will be closely watched during the North American session.

Market Highlights: Japanese Yen Rises on Hawkish BoJ Outlook

On Thursday, the US Census Bureau reported a 1.0% month-over-month increase in US Retail Sales for July, reversing June’s 0.2% decline and exceeding the expected 0.3% rise. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 9 came in at 227,000, lower than the forecast of 235,000 and down from 234,000 the previous week.

Japanese Economy Minister Yoshitaka Shindo expressed optimism on Thursday, stating that Japan’s economy is expected to recover gradually as wages and incomes improve. He also mentioned that the government will work closely with the BoJ to implement flexible macroeconomic policies.

Japan’s GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, beating market expectations of 0.5% and rebounding from a 0.6% contraction in Q1. This marks the strongest quarterly growth since Q1 2023. On an annualized basis, GDP grew by 3.1%, surpassing the 2.1% market consensus and reversing a 2.3% contraction in Q1. This is the highest yearly growth since Q2 2023.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern on Wednesday about the labor market rather than inflation, noting recent improvements in price pressures alongside weak employment data. He added that the extent of rate cuts will depend on prevailing economic conditions, according to Bloomberg.

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed a 2.9% year-over-year increase in July, slightly down from the 3% rise in June and below market expectations. The Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.2% year-over-year, a slight decrease from June’s 3.3% increase, in line with market forecasts.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on Wednesday that he will not seek re-election as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in September. Kishida highlighted the need to address Japan’s deflationary pressures by promoting wage and investment growth, with the goal of expanding Japan’s GDP to ¥600 trillion.

Rabobank’s senior FX strategist, Jane Foley, noted that this week’s series of US data releases, along with the upcoming Jackson Hole event, should offer more clarity on potential US policy actions. The primary expectation is for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with another potential cut by year-end.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Slips Toward 148.50; Immediate Support at Nine-Day EMA

The USD/JPY pair is trading around 148.80 on Friday. The daily chart indicates that the pair is above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a short-term bullish trend. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, and further gains would confirm a bullish momentum.

In terms of support levels, the USD/JPY pair may find immediate support at the nine-day EMA, around 148.09. A drop below this level could enhance the bearish outlook, potentially pushing the pair toward the seven-month low of 141.69, recorded on August 5. A continued decline could bring the pair closer to the next support level at 140.25.

On the upside, the USD/JPY pair could target the 50-day EMA at 153.08, with a possibility of testing the resistance level at 154.50, which has shifted from previous throwback support to current pullback resistance.

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Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Gains Strength

Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Gains Strength Ahead of CPI Inflation Data

Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Gains Strength Ahead of CPI Inflation Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has weakened against the US Dollar (USD) following an unexpected rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Wednesday. The RBNZ reduced its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 5.25% from 5.50%. Given the close economic ties between Australia and New Zealand, developments in one country can influence the other, impacting their respective currencies.

Despite this, the AUD found some support from recent data showing that Australian wage growth remained strong in the second quarter, leading the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain a hawkish stance on its policy outlook. The RBA kept the cash rate steady at its meeting last week, aiming to return inflation to its 2-3% target range.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock ruled out the possibility of rate cuts within the next six months, emphasizing the bank’s cautious approach to inflation risks and its readiness to raise rates if necessary. Traders are now focused on the upcoming release of Consumer Inflation Expectations and Employment data from Australia on Thursday.

The AUD/USD pair saw support as the US Dollar retreated following weaker-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the United States (US) released on Tuesday. Investors are now looking ahead to the US CPI inflation report on Wednesday, which could provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate strategy.

Market Movers: Potential for Australian Dollar Appreciation Amid RBA’s Hawkish Stance

On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed increased confidence in the Fed’s ability to achieve its 2% inflation target, though he noted that more evidence is needed before supporting a rate reduction, according to Reuters.

The US Core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in July, down from the previous 3.0%, and below the expected 2.7%. The overall PPI increased by 2.2% YoY in July, compared to 2.7% in June, missing the market forecast of 2.3%. Month-over-month, PPI rose by 0.1% after a 0.2% increase in June.

In Australia, Westpac Consumer Confidence rose by 2.8% in August, reversing a 1.1% decline in July. Meanwhile, the Wage Price Index saw a 0.8% rise in the second quarter, slightly below the expected 0.9% increase.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser attributed persistent inflation to weaker supply and a tight labor market, noting the significant uncertainty surrounding economic forecasts.

However, the AUD’s upside could be limited by safe-haven flows due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On Sunday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant informed US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin of Iran’s military activities, which suggest preparations for a significant strike on Israel, according to Axios writer Barak Ravid.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman also stated on Sunday that she sees ongoing inflation risks and labor market strength, indicating that the Fed may not be ready to cut rates at their next meeting in September, according to Bloomberg.

Westpac recently revised its RBA forecast, now predicting the first rate cut in February 2025, delayed from the previously expected November 2024. They also adjusted their terminal rate forecast to 3.35% from 3.10%, reflecting the RBA’s cautious approach, requiring stronger evidence before considering rate cuts.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar Trades Near 0.6650

The Australian Dollar is trading around 0.6640 on Wednesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the AUD/USD pair is moving within an ascending channel, indicating a strengthening bullish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also moved above the 50 level, confirming the bullish momentum.

On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at the 0.6675 level. A breakout above this level could propel the pair toward its six-month high of 0.6798, achieved on July 11.

In terms of support, the AUD/USD pair could test the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6587, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the throwback level at 0.6575. A drop below this level could lead to a bearish outlook, potentially pushing the pair toward the throwback level at 0.6470.

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China's Economy Yet

Asian Stocks Decline Due to Chinese Market Impact, Dollar Experiences Weakness

Asian Stocks Decline Due to Chinese Market Impact, Dollar Experiences Weakness

Asian markets experienced a downturn on Friday, influenced by Chinese shares and with little direction from Wall Street, closed for a holiday. Meanwhile, the dollar remained subdued as expectations grow that U.S. interest rates have reached their peak. Japan’s core consumer inflation and factory activity data had a minimal impact on the yen.

The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.4%, although it’s still on track for a weekly rise of 0.9% and a significant 7.1% increase in November. This uptick is largely due to growing investor confidence that U.S. interest rates have reached their maximum, with focus shifting to the timing and extent of future rate cuts. Japan’s Nikkei, returning from a holiday, jumped 1.0%, nearing a 33-year peak achieved earlier in the week.

Chinese blue chips dropped 0.3%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plummeted 1.3%, erasing previous gains. Hong Kong-listed Chinese developers also fell 0.7%, despite a recent 6.4% surge following new support measures from Beijing.

Shane Oliver, AMP’s chief economist, noted that markets might undergo a period of consolidation after a rapid rebound, possibly affecting the traditional year-end rally. With U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving and minor uplifts in European shares and the euro from better-than-expected euro zone PMIs, global market dynamics remained mixed.

The European Central Bank’s latest minutes indicated that while inflation in the euro zone is expected to decline, rate hikes remain a possibility. In bond markets, U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly as trading resumed in Asia.

The dollar struggled against other major currencies, nearing a three-month low, while the British pound strengthened, supported by positive business survey results that led to a reassessment of the Bank of England’s rate cut timeline.

Oil prices showed mixed reactions, with Brent crude slightly up and West Texas Intermediate crude down, following concerns about the delayed OPEC+ meeting. Gold prices remained stable at $1,992.75 per ounce, reflecting the cautious sentiment in global markets.

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Dollar Starts 2024 at Peak Since

Asian Stocks Reach 2-Month High as Dollar Takes Defensive Stance Amid Fed View

Asian Stocks Reach 2-Month High as Dollar Takes Defensive Stance Amid Fed View

Asian stocks reached a two-month high on Tuesday, mirroring gains on Wall Street, while the dollar remained weak due to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve has concluded its interest rate hike cycle.

The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose by 0.97% to 510.11, touching its highest level since September 18. It has surged by 7% this month, marking its most substantial monthly gain since January.

In Europe, the risk-on sentiment is poised to continue, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up by 0.18%, German DAX futures 0.14% higher, and FTSE futures up 0.01%.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes to discern the future direction of interest rates. They are also closely monitoring earnings from Nvidia, which reached a record high on Monday.

Wall Street saw gains across its three major stock averages on Monday, with the Nasdaq leading the charge with a 1% rally, driven by Microsoft’s record high. The company recently hired Sam Altman, who formerly led OpenAI.

November has witnessed a broad-based rebound in global stock markets as economic data hinted at a potential easing of U.S. inflation. This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve might halt its monetary tightening and consider rate cuts next year.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei edged higher, remaining close to its 33-year high reached on Monday. The index has surged by approximately 28% this year, making it the best-performing stock market in Asia.

China’s blue-chip CSI300 Index was 0.58% higher, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.78% on reports of Beijing’s new stimulus measures for the property sector, boosting risk appetite.

Lower yields in the Treasury market, driven by strong demand in the sale of 20-year Treasury bonds, have reinforced the belief that inflation will decelerate, and the Fed may cut rates next year. Consequently, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes dropped by 2.9 basis points to 4.393%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell by 4.2 basis points to 4.533%.

The dollar continued to weaken, with the dollar index down 0.135% at 103.31, touching a near three-month low of 103.17 earlier in the session. The Japanese yen gained 0.22% to 148.03 per dollar, moving away from its one-year low of 151.92 reached last week. The Australian dollar, often considered a risk appetite indicator, reached a three-month high of $0.65775.

Australia’s central bank chief emphasized the challenge of inflation over the next one to two years, following the recent interest rate hike to combat rising prices.

Oil prices retreated after a previous day’s rally, with U.S. crude slipping by 0.46% to $77.47 per barrel, and Brent crude at $81.94, down 0.46% for the day.

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Market Trepidation as Investors Anticipate Federal Reserve’s Next Moves

Market Trepidation as Investors Anticipate Federal Reserve’s Next Moves

As trading commenced this week, apprehension took hold of the global markets, resulting in a dip in stock prices and raising questions about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions. Asian equity benchmarks, which had been on a steady climb, were halted in their tracks. Notably, South Korea’s Kospi Index took a significant plunge of over 3% after experiencing its most substantial surge since 2020, following the reinstatement of a short-selling ban. This downward trend echoed through European and US stock futures, which also saw a decline.

Market Analyst Jun Rong Yeap of IG Asia Pte. remarked on the previous day’s commendable rallies, indicating that markets were retreating from those peaks amidst strengthening bond yields and a robust US dollar that set the tone for the week.

Investors and traders are now gauging the Federal Reserve’s next steps, with expectations that the Fed might resist further easing of financial conditions, maintaining flexibility in policy direction. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has expressed caution, suggesting it is premature to claim victory over inflation despite emerging signs of subdued price pressures. In the coming days, the financial community will closely monitor the discourse of various Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, for clearer guidance.

On the front of government debt, the markets saw stabilization after an initial surge in Treasury yields, which climbed by eight basis points, spurred by a considerable issuance of corporate debt and anticipation of forthcoming auctions. This activity strengthened the US dollar, which gained ground against its major counterparts in the Group-of-10.

Max Wasserman, the founder and senior portfolio manager at Miramar Capital, shared insights on Bloomberg Television, indicating a likelihood of trading within a specified range as the market seeks clarity on the trajectory of core inflation and the Fed’s response.

The currency and rate swaps market is currently pricing in more than a full percentage point of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2024, despite expectations of a peak rate of 5.37%. Contributing to the busy start of the week was the analysis of the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS), which revealed persisting tight standards and diminished demand at US banks.

In Australia, the dollar and equity markets felt additional pressure as the central bank resumed rate hikes after a pause, citing heightened inflation risks and a commitment to assess further data and risks for potential policy tightening.

Adding to the global economic concerns, China reported a more pronounced decline in exports for October than anticipated, underscoring a continued slump in international trade and a delicate recovery within its own borders. The offshore yuan remained relatively stable post-release of the trade data.

As the day unfolds, investors’ attention will turn to Europe, with anticipated earnings reports from major corporations, including UBS Group AG. The energy sector is also in the spotlight, with oil prices experiencing a dip amid an uncertain demand forecast and renewed skepticism about the conclusion of the Fed’s rate hikes, despite extended supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

The markets are poised on a knife-edge, with investor sentiment swinging between caution and optimism as they navigate through a plethora of economic signals and await decisive actions from central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, which remains a focal point in global financial discourse.

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Turbulence in Asian Stocks and Anticipated European Market Openings in Light of Key Data Releases

Turbulence in Asian Stocks and Anticipated European Market Openings in Light of Key Data Releases

In the wake of unexpected economic data releases, Asian stock markets experienced a downturn on Tuesday, with most indices reflecting a downward trend. At the same time, European stock markets are gearing up for a diverse opening, eyeing imminent Eurozone GDP and CPI announcements.

The focal point of this decline was largely influenced by China’s PMI data, which failed to meet analysts’ expectations. This was further coupled with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announcing modifications to its bond yield control policy post its October session. With the Federal Reserve meeting slated for Wednesday, there is widespread anticipation, potentially leading to increased caution amongst market participants.

Further elaborating on the Federal Reserve’s stance, Chair Jerome Powell has confirmed that there wouldn’t be any changes in the rates in the forthcoming meeting. Yet, market players will be keenly observing remarks from Fed officials during the scheduled press conference. The seemingly dovish inclination of US policymakers might be a catalyst for oscillations in risk-prone assets, primarily the stock markets.

Delving deeper into the Asian market specifics: Shanghai noted a decline of 0.19%, settling at 3,015; the Shenzhen Component Index took a dip of 0.90% to 9,838; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng experienced a steep fall of 1.70% to 17,110; South Korea’s Kospi plummeted by 1.38%; India’s NIFTY 50 saw a decrease of 0.16%, while in contrast, Japan’s Nikkei rose marginally by 0.16%.

A considerable factor contributing to the pressure on Chinese equities was the subpar Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. It receded to 49.5 in October from a previous 50.2 in September, missing the market projection of 50.2. Concurrently, the NBS Services PMI also fell to 50.6 in October, not meeting the anticipated consensus of 51.8.

Shifting focus to Japan, the BoJ maintained its interest rate and the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield target at -0.1% and 0%, respectively. Following its October deliberation, the bank introduced more flexibility to the YCC and adjusted its verbiage pertaining to the 1.0% 10-year JGB yield ceiling.

European stock markets are prepping for a mixed start, with investors keenly awaiting key data such as German Retail Sales, preliminary Eurozone inflation figures, and the Gross Domestic Products for Q3. Providing a backdrop, Monday’s data showcased a slight recovery in German growth, registering a 0.1% quarterly fall, better than the expected 0.3% slump. Also, the German CPI for October stood at 3.8% YoY, marking the lowest since August 2021.

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Asian Equities Experience Uptick Amid US Bond Yield Dip and China’s Economic Stimulus Plans

Asian Equities Experience Uptick Amid US Bond Yield Dip and China’s Economic Stimulus Plans

On Friday, the majority of Asian stock markets displayed promising signs of positive trading. A noteworthy factor in this uptick has been the declining US Treasury bond yield, which bolstered regional stocks as investors keenly awaited the release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data set for later that day. However, ongoing geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East could cast a shadow, potentially applying downward pressure on these stock markets.

Key indices from various nations demonstrated these upward trends: China’s Shanghai grew by 0.35% reaching 2,998, Shenzhen Component Index surged by 1.11% to 9,672, Hong Kong’s Hang Sang leaped by 0.99% marking 17,213, South Korea’s Kospi showed a marginal increase of 0.02%, while Japan’s Nikkei boasted an impressive rise of 1.14%.

Chinese stocks, in particular, showcased a notable rebound from the lows of the past several months. This resurgence is attributed to the Chinese government’s robust economic move of issuing bonds worth 1 trillion yuan. This strategic step is aimed at catalyzing and invigorating local economic growth.

Meanwhile, in Japan, economic indicators presented some surprises. The nation witnessed inflation rates rising at a swifter pace than earlier projections for October. This unexpected increase might influence the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to adopt a more assertive and hawkish approach in their forthcoming BoJ meeting scheduled for the next week.

Diving deeper into Japan’s economic landscape, the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October recorded a jump to 3.3% YoY, a climb from its previous 2.8%, as reported early Friday by the Japan Statistics Bureau. Furthermore, the National CPI excluding fresh food also saw an increase, marking 2.7% YoY in October, up from September’s 2.5%.

Down south, Australia also witnessed shifts in its economic indicators. The Producer Price Index (PPI) of Australia moderated to 3.8% YoY in Q3, a slight dip from the 3.9% recorded earlier. Quarter-wise, the figures landed at 1.8%, showing a significant rise from the previous 0.5%.

In the larger global context, investors are now turning their focus to the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for September, releasing on Friday. The anticipated monthly and annual core figures are projected to be 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively. Moreover, as the week concludes, all eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering in the upcoming week, an event that could usher in market volatility.

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Oil Price Surge May Limit Gains

Asian shares rise on strong corporate profits and lower oil prices

Asian shares rise on strong corporate profits and lower oil prices

Asian markets showed resilience and optimism on Wednesday, following the lead of Wall Street, as major corporations like Verizon exceeded profit expectations for the summer season. This boost in corporate earnings has instilled hope that companies will finally show growth after a year of stagnation, a development of utmost significance for global stock markets, which have grappled with the pressures of surging bond yields.

The recent surge in the 10-year Treasury yield, which has climbed from below 3.50% in the spring, has been a cause for concern. It is steadily approaching the Federal Reserve’s main overnight interest rate, which currently stands at its highest level since 2001, above 5.25%. The rapid rise in yields has adverse effects on various investments, including stocks and cryptocurrencies, and also has the potential to hamper economic growth, introducing stress into the broader financial system.

As of early Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield remained stable at 4.84%, indicating a temporary respite from its upward trajectory. In the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei 225 index surged by 1.3%, reaching 31,466.92 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also saw robust gains, rising by 1.8% to 17,290.91, while the Shanghai Composite index registered a 0.5% increase, reaching 2,977.84 points. Conversely, South Korea’s Kospi experienced a 0.4% decline, settling at 2,373.88 points, and the S&P/ASX 200 in Sydney remained relatively unchanged at 6,856.60 points. India’s Sensex faced a 1.3% dip, while the SET index in Bangkok soared by 1.2%.

On Tuesday, Wall Street exhibited a strong performance, with the S&P 500 climbing by 0.7% to reach 4,247.68 points, breaking a five-day losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw a 0.6% increase, closing at 33,141.38 points. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq composite displayed an even more robust gain of 0.9%, closing at 13,139.87 points.

Verizon’s impressive performance particularly stood out, as its stock surged by 9.3%. The company reported a 20% increase in broadband subscribers and exceeded analysts’ profit expectations for the summer season. General Electric also made significant gains, with its stock rising by 6.5% after reporting better-than-expected earnings and raising its profit forecast for the year. Coca-Cola followed suit with a 2.9% increase, attributing its success to growth in markets such as Mexico and India, which contributed to better-than-expected summer profits.

Despite concerns surrounding rising interest rates and bond yields, the broader economy has displayed remarkable resilience. A robust job market and strong consumer spending have supported economic growth. However, there is lingering anxiety among investors that even if interest rates and yields stabilize at current levels, they may still be high enough to potentially trigger a recession if the Federal Reserve chooses to maintain its current stance. The situation continues to be closely monitored by market participants and economists alike.

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Nikkei 225 & Hang Seng Fall: Rising US Yields, Lower Risk Appetite

Nikkei 225 & Hang Seng Fall: Rising US Yields, Lower Risk Appetite

Asian stocks witnessed a pronounced downturn on Friday, largely influenced by global bond market dynamics that have steadily been weakening investors’ risk appetite. The situation is further exacerbated by mounting concerns over the escalating tensions between Israel and Hamas. This geopolitical instability, coupled with economic concerns, has made investors increasingly wary.

The possibility of the United States raising its interest rates has cast a shadow over the regional markets. Higher interest rates typically deter risk-oriented investments, making these markets less attractive. Such a move by the U.S. can potentially limit the inflow of foreign capital, thereby stifling the economic potential of these regions. 

Delving into specific market metrics, as of the latest update, the SSE Composite Index in China recorded a 0.27% drop, settling at 2,997 points. Meanwhile, the Shenzhen Component Index saw a dip of 0.36%, bringing it down to 9,620 points. Japan’s flagship index, the Nikkei 225, also wasn’t spared, falling 0.18% to 31,375. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong reported a 0.41% decrease, the Korean KOSPI index slid to 2,382, and Taiwan’s Weighted Index declined by 0.20%.

In China, concerns surrounding its property sector played a significant role in the stock market’s dip. Despite data suggesting robust economic growth, these concerns have acted as a counterbalance, diluting the market’s potential growth. Adding to the Chinese market’s woes is the looming uncertainty about a potential default by real estate giant, Country Garden Holdings. The company’s recent failure to make a timely payment on its international bonds has left traders and investors on edge, making them more cautious about Chinese assets.

Japan’s equity market took a hit when data released on Friday showed that the consumer price index inflation in September surpassed prior expectations. It’s worth noting that this inflationary indicator, which the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monitors closely, is at a level reminiscent of figures seen over four decades ago. Such statistics underline the enduring nature of inflationary pressures within Japan’s economic framework.

Moreover, the tech sector in Asia, which often serves as a barometer for global tech trends, has been under considerable strain this week. This is primarily due to a surge in global bond yields, causing investors to reconsider their stance on growth stocks. As a result, the appeal of tech shares in the region has waned. Significant players like SK Hynix Inc and Samsung Electronics saw their stock prices decline, adding to the downward pressure on South Korea’s KOSPI index.

 

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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Gold Prices Decline Amid Renewed Demand for US Dollar

Gold Prices Decline Amid Renewed Demand for US Dollar

Gold Prices Decline Amid Renewed Demand for US Dollar

Gold prices (XAU/USD) lost their upward momentum on Tuesday, falling as renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) strengthened. This decline was influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

The recent US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which fell short of expectations, has led to increased speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates later this year. Such a move could potentially make gold more attractive as an investment. Lower interest rates generally decrease the yield on US bonds, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thereby making it a more appealing option for investors, particularly those purchasing with foreign currencies.

Moreover, gold continues to find robust support from strong central bank purchases and persistent demand from Asian markets. These factors are helping to underpin the precious metal’s value in the near term. Additionally, ongoing political unrest in the Middle East is heightening gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. In times of uncertainty, investors often turn to gold to protect their wealth against potential losses in other markets, suggesting a possible uptick in demand if tensions escalate further.

Adding to the complex interplay of factors influencing gold prices is an upcoming speech by Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Market participants will be keenly watching his tone; a hawkish stance could bolster the US Dollar as it suggests a more conservative approach to lowering interest rates. This could, in turn, apply downward pressure on gold prices, as a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The interrelation of US monetary policy, geopolitical developments, and central bank activities creates a dynamic environment for gold investors. They must navigate through varying signals that influence gold prices, such as economic data releases, central bank statements, and global political events. These elements collectively contribute to the fluid nature of gold’s valuation in the global markets, highlighting the complexity of factors that traders and investors must consider when dealing with precious metals.

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Australian Dollar Strengthens on Improved Risk Sentiment

Australian Dollar Strengthens on Improved Risk Sentiment

Australian Dollar Strengthens on Improved Risk Sentiment

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its upward trend for the fourth consecutive session on Monday, driven by growing optimism surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). This positive sentiment is underpinning the AUD’s strength and providing solid support for the AUD/USD pair.

As the RBA prepares for its upcoming Tuesday meeting, market expectations are high that the central bank will maintain the cash rate at its current 12-year high of 4.35%. However, there’s speculation brewing that the RBA might reintroduce a soft tightening bias, especially in light of last week’s release of inflation data that exceeded forecasts, as reported by The Australian Financial Review.

On the other side of the currency equation, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is facing pressure due to the disappointing US jobs report released on Friday. The weaker-than-expected employment data has revived hopes among investors for potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year. This sentiment shift is contributing to the ongoing risk appetite in the market.

Moreover, investors are closely monitoring statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who struck a relatively dovish tone regarding the monetary policy outlook during Wednesday’s session. Powell’s remarks have further fueled expectations of accommodative measures from the Fed in response to economic conditions.

Overall, the Australian Dollar’s resilience, supported by expectations of a hawkish stance from the RBA, contrasts with the weaker US Dollar driven by concerns over the US economic recovery. This dynamic is likely to influence currency markets in the coming days as investors navigate shifting central bank policies and economic data releases.

 

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Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Week High, Poised for Further Gains Against USD

Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Week High, Poised for Further Gains Against USD

Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Week High, Poised for Further Gains Against USD

The Japanese Yen continued to attract buyers for the third consecutive day on Friday, reaching a nearly three-week high against the US Dollar during the Asian trading session. This marks the fourth day in the past five trading days that the JPY has seen gains against its American counterpart. Speculation that Japan’s financial authorities intervened in the market on Thursday, for the second time this week, in an effort to strengthen the domestic currency has been a significant contributing factor to the JPY’s recent surge.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar has extended its losses following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which has added to the negative sentiment surrounding the USD/JPY pair. The widening interest rate differential between the US and Japan is also playing a role in supporting the Japanese Yen’s strength.

However, there is uncertainty regarding whether the JPY bulls will be able to maintain their dominant position in the market. The growing consensus that the interest rate gap between the US and Japan will persist for some time could potentially limit the JPY’s gains. Additionally, the positive sentiment in equity markets may act as a deterrent for investors seeking safe-haven assets like the JPY.

Traders are also exercising caution and refraining from making aggressive bets ahead of the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report from the US later in the day. The NFP data is closely watched by investors as it provides insights into the health of the US labor market and can have a significant impact on market sentiment.

Overall, the Japanese Yen’s recent rally and the USD’s weakness are expected to continue to influence the USD/JPY pair in the near term, as markets await key economic data releases and monitor developments in global markets.

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Australian Dollar Gains Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

Australian Dollar Gains Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

Australian Dollar Gains Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has seen a slight recovery driven by a potential shift towards risk-on sentiment among investors. Despite this uptick, the AUD/USD pair encountered downward pressure in the early trading hours on Wednesday. This movement followed the release of the AiG Industry Index, which indicated a continued contraction in private business activity across Australia during March. This data comes just as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is gearing up for its meeting next week, where it is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.35%.

The Australian Dollar’s trajectory was also influenced by Tuesday’s retail sales data from Australia, which came in lower than anticipated. This disappointing result could impact the RBA’s previously hawkish stance on maintaining higher interest rates. However, recent inflation data from Australia, which exceeded expectations, suggests that the central bank might postpone any planned rate cuts to manage inflationary pressures effectively.

In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) is experiencing a strong rally. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of six major currencies, continues to advance as investors await the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy meeting slated for later on Wednesday. The anticipation surrounding this meeting has grown, especially after a surge in US bond yields which followed the release of higher-than-expected Employment Cost Index data. This rise in yields has been supported by hawkish comments from Fed officials, who have indicated that there is no immediate necessity to cut interest rates, adding pressure to the AUD/USD exchange rate.

Furthermore, key economic indicators from the US, such as the ADP Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, are due to be released on Wednesday. These data points are crucial as they provide insights into the health of the US economy and could influence the Fed’s decisions during its monetary policy announcement. Traders and investors are keenly awaiting these releases, hoping to gauge potential shifts in economic policy and their likely impact on global currency markets, including the Australian Dollar.

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Australian Dollar Recovers from Intraday Losses

Australian Dollar Gains Despite Weak US Dollar

Australian Dollar Gains Despite Weak US Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its recent gains on Monday, maintaining its position around the three-week peak of 0.6560. This upward trend began on April 22, largely driven by increasing hawkish expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) following last week’s higher-than-expected CPI inflation data.

Warren Hogan, the chief economic adviser at Judo Bank, speculated in the Australian Financial Review that the RBA might increase the cash rate three times in 2024, potentially reaching a rate of 5.1%. The first of these hikes is anticipated as early as August. This forecast has fueled investor interest ahead of the release of the March Retail Sales data on Tuesday. This report is keenly watched as it offers insights into consumer spending patterns in Australia, which are crucial indicators of inflation trends and overall economic health.

In contrast, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, has seen some recent pullback, perhaps indicating a shift toward a risk-on market sentiment. Despite this, it is widely expected that the US Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at 5.25%–5.5% in its next announcement on Wednesday. This caution is likely due to persistent concerns about high inflation levels.

Recent data supports the Fed’s cautious stance, with the CME FedWatch Tool now showing an 87.7% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the Fed’s June meeting, an increase from 81.7% just last week. Additionally, the latest US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March revealed a slight increase year-over-year. This uptick supports the idea that the Fed might postpone any rate cuts until at least September, aligning with current market expectations.

Overall, the contrasting monetary policy outlooks for the RBA and the Fed are creating an interesting dynamic for the AUD/USD exchange rate. As investors digest the implications of fiscal policy decisions and economic indicators from both the US and Australia, the AUD appears to be benefiting from a more aggressive rate hike path anticipated by the RBA, contrasting with a more cautious approach from the Fed amid ongoing inflation concerns.

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Australian Dollar Rises Amid Hawkish RBA Sentiment

Australian Dollar Rises Amid Hawkish RBA Sentiment

The Australian Dollar (AUD) marked its fifth consecutive session of gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, buoyed by increasing expectations of a hawkish monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). This outlook was further supported by TD Securities’ revised forecast, which pushed back the expected RBA rate cut from November to February 2025.

The AUD’s rise was amplified by a surge in Australian government bond yields, with the 10-year yield climbing to a 21-week peak of 4.59%. This increase followed the release of Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, which exceeded expectations and bolstered hawkish sentiments towards the RBA’s future moves.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, experienced a rebound, possibly influenced by a shift towards risk-off sentiment. However, this rebound was tempered by a decline in US Treasury yields, which has contributed to the USD’s overall weakening.

Despite the mixed preliminary economic indicators from the United States, including unexpectedly high Core Personal Consumption Expenditures and a lower-than-forecast Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the first quarter, the USD struggled to gain momentum. The focus now shifts to the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for March, set for release on Friday. This data is highly anticipated, as investors look to assess its implications for ongoing inflationary pressures and the potential adjustments in US monetary policy.

As global financial markets continue to digest these developments, the dynamics between the AUD and USD remain closely watched, with the Australian currency’s strength reflecting broader economic trends and policy expectations.

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European Amidst Rising Yields and Market Downturn

Crypto Community Responds to BRICS’ Consideration of Stablecoin for Trade Settlement

Crypto Community Responds to BRICS’ Consideration of Stablecoin for Trade Settlement

BRICS is stepping up its efforts to lessen its dependence on the US dollar by exploring the creation of a stablecoin for international trade. This initiative, highlighted by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, aims to unify the financial systems of BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Ryabkov emphasized that a stablecoin might be essential for this integration, hinting at its potential to be backed by gold, given the significant gold reserves of the BRICS countries.

The move towards developing a BRICS stablecoin aligns with the bloc’s broader goal of “de-dollarization” in global trade, reflecting its members’ increasing economic influence. This could lead to the establishment of a native currency for the bloc, further solidifying its economic autonomy and promoting a “multi-polar world” where reliance on the US dollar is diminished.

Speculation has also arisen around the technological foundation for the BRICS stablecoin. An XRP enthusiast suggested that the bloc could leverage the XRP Ledger for its stablecoin, especially as Ripple plans to launch its own stablecoin later this year. This potential partnership could provide a robust platform for BRICS’ ambitions, combining their strategic economic goals with advanced blockchain technology.

Overall, the development of a BRICS stablecoin represents a significant step towards redefining the global financial landscape, potentially reducing the dominance of the US dollar in international trade and increasing the financial sovereignty of the BRICS nations.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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