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EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens; FOMC Minutes in Spotlight

The EUR/USD pair slid to around 1.1705 during Wednesday’s Asian session, weighed down by renewed strength in the US Dollar. The Euro came under pressure following fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump, which unsettled global markets and added to investor caution. 

Trump reignited global trade concerns by proposing a 50% tariff on copper imports and hinted at possible duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. While he mentioned that negotiations with both the European Union and China are progressing well, he also warned that a tariff notice to the EU could be issued within days. This uncertainty has dented risk sentiment, putting the Euro under additional stress. 

Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, due later today. Market participants are hoping for more clarity on the Fed’s rate path, especially amid growing expectations of monetary easing. 

At its June meeting, the Fed held interest rates steady, maintaining the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%—a level unchanged since December. However, markets are now pricing in a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end, potentially beginning as early as October. 

Australian Dollar Rises Amid Risk-On Sentiment, Focus Shifts to RBA Rate Decision

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its third straight session of gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following US President Donald Trump’s move to postpone the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. A weaker USD following disappointing US retail sales data has further supported the AUD/USD pair, reigniting speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates later this year despite persistent inflation concerns.

Yet, the AUD’s gains could be capped before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy announcement on Tuesday, as mounting speculation of a cut in interest rates deters sentiment. The RBA is widely expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10%, marking the first rate reduction in four years.

US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Lower Treasury Yields

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down for the third consecutive session, bogged down by weaker US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the DXY is trading around 106.70, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields at 4.26% and 4.47%, respectively.

Statistics released by the US Census Bureau on Friday indicated that US Retail Sales decreased 0.9% in January, a reversal from a revised 0.7% rise in December (earlier reported as 0.4%). The decrease was deeper than the market expectation of a 0.1% decline.

Conversely, Core PPI inflation in the US increased to 3.6% YoY in January, above expectations of 3.3%, though marginally less than the revised 3.7% (initially published as 3.5%). This has consolidated expectations that the Fed will push rate cuts until the second part of the year.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% YoY in January, beating expectations of 2.9%, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) went up to 3.3% from 3.2%, beating expectations of 3.1%. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose 0.5% in January compared to 0.4% in December, with core CPI rising to 0.4% from 0.2% in the same period.

Fed Officials Signal a Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts

In his semi-annual report to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that policymakers “do not need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates, citing a strong labor market and robust economic growth. Powell also warned that Trump’s tariff policies could exert upward pressure on inflation, making it harder for the central bank to lower rates.

A Reuters poll of economists now indicates the Fed will wait until next quarter to cut rates, citing ongoing inflationary concerns. Although previously, some analysts anticipated a March rate cut; the majority now sees at least one rate cut by June, but opinions remain divided.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack echoed this sentiment, saying that maintaining rates at current levels for a long time is probably the right thing to do. Hammack added that a patient strategy will enable the Fed to evaluate economic conditions before altering policy.

Australian Dollar Targets Upper Range Near 0.6400

The AUD/USD currency pair quotes at 0.6360 on Monday, with an uptrend in a rising channel formation. This is indicative of a bullish market inclination, which is also complemented by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 50.

On the upside, the pair could test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6380, followed by the psychological level of 0.6400.

Major levels of support are the nine-day EMA at 0.6310, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6294. A fall below these levels may erode short-term momentum, possibly pulling the pair down to the lower boundary of the rising channel at 0.6270.

Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Holds Gains Ahead of Jobless Claims

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as trade balance data came in below average than expected. Furthermore, risk-off sentiment, fueled by rising US-China trade tensions, weighs on the AUD/USD.

In December, Australia’s trade surplus fell to $5,085 million, falling short of the 7,000 million anticipated and down from $6,792 million the previous year. While exports increased by 1.1% month on month, this was a decrease from November’s 4.2% increase, while imports increased by 5.9% month on month, much more than the previous 1.4% gain.

US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Australian Dollar

Investors are still focused on the current trade stagnation between the United States and China, Australia’s top trading partner. China replied to the United States’ new 10% tax, which went into force on Tuesday, causing global market concern. Regarding the situation, President Trump announced on Monday that he intends to engage with China within the next 24 hours. However, he cautioned that failure to achieve an agreement might result in “very, very substantial” tariffs.

Meanwhile, China’s Commerce Ministry imposed a 15% tax on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, as well as an additional 10% levy on crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos. As a countermeasure, China has implemented export limits on important minerals such as tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, and molybdenum, citing national security concerns.

Amid escalating trade tensions, the Financial Times writes that Chinese firms are quickening preparations to relocate production overseas, mainly to the Middle East, in order to reduce tariff impacts. Some exporters are also considering passing on prices to US consumers or expanding into new markets.

US Dollar Holds Firm Amid Mixed Economic Data

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, remains stable near 107.50, putting further downward pressure on the AUD/USD. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a weaker-than-expected US Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January, below the market forecast of 54.3.

Investors now focus on Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a key economic indicator that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.

The dollar fell on Wednesday, following a poor US Services PMI report. The ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, missing the market forecast of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are anticipating Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Pulls Back From 0.6300, Eyes Key Support

The AUD/USD pair hovers near 0.6280 on Thursday, retreating from the 0.6300 level. However, sustained trading above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) suggests short-term bullish momentum remains intact. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also holding above 50, reinforcing the bullish bias.

On the upside, the pair might target 0.6330, its seven-week high from January 24.

Immediate support comes from the nine-day EMA near 0.6254, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6249.

A breach below these levels might weaken the bullish structure, potentially sending the pair below 0.6087, its lowest level since April 2020, which was recorded on February 3.

Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

The Australian Dollar (AUD) falls for the seventh consecutive day as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens following President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Market volatility remains high as investors monitor the continuing US-China trade talks. Trump signaled he may speak with Chinese officials within the next 24 hours, warning that if a deal isn’t reached, tariffs on China will be “very, very substantial.”

Trump also announced a 30-day tariff relief for Mexico and Canada after their nations agreed to send 10,000 troops to the US border to battle drug trafficking. This move follows the introduction of 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods just two days before.

Chinese Exporters Seek Alternatives

According to the Financial Times, Chinese manufacturers are speeding up plans to transfer production offshore in reaction to US tariffs. Some companies are considering relocating to regions such as the Middle East, while others are looking into passing costs on to US customers or entering new markets.

RBA Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on AUD

The AUD faces additional pressure amid growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut rates in February. The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since November 2023, stressing that inflation must return to its 2%-3% target range before easing policy.

Analysts at Westpac continue to forecast 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, with the market pricing in a more conservative outlook. ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and National Australia Bank (NAB) all anticipate a 25-basis-point (bps) cut in February, with NAB recently revising its forecast forward from May.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Developments

The US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilizes around 108.70 after erasing gains from the previous session. Recent US economic data support the greenback, with ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, exceeding expectations of 49.8.

Inflation indicators remain in focus as the Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 0.3% MoM in December, up from 0.1% in November. Annual PCE inflation increased to 2.6%, while core PCE held steady at 2.8% YoY for the third straight month.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, highlighted that further policy adjustments would be required if there was clear evidence of inflation advance or labor market weakness. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently argued for new uniform taxes on US imports, beginning at 2.5% and progressively increasing—a departure from his previous stance that tariffs cause inflation.

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

AUD/USD trades around 0.6210 on Tuesday, remaining within a descending channel pattern on the daily chart, signaling a bearish bias. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recovering toward the 50 level, suggesting weakening downside momentum. A breakout above the channel, combined with an RSI move above 50, could indicate a shift toward a bullish outlook.

On the downside, the pair may test the descending channel’s lower boundary near 0.6150. A break below this level could drive AUD/USD toward 0.6087, its lowest point since April 2020.

AUD/USD is currently testing its initial resistance, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6225, which aligns with the channel’s upper limit. A decisive move over this level could fuel bullish optimism.

 

Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum; USD/JPY Struggles Below 154.50

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen in early European trading on Thursday, pushing USD/JPY further below 154.50 and closer to its one-month low from earlier this week. Market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again by year-end continue to support the JPY. Additionally, a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields, narrowing the US-Japan yield differential, has further boosted demand for the lower-yielding Yen.

However, concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may limit aggressive JPY buying. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish pause on Wednesday has bolstered the US Dollar (USD), which could provide some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders are now looking ahead to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which may increase market volatility and drive further demand for the safe-haven Yen. Additionally, the Advance US Q4 GDP report could introduce short-term trading opportunities.

JPY Gains on Hawkish BoJ Sentiment Amid Market Uncertainty

  • Minutes from the BoJ’s December meeting, released Wednesday, indicated discussions on using neutral interest rate estimates to guide future rate hikes.
  • Former BoJ board member Makoto Sakurai stated on Tuesday that steady rate increases remain feasible due to rising wages, sustained inflation, and strong economic growth.
  • The Federal Reserve, as expected, held rates steady after its two-day meeting and signaled no immediate plans for rate cuts.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a patient stance, stating there is no urgency to adjust policy and reaffirming that rates will stay elevated amid concerns over Trump’s trade policies, which could fuel inflation.
  • The 10-year US Treasury yield has struggled to sustain gains post-FOMC due to uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s economic policies.
  • Reports from Asahi newspaper indicate that Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is finalizing plans for a February 7 meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington.
  • The ECB’s policy decision later today is expected to introduce further volatility, alongside the Advance US Q4 GDP print.

USD/JPY at Risk of Retesting Monthly Lows Near 153.70

The USD/JPY pair faced renewed selling pressure near the 156.00 level, breaking below the key 155.00 psychological mark, confirming a multi-month ascending channel breakdown. Momentum indicators on the daily chart suggest continued downside movement, making a retest of the 153.70 region—a multi-week low touched on Monday—a strong possibility.

Key resistance levels for a rebound:

  • 155.00 round figure
  • 155.35-155.40 region
  • 156.00 psychological level

Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling pressure near these levels. A sustained break above 156.25 could trigger short-covering, potentially lifting USD/JPY toward 156.70-156.75, with further resistance at 157.00 and 157.60.

For now, the bias remains bearish, with further losses expected if the pair stays below 154.00. Traders will closely watch US data and global central bank policy updates for the next directional move.

Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold price (XAU/USD) faces selling pressure at the beginning of the week, pulling back from its highest level since late October, near the $2,786 mark touched on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) has staged a modest recovery following its worst weekly performance since November 2023, which has weighed on the precious metal. However, the broader market dynamics remain supportive of a bullish outlook, suggesting potential dip-buying opportunities at lower price levels.

Market Sentiment Dampened by Trade Tensions and Fed Speculation

Risk sentiment has deteriorated due to US President Donald Trump’s recent decision to impose tariffs on all imports from Colombia, reigniting fears of a trade war. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates twice by year-end, combined with a flight to safe-haven assets, have triggered a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields. This decline could limit aggressive gains in the USD, potentially cushioning the downside for gold, a non-yielding asset.

Gold Under Pressure from USD Recovery, but Downside Remains Limited

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of currencies, rose nearly 0.25% on Monday, driven by revived concerns over US trade policies. President Trump ordered 25% emergency tariffs on all Colombian imports following the country’s refusal to accept deported migrants from the US, with a threat to raise tariffs to 50% next week. Moreover, reports suggest that Trump’s advisors are considering imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1.

In a recent update, the White House confirmed that Colombia has agreed to Trump’s demands, including the unrestricted acceptance of deported individuals. Meanwhile, Trump has reiterated his call for immediate interest rate cuts, fueling speculation of further easing by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The resulting decline in US Treasury yields may act as a headwind for the USD, potentially limiting the extent of gold’s pullback.

Traders Eye Economic Data for Further Clues

Market participants will turn their focus to key US economic data, including Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, for fresh impetus during the US trading session.

Gold Price Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

Gold’s recent decline may attract dip-buying near the $2,736 support zone, as the technical setup remains bullish. Any further slide below the $2,750-2,748 range could find solid support near $2,736, with additional key levels at $2,725-2,720. A break below $2,720 could trigger technical selling, pushing prices toward the $2,665-2,662 zone.

On the upside, a sustained move above the $2,772-2,773 resistance could open the door for a retest of the recent peak near $2,786. Further buying momentum beyond the $2,800 psychological level could signal a renewed bullish phase, extending the upward trend

Gold Price Remains Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold price (XAU/USD) came under selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday, retreating from the multi-month high of $2,763–$2,764 touched the previous day. This decline halts a three-day winning streak. The US Dollar (USD) gained some strength from its recovery off a monthly low, supported by a rebound in US Treasury bond yields, and the upbeat sentiment in equity markets further dampened demand for the safe-haven metal.

Signs of easing inflation in the US have fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates twice this year, creating a potential headwind for US bond yields and the USD. However, ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which could increase trade tensions and market volatility, may help limit the downside for gold prices. Traders may remain cautious and wait for sustained selling pressure to confirm that the one-month uptrend has ended.

Risk-On Mood and Modest USD Rebound Cap Gold Gains

The USD steadied above its recent lows amid recovering Treasury yields, adding pressure to gold prices. In addition, easing geopolitical tensions and a lack of concrete details regarding Trump’s tariff policies have maintained a risk-on sentiment, further undermining gold’s appeal.

While Trump’s proposed tariff policies are considered inflationary, which could prompt the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, markets are still pricing in at least two Fed rate cuts this year. This outlook may limit the upside for US bond yields and the USD, potentially supporting gold in the near term.

Investors are eyeing Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum for more clarity on tariffs, alongside the release of US Weekly Jobless Claims, which could influence XAU/USD prices. Upcoming central bank rate decisions, including the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday and next week’s announcements from the Fed and the European Central Bank, could inject volatility into the market and impact gold prices.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Key Support Levels:

  • Immediate support is seen near the $2,725–$2,720 zone, a former resistance-turned-support level.
  • Further declines could target the $2,700 mark, with a decisive break paving the way for a move toward the $2,665–$2,662 region.
  • The $2,627–$2,622 confluence, which includes the 100-day EMA and a short-term ascending trendline, will act as a critical pivot point for short-term traders.

Key Resistance Levels:

  • The recent high near $2,763–$2,764 offers the first resistance level.
  • A break above this zone could see gold prices challenge the all-time high around $2,790, reached in October.
  • The $2,800 mark is the next significant resistance, and a break above it would signal a continuation of the well-established uptrend over the past month.

Outlook:

Gold prices remain influenced by risk sentiment, central bank policy expectations, and USD movements. While near-term bearish factors may limit gains, uncertainty around US tariff policies and inflation trends could provide support, making any dips near key technical levels potential opportunities for dip-buying. Traders will remain focused on upcoming economic data and central bank decisions for further direction.

Nikkei Index Temporarily Reaches Highest Point in 33 Years

Nikkei Index Temporarily Reaches Highest Point in 33 Years

On Tuesday morning, the Nikkei Stock Average experienced a significant surge, reaching its highest session point in 33 years. This notable increase was primarily driven by the performance of technology stocks, which mirrored the upward trend observed in major tech companies in the United States.

During the morning trading session, the Nikkei Average impressively climbed to 33,990.28, marking a substantial rise of 612.86 points or an increase of 1.8% from its closing figure on the previous Friday. This peak surpassed the prior high, which was recorded on November 20, and it represents the most elevated level the index has achieved since March 1990.

As the morning session wrapped up, the Nikkei Average had slightly receded from its peak but still maintained a robust gain. It closed the morning trade up by 481.21 points, or 1.4%, settling at 33,858.63.

It’s noteworthy that the benchmark index’s all-time high was set at 38,915 in December 1989, a record that remains unbeaten to this day.

In tandem with the Nikkei Average, the broader Tokyo Stock Price Index also saw growth, rising by 0.9% to reach 2,415.74 by the end of the morning session.

The surge in the Nikkei Stock Average on Tuesday can be largely attributed to the strong performance of technology stocks in the U.S. market. This rally in the U.S. occurred during Japan’s extended weekend, a period when the Japanese stock market was closed, hence the delayed reaction in the Japanese market.

The primary contributors to the rise in Japan’s benchmark index were key technology and semiconductor companies. Advantest, a manufacturer of chip-testing devices, saw a significant increase in its stock value, soaring up by 8.5% at one point. Similarly, Tokyo Electron, a company specializing in chip equipment, experienced a notable uptick in its stock price, climbing by 4.9%.

This remarkable growth in the Nikkei Stock Average reflects the interconnected nature of global financial markets, where trends and performances in one major market, like the U.S., can have immediate and significant impacts on others, such as Japan. The rise in technology stocks, both in Japan and the U.S., underscores the sector’s vital role in the current global economic landscape. This event marks a milestone for the Nikkei Average, highlighting the continuing evolution and dynamism of the Japanese stock market.

Asian Markets Decline Following Federal Reserve Minutes, with China at the Forefront

Asian Markets Decline Following Federal Reserve Minutes, with China at the Forefront

In the Asian financial markets, stocks experienced a downturn, with China’s market fragility contributing significantly to the cautious sentiment following revelations from the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. These minutes indicated a likelihood of persistently high interest rates, dampening investor enthusiasm.

As this information settled, a key index tracking Asian stocks continued its decline, marking a third consecutive session of losses. This downtrend was mirrored across various major markets from Australia to South Korea, with Chinese stocks notably experiencing a three-day downward trajectory. Even Japan’s Topix Index, which saw initial gains in its first trading session of the new year following a holiday break, could not escape the overall bearish mood and reversed its early gains.

In the United States, futures remained unchanged during Asian trading hours, reflecting the hesitation in the markets after the S&P 500 concluded Wednesday with a 0.8% decrease. This downturn extends a series of losses initiated in the last trading session of 2023. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 witnessed a 1.1% drop, marking its fourth consecutive day of declines and the longest losing streak observed in two months.

The focus of investors is now shifting to the forthcoming US employment data expected to be released on Friday. This anticipation is heightened by the Fed’s December meeting minutes, which implied that interest rates might maintain their restrictive levels for an extended period. This has led to a recalibration of expectations among swaps traders, who have tempered their projections for rate cuts, now anticipating a quarter-point reduction to the benchmark rate by the March meeting.

Market analysts, like Jun Rong Yeap of IG Asia Pte, suggest that the prevailing risk-on rally might need a pause. The retreat from previously bullish sentiments on Wall Street, coupled with a strengthening US dollar and increasing oil prices, are posited as potential headwinds for Asian equity markets. As investors digest these developments, the cautious tone in the Asian markets reflects broader concerns over global economic stability and the anticipation of policy directions from key central banks.

Stock Futures Creep Upward in 2023’s Final Trading Session as S&P 500 Nears Record High

Stock Futures Creep Upward in 2023’s Final Trading Session as S&P 500 Nears Record High

As the final trading day of 2023 dawned, stock futures edged higher, signaling a potentially strong year-end close with the S&P 500 flirting with a record high. S&P 500 futures climbed by 0.1%, with a similar modest increase seen in the Nasdaq-100 futures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures inched up 28 points, reflecting a subdued optimism in the market. The S&P 500, less than 0.5% away from a new record, hinted at a year capped by a robust rally, particularly reinforced in the year’s final months.

This year has been marked by a remarkable recovery and resilience in stock markets. The Federal Reserve’s indication of a halt in rate hikes and the potential for rate cuts in the upcoming year catalyzed a shift in sentiment. This was evidenced by the 10-year Treasury yield’s significant drop from over 5% to under 3.9%. The prospect of a ‘soft landing’ for the U.S. economy, averting a recession, has further buoyed investors’ confidence, contributing to a broadening market rally in the fourth quarter.

December has been notably strong for smaller companies, with the Russell 2000 index surging nearly 14%, setting it on course for its best month since November 2020. This broadening rally is not just confined to small caps; the industrial-heavy Dow has also been hitting a series of record highs. According to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, a surge of 10% or more in the final two months historically suggests a bullish outlook for stocks into the new year.

The year 2023 has seen impressive gains across major indexes. The S&P 500 is up by 24.6%, while the Dow has risen by 13.8%. However, the Nasdaq Composite has been the standout, with a 44.2% increase, driven significantly by the booming artificial intelligence sector. This has been the index’s best performance since 2003, largely attributed to substantial gains in tech giants such as Nvidia and Microsoft, dubbed the “Magnificent 7.” These companies have thrived amidst the year’s challenges, including heightened interest rates, by leveraging the AI wave, thus pushing the tech-heavy Nasdaq to outperform.

In summary, as 2023 wraps up, Wall Street is witnessing a potentially historic close, buoyed by strategic rate decisions, a resilient economy, and a tech-led rally. While the future remains uncertain, the current trajectory and historical patterns suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, offering a hopeful outlook for investors as they step into the new year.

 

Decline in Asian Stock Markets as Wall Street Pullback Concludes Historic Surge

Decline in Asian Stock Markets as Wall Street Pullback Concludes Historic Surge

The recent downturn in Asian stock markets marks a significant shift from the record highs that Wall Street had been experiencing, signaling a more cautious stance from investors. The pullback reflects a recalibration of expectations following a series of less-than-stellar corporate earnings reports and growing concerns that the market’s accelerated growth might not be sustainable. 

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index suffered a 1.6% decline, closing at 33,140.47. The downward trend was led by Toyota, the prominent Japanese automaker, which witnessed a drop of up to 4% in its stock value. This decline was, in part, a reaction to the company’s announcement of a major recall involving 1 million vehicles due to a malfunctioning airbag issue, which increased the potential risk of injuries to passengers.

This news was compounded by revelations that Daihatsu, a subsidiary of Toyota specializing in small cars, had halted vehicle shipments both domestically and internationally. An investigation had uncovered inadequate safety testing for 64 car models, some of which were manufactured for other major brands like Mazda and Subaru. The seriousness of the situation was underscored by a raid conducted by Japanese transport ministry officials on Daihatsu’s offices.

Elsewhere in the region, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index slipped by 0.5% to 7,504.10, while South Korea’s Kospi index saw a reduction of 0.6%, ending at 2,600.02. In contrast, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong remained relatively unchanged, and the Shanghai Composite in mainland China actually posted a gain of 0.6%.

In South Asia, India’s benchmark Sensex index edged up by 0.2%, and a similar modest uptick was observed in Bangkok’s SET index.

The pullback in Asia came in the wake of significant losses on Wall Street, where approximately 95% of the companies listed on the S&P 500 experienced a decline. The S&P 500 itself fell by 1.5%, marking its most substantial loss since the beginning of a notable rally pre-Halloween. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq composite also faced sharp declines.

One of the key contributors to the bearish sentiment was FedEx, which saw its shares plummet by 12.1% after the company reported revenue and profits for the latest quarter that fell short of analysts’ expectations. This shortfall was attributed to weaker demand, which also led FedEx to revise its full fiscal year revenue projections downwards. Such indicators from a global logistics bellwether like FedEx tend to have broad market implications, hinting at potential softening in worldwide commerce.

However, not all news was negative, as the U.S. economy showed some signs of resilience. Consumer confidence figures and home sales data were more robust than anticipated, which could suggest an underlying strength in the economy. Moreover, there are emerging signs that inflation, a key concern for markets worldwide, may be abating. In the United Kingdom, inflation rates showed an unexpected deceleration, bolstering hope that the Bank of England, alongside other central banks, might ease up on aggressive interest rate hikes in the near future.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields saw minor fluctuations, with the 10-year Treasury note inching up slightly. Oil prices experienced a minor dip, and currency markets saw the U.S. dollar weakening against the Japanese yen, while the euro saw a marginal increase.

As the global economy continues to navigate a landscape of high inflation, potential recessions, and geopolitical uncertainties, the Asian market’s response to these dynamics will be closely watched by investors around the world.

Alphabet’s Stock Surges Due to AI

Alphabet’s Stock Surges Due to AI

Alphabet Inc., the parent company of the search engine behemoth Google, has been making headlines with its stock (NASDAQ: GOOGL)(NASDAQ: GOOG) experiencing a notable surge, closing Monday’s trading session with a 2.4% increase, as reported by S&P Global Market Intelligence. This uptick is part of a larger trend within the technology sector, particularly among companies heavily invested in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Alphabet’s recent gains are a testament to the growing confidence among investors in the AI sphere, and 2023 has been a year of significant progress for the company’s stock value.

With AI becoming increasingly central to technological advancement and economic growth, Alphabet’s role as a forerunner in web-search services has positioned it to capitalize on these developments significantly. The integration of AI into its search and digital advertising mechanisms has been instrumental in boosting the company’s market performance. However, Alphabet’s potential in AI extends far beyond Google’s search capabilities.

Alphabet’s diverse portfolio, which includes leadership in mobile operating system software with Android, cloud infrastructure services, and video streaming via platforms like YouTube, provides a multitude of avenues through which the company can harness AI. This broad spectrum of products and services not only fortifies Alphabet’s market presence but also presents numerous opportunities for AI integration, enhancing efficiency and creating new user experiences.

The data-rich environment fostered by Alphabet’s numerous platforms is particularly conducive to AI development. The vast data pools collected are invaluable for training sophisticated AI algorithms, leading to more personalized services and innovative solutions that could define the future of technology.

Investors are taking note of Alphabet’s trajectory in AI and its broader implications for the tech industry. Despite a 54% rise in stock value throughout 2023, Alphabet still presents an attractive proposition for long-term investors. Currently trading at approximately 20 times the forecasted earnings for the next year, the company’s stock offers a potentially lucrative investment for those who adopt a buy-and-hold strategy.

Moreover, Alphabet’s robust infrastructure and unparalleled data analytics capabilities give it a competitive edge in the AI race. While the full scope of Alphabet’s ability to leverage these strengths in AI is yet to unfold fully, its current position in the tech landscape remains robust.

For those investors looking to capitalize on the burgeoning AI and tech sectors, Alphabet’s stock is a compelling option. Despite recent gains, the company’s forward-thinking approach and solid financials suggest that its stock may continue to be a strong performer, making it a potentially sound addition to a diversified investment portfolio.

Dow, S&P Hit Peak Since Jan ’22 as Stocks Rally Before Fed

Dow, S&P Hit Peak Since Jan ’22 as Stocks Rally Before Fed

On Tuesday, U.S. stock markets demonstrated a robust performance, with major indices climbing to their highest points since the early days of 2023. This market buoyancy comes as investors digest a pivotal inflation report ahead of the Federal Reserve’s year-end policy meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged, closing up by approximately half a percent. This increase, amounting to over 150 points, marked the index’s third-highest closure in its history. Similarly, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index saw a rise of about 0.5%, securing its strongest close since January 14, 2022. Not to be outdone, the Nasdaq Composite Index, known for its tech-centric stock listing, led the charge with an increase of roughly 0.6%. This collective ascent brought all three indices to their most elevated closing levels since the commencement of 2022.

Amid this bullish context, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) offered a tempered view on inflation. The report, as detailed by Yahoo Finance’s Alexandra Canal, indicated a modest uptick in consumer prices by 0.1% month-over-month and by 3.1% compared to the previous year, as of November. This marginal rise suggests a relatively stable pricing environment.

Investor sentiment has coalesced around the expectation of a hiatus in the Fed’s interest rate hikes, with the anticipation peaking as the central bank’s two-day assembly approached on Tuesday. Scrutiny has turned to CME FedWatch data, revealing a recalibration of market predictions, with reduced forecasting of a rate decrease in March.

The anticipation extends to the implications of a Federal Reserve rate-hike pause for various financial instruments and services, including bank accounts, certificates of deposit, loans, and credit cards. This pause is critical to financial planning and decision-making for both individual consumers and businesses.

However, core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, may present a more stubborn front, potentially altering investor expectations on the timeline for rate reductions by the Fed.

In the aftermath of the inflation report, there was a slight pullback in U.S. bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield witnessed a minor decline, dropping around three basis points to hover near 4.21%. This movement in bond yields is a barometer of investor sentiment, reflecting subtle shifts in market expectations regarding inflation and central bank policy.

Among individual companies, Oracle Corporation’s stock experienced a significant downturn, closing down over 12%. The sell-off was triggered by the technology behemoth’s

Indian Stock Market Remains Steady as Adani and Energy Sector Gains Balance Out Decline in IT Shares

Indian Stock Market Remains Steady as Adani and Energy Sector Gains Balance Out Decline in IT Shares

The Indian stock market showcased a balancing act on Tuesday, with stability being the theme of the day, as the gain in key players from the Adani Group and the broader energy sector managed to counterbalance the decline observed in the information technology sector, following its prior surge.

The National Stock Exchange’s benchmark Nifty 50 index saw a marginal uptick of 0.06% reaching 19,807.15 points. In a parallel trend, the Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex experienced a slight dip of 0.06%, settling at 65,932.97 by mid-morning. This equilibrium was attributed to gains in nine out of thirteen industry sectors, with the metals sector outshining the rest by recording a 1.1% gain. This was propelled significantly by Adani Enterprises, which holds a substantial influence on the index with a 16.43% weightage.

A spotlight shone on Adani Enterprises along with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone as they led the charge among the Nifty 50, soaring by 7% and 3.6% respectively. The Adani group as a whole witnessed an appreciable increase in their stock prices, which ranged from 3% to 15% over the course of the day. These movements came in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to hold its judgment on a series of petitions that demanded a court-supervised investigation into allegations brought forward by Hindenburg Research against the conglomerate, allegations which Adani has rebuffed.

Further assurance to investors was provided when the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) declared that it would not seek additional time to conclude its inquiry into the Adani group. Market analysts interpret the rally in Adani’s stocks as a sign of confidence among investors, indicating that no substantial adverse findings have emerged from SEBI’s investigation into the claims made by Hindenburg Research. Avinash Gorakshakar, the head of research at Profit mart Securities, voiced a note of caution regarding the sustainability of this significant uptick in Adani’s shares.

The energy sector, along with oil and gas, each ascended nearly 1%, a rise that coincided with the softening of oil prices to around $80 per barrel. This price adjustment comes just before the scheduled conference of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies. Such a decline in oil prices generally spells good news for nations that import oil, like India, and the companies within it that market oil.

In contrast, the IT sector did not share the same fortune, receding by 0.6% on Tuesday. This sector had previously leaped by 5.07% in the week that ended on November 17, buoyed by milder U.S. inflation data which fueled speculation about a potential halt to interest rate hikes. However, the following week saw the index give up some of those gains, falling by 0.42%. The mixed outcomes across sectors reflect the complex interplay of global economic cues, sector-specific dynamics, and regulatory developments within the Indian stock market landscape.

WTI Trades with Modest Losses Below $77.00, Downside Potential Limited

WTI Trades with Modest Losses Below $77.00, Downside Potential Limited

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are struggling to build on the previous day’s rebound from weekly lows, trading with a slight negative bias during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity is currently around the $76.70 mark, down 0.25% for the day, but remains poised for modest gains for the second consecutive week.
The risk of supply disruptions remains high due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, strong US macroeconomic data released on Thursday has eased concerns about a downturn in the world’s largest economy. This, coupled with expectations that potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could stimulate economic activity and increase fuel consumption, may continue to support crude oil prices.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is struggling to maintain the positive momentum it gained after the previous day’s data, amid speculation that the Fed might begin its rate-cutting cycle in September. The prevailing risk-on sentiment is also weighing on the safe-haven Greenback, which typically boosts demand for USD-denominated commodities like crude oil.

However, investor concerns about an economic slowdown in China, the world’s largest oil importer, persist. This is compounded by recent downgrades in oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 from both OPEC and the IEA. Additionally, an unexpected build in US oil inventories, indicating a potential cooling in demand, is acting as a headwind for crude oil prices, exerting downward pressure as the week comes to a close.

Oil Retreats as Markets Shift Focus to Demand Concerns

Oil Retreats as Markets Shift Focus to Demand Concerns

Oil prices declined on Tuesday, ending a five-day rally as the market shifted its focus back to concerns over demand, following OPEC’s recent downward revision of its 2024 demand growth forecast due to weaker expectations in China.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures dropped by 57 cents, or 0.7%, to $81.73 a barrel at 0630 GMT. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 48 cents, or 0.6%, to $79.58 a barrel.

On Monday, Brent crude had surged by more than 3%, while U.S. crude futures had risen over 4%.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its global demand forecast for 2024 downward for the first time since July 2023, citing weaker demand indicators from China, including declining diesel consumption and a slowing property sector in the world’s second-largest economy. This revision poses a challenge for the broader OPEC+ group, which is set to increase production starting in October.

“Demand concerns for crude oil remain a significant factor,” said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG. He noted that apprehensions persist ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data, adding that any indication of rising economic risks could further pressure oil prices. With OPEC+ scaling back production cuts and reducing their demand forecast for 2024, there may be signs of a less constrained oil market in the near future.

Geopolitical tensions, however, continue to keep investors on edge. The situation in the Middle East has intensified, with the U.S. warning of potential significant attacks by Iran or its proxies in the region as early as this week. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby highlighted the possibility of such events on Monday. Any escalation could disrupt global crude supplies and drive prices higher. Analysts also pointed out that an attack could prompt the U.S. to impose embargoes on Iranian crude exports, potentially impacting 1.5 million barrels per day of supply.

Markets are also bracing for the release of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report on Wednesday, which is expected to provide crucial insights into inflation trends. Investors are concerned that a significantly lower CPI reading could amplify fears of an economic downturn. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, money markets are currently evenly split on the likelihood of a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of a total easing of 100 basis points by the end of 2024. Rate cuts typically boost economic activity, leading to increased demand for energy sources like oil.

Gold Price Near Two-Week High Amid Upbeat Market Mood

Gold Price Near Two-Week High Amid Upbeat Market Mood

During the Asian session on Thursday, the gold price (XAU/USD) maintained a positive bias and remained just below the nearly two-week high reached the previous day. However, the strong bullish sentiment across global equity markets acted as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal, particularly amid the relatively thin liquidity caused by the Independence Day holiday in the US. Traders appeared cautious and preferred to wait for the release of the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday before making new directional bets.

Despite this, the near-term outlook for gold seems favorable for bullish traders. There is a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates this year, which should support the non-yielding gold price. This sentiment is reinforced by softer US macroeconomic data published on Wednesday and the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The minutes revealed that most policymakers believe US economic growth is gradually cooling. This has strengthened the expectation that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in September and December, keeping the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and lending support to gold.

In addition to these factors, persistent geopolitical risks continue to validate the positive outlook for gold. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, and political uncertainty in the US and Europe all contribute to the demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, the overnight breakout through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicates that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD is to the upside.

The anticipation of the NFP report has made traders cautious, but the broader market sentiment leans towards a bullish trend for gold. Should the US employment data support the view of a slowing economy, it could further solidify expectations of Fed rate cuts, providing additional upward momentum for gold.

In summary, while global equity market strength and cautious trading ahead of the NFP report may limit immediate gains, the overall outlook for gold remains positive. The combination of anticipated Fed rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and technical indicators suggests that the gold price is likely to continue its upward trajectory in the near term.

Gold Holds Steady Below 50-Day SMA, Awaits Fed Chair Powell’s Speech

Gold Holds Steady Below 50-Day SMA, Awaits Fed Chair Powell’s Speech

Gold prices (XAU/USD) faced fresh selling pressure during the Asian session on Tuesday, reversing the previous day’s gains and approaching the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a significant resistance level. The US Dollar (USD) gained traction as investors awaited more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut path, contributing to the downward pressure on gold. Additionally, a generally positive tone in the equity markets diverted flows away from the safe-haven precious metal.

Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of the Fed lowering borrowing costs in September and again in December. This expectation was bolstered by the US ISM PMI report released on Monday, which indicated that the manufacturing sector contracted for the third consecutive month in June. Prices paid by factories for inputs also dropped to a six-month low. Despite this, retreating US Treasury bond yields might limit the USD’s gains, potentially offering some support to gold prices. Furthermore, China’s economic challenges, geopolitical risks, and political uncertainty could also lend support to the precious metal.

Traders are likely to adopt a cautious stance ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later on Tuesday and the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. These events are expected to provide further insights into the Fed’s future policy direction. Additionally, the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due on Friday, will be critical in shaping expectations about the Fed’s next moves. The outcome of these key events will significantly influence market sentiment towards the USD and help determine the next directional move for gold prices.

In summary, gold prices are currently under pressure due to a stronger USD and positive equity market sentiment. However, the potential for future Fed rate cuts, economic uncertainties in China, and geopolitical risks could provide some support. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming speeches and reports for further guidance on the Fed’s policy, which will play a crucial role in the near-term outlook for gold prices.

WTI Falls Below $80 on Unexpected US Crude Stockpile Increase

WTI Falls Below $80 on Unexpected US Crude Stockpile Increase

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edged lower to around $80.30 during the Asian session on Thursday, retreating further from a two-month high of $81.65. This decline was primarily driven by a surprise increase in US crude stockpiles, which raised concerns about weakening demand in the world’s top oil consumer.

On Wednesday, data from the US Energy Information Administration revealed that US crude oil stockpiles rose by 3.591 million barrels for the week ending June 21. This increase was contrary to market expectations, which had anticipated a 3.000 million-barrel decline. The unexpected build in inventories has put downward pressure on oil prices, signaling potential issues with demand.

Adding to the complexity, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine have the potential to influence oil prices further. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the most “intense” phase of the attack against Hamas in Gaza is nearing its end. Meanwhile, Russia condemned the US for a “barbaric” strike in Crimea, which utilized US-provided missiles. This attack resulted in the deaths of at least four people, including children, and injured 151 others. Such geopolitical conflicts can lead to supply disruptions, which typically drive oil prices higher, but current market conditions are dominated by the inventory build.

In a contrasting development, US crude oil imports surged last month to their highest level in nearly two years. Refiners have been acquiring heavy crudes from Canada and Latin America to produce fuels for the summer driving season. In May, US crude oil imports reached 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest since July 2022, according to ship tracking service Kpler. This trend has continued into June, with imports averaging around 2.9 million bpd, as reported by Reuters.

Despite the geopolitical tensions and increased imports, the immediate focus remains on the unexpected rise in US crude stockpiles, which suggests potential softness in demand. This scenario has led to a cautious outlook in the market, with traders and analysts closely monitoring inventory levels and geopolitical developments for future price movements.

In summary, WTI crude oil prices have softened due to an unexpected build in US crude inventories, overshadowing geopolitical tensions and robust import levels. The market remains vigilant, assessing how these factors will balance out in the coming weeks.

Gold Price Dips Amid Cautious Federal Reserve Comments

Gold Price Dips Amid Cautious Federal Reserve Comments

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are seeing a rise in Tuesday’s trading, maintaining a positive trajectory despite a downtrend in the U.S. dollar. This uplift in gold is somewhat constrained by recent remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. After last week’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Fed policymakers have indicated a delay in anticipated interest rate cuts for the year, putting pressure on gold’s potential gains. However, the precious metal may find support from increased safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, which could drive its value up in the near term.

Investor attention is set to focus on upcoming speeches by Fed members. Both Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman are slated to address the public on Tuesday, and their comments are eagerly awaited for indications of the Fed’s future monetary policy direction. This week is also significant for U.S. economic data, with the final reading of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) due on Thursday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for May, scheduled for release on Friday. These data points are crucial as they provide insights into the economic health of the nation.

Any signs from these economic releases that suggest a slowing of inflation could alter market expectations, potentially leading to predictions of Fed rate cuts later in 2024. Such developments would likely weaken the U.S. dollar, subsequently providing a boost to USD-denominated gold. As markets digest these economic indicators and Fed communications, the trajectory of gold prices will depend heavily on the interplay between U.S. monetary policy expectations and global geopolitical dynamics. Investors will need to stay tuned to these key economic events and policy signals to gauge the future direction of gold prices effectively.

Australian Dollar Dips Amid Renewed US Dollar Demand

Australian Dollar Dips Amid Renewed US Dollar Demand

On Thursday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced losses, trading in negative territory. Despite this, the currency’s downside may be limited due to the hawkish stance taken by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) during its June meeting earlier this week. The RBA’s firm approach suggests that they are not ready to ease monetary policy soon, which could provide some support for the AUD.

Contributing to the dynamics between the AUD and USD is the recent weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data. This data has fueled speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider rate cuts later this year, potentially weakening the Greenback and benefiting the AUD/USD pair. The anticipation of lower US interest rates could create a supportive environment for the Australian Dollar, as investors might seek higher returns elsewhere.

However, the RBA’s statement also highlighted the uncertainties in the economic outlook. The central bank acknowledged that the journey to bring inflation down to its target would not be straightforward. This acknowledgment of economic challenges suggests that the RBA remains cautious about the future, which might temper some of the positive impacts on the AUD.

Traders are also closely watching the upcoming preliminary data for Australia’s Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May, set to be released on Friday. This PMI data will provide insights into the health of the Australian economy. Any indications of recovery or improvement in the PMI could influence the RBA’s decisions regarding future rate cuts. A stronger-than-expected PMI might prompt the RBA to hold off on reducing rates, which could, in turn, bolster the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar.

In summary, while the Australian Dollar faces some pressure, the RBA’s hawkish stance and the potential for US Fed rate cuts provide a mixed outlook. The upcoming PMI data will be crucial for traders, as it will offer further direction on the economic trajectory and the RBA’s monetary policy decisions. The interplay of these factors will continue to shape the AUD/USD pair’s performance in the near term.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pairs location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

US Data and Trump Drive Sentiment in the FX Market

The US Dollar Index (DXY) managed to recover some ground, though a breakout above the 108.00 level remains out of reach for now. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims take the spotlight alongside the EIA’s report on US crude oil inventories, providing key cues for market sentiment.

The EUR/USD rally lost steam after reaching multi-week highs above the 1.0400 level. Meanwhile, the European Commission is set to release its preliminary Consumer Confidence data for January, which could influence further movement in the pair.

The GBP/USD pair traded lower as the modest recovery in the US Dollar applied pressure. Focus shifts to the UK’s CBI Business Optimism Index and CBI Industrial Trends Orders, which will offer fresh insights into the country’s economic outlook.

The USD/JPY pair remained volatile, climbing above the 156.00 level as investors positioned themselves ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) January 24 meeting. In the meantime, upcoming Trade Balance data and Foreign Bond Investment figures will be closely monitored.

The AUD/USD pair saw another indecisive session, trading near the critical 0.6300 level. Attention now turns to Australia’s preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which will be key for determining near-term market direction.

Commodity Market Highlights

  • WTI crude oil prices extended their decline, revisiting the $75.00 per barrel level as markets continued to digest the implications of President Trump’s policies.
  • Gold prices rose for the third consecutive session, exceeding $2,760 per troy ounce amid heightened uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s announcements.
  • Silver prices faced selling pressure after failing to break above the $31.00 per ounce threshold, reflecting mixed sentiment in the precious metals market.

The FX market remains heavily influenced by US data releases and evolving geopolitical developments, with Trump’s policies adding another layer of volatility.

USD/JPY Climbs Toward 156.00 as Japanese Yen Maintains Intraday Weakness

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens broadly during Wednesday’s Asian trading session, allowing the USD/JPY pair to extend its recovery from over a one-month low. A risk-on sentiment, reflected in positive equity market performance, undermines the safe-haven JPY. Additionally, a modest uptick in US Treasury bond yields supports the US Dollar (USD), further pressuring the lower-yielding JPY.

Despite the JPY’s current softness, meaningful depreciation remains constrained by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce an interest rate hike following its two-day policy meeting concluding Thursday. Conversely, market bets on two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year could weigh on US bond yields and the USD, urging caution before confirming a near-term bottom for the USD/JPY pair.

Japanese Yen Bulls Remain Cautious Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Hawkish commentary from BoJ officials, combined with optimism about wage growth sustaining Japan’s 2% inflation target, bolsters the case for a rate hike. BoJ policymakers have reiterated that widespread, sustained wage increases are a prerequisite for tightening monetary policy.

On Wednesday, labor negotiations between Japan’s largest business lobby, Keidanren, and trade unions commenced, with expectations for significant wage hikes. These developments align with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s focus on achieving wage growth surpassing inflation, an integral part of his economic strategy. Markets are pricing in a more than 90% probability that the BoJ will increase interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5%—a level unseen since the 2008 global financial crisis.

US Factors: Tariff Talk and Inflation Expectations

US President Donald Trump has hinted at imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico as early as February, alongside the possibility of broader tariff measures. While these tariffs could hinder economic growth, they also have the potential to increase inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy outlook.

Meanwhile, recent US inflation data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), indicates easing inflationary pressures, strengthening expectations for two additional Fed rate cuts in 2025.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Key Levels

The USD/JPY pair has rebounded from a one-month low near the 154.75 level and is testing the 155.00 psychological barrier. Oscillators on the daily chart lack negative momentum, suggesting caution for bearish traders.

  • Support Levels: A sustained break below 155.00 could lead to further declines toward 154.50-154.45, with potential extensions to 154.00, mid-153.00s, and 153.00.
  • Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is seen near the 156.00 mark, followed by the 156.25 region (overnight swing high) and the weekly top at 156.55-156.60. A sustained move beyond these levels could open the door to 157.00, 157.25-157.30, and 158.00, with a potential retest of the multi-month peak near 159.00.

Japanese Yen Trims Intraday Gains Against USD; Bullish Momentum Persists

The Japanese Yen (JPY) holds its ground against the US Dollar (USD) in the European session, trading just below the one-month high reached earlier on Tuesday. Renewed fears of a global trade war, sparked by US President Donald Trump’s tariff comments, coupled with expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike later this week, underpin the JPY’s strength as a safe-haven currency.

Factors Supporting the Japanese Yen
US Treasury bond yields have extended a week-long decline amid expectations of two Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year. This narrowing of the US-Japan rate differential provides additional support to the JPY. However, the USD/JPY pair has rebounded over 50 pips from its intraday low of 154.75, buoyed by a modest recovery in the USD after its overnight drop to a two-week low.

BoJ Rate Hike Expectations Drive Sentiment
Hawkish signals from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, alongside rising inflationary pressures in Japan, have significantly bolstered market expectations for a BoJ rate hike. The probability of a rate increase at this week’s policy meeting stands at 80%. Reports suggest the BoJ will finalize its decision after closely analyzing economic data, market trends, and the potential implications of US economic policies.

Trump’s Trade Policies Add to Volatility
President Trump’s announcement of impending 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, effective as early as February, has reignited concerns about global trade tensions. He further warned of potential tariffs on China if it fails to approve a TikTok deal. These developments revive inflation concerns, which could push the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance and support a USD rebound from its recent lows.

Comments from Japanese Officials
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reaffirmed the BoJ’s commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target while emphasizing the importance of assessing US economic policies’ global impact. Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura also highlighted the need to monitor China’s export strength and its influence on Japan’s economy.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch for USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair remains resilient above the 155.00 level, with the lower boundary of a multi-month ascending channel providing support. A confirmed breakdown below this level is essential for bears to gain control. A slide below 154.50-154.45 could accelerate losses toward the 154.00, mid-153.00s, and ultimately the 153.00 region.

On the upside, the 156.25 mark serves as the immediate resistance. A break above the overnight high at 156.58-156.60 could pave the way for a recovery to 157.00. Sustained momentum beyond 157.30 may target the 157.60 and 158.00 levels, with potential for retesting the multi-month high of 159.00 recorded on January 10.

Outlook
With no significant economic data releases on Tuesday from either Japan or the US, market focus remains on the BoJ’s two-day policy meeting beginning Thursday. This event is expected to shape the near-term direction of the Japanese Yen. In the meantime, trade war fears and shifting expectations for US and Japanese monetary policies continue to drive market dynamics.

US Core PCE Inflation Likely to Hold Steady, Casting Doubt on Additional Fed Rate Cuts

US Core PCE Inflation Likely to Hold Steady, Casting Doubt on Additional Fed Rate Cuts

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release October’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. As the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, this data will provide insights into the trajectory of inflation and its potential impact on monetary policy decisions.

This release coincides with a busy macroeconomic calendar due to the Thanksgiving holiday, including Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and the second estimate of Q3 GDP. The overlapping reports may dilute the immediate market impact of the PCE data on the US Dollar (USD).

Core PCE Inflation Outlook

The core PCE Price Index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month (m/m) in October, matching September’s increase. Annually, core PCE inflation is forecasted to edge higher to 2.8% from 2.7%, while the headline annual PCE inflation may rise to 2.3% from 2.1%.

Fed’s Perspective on Inflation

At its November meeting, the Fed reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5%-4.75%, signaling inflation had “made progress” toward the 2% target. However, policymakers noted limited movement in core PCE inflation over recent months, raising questions about the pace of further rate adjustments.

TD Securities predicts headline PCE inflation to rise 0.27% m/m, with core PCE at 0.31% m/m, and supercore inflation (services excluding housing) accelerating to 0.39% m/m. Consumer spending, a key economic driver, is projected to increase just 0.3% m/m in nominal terms, showing muted real growth.

Market Implications and Risks

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool suggests a 41% probability of the Fed maintaining its current policy rate at the December meeting. This highlights the USD’s two-way risk heading into the release.

A stronger-than-expected PCE print could reignite hawkish speculation, potentially lifting the USD and pressuring equities. Conversely, weaker data might bolster the case for additional rate cuts, dampening the USD.

Key Takeaways for Markets

  • Inflation Stickiness: Any upward surprise in core PCE could challenge the Fed’s easing trajectory.
  • Consumer Spending Concerns: Sluggish spending data may hint at broader economic headwinds.
  • Two-Way Risks: Traders must navigate mixed signals from inflation, growth, and employment metrics, making the USD’s reaction to the PCE data less predictable.

This report will provide critical clues as markets evaluate whether inflation’s progress aligns with the Fed’s expectations and assess the likelihood of further monetary easing heading into 2024.

Australian Dollar Holds Steady After Initial Gains Amid Stable US Dollar

Australian Dollar Holds Steady After Initial Gains Amid Stable US Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) maintained a steady position on Monday after paring earlier gains as the US Dollar (USD) continued to undergo a corrective pullback. The USD’s downward trajectory was partly driven by optimism in bond markets following President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent, known for his fiscal conservatism and Wall Street experience, contributed to improved market sentiment.

Key Drivers for AUD Strength:

  1. Global and Domestic Market Optimism:
    • The AUD benefited from robust foreign inflows as Australia’s equity markets surged to record highs.
    • The S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.63% to exceed 8,450 points, mirroring Wall Street’s rally, with the Dow Jones closing at record highs on Friday.
  2. Hawkish RBA Outlook:
    • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reinforced its commitment to restrictive monetary policy until inflation sustainably aligns with its target range.
    • The RBA emphasized a data-dependent approach for future decisions, keeping markets attentive to incoming economic indicators.
  3. Upcoming Domestic Data Focus:
    • Traders are eyeing Australia’s October Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a pivotal release that could influence expectations regarding the RBA’s next policy moves.

Outlook for the AUD/USD Pair:
While the AUD finds support from improved risk sentiment and a steady RBA stance, its trajectory will largely depend on upcoming data releases and broader USD dynamics. A sustained rally in Australian equities and solid inflation data could further strengthen the currency, while any shifts in global risk appetite or USD recovery may temper its gains.

Markets remain focused on domestic CPI figures and potential updates from the US Federal Reserve, both of which will play a crucial role in determining the near-term path of the AUD/USD exchange

UK CPI Expected to Accelerate in October, Reducing Odds of Further BoE Rate Cuts

UK CPI Expected to Accelerate in October, Reducing Odds of Further BoE Rate Cuts

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT. This inflation report is pivotal for determining the Bank of England’s (BoE) future interest rate policy and could significantly impact the Pound Sterling’s trajectory.

Key Expectations for UK CPI Data

  • Annual Headline CPI: Expected to rise to 2.2% in October from 1.7% in September, moving back above the BoE’s 2.0% target.
  • Core CPI Inflation: Forecasted to ease slightly to 3.1% YoY from 3.2% in September.
  • Services Inflation: Anticipated to edge lower to 4.8% YoY from 4.9%, aligning closely with the BoE’s 5.0% projection.
  • Monthly CPI: Projected to increase by 0.5% after a flat 0% reading in September.

Societe Generale analysts attribute the expected headline CPI rise to base effects and higher utility prices, noting that services inflation could climb slightly to 5% YoY, though downside risks remain.

Impact on BoE Policy and GBP/USD

Following its November 7 decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%, the BoE emphasized a cautious approach to future rate adjustments, maintaining a restrictive stance to ensure inflation returns sustainably to its 2.0% target.

  • Higher-than-Expected CPI: Would likely reduce market expectations of further rate cuts and could provide a boost to the Pound Sterling. GBP/USD may see a recovery from recent six-week lows, with the pair testing resistance levels.
  • Lower-than-Expected CPI: Could reinforce the case for continued BoE easing, weighing heavily on GBP/USD and potentially pushing the pair toward the 1.2500 psychological level.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey recently highlighted inflationary pressures from the Labour government’s tax policies, reinforcing the central bank’s cautious approach to monetary easing.

Technical Outlook for GBP/USD

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Upside: Immediate resistance lies at the 1.2750 level, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.2820 and the 21-day SMA at 1.2858.
  • Downside: Immediate support is seen at multi-month lows of 1.2597, with further downside potential toward the 1.2500 round level.

RSI and Moving Averages:
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, signaling persistent downside risks. Additionally, the 21-day SMA is poised to cross below the 200-day SMA, forming a bearish “Death Cross” pattern, which could amplify selling pressure.

Conclusion

The UK CPI report will play a critical role in shaping market expectations for the BoE’s monetary policy trajectory. A stronger inflation print may support a GBP/USD recovery, while weaker-than-expected data could deepen losses. Traders should also watch for additional cues from the UK Finance Minister’s Autumn Budget and BoE commentary to gauge the broader economic outlook.

Australian Dollar Holds Steady as RBA Minutes Highlight Need for Restrictive Policy

Australian Dollar Holds Steady as RBA Minutes Highlight Need for Restrictive Policy

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remained stable against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) November Meeting Minutes on Tuesday. The minutes underscored the board’s cautious stance on inflation, emphasizing the continued need for restrictive monetary policy to mitigate potential risks.

While the RBA board did not signal an “immediate need” to adjust the cash rate, it left the option open for future changes, maintaining flexibility in its policy approach. Current projections are based on the assumption that the cash rate will stay unchanged until mid-2025.

The AUD also found support from recent hawkish comments by RBA Governor Michele Bullock. Bullock stressed that interest rates are already at restrictive levels and will not be altered until the central bank is confident in the inflation outlook.

Meanwhile, developments in China—a key trading partner for Australia—add to market sentiment. On Tuesday, a senior official from China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) stated that the country has sufficient policy tools to sustain economic recovery. The official expressed optimism about the economic outlook, projecting steady recovery momentum through the remainder of the year. Changes in China’s economy often have significant implications for Australian markets due to their close trade ties.

In contrast, the US Dollar remains in a downward correction, even as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials recently delivered hawkish comments. However, the Greenback’s losses may be cushioned by expectations that the incoming Trump administration will prioritize tax cuts and higher tariffs—measures that could drive inflation and slow the pace of future Fed rate cuts.

Market participants now turn their attention to the upcoming US data on October Building Permits and Housing Starts, set for release later on Tuesday, as they seek further clarity on economic trends.

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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