US Markets Closed for Juneteenth Holiday
US Markets Closed for Juneteenth Holiday The consumer confidence of the University of Michigan was he only market relevant data release on Friday, but it brought somewhat of a mixed message, especially for bond investors. Consumers’ assessment, both on current conditions (63.9 from 59.2) and on expectations (68.0 from 64.9) printed stronger than expected but […]
Euro Rallies after ECB Raises Rates and Inflation Forecasts
Euro Rallies after ECB Raises Rates and Inflation Forecasts It was mostly a good day for the global markets, except for Europe, which saw the European Central Bank (ECB) expectedly raise interest rates by 25bp, but unexpectedly raised inflation forecast, as well. European policy makers now expect core inflation to average past the 5% mark, […]
Dollar rebounds from one / month low yen under pressure after BOJ meeting
Dollar rebounds from one/month low yen under pressure after BOJ meeting The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Friday, rebounding after hefty overnight losses following weak economic data, while the Japanese yen weakened as the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates at very low levels. At 01:45 ET (05:45 GMT), the Dollar […]
FOMC Skips June, But Signals Hikes Not Done Yet
FOMC Skips June, But Signals Hikes Not Done Yet As widely expected, the FOMC decided unanimously to refrain from raising rates at today’s meeting. However, the Committee continued to say that “additional policy firming” may be appropriate. Furthermore, the median dot for 2023 shifted up by 50 bps. That is, most FOMC members believe that […]
Dollar surges after Fed signals more rate hikes ahead
Dollar surges after Fed signals more rate hikes ahead The U.S. dollar rallied in early European trade Thursday, boosted by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish projection of more tightening this year, while the euro weakened ahead of the latest European Central Bank policy meeting. At 02:05 ET (06:05 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback […]
Today’s FOMC Will be a Key Focus for China and Hong Kong Stocks
Today’s FOMC Will be a Key Focus for China and Hong Kong Stocks China proxies; Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng TECH, and Hang Seng China Enterprises have outperformed S&P 500 & MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan since 31 May. This outperformance has been reinforced by more impending monetary policy easing measures from China’s central […]
XAU/USD defends 100-day SMA ahead of the crucial FOMC decision
XAU/USD defends 100-day SMA ahead of the crucial FOMC decision Gold price once again attracts some buyers near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Wednesday and recovers a part of the previous day’s slide to the weekly low. The XAU/USD sticks to its modest intraday gains heading into the European session and currently trades […]
US May CPI Inflation The Main Dish Today
US May CPI Inflation The Main Dish Today US stock markets retained positive momentum yesterday with the three main indices rising by 0.55% (Dow) to 1.5% (Nasdaq). The S&P 500 rose by almost 1%, closing above the August 2022 top. Tech bell weather Nasdaq cleared that same technical hurdle earlier this month. Stock markets embrace […]
Chinese Markets Unmoved By This Morning’s Price Data
Chinese Markets Unmoved By This Morning’s Price Data US weekly jobless claims, of all things, was responsible for yesterday’s main market move. Applications rose from 233k to 261k, more than the 235k expected. It triggered a US bond rally which dragged European peers higher as well. While it doesn’t change expectations for a pause at […]
Weak Chinese Trade Data Add to Growth Worries
Weak Chinese Trade Data Add to Growth Worries German Bunds outperformed US Treasuries during European trading hours following an unexpectedly strong decrease of inflation expectations in the ECB’s April Consumer Expectations Survey. The divergence between the two became even larger as US Treasuries started underperforming (especially at the front end the curve) during the US […]
Reserve Bank of Australia Raised Policy Rate Further by 25 bps
Reserve Bank of Australia Raised Policy Rate Further by 25 bps A disappointing US non-manufacturing ISM was yesterday’s defining moment for FI and FX trading. Up until the release, the post-payrolls momentum still pushed US rates and the dollar gently higher. Afterwards, intraday fortunes changes, the first Pavlov reaction didn’t really gain traction afterwards. Turning […]
GBP/USD struggles to surpass 1.2450, upside seems favored despite hawkish Fed bets improve
GBP/USD struggles to surpass 1.2450, upside seems favored despite hawkish Fed bets improve The GBP/USD pair has witnessed delicate barricades after climbing to near 1.2450 in the early European session. The Cable is expected to remain on tenterhooks as the USD Dollar Index (DXY) has attempted a recovery after dropping to near 103.81. More downside […]
FOMO Regime Change for US Stock Market
FOMO Regime Change for US Stock Market The laggards, Dow Jones Industrial Average & Russell 2000 have recorded stellar single-day outperformances on Friday, 2 June against the Nasdaq 100; at least a three-month high. Market breadth has improved but fundamental structure remains weak due to stagflation risk. Positive FOMO (“fear of missing out”) flows may […]
XAU/USD bears approach $1,930 support on upbeat US Dollar
XAU/USD bears approach $1,930 support on upbeat US Dollar Gold Price (XAU/USD) stays on the bear’s radar for the second consecutive day as the precious metal renews intraday low near $1,945, extending the post-NFP losses amid to early Monday amid firmer US Dollar and the Treasury bond yields. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) […]
EUR/USD: Planning for Friday’s NFP Volatility
EUR/USD: Planning for Friday’s NFP Volatility EUR/USD started June with a 100-pip rally after a volatile end to May. Given the selloff we saw last month, a retracement in early June was to be expected, although I did think a 1.0600 retest might come first. So what should we watch ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll […]
US and Taiwan Set to Sign the First Deal Under a New Trade Talks Framework
US and Taiwan Set to Sign the First Deal Under a New Trade Talks Framework Core bonds enjoyed another solid bid yesterday, further unwinding ‘hawkish sentiment’ that reigned since mid-May. Chinese inspired risk-off and softer than expected national CPI data from Germany (HICP 6.3% Y/Y from 7.6%) and France (6.0% from 6.9M%) supported the move. […]
What if Russia Didn’t Follow OPEC’s Output Cuts?
What if Russia Didn’t Follow OPEC’s Output Cuts? The US 2-year yield fell sharply, while the S&P500 ended flat after hitting a fresh high since last summer on optimism that the US will finally agree to raise the debt ceiling. The House will vote today to decide whether the debt limit bill gets approved at […]
One Step Closer to Debt Ceiling Deal – And a Fed Hike
One Step Closer to Debt Ceiling Deal – And a Fed Hike The holiday shortened trading week starts tense but on an optimistic note as US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finally reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling. The deal must get approval in a congressional vote on Wednesday. US […]