US and Taiwan Set to Sign the First Deal Under a New Trade Talks Framework Core bonds enjoyed another solid bid yesterday, further unwinding ‘hawkish sentiment’ that reigned since mid-May. Chinese inspired risk-off and softer than expected national CPI data
What if Russia Didn’t Follow OPEC’s Output Cuts? The US 2-year yield fell sharply, while the S&P500 ended flat after hitting a fresh high since last summer on optimism that the US will finally agree to raise the debt ceiling.
One Step Closer to Debt Ceiling Deal – And a Fed Hike The holiday shortened trading week starts tense but on an optimistic note as US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finally reached an agreement to raise
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast EUR/USD: Dollar Awaits U.S. Bankruptcy The dollar has been rising since May 4. Last week, on May 26, the DXY Index reached 104.34. It hasn’t been this high since mid-March 2023. What is driving the U.S.
US PCE Deflators and Durable Goods Orders Scheduled UK bonds crashed for a second day straight with yields adding 10.6-19.2 bps across the curve. UK money markets discount an additional 100 bps tightening by December following the big upside CPI
Fed Minutes Depict Uncertainty Surrounding Future Rate Hikes The minutes from the May 2-3 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting reiterated that curtailing inflation remains the principal objective of the Fed. On the current state of the economy, the Committee
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement May 2023 The RBNZ tightened by 25 points to 5.5 percent and expressed confidence that this will be sufficient to bring inflation back to target. We continue to see risks that the large migration surge will
Fed’s 2 Biggest Hawks Yesterday Coloured Trading The Fed’s two biggest hawks yesterday coloured trading which until then turned out to be non-directional. Kashkari from the Minneapolis Fed said it’s a close call between a pause and a hike in
EUR/USD Trying to Extend Bottoming Out U.S. Treasuries and German bunds parted ways Friday after a combined 10 basis point rise the day before. U.S. yields still rose between 1.3and 4.8 basis points, with the belly underperforming. They easily overcame
US Debt Theater: Final Act? Risk sentiment remains poor as the US couldn’t reached an agreement on its debt ceiling. But House Speaker McCarthy hinted that an agreement is possible within days. Despite both sides being far apart, everyone knows
Agreement On U.S Debt Ceiling Unlikely Before Last Minute U.S. stocks started the week on a slightly positive note after weak economic data fueled expectations of a pause by the Federal Reserve (Fed), hopes of a resolution in the debt
Euro Having Harder Time Against Both Dollar and Sterling The University of Michigan consumer confidence for the month of May unexpectedly set the tone for last week’s trading session WS. The overall indicator fell more than expected, from 63.5 to
AUD/USD Dips on Soft Retail Sales AUD/USD ends 6-day rally Australian retail sales decline Fed warns that banks are tightening credit The Australian dollar is in negative territory, ending a rally of close to 200 points. In the European session,
JPY Bearish Positioning is Getting Overstretched Better than expected US non-farm payrolls for April have failed to ignite US dollar bulls. Two outliers; the safe haven currencies, CHF and JPY underperformed against the US dollar due to the resurgence of
Will Nonfarm Payrolls Hint at a Fed Pause in June? The Federal Reserve delivered its tenth consecutive rate hike on Wednesday, as expected, but reset its guidance to indicate increased emphasis on incoming data. Hence, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will be
A Risky Lopsided US Stock Market Performance The year-to-date performance of the S&P 500 has been heavily skewed by the top 8 market cap stocks (FAANG + MNT). US regional bank fear persists despite the takeover of First Republic Bank
RBA Board Hikes the Cash Rate by 0.25% Choosing to raise is the better policy option, even if it is not consistent with our interpretation of the implicit guidelines. The Reserve Bank Board raised the policy rate by another 0.25%
Slightly Easing Price Pressures A busy week of data releases and central banks begins on a quiet note. Today we are eager to see if the US ISM manufacturing index for April reflects similar strength to previous PMIs. Early
