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Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Month

Japanese Yen Recovery from Multi-Month Low Against USD Shows Limited Bullish Commitment

Japanese Yen Recovery from Multi-Month Low Against USD Shows Limited Bullish Commitment

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has gained ground for a second consecutive day, rebounding from a recent multi-month low near 153.20 against the US Dollar (USD) reached earlier this week. This recovery follows verbal interventions by Japanese authorities, which have been instrumental in supporting the Yen. Meanwhile, US Dollar bulls have turned cautious amid a modest dip in US Treasury bond yields, adding a downward bias to the USD/JPY pair.

However, doubts about further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2024, compounded by uncertainty around upcoming elections in Japan and a drop in Tokyo’s core inflation rate below the 2% target, may limit further JPY appreciation. Additionally, a generally positive risk sentiment tempers aggressive bets on the Yen as a safe-haven asset. Concurrently, expectations of smaller rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) may continue to support the USD and curb losses for the USD/JPY pair.

Market Movers: Yen Supported by Intervention, Economic Concerns Persist

Friday’s data from the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed the headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.8% year-over-year in October, down from 2.2% in the previous month. Core CPI, excluding fresh food prices, matched market expectations at 1.8% but remained below the BoJ’s 2% target, signaling persistent economic challenges. A private-sector survey released Thursday revealed that Japan’s manufacturing and services sectors contracted in October, pointing to weak economic conditions and raising doubts about the BoJ’s potential for further rate hikes in the near term.

Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stressed the need for stable currency movements reflecting economic fundamentals, acknowledging the varied effects of a weaker Yen on the economy. Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, Atsushi Mimura, reiterated that the government closely monitors FX volatility, aiming to mitigate excess fluctuations.

The US Dollar, meanwhile, paused its recent pullback from a three-month high amid expectations of less aggressive policy easing by the Fed, lending some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders will be watching Friday’s US macro data, including Durable Goods Orders and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, as Japan’s Sunday election approaches.

Technical Outlook: Key Levels for USD/JPY

Technically, a break below the 151.60-151.55 support zone could accelerate the USD/JPY’s slide to the 151.00 level. Further declines may find support near 150.65, a confluence of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-September pullback. If this level breaks, it may signal the end of the recent rally, shifting bias toward bearish traders.

Alternatively, a move beyond 152.00 could see USD/JPY testing the 152.60-152.65 region. Continued upward momentum could allow the pair to approach the 153.00 mark and, if surpassed, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 153.20. Clearing this point would likely open the path toward further gains around the 154.00 level and the 154.30 resistance zone.

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Australian Dollar Drops on Weak GDP Data and RBA Rate Cut Bets

Australian Dollar Holds Steady as US Dollar Softens Ahead of PMI Data

Australian Dollar Holds Steady as US Dollar Softens Ahead of PMI Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, supported by the release of domestic Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. The AUD/USD pair moved higher as the USD experienced a slight dip, driven by a modest pullback in US Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year yields standing at 4.07% and 4.23%, respectively, at the time of writing.

The Australian Dollar’s performance is further bolstered by hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), underpinned by strong employment figures. Earlier in the week, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted the high labor participation rate, emphasizing that the central bank remains data-driven but not overly fixated on any single data point.

The USD, meanwhile, came under pressure following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book on Wednesday. The report noted that economic activity across the US was “little changed in nearly all Districts,” contrasting with August’s report, which had indicated growth in three Districts and stable activity in nine.

Market participants are now closely watching the release of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a key indicator of US private sector activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors, which is scheduled for Thursday.

Market Movers: Australian Dollar Gains on RBA Hawkish Sentiment

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 88.9% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.

Australia’s Judo Bank Composite PMI slightly rose to 49.8 in October from 49.6 in September, marking the second consecutive month of contraction in private sector output. The Services PMI edged up to 50.6 from 50.5, marking its ninth consecutive month of expansion, while the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 46.6 from 46.7, continuing its decline.

In a social media post, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly noted that the US economy is in a better position, with inflation significantly lower and the labor market stabilizing. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that the Fed is monitoring the labor market for signs of instability and suggested that any rate cuts will likely be gradual rather than aggressive.

China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), lowered its 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to 3.10% from 3.35% and its 5-year LPR to 3.60% from 3.85%, as expected. These cuts aim to stimulate domestic economic activity in China, which could, in turn, boost demand for Australian exports.

National Australia Bank recently revised its projection for the RBA, now expecting the first rate cut in February 2025, earlier than the previously anticipated May timeline. The bank foresees gradual cuts, with rates expected to reach 3.10% by early 2026.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar Remains Below 0.6650

The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6640 on Thursday, maintaining a bearish outlook in the short term. The pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50, reinforcing the negative sentiment.

On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may retest its two-month low of 0.6614, last seen on Wednesday. The next key support lies at the psychological level of 0.6600.

On the upside, resistance is expected at the nine-day EMA at 0.6680, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6728. A break above these levels could pave the way for a potential move toward the psychological resistance at 0.6800.

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Japanese Yen Weakens Below 152.00 Against USD, Hits Fresh Three-Month Low

Japanese Yen Weakens Below 152.00 Against USD, Hits Fresh Three-Month Low

Japanese Yen Weakens Below 152.00 Against USD, Hits Fresh Three-Month Low

The Japanese Yen (JPY) extended its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) for a third consecutive day, pushing the USD/JPY pair above the 152.00 level for the first time since late July during Wednesday’s Asian session. This recent weakness is driven by uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to raise interest rates further in 2024, a key factor in the Yen’s decline since early October.

The drop below the psychological 150.00 level earlier this month sparked verbal interventions from Japanese officials, though these efforts have done little to bolster the JPY. Even the prevailing risk-off sentiment, fueled by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has not provided the usual support for the safe-haven currency.

Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will ease its pace of rate cuts have driven US Treasury yields to a three-month high, boosting the USD. This further reinforces the outlook for continued JPY depreciation and more gains for the USD/JPY pair.

Market Movers: JPY Weakness Persists Despite Intervention Warnings

  • The Japanese Yen has fallen to its weakest level in nearly three months as doubts grow over the BoJ’s rate-hike plans.
  • Verbal interventions from Japanese authorities after the JPY fell below the key 150.00 mark have failed to reverse its downward trend.
  • Slower expected rate cuts by the Fed and concerns over increased US fiscal deficits after the upcoming presidential election have triggered a bond market selloff.
  • Yields on the 10-year US Treasury bond have reached levels not seen since July, pushing the US Dollar to its highest point since early August.
  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly highlighted that inflation has eased and the labor market is on a more sustainable path, supporting the Fed’s cautious approach.
  • Former President Donald Trump’s rising odds in the US election have led to speculation about inflation-inducing tariffs.
  • Geopolitical risks remain high as markets eye a potential Israeli strike on Iran. Hezbollah fired rockets at two bases near Tel Aviv and a naval base near Haifa on Tuesday.
  • Diplomatic efforts to resolve the year-long Middle East conflict have thus far failed, reducing investor appetite for riskier assets.
  • Traders await the US Existing Home Sales report, while the focus remains on BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s upcoming speech at the IMF-hosted “Governors Talk.”
  • Tokyo consumer inflation data, due Friday, will also be a key factor ahead of Japan’s general election on October 27 and the BoJ meeting on October 31.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Breakout Above 152.00 Signals Bullish Momentum

From a technical standpoint, the recent breakout above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) signals further bullish potential for the USD/JPY pair. Oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, suggesting the possibility of additional gains beyond the 152.00 mark. Follow-through buying could continue to drive the pair upward in line with the ongoing uptrend seen over the past month.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing overbought levels, prompting caution among aggressive bulls. A period of near-term consolidation or a modest pullback may be prudent before positioning for further appreciation.

On the downside, support is likely to be found near the 151.20-151.15 region, with a break below the 151.00 mark seen as a buying opportunity. The 150.60 level could act as a key support point, below which the pair may accelerate its decline toward the 150.00 psychological level.

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Australian Dollar Supported by Hawkish RBA Outlook

Australian Dollar Supported by Hawkish RBA Outlook, But Faces Pressure from Rising US Treasury Yields

Australian Dollar Supported by Hawkish RBA Outlook, But Faces Pressure from Rising US Treasury Yields

The Australian Dollar (AUD) regained some of its recent losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, buoyed by a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and strong domestic employment data. However, the AUD/USD pair continues to face resistance due to surging US Treasury yields, which rose by over 2% on Monday amid concerns about inflation and economic strength in the US.

The Aussie Dollar’s resilience is supported by market expectations that the RBA may maintain a tighter monetary policy in the near term, given positive labor market conditions in Australia. Additionally, China’s recent interest rate cuts have provided a boost, as the nation remains Australia’s largest trading partner, and lower borrowing costs in China could stimulate demand for Australian exports.

In contrast, the US Dollar has gained strength following economic data that suggests the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to implement a large rate cut in November. The likelihood of a modest 25-basis-point cut stands at 89.1%, with no significant expectations for a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction. Rising US bond yields, driven by stronger retail sales and a drop in initial jobless claims, further support the greenback, creating headwinds for AUD/USD.

Traders are now awaiting the release of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports from both the US and Australia on Thursday, which could shed light on the health of their respective economies and influence future monetary policy decisions.

Market Movers: Australian Dollar Declines Amid Risk Aversion

  • US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are at 4.02% and 4.19%, respectively, reflecting rising demand for US debt.
  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that the Fed is closely monitoring the labor market, signaling that rate cuts will be gradual and moderate.
  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s data-driven approach to interest rate adjustments.
  • RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, speaking at the CBA 2024 Global Markets Conference, expressed surprise at Australia’s strong employment growth, highlighting the country’s high labor participation rate.
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowered its 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to 3.10% and the 5-year LPR to 3.60%, which could boost China’s domestic economy and demand for Australian exports.
  • National Australia Bank revised its forecast, expecting the RBA’s first rate cut in February 2025, earlier than previously projected.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Faces Bearish Pressure

The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6660, close to eight-week lows. On the daily chart, the pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling a bearish short-term trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also below 50, further reinforcing this sentiment.

On the downside, the pair may test support at its eight-week low of 0.6622, with the psychological level of 0.6600 providing further support. Resistance is expected at the nine-day EMA around 0.6700, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6734. A break above these levels could pave the way for a move toward 0.6800.

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Gold Price Overbought, Bulls Should Exercise Caution Amid Renewed

Gold Price Overbought, Bulls Should Exercise Caution Amid Renewed USD Strength

Gold Price Overbought, Bulls Should Exercise Caution Amid Renewed USD Strength

Gold (XAU/USD) remains near its intraday highs through early European trading, hovering close to its all-time peak of around $2,730. The continued accommodative monetary policy environment and persistent geopolitical tensions, especially from the Middle East conflicts, support the precious metal’s upward momentum. Additionally, political uncertainty in the US has contributed to gold’s rally over the past two weeks.

Despite this, expectations of modest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are helping keep US Treasury yields elevated, which in turn strengthens the US Dollar (USD) and invites some dip-buying interest. The USD Index (DXY) is back near its recent high, the highest since early August. Combined with slightly overbought conditions in the daily gold chart, further gains for the metal could be limited.

Daily Market Movers: Gold Holds Up Despite USD Strength

  • Geopolitical risks: The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, with rising tensions between Israel and Iran adding to concerns. Israel has intensified attacks on Lebanon and Gaza, raising fears of a broader regional conflict, which supports safe-haven demand for gold.
  • US political uncertainty: Polls show a tight race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, adding further risk and boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
  • Central bank actions: The European Central Bank has recently cut interest rates for the third time this year, while the Fed and the Bank of England are expected to lower borrowing costs further, adding to the support for gold’s bullish trend.

Technical Outlook: Bulls Remain Strong, But Caution Advised

Technically, gold’s sustained strength above $2,700 signals continued bullish momentum. However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) surpassing 70, signaling overbought conditions, traders may want to wait for consolidation or a pullback before positioning for further gains. Immediate support lies at the $2,700 level, with potential downside targets around the $2,662-2,660 range and further support near $2,647-2,646. A break below these levels could accelerate selling toward $2,600.

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Japanese Yen Gains Strength Against USD Amid BoJ Policy Uncertainty

Japanese Yen Gains Traction Against USD Amid BoJ Uncertainty

Japanese Yen Gains Traction Against USD Amid BoJ Uncertainty

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is seeing an upward trend during Friday’s Asian session, partially recovering from the previous day’s losses against the US Dollar (USD), reaching its strongest level since early August. Several factors are driving the JPY’s gains, including verbal intervention from Japanese officials and stronger domestic inflation data, which could potentially prompt the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to consider rate hikes.

Contributing to the JPY’s strength is a modest pullback in the USD from its two-and-a-half-month high. However, expectations that the BoJ will refrain from raising interest rates, given signs of easing inflation and the upcoming general election on October 27, may limit the Yen’s potential gains. Additionally, the market is anticipating smaller interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which could further cap losses in the USD/JPY pair.

Key Market Movers: Verbal Intervention and Inflation Data Boost Yen

Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, Atsushi Mimura, expressed concern over the rapid and one-sided moves in the Yen, stating that excessive volatility in the currency market is undesirable. Furthermore, a government spokesperson emphasized the importance of stable currency movements that reflect economic fundamentals, signaling that authorities are closely monitoring the situation, particularly speculative moves in the market.

In addition to the intervention, government data showed a deceleration in Japan’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.5% YoY in September, while the Core CPI, excluding fresh food, eased from a 10-month high. These signs of easing inflation, coupled with opposition to rate hikes from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, raise questions about how much room the BoJ has to pursue further tightening.

Meanwhile, the Chinese economy’s 0.9% growth in the third quarter of 2024, coupled with stronger-than-expected Retail Sales and Industrial Production, had little impact on market sentiment.

On the US side, strong economic data continues to support the Greenback. Thursday’s positive US data reaffirmed market bets for a less aggressive Fed rate-cutting cycle, keeping US Treasury yields elevated, which serves as a tailwind for the USD. The USD Index (DXY) remains near its highest level since August, which could limit the USD/JPY pair’s downside potential.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Dips Toward 149.20 Present Buying Opportunities

From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the psychological 150.00 level signals renewed bullish momentum. Indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably in positive territory, with no immediate signs of being overbought, suggesting that the USD/JPY pair could continue to climb.

Any pullbacks toward the 149.20 level may be viewed as buying opportunities, with further support at the 149.00 level. Below this, the pair could see a corrective fall toward the 148.60-148.55 region and eventually test the 148.00 mark, with a key support zone around 147.35-147.30. A break below this area could shift the market bias toward bearish traders.

On the upside, a sustained move above the overnight high of 150.30 could push the pair toward the August peak at 150.85-150.90, with potential further gains beyond the 151.00 level, opening the door to a near-term rally toward 152.00.

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Crude Oil Steadies as Markets Monitor Middle East Tensions

Crude Oil Steadies as Markets Monitor Middle East Tensions and China’s Economic Outlook

Crude Oil Steadies as Markets Monitor Middle East Tensions and China’s Economic Outlook

Crude oil prices stabilized on Thursday after a four-day losing streak that resulted in a nearly 7% weekly drop. The market has found a temporary floor, with traders weighing geopolitical risks, particularly doubts over whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will honor his pledge to the U.S. not to strike Iranian oil facilities. Further support for oil came from a surprise drawdown in U.S. stock piles, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting a decrease of 1.58 million barrels for the week ending October 11, compared to expectations of a 2.3 million barrel increase.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, is bracing for a volatile session. In addition to a slew of U.S. economic data, markets are watching the European Central Bank (ECB), which is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut. With core Eurozone economies facing significant challenges, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s response to prevent further Euro weakness will be closely scrutinized.

As of this writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading at $70.00, while Brent crude is at $74.09.

Key Market Drivers

  1. China’s Economic Stimulus: China has unveiled a plan to inject 4 trillion yuan (CNY) into its housing market, although markets reacted poorly to the lower-than-expected figure, down from an earlier 6 trillion yuan estimate. The announcement has had limited impact on oil prices so far.
  2. Middle East Tensions: Pressure continues to mount on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, with growing calls within his cabinet to disregard U.S. advice and strike Iranian oil facilities. An article from an opposition leader in the Jerusalem Post urging an immediate attack has heightened tensions, according to Reuters.
  3. S. Oil Stockpiles: Later today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly oil inventory data for the week ending October 11. Analysts expect a modest build of 2.3 million barrels, following a larger-than-anticipated increase of 5.81 million barrels the previous week.

Oil Price Technical Outlook: Struggle at $70.00

Crude oil is battling to hold the $70.00 level, but the path ahead remains uncertain. Geopolitical events could cause prices to spike, but absent any major developments, oil could see further declines. As markets hedge against a potential presidential win by former U.S. President Donald Trump in the November 5 elections, crude oil appears uncertain on how to factor this into pricing.

For crude oil to regain momentum, it must first close above the critical resistance at $71.46, a level that provided support earlier in the week. Beyond this, the next significant challenge lies at $75.28, where the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns with other key technical indicators.

On the downside, $71.46 has now flipped to resistance. If oil falls further, traders will look to the $67.11 level, which provided support in May-June 2023. A break below this could send prices toward the 2024 year-to-date low of $64.75, followed by the 2023 low of $64.38.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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Gold Price Recovers Some Losses

Gold Price Recovers Some Losses, Still Below Key 50-Day SMA Resistance

Gold Price Recovers Some Losses, Still Below Key 50-Day SMA Resistance

During Tuesday’s Asian trading session, gold prices (XAU/USD) experienced some buying, partially offsetting Monday’s modest losses. This revival is driven by U.S. macroeconomic data that suggest easing inflation pressures, heightening anticipation of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September. These developments provide some support for gold, which does not yield income but often gains when yield-bearing assets like bonds are less attractive. Nonetheless, the metal continues to operate within a familiar range from the past week and remains below the crucial 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling that bullish traders should remain cautious.

Recently, the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance, predicting only one interest rate cut this year. This position has been reinforced by multiple Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, maintaining high U.S. Treasury bond yields. These conditions bolster the U.S. Dollar (USD), which, in turn, could limit any significant upward movement in gold prices. Investors and traders are encouraged to await sustained buying before determining that the recent corrective downturn from the record highs in May is concluding and before preparing for potential further gains.

The outlook for gold is tethered not only to U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve policies but also to broader global economic dynamics. With inflationary pressures showing signs of subsiding, there could be less impetus for the Fed to maintain higher interest rates, traditionally a scenario that favors gold. However, the complexities of global finance, including ongoing international tensions and economic recoveries, continue to play a significant role in shaping market sentiment and the subsequent demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Moving forward, market participants will likely monitor upcoming U.S. economic reports and statements from FOMC members closely. These insights will help gauge the strength of the dollar and the trajectory of interest rates, which are pivotal in determining the direction of gold prices. As such, the immediate future of gold trading appears to hinge on a delicate balance of economic indicators, monetary policy expectations, and global market sentiment.

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Gold Price Stays Low Amid Rate Concerns

Gold Price Stays Low Amid Rate Concerns, Rising US Dollar Demand

Gold Price Stays Low Amid Rate Concerns, Rising US Dollar Demand

During early trading in Europe on Tuesday, the gold price (XAU/USD) faced renewed selling pressure, diminishing some of the modest recovery gains it had made from the previous day. These gains had lifted the price from a low of $2,287—the lowest in over a month—sparked by optimistic US employment data. This development has led investors to reconsider their expectations for an impending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, resulting in sustained high US Treasury bond yields and a robust US Dollar (USD). The dollar reached a multi-week high on Monday, which continues to dampen the demand for gold.

Additionally, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) made a significant shift by sharply curtailing its gold purchasing activities in May. This decision marked the end of an extensive one-and-a-half-year period of consistent buying, diverting investment flows away from gold. Despite these pressures, gold prices are finding some support against deeper losses due to ongoing political uncertainty in Europe and persistent geopolitical risks. These factors are causing traders to adopt a cautious stance, preferring to wait for further economic indicators.

Key upcoming events that traders are watching include the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, both due on Wednesday. These events are highly anticipated as they could provide clearer signals about the Fed’s plans regarding rate cuts. The outcome of these developments will be crucial in shaping the short-term direction of gold prices.

Gold, as a non-yielding asset, typically finds it challenging to compete with yield-bearing investments when interest rates are high. The current strength of the US dollar, fueled by high treasury yields and the Fed’s monetary policy stance, continues to exert downward pressure on gold prices. However, the precious metal’s status as a safe-haven asset amid financial and geopolitical instability could help mitigate some of the negative impacts from these economic factors.

Investors and traders are therefore closely monitoring these economic indicators and central bank decisions, which will play a pivotal role in determining the near-term pricing and investment attractiveness of gold in the current economic landscape.

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Gold Prices Hit Two-Week High as Buyers

Gold Prices Hit Two-Week High as Buyers Bet on Fed Rate Cut

Gold Prices Hit Two-Week High as Buyers Bet on Fed Rate Cut

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have seen consistent buying interest for the second consecutive day, reaching a two-week peak around the $2,373 mark during the early European trading session on Thursday. The momentum is distinctly bullish, fueled by expectations that major central banks worldwide might reduce borrowing costs to stimulate economic growth.

This bullish sentiment was reinforced when the Bank of Canada (BoC), on Wednesday, reduced its benchmark interest rate for the first time in four years from a more than two-decade high, expressing concerns over a decelerating economy. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to lower its interest rates for the first time since March 2016 at its policy meeting conclusion later today.

On another front, market participants are increasingly betting on a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in response to signs of a cooling U.S. economy. These expectations have kept U.S. Treasury bond yields at their lowest in over two months, which has undermined any attempts by the U.S. Dollar (USD) to capitalize on its modest recovery gains observed over the previous two days. Moreover, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to support the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

Despite these favorable conditions, the upside potential for gold prices appears somewhat capped. Investors remain cautious, with many holding their positions in anticipation of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday. This key economic indicator could provide significant insights into the health of the U.S. labor market and influence the Fed’s monetary policy decisions moving forward.

Overall, the global economic landscape, characterized by potential rate cuts from major central banks and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, forms a supportive backdrop for gold. However, the near-term trajectory of gold prices will likely be influenced by upcoming economic data releases and policy announcements, which are keenly awaited by traders and investors alike to gauge the next significant move in the precious metals market.

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WTI Falls Below $74 Amid OPEC+ Plans

WTI Falls Below $74 Amid OPEC+ Plans to Reduce Production Cuts

WTI Falls Below $74 Amid OPEC+ Plans to Reduce Production Cuts

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices continued their downward trend for the fifth consecutive day, trading at approximately $73.90 per barrel during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. This recent decline in crude oil prices stems from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, announcing a plan to gradually ease oil production cuts.

OPEC+ has scheduled a phased rollback of their voluntary production cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), beginning in October. By December, it is anticipated that over 500,000 bpd will re-enter the market, culminating in a total of 1.8 million bpd by June 2025. This move is aimed at stabilizing the oil market which has experienced significant fluctuations.

In a related development, the United States has announced the purchase of an additional 3 million barrels of oil for the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This decision, made by the Department of Energy, is part of a broader effort to gradually replenish the reserve following its largest-ever depletion in 2022. Last year, under directives from President Joe Biden, 180 million barrels were released over six months to help manage fuel prices in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which had spiked global oil prices.

Additionally, recent U.S. economic data revealed some easing in price pressures. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for April showed a softening in inflation, although this did not prompt an immediate rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed’s hesitation suggests that more time may be needed to meet its inflation targets. Concurrently, the persistently high interest rates are casting a shadow over the U.S. economic outlook, curbing oil demand as higher borrowing costs weigh on economic activities.

Overall, these developments reflect a complex interplay between global oil supply adjustments by OPEC+, strategic reserve policies of the U.S., and broader economic conditions, all of which are contributing to the current trends in oil market dynamics.

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WTI Crude Oil Prices Dip Below $68.50 Amid Stronger USD

WTI Nears $79 as Key US Economic Data Looms

WTI Nears $79 as Key US Economic Data Looms

In the Asian trading session on Thursday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell slightly to around $79.00 per barrel. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming economic reports, including today’s US Crude Oil Stocks Change report from the Energy Information Administration. Expectations are set for a drawdown of 1.9 million barrels for the week ending May 24, contrasting with the previous addition of 1.825 million barrels. Additionally, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock last week reported a significant decrease of 6.49 million barrels, following a 2.48 million barrel increase the week before.

Attention is also focused on the upcoming June 2 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, known as OPEC+. The meeting is critical as members will consider extending voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second half of 2024. It is widely anticipated that the group will agree to maintain these supply reductions.

Further influencing the oil market are comments from Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, which have stirred concerns about further interest rate hikes. Kashkari noted the possibility of rate increases, casting doubt on the progress of disinflation. Such hawkish monetary policy stances tend to negatively impact the economic outlook and, consequently, depress oil prices.

Additionally, the US dollar has strengthened on the back of rising Treasury yields, fueled by investor risk aversion ahead of significant economic data releases. The forthcoming US Gross Domestic Product Annualized data for Q1 and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data set for release on Friday are critical. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially curbing demand.

These elements combined paint a complex picture for WTI prices, as market participants weigh supply dynamics against broader economic indicators and monetary policy developments.

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WTI Crude Oil Holds Modest Losses Above $70, Bearish Bias Persists

WTI Nears $78.50 as US Inflation Data, OPEC+ Meeting Loom

WTI Nears $78.50 as US Inflation Data, OPEC+ Meeting Loom

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edged higher as traders anticipate the upcoming meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia (OPEC+), scheduled for June 2. The meeting will address whether to extend the current voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second half of 2024. WTI was trading around $78.70 per barrel during Tuesday’s Asian trading session.

The rise in oil prices is also fueled by increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, an Israeli airstrike in Rafah, Gaza, reportedly caused a significant fire, resulting in 45 casualties. This incident has intensified international reactions and added a geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. Additionally, the reported death of an Egyptian soldier in related strikes has further contributed to the risk concerns impacting oil markets.

Market focus is also on the US economic indicators, with traders awaiting the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data on Friday. This inflation measure is closely watched by the Federal Reserve to guide its monetary policy decisions. Recent comments from Fed officials suggest a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need for more substantial evidence of inflation trending towards the 2% annual target. Persistently high interest rates could dampen the US economic outlook and curtail oil demand.

Furthermore, developments in Iran could influence oil supply dynamics. According to reports from Iran’s Tasnim news agency, an economic council led by Iran’s interim president Mohammad Mokhber has approved a plan to boost the country’s oil production from 3.6 million barrels per day to 4 million barrels per day.

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Gold Price

Gold Prices Fall Further Due to Fed’s Hawkish Outlook

Gold Prices Fall Further Due to Fed’s Hawkish Outlook

On Wednesday, gold prices faced downward pressure as sellers stepped in, influenced by the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which were perceived as markedly more hawkish than earlier communications. This interpretation suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve may maintain its tight monetary policy stance for a prolonged period. The anticipation of continued restrictive policies bolstered the U.S. dollar, which in turn placed significant selling pressure on gold.

The price trajectory of gold in the coming days could hinge on several key economic indicators and events. Market participants are particularly keen on the upcoming preliminary readings of the U.S. Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May. Should these indicators come in weaker than expected, they could fuel speculation that the Federal Reserve might ease up on interest rates, potentially providing a lift to gold prices.

Moreover, ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent uncertainties are likely to continue supporting the precious metal by limiting its downside. Despite the pressures from a stronger dollar, factors such as unresolved geopolitical conflicts and sustained high inflation are elements that traditionally drive investors towards the safety of gold.

In addition to the PMI data, several other important economic reports and events are on the horizon, which could influence gold prices. These include the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and New Home Sales data. Additionally, comments from the Federal Reserve’s officials, particularly from Fed’s Bostic, will be closely watched for further insights into the central bank’s future policy direction.

Investors and traders in gold will need to navigate a complex landscape of economic data and Fed communications in the short term. While the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve poses challenges, the underlying economic uncertainties and the traditional role of gold as a safe-haven asset may provide some support to its prices. As such, the balance of these dynamics will be crucial in determining the near-term movements in the gold market.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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NZD/USD Holds Below 0.6000 on Dovish RBNZ Outlook, US GDP Data Awaited

NZD/USD Holds Below 0.6000 on Dovish RBNZ Outlook, US GDP Data Awaited

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure near 0.5970 during the Asian session on Wednesday, weighed down by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) dovish outlook. Market participants are now looking ahead to key US data, including the third-quarter GDP report and ADP Employment Change for October, which are due on Wednesday.

Goldman Sachs analysts foresee a potentially aggressive stance from the RBNZ, forecasting rate cuts of 50 basis points in both November and February, with a possibility of a 75 bps cut in November. This dovish stance is expected to weaken the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the short term.
Adding to NZD sentiment, China is reportedly considering issuing an additional 10 trillion yuan (approximately $1.4 trillion) in debt to support its slowing economy. This potential stimulus could benefit the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is a significant trading partner for New Zealand.

Meanwhile, the expectation of a less aggressive rate path from the US Federal Reserve supports the US Dollar. Markets have nearly priced in a 98.4% probability of a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed in November. However, recent US economic data presents a mixed picture; the September JOLTS report showed job openings at their lowest level in over three years, while the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for October reached a nine-month high, reflecting optimism in the labor market.

With US Q3 GDP and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data in focus, traders will monitor these releases for further insights into the US economic trajectory and potential impacts on the NZD/USD pair.

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Australian Dollar Steady Amid RBA’s Restrictive Policy Outlook

Australian Dollar Declines Amid Market Caution

Australian Dollar Declines Amid Market Caution

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edged lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, though the AUD/USD pair experienced minor gains as the USD softened slightly with a modest dip in US Treasury yields. The AUD might find some support from the hawkish tone surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted the country’s robust labor participation rate earlier this week and emphasized that while the RBA bases decisions on data, it is not excessively data-dependent.

The USD has strengthened as markets closely watch the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate trajectory, with expectations rising that the Fed may be less aggressive in cutting rates than initially anticipated. Additionally, the USD is buoyed by speculation about former President Donald Trump’s potential second term in the upcoming US presidential election. Traders are likely to keep an eye on Friday’s US Durable Goods Orders and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reports.

During an event in Las Vegas on Thursday, Republican nominee Donald Trump used his well-known catchphrase, pledging to “build an economy that lifts up all Americans,” with a particular focus on supporting minority communities, as reported by Reuters.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar Down Ahead of US Presidential Election

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in November, with little expectation of a 50-basis-point reduction. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris drew support from high-profile figures, including Bruce Springsteen and former President Barack Obama, at a rally in Georgia, a critical battleground state.

Recent S&P Global data shows positive US economic momentum. The October Composite PMI rose to 54.3 from 54.0, while the Services PMI beat expectations at 55.3, and Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.8. In Australia, Judo Bank’s Composite PMI slightly rose to 49.8 in October, showing continued contraction in private sector output. Services PMI inched up to 50.6, while the Manufacturing PMI fell further to 46.6.

The Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday described economic activity as “little changed,” a shift from August’s report, which indicated growth in some districts. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari both commented on stable economic conditions, with Kashkari suggesting that any rate cuts will be gradual.

In China, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reduced both the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates, which could boost demand for Australian exports. Additionally, National Australia Bank has moved forward its RBA rate cut projection to February 2025, expecting gradual reductions to reach 3.10% by early 2026.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Hovering Near Two-Month Low

The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6640, near a two-month low. Technical indicators reveal a short-term bearish trend, with the pair staying below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) under 50, signaling bearish sentiment.

The pair is testing support at 0.6614, with a significant support level at the psychological 0.6600 mark. On the upside, resistance is expected at the nine-day EMA of 0.6672, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6724, with a break above potentially leading toward the 0.6800 level.

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US Dollar Stabilizes After Recent Losses

US Dollar Holds Steady Amid Correction, Market Focus Shifts to Key Mid-Tier Data

US Dollar Holds Steady Amid Correction, Market Focus Shifts to Key Mid-Tier Data

The US Dollar (USD) maintains resilience against major counterparts early Friday after losing momentum on Thursday. European trading hours will center on Germany’s IFO business sentiment surveys, while later in the day, US data releases, including September Durable Goods Orders and the final revision of October’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, are expected. Additionally, Canada’s September Retail Sales report will provide insights into consumer spending trends.

Improving risk sentiment hindered the USD’s weekly rally extension on Thursday. As Wall Street’s main indexes closed higher, the USD Index dipped by 0.4%, marking its largest one-day drop in a month. In early European trading Friday, the USD Index stabilizes above 104.00, with US stock index futures edging higher.

The GBP/USD pair recovered over 0.4% on Thursday, erasing previous losses and consolidating near 1.2970, just shy of testing the key 1.3000 level. Meanwhile, despite broader USD softness, USD/CAD posted modest gains on Thursday. The Canadian Dollar struggled for traction following the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) recent decision to cut its policy rate by 50 basis points, keeping the pair near 1.3850 in early Friday trading.

The USD/JPY pair corrected after a three-day rally, influenced by optimism surrounding the US economic outlook, as noted by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda. Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reiterated the importance of stable currency moves aligned with fundamentals, as Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at a softer annual rate of 1.8% in October compared to 2.1% in September.
Gold gained traction on Thursday, appreciating 0.75% as US Treasury bond yields declined, providing support for the XAU/USD pair, which remains relatively quiet around $2,750 in early European trading. Investors will continue to monitor USD developments and risk sentiment amid Friday’s mid-tier data releases for additional directional cues.

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Australian Dollar Faces Downward Pressure Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

Australian Dollar Faces Downward Pressure Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

Australian Dollar Faces Downward Pressure Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

The Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled to maintain its previous gains on Wednesday, as the AUD/USD pair came under pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD) driven by rising US Treasury yields. The growing risk aversion in markets, partly fueled by the increasing odds of Donald Trump winning the presidency, has added selling pressure on US Treasury bonds, thereby boosting the USD.

However, the downside for the AUD may be limited due to hawkish expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Positive employment data has strengthened the case for the RBA to maintain a firm stance on interest rates. Additionally, China’s recent rate cuts have provided further support for the Aussie, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

The US Dollar’s gains have been reinforced by signs of economic resilience and lingering concerns about inflation, which have reduced the likelihood of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 91% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, with no expectations for a larger 50-basis-point reduction.

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Australian Labor Market Surprises with Strong Job Growth

Australian Labor Market Surprises Positively – Commerzbank

Australian Labor Market Surprises Positively – Commerzbank

Australia’s employment report delivered stronger-than-expected results this morning, joining the list of countries with unexpectedly robust labor data, notes Commerzbank’s FX analyst, Michael Pfister.

AUD Supported Amid Strong Job Creation

“Job creation reached 64.1k, slightly outpacing August’s already strong figure, with most gains driven by full-time positions. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was revised down slightly and remains at 4.1%, close to historic lows and well below the decade average. This positive news has significantly boosted the Australian dollar today.”

RBA to Watch Inflation Before Acting on Rates

“Future decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will also hinge on third-quarter inflation data, set to be released in two weeks. However, given the labor market’s continued strength and the upward trend in recent months, there seems little immediate reason for the RBA to consider cutting rates in early November.”

Outlook for the Australian Dollar

“The RBA is expected to maintain its current policy at least until early next year, keeping the Australian dollar supported in the near term. However, Australia’s economic fate remains closely tied to China’s performance. If Chinese economic data weakens, the Australian dollar could face renewed pressure.”

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Global Investors in the Dark on China as Wall Street Surges

Global Investors Left in the Dark on China as Wall Street Surges

Global Investors Left in the Dark on China as Wall Street Surges

Global investors are struggling to navigate China’s economic uncertainties after Beijing’s weekend stimulus update underwhelmed markets. While China remains in a fog, Wall Street powered ahead with the S&P 500 and Dow extending their rally, setting the stage for Tokyo to join in when its mafrkets reopen after a three-day holiday.

Tech stocks, particularly in the chip sector, surged despite the U.S. Treasury market being closed for Columbus Day. Market sentiment was buoyed by excitement around third-quarter earnings, with financial giants like JP Morgan and Wells Fargo kicking things off last Friday. Big names like Citi, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs are set to release their earnings on Tuesday, keeping expectations high for more impressive financial results.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar reached its highest level since mid-August, bolstered by safe-haven demand triggered by China’s “Joint Sword 2024B” military drills near Taiwan, which the U.S. labeled as destabilizing. The greenback also gained ground against the yuan as investors were disappointed by China’s lackluster stimulus measures. Instead of bold fiscal action, Beijing reshuffled its economic approach, which failed to inspire confidence.

Unsurprisingly, the yuan fell to 7.09 per dollar, its lowest since mid-September, and has dropped roughly 1% since China’s central bank implemented aggressive stimulus in late September. Meanwhile, gold and oil prices dipped, with markets betting on a modest 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, reflecting confidence in the U.S. economy’s soft-landing scenario. This narrative is fueling Wall Street’s record-breaking momentum.

U.S. rate futures are now showing an 87% likelihood of a 25-bps cut in November, with only a 13% chance of a pause, indicating that traders expect a gradual but steady easing cycle from the Fed.

The dollar’s rise, nearing the 150 yen mark, suggests that Tokyo’s Nikkei index could build on its recent highs, adding to its remarkable 27% surge since early August. However, foreign exchange traders are wary that this upward momentum could prompt the Bank of Japan to consider a Q4 rate hike, especially after upcoming elections. Such a move could create significant volatility in global markets, shaking currency values and stock prices alike.

In contrast, Chinese markets are under pressure. U.S.-listed Chinese stocks suffered losses on Monday as investors, worried about the potential for a second Trump presidency, began reducing their exposure. The reasoning is that no major U.S. allocator wants to increase their stakes in Chinese assets ahead of the possibility of renewed tariffs and tensions with a Trump administration.

China’s economic woes are growing as demand wanes and deflation looms. Monday’s data revealed that export growth slowed to just 2.4% in September, a sharp drop from August. This signals that exporters may have rushed to ship goods earlier to avoid potential Western tariffs. As Beijing faces growing pressures, especially with the U.S. election on the horizon, its stimulus efforts, while a step in the right direction, seem insufficient to resolve its deeper economic challenges.

The country’s property market crisis remains a significant concern. The sheer volume of unsold housing is staggering—unfinished presold units are eight times the annual completion rate, roughly 60 million units. Clearing this backlog could take years, if not decades, and without substantial reforms and financial injections, any recovery in China’s housing market appears distant. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the property crisis, combined with slowing manufacturing and export sectors, could exacerbate China’s economic fragility.

Investors are closely watching Beijing for more decisive action, but without stronger measures, the current rally in global markets could fade as quickly as it began.

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US CPI Inflation Data Could Impact Fed Rate Outlook | Key Market Insights

US CPI Inflation Data Could Shape Market Expectations for Fed Rate Decisions

US CPI Inflation Data Could Shape Market Expectations for Fed Rate Decisions

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the eagerly awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for September on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.

The U.S. Dollar (USD) faces potential volatility, as the report could play a significant role in shaping the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate policy for the remainder of the year.

What to Expect in the Upcoming CPI Data?

Inflation in the U.S., as measured by the CPI, is expected to have risen by 2.3% year-over-year in September, down from the 2.5% increase recorded in August. Meanwhile, core CPI inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—is forecast to remain steady at 3.2% for the same period.

On a monthly basis, both the CPI and core CPI are anticipated to see moderate increases of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

Previewing the September report, analysts from TD Securities stated, “Our forecasts suggest that core inflation lost some momentum, showing a 0.24% month-over-month gain, down from the 0.28% recorded in August.” They added, “Headline inflation likely saw a meaningful deceleration, as energy prices continued to provide relief. Core goods prices likely contributed to inflation for the first time in seven months, while housing inflation probably eased, helping to pull down core services inflation.”

Fed Outlook on Interest Rates

Regarding the Fed’s outlook, Governor Adriana Kugler recently indicated she would support additional rate cuts if inflation continues to ease as projected. However, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem took a more cautious stance, warning that easing policy too aggressively could harm the Fed’s credibility and future economic stability. He argued that “the risks of reducing rates too soon outweigh those of keeping rates higher for longer, especially given the potential threat of persistent inflation.”

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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