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Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Month

Japanese Yen Recovery from Multi-Month Low Against USD Shows Limited Bullish Commitment

Japanese Yen Recovery from Multi-Month Low Against USD Shows Limited Bullish Commitment

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has gained ground for a second consecutive day, rebounding from a recent multi-month low near 153.20 against the US Dollar (USD) reached earlier this week. This recovery follows verbal interventions by Japanese authorities, which have been instrumental in supporting the Yen. Meanwhile, US Dollar bulls have turned cautious amid a modest dip in US Treasury bond yields, adding a downward bias to the USD/JPY pair.

However, doubts about further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2024, compounded by uncertainty around upcoming elections in Japan and a drop in Tokyo’s core inflation rate below the 2% target, may limit further JPY appreciation. Additionally, a generally positive risk sentiment tempers aggressive bets on the Yen as a safe-haven asset. Concurrently, expectations of smaller rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) may continue to support the USD and curb losses for the USD/JPY pair.

Market Movers: Yen Supported by Intervention, Economic Concerns Persist

Friday’s data from the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed the headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.8% year-over-year in October, down from 2.2% in the previous month. Core CPI, excluding fresh food prices, matched market expectations at 1.8% but remained below the BoJ’s 2% target, signaling persistent economic challenges. A private-sector survey released Thursday revealed that Japan’s manufacturing and services sectors contracted in October, pointing to weak economic conditions and raising doubts about the BoJ’s potential for further rate hikes in the near term.

Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stressed the need for stable currency movements reflecting economic fundamentals, acknowledging the varied effects of a weaker Yen on the economy. Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, Atsushi Mimura, reiterated that the government closely monitors FX volatility, aiming to mitigate excess fluctuations.

The US Dollar, meanwhile, paused its recent pullback from a three-month high amid expectations of less aggressive policy easing by the Fed, lending some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders will be watching Friday’s US macro data, including Durable Goods Orders and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, as Japan’s Sunday election approaches.

Technical Outlook: Key Levels for USD/JPY

Technically, a break below the 151.60-151.55 support zone could accelerate the USD/JPY’s slide to the 151.00 level. Further declines may find support near 150.65, a confluence of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-September pullback. If this level breaks, it may signal the end of the recent rally, shifting bias toward bearish traders.

Alternatively, a move beyond 152.00 could see USD/JPY testing the 152.60-152.65 region. Continued upward momentum could allow the pair to approach the 153.00 mark and, if surpassed, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 153.20. Clearing this point would likely open the path toward further gains around the 154.00 level and the 154.30 resistance zone.

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Australian Dollar Drops on Weak GDP Data and RBA Rate Cut Bets

Australian Dollar Holds Steady as US Dollar Softens Ahead of PMI Data

Australian Dollar Holds Steady as US Dollar Softens Ahead of PMI Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, supported by the release of domestic Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. The AUD/USD pair moved higher as the USD experienced a slight dip, driven by a modest pullback in US Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year yields standing at 4.07% and 4.23%, respectively, at the time of writing.

The Australian Dollar’s performance is further bolstered by hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), underpinned by strong employment figures. Earlier in the week, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted the high labor participation rate, emphasizing that the central bank remains data-driven but not overly fixated on any single data point.

The USD, meanwhile, came under pressure following the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book on Wednesday. The report noted that economic activity across the US was “little changed in nearly all Districts,” contrasting with August’s report, which had indicated growth in three Districts and stable activity in nine.

Market participants are now closely watching the release of the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a key indicator of US private sector activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors, which is scheduled for Thursday.

Market Movers: Australian Dollar Gains on RBA Hawkish Sentiment

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 88.9% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.

Australia’s Judo Bank Composite PMI slightly rose to 49.8 in October from 49.6 in September, marking the second consecutive month of contraction in private sector output. The Services PMI edged up to 50.6 from 50.5, marking its ninth consecutive month of expansion, while the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 46.6 from 46.7, continuing its decline.

In a social media post, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly noted that the US economy is in a better position, with inflation significantly lower and the labor market stabilizing. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that the Fed is monitoring the labor market for signs of instability and suggested that any rate cuts will likely be gradual rather than aggressive.

China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), lowered its 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to 3.10% from 3.35% and its 5-year LPR to 3.60% from 3.85%, as expected. These cuts aim to stimulate domestic economic activity in China, which could, in turn, boost demand for Australian exports.

National Australia Bank recently revised its projection for the RBA, now expecting the first rate cut in February 2025, earlier than the previously anticipated May timeline. The bank foresees gradual cuts, with rates expected to reach 3.10% by early 2026.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar Remains Below 0.6650

The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6640 on Thursday, maintaining a bearish outlook in the short term. The pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50, reinforcing the negative sentiment.

On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may retest its two-month low of 0.6614, last seen on Wednesday. The next key support lies at the psychological level of 0.6600.

On the upside, resistance is expected at the nine-day EMA at 0.6680, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6728. A break above these levels could pave the way for a potential move toward the psychological resistance at 0.6800.

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Japanese Yen Weakens Below 152.00 Against USD, Hits Fresh Three-Month Low

Japanese Yen Weakens Below 152.00 Against USD, Hits Fresh Three-Month Low

Japanese Yen Weakens Below 152.00 Against USD, Hits Fresh Three-Month Low

The Japanese Yen (JPY) extended its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) for a third consecutive day, pushing the USD/JPY pair above the 152.00 level for the first time since late July during Wednesday’s Asian session. This recent weakness is driven by uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to raise interest rates further in 2024, a key factor in the Yen’s decline since early October.

The drop below the psychological 150.00 level earlier this month sparked verbal interventions from Japanese officials, though these efforts have done little to bolster the JPY. Even the prevailing risk-off sentiment, fueled by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has not provided the usual support for the safe-haven currency.

Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will ease its pace of rate cuts have driven US Treasury yields to a three-month high, boosting the USD. This further reinforces the outlook for continued JPY depreciation and more gains for the USD/JPY pair.

Market Movers: JPY Weakness Persists Despite Intervention Warnings

  • The Japanese Yen has fallen to its weakest level in nearly three months as doubts grow over the BoJ’s rate-hike plans.
  • Verbal interventions from Japanese authorities after the JPY fell below the key 150.00 mark have failed to reverse its downward trend.
  • Slower expected rate cuts by the Fed and concerns over increased US fiscal deficits after the upcoming presidential election have triggered a bond market selloff.
  • Yields on the 10-year US Treasury bond have reached levels not seen since July, pushing the US Dollar to its highest point since early August.
  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly highlighted that inflation has eased and the labor market is on a more sustainable path, supporting the Fed’s cautious approach.
  • Former President Donald Trump’s rising odds in the US election have led to speculation about inflation-inducing tariffs.
  • Geopolitical risks remain high as markets eye a potential Israeli strike on Iran. Hezbollah fired rockets at two bases near Tel Aviv and a naval base near Haifa on Tuesday.
  • Diplomatic efforts to resolve the year-long Middle East conflict have thus far failed, reducing investor appetite for riskier assets.
  • Traders await the US Existing Home Sales report, while the focus remains on BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s upcoming speech at the IMF-hosted “Governors Talk.”
  • Tokyo consumer inflation data, due Friday, will also be a key factor ahead of Japan’s general election on October 27 and the BoJ meeting on October 31.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Breakout Above 152.00 Signals Bullish Momentum

From a technical standpoint, the recent breakout above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) signals further bullish potential for the USD/JPY pair. Oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, suggesting the possibility of additional gains beyond the 152.00 mark. Follow-through buying could continue to drive the pair upward in line with the ongoing uptrend seen over the past month.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing overbought levels, prompting caution among aggressive bulls. A period of near-term consolidation or a modest pullback may be prudent before positioning for further appreciation.

On the downside, support is likely to be found near the 151.20-151.15 region, with a break below the 151.00 mark seen as a buying opportunity. The 150.60 level could act as a key support point, below which the pair may accelerate its decline toward the 150.00 psychological level.

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Australian Dollar Supported by Hawkish RBA Outlook

Australian Dollar Supported by Hawkish RBA Outlook, But Faces Pressure from Rising US Treasury Yields

Australian Dollar Supported by Hawkish RBA Outlook, But Faces Pressure from Rising US Treasury Yields

The Australian Dollar (AUD) regained some of its recent losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, buoyed by a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and strong domestic employment data. However, the AUD/USD pair continues to face resistance due to surging US Treasury yields, which rose by over 2% on Monday amid concerns about inflation and economic strength in the US.

The Aussie Dollar’s resilience is supported by market expectations that the RBA may maintain a tighter monetary policy in the near term, given positive labor market conditions in Australia. Additionally, China’s recent interest rate cuts have provided a boost, as the nation remains Australia’s largest trading partner, and lower borrowing costs in China could stimulate demand for Australian exports.

In contrast, the US Dollar has gained strength following economic data that suggests the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to implement a large rate cut in November. The likelihood of a modest 25-basis-point cut stands at 89.1%, with no significant expectations for a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction. Rising US bond yields, driven by stronger retail sales and a drop in initial jobless claims, further support the greenback, creating headwinds for AUD/USD.

Traders are now awaiting the release of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports from both the US and Australia on Thursday, which could shed light on the health of their respective economies and influence future monetary policy decisions.

Market Movers: Australian Dollar Declines Amid Risk Aversion

  • US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are at 4.02% and 4.19%, respectively, reflecting rising demand for US debt.
  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that the Fed is closely monitoring the labor market, signaling that rate cuts will be gradual and moderate.
  • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s data-driven approach to interest rate adjustments.
  • RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, speaking at the CBA 2024 Global Markets Conference, expressed surprise at Australia’s strong employment growth, highlighting the country’s high labor participation rate.
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowered its 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to 3.10% and the 5-year LPR to 3.60%, which could boost China’s domestic economy and demand for Australian exports.
  • National Australia Bank revised its forecast, expecting the RBA’s first rate cut in February 2025, earlier than previously projected.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Faces Bearish Pressure

The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6660, close to eight-week lows. On the daily chart, the pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling a bearish short-term trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also below 50, further reinforcing this sentiment.

On the downside, the pair may test support at its eight-week low of 0.6622, with the psychological level of 0.6600 providing further support. Resistance is expected at the nine-day EMA around 0.6700, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6734. A break above these levels could pave the way for a move toward 0.6800.

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Gold Price Overbought, Bulls Should Exercise Caution Amid Renewed

Gold Price Overbought, Bulls Should Exercise Caution Amid Renewed USD Strength

Gold Price Overbought, Bulls Should Exercise Caution Amid Renewed USD Strength

Gold (XAU/USD) remains near its intraday highs through early European trading, hovering close to its all-time peak of around $2,730. The continued accommodative monetary policy environment and persistent geopolitical tensions, especially from the Middle East conflicts, support the precious metal’s upward momentum. Additionally, political uncertainty in the US has contributed to gold’s rally over the past two weeks.

Despite this, expectations of modest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are helping keep US Treasury yields elevated, which in turn strengthens the US Dollar (USD) and invites some dip-buying interest. The USD Index (DXY) is back near its recent high, the highest since early August. Combined with slightly overbought conditions in the daily gold chart, further gains for the metal could be limited.

Daily Market Movers: Gold Holds Up Despite USD Strength

  • Geopolitical risks: The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, with rising tensions between Israel and Iran adding to concerns. Israel has intensified attacks on Lebanon and Gaza, raising fears of a broader regional conflict, which supports safe-haven demand for gold.
  • US political uncertainty: Polls show a tight race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, adding further risk and boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
  • Central bank actions: The European Central Bank has recently cut interest rates for the third time this year, while the Fed and the Bank of England are expected to lower borrowing costs further, adding to the support for gold’s bullish trend.

Technical Outlook: Bulls Remain Strong, But Caution Advised

Technically, gold’s sustained strength above $2,700 signals continued bullish momentum. However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) surpassing 70, signaling overbought conditions, traders may want to wait for consolidation or a pullback before positioning for further gains. Immediate support lies at the $2,700 level, with potential downside targets around the $2,662-2,660 range and further support near $2,647-2,646. A break below these levels could accelerate selling toward $2,600.

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Japanese Yen Gains Strength Against USD Amid BoJ Policy Uncertainty

Japanese Yen Gains Traction Against USD Amid BoJ Uncertainty

Japanese Yen Gains Traction Against USD Amid BoJ Uncertainty

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is seeing an upward trend during Friday’s Asian session, partially recovering from the previous day’s losses against the US Dollar (USD), reaching its strongest level since early August. Several factors are driving the JPY’s gains, including verbal intervention from Japanese officials and stronger domestic inflation data, which could potentially prompt the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to consider rate hikes.

Contributing to the JPY’s strength is a modest pullback in the USD from its two-and-a-half-month high. However, expectations that the BoJ will refrain from raising interest rates, given signs of easing inflation and the upcoming general election on October 27, may limit the Yen’s potential gains. Additionally, the market is anticipating smaller interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which could further cap losses in the USD/JPY pair.

Key Market Movers: Verbal Intervention and Inflation Data Boost Yen

Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, Atsushi Mimura, expressed concern over the rapid and one-sided moves in the Yen, stating that excessive volatility in the currency market is undesirable. Furthermore, a government spokesperson emphasized the importance of stable currency movements that reflect economic fundamentals, signaling that authorities are closely monitoring the situation, particularly speculative moves in the market.

In addition to the intervention, government data showed a deceleration in Japan’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.5% YoY in September, while the Core CPI, excluding fresh food, eased from a 10-month high. These signs of easing inflation, coupled with opposition to rate hikes from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, raise questions about how much room the BoJ has to pursue further tightening.

Meanwhile, the Chinese economy’s 0.9% growth in the third quarter of 2024, coupled with stronger-than-expected Retail Sales and Industrial Production, had little impact on market sentiment.

On the US side, strong economic data continues to support the Greenback. Thursday’s positive US data reaffirmed market bets for a less aggressive Fed rate-cutting cycle, keeping US Treasury yields elevated, which serves as a tailwind for the USD. The USD Index (DXY) remains near its highest level since August, which could limit the USD/JPY pair’s downside potential.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Dips Toward 149.20 Present Buying Opportunities

From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the psychological 150.00 level signals renewed bullish momentum. Indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably in positive territory, with no immediate signs of being overbought, suggesting that the USD/JPY pair could continue to climb.

Any pullbacks toward the 149.20 level may be viewed as buying opportunities, with further support at the 149.00 level. Below this, the pair could see a corrective fall toward the 148.60-148.55 region and eventually test the 148.00 mark, with a key support zone around 147.35-147.30. A break below this area could shift the market bias toward bearish traders.

On the upside, a sustained move above the overnight high of 150.30 could push the pair toward the August peak at 150.85-150.90, with potential further gains beyond the 151.00 level, opening the door to a near-term rally toward 152.00.

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Crude Oil Steadies as Markets Monitor Middle East Tensions

Crude Oil Steadies as Markets Monitor Middle East Tensions and China’s Economic Outlook

Crude Oil Steadies as Markets Monitor Middle East Tensions and China’s Economic Outlook

Crude oil prices stabilized on Thursday after a four-day losing streak that resulted in a nearly 7% weekly drop. The market has found a temporary floor, with traders weighing geopolitical risks, particularly doubts over whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will honor his pledge to the U.S. not to strike Iranian oil facilities. Further support for oil came from a surprise drawdown in U.S. stock piles, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting a decrease of 1.58 million barrels for the week ending October 11, compared to expectations of a 2.3 million barrel increase.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, is bracing for a volatile session. In addition to a slew of U.S. economic data, markets are watching the European Central Bank (ECB), which is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut. With core Eurozone economies facing significant challenges, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s response to prevent further Euro weakness will be closely scrutinized.

As of this writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading at $70.00, while Brent crude is at $74.09.

Key Market Drivers

  1. China’s Economic Stimulus: China has unveiled a plan to inject 4 trillion yuan (CNY) into its housing market, although markets reacted poorly to the lower-than-expected figure, down from an earlier 6 trillion yuan estimate. The announcement has had limited impact on oil prices so far.
  2. Middle East Tensions: Pressure continues to mount on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, with growing calls within his cabinet to disregard U.S. advice and strike Iranian oil facilities. An article from an opposition leader in the Jerusalem Post urging an immediate attack has heightened tensions, according to Reuters.
  3. S. Oil Stockpiles: Later today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly oil inventory data for the week ending October 11. Analysts expect a modest build of 2.3 million barrels, following a larger-than-anticipated increase of 5.81 million barrels the previous week.

Oil Price Technical Outlook: Struggle at $70.00

Crude oil is battling to hold the $70.00 level, but the path ahead remains uncertain. Geopolitical events could cause prices to spike, but absent any major developments, oil could see further declines. As markets hedge against a potential presidential win by former U.S. President Donald Trump in the November 5 elections, crude oil appears uncertain on how to factor this into pricing.

For crude oil to regain momentum, it must first close above the critical resistance at $71.46, a level that provided support earlier in the week. Beyond this, the next significant challenge lies at $75.28, where the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns with other key technical indicators.

On the downside, $71.46 has now flipped to resistance. If oil falls further, traders will look to the $67.11 level, which provided support in May-June 2023. A break below this could send prices toward the 2024 year-to-date low of $64.75, followed by the 2023 low of $64.38.

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Gold Prices Slip as Recession Fears Diminish

Gold Prices Slip as Recession Fears Diminish, Set for Weekly Losses

Gold Prices Slip as Recession Fears Diminish, Set for Weekly Losses

Gold prices dipped in Asian trading on Friday, weighed down by positive U.S. labor data that boosted risk appetite and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. This decline put the yellow metal on track for weekly losses.

In the industrial metals sector, copper prices also benefited from the improved risk sentiment, with positive inflation data from China, the world’s largest importer, helping to lift the mood. However, copper remained on course for steep weekly losses.

Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,419.23 per ounce, while December gold futures dropped 0.2% to $2,459.10 per ounce as of 01:40 ET (05:40 GMT).

Gold Eyes Mild Weekly Losses, Remains Near Record Highs

Spot gold prices were down nearly 1% this week, retreating from near-record highs reached last week as recession fears had driven up safe-haven demand.

However, those fears receded throughout the week, particularly after strong U.S. labor market data suggested that a severe economic slowdown might not be imminent.

Weekly jobless claims data released on Thursday exceeded expectations, leading to a sharp rebound in risk-driven markets, particularly stocks, and reducing the appeal of gold as a safe haven.

Despite the dip, gold’s losses were somewhat limited as investors continued to bet on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

This expectation also lent some support to other precious metals, although they too saw declines on Friday and were headed for weekly losses. Platinum futures slipped 0.1% to $941.20 per ounce, while silver futures declined 0.3% to $27.535 per ounce.

Copper Prices Edge Up on Positive China Inflation, But Weekly Losses Loom

Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.8% to $8,896.50 per ton, while one-month copper futures increased by the same margin to $4.0150 per pound.

Despite these gains, both contracts were down about 2% for the week and hovered near four-month lows.

Some positive data from China, the top importer, provided a boost to copper prices. July’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation exceeded expectations, while producer price index (PPI) inflation contracted less than anticipated. This data fueled optimism that demand for copper might be improving in China.

However, other indicators earlier in the week, particularly import data, showed that China’s copper imports declined for the second consecutive month in July, adding to the metal’s downward pressure.

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Topix and Nikkei Hit Record Highs in Japan Stock Rally

Topix and Nikkei Hit Record Highs in Japan Stock Rally

Topix and Nikkei Hit Record Highs in Japan Stock Rally

Japan’s Topix stock index surged past its bubble-era peak to reach a record high, signaling a broad-based rally beyond just a few stocks. The benchmark index rose as much as 0.6% to 2,890.52, exceeding the previous intraday record set in December 1989. Most of the 33 industry sub-indexes in the gauge, which covers over 2,000 companies, climbed. Automakers provided the biggest boost, while insurers and banks have been top performers since the index hit a low in mid-April, driven by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates, improving their profitability.

Initial gains were from the exporter and tech-heavy Nikkei index, so it’s not surprising to see the Topix catching up.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average reclaimed its all-time high in February, aided by a global tech rally and a weaker yen boosting exporters. Both indices surged over 25% last year as global funds flowed into the market, attracted by ultra-low borrowing costs, booming profits, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s (TSE) push for better corporate governance.

Investor sentiment remains strong despite the BOJ’s shift towards tighter monetary policy. Banks have advanced on speculation that higher yields will improve lending margins, while insurers are expected to boost profitability through bond investments. However, the BOJ’s decision to delay plans for reducing bond buying until July caused the yen to fall, disappointing investors who wanted more details. The yen’s fresh multi-decade lows have tempered its boost to exporter shares, with fund managers wary of currency intervention. Concerns are mounting that a weak yen may become a liability for Japanese companies and the economy.

Despite these challenges, Japanese stocks remain a favorite in Asia. Bank of America’s June fund manager survey showed that one-third of respondents view corporate governance improvements as the most important theme. Analysts expect the TSE’s plan to revamp the Topix index to pressure companies further to improve governance.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists highlighted that Japanese corporations are keen to show their response to governance reform pressure. Activists are starting to see success, as evidenced by recent shareholder victories at annual general meetings. Shareholders of clothing firm Daidoh Ltd. supported three board candidates proposed by Japanese fund Strategic Capital Inc., and the president of Toyo Securities Co. withdrew his candidacy for reappointment due to lack of shareholder support.

The movement of the Topix index indicates the bottoming out and an all-time high of the Japanese market as a whole, unlike the Nikkei 225, which is biased toward certain stocks.

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Focus Shifts to FOMC Minutes

Asian Shares and US Futures Fall on Tech Losses

Asian Shares and US Futures Fall on Tech Losses

Asian shares fell alongside European and US stock-index futures after Micron Technology Inc.’s sales outlook missed the highest forecasts, impacting major tech companies in late Wall Street trading. Stocks in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and China all declined, pushing the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge toward its first loss in three days.

The yen recovered some losses after dropping to 160.87 per dollar on Wednesday, its weakest level since 1986. An emerging-market currency gauge neared a two-month low, and an Asian currency index fell to levels last seen in 2022 as the dollar strengthened. Treasuries continued to decline amid concerns that Friday’s US PCE data would show persistent inflation.

“It’s all about the Fed—higher rates for longer are keeping short-term rates high, drawing money into the US and strengthening the dollar,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities LLC. For Japan, “it’s a problem,” he added.

MSCI Inc.‘s key gauge for Chinese stocks is headed for a technical correction as traders struggle to find catalysts ahead of a July meeting of the nation’s top leaders. The MSCI China Index fell up to 2% on Thursday, marking a nearly 10% decline since its May 20 high.

The yen strengthened from a 38-year low after Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki remarked that “one-sided moves in the foreign exchange market were not desirable as currencies should reflect fundamentals.” The currency had dropped 0.7% on Wednesday.

Micron Technology shares dropped in extended US trading after the computer memory chip maker disappointed investors hoping for gains from the AI computing boom. This news also pulled down other chipmakers, including Nvidia Corp.

Wall Street’s latest attempt to broaden beyond megacap stocks was short-lived, with various measures showing weak market breadth, increasing uncertainty about the rally’s sustainability. The disparity between S&P 500 performance and breadth is among the worst in three decades, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

“The stock market is overly reliant on big tech,” said David Bahnsen at The Bahnsen Group. “Whether the recent tech volatility is the start of something deeper or a future reckoning remains to be seen, but excessive investor sentiment and overdone momentum always end the same way.”

Elsewhere, Asia Pacific companies and governments’ sales of dollar bonds in the primary market hit a nine-month high this week. Issuers aim to lock in historically tight spreads before they rise further. The Korean government and other issuers sold over $5.5 billion of notes on Wednesday, pushing the week’s total close to $14 billion, according to Bloomberg data.

In commodities, gold steadied after a two-day decline, while oil traded in a narrow range ahead of the next round of US economic data.

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Asian Stocks Climb Following Wall Street

Asian Stocks Climb Following Wall Street, Nvidia Falls Amid Cooling AI Hype

Asian Stocks Climb Following Wall Street, Nvidia Falls Amid Cooling AI Hype

Asian stocks experienced a rise on Tuesday, even as mixed results were observed on Wall Street, primarily due to a further decline in Nvidia amid cooling enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Despite the fall of this tech giant, the majority of U.S. stocks managed to rally, leading to higher U.S. futures and stable oil prices.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index saw a significant 1% jump to 39,190.97 following the release of data from the Bank of Japan, which indicated a 2.5% increase in the services producer price index for May year-over-year. This marked a slight deceleration from April’s 2.7% rise. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar, which drew considerable attention in the forex markets.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose by 0.5% to 18,109.80, while the Shanghai Composite index experienced a minor setback, dipping 0.3% to 2,953.95. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased by 1.2% to 7,829.70, and South Korea’s Kospi added 0.4% to 2,774.54. In other parts of Asia, Taiwan’s Taiex and the SET in Bangkok both enjoyed modest gains.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 dropped slightly by 0.3% to 5,447.87, primarily dragged down by Nvidia’s 6.7% fall, marking its third consecutive day of losses. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fared better, climbing 0.7% to 39,411.21. The Nasdaq composite was pulled down 1.1% to 17,496.82, reflecting the decline in tech stocks.

The energy sector, however, stood out positively, with stocks such as Exxon Mobil and SLB posting gains of 3% and 4%, respectively. Financial stocks also showed strength, with JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo recording increases ahead of upcoming stress test results from the Federal Reserve.

Nvidia’s recent declines have sparked concerns over a potential bubble in the AI sector, as its stock has soared by 1,000% since late 2022, largely driven by the demand for its AI chips. This rapid growth has led to fears of overly high expectations among investors. Moreover, Nvidia’s significant market size means that its stock movements have a pronounced impact on the S&P 500 and other indices.

Other companies that have benefited from the AI boom also saw some retrenchment. For instance, Super Micro Computer’s shares dropped by 8.6%, pulling its year-to-date gains down to below 200%.

In the bond market, Treasury yields slightly decreased, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropping to 4.23% from 4.26%. This decrease is part of a broader trend of falling yields since late April, buoyed by hopes that easing inflation might prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later in the year.

Overall, the market dynamics reflect a mix of optimism and caution, with sector rotations suggesting a healthy adjustment despite the overarching influence of a few large companies on overall market performance.

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Chinese Bond Market Heats Up

Chinese Bond Market Heats Up: Firm Considers 50-Year Sale

Amid an unprecedented boom in bond issuance as borrowing costs plummet to record lows, a state-owned Chinese firm is contemplating an unprecedented offering of a 50-year note. This potential issuance would mark the nation’s longest corporate debt tenor if it comes to fruition.

Wuxi Industry Development Group Co., which is owned by the Wuxi city government near Shanghai, has engaged underwriters to gauge investor interest for a possible 1 billion yuan ($138 million) 50-year domestic bond sale. According to insiders, the deal is still in its early stages, and terms, including the tenor, may change.

If this bond with a 50-year maturity is issued and priced, it would set a new record for the longest-tenor corporate note ever in China’s local market, excluding perpetual securities, according to Bloomberg data.

Such an ultra-long tenor is exceptionally rare in corporate markets both in China and globally. However, firms are eager to secure cheap financing as China’s bond yields and credit spreads hit record lows. Investors are pouring funds into fixed-income assets, despite warnings from the central bank about a potential asset bubble.

The duration considered by Wuxi Industry is unusual even in China’s low-rate environment. More issuances with long tenors could follow, especially from local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). Senior Asia credit strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., Ting Meng, noted that extending maturities with long-tenor loans and bonds could be a strategy to address LGFVs’ high debt problems. However, she warned that issuers’ credit and duration could pose risks if interest rates rise in the future.

Previously, only a few state-owned firms in China have issued 30-year corporate notes, which, until now, represent the longest tenor excluding perpetuals. Earlier this month, Wuxi Industry priced a 1 billion yuan, 30-year local bond at 3.23%.

The yield premium for 30-year AAA-rated corporate bonds over comparable sovereign debt has narrowed to a record low of 20 basis points this week, based on China Bond indexes compiled by Bloomberg.

Wuxi Industry, whose operations span semiconductors, trade, and investment, declined to comment on the matter. The company reported a profit of 1.9 billion yuan last year, according to its website. 

As China’s bond market continues to heat up, the potential issuance of a 50-year bond by Wuxi Industry Development Group could set a significant precedent, highlighting the trend of leveraging low borrowing costs to secure long-term financing. This move not only reflects the strategic financial maneuvers of Chinese firms but also signals a broader trend that could shape the future of corporate debt issuance in China.

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Nvidia

Nvidia Overtakes Apple in $71 Billion ETF Reshuffle

Nvidia Overtakes Apple in $71 Billion ETF Reshuffle

One of the most significant technology ETFs, the $71 billion Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), managed by State Street Global Advisors, is expected to undergo a major rebalancing that will significantly increase its exposure to Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) at the expense of Apple Inc. (AAPL). This change, set by the index provider S&P Dow Jones Indices, is likely to generate billions in trading volume due to the adjustments.

Nvidia, which has seen a remarkable 166% increase in its market value year-to-date, has been underrepresented in XLK compared to its standing in the S&P 500 Information Technology Index. Currently, Nvidia holds about 6% of XLK’s assets versus 22% in the broader index, a discrepancy due to diversification rules that cap individual stock ownership.

The upcoming quarterly rebalance at the end of June is anticipated to shift the weightings dramatically, with Apple’s share within the ETF dropping to 4.5% and Nvidia’s increasing to over 20%. This adjustment requires State Street to buy approximately $11 billion in Nvidia shares and sell about $12 billion of Apple shares, a move that reflects the average daily trading volume of Apple over the past three months.

This rebalance aims to better align XLK with current market trends, particularly in the semiconductor sector. The methodology of the ETF ensures it adheres to diversification rules that prevent concentrated investments, which have been in place for over 80 years to protect investors.

Moreover, the rules set by S&P allow for possible exceptions in their application, which could lead to deviations from the planned rebalance. This possibility and the consequential trades are a focus for investors, as shifts in index compositions are a critical strategy in hedge fund trading.

The anticipation around this rebalance is significant due to the potential market volatility it could induce. The exact adjustments in ETF composition often drive strategic trading decisions in anticipation of such changes. The approach to this rebalance and any potential deviations from the set rules will be closely watched by the market, especially considering the implications for upcoming rebalances in September and beyond.

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Chinese Stocks Fall Amid Economic Worries

Chinese Stocks Fall Amid Economic Worries

Chinese Stocks Fall Amid Economic Worries

Chinese stocks fell sharply following a long weekend, with negative developments dampening market sentiment. The CSI 300 Index of mainland shares declined by as much as 1.4% after the markets reopened post the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. In Hong Kong, the index of Chinese shares was one of Asia’s largest losers, dropping up to 2%.

The downturn was triggered by several factors including subdued travel spending and renewed concerns over the property sector, which cast doubts on the durability of China’s economic rebound. Additionally, geopolitical risks impacted shares of electric vehicle manufacturers as markets anticipated the European Commission’s decision on provisional duties.

Analysts pointed out that the recent holiday weekend failed to generate strong consumption, a contrast to the robust activity seen during the May golden week. This was coupled with inconsistent property sales, further straining investor confidence. This follows a series of disappointing economic indicators such as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and import figures.

Despite an 8.1% year-on-year rise in domestic tourism spending during the holiday, the overall momentum appeared to weaken compared to other recent holidays. According to Citigroup analysts Brian Gong and Alicia Yap, the average expenditure per traveler remained low, negatively affecting travel-related stocks like Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.

Efforts by authorities to stabilize the property market did not improve investor sentiment. Dexin China Holdings Co., a property developer, was the latest to be wound up, pushing developer stocks into a technical bear market despite a comprehensive support package from the central government announced last week.

The initial stock rally in China is showing signs of faltering, with a key index on the Shanghai stock exchange nearing an important psychological threshold for the first time since late-March on a closing basis.

Market participants are now looking for more decisive measures to support the market, having been underwhelmed by recent interventions. Attention is also turning to the upcoming third plenum in July, a secretive high-level meeting expected to provide clues on possible policy changes and measures to bolster the slowing economy.

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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US Core PCE Inflation Likely to Hold Steady

Pound Sterling Steady Ahead of US Core PCE Inflation Data

Pound Sterling Steady Ahead of US Core PCE Inflation Data

The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains subdued against the US Dollar (USD) during Friday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair has edged down this week as investors exercise caution ahead of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for May, set to be released today.

The core PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, is projected to have slowed to 2.6% year-over-year (YoY) from April’s 2.8%. On a monthly basis, the underlying inflation is expected to have increased modestly by 0.1%, compared to the previous rise of 0.2%.

Soft inflation figures could raise expectations for early rate cuts by the Fed, while higher-than-expected numbers would likely diminish prospects for rate cuts, thereby strengthening the US Dollar. Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is trading near the critical resistance level of 106.00.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day fed funds futures pricing data indicate that traders have priced in two rate cuts for this year, with the policy-easing cycle expected to begin at the September meeting. However, Fed officials have been advocating for maintaining current interest rates until there is clear evidence that inflation is on a steady decline towards the target rate of 2%.

On Thursday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated that it is not yet appropriate to reduce interest rates, warning of potential further rate hikes if progress in reducing inflation stalls or reverses. This stance underscores the Fed’s cautious approach to policy changes, aiming to ensure that inflation trends are firmly under control before considering any rate cuts.

As the market awaits the core PCE data, the GBP/USD pair is likely to continue experiencing subdued trading. Investors will be closely watching the inflation figures to gauge the Fed’s next moves, which will significantly influence the USD’s strength and the GBP/USD pair’s direction in the near term.

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Australian Dollar Rises as Higher Inflation

Australian Dollar Rises as Higher Inflation Lowers RBA Rate Cut Odds

Australian Dollar Rises as Higher Inflation Lowers RBA Rate Cut Odds

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has gained traction following the release of May’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which came in higher than expected. This persistently high inflation poses a challenge to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) potential rate cuts, thereby providing support to the Aussie Dollar and underpinning the AUD/USD pair.

RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent highlighted on Wednesday the importance of vigilance regarding potential inflation increases. Kent emphasized that current policies are effectively contributing to slower demand growth and lower inflation. He also noted that the RBA is keeping all options open concerning future interest rate adjustments, as reported by Bloomberg.

This rise in the AUD comes as the US Dollar remains steady after posting gains on Tuesday. Investors are cautious ahead of significant US economic data releases later this week. The revised US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) is set to be released on Thursday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. These data points are critical as they will provide insights into the health of the US economy and influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.

The stronger-than-expected CPI data in Australia reflects ongoing inflationary pressures, which complicates the RBA’s policy path. With inflation remaining high, the central bank may be less inclined to cut interest rates, a factor that supports the AUD. Investors are now weighing the implications of these inflation figures on future RBA decisions, particularly in the context of global economic uncertainty.

In the US, the market is anticipating the GDP and PCE Price Index data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next moves. A robust GDP report could reinforce the case for a continued pause in rate hikes, whereas a weaker report might revive expectations for potential easing. Similarly, the PCE Price Index, being the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, will be closely watched. A higher reading could lead to a more hawkish stance from the Fed, while a lower figure might ease some inflation concerns.

Overall, the interplay between the Australian and US economic data is creating a dynamic environment for the AUD/USD pair. As traders digest these developments, the focus remains on central bank policies and their responses to inflationary pressures. The outcome of this week’s economic reports will be crucial in shaping the near-term direction of both currencies.

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Australian Dollar Falls Despite RBA's Hawkish Outlook

Australian Dollar Falls Despite RBA’s Hawkish Outlook

Australian Dollar Falls Despite RBA’s Hawkish Outlook

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its downward trend for the third consecutive session on Monday, yet there are indications that the decline in the AUD/USD exchange rate might be moderated by the monetary policy outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). During a recent press conference, as reported by ABC News, RBA Governor Michele Bullock explicitly mentioned that the Board is considering potential rate hikes in the future, rather than cuts, highlighting a hawkish stance in their monetary policy approach.

On the other side, the US Dollar (USD) holds its ground, remaining stable as Federal Reserve officials have pushed back the timeline for the year’s first anticipated rate cut. The adjustment in expectations was quantified by the CME FedWatch Tool, which now indicates that investors are pricing in a nearly 65.9% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, a decrease from 70.2% just a week earlier. This recalibration in investor expectations reflects a broader trend of cautious optimism and strategic adjustments among market participants, influencing the interplay between the AUD and USD as each navigates its respective economic signals and policy directions.

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Australian Dollar Rises on Strong PMI Data

Australian Dollar Rises on Strong PMI Data and Softer US Dollar

Australian Dollar Rises on Strong PMI Data and Softer US Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) saw mild gains during Thursday’s Asian session, edging higher following the release of the Australian Judo Bank PMI report. The report indicated that business activity in Australia continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in March and April. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent decision to maintain a hawkish stance on interest rates is likely to support the AUD in the near term.

However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose potential risks. Israeli officials have reiterated their readiness for an all-out war against Hezbollah, which could drive investors towards safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar (USD). Such geopolitical uncertainties often lead to increased demand for the USD, as it is considered a safer asset during times of conflict.

Looking ahead, the focus will shift to the advanced US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI data set to be released on Friday. If this data shows an improvement in US business activity for June, it could further bolster the Greenback. Stronger US economic data typically supports the USD by increasing expectations of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This scenario could create a headwind for the AUD/USD pair, potentially limiting the Australian Dollar’s gains.

Despite these potential challenges, the AUD remains supported by domestic factors. The Australian Judo Bank PMI report, while showing a slowdown, still indicates growth in business activity. This resilience, coupled with the RBA’s hawkish stance, provides a solid foundation for the AUD. The central bank’s commitment to maintaining a tight monetary policy reflects confidence in the Australian economy’s underlying strength, which is likely to continue bolstering the currency.

In summary, the Australian Dollar is experiencing moderate gains supported by domestic economic data and the RBA’s monetary policy stance. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and upcoming US economic data could influence the AUD/USD pair’s direction. Traders will need to monitor these developments closely, as they could impact market sentiment and drive short-term fluctuations in the currency pair. The interplay between domestic resilience and external uncertainties will be crucial in determining the AUD’s trajectory in the coming days.

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Australian Dollar Rises on RBA's Hawkish Stance

Australian Dollar Rises on RBA’s Hawkish Stance

Australian Dollar Rises on RBA’s Hawkish Stance

The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged on Wednesday, driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance during its June meeting. The RBA’s decision to maintain current interest rates while signaling a prolonged period before any rate cuts has pushed market expectations for the start of the easing cycle to 2025. This outlook continues to support the AUD, providing it with significant upward momentum.

In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) is facing downward pressure due to weaker-than-expected Retail Sales data, which has increased the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates later this year. This data has undermined the Greenback across the board, adding to the AUD’s gains.

The US markets are closed on Wednesday in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day, limiting immediate trading activity. However, investors are already looking ahead to the end of the week when the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI reports will be released. These reports are crucial indicators of US economic health, and any signs of expanding business activity could provide a lift to the USD, potentially capping the AUD’s current upward trend.

The RBA’s hawkish hold has been a significant factor in the AUD’s recent performance. By maintaining rates and signaling a delay in the easing cycle, the RBA has reinforced market confidence in the Australian economy. This stance contrasts with the Fed’s, which is increasingly seen as likely to implement rate cuts in response to softer economic data. The divergence in central bank policies is a key driver of the current currency movements.

In addition to central bank policies, economic data releases continue to play a pivotal role. The weaker US Retail Sales figures have cast doubt on the strength of the US economic recovery, fueling speculation about potential Fed rate cuts. Conversely, robust Australian economic data supports the RBA’s decision to hold rates steady and delay any easing.

Looking ahead, the focus will shift to the upcoming US PMI reports. Positive data indicating growth in US business activity could bolster the USD, limiting the AUD’s gains. However, if the data disappoints, it could further pressure the USD and support the AUD.

In summary, the Australian Dollar is benefiting from the RBA’s hawkish stance and weaker US economic data, which have shifted market expectations for both currencies. The upcoming US PMI reports will be crucial in determining the near-term direction for the AUD/USD pair.

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China's May Retail Sales Exceed Expectations

China’s May Retail Sales Exceed Expectations; Industrial Output and Investment Lag

China’s May Retail Sales Exceed Expectations; Industrial Output and Investment Lag

In May, China’s retail sales outperformed expectations, increasing by 3.7% year-on-year, surpassing the anticipated 3% rise forecasted by a Reuters poll of economists. This robust retail performance indicates resilient consumer spending despite broader economic challenges.

However, other key economic indicators did not fare as well. Industrial output grew by 5.6% year-on-year, falling short of the 6% growth expected. Fixed asset investment also missed forecasts, rising by only 4% compared to last May, just below the anticipated 4.2% increase. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.92 trillion yuan ($540.32 billion), with urban area sales up 3.7% and rural area sales climbing by 4.1%.

The shortfall in fixed asset investment was significantly influenced by a sharper decline in real estate investment. Excluding real estate, total fixed asset investment was 8.6% higher compared to the previous year. This highlights the ongoing struggles within China’s real estate sector, which continues to drag on overall investment figures.

The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5% in May, unchanged from April, and 0.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year. This steady unemployment rate suggests a relatively stable labor market amid fluctuating economic conditions.

China’s export sector showed strength, with exports growing by 7.6% year-on-year in May, exceeding the forecasted 6% increase. However, imports underperformed, rising by only 1.8%, missing expectations.

Loan data released Friday highlighted a continued lackluster demand for credit. Outstanding yuan loans increased by 9.3% in May from the previous year, marking the slowest growth on record since 1978. The M1 money supply, which includes cash in circulation and demand deposits, fell by 4.2% year-on-year in May, the steepest decline since records began in 1986. Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that a state media outlet linked the slowdown in M1 growth to a crackdown on fake loans and outflows related to wealth management products.

Inflation data for May showed that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year. This modest inflation increase indicates subdued price pressures within the broader economy, reflecting the mixed economic signals from various sectors.

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Japanese Yen's Downside Limited

Japanese Yen’s Downside Limited by Rising Producer Prices

Japanese Yen’s Downside Limited by Rising Producer Prices

The Japanese Yen (JPY) extended its losing streak for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY pair strengthening as investors favored the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision and the release of US inflation figures for May, scheduled for later in the North American trading hours.

The Japanese Yen might find some support from higher-than-expected Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The latest data revealed that producer prices surged by 2.4% year-on-year in May, surpassing market expectations of a 2.0% rise. This increase in producer prices has raised concerns about potential higher consumer inflation, which could influence future monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Despite the rise in producer prices, the BoJ is widely expected to maintain its current monetary policy stance unchanged on Friday. The divergence in interest rates between the US and Japan continues to undermine the Japanese Yen. The Fed’s tighter monetary policy contrasts sharply with the BoJ’s ongoing commitment to maintaining low-interest rates, creating a supportive environment for the USD/JPY pair.

The strength of the US Dollar is further bolstered by robust US economic data. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against six major currencies, remains strong. Recent US jobs data for May showed significant employment gains, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September by at least 25 basis points has decreased to 52%, down from 67% a week earlier.

Investors are now closely watching the upcoming US inflation data. A higher inflation reading could further diminish expectations for a Fed rate cut, potentially providing additional support for the USD. Conversely, if inflation data comes in lower than expected, it might renew market speculation about possible rate cuts later in the year, which could influence the USD/JPY pair.

In the meantime, the Japanese Yen’s downside might be limited by the unexpected rise in producer prices, which suggests underlying inflationary pressures in Japan. If these pressures translate into higher consumer prices, the BoJ may face increasing calls to adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy, which could lend support to the Yen.

Overall, the interplay between US monetary policy expectations and Japanese inflation data will be crucial in determining the direction of the USD/JPY pair in the near term. Investors will continue to monitor these factors closely, as any significant shifts could lead to notable movements in the currency markets.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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