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Gold Price Pressured Near Daily Low Amid Trump-Driven USD Strength

Gold Price Pressured Near Daily Low Amid Trump-Driven USD Strength

Gold Price Pressured Near Daily Low Amid Trump-Driven USD Strength

Gold (XAU/USD) continues last week’s slide, facing additional selling pressure for a second day on Monday amid a robust US Dollar (USD) outlook. Optimism over US President-elect Donald Trump’s anticipated expansionary policies has bolstered the USD, pushing it near a four-month high reached last week, which in turn dampens demand for gold.

Trump’s proposal for a 10% tariff on all US imports is expected to drive inflation higher and constrain the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ability to adopt aggressive easing measures. Elevated US Treasury bond yields have supported this outlook, prompting investors to move away from non-yielding assets like gold. However, a cautious market sentiment may help contain further losses for the safe-haven metal.

With key events on the horizon, including the latest US inflation data and speeches from prominent FOMC members like Fed Chair Jerome Powell, traders may adopt a wait-and-see approach. This caution could prevent a further extension of gold’s recent sharp pullback from the $2,800 mark, an all-time high set on October 31.

Gold Price Bears in Control as USD Holds Firm

Gold’s sharp weekly decline—the steepest in over five months—has been fueled by the USD rally and rising Treasury yields following Trump’s election victory. Enthusiasm surrounding the so-called “Trump trade” continues to boost the Greenback, exerting downward pressure on gold as equity markets remain upbeat.

Last week, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, hinting at potential further easing. Despite this, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized the need for more evidence of inflation returning to the 2% target before considering further cuts. Expectations that Trump’s protectionist policies may amplify global trade tensions could also offer support to the safe-haven XAU/USD.

With upcoming US inflation, producer price, and retail sales reports, as well as key comments from Fed officials, investors may avoid large positions, awaiting new cues that will shape the USD’s direction and influence gold’s trajectory.

Technical Outlook: Gold Remains Near Multi-Week Low with Key Support Levels

Technically, further declines in gold may find support around $2,660, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) positioned near $2,647-2,746. A break below last week’s low of $2,643 could trigger increased bearish sentiment, potentially accelerating the decline toward the October low of $2,605-2,602.

On the upside, a move above $2,700 could face strong resistance at the $2,718 level, with a further hurdle in the $2,740-2,745 supply zone. Sustained strength beyond this range could signal the end of the corrective phase, potentially driving gold toward $2,758-2,790 and challenging the record high set on October 31.

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Japanese Yen Stabilizes Against USD Amid Mixed Market Signals

Japanese Yen Stabilizes Against USD Amid Mixed Market Signals

Japanese Yen Stabilizes Against USD Amid Mixed Market Signals

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains range-bound against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, fluctuating between slight gains and losses in early European trading. Despite recent verbal intervention from Japanese authorities to support the JPY, skepticism around the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to implement further rate hikes limits the currency’s upward potential.

Optimism around potential growth and inflation from Trump’s economic policies also provides a tailwind for US Treasury yields, overshadowing the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance. This, combined with renewed buying interest in the USD, helps cushion the USD/JPY pair from further declines.

Yen Under Pressure Despite Intervention and Economic Data Weakness

On Friday, Japanese government data revealed a second consecutive month of declines in household spending, with a 1.3% drop in September, following a similar trend in inflation-adjusted wages. These economic headwinds may challenge the BoJ’s ability to pursue additional rate hikes.

Further impacting the Yen, Japanese officials reiterated their commitment to monitoring the foreign exchange market closely. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi emphasized a high level of urgency, while Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura indicated the government’s readiness to counter excessive currency movements. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato expressed concern over the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on Japan’s domestic economy.

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair rebounded above 154.00 following Trump’s election victory, prompting verbal intervention from Japan’s leadership. Quarterly data from the Ministry of Finance (MOF) revealed ¥5.53 trillion spent on currency interventions between June and July.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Maintains Bullish Bias Above Key Support Levels

Technically, the USD/JPY’s recent dip found support near the 152.70–152.65 level, a pivotal area that may now act as a buffer. A break below this could accelerate a correction towards the 152.00 mark, with further downside potentially reaching the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 151.70–151.65. Continued selling pressure would signal that the pair’s strong recent uptrend has stalled, opening the door for deeper declines.

On the upside, resistance is expected around the 153.50 level, followed by a key supply zone near 153.85–153.90. A move back above 154.00 could position the pair to retest Thursday’s multi-month high around 154.70, with momentum potentially extending to the psychological 155.00 level and the 155.20 zone, which aligns with the July 30 swing high.

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Gold Price Sinks to Multi-Week Low as Trump Victory Spurs Sharp USD Rally

Gold Price Sinks to Multi-Week Low as Trump Victory Spurs Sharp USD Rally

Gold (XAU/USD) faces heavy selling pressure in Wednesday’s European session, dropping to the $2,700 level—its lowest in nearly three weeks. Republican candidate Donald Trump is leading the US presidential race, positioning him as the likely 47th president, which has sparked a strong US Dollar (USD) rally and triggered aggressive gold sell-offs.

Additionally, concerns over deficit spending and expectations of less aggressive easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) are pushing US Treasury yields higher, making gold less attractive as a non-yielding asset. The risk-on sentiment, illustrated by a strong rally in US equity futures, further signals a downward bias for the safe-haven XAU/USD.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold Price Hit by Persistent USD Buying

The US Dollar surged to a four-month high as US election exit polls indicate momentum in favor of former President Donald Trump. The current electoral tally stands at 227 for Trump and 189 for Harris, with Trump leading in key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Fox News reports a Republican-controlled Senate, as Trump-endorsed candidate Bernie Moreno is projected to win in Ohio.

With Trump performing strongly, speculation over inflationary tariffs and deficit-spending has driven US Treasury yields higher. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield spiked nearly 15 basis points, reaching 4.44%, its highest since early July. The reduced uncertainty surrounding the US election has intensified risk-on trading, adding pressure on safe-haven gold.

Geopolitical concerns, including Iran’s potential retaliation against Israel for an October 26 attack, have had limited impact on gold’s recent decline.

Technical Outlook: Gold Price Tests Key Support Levels

From a technical perspective, the $2,725-2,720 zone remains critical support; a drop below this could see gold accelerate toward sub-$2,700 levels, marking the lower edge of an ascending channel from late July. A decisive break below could lead to further declines toward the next key support at $2,675, and potentially to the $2,657-2,655 area.

Conversely, resistance has formed around $2,748-2,750. A sustained move above this could push gold toward the ascending channel resistance near $2,780-2,785, with $2,800 acting as a pivotal level. A strong breakout beyond $2,800 could signal a continuation of the previous uptrend.

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Australian Dollar Holds Gains Following Hawkish RBA Comments, Focus Shifts to US Election

Australian Dollar Holds Gains Following Hawkish RBA Comments, Focus Shifts to US Election

Australian Dollar Holds Gains Following Hawkish RBA Comments, Focus Shifts to US Election

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains steady after gains from improved Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% for an eighth consecutive pause in November, and it’s expected to maintain current rates following this policy decision.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted the importance of maintaining restrictive interest rates amid ongoing inflation risks. Although the labor market remains tight, wage growth is showing signs of moderation.

In Australia, Judo Bank’s Services PMI rose to 51.0 in October, exceeding the market consensus of 50.6, while the Composite PMI climbed to 50.2 from 49.8. China’s Caixin Services PMI also improved, rising to 52.0 in October from 50.3 in September, signaling a broader regional economic uplift.

As attention turns to the US presidential election, investors are closely monitoring its outcome. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris made final campaign stops in Pennsylvania on Monday, both expressing confidence in an exceptionally close race. Opinion polls show a virtual tie, with the final results potentially delayed for days. Trump has hinted at contesting any unfavorable result, as he did in 2020.

The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure amid election uncertainties, with a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leading Trump by a narrow margin in Iowa, 47% to 44%. Markets are also awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision on Thursday, with expectations for a modest 25 basis point rate cut, backed by a 99.5% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Australian inflation indicators are mixed, with the TD-MI Inflation Gauge rising by 0.3% month-over-month in October, the highest since July. ANZ Australia Job Advertisements grew by 0.3% in October, a slowdown from September’s revised 2.3% gain. Despite weaker growth, job advertisements have risen for two consecutive months.

In other news, China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australia’s Trade Minister Don Farrell on Sunday to discuss enhancing bilateral trade and ensuring fair treatment for Chinese businesses in Australia.

In US employment data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a modest 12,000 increase in October’s Nonfarm Payrolls, significantly below expectations of 113,000. However, the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%, in line with forecasts.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Holds Below 0.6600 with Bearish Trend Indications

AUD/USD trades near 0.6590 on Tuesday, with technical indicators suggesting the bearish trend may be easing as it tests the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, indicating the bearish sentiment persists.

On the resistance side, AUD/USD faces immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA at 0.6596, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6618. A break above these levels could see the pair aim for the psychological level of 0.6700.

On the downside, support lies near the three-month low of 0.6536, with further support at the key psychological level of 0.6500 if bearish pressure resumes.

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Australian Dollar Steady Amid RBA’s Restrictive Policy Outlook

Australian Dollar remains subdued as US Dollar inches higher ahead of US PCE Price Index

Australian Dollar remains subdued as US Dollar inches higher ahead of US PCE Price Index

The Australian Dollar lingered in that strange, somber limbo it often found itself in, steady yet subdued against the mighty Greenback as Thursday dawned over the global market. Beneath the surface, there was a story in each data point, and the numbers came in trickling like beads of dew.

In Australia, retail sales lifted only by a whisper, 0.1% in September—fragile and disappointing, falling far short of the golden 0.3% expected, and a pale echo of August’s more confident 0.7%. Yet the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish stance lent the Aussie Dollar a quiet backbone, helping it hold its ground even in the face of the looming U.S. PCE Price Index.

Across the Pacific, the U.S. Dollar gathered momentum with an aura of steadfast resilience as markets weighed in on the uncertainty, the shadows of the upcoming U.S. presidential election casting a long reflection over the currency. Yet even the Greenback found headwinds as U.S. growth data came in, slower than last quarter, reminding investors of the delicate line between expectations and reality.

China’s PMI figures trickled in with cautious optimism—the Manufacturing PMI edged above fifty, a shy ascent to 50.1, modestly outperforming the expectation, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI held its stance with a gentle rise to 50.2. The ADP report from the U.S. cast a brighter hue, with job growth well beyond the forecasts—a glimmer of vibrancy in an otherwise cautious economy.

Technical analysts cast a wary eye on the charts; AUD/USD hovered, almost defiantly, near 0.6570. The bearish trend traced its course along a descending channel, while the 14-day RSI lingered just above thirty, hinting at sentiment as overcast as a gray autumn morning. If the pair ventured south, it might test 0.6510, even touching the hallowed psychological 0.6500. And if resistance came calling? The journey might meander up to 0.6580 or the elusive 0.6600, where, in whispers, a breakout toward 0.6608 could still glisten on the horizon like an ephemeral Gatsby green light.

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Japanese Yen Struggles as BoJ Decision Looms; US Data in Focus

Japanese Yen Struggles as BoJ Decision Looms; US Data in Focus

The Japanese Yen (JPY) edged higher against the US Dollar during the Asian session on Wednesday, but gains remain limited as the currency hovers near a three-month low. Concerns that Japanese authorities may intervene to support the Yen lend it some resilience; however, uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) upcoming rate decision keeps JPY appreciation capped.

Market sentiment suggests the recent loss of parliamentary majority by Japan’s ruling coalition may hinder the BoJ’s ability to tighten policy. The Yen’s upward movement is further limited by a global risk-on environment and a resurgence in US Dollar (USD) demand, with traders awaiting the BoJ’s rate decision and critical US economic data releases this week for new market direction.

Market Movers: Yen’s Struggles Persist as Political and Economic Concerns Grow

Japan’s Economy Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, cautioned that a weak Yen could drive up prices via import costs, potentially squeezing household incomes if wages do not keep pace, which would dampen private consumption. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato added that authorities are closely monitoring currency movements, increasing speculation of potential intervention.

Japan’s political uncertainty adds complexity to the BoJ’s policy path, restraining any significant gains for the Yen amid a favorable risk appetite. The USD remains steady after nearing highs seen since July 30, while the USD/JPY pair holds close to recent peaks despite limited downside in anticipation of central bank announcements.

The BoJ will announce its policy decision at the end of its two-day meeting on Thursday, while key US data releases may provide additional cues on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. Recent robust US data, including Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Index jump to 108.7—a nine-month high—reflect optimism in the economy, offsetting weaker job openings in September.

Technical Outlook: Limited Downside for USD/JPY; Bulls Target a Break Beyond 154.00

From a technical standpoint, last week’s breakout above the 150.65 confluence, marking the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-September decline, suggests potential for further gains. However, recent failures to consolidate beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci level raise caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers near the overbought zone, suggesting a period of consolidation or slight pullback may be needed before additional upside.

Support levels emerge at 153.00, with further potential down to 152.40 and 152.00. Conversely, a breakout beyond the 154.00 threshold could push USD/JPY to test the 154.35-154.40 region, with the psychological 155.00 level in view, and potentially the July peak around 155.20.

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Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Month

Japanese Yen Faces Selling Pressure Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty

Japanese Yen Faces Selling Pressure Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty

The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces challenges to start the week as market participants digest the implications of Japan’s general election results. Meanwhile, the only data on the U.S. docket is the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ Texas Manufacturing Business Index for October. Later in the day, the U.S. Treasury will auction 2-year and 5-year notes, events closely watched by investors for potential impact on yields and the USD.

In a surprising election outcome, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in power since 1955, lost its majority for the first time in 15 years, heightening economic and political uncertainty. According to NHK, the ruling LDP and coalition partner Komeito secured only 215 out of 465 lower house seats, short of the 233 needed for a majority. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) gained significantly, winning 148 seats, up from 98.

Following this development, USD/JPY opened the week with a bullish gap, touching a near three-month high around 154.00 before trading slightly lower at 153.50, marking a 0.7% daily gain. Reflecting broader Yen weakness, EUR/JPY is up over 0.6% at 165.50, and GBP/JPY has climbed 0.7% to 198.70.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed last week with a solid gain, rising more than 0.8% and edging higher toward 104.50 in early Monday trading, supported by positive U.S. stock index futures indicating an improved risk sentiment.

In other markets, EUR/USD extended its downtrend on Friday, marking a fourth consecutive week of losses. The pair holds steady near 1.0800 as the European session begins on Monday. GBP/USD remained in a consolidation phase around 1.2950 after losing recovery momentum on Friday.

Meanwhile, gold saw bullish momentum on Friday, climbing back from a dip below $2,720. XAU/USD remains range-bound early Monday, trading below $2,750 as it struggles to establish a clear directional move.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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WTI Trades with Modest Losses Below $77.00, Downside Potential Limited

WTI Trades with Modest Losses Below $77.00, Downside Potential Limited

WTI Trades with Modest Losses Below $77.00, Downside Potential Limited

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are struggling to build on the previous day’s rebound from weekly lows, trading with a slight negative bias during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity is currently around the $76.70 mark, down 0.25% for the day, but remains poised for modest gains for the second consecutive week.
The risk of supply disruptions remains high due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, strong US macroeconomic data released on Thursday has eased concerns about a downturn in the world’s largest economy. This, coupled with expectations that potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could stimulate economic activity and increase fuel consumption, may continue to support crude oil prices.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) is struggling to maintain the positive momentum it gained after the previous day’s data, amid speculation that the Fed might begin its rate-cutting cycle in September. The prevailing risk-on sentiment is also weighing on the safe-haven Greenback, which typically boosts demand for USD-denominated commodities like crude oil.

However, investor concerns about an economic slowdown in China, the world’s largest oil importer, persist. This is compounded by recent downgrades in oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 from both OPEC and the IEA. Additionally, an unexpected build in US oil inventories, indicating a potential cooling in demand, is acting as a headwind for crude oil prices, exerting downward pressure as the week comes to a close.

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Oil Retreats as Markets Shift Focus

Oil Retreats as Markets Shift Focus to Demand Concerns

Oil Retreats as Markets Shift Focus to Demand Concerns

Oil prices declined on Tuesday, ending a five-day rally as the market shifted its focus back to concerns over demand, following OPEC’s recent downward revision of its 2024 demand growth forecast due to weaker expectations in China.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures dropped by 57 cents, or 0.7%, to $81.73 a barrel at 0630 GMT. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 48 cents, or 0.6%, to $79.58 a barrel.

On Monday, Brent crude had surged by more than 3%, while U.S. crude futures had risen over 4%.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its global demand forecast for 2024 downward for the first time since July 2023, citing weaker demand indicators from China, including declining diesel consumption and a slowing property sector in the world’s second-largest economy. This revision poses a challenge for the broader OPEC+ group, which is set to increase production starting in October.

“Demand concerns for crude oil remain a significant factor,” said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG. He noted that apprehensions persist ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data, adding that any indication of rising economic risks could further pressure oil prices. With OPEC+ scaling back production cuts and reducing their demand forecast for 2024, there may be signs of a less constrained oil market in the near future.

Geopolitical tensions, however, continue to keep investors on edge. The situation in the Middle East has intensified, with the U.S. warning of potential significant attacks by Iran or its proxies in the region as early as this week. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby highlighted the possibility of such events on Monday. Any escalation could disrupt global crude supplies and drive prices higher. Analysts also pointed out that an attack could prompt the U.S. to impose embargoes on Iranian crude exports, potentially impacting 1.5 million barrels per day of supply.

Markets are also bracing for the release of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report on Wednesday, which is expected to provide crucial insights into inflation trends. Investors are concerned that a significantly lower CPI reading could amplify fears of an economic downturn. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, money markets are currently evenly split on the likelihood of a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of a total easing of 100 basis points by the end of 2024. Rate cuts typically boost economic activity, leading to increased demand for energy sources like oil.

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Gold Price Near Two-Week High Amid Upbeat Market Mood

Gold Price Near Two-Week High Amid Upbeat Market Mood

Gold Price Near Two-Week High Amid Upbeat Market Mood

During the Asian session on Thursday, the gold price (XAU/USD) maintained a positive bias and remained just below the nearly two-week high reached the previous day. However, the strong bullish sentiment across global equity markets acted as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal, particularly amid the relatively thin liquidity caused by the Independence Day holiday in the US. Traders appeared cautious and preferred to wait for the release of the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday before making new directional bets.

Despite this, the near-term outlook for gold seems favorable for bullish traders. There is a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates this year, which should support the non-yielding gold price. This sentiment is reinforced by softer US macroeconomic data published on Wednesday and the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The minutes revealed that most policymakers believe US economic growth is gradually cooling. This has strengthened the expectation that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in September and December, keeping the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and lending support to gold.

In addition to these factors, persistent geopolitical risks continue to validate the positive outlook for gold. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, and political uncertainty in the US and Europe all contribute to the demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, the overnight breakout through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicates that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD is to the upside.

The anticipation of the NFP report has made traders cautious, but the broader market sentiment leans towards a bullish trend for gold. Should the US employment data support the view of a slowing economy, it could further solidify expectations of Fed rate cuts, providing additional upward momentum for gold.

In summary, while global equity market strength and cautious trading ahead of the NFP report may limit immediate gains, the overall outlook for gold remains positive. The combination of anticipated Fed rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and technical indicators suggests that the gold price is likely to continue its upward trajectory in the near term.

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Gold Holds Steady Below 50-Day SMA, Awaits Fed Chair Powell's Speech

Gold Holds Steady Below 50-Day SMA, Awaits Fed Chair Powell’s Speech

Gold Holds Steady Below 50-Day SMA, Awaits Fed Chair Powell’s Speech

Gold prices (XAU/USD) faced fresh selling pressure during the Asian session on Tuesday, reversing the previous day’s gains and approaching the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a significant resistance level. The US Dollar (USD) gained traction as investors awaited more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut path, contributing to the downward pressure on gold. Additionally, a generally positive tone in the equity markets diverted flows away from the safe-haven precious metal.

Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of the Fed lowering borrowing costs in September and again in December. This expectation was bolstered by the US ISM PMI report released on Monday, which indicated that the manufacturing sector contracted for the third consecutive month in June. Prices paid by factories for inputs also dropped to a six-month low. Despite this, retreating US Treasury bond yields might limit the USD’s gains, potentially offering some support to gold prices. Furthermore, China’s economic challenges, geopolitical risks, and political uncertainty could also lend support to the precious metal.

Traders are likely to adopt a cautious stance ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later on Tuesday and the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. These events are expected to provide further insights into the Fed’s future policy direction. Additionally, the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due on Friday, will be critical in shaping expectations about the Fed’s next moves. The outcome of these key events will significantly influence market sentiment towards the USD and help determine the next directional move for gold prices.

In summary, gold prices are currently under pressure due to a stronger USD and positive equity market sentiment. However, the potential for future Fed rate cuts, economic uncertainties in China, and geopolitical risks could provide some support. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming speeches and reports for further guidance on the Fed’s policy, which will play a crucial role in the near-term outlook for gold prices.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Falls Below $80 on Unexpected US Crude Stockpile Increase

WTI Falls Below $80 on Unexpected US Crude Stockpile Increase

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edged lower to around $80.30 during the Asian session on Thursday, retreating further from a two-month high of $81.65. This decline was primarily driven by a surprise increase in US crude stockpiles, which raised concerns about weakening demand in the world’s top oil consumer.

On Wednesday, data from the US Energy Information Administration revealed that US crude oil stockpiles rose by 3.591 million barrels for the week ending June 21. This increase was contrary to market expectations, which had anticipated a 3.000 million-barrel decline. The unexpected build in inventories has put downward pressure on oil prices, signaling potential issues with demand.

Adding to the complexity, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine have the potential to influence oil prices further. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the most “intense” phase of the attack against Hamas in Gaza is nearing its end. Meanwhile, Russia condemned the US for a “barbaric” strike in Crimea, which utilized US-provided missiles. This attack resulted in the deaths of at least four people, including children, and injured 151 others. Such geopolitical conflicts can lead to supply disruptions, which typically drive oil prices higher, but current market conditions are dominated by the inventory build.

In a contrasting development, US crude oil imports surged last month to their highest level in nearly two years. Refiners have been acquiring heavy crudes from Canada and Latin America to produce fuels for the summer driving season. In May, US crude oil imports reached 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest since July 2022, according to ship tracking service Kpler. This trend has continued into June, with imports averaging around 2.9 million bpd, as reported by Reuters.

Despite the geopolitical tensions and increased imports, the immediate focus remains on the unexpected rise in US crude stockpiles, which suggests potential softness in demand. This scenario has led to a cautious outlook in the market, with traders and analysts closely monitoring inventory levels and geopolitical developments for future price movements.

In summary, WTI crude oil prices have softened due to an unexpected build in US crude inventories, overshadowing geopolitical tensions and robust import levels. The market remains vigilant, assessing how these factors will balance out in the coming weeks.

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Gold Price Dips Amid Cautious Federal Reserve Comments

Gold Price Dips Amid Cautious Federal Reserve Comments

Gold Price Dips Amid Cautious Federal Reserve Comments

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are seeing a rise in Tuesday’s trading, maintaining a positive trajectory despite a downtrend in the U.S. dollar. This uplift in gold is somewhat constrained by recent remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. After last week’s stronger-than-expected U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Fed policymakers have indicated a delay in anticipated interest rate cuts for the year, putting pressure on gold’s potential gains. However, the precious metal may find support from increased safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, which could drive its value up in the near term.

Investor attention is set to focus on upcoming speeches by Fed members. Both Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman are slated to address the public on Tuesday, and their comments are eagerly awaited for indications of the Fed’s future monetary policy direction. This week is also significant for U.S. economic data, with the final reading of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) due on Thursday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for May, scheduled for release on Friday. These data points are crucial as they provide insights into the economic health of the nation.

Any signs from these economic releases that suggest a slowing of inflation could alter market expectations, potentially leading to predictions of Fed rate cuts later in 2024. Such developments would likely weaken the U.S. dollar, subsequently providing a boost to USD-denominated gold. As markets digest these economic indicators and Fed communications, the trajectory of gold prices will depend heavily on the interplay between U.S. monetary policy expectations and global geopolitical dynamics. Investors will need to stay tuned to these key economic events and policy signals to gauge the future direction of gold prices effectively.

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Australian Dollar Dips Amid Renewed

Australian Dollar Dips Amid Renewed US Dollar Demand

Australian Dollar Dips Amid Renewed US Dollar Demand

On Thursday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced losses, trading in negative territory. Despite this, the currency’s downside may be limited due to the hawkish stance taken by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) during its June meeting earlier this week. The RBA’s firm approach suggests that they are not ready to ease monetary policy soon, which could provide some support for the AUD.

Contributing to the dynamics between the AUD and USD is the recent weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data. This data has fueled speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider rate cuts later this year, potentially weakening the Greenback and benefiting the AUD/USD pair. The anticipation of lower US interest rates could create a supportive environment for the Australian Dollar, as investors might seek higher returns elsewhere.

However, the RBA’s statement also highlighted the uncertainties in the economic outlook. The central bank acknowledged that the journey to bring inflation down to its target would not be straightforward. This acknowledgment of economic challenges suggests that the RBA remains cautious about the future, which might temper some of the positive impacts on the AUD.

Traders are also closely watching the upcoming preliminary data for Australia’s Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May, set to be released on Friday. This PMI data will provide insights into the health of the Australian economy. Any indications of recovery or improvement in the PMI could influence the RBA’s decisions regarding future rate cuts. A stronger-than-expected PMI might prompt the RBA to hold off on reducing rates, which could, in turn, bolster the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar.

In summary, while the Australian Dollar faces some pressure, the RBA’s hawkish stance and the potential for US Fed rate cuts provide a mixed outlook. The upcoming PMI data will be crucial for traders, as it will offer further direction on the economic trajectory and the RBA’s monetary policy decisions. The interplay of these factors will continue to shape the AUD/USD pair’s performance in the near term.

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USD/CHF Gains Above 0.8800 as Investors Await US CPI Data

USD/CHF Gains Above 0.8800 as Investors Await US CPI Data

USD/CHF Gains Above 0.8800 as Investors Await US CPI Data

The USD/CHF pair sees some buying interest around 0.8810 in early European trading on Tuesday, supported by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Key Federal Reserve officials—Christopher Waller, Thomas Barkin, Neel Kashkari, and Patrick Harker—are scheduled to speak later in the day. Investors also look ahead to Wednesday’s release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which are expected to influence market sentiment.

Former President Donald Trump’s proposed policies, including tax cuts, trade tariffs, and increased deficit spending, could lead to higher inflation, potentially slowing the Federal Reserve’s pace of rate cuts. Such developments may provide additional support for the USD against the Swiss Franc (CHF).

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of six major currencies, recently reached a four-month high near 105.70. Market attention now turns to October’s US CPI data, which could offer clues about the Fed’s upcoming rate decisions.

In Switzerland, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice Chairman Antoine Martin indicated on Monday that the central bank has not committed to further interest rate cuts in December. Martin emphasized that central banks should avoid rigid forward guidance, as evolving conditions could render previous statements outdated. Markets still anticipate that the SNB may reduce rates by at least 25 basis points from the current 1% level at its next meeting on December 12.

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EUR/USD Pressured Ahead of Fed Speeches and US Inflation Data

EUR/USD Pressured Ahead of Fed Speeches and US Inflation Data

EUR/USD Pressured Ahead of Fed Speeches and US Inflation Data

The EUR/USD pair is trading cautiously near a four-month low around 1.0700 in Monday’s European session. The currency pair remains under pressure, bolstered by recent shifts in the US Dollar’s (USD) outlook following Republican Donald Trump’s election as President. This outcome has strengthened the USD, with the US Dollar Index (DXY)—which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies—edging higher toward the 105.00 mark.

Trump’s campaign promises to raise import tariffs and lower taxes are expected to heighten inflationary pressures in the United States (US) and increase national debt levels. According to a November 6-7 Reuters poll, 62% of respondents, including 94% of Democrats and 34% of Republicans, believe Trump’s policies may lead to a higher US national debt. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Trump’s tax proposals could add $7.5 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.

This week, investors are closely watching speeches from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials for clues on possible monetary policy changes in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there’s a 65% probability of another 25 basis point (bps) rate cut, which would bring rates down to 4.25%-4.50% in December. This would mark the second consecutive quarter-point rate cut following last week’s adjustment.

Economically, the focus will be on the October US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due Thursday. Although Fed officials have expressed confidence in the disinflation trend toward the 2% target, any major deviation from the consensus could influence the interest rate outlook.

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USD/CHF Rises Above 0.8700 on Renewed US Dollar Demand

USD/CHF Rises Above 0.8700 on Renewed US Dollar Demand

USD/CHF Rises Above 0.8700 on Renewed US Dollar Demand

The USD/CHF pair edges up to approximately 0.8730 in early European trading on Friday, supported by a fresh wave of demand for the US Dollar. Market participants are awaiting the release of the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for November, along with remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman later in the day.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut borrowing costs by 0.25 basis points, reducing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.5%–4.75%, down from the previous 4.75%–5% range. This was a more modest reduction compared to the September cut. During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the US economy remains resilient and has shown meaningful progress toward the Fed’s long-term goals over the past two years.

Powell emphasized the importance of carefully calibrating interest rate adjustments to avoid any undue strain on the labor market. He noted that the Fed would continue to monitor economic data to guide the “pace and destination” of future rate changes. Meanwhile, the US Dollar has drawn some support as investors expect that economic policies may boost growth and inflation, potentially slowing the pace of rate cuts.

Meanwhile, global economic uncertainty and ongoing Middle East tensions may fuel demand for safe-haven assets, benefiting the Swiss Franc (CHF). The recent victory of President-elect Donald Trump has cast doubt on diplomatic efforts to resolve Israel’s multifront conflicts in the region, raising questions about the US’s long-term stance on support for Israel’s military activities against Iran and its allies.

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EUR/USD Hovers Near 1.0750 Amid U.S. Political Shifts and Downward Pressure

EUR/USD Hovering Near 1.0750 with Downward Pressure Amid Political Shifts in the U.S

EUR/USD Hovering Near 1.0750 with Downward Pressure Amid Political Shifts in the U.S

The EUR/USD pair remains around 1.0740 during the Asian session on Thursday, after experiencing a 2% decline in the previous session. The pair appears to be under downside pressure as the U.S. Dollar gains traction, potentially benefiting from renewed interest in “Trump trades” following the Republican Party’s victory in the U.S. elections.

The Republican victory suggests a potential shift in policy, with Donald Trump’s party likely to take control of both congressional chambers. This would mark a return to their agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and border security initiatives, priorities not seen in the past eight years. Early legislative goals include extending the 2017 tax cuts, securing funds for the U.S.-Mexico border wall, cutting unspent Democratic-allocated funds, dismantling the Department of Education, and curtailing the authority of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, as reported by Reuters.

Despite this, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, has slightly declined from a recent four-month high of 105.44, now trading near 104.90. This comes amid a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields after reaching recent highs of 4.31% and 4.47%.

Markets widely anticipate a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its November meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a 98.1% probability for this outcome. The move reflects market consensus for a modest reduction in interest rates this month.

In Europe, if economic growth slows due to potential new tariffs, the European Central Bank (ECB) may be pressured to implement more accommodative measures, with forecasts suggesting a potential rate cut to near zero by 2025. Expectations lean towards a 25-basis-point cut to the Deposit Facility Rate by December.

Meanwhile, EU economic data remains light this week. Pan-EU Retail Sales figures are due Thursday, and an EU leaders’ summit wraps up Friday, followed by ECB President Lagarde’s appearance on Saturday.

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EUR/USD Dives as Trump Claims US Presidential Victory

EUR/USD Dives as Trump Claims US Presidential Victory

EUR/USD Dives as Trump Claims US Presidential Victory

The EUR/USD pair tumbled on Wednesday, hitting a four-month low near 1.0700 before edging up to 1.0750 during the European session. The euro was battered as Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, appears poised to take control of the Senate, with the GOP gaining significant leads in key battleground states, according to The Associated Press. Trump is reportedly close to securing the necessary 270 electoral votes to form a government.

In a statement reported by Sky News, Trump has declared victory over Democratic contender Kamala Harris.

Trump’s anticipated win has strengthened the US Dollar (USD), with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, surging to approximately 105.30. Market reactions reflect the belief that a Trump victory will support the USD, driven by his commitments to increase tariffs on imports and cut corporate taxes—measures expected to stimulate business activity, raise labor demand, and heighten inflationary pressures.

Conversely, this outcome is likely to challenge the economies of key US trading partners, including the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, China, and Canada. Trump’s protectionist stance could weigh heavily on their export sectors, raising the risk of economic slowdowns.

Looking ahead, investor attention will shift to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that traders are pricing in a 25-basis point (bps) rate cut, which would bring the federal funds rate to a 4.50%-4.75% range. This would mark the Fed’s second consecutive rate cut, albeit smaller than the 50 bps cut enacted in September.

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USD/CHF Stays Below 0.8650 as Market Caution Intensifies Ahead of US Presidential Election

USD/CHF Stays Below 0.8650 as Market Caution Intensifies Ahead of US Presidential Election

USD/CHF remains steady around 0.8640 in Asian trading hours on Tuesday, following losses in the previous session. The US Dollar (USD) is holding its ground as market participants exercise caution amid uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US presidential election. Additionally, rising US Treasury yields provide further support for the Greenback.

Opinion polls indicate a tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The outcome could remain undetermined for days after Tuesday’s vote, with both Trump and Harris expressing confidence while campaigning in Pennsylvania on the final day of this highly contested race.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, is trading around 103.90, with 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields at 4.16% and 4.29%, respectively, as of this writing.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) faces potential challenges as the likelihood of rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) grows. This outlook is fueled by ongoing inflation slowdown in Switzerland, evidenced by a 0.6% year-over-year decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October. This CPI figure falls below the SNB’s fourth-quarter inflation target of 1%, raising the possibility of a more significant rate cut in December to maintain inflation within the bank’s target range of 0-2%.

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EUR/USD Nears 1.0550 as Safe-Haven Demand Limits Gains

EUR/USD slips below mid-1.0800s ahead of Eurozone CPI and US PCE Price Index

EUR/USD slips below mid-1.0800s ahead of Eurozone CPI and US PCE Price Index

The EUR/USD pair faltered just before dawn, slipping below the mid-1.0800s. The numbers showed a partial retreat from yesterday’s high near 1.0870—a figure that hadn’t been seen in over a week and a half. Buyers had slowed, and the dollar, never one to wait, began edging its way back up.

In the States, the data told a clear story. The economy stood firm, not teetering, with the Fed perhaps softening, though slowly. The ADP report showed private employers put 233,000 new hires on the books in October. It wasn’t a surge, but it was steady enough to keep spending up and inflation hovering. So the Fed, it seemed, would trim rates, yes—but gradually. Enough to keep the dollar propped, at least for now.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis pegged growth at 2.8% for April through June, not as much as last quarter, but enough to temper any big cuts. Treasury yields began their climb, stirring the dollar to hold its ground. The euro had little space to maneuver, pinned beneath the weight of American bonds.

Across the Atlantic, numbers trickled in. Germany, Europe’s engine, surprised everyone—growth of 0.2% in Q3. It was small but real, enough to make investors pause, rethinking bets on deep rate cuts from the European Central Bank. Eyes were set on the Eurozone CPI for Thursday, a glance backward before the day could move forward.

In North America, the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s compass, would soon tell where rates would settle next. Meanwhile, risk brewed quietly in the background, lifting the Greenback, and the trade was there—if you had the nerves for it.

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USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, keeping the USD/JPY pair firm around the 147.00 mark during the Asian session. A stronger US Dollar and persistent concerns over rising trade tensions are weighing heavily on the Yen, as markets brace for the impact of US tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1. 

Former US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese imports, coupled with the threat of retaliatory action, has sparked renewed fears over Japan’s economic resilience. The country’s Q1 GDP contracted, real wages in May dropped at their steepest pace in nearly two years, and political uncertainty is rising ahead of the July 20 House of Councillors election. Recent polls suggest the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may struggle to retain its majority, further dampening investor confidence. 

These developments have led traders to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. The combination of domestic headwinds and external pressure is weakening the JPY, while the US Dollar continues to gain on expectations that rising tariffs will stoke inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. 

The Fed’s June decision to hold interest rates steady, along with a strong US jobs report, has reinforced the belief that rate cuts may be delayed until at least October. The FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, will be closely watched for insights into the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets currently anticipate up to 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end. 

Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds 

Technically, USD/JPY’s break and close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) — for the first time since February — signals potential for further gains. Positive momentum on the daily chart supports a move toward the 147.60–147.65 resistance area, with the 148.00 handle, a key June high, in sight. 

On the downside, immediate support lies near 146.50, with the 100-day SMA just below 146.00 acting as a critical pivot. A decisive break below this level could shift momentum in favor of bears, opening room for deeper losses. 

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NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5700 on weaker US PMI data

During the early Asian session on Thursday, the NZD/USD pair was trading slightly higher at 0.5690. The Greenback falls against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as US economic data disappoints. Investors will keenly monitor developments in the rekindled trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. 

The weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) could weigh on the Greenback and generate a tailwind for the pair. The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3.

On the other hand, New Zealand’s fourth-quarter employment report will put the RBNZ on pace to decrease the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% this month. Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday that the country’s unemployment rate increased to 5.1% in Q4, up from 4.8% the previous quarter. This result was a four-year high and exceeded the 25-year average of 4.8%. Rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may decrease interest rates may further impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

“In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% at the February 19 meeting and the policy rate to through around 3.00% over the next 12 months. Bottom line: NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD,” noted Société Générale’s FX analysts. 

On Tuesday, the finance ministry in China unveiled a package of tariffs on various US products such as crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos in a sharp response to an announcement made by US President Donald Trump imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Further, China served notice to several companies including Google for potential sanctions in response to Trump’s tariffs. Any sign of uncertainty or a rising trade war tension may see the China-proxy Kiwi being dragged lower, as China remains one of the major trading partners to New Zealand.

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JPY Recovers Losses vs. USD, Bullish Outlook Intact

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses Against USD; Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

The Japanese yen (JPY) cut some of its intraday losses against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, bringing the USD/JPY pair back below the mid-155.00s during the early European session. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions showed conversations about the possibility of further hikes in interest rates. Furthermore, Tokyo’s core inflation increased at the quickest annual rate in nearly a year, raising expectations of further policy tightening by the BoJ, which supports the JPY.

Beyond monetary policy, narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economies, including the US, alongside a broader risk-off sentiment, provide additional support to the safe-haven JPY. However, concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s newly announced trade tariffs limit the yen’s upside. Meanwhile, the USD remains broadly strong, allowing the USD/JPY pair to maintain its positive momentum for a second consecutive day, ahead of the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI report.

Yen Gains Traction Amid BoJ Rate Hike Bets and Trade War Fears

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, effective Tuesday.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, and China’s foreign ministry all replied quickly, indicating probable retaliation. The US Dollar continues to climb, approaching a two-year high last hit in January, supporting the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

The Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions, released on Monday, showed that policymakers are thinking about additional rate hikes, though this has failed to appreciably lift the JPY.

Board members of the Bank of Japan stressed the need of continuing to raise interest rates if economic conditions and inflation remain stable.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the government is closely monitoring the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the yen amid concerns over potential economic fallout.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reiterated Japan’s commitment to achieving the BoJ’s 2% inflation target while implementing measures to offset rising living costs.

The US-Japan yield spread remains near a multi-week low, which, coupled with risk aversion, could help stabilize the yen in the near term.

Investors now turn their focus to key US economic data, starting with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Near 156.25; Bears in Control Below This Level

From a technical standpoint, last week’s strong rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally and the subsequent upside move favor bullish traders. However, additional gains beyond 156.00 may encounter resistance near last week’s swing high at 156.25. A sustained break above this level could spark a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards:

  • 156.70-156.75 resistance
  • 157.00 psychological mark
  • 157.60 horizontal barrier
  • Potential extension towards 158.00, with an ultimate target at the 158.85-158.90 multi-month high from January 10

Conversely, on the downside:-

  • 155.00 serves as immediate support
  • Below this, watch for key levels at 154.55-154.50 and 154.00
  • A break below the 153.70 January low could accelerate the decline towards 153.30 and eventually 153.00

While the JPY is exhibiting some resilience, the overall trend remains unpredictable, with market participants intently watching economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

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Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rise, Fed Decision Looms

Australian Dollar Slides Amid Rising Odds of RBA Rate Cuts, Fed Decision in Focus

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak for a third consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD), weighed down by softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, matching the previous quarter but missing the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI eased to 2.4% from 2.8% in Q3, below the market forecast of 2.5%. Despite December’s monthly CPI ticking up to 2.5% YoY, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2%-3% target range. Meanwhile, the RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI slowed to 3.2% YoY, its weakest pace in three years, slightly under the anticipated 3.3%.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed confidence that “the worst of the inflation challenge is behind us” and that a “soft landing” is increasingly likely. The cooling inflation strengthens the case for an RBA rate cut in February. The central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing the need for inflation to “sustainably” return to target before considering a rate reduction.

AUD Pressured by Risk Aversion, Trump’s Tariff Threats

The AUD faces additional headwinds from risk-off sentiment following tariff threats by former US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of key commodities, including computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to boost US manufacturing.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm around 108.00 as traders turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, indicate near-certainty that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for guidance on future policy shifts.

Concerns over the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies add another layer of uncertainty. US Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino noted, “A number of White House proposals appear inflationary, which could keep the Fed in check.” Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed universal tariffs on US imports starting at 2.5%, with Trump reportedly favoring even higher rates.

China’s Economic Slowdown Adds Pressure on AUD

The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to China’s economic struggles. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1, missing expectations, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.2 from 52.2. As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s weak data weighs heavily on the AUD.

Despite China’s recent stimulus measures, including a $7.25 billion investment in index products and long-term stock investments, concerns persist. Industrial profits fell 3.3% YoY in 2024, marking a third consecutive year of contraction, driven by weak demand, deflationary pressures, and a prolonged property sector slump.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Turns Bearish Below 0.6250

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6230 on Wednesday after breaking below the ascending channel on the daily chart, signaling a shift toward a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, reinforcing downside momentum.

A decisive break below key support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel strengthens the bearish outlook, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward 0.6131—its lowest level since April 2020. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6256. A rebound above this level could reintroduce a bullish bias, with the next upside target near 0.6360.

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US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

The US dollar strengthened significantly against all major currencies after President Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary reignited concerns about potential tariffs, raising fears that trade policies may return to the forefront. Risk-sensitive currencies, particularly those tied to China, saw sharp declines, while the euro weakened amid speculation that the European Union could soon face tariff pressures. Simultaneously, the Japanese yen took a hit as traders hedged against potential US inflation spikes and rising Treasury yields.

This market turbulence followed a Financial Times report indicating that Scott Bessent, the newly appointed Treasury Department official, supports a phased approach to implementing universal tariffs on US imports. The initial proposal suggests starting with a 2.5% tariff rate. However, President Trump hinted at a much broader scope, potentially targeting a range of imports from steel to semiconductor chips and suggesting higher tariff rates over time.

The administration’s “moderate” proposal involves a gradual increase in tariffs, reaching 20% over eight months in increments of 2.5% per month. This timeline has triggered speculation about more extreme scenarios and raised questions about the global trade concessions needed to halt these measures. Bessent’s approach, which allows businesses time to adjust, could also spark a rush of imports and exports to avoid higher future costs.

Amid these developments, financial markets are grappling with the potential outcomes. Traders are assessing whether the proposed tariff measures are fully priced in and evaluating the likelihood of de-escalation through negotiation.

On the positive side, any concessions or agreements that delay or reduce tariffs could stabilize markets. However, the risks of escalating tariffs, particularly if negotiations fail, remain a significant concern. Higher tariffs could disrupt global trade and have far-reaching implications for currency valuations.

While we initially favored long positions on the dollar, the unfolding tariff narrative has introduced significant uncertainty. Staying prepared for sudden shifts in policy and market dynamics is now crucial as the situation continues to evolve.

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Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) ended its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the AUD/USD pair trading flat following the release of mixed Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. As a close trade partner, Australia’s economy is heavily influenced by China’s economic performance.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, down from 50.1 in December, missing market expectations. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 from the previous month’s 52.2. These weaker-than-expected figures suggest a slowdown in China’s economic recovery, weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.

Despite fresh stimulus measures from China aimed at revitalizing its equity markets, the AUD struggled to gain momentum. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a second round of long-term stock investment pilot programs valued at 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). However, these measures have done little to alleviate investor concerns about China’s economic challenges.

Risk Aversion Rises Amid Trump’s Trade Tariff Push

Broader market sentiment took a hit as reports emerged that US President Donald Trump’s advisers are pushing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February 1, bypassing negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s willingness to move swiftly on tariffs follows similar actions taken against Colombia, raising fears of escalating trade tensions and dampening demand for riskier assets like the Australian Dollar.

Adding to the negative outlook, China’s Industrial Profits declined by 3.3% year-over-year in 2024 to CNY 7,431.05 billion, marking the third consecutive year of contraction. This downturn highlights ongoing economic headwinds, including weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property sector.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Bullish Setup

The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6290 on Monday, showing signs of upward momentum within an ascending channel on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 50, reflecting mild optimism in the market.

On the upside, the pair could retest the psychological resistance level at 0.6300, with the next target near the channel’s upper boundary around 0.6350.

Support levels are found at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6265, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6254. A stronger support lies near the channel’s lower boundary around 0.6240, which could act as a safety net in case of a downside correction.

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NZD/USD Struggles

NZD/USD Struggles Below 0.5700 Amid Trump’s Tariff Plans and Dovish RBNZ Expectations

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading near 0.5675 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces headwinds due to uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China and the dovish outlook of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicated a continued decline in underlying inflation, strengthening expectations of additional rate cuts by the RBNZ. Swap markets now estimate a nearly 90% chance of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut on February 19, building on the two cuts already implemented in this cycle. The RBNZ is projected to deliver a total of 100 bps in rate cuts through the remainder of 2025.

Meanwhile, the downside for the pair could be capped by recent comments from Trump. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump called for immediate interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” Trump said.

Investors are now closely watching for further details on Trump’s tariff policies, alongside key US economic data releases. The flash US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for January will be a key focus later on Friday, along with the release of US Existing Home Sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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