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Australian Dollar Weakens as US Dollar Rises Ahead of PMI Data

Australian Dollar Weakens as US Dollar Rises Ahead of PMI Data

Australian Dollar Weakens as US Dollar Rises Ahead of PMI Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) softened against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, impacted by mixed Judo Bank PMI results from Australia. Despite this, a hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on future rate decisions lent some underlying support to the AUD.

Australian PMI Data

  • Manufacturing PMI: Improved to 49.4 in November, up from 47.3 in October, signaling a slower contraction in manufacturing activity for the first time in six months.
  • Services PMI: Dropped to 49.6 from 51.0, marking the first contraction in services activity in ten months.
  • Composite Output Index: Fell to 49.4 from 50.2, indicating a modest decline in private sector output.

RBA Outlook

Australia’s largest banks revised their projections for the RBA’s first rate cut:

  • Westpac and NAB expect a cut in May, up from earlier forecasts of February.
  • CBA and ANZ maintain a cautious forecast for February.

While RBA minutes signaled vigilance on inflation, policymakers kept future rate adjustments on the table, emphasizing flexibility to address economic conditions.

US Dollar Strength

The US Dollar maintained its upward momentum:

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 107.00, supported by better-than-expected US Initial Jobless Claims, which fell to 213,000 against a forecast of 220,000.
  • Futures markets now indicate reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, further strengthening the Greenback.

Broader Market Sentiment

Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed confidence in the US economy, highlighting robust labor market conditions and persistent inflationary pressures as reasons to hold off on aggressive rate cuts. Other Fed officials echoed the need for caution, dampening speculation of rapid monetary easing.

Meanwhile, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers highlighted economic headwinds, including falling iron ore prices, a weakening labor market, and slower growth in China, a key trading partner.

Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6510 with a bearish outlook:

  • Support Levels:
    • Descending channel lower boundary at 0.6360.
    • Yearly low of 0.6348 from August.
  • Resistance Levels:
    • Nine-day EMA at 0.6518 and 14-day EMA at 0.6533.
    • A breakout above these levels could target 0.6687, the recent four-week high.

Market attention now shifts to upcoming US PMI data and Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures, which could further influence the AUD/USD trajectory.

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Japanese Yen Holds Near Daily High

Japanese Yen Firm Near Daily High Against USD, Awaits Signals from BoJ Governor Ueda

Japanese Yen Firm Near Daily High Against USD, Awaits Signals from BoJ Governor Ueda

The Japanese Yen (JPY) holds its modest gains against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/JPY pair trading near the 155.00 mark during Thursday’s Asian session. Intervention fears and geopolitical uncertainties, coupled with speculation about potential monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), are lending support to the Yen.

Focus on BoJ’s Next Move
Market participants are closely monitoring remarks from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda for clues about a possible interest rate hike in December. Investors are divided, pricing in a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the BoJ’s final policy meeting of the year, scheduled for December 18-19. Governor Ueda’s earlier statements left markets uncertain about the pace and timing of further policy tightening.

Additionally, reports suggest that an economic stimulus package worth ¥21.9 trillion, proposed by Economic Revitalisation Minister Akazawa, could provide further direction for Japan’s monetary policy outlook.

Impact of Geopolitical Developments and US Policies
Geopolitical tensions appear to have eased somewhat, with recent comments from Russian and US officials reducing concerns about a potential nuclear conflict. This has tempered demand for traditional safe-haven currencies like the JPY.

Meanwhile, in the US, anticipation around President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policies is driving inflation expectations higher. This has lifted US Treasury yields, which in turn support the USD and limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair.

Fed Officials’ Cautious Stance
Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers continue to signal a cautious approach to monetary easing. Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have advocated for measured steps to avoid policy missteps, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman warned of stalled progress on inflation, suggesting a slower pace of rate cuts.

Upcoming Data and Market Drivers
Key economic data, including Japan’s National Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Existing Home Sales, are in focus. The CPI data will be a critical input for the BoJ’s next policy decision, while US data could influence Treasury yields and the USD’s trajectory.

In the meantime, speeches from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members later today and Governor Ueda’s upcoming appearance are expected to provide fresh impetus for USD/JPY traders.

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Gold Price Retreats as US Dollar Strengthens | Key Levels to Watch

Gold Price Pulls Back Amid Strengthening US Dollar

Gold Price Pulls Back Amid Strengthening US Dollar

Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from a one-and-a-half-week high reached during the Asian session, trading near the $2,635–$2,636 range. Despite this pullback, gold remains on track for a third consecutive day of gains as geopolitical tensions and cautious market sentiment support demand for the safe-haven asset. However, a modest recovery in US Dollar (USD) demand, driven by higher Treasury yields, limits further upside for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Key Drivers and Market Dynamics

  1. Geopolitical Tensions:
  • The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to drive safe-haven flows.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s updated nuclear doctrine and Ukraine’s deployment of US-made ATACMS missiles heighten geopolitical risks.
  • Despite these developments, statements from both Russia and the US seeking to avoid nuclear conflict help temper market fears.
  1. US Dollar and Treasury Yields:
  • Optimism surrounding US President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policies has revived expectations of inflationary pressures, supporting US Treasury yields and bolstering the USD.
  • The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates less than a 60% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December, suggesting the Federal Reserve might take a less dovish stance.
  1. Federal Reserve Outlook:
  • Comments from Federal Reserve officials hint at a willingness to curb inflation even at the cost of higher interest rates.
  • Traders await speeches from influential FOMC members, which could provide further clarity on the Fed’s policy direction and influence near-term gold price movements.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Upside Potential:

  • Gold’s recovery from last week’s two-month low has broken the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, signaling bullish momentum.
  • Immediate resistance lies at the $2,658–$2,660 range, followed by a congestion zone near $2,670–$2,672. Sustained buying could push prices toward the psychological $2,700 mark.

Downside Risks:

  • Immediate support is seen at $2,622–$2,620, with stronger support at $2,600.
  • A break below $2,600 could expose gold to further declines, targeting the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $2,555 and last week’s swing low at $2,537–$2,536.

Outlook and Upcoming Catalysts

While gold’s near-term trajectory remains influenced by geopolitical concerns and USD strength, the market’s focus is on upcoming FOMC member speeches and US economic data. These factors will play a critical role in shaping expectations around Federal Reserve policy, bond yields, and the USD, ultimately determining the direction for gold prices.

For now, $2,600 is a pivotal support level, while $2,700 acts as a key psychological barrier for bulls.

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Gold Price Holds Below $2,500 as Traders

Gold Price Faces Pressure Ahead of US Retail Sales Data

Gold Price Faces Pressure Ahead of US Retail Sales Data

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles near $2,570 on Friday, failing to sustain momentum after rebounding from a two-month low in the previous session. The precious metal remains under selling pressure due to the strength of the US Dollar (USD) and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pace of interest rate reductions. Expectations of elevated inflation next year, influenced by Donald Trump’s policies, have dampened the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts, making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive.

Geopolitical Tensions Provide Support

Despite these headwinds, escalating tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia may lend support to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. Investors are also eyeing key US economic indicators, including October’s Retail Sales, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, and Industrial Production data, all due on Friday. Additionally, speeches from Fed officials Susan Collins and John Williams could offer further direction.

Gold Price Faces Bearish Technical Outlook

Gold’s price action remains cautious, with the metal hovering around the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A sustained break below this key level could signal further downside, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral 50 mark, near 33.60.

Key support levels to watch include:

  • $2,485: September 8 low
  • $2,353: July 25 low
  • $2,300: Psychological support

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at:

  • $2,665: A support-turned-resistance level
  • $2,750: November 6 high

A decisive break above these levels could trigger bullish momentum for gold.

Market Sentiment and Fed Insights

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Thursday that the US economy’s performance has been “remarkably good,” allowing the Fed to lower rates cautiously. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin highlighted that while progress has been made, additional efforts are needed to sustain economic momentum.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for October rose 2.4% year-over-year, exceeding expectations of 2.3%, while weekly Initial Jobless Claims remained below forecasts at 217K. However, the CME FedWatch Tool shows reduced market confidence in a December rate cut, with odds falling to 59.1% from 75% last week.

Gold’s near-term trajectory will likely hinge on Friday’s data and geopolitical developments, keeping investors vigilant.

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Japanese Yen Stays on Defensive, Hovering Near 156.00 Against the US Dollar

Japanese Yen Stays on Defensive, Hovering Near 156.00 Against the US Dollar

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken against the US Dollar (USD), marking its fourth consecutive day of losses on Thursday, as it dips below the 156.00 level for the first time since July. Despite a notable increase in Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) at its fastest annual rate in over a year for October, uncertainties around Japan’s political landscape cast doubt on the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) willingness to raise rates. Concerns over the potential impact of incoming US President-elect Donald Trump’s trade policies on Japan’s economy further weigh on the JPY.

Expectations of expansionary policies from the Trump administration have heightened inflationary outlooks, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to pause its easing cycle. Additionally, recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which signaled slower-than-expected progress in reducing inflation, may limit the scope for further Fed rate cuts next year. This environment has supported higher US Treasury yields, bolstering the USD and drawing investors away from the lower-yielding JPY.

Although there is speculation that Japanese authorities may consider intervening in the forex market to support the Yen, the current economic landscape suggests a continued upward bias for the USD/JPY pair. Looking ahead, key data releases such as US Weekly Jobless Claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) could impact the USD/JPY pair, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks and Japan’s preliminary Q3 GDP figures, set for release on Friday.

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Gold Price Eases as USD Strength Weighs Ahead

Gold Price Eases as USD Strength Weighs Ahead of Key US CPI Release

Gold Price Eases as USD Strength Weighs Ahead of Key US CPI Release

Gold (XAU/USD) has trimmed part of its modest intraday recovery gains but continues to hold above $2,600 in early European trading on Wednesday. Investors’ cautious sentiment around US President-elect Donald Trump’s potential trade tariffs and their impact on global markets has led to a shift toward safe-haven assets like gold. In addition, some repositioning ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has lent support to the precious metal.

At the same time, a bullish US Dollar (USD) remains near its highest level since early May amid optimism that Trump’s proposed fiscal policies could drive inflation and potentially constrain the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ability to cut interest rates further. Rising US Treasury yields, supported by this outlook, continue to limit upward momentum for non-yielding assets like gold. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD has managed to break a three-day losing streak after touching a low of around $2,589 on Tuesday, its lowest since September 20.

Gold Bulls Hold Back as USD and Bond Yields Rise on Trump Policy Optimism

The US Dollar’s rally, supported by Trump’s proposed expansionary policies, pushed the gold price below the $2,600 mark for the first time since September. The anticipation of Trump’s protectionist tariffs could put upward pressure on inflation, reducing the Fed’s scope for rate cuts, which helps sustain elevated bond yields.

In remarks Tuesday, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin highlighted that inflation may be stabilizing but remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that a higher-than-expected inflation reading ahead of the December FOMC meeting could prompt the Fed to pause further rate cuts. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries remain close to multi-month highs as markets reduce bets on further aggressive rate cuts by the Fed.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trends for Gold Price

From a technical standpoint, gold’s resilience near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its June-October rally suggests caution for bearish traders, though daily chart oscillators remain in negative territory. This indicates that gold’s near-term momentum may still be to the downside.

For bearish traders, a sustained move below the $2,600 mark and the 38.2% Fibonacci level could confirm a bearish trend, potentially pulling gold toward the $2,540 area, where the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci level provide strong support. If this level breaks, it may trigger a further downtrend.

On the upside, resistance is likely near the $2,630-$2,632 range. Should follow-through buying lift gold above this zone, the next targets lie near $2,650-$2,655 and then $2,670, with a decisive break above $2,700 suggesting the recent correction may have concluded.

Looking Ahead: CPI Data and USD Impact

Traders are eyeing the release of October’s CPI report, which is expected to show a monthly rise of 0.2% and an annual increase of 2.6%, up from 2.4% in September. A higher-than-expected reading could curb expectations for further Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering the USD and weighing on gold. Conversely, a lower-than-expected inflation figure could revive hopes of a December rate cut, which might soften the USD and offer support to gold prices.

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Japanese Yen Continues Consolidation Against USD Amid Mixed Signals

Japanese Yen Continues Consolidation Against USD Amid Mixed Signals

Japanese Yen Continues Consolidation Against USD Amid Mixed Signals

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains directionless, fluctuating between small gains and losses against the US Dollar (USD) as the European session begins on Tuesday. Investors appear increasingly skeptical about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) capacity for further monetary tightening, given Japan’s current political landscape. The October BoJ Summary of Opinions reflected policymakers’ mixed views on additional rate hikes, adding to the uncertainty.

In contrast, expectations of inflationary pressures from US President-elect Donald Trump’s policy proposals, which may reduce the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ability to ease policy further, are sustaining higher US Treasury yields. This yield advantage makes the USD more appealing over the lower-yielding JPY. However, concerns over potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen might limit any sharp JPY declines.

JPY Bulls on Hold Amid Intervention Concerns and Domestic Economic Hurdles

Concerns around Japan’s political environment have dampened hopes for additional BoJ rate hikes. This sentiment was reinforced by the BoJ’s October Summary of Opinions. In diplomatic news, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in mid-November, possibly influencing future trade and economic policies. Meanwhile, PM Ishiba announced plans to engage business and labor representatives on next year’s wage negotiations.

Trump’s proposed tariffs could strain Japanese exports, potentially dampening economic growth and creating further challenges for the BoJ’s monetary policy plans. Adding to the pressure, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted the Fed requires stronger inflation evidence before considering further rate cuts. Investors are leaning towards the view that Trump’s policies may drive economic growth and inflation, limiting the Fed’s scope for aggressive policy easing.

US Treasury yields remain elevated near post-election highs, and the USD is hovering close to a recent peak, providing additional support to USD/JPY. This week’s economic events, including speeches by Federal Reserve members like Chair Jerome Powell, along with US inflation data, should offer more insight into the Fed’s rate trajectory. Additionally, Japan’s preliminary Q3 GDP data and the US Retail Sales report, both due Friday, could provide fresh direction for the USD/JPY pair.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Eyes 154.00 for Continued Gains

From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY’s recent breakout above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the July-September decline favor a bullish outlook. Daily chart indicators remain comfortably in positive territory, with room before reaching overbought conditions, suggesting a near-term bullish bias. If USD/JPY breaks above 154.00, it could test multi-month highs around 154.70, with the next resistance at 155.00. A push above 155.00 could drive momentum toward 155.65-155.70, potentially reaching the 156.00 mark.

On the downside, the 153.35 level (61.8% Fibo. resistance) serves as initial support, followed by 153.00 and the 152.70-152.65 support area. Any further decline may offer a buying opportunity around 152.00, with additional support at the 200-day SMA near 151.75. A sustained break below the latter could trigger technical selling, bringing USD/JPY below 151.00 and possibly toward intermediate support at 150.35-150.30, followed by the 150.00 psychological level.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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China’s February New Bank Loans Decrease Beyond Expectations, Hitting Record Low Lending Growth

China’s February New Bank Loans Decrease Beyond Expectations, Hitting Record Low Lending Growth

In China, new bank lending in February experienced a sharper decline than anticipated from a record high in January, as the central bank continues efforts to stimulate the country’s sluggish economic growth and counter deflationary trends.

According to Reuters’ calculations based on People’s Bank of China data, Chinese banks issued 1.45 trillion yuan ($201.5 billion) in new yuan loans in February, a significant drop from January and below the expectations of analysts. Year-over-year growth of outstanding yuan loans slowed to a record low of 10.1%, compared to 10.4% in January, and fell short of the projected 10.2%.

The decrease in February’s lending was expected as Chinese banks typically issue more loans at the beginning of the year to attract high-quality customers and gain market share. Additionally, the Lunar New Year holiday, which occurred in February this year as opposed to late January in 2023, likely impacted lending activity.

Analysts had forecasted new yuan loans for February to decrease to 1.50 trillion yuan, down from 4.92 trillion yuan in the previous month and against 1.81 trillion yuan a year earlier.

ING analysts noted that aggregate financing and new loans were weaker than expected due to limited high-quality borrowing demand, indicating a modest immediate impact from the February cut in the required reserve ratio (RRR). Despite signals of further RRR cuts from the PBOC, a lack of high-quality borrowing demand might reduce the effectiveness of these measures in stimulating the economy.

In the first two months of 2024, Chinese banks made 6.37 trillion yuan in new yuan loans, according to central bank data. Household loans, mostly mortgages, contracted by 590.7 billion yuan in February, after an increase of 980.1 billion yuan in January. Corporate loans also decreased to 1.57 trillion yuan from 3.86 trillion yuan.

China’s economic growth target for 2024 is around 5%, a goal many analysts consider challenging without significant additional stimulus. Both consumer and corporate confidence have remained weak since a post-pandemic upsurge faded early in 2023.

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng stated there is still room for RRR cuts, following a substantial 50-basis point reduction effective from February 5. The central bank also announced a major cut in a key mortgage reference rate last month to support the property market and the overall economy.

Broad M2 money supply grew by 8.7% year-over-year, slightly below the 8.8% forecast but consistent with the pace in January.

Total social financing (TSF) growth, a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, decelerated to 9.0% in February from a year earlier, down from 9.5% in January. With China setting the 2024 quota for local government special bond issuance at 3.9 trillion yuan and planning to issue 1 trillion yuan in special ultra-long-term treasury bonds, increased fiscal support is expected to boost government borrowing. However, weak private sector credit demand continues to pose significant challenges.

TSF, which includes various forms of financing beyond conventional bank lending, fell to 1.56 trillion yuan in February from 6.5 trillion yuan in January, falling short of the expected 2.22 trillion yuan.

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Major Currency Pairs Remain Stable Before Crucial US Economic Data Release

Major Currency Pairs Remain Stable Before Crucial US Economic Data Release

Throughout the latter half of the week, major currency pairs have been exhibiting fluctuations within narrow margins. Following a slight downturn on Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) Index has maintained a subdued profile, hovering just below the 103.00 mark in Thursday’s European morning. Market participants are keenly awaiting the release of the US producer inflation and retail sales data for February, which are poised to offer fresh directional impetus.

Concurrently, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield has seen a resurgence, crossing back over the 4.2% threshold for the first time in more than a week. As of early Thursday, the yield steadies at around 4.2%, while US stock index futures exhibit a mixed performance, reflecting the volatility observed in Wednesday’s market.

This week, the US Dollar’s performance has varied across different major currencies. Notably, the Dollar recorded its strongest performance against the Japanese Yen. A recent report from Reuters highlighted that Japan’s largest industrial union, UA Zensen, announced record-high pay increases by 231 firms since 2013. In response, the USD/JPY pair has been oscillating within a tight range below the 148.00 level, closing almost unchanged on Wednesday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) experienced a modest upswing on Wednesday, breaking a two-day losing streak and remaining consolidated just above 0.6600 early Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) gained some ground and ended Wednesday on a positive note. However, the pair began to retreat slightly after encountering resistance near 1.0950. In the absence of significant data releases from the Eurozone, the market’s focus will likely shift to any statements from European Central Bank (ECB) officials.

The British Pound (GBP/USD) is experiencing difficulty in establishing a clear direction, continuing its lateral movement around the 1.2800 mark in Thursday’s European trading session.

In the commodities sector, gold managed to recoup most of its losses from Tuesday during Wednesday’s session. However, it struggled to gain further upward momentum in the face of increasing US yields. At last observation, Gold (XAU/USD) was trading marginally lower, just below $2,170.

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Australian Dollar Struggles as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of US PPI Release

Australian Dollar Gains Support from Rising ASX 200 Despite Stronger US Dollar

Australian Dollar Gains Support from Rising ASX 200 Despite Stronger US Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is showing signs of consolidation, hinting at a potential recovery from its recent losses as of Wednesday. This comes amidst mixed market signals, including a positive performance from the S&P/ASX 200 Index and contrasting pressures from lower commodity prices.

For the second consecutive day, the S&P/ASX 200 Index has been on the rise, mirroring the overnight gains observed on Wall Street. This upward trend in the Australian stock market is a reflection of investor confidence and a generally positive economic outlook, which typically supports the strength of the national currency. However, the Australian Dollar faces countervailing pressures due to a decline in commodity prices. Australia, being a major exporter of natural resources, is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in these markets. Lower commodity prices can have a dampening effect on the AUD, as they may reduce the country’s trade revenue and economic prospects.

The current investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic, spurred by the release of encouraging Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States (US). This optimism is, however, tempered by the recent performance of the AUD against the US Dollar (USD). On Tuesday, the AUD suffered losses against the USD, driven largely by a stronger-than-expected US CPI report. The report has diminished the likelihood of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstering the Greenback. This strengthened USD poses potential challenges for the AUD/USD currency pair, as a robust US Dollar often means weaker performance for other major currencies.

Traders and investors are now likely to redirect their focus towards upcoming economic indicators from the US, particularly the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data, which are scheduled for release on Thursday. These data points are significant as they provide insights into the health of the US economy. The Core PPI offers a measure of the average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding food and energy, which are more volatile. Retail Sales data, on the other hand, is a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a substantial portion of overall economic activity in the US.

The outcomes of these reports could have significant implications for the Fed’s monetary policy decisions, and consequently, influence the AUD/USD exchange rate dynamics. As investors and market analysts anticipate these releases, there is an air of cautious observation in the market, with stakeholders keen to understand how these developments will shape the near-term trajectory of the Australian Dollar in relation to the US Dollar and the broader global economy.

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XRP Poised for Weekly Drop as Investors Pocket $370 Million in Profits

XRP Poised for Weekly Drop as Investors Pocket $370 Million in Profits

The price of XRP, a popular altcoin, experienced a downturn, reaching $0.62 on Friday. Despite this drop, it managed to stay above the crucial $0.60 mark, a psychologically significant level for traders and investors. This recent price movement has been primarily attributed to increased profit-taking activities among XRP holders. Heading towards the week’s close, XRP seems poised to end with a slight loss, marking a mild correction following its recent price surge. This shift in market behavior comes just ahead of a significant event – the anticipated March 22 deadline in the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit, a key factor influencing the altcoin’s market dynamics.

Since the beginning of March 2024, XRP holders have reportedly cashed out profits amounting to around $370 million. This substantial withdrawal of profits is one of the primary drivers behind the recent price adjustments. On-chain data provided by Santiment has highlighted consistent profit-taking by XRP holders throughout the month, especially notable as the altcoin reached its monthly peak of $0.6685 on Tuesday.

Further analysis reveals an uptick in on-chain activity for XRP. Notable metrics showing this increase include a rise in Active Addresses and a surge in large transactions, specifically those valued at $100,000 or higher. Both these indicators have witnessed significant growth over the past week. Generally, such an increase in active addresses and high-value transactions can signal either bullish or bearish trends for an asset’s price. However, in the context of XRP, the spike in transactions following its recent price rally suggests that larger investors or ‘whales’ may be looking to capitalize on the higher rates to sell off their holdings and secure profits.

This pattern of whale behavior, coupled with the overarching climate of profit-taking among regular holders, paints a picture of a market in a state of flux. As XRP navigates through these changes, market watchers are closely monitoring the asset’s performance, particularly with the looming legal deadline in the SEC lawsuit which could have further implications for its price and investor sentiment.

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Currency Market Stabilizes Ahead of Powell Speech, Bitcoin Gains Momentum

Currency Market Stabilizes Ahead of Powell Speech, Bitcoin Gains Momentum

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar remained stable as traders awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony and upcoming key events, including a European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and U.S. jobs data.

Bitcoin showed renewed momentum in the cryptocurrency market, though it did not surpass its recent record high achieved in a tumultuous overnight session.

The dollar’s movement was restricted, reflecting a slight decline after data revealed a minor slowdown in U.S. services industry growth last month. The upcoming February U.S. jobs report, due on Friday, is anticipated to significantly influence market expectations regarding interest rates, especially if employment figures exceed forecasts.

Powell’s testimony before Congress, focusing on the state of the U.S. economy, is expected to confirm the Fed’s intention to analyze more data before considering any rate cuts. The Fed chief might also discuss January’s strong core inflation, which analysts believe won’t alter the market’s expectation of a rate cut starting in June.

Currently, the market shows about a 60% likelihood of a June rate cut, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. The dollar index stood around 103.76, demonstrating its strength against six major currencies.

The euro remained stable at $1.0855, with the market anticipating the ECB’s rate decision. The bank is expected to maintain rates at 4% and provide updates on economic projections and hints about potential rate cuts.

Sterling was steady at $1.27050 ahead of the British budget announcement. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar recovered slightly, dismissing GDP data that showed only 0.2% growth in the fourth quarter and strengthened the case for rate cuts. It was last up 0.24% at $0.65195.

The New Zealand dollar also rose, gaining 0.16% to $0.60960, despite reaching a three-week low earlier. Conversely, the dollar fell 0.12% against the yen, settling at 149.86.

Attention is also focused on Bitcoin, which recently soared to a new high before sharply retreating. It was last up 4.11% at $65,921, fueled by investments in U.S. spot exchange-traded crypto products and anticipation of global interest rate reductions.

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Stable Near High, Amid Fed Rate-Cut Speculation and Market Softness

Gold Price Stable Near High, Amid Fed Rate-Cut Speculation and Market Softness

During the early hours of Tuesday’s European trading session, the Gold price, measured in XAU/USD, maintained a steady range, reflecting a period of consolidation after its recent significant surge to a three-month high near the $2,120 mark, achieved the previous day. This stability in Gold’s price comes as traders display caution, choosing to wait for clearer indications regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future interest rate decisions before committing to new market positions. Consequently, all eyes are set on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s two-day congressional testimony, which is slated to begin on Wednesday.

The week also brings a host of critical U.S. economic data releases coinciding with the start of a new month. Among these, the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due for release on Friday, stands out as a key determinant of the U.S. Dollar’s (USD) trajectory and, by extension, its influence on the precious metal’s dynamics. The anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s possible rate cuts starting in June has somewhat subdued USD bullish sentiment, indirectly bolstering support for the non-yielding Gold.

Adding to the mix is the slight weakening in global risk appetite, fueled by ongoing geopolitical tensions and growing concerns over an economic slowdown in China. These factors are contributing to the appeal of Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, under the XAU/USD symbol. Market participants are now keenly awaiting the U.S. ISM Services PMI data, which could offer short-term trading opportunities in the gold market.

Despite these varied influences, the fundamental landscape indicates a predominantly upward trajectory for Gold prices. The prevailing economic and geopolitical conditions suggest that any downward corrections in Gold’s price are likely to be short-lived and viewed as buying opportunities by investors. This perspective reinforces the notion that Gold remains a resilient and attractive investment amidst the current global economic uncertainties.

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Japanese Yen Dips Versus USD as BoJ Uncertainty Lingers; Tokyo CPI in Focus Tuesday

Japanese Yen Dips Versus USD as BoJ Uncertainty Lingers; Tokyo CPI in Focus Tuesday

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is experiencing renewed pressure after a slight recovery from its year-to-date low on Friday, as it enters the European trading session with a weaker stance against the US Dollar (USD). This development comes in the wake of remarks from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who emphasized on Friday that it was premature to declare a win over inflation concerns. This cautionary stance from the BoJ, coupled with signs of a technical recession in Japan, indicates a potential delay in the central bank’s shift towards tighter monetary policies. Such a delay is contributing to the diminishing strength of the JPY.

Amid these circumstances, there are reports suggesting that the Japanese government is contemplating officially declaring an end to the long-standing deflationary period. Market participants are also closely watching the potential impact of another significant wage increase in Japan. This increase could potentially initiate a wage-price spiral, compelling the BoJ to reconsider and possibly retract its current ultra-accommodative monetary policy. Despite these factors, a subdued tone in the equity markets is expected to moderate the losses for the JPY and restrain any significant appreciation of the USD/JPY pair, especially given the current muted demand for the USD.

Investors and traders are exhibiting caution, opting to refrain from making bold directional bets until the release of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday. This report is anticipated to provide valuable insights into Japan’s inflationary trends and could influence the monetary policy outlook of the BoJ. In addition to the Tokyo CPI, the global financial market is also bracing for a series of pivotal events later in the week. These include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday, as well as crucial US economic data releases at the beginning of the new month. Of particular interest will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, a key indicator of the US labor market’s health.

The combination of these upcoming events and data releases will likely offer fresh perspectives on the Federal Reserve’s trajectory regarding interest rate adjustments. Such insights are expected to significantly impact the dynamics of the USD/JPY currency pair, as investors weigh the implications of monetary policy shifts in both the US and Japan.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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