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USD/JPY Bulls Cautious

USD/JPY Bulls Cautious Near 159.00, Highest Since April Amid Intervention Fears

USD/JPY Bulls Cautious Near 159.00, Highest Since April Amid Intervention Fears

The USD/JPY pair is trading within a narrow range during the Asian session on Friday, consolidating recent gains near the 159.00 mark, the highest level since late April. The pair’s fundamental backdrop supports prospects for further appreciation, although fears of intervention might limit the upside.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) reluctance to commit to near-term interest rate hikes. Data released earlier on Friday showed that Japan’s core-core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, slowed for the ninth consecutive month, easing to a 2.1% yearly rate from 2.4%. This data increases uncertainty about whether the BoJ will raise interest rates in July or later in the year. Additionally, the prevailing bullish sentiment in global equity markets reduces demand for the safe-haven JPY, providing a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) remains strong near the top end of its weekly trading range following a sharp rise in US Treasury bond yields overnight. This has further widened the US-Japan rate differential, putting additional pressure on the JPY and supporting the USD/JPY pair. However, investors remain cautious amid speculations that Japanese authorities might intervene to support the domestic currency. Moreover, increasing bets on an imminent start to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cutting cycle in September could limit further gains for the Greenback and the USD/JPY pair.

Despite these concerns, the USD/JPY pair is on track to end in positive territory for the second consecutive week. Investors are now looking forward to the release of global flash PMI prints for additional market direction. The upcoming US Existing Home Sales data, along with US bond yields and broader market risk sentiment, are also expected to provide short-term trading opportunities on the last day of the week.

Overall, while the USD/JPY pair has seen recent gains and stands at a significant level, the potential for intervention by Japanese authorities and the uncertain path of the BoJ’s monetary policy add layers of complexity to its future movements. Traders will need to stay vigilant to both Japanese economic indicators and broader market trends to navigate the near-term landscape effectively.

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GBP/USD Holds Steady at 1.2700, Awaits UK CPI Data

GBP/USD Holds Steady at 1.2700, Awaits UK CPI Data

GBP/USD Holds Steady at 1.2700, Awaits UK CPI Data

The GBP/USD pair is struggling to gain any significant traction on Wednesday, trading within a narrow range around the 1.2700 mark during the Asian session. Despite this, spot prices are holding above the one-month low reached last Friday, as traders eagerly anticipate the release of the latest UK consumer inflation figures before committing to any substantial moves.

The upcoming UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to show a slight increase, with monthly inflation ticking up to 0.4% in May from 0.3% in April. However, the annual inflation rate is projected to decelerate to 3.5% from the previous 3.9%. This data will be crucial in shaping market expectations for the British Pound (GBP) and could provide the necessary impetus for the GBP/USD pair to break out of its current trading range.

In addition to the inflation data, market participants are also focusing on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday. The decisions and guidance provided by the BoE will play a significant role in determining the near-term trajectory of the GBP/USD pair. Any indications of future rate hikes or a shift in the bank’s policy stance could lead to increased volatility and directional movement in the currency pair.

On the other side of the Atlantic, subdued price action in the US Dollar (USD) is also influencing the GBP/USD pair. Tuesday’s US Retail Sales report came in softer than expected, signaling potential fatigue among American consumers. This has reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may start cutting interest rates as early as September. Consequently, US Treasury bond yields have declined, undermining the USD and providing a supportive backdrop for the GBP/USD pair.

Despite these supportive factors, the GBP/USD pair has yet to attract significant follow-through buying. This cautious market sentiment is likely due to the looming uncertainty surrounding the key economic data and central bank meetings. Traders appear hesitant to position themselves aggressively before gaining more clarity from the upcoming UK CPI release and BoE meeting.

In summary, while the GBP/USD pair holds steady above its recent lows and is supported by a softer USD and positive expectations from the UK inflation data, the lack of decisive movement suggests that market participants are awaiting further confirmation from key economic events. The UK CPI data and the BoE’s policy decisions will be critical in providing direction for the GBP/USD pair in the coming days. Until then, the pair is likely to remain range-bound, oscillating around the 1.2700 level.

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EUR/USD Consolidates Near 1.0700

EUR/USD Consolidates Near 1.0700 After Recent Low

EUR/USD Consolidates Near 1.0700 After Recent Low

The EUR/USD pair starts the week on a subdued note, consolidating its recent losses to the lowest level since early May, around the 1.0670-1.0665 region touched on Friday. Currently trading around the 1.0700 mark, the pair appears vulnerable to further declines.

Concerns over a potential snap election in France, which could worsen the fiscal situation in the Eurozone’s second-largest economy, continue to weigh on the shared currency. The right-wing National Front party leads in the polls, and French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned on Friday of a financial crisis risk if either the far right or left won due to their heavy spending plans. This, coupled with a modest uptick in the US Dollar (USD), supports a near-term negative outlook for the EUR/USD pair.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish surprise at the end of the June policy meeting, indicating a median projection of just one rate cut in 2024, supports elevated US Treasury bond yields. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East bolster the safe-haven Greenback, suggesting a downward trend for the EUR/USD pair. However, signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US keep the door open for a potential interest rate cut by the Fed in September.

This outlook was reinforced by US data released on Friday, showing an unexpected drop in import prices in May, further boosting the domestic inflation outlook. Additionally, a survey by the University of Michigan revealed a sharp deterioration in US consumer sentiment in June, which might prevent USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and help limit losses for the EUR/USD pair. With no relevant US economic data due for release on Monday, the pair remains at the mercy of the USD.

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EUR/USD Declines for Third Consecutive Day

EUR/USD Declines for Third Consecutive Day Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

EUR/USD Declines for Third Consecutive Day Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

The EUR/USD experienced its third consecutive day of losses on Tuesday as market sentiment soured following the European Union parliamentary elections. The elections resulted in a significant shift towards center-right and far-right parties, with European voters showing strong support for these groups. Meanwhile, left-leaning political parties suffered steep losses, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction among EU citizens regarding economic fragility and the current policy strategies of the established European ruling parties.

This political upheaval in Europe has added to the market’s uncertainty. Investors are now anxiously awaiting key economic updates from the United States. On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision are due to be released. These announcements are expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment, which is currently quite volatile.

The US CPI inflation data is anticipated to show a cooling in April, with expectations of a 0.1% month-over-month increase compared to the previous month’s 0.3%. Annualized Core CPI inflation is also expected to tick down slightly to 3.5% year-over-year, from the previous 3.6%. These figures are critical as they will provide insight into the inflationary pressures facing the US economy and inform the Fed’s future policy decisions.

In addition to the CPI data, the Fed’s latest rate call and Monetary Policy Statement are set to draw significant attention. Although the Fed is broadly expected to hold interest rates steady this week, investors are particularly interested in updates to the Fed’s “dot plot” – a summary of interest rate expectations going forward. There is growing concern that the dot plot may shift, reflecting fewer or no rate cuts in 2024, which could have substantial implications for market dynamics.

The possibility of a significant adjustment in the Fed’s rate expectations has added to the market’s anxiety. Investors are increasingly worried that the Fed might signal a more hawkish stance, potentially indicating that the anticipated rate cuts in 2024 might not materialize. This scenario could further pressure the EUR/USD, which has already been affected by the recent political shifts in Europe and ongoing economic uncertainties.

As the market prepares for these pivotal announcements, the EUR/USD will likely remain under scrutiny. The combination of political instability in the EU and critical economic updates from the US sets the stage for continued volatility. Investors will be closely monitoring the outcomes of Wednesday’s data releases and the Fed’s communications for any indications of future policy directions.

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GBP/USD Defensive Below

GBP/USD Defensive Below 1.2750 Amid Stronger USD

GBP/USD Defensive Below 1.2750 Amid Stronger USD

During the early Asian trading hours on Monday, the GBP/USD pair recovered some of its lost ground, hovering around 1.2725. However, the upside for GBP/USD might be limited due to lower expectations of US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year, following stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Investors are now turning their attention to the UK employment data for May, which is scheduled for release on Tuesday. Additionally, key events on the US economic calendar this week include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which will be closely watched by the market.

On Friday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed a substantial increase of 272,000 jobs in May, up from a 165,000 rise in April and significantly above the market consensus of 185,000. Despite this strong job growth, the Unemployment Rate edged up to 4.0% in May from 3.9% in April. Average Hourly Earnings also showed an impressive year-over-year increase of 4.1% in May, revised up from 3.9% in April, and surpassing the estimated 3.9%. These figures, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, highlight the robustness of the US labor market.

The solid employment data has led to a reassessment of future monetary policy moves by the Federal Reserve. The likelihood of a rate cut before September has diminished, with futures traders seeing almost no chance of such a move, according to data from CME Group. This higher-for-longer rate outlook is expected to provide support for the US Dollar (USD) in the near term.In contrast, the focus in the UK will be on the employment data set to be released on Tuesday. This includes the Claimant Count Change, Employment Change, and Average Earnings data. Any indication of increased layoffs could prompt expectations of early rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE), which would likely weaken the Pound Sterling (GBP).

The market’s attention is also on the upcoming US CPI data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The CPI data will offer insights into the inflationary pressures in the US economy, while the Fed’s decision will provide guidance on the future path of interest rates. These events are crucial for the USD’s performance and, by extension, the GBP/USD pair’s movement.Overall, while the GBP/USD pair has shown some recovery, its upside potential may be constrained by the current economic data and central bank policies. Investors will be closely monitoring the UK employment report and the US CPI and Fed announcements for further direction.

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USD/CAD Holds Above Mid-1.3600s Ahead of US NFP

USD/CAD Holds Above Mid-1.3600s Ahead of US NFP

USD/CAD Holds Above Mid-1.3600s Ahead of US NFP

The USD/CAD pair is showing resilience below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), but it seems to struggle to attract any significant buyers during the Asian session on Friday. Currently, spot prices trade with a mild positive bias, hovering around the 1.3670 area. Traders are keenly awaiting the release of the US monthly employment details before making fresh directional bets.

The much-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to reveal that the US economy added 185,000 jobs in May, up from 175,000 in the previous month. Additionally, the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 3.9%. This data, along with Average Hourly Earnings, will play a crucial role in shaping the inflation outlook and the Federal Reserve’s future policy decisions. Consequently, this will influence the demand for the US Dollar (USD) and provide fresh directional impetus to the USD/CAD pair.

As the market heads into this key data risk, participants have been pricing in a higher probability that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September due to signs of a slowdown in the US economy. This expectation has kept US Treasury bond yields and the USD under pressure. Moreover, this week’s rebound in Crude Oil prices has supported the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD), further capping the USD/CAD pair’s upside.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) recently lowered its benchmark rate for the first time in four years, from a more than two-decade high, expressing concerns about slowing economic growth. The central bank also acknowledged improvements in underlying inflation, fueling speculations about another rate cut next month. This development could limit the Canadian Dollar’s gains and act as a supportive factor for the USD/CAD pair.

Given the mixed fundamental backdrop, aggressive traders should exercise caution, as the USD/CAD pair is more likely to continue its range-bound price action on the last trading day of the week. Despite this, spot prices remain on track to register modest weekly gains, although they stay within a familiar range held since early May.

In summary, the USD/CAD pair remains resilient below the 200-hour SMA but struggles to attract substantial buyers ahead of the US NFP report. The anticipated employment data will significantly influence USD demand and the pair’s direction. While market participants expect a Fed rate cut in September, supporting the CAD, the BoC’s recent rate cut and potential for another could cap the CAD’s upside, providing a mixed outlook for the USD/CAD pair. As such, the pair is likely to maintain its range-bound movement, with modest gains expected for the week.

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Japanese Yen Weakens as Investors Await Key US Data

Japanese Yen Weakens as Investors Await Key US Data

Japanese Yen Weakens as Investors Await Key US Data

On Wednesday, the Japanese Yen (JPY) edged lower as investors exercised caution ahead of crucial US economic data releases, including the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI reports. Market participants are also looking ahead to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, set to be released on Friday, which could further influence the currency markets.

The JPY is under pressure due to the interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, which favors the US Dollar (USD) over the Yen. The USD/JPY pair is buoyed by this rate disparity, which makes the USD more attractive to investors. However, the potential for significant gains in the USD/JPY pair is tempered by recent positive economic data from Japan.

On Wednesday, the Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI was revised upwards to 53.8 in May, from an initial reading of 53.6. Although this revision indicates an improvement, it still falls short of April’s eight-month peak of 54.3, suggesting the slowest growth in the Japanese service sector since February. 

Additionally, Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings surged by 2.1% year-on-year in April, surpassing forecasts of a 1.7% increase and marking the highest growth rate since June of the previous year. These stronger-than-expected figures offer some support to the JPY and could limit the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six major currencies, has edged higher, bolstered by rising US Treasury yields. However, the weaker US Manufacturing PMI for May has sparked speculation about a potential rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This softer-than-expected manufacturing data has led traders to price in nearly 64.9% odds of a Fed rate cut of at least 25 basis points by September, a notable increase from 46.3% just a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The upcoming US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI reports are expected to provide further insights into the health of the US economy. Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce the USD’s strength and put additional pressure on the JPY. Conversely, weaker data could heighten expectations for a Fed rate cut, potentially providing some relief to the Yen.

In conclusion, while the Japanese Yen is facing downward pressure due to the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, recent positive economic data from Japan and the potential for a Fed rate cut could influence the USD/JPY pair’s movements in the coming days. Investors will be closely monitoring the upcoming US economic data releases and the Nonfarm Payrolls report for further direction.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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WTI Falls Near $75.50 as Trump Plans to Boost Output and Impose Tariffs

WTI Falls Near $75.50 as Trump Plans to Boost Output and Impose Tariffs

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for US crude oil, is trading near $75.55 on Wednesday, retreating as US President Donald Trump announces plans to expand domestic oil and gas production and impose tariffs on key trading partners.

On Monday, Trump declared a national energy emergency, granting authority to fast-track approvals for oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically face years of regulatory hurdles. This move has sparked concerns about increased US output in a market already projected to face oversupply in the coming year.

Trump also hinted at imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% tariff on goods from China, starting February 1. Such measures could dampen economic growth, further pressuring oil demand and contributing to the weakness in crude prices.

Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted on Tuesday that oil prices are likely to decline this year and next due to sluggish economic activity and ongoing energy transition efforts. “Strong global growth in the production of petroleum and other liquids, coupled with slower demand growth, is expected to exert downward pressure on prices,” the EIA stated.

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WTI Crude Oil Prices Dip Below $68.50 Amid Stronger USD and Anticipation of OPEC+ Meeting

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading near $68.25 on Monday, pressured by a strengthening US Dollar (USD) and ongoing market uncertainty. A firmer USD, which makes USD-denominated commodities like oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, weighs heavily on crude prices.

Key Factors Impacting WTI Prices

  1. Stronger USD and Federal Reserve Outlook:
    • The USD gained momentum after US President-elect Donald Trump suggested imposing tariffs, raising fears of inflationary pressures. This development could lead to a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
    • Money markets reflect a 67.1% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in December and a 32.9% probability of the Fed holding rates steady, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
  2. Supportive Chinese Economic Data:
    • China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for November rose to 51.5, surpassing both October’s 50.3 and market expectations of 50.5.
    • The growth, driven by increased foreign orders and exports, provides a positive demand signal for crude oil as China remains one of the largest global consumers of energy.
  3. Geopolitical Tensions in West Asia:
    • Heightened tensions in the Middle East add a layer of uncertainty to oil supply. Iran has pledged support for the Syrian government after insurgents seized Aleppo, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions from the region.
  4. OPEC+ Meeting in Focus:
    • Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, now rescheduled for Thursday, to discuss output policy for 2025.
    • Some analysts, including Tony Sycamore from IG, suggest that an indefinite delay in production decisions might stabilize or even support oil prices, as previous delays failed to deliver the intended price boosts.

While a stronger USD continues to weigh on WTI, supportive Chinese economic indicators and ongoing geopolitical risks may provide some upside potential. Traders will focus on developments from the OPEC+ meeting for guidance on production policy, which could significantly influence oil market dynamics in the near term.

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WTI Steadies Above $68.50 Amid Surprise Crude Draw

WTI Steadies Above $68.50 Amid Surprise Crude Draw and Ceasefire Developments

WTI Steadies Above $68.50 Amid Surprise Crude Draw and Ceasefire Developments

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $68.65 as of Wednesday. The price remains stable, supported by an unexpected draw in US crude inventories, which offsets the potential bearish impact of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. Trading volumes are expected to remain light due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a notable 1.844 million barrel drop in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending November 22, surpassing expectations of a 1.3 million barrel decline. This bullish signal contrasts with a rise in gasoline inventories, which climbed by 3.3 million barrels compared to the previous week’s 2.1 million barrel increase.

On the geopolitical front, Israel’s ceasefire deal with Hezbollah marks a significant easing of tensions in the Middle East. However, the durability of the truce remains uncertain. Dennis Kissler, Senior VP of Trading at BOK Financial, commented,

Economic Factors Weighing on Oil Prices

In the broader market, recent US economic data points to stalled progress on inflation, dampening expectations for significant Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Markets currently price a 66.5% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in December, up from 55.7% before the release of the PCE data. However, the Fed is widely expected to maintain current rates at its January and March meetings.

The possibility of slower rate reductions could sustain high borrowing costs, potentially curbing economic activity and oil demand. This, coupled with easing geopolitical risks, could limit further upside for WTI.

While bearish pressures remain, the unexpected crude draw and continued focus on Middle East developments are likely to keep WTI prices supported in the near term.

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WTI Rebounds Above $70 Amid Escalating Russia-Ukraine Tensions

WTI Rebounds Above $70 Amid Escalating Russia-Ukraine Tensions

WTI Rebounds Above $70 Amid Escalating Russia-Ukraine Tensions

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading around $70.25 on Friday, recovering slightly as heightened fears of supply disruptions stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict bolster prices.

Geopolitical Developments Drive Oil Prices Higher

Rising tensions in Eastern Europe have been a key driver of crude market volatility. After Ukraine launched missile strikes into Russian territory using weapons supplied by the US and UK, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded with a hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile attack on a Ukrainian military facility. Putin also issued a warning to Western nations, threatening potential strikes on military installations assisting Ukraine, according to Reuters.

“The market’s focus has now shifted to heightened concerns about an escalation in the war in Ukraine,” noted Ole Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at SEB. Any signs of prolonged or intensified conflict could exacerbate fears of crude supply disruptions, lending further support to oil prices.

US Crude Stockpile Data Weighs on Gains

Despite geopolitical concerns, WTI gains were tempered by rising US crude inventories. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in stockpiles for the week ending November 15, exceeding the market’s expectation of a 0.400 million-barrel build, though lower than the prior week’s 2.089 million-barrel rise.

US Dollar Strength Caps Oil Upside

A stronger US Dollar (USD) has also limited WTI’s upside. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against six major currencies, is trading near 107.05, close to its yearly high of 107.15. The renewed demand for the USD makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially dampening global demand.

Outlook

WTI prices remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, inventory dynamics, and broader economic factors such as USD strength. Traders will closely monitor updates on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and upcoming US economic data, including PMI and consumer sentiment reports, for further cues on oil price movements.

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WTI Crude Stays Above $69 Amid Supply Worries Over Russia-Ukraine Conflict

WTI Crude Holds Above $69 on Rising Supply Concerns Amid Russia-Ukraine Tensions

WTI Crude Holds Above $69 on Rising Supply Concerns Amid Russia-Ukraine Tensions

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil continues its upward momentum, trading around $69.20 per barrel during Tuesday’s Asian session, marking its second consecutive day of gains. The rally is fueled by heightened supply concerns stemming from the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Over the weekend, Russia carried out its most significant airstrike on Ukraine in nearly three months, targeting critical power infrastructure. The attack has intensified fears of a potential disruption in energy supplies, further supporting crude prices.

Adding to the tensions, US President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to deploy Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike targets within Russia, as reported by CNN, citing US officials. The Kremlin has condemned the move, labeling it reckless, and warned of potential retaliation, heightening the risk of broader geopolitical instability and its implications for energy markets.

Supply concerns were exacerbated by a production halt at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield, Western Europe’s largest, due to a power outage. Operator Equinor is working to restore operations but has yet to confirm when production will resume, according to Reuters.
Last week, oil prices faced downward pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, citing a strong US economy and persistent inflation challenges. Additionally, concerns about weakening demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, have added to bearish sentiment.

Traders will now closely monitor developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, updates on Norwegian oil production, and indicators of global demand recovery for further direction.

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WTI Holds Steady Near $68.50 Amid US Dollar Strength

WTI Holds Steady Near $68.50 Amid US Dollar Strength

WTI Holds Steady Near $68.50 Amid US Dollar Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for US crude oil, trades near $68.40 on Friday, maintaining stability as a sharp drop in US gasoline inventories counterbalances concerns about an oversupply.

According to the latest report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude stocks rose by 2.089 million barrels for the week ending November 8, slightly below the previous week’s increase of 2.149 million barrels. Market expectations had forecast a 1.85 million-barrel rise. In contrast, gasoline inventories in the US fell by 4.4 million barrels, reaching a two-year low and defying forecasts of a 600,000-barrel increase, which points to robust fuel demand.

However, a stronger US Dollar (USD) could limit WTI’s potential gains. The USD, as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), currently trades near 106.90 after reaching a year-to-date high of 107.05, which makes oil more costly for international buyers and could weigh on demand.

Dennis Kissler, senior VP of trading at BOK Financial, commented that crude prices are seeking stability as a stronger USD and anticipated policy changes from a Trump-led Congress are likely to counteract some of the Biden administration’s energy policies, further complicating oil’s price trajectory.

Additional downward pressure on WTI comes from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which issued its fourth consecutive downward revision for global oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025. OPEC cited slower demand in key regions such as China and India as contributing factors to its revised forecast.

While WTI finds support from tight gasoline supplies, the robust USD and weaker demand outlook from OPEC suggest limited upside in the near term.

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WTI Slips to Near $68.00 on Disappointment

WTI Slips to Near $68.00 on Disappointment Over Chinese Stimulus, Stronger US Dollar

WTI Slips to Near $68.00 on Disappointment Over Chinese Stimulus, Stronger US Dollar

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades around $68.00 on Tuesday as it faces downward pressure from concerns about trade tensions and weak demand growth in China. Fears are mounting that the Trump administration’s plans for new tariffs could reignite a trade war, potentially hindering China’s economic recovery and slowing crude oil demand.

Donald Trump’s election victory and his proposed tariffs—ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports, with additional tariffs on up to 60% of Chinese goods—are expected to impact WTI prices as a renewed US-China trade war could hurt Chinese economic growth and, consequently, oil demand.

A stronger US Dollar (USD) is also weighing on WTI. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of major currencies, recently reached a four-month high near 105.70, making oil, which is priced in USD, more expensive for foreign buyers. That said, some profit-taking in the USD may limit WTI’s downside for now.
In addition, Beijing’s latest stimulus measures announced last Friday fell short of market expectations, and recent economic data has not eased concerns. October’s data showed that Chinese consumer prices rose at their slowest pace in four months, while producer price deflation worsened, casting doubts on demand growth in the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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US Data and Trump Drive Sentiment in the FX Market

US Data and Trump Drive Sentiment in the FX Market

The US Dollar Index (DXY) managed to recover some ground, though a breakout above the 108.00 level remains out of reach for now. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims take the spotlight alongside the EIA’s report on US crude oil inventories, providing key cues for market sentiment.

The EUR/USD rally lost steam after reaching multi-week highs above the 1.0400 level. Meanwhile, the European Commission is set to release its preliminary Consumer Confidence data for January, which could influence further movement in the pair.

The GBP/USD pair traded lower as the modest recovery in the US Dollar applied pressure. Focus shifts to the UK’s CBI Business Optimism Index and CBI Industrial Trends Orders, which will offer fresh insights into the country’s economic outlook.

The USD/JPY pair remained volatile, climbing above the 156.00 level as investors positioned themselves ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) January 24 meeting. In the meantime, upcoming Trade Balance data and Foreign Bond Investment figures will be closely monitored.

The AUD/USD pair saw another indecisive session, trading near the critical 0.6300 level. Attention now turns to Australia’s preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which will be key for determining near-term market direction.

Commodity Market Highlights

  • WTI crude oil prices extended their decline, revisiting the $75.00 per barrel level as markets continued to digest the implications of President Trump’s policies.
  • Gold prices rose for the third consecutive session, exceeding $2,760 per troy ounce amid heightened uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s announcements.
  • Silver prices faced selling pressure after failing to break above the $31.00 per ounce threshold, reflecting mixed sentiment in the precious metals market.

The FX market remains heavily influenced by US data releases and evolving geopolitical developments, with Trump’s policies adding another layer of volatility.

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USD/JPY Climbs Toward 156.00 as Japanese Yen Maintains Intraday Weakness

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens broadly during Wednesday’s Asian trading session, allowing the USD/JPY pair to extend its recovery from over a one-month low. A risk-on sentiment, reflected in positive equity market performance, undermines the safe-haven JPY. Additionally, a modest uptick in US Treasury bond yields supports the US Dollar (USD), further pressuring the lower-yielding JPY.

Despite the JPY’s current softness, meaningful depreciation remains constrained by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce an interest rate hike following its two-day policy meeting concluding Thursday. Conversely, market bets on two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) later this year could weigh on US bond yields and the USD, urging caution before confirming a near-term bottom for the USD/JPY pair.

Japanese Yen Bulls Remain Cautious Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Hawkish commentary from BoJ officials, combined with optimism about wage growth sustaining Japan’s 2% inflation target, bolsters the case for a rate hike. BoJ policymakers have reiterated that widespread, sustained wage increases are a prerequisite for tightening monetary policy.

On Wednesday, labor negotiations between Japan’s largest business lobby, Keidanren, and trade unions commenced, with expectations for significant wage hikes. These developments align with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s focus on achieving wage growth surpassing inflation, an integral part of his economic strategy. Markets are pricing in a more than 90% probability that the BoJ will increase interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5%—a level unseen since the 2008 global financial crisis.

US Factors: Tariff Talk and Inflation Expectations

US President Donald Trump has hinted at imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico as early as February, alongside the possibility of broader tariff measures. While these tariffs could hinder economic growth, they also have the potential to increase inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy outlook.

Meanwhile, recent US inflation data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), indicates easing inflationary pressures, strengthening expectations for two additional Fed rate cuts in 2025.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Key Levels

The USD/JPY pair has rebounded from a one-month low near the 154.75 level and is testing the 155.00 psychological barrier. Oscillators on the daily chart lack negative momentum, suggesting caution for bearish traders.

  • Support Levels: A sustained break below 155.00 could lead to further declines toward 154.50-154.45, with potential extensions to 154.00, mid-153.00s, and 153.00.
  • Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is seen near the 156.00 mark, followed by the 156.25 region (overnight swing high) and the weekly top at 156.55-156.60. A sustained move beyond these levels could open the door to 157.00, 157.25-157.30, and 158.00, with a potential retest of the multi-month peak near 159.00.
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Japanese Yen Trims Intraday Gains Against USD; Bullish Momentum Persists

Japanese Yen Trims Intraday Gains Against USD; Bullish Momentum Persists

The Japanese Yen (JPY) holds its ground against the US Dollar (USD) in the European session, trading just below the one-month high reached earlier on Tuesday. Renewed fears of a global trade war, sparked by US President Donald Trump’s tariff comments, coupled with expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike later this week, underpin the JPY’s strength as a safe-haven currency.

Factors Supporting the Japanese Yen
US Treasury bond yields have extended a week-long decline amid expectations of two Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year. This narrowing of the US-Japan rate differential provides additional support to the JPY. However, the USD/JPY pair has rebounded over 50 pips from its intraday low of 154.75, buoyed by a modest recovery in the USD after its overnight drop to a two-week low.

BoJ Rate Hike Expectations Drive Sentiment
Hawkish signals from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, alongside rising inflationary pressures in Japan, have significantly bolstered market expectations for a BoJ rate hike. The probability of a rate increase at this week’s policy meeting stands at 80%. Reports suggest the BoJ will finalize its decision after closely analyzing economic data, market trends, and the potential implications of US economic policies.

Trump’s Trade Policies Add to Volatility
President Trump’s announcement of impending 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, effective as early as February, has reignited concerns about global trade tensions. He further warned of potential tariffs on China if it fails to approve a TikTok deal. These developments revive inflation concerns, which could push the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance and support a USD rebound from its recent lows.

Comments from Japanese Officials
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reaffirmed the BoJ’s commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target while emphasizing the importance of assessing US economic policies’ global impact. Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura also highlighted the need to monitor China’s export strength and its influence on Japan’s economy.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch for USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair remains resilient above the 155.00 level, with the lower boundary of a multi-month ascending channel providing support. A confirmed breakdown below this level is essential for bears to gain control. A slide below 154.50-154.45 could accelerate losses toward the 154.00, mid-153.00s, and ultimately the 153.00 region.

On the upside, the 156.25 mark serves as the immediate resistance. A break above the overnight high at 156.58-156.60 could pave the way for a recovery to 157.00. Sustained momentum beyond 157.30 may target the 157.60 and 158.00 levels, with potential for retesting the multi-month high of 159.00 recorded on January 10.

Outlook
With no significant economic data releases on Tuesday from either Japan or the US, market focus remains on the BoJ’s two-day policy meeting beginning Thursday. This event is expected to shape the near-term direction of the Japanese Yen. In the meantime, trade war fears and shifting expectations for US and Japanese monetary policies continue to drive market dynamics.

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US Core PCE Inflation Likely to Hold Steady

US Core PCE Inflation Likely to Hold Steady, Casting Doubt on Additional Fed Rate Cuts

US Core PCE Inflation Likely to Hold Steady, Casting Doubt on Additional Fed Rate Cuts

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release October’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. As the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, this data will provide insights into the trajectory of inflation and its potential impact on monetary policy decisions.

This release coincides with a busy macroeconomic calendar due to the Thanksgiving holiday, including Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and the second estimate of Q3 GDP. The overlapping reports may dilute the immediate market impact of the PCE data on the US Dollar (USD).

Core PCE Inflation Outlook

The core PCE Price Index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month (m/m) in October, matching September’s increase. Annually, core PCE inflation is forecasted to edge higher to 2.8% from 2.7%, while the headline annual PCE inflation may rise to 2.3% from 2.1%.

Fed’s Perspective on Inflation

At its November meeting, the Fed reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5%-4.75%, signaling inflation had “made progress” toward the 2% target. However, policymakers noted limited movement in core PCE inflation over recent months, raising questions about the pace of further rate adjustments.

TD Securities predicts headline PCE inflation to rise 0.27% m/m, with core PCE at 0.31% m/m, and supercore inflation (services excluding housing) accelerating to 0.39% m/m. Consumer spending, a key economic driver, is projected to increase just 0.3% m/m in nominal terms, showing muted real growth.

Market Implications and Risks

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool suggests a 41% probability of the Fed maintaining its current policy rate at the December meeting. This highlights the USD’s two-way risk heading into the release.

A stronger-than-expected PCE print could reignite hawkish speculation, potentially lifting the USD and pressuring equities. Conversely, weaker data might bolster the case for additional rate cuts, dampening the USD.

Key Takeaways for Markets

  • Inflation Stickiness: Any upward surprise in core PCE could challenge the Fed’s easing trajectory.
  • Consumer Spending Concerns: Sluggish spending data may hint at broader economic headwinds.
  • Two-Way Risks: Traders must navigate mixed signals from inflation, growth, and employment metrics, making the USD’s reaction to the PCE data less predictable.

This report will provide critical clues as markets evaluate whether inflation’s progress aligns with the Fed’s expectations and assess the likelihood of further monetary easing heading into 2024.

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Australian Dollar Holds Steady After Initial Gains Amid Stable US Dollar

Australian Dollar Holds Steady After Initial Gains Amid Stable US Dollar

Australian Dollar Holds Steady After Initial Gains Amid Stable US Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) maintained a steady position on Monday after paring earlier gains as the US Dollar (USD) continued to undergo a corrective pullback. The USD’s downward trajectory was partly driven by optimism in bond markets following President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent, known for his fiscal conservatism and Wall Street experience, contributed to improved market sentiment.

Key Drivers for AUD Strength:

  1. Global and Domestic Market Optimism:
    • The AUD benefited from robust foreign inflows as Australia’s equity markets surged to record highs.
    • The S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.63% to exceed 8,450 points, mirroring Wall Street’s rally, with the Dow Jones closing at record highs on Friday.
  2. Hawkish RBA Outlook:
    • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reinforced its commitment to restrictive monetary policy until inflation sustainably aligns with its target range.
    • The RBA emphasized a data-dependent approach for future decisions, keeping markets attentive to incoming economic indicators.
  3. Upcoming Domestic Data Focus:
    • Traders are eyeing Australia’s October Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a pivotal release that could influence expectations regarding the RBA’s next policy moves.

Outlook for the AUD/USD Pair:
While the AUD finds support from improved risk sentiment and a steady RBA stance, its trajectory will largely depend on upcoming data releases and broader USD dynamics. A sustained rally in Australian equities and solid inflation data could further strengthen the currency, while any shifts in global risk appetite or USD recovery may temper its gains.

Markets remain focused on domestic CPI figures and potential updates from the US Federal Reserve, both of which will play a crucial role in determining the near-term path of the AUD/USD exchange

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UK CPI Expected to Accelerate in October

UK CPI Expected to Accelerate in October, Reducing Odds of Further BoE Rate Cuts

UK CPI Expected to Accelerate in October, Reducing Odds of Further BoE Rate Cuts

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT. This inflation report is pivotal for determining the Bank of England’s (BoE) future interest rate policy and could significantly impact the Pound Sterling’s trajectory.

Key Expectations for UK CPI Data

  • Annual Headline CPI: Expected to rise to 2.2% in October from 1.7% in September, moving back above the BoE’s 2.0% target.
  • Core CPI Inflation: Forecasted to ease slightly to 3.1% YoY from 3.2% in September.
  • Services Inflation: Anticipated to edge lower to 4.8% YoY from 4.9%, aligning closely with the BoE’s 5.0% projection.
  • Monthly CPI: Projected to increase by 0.5% after a flat 0% reading in September.

Societe Generale analysts attribute the expected headline CPI rise to base effects and higher utility prices, noting that services inflation could climb slightly to 5% YoY, though downside risks remain.

Impact on BoE Policy and GBP/USD

Following its November 7 decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%, the BoE emphasized a cautious approach to future rate adjustments, maintaining a restrictive stance to ensure inflation returns sustainably to its 2.0% target.

  • Higher-than-Expected CPI: Would likely reduce market expectations of further rate cuts and could provide a boost to the Pound Sterling. GBP/USD may see a recovery from recent six-week lows, with the pair testing resistance levels.
  • Lower-than-Expected CPI: Could reinforce the case for continued BoE easing, weighing heavily on GBP/USD and potentially pushing the pair toward the 1.2500 psychological level.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey recently highlighted inflationary pressures from the Labour government’s tax policies, reinforcing the central bank’s cautious approach to monetary easing.

Technical Outlook for GBP/USD

Key Levels to Watch:

  • Upside: Immediate resistance lies at the 1.2750 level, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.2820 and the 21-day SMA at 1.2858.
  • Downside: Immediate support is seen at multi-month lows of 1.2597, with further downside potential toward the 1.2500 round level.

RSI and Moving Averages:
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, signaling persistent downside risks. Additionally, the 21-day SMA is poised to cross below the 200-day SMA, forming a bearish “Death Cross” pattern, which could amplify selling pressure.

Conclusion

The UK CPI report will play a critical role in shaping market expectations for the BoE’s monetary policy trajectory. A stronger inflation print may support a GBP/USD recovery, while weaker-than-expected data could deepen losses. Traders should also watch for additional cues from the UK Finance Minister’s Autumn Budget and BoE commentary to gauge the broader economic outlook.

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Australian Dollar Steady Amid RBA’s Restrictive Policy Outlook

Australian Dollar Holds Steady as RBA Minutes Highlight Need for Restrictive Policy

Australian Dollar Holds Steady as RBA Minutes Highlight Need for Restrictive Policy

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remained stable against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) November Meeting Minutes on Tuesday. The minutes underscored the board’s cautious stance on inflation, emphasizing the continued need for restrictive monetary policy to mitigate potential risks.

While the RBA board did not signal an “immediate need” to adjust the cash rate, it left the option open for future changes, maintaining flexibility in its policy approach. Current projections are based on the assumption that the cash rate will stay unchanged until mid-2025.

The AUD also found support from recent hawkish comments by RBA Governor Michele Bullock. Bullock stressed that interest rates are already at restrictive levels and will not be altered until the central bank is confident in the inflation outlook.

Meanwhile, developments in China—a key trading partner for Australia—add to market sentiment. On Tuesday, a senior official from China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) stated that the country has sufficient policy tools to sustain economic recovery. The official expressed optimism about the economic outlook, projecting steady recovery momentum through the remainder of the year. Changes in China’s economy often have significant implications for Australian markets due to their close trade ties.

In contrast, the US Dollar remains in a downward correction, even as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials recently delivered hawkish comments. However, the Greenback’s losses may be cushioned by expectations that the incoming Trump administration will prioritize tax cuts and higher tariffs—measures that could drive inflation and slow the pace of future Fed rate cuts.

Market participants now turn their attention to the upcoming US data on October Building Permits and Housing Starts, set for release later on Tuesday, as they seek further clarity on economic trends.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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