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Wall Street is poised to start the week slightly higher as investors closely watch the latest inflation data, seeking confirmation

What’s Moving Markets: US CPI, Retail Earnings, and UK Inflation

What’s Moving Markets: US CPI, Retail Earnings, and UK Inflation

Wall Street is poised to start the week slightly higher as investors closely watch the latest inflation data, seeking confirmation that the Federal Reserve might begin cutting interest rates in September. While the quarterly earnings season is winding down, the retail sector will take center stage in the coming days.

  1. July CPI in Focus

The trajectory of U.S. interest rates remains a key concern for investors, making Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price data the most anticipated economic release of the week.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, known for her typically hawkish stance, acknowledged some progress on inflation recently, though she stressed that it still remains “uncomfortably above” the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed held its policy rate steady at 5.25%-5.50% in late July but hinted at a possible rate cut in September if inflation continues to ease.

The July CPI is expected to show further movement toward the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target, with core inflation predicted to drop slightly to 3.2%, its lowest level since April 2021. Fed fund futures suggest a 49% chance of a half-point rate cut in September, down from a near certainty last week.

  1. Futures Edge Higher on Inflation Watch

U.S. stock futures rose modestly on Monday, as investors cautiously approach a week filled with key inflation data and significant retail earnings.

As of 04:00 ET (08:00 GMT), Dow futures were up 40 points (0.1%), S&P 500 futures gained 11 points (0.2%), and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 60 points (0.3%).

Last week, the main Wall Street indices ended with minor losses, recovering slightly after an early-week slump. Jobless claims data helped ease concerns about the labor market and the overall health of the U.S. economy. Now, the focus shifts to the consumer price index and insights from several Federal Reserve officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.

Comments from these policymakers last Thursday suggested growing confidence that inflation is cooling enough to warrant rate cuts.

  1. Earnings Season Winds Down

As the quarterly earnings season draws to a close, the spotlight shifts to key retailers like Home Depot (NYSE

) and Walmart (NYSE

), who are set to report this week. Investors are particularly interested in the outlook for consumer spending, a critical driver of economic growth, amid recent signs of economic softness.

Other prominent companies reporting include Cisco Systems (NASDAQ

) and Fox Corporation (NASDAQ

). In Europe, UBS (SIX

) reports on Wednesday, and it’s a busy week for insurers like Hannover Re (OTC

), Aviva (LON

), NN Group (AS

), and Admiral (LON

). China’s leading internet firms, including Tencent Holdings (OTC

), Alibaba Group (NYSE

), and JD.com (NASDAQ

), will also announce their June quarter results.

  1. UK Inflation in the Spotlight

The U.K. has a packed economic data calendar this week as investors seek clues on whether the Bank of England will continue its rate-cutting cycle next month.

After cutting rates for the first time since 2020 earlier this month, the BoE faces a market pricing in a roughly 33% chance of another quarter-point cut in September. Wage growth data, due Tuesday, and Wednesday’s inflation figures will be closely monitored for signs of persistent price pressures, particularly in the still-hot services sector.

Catherine Mann, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, expressed concerns in a podcast about the persistence of wage and price pressures, suggesting that these could be structural and take years to dissipate. Mann voted against this month’s rate cut, in a narrow 5-4 decision.

  1. Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise

Crude oil prices climbed for the fifth consecutive session on Monday, supported by easing concerns over the U.S. economy and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

As of 04:00 ET, U.S. crude futures (WTI) were up 0.9% to $77.55 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.7% to $80.25 a barrel. Both benchmarks gained over 3% last week, their first positive week in five.

Geopolitical risks, particularly fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supplies, have added a risk premium to prices. Encouraging U.S. economic data, suggesting that a recession in the world’s largest oil consumer is not imminent, also bolstered the oil market last week.

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Asian stock markets

Asian Stocks Climb on Eased Recession Worries, Positive China Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Climb on Eased Recession Worries, Positive China Inflation Data

Asian stock markets saw gains on Friday as fears of an imminent U.S. recession eased, bolstered by mildly encouraging inflation data from China, which lifted investor sentiment.

However, despite the upbeat session, regional markets were still on track to post weekly losses, having experienced steep declines earlier in the week.

Asian stocks benefited from a positive handover from Wall Street, where better-than-expected jobless claims data suggested that the U.S. labor market might not be in as much trouble as initially feared. U.S. stock index futures also saw a slight uptick during Asian trading hours.

Chinese Markets Lag Behind Despite Positive CPI Data

China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes each rose by 0.3%, though they underperformed compared to other Asian markets. Both indexes were down approximately 0.8% for the week, marking their third consecutive week of losses.

China’s inflation data showed some signs of improvement. The consumer price index (CPI) rose more than expected, while the producer price index (PPI) contracted at a slower pace than anticipated. This suggests that the series of interest rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China in July may be beginning to yield results. However, it remains uncertain whether these measures will be enough to reverse China’s broader deflationary trend.

Investor sentiment towards Chinese markets has deteriorated in recent weeks, driven by a series of weak economic indicators. As a result, the country’s benchmark indexes are hovering near six-month lows.

Japanese Stocks Rally, Recovering Weekly Losses

Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indexes surged by 2% and 1.5%, respectively, on Friday. While both indexes were still on track to lose about 1.5% for the week, they managed to recover a significant portion of their earlier losses.

The rebound in Japanese markets followed efforts by Bank of Japan officials to downplay the central bank’s unexpectedly hawkish stance from the previous week. Bargain hunting in major tech stocks and strong earnings reports from companies like Tokyo Electron, which rose 1.7% after posting better-than-expected quarterly earnings, also supported the recovery.

Broader Asian markets also advanced, with tech-heavy indexes such as South Korea’s KOSPI and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rising between 1.5% and 2%. These gains mirrored the rebound seen in U.S. markets.

Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.4% but remained down 1.9% for the week, having clawed back most of its earlier losses.

Futures for India’s Nifty 50 index indicated a slightly positive open after the index, along with the BSE Sensex 30, fell on Thursday. The decline followed the Reserve Bank of India’s unexpectedly hawkish stance and a slight downgrade in its growth outlook for the current quarter.

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Australian Dollar Appreciates Amid Hawkish Sentiment

Australian Dollar Appreciates Amid Hawkish Sentiment Surrounding RBA

Australian Dollar Appreciates Amid Hawkish Sentiment Surrounding RBA

The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) following comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock on Thursday. Bullock emphasized the need to remain vigilant about inflation risks, indicating the possibility of further rate hikes if necessary. She noted that inflation might not return to the RBA’s 2–3% target range until the end of 2025. The AUD/USD pair also gained support from the RBA’s decision to maintain the cash rate at 4.35% earlier this week, reinforcing a hawkish outlook.

In contrast, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting stance starting in September, driven by weaker July employment data and growing concerns about a potential recession. The CME Fed Watch tool now shows a 72.0% probability of a 50-basis point interest rate cut by the Fed in September, a sharp increase from 11.8% just a week ago. This expectation of deeper rate cuts is likely to weigh on the US Dollar in the near term.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar Hovers Around 0.6550

On Thursday, the Australian Dollar is trading around 0.6530. Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the AUD/USD pair is consolidating above a descending channel, signaling a potential weakening of the bearish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen from the oversold level of 30, indicating the possibility of further upward movement.

In terms of support, the AUD/USD pair may find support around the upper boundary of the descending channel near the 0.6470 level. A break below this support could push the pair down toward the lower boundary of the channel around 0.6420.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6535, with additional resistance at 0.6575, where previous support has now turned into resistance. A breakout above this level could drive the AUD/USD pair toward a six-month high of 0.6798.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Continues to Decline Near 1.0900 Amid US Dollar Strength

EUR/USD Continues to Decline Near 1.0900 Amid US Dollar Strength

The EUR/USD pair is trading lower around 1.0915 after pulling back from seven-month highs near 1.1008 during the Asian session on Wednesday. A stronger US Dollar (USD) is putting downward pressure on the pair. Investors are now looking ahead to Germany’s June Trade Balance and Industrial Production reports, expected later today.

Improved risk sentiment and rising US Treasury bond yields are offering some support to the Greenback. However, market participants are anticipating more aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting in September. This expectation could limit the USD’s gains and potentially provide a boost to EUR/USD. Currently, the market has priced in a 69.5% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut in September, up significantly from 13.2% last week, according to the CME Fed Watch tool.

In the US, the trade deficit narrowed to $73.1 billion in June, with exports of goods and services increasing at their fastest pace this year, according to the US Census Bureau’s Tuesday report.

On the other hand, weak data from the eurozone is putting additional pressure on the Euro (EUR). Eurostat reported on Tuesday that Eurozone retail sales unexpectedly fell by 0.3% in June, compared to a 0.5% increase in May. The market had expected a modest 0.1% rise.

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Australian Dollar

Australian Dollar Rises After Hawkish Remarks from RBA Governor Bullock

Australian Dollar Rises After Hawkish Remarks from RBA Governor Bullock

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has strengthened following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent monetary policy decision on Tuesday. The RBA opted to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% for the sixth consecutive time. After the decision, RBA Governor Michele Bullock spoke at a press conference, stressing the importance of maintaining focus on inflation. Bullock pointed out the ongoing risk that inflation could take longer to reach the target, indicating that interest rates may need to stay elevated for an extended period. She also noted that a near-term reduction in the cash rate does not align with the current strategy.

The AUD has faced pressure against the US Dollar (USD) due to rapid policy shifts by central banks and growing concerns about a potential hard landing for the US economy. Additionally, second-quarter inflation data has lowered expectations for another rate hike by the RBA. Market forecasts now anticipate an RBA rate cut as soon as November, much earlier than the previous prediction of April next year.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar is weakening as expectations build for a 50-basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 74.5% probability of this larger-than-expected cut occurring at the September meeting, a sharp increase from the 11.4% likelihood reported just a week earlier.

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EUR/JPY Stabilizes Around 157.00, Rebounds

EUR/JPY Stabilizes Around 157.00, Rebounds Following PMI Data

EUR/JPY Stabilizes Around 157.00, Rebounds Following PMI Data

EUR/JPY continues its downtrend for the sixth consecutive day, trading around 156.90 during the early European session on Monday. However, the pair has trimmed some of its intraday losses after the release of key economic data, including the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) and Germany’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

The HCOB Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July edged up to 50.2, slightly above the forecasted 50.1. Meanwhile, Germany’s Composite PMI registered at 49.1, compared to the anticipated 48.7 and previous readings. The Services PMI also rose to 52.5, surpassing expectations and the prior 52.0 figure.

In Europe, market participants are anticipating at least two additional rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2024, with the next cut likely to occur in September. ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras indicated in a Thursday interview that the sluggish eurozone economy might push inflation below the ECB’s 2% target, supporting his outlook for two interest rate cuts this year, as reported by Reuters.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is gaining strength amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might further tighten its monetary policy, which could offer continued support to the JPY in the near term.

Minutes from the BoJ’s June meeting revealed that some members expressed concern about rising import prices due to the recent weakening of the JPY, which could pose an upside risk to inflation. One member emphasized that cost-push inflation could intensify underlying inflation if it leads to higher inflation expectations and wage growth.

Additionally, safe-haven demand is bolstering the JPY, exerting downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross. This trend is partly driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On Sunday, an Israeli airstrike struck two schools, resulting in at least 30 casualties, according to Reuters. Moreover, U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken indicated that Iran and Hezbollah might be preparing to launch an attack against Israel as early as Monday, based on information from three sources briefed on the situation, as reported by Axios.

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USD/CHF Extends Losses Amid Rising Fed Rate Cut Prospects

USD/CHF Extends Losses Amid Rising Fed Rate Cut Prospects

USD/CHF Extends Losses Amid Rising Fed Rate Cut Prospects

The USD/CHF pair continues its decline for the fourth consecutive trading day on Monday, staying below the key psychological level of 0.9000. This decline is primarily driven by a weakening US Dollar (USD) amid increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will shift towards policy normalization starting from the September meeting.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, found temporary support near a three-week low around 104.85. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields edged higher to 4.3% but remained close to their weekly low.

The growing expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates sooner than previously anticipated have negatively impacted the USD and bond yields. In the latest dot plot, Fed officials indicated only one rate cut for this year, expected in the last quarter. However, the possibility of the Fed lowering interest rates as early as September has increased, partly due to signs of moderating strength in the US labor market. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June showed the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.1%, while annual Average Hourly Earnings, an indicator of wage inflation, decelerated as expected to 3.9%. Although the payrolls data exceeded estimates, it remained below May’s figures.

This week, investors are particularly focused on the US inflation data for June, scheduled to be released on Thursday. This data will be crucial in shaping expectations for future Fed policy moves.

On the Swiss Franc front, easing inflationary pressures could prompt the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to consider further interest rate reductions. The annual Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerated to 1.3% in June, slightly below economists’ expectations of a steady growth rate of 1.4%. This decline in inflation suggests that the SNB might continue its trend of reducing interest rates to manage economic conditions effectively.

Overall, the combination of a potentially dovish Fed and easing inflation in Switzerland is creating a complex trading environment for the USD/CHF pair. Market participants will closely watch upcoming economic indicators and central bank communications to navigate these dynamics. The key factors to monitor include the US inflation data and any further signals from the Fed regarding their policy direction, which could significantly impact the future trajectory of the USD/CHF pair.

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Chinese Stocks Rally, but Global Funds Remain Skeptical

Chinese Stocks Rally, but Global Funds Remain Skeptical

Chinese Stocks Rally, but Global Funds Remain Skeptical

Chinese stocks have potentially reached their lowest point, yet there remains a significant hesitation among money managers to reengage fully with the market. The MSCI China Index has seen a 27% rise since its January low, primarily driven by a shift towards undervalued stocks. However, this increase in value hasn’t yet been backed by convincing Chinese corporate earnings, according to insights from Lombard Odier, Pictet Asset Management, and Fidelity International. Despite some optimistic views, such as those from abrdn plc emphasizing the importance of profit gains, the broader investment sentiment remains cautious.

At a glance, Chinese equities haven’t looked this appealing in some time, with major indices entering bull markets bolstered by supportive policies, and long-only funds ceasing to cut positions. However, persistent economic uncertainties and ongoing strategic tensions with the US have diminished the appeal of Chinese stocks as a staple in emerging-market portfolios. John Woods, Chief Investment Officer for Asia at Lombard Odier, notes that tactical plays on short-lived rallies are less preferred than a focus on earnings and fundamentals.

The recent rally, starting in April, took many by surprise, including analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who noted a widespread fear of missing out among traders. To date, Chinese stocks have regained about $2.5 trillion in market value, recuperating over one third of the losses from a historic downturn earlier this year. This recovery is partly due to a rotation from markets like the US, Japan, and India, where stocks are peaking, towards the relatively low valuations in China, marking the longest stretch of net purchases via Hong Kong trading links in a year.

David Mudd, founder and CIO of PegasusAsia, a hedge fund, predicts a continued shift towards Chinese tech firms from their US counterparts, setting the stage for potential divergences and intriguing trading pairs. The MSCI China Index currently trades at 10 times forward earnings, significantly below both its five-year average and the 20.6 times earnings of the S&P 500.

Nicholas Yeo, head of China equities at abrdn, describes the recent market surge as a technical rebound due to historically low valuations, emphasizing that its sustainability will hinge on forthcoming earnings reports. In contrast, John Lin from AllianceBernstein expresses skepticism, pointing out that the current earnings growth expectations for Chinese stocks, around 10%, may be overly optimistic without supporting corporate performance.As the earnings season progresses, companies within the MSCI China Index have reported a nearly 30% drop in net profits before exceptional items as of mid-May. The upcoming earnings reports from tech giants like Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. are highly anticipated, as they could be pivotal in determining the rally’s durability.

Additional momentum for the rally comes from signs of increased policy support in Beijing, especially measures aimed at addressing the stagnant property sector. Simultaneously, the persistent high policy rates in the US make Chinese stocks an attractive alternative, particularly in the tech sector. The Golden Dragon Index, which tracks US-listed Chinese firms, recently experienced a notable rise, fueled by robust quarterly results from Tencent Music Entertainment Group.

Despite the tempting market conditions, Luca Paolini from Pictet remains cautious, opting for tactical investments in China. Morgan Stanley’s strategists, including Laura Wang, advise against chasing the rally, although they recognize specific opportunities. As Beijing encourages companies to enhance dividends and buybacks, and incentivizes key industries like semiconductors, Chinese equities are gradually becoming attractive to value-focused investors, as noted by George Efstathopoulos from Fidelity. However, the critical determinant remains the improvement in consumer sentiment within China, a factor that is still considered fragile.

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Hong Kong Attempts to Attract Saudi Investment to Revitalize Stock Market

Hong Kong Attempts to Attract Saudi Investment to Revitalize Stock Market

Hong Kong Attempts to Attract Saudi Investment to Revitalize Stock Market

Hong Kong is actively seeking investment from Saudi Arabia to help rejuvenate its stock market, which has been facing multiple challenges. The city, known for its role as a global financial hub, is collaborating with the Saudi Tadawul Group to host a conference aimed at attracting fresh stock listings and fund inflows. This comes at a crucial time when Hong Kong needs to bolster its financial status.

The upcoming forum is not only an opportunity for Hong Kong but also for Saudi company officials who are keen on increasing their exposure to Asian markets. According to industry analysts, there is a significant political push fostering closer relations between China, including Hong Kong, and Gulf countries. Chinese businesses have expressed a keen interest in the Middle East, looking for new investment avenues to explore in the region.

This strategic conference highlights Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd.’s efforts to attract new investors as part of its broader strategy to diversify its investor base amid reduced interest from U.S. and European investors due to rising geopolitical tensions. 

Last month, the nation’s securities regulator announced initiatives to encourage more companies to launch initial public offerings (IPOs) in Hong Kong, amidst a challenging period marked by a slow Chinese economy and increasing tensions between Beijing and Washington. These factors have led to a decline in investor interest and a significant drop in funds raised through IPOs, reaching a low not seen since 2009.

Bonnie Chan, CEO of Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, remains optimistic about the resurgence of significant IPOs in the city, with 100 applications currently in the pipeline and more expected. The recent uptick in applications has provided a hopeful outlook for the market’s recovery.

On the other side, Saudi Arabia sees clear benefits in tightening relations with China. Under the kingdom’s Vision 2030 agenda, spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia aims to increase foreign ownership and enhance liquidity in its stock markets. The Saudi market has shown robust growth, with the market capitalization increasing by 11% over the past three years, contrasting sharply with Hong Kong’s 25% decline. The Riyadh stock exchange has consistently performed well, attracting significant foreign investment, particularly after its inclusion in MSCI Inc.’s emerging-markets equities benchmark in 2019.

Recently, Hong Kong introduced the CSOP Saudi Arabia ETF, the first such exchange-traded fund in Asia, allowing investors to tap into the Saudi market. Despite a strong start with backing from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, it has seen modest fund inflows. Efforts are underway to cross-list this ETF in Shanghai to enhance accessibility for Chinese investors, who are increasingly recognizing the investment potential in the Middle East.

Further strengthening the ties, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia have commenced negotiations on an “investment promotion and protection agreement.” There are also plans to launch a Riyadh-based ETF that tracks Hong Kong stock indexes. These initiatives underline the enduring partnership and mutual financial interests between the two regions.

Hong Kong’s Chief Executive John Lee has also expressed aspirations to attract a dual listing from Saudi Aramco, the world’s top oil producer, in Hong Kong. While this remains a future possibility, it signifies the city’s ambition to enhance its stature as a leading financial exchange.

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Asian Stocks Rise Slightly as Hopes for Federal Reserve Action Boost Sentiment

Asian Stocks Rise Slightly as Hopes for Federal Reserve Action Boost Sentiment

Asian Stocks Rise Slightly as Hopes for Federal Reserve Action Boost Sentiment

Asian stock markets achieved modest gains on Tuesday, driven by rising optimism that the Federal Reserve may initiate interest rate cuts within the year. This sentiment mirrored the uptick on Wall Street, sparked by soft U.S. employment figures which fueled speculation about potential changes in Fed policy. The optimism extended across major Asian markets, particularly in Japan, Korea, and Australia, contributing to the longest streak of gains in the region since February.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 surged by as much as 1.6% as Tokyo investors returned from a holiday, showing robust trading activity. However, markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai experienced fluctuations, alternating between losses and gains throughout the trading day. The Japanese yen weakened following comments from Japan’s top currency official, Masato Kanda, who indicated that there was no immediate need for government intervention in currency markets as long as they remained functional.

The global equity landscape has been positively influenced by adjustments in investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, especially after the recent U.S. jobs data suggested a less robust labor market. Chinese stocks, in particular, saw an uplift from assurances by China’s leaders to introduce new measures aimed at addressing the lingering issues in the housing sector.

Investment analysts highlight Asia’s attractive prospects in terms of growth, earnings potential, and valuation compared to the U.S. According to Ray Sharma-Ong of abrdn Plc, Asian markets have historically outperformed during periods of Fed monetary easing, thanks to better growth dynamics and attractive currency yields.

In the bond markets, there has been a cautious but noticeable shift towards expecting Fed easing this year, influenced by signs of cooling in the U.S. labor market. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries showed little change, mirroring a stable yield environment in Australia as well.

Statements from Federal Reserve officials have underscored this cautious approach. Thomas Barkin, President of the Fed Bank of Richmond, noted that sustained high interest rates are likely to further slow economic growth and help bring inflation down to the 2% target. His counterpart in New York, John Williams, mentioned that rate cuts are anticipated eventually, but the timing would hinge on a broader array of economic data.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady at a 12-year peak, indicating it would take time before inflation consistently met its target range. In China, positive sentiments were further buoyed as Shenzhen and other major cities relaxed home buying restrictions, part of broader efforts to rejuvenate the struggling real estate sector.

Strategists at HSBC Holdings, including Herald van der Linde, suggest that Chinese markets are poised to remain attractive in the short term due to an undervalued yen, high investment in Japanese funds, and ongoing improvements in China’s regulatory and economic environment. They predict that any Fed easing in late 2024 would likely benefit mainland China more than Japan, pointing to a continued shift in regional market dynamics.

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Asian Stocks Rise Post-Fed Decision; Yen Declines Resume

Asian Stocks Rise Post-Fed Decision; Yen Declines Resume

Asian Stocks Rise Post-Fed Decision; Yen Declines Resume

Most Asian stocks rose following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which tempered expectations for further interest-rate hikes. Meanwhile, the yen weakened after briefly surging, indicating possible intervention.

In market movements, equity indexes in Australia and Hong Kong saw gains, while Japanese stocks remained stable. U.S. stock futures experienced a rally, contrasting with a dip in European contracts. Market focus now shifts to forthcoming economic indicators, including euro-area manufacturing data and Apple Inc.’s earnings report.

The yen’s decline by as much as 1.1% against the dollar, following a sharp rise in New York, suggests doubts about Japan’s ability to counter further weakening despite its significant interest-rate gap with the U.S. Japan’s chief currency officer, Masato Kanda, refrained from commenting on potential market interventions.

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. Powell indicated that a rate hike is unlikely without clear signs that current policies are insufficient to achieve a 2% inflation target. This stance suggests a cautious approach towards monetary policy, aimed at managing persistent inflation pressures.

On the currency front, the Bloomberg dollar index fell for a second consecutive day, influenced by lower U.S. yields post-Fed announcement. The euro remained steady after a slight increase the previous day.

Corporate earnings also highlighted market dynamics. ArcelorMittal SA reported better-than-expected results, and Apple’s upcoming earnings will provide insights into its performance amid a slowdown in China.

John Woods of Lombard Odier commented on the resilience seen in earnings, emphasizing the predominance of U.S. narratives in the current market environment.

Additional economic insights are expected with the release of April’s non-farm payroll data, with forecasts suggesting a stable unemployment rate of 3.8%. This could indicate persistent robust hiring trends, potentially challenging the Fed’s moderation efforts.

In commodities, oil prices bounced back from prior losses driven by concerns over demand and high U.S. crude inventories. Gold prices increased, supported by the Fed’s indication of a potential shift towards reducing borrowing costs once confident in the easing of inflation.

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Japan Drives Asian Stocks Up, China PMI Steady

Japan Drives Asian Stocks Up, China PMI Steady

Asian stock markets saw gains on Tuesday, with Japan taking the lead, as recent Chinese economic data indicated sustained recovery in the world’s second-largest economy. Japanese and Hong Kong indices climbed, while Chinese mainland shares showed mixed responses after reports of continued growth in factory activities. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures remained stable following a robust earnings kickoff on Wall Street, despite expectations of sustained high interest rates by the Federal Reserve.

In Japan, equities rose sharply after a national holiday, buoyed by a strong rebound in the yen from a 34-year low against the dollar, amid rumors of government intervention to stabilize the currency. The yen experienced significant volatility, swinging over 2% after a previous drop to 160.17 per dollar, marking the broadest range since late 2022. During Asian trading hours, the yen’s gains moderated slightly as the U.S. dollar strengthened.

Analysts note a cautious optimism surrounding the Japanese currency, as fears of its continued depreciation seem to have eased. Elsewhere in Asia, there’s speculation that China might consider a drastic step to boost its sluggish economy, such as a substantial devaluation of the yuan. Chinese markets are set to close later in the week for the Labor Day holidays.

On the corporate front, Samsung Electronics saw a notable increase in earnings, driven by profits in its semiconductor unit for the first time since 2022, highlighting the surge in global AI development. Shares of Sumitomo Corp. also soared following reports that Elliott Management Corp. had acquired a significant stake in the company. Meanwhile, HSBC announced a decline in its first-quarter pretax profit and the upcoming retirement of its CEO, Noel Quinn, sparking a search for his successor.

In the U.S., early earnings reports are surpassing expectations with a significant majority of companies outperforming initial estimates. This has led to an upward revision in expected earnings growth, boosting investor sentiment. U.S. Treasury yields stabilized after a slight drop, and bond yields in Australia and New Zealand fell.

Market analysts anticipate continued volatility in U.S. markets but remain optimistic, particularly for AI-driven sectors. They recommend a balanced investment approach, emphasizing the potential in U.S. equities, especially technology stocks.

In commodities, oil prices steadied after a notable drop, as peace talks in the Middle East lowered risk premiums. Gold is on track to rise for the third consecutive month, with investors closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

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Apple’s Market Lead in China Slips as Q1 Shipments Drop 6.6%

Apple’s Market Lead in China Slips as Q1 Shipments Drop 6.6%

Apple has been dethroned as the leading smartphone seller in China during the first quarter of 2024, according to preliminary data released by research firm IDC on Thursday. The company saw its smartphone shipments decline by 6.6% compared to the same period last year, amidst fierce competition that has reshaped the market dynamics.

In a closely contested race for market dominance, both Honor and Huawei have now edged out Apple. Honor experienced a rise in market share to 17.1%, while Huawei closely followed with a 17% share. Apple’s market share, in contrast, has slipped to 15.6%. IDC identifies a statistical tie in market share when the difference between companies is 0.1% or less, underscoring just how tight the competition has become.

This shift comes despite Apple’s attempts to regain traction through price promotions during the quarter. Arthur Guo, a senior research analyst at IDC China, noted in the report that these efforts were insufficient to counter the robust challenge posed by Android-based competitors.

Adding to Apple’s challenges, the overall smartphone market in China is on the rise, with total shipments increasing by 6.5% to reach 69.3 million units, as reported by IDC. This growth suggests a recovering market where competition is becoming increasingly stiff.

Further emphasizing the scale of Apple’s current predicament, another research firm, Counterpoint, revealed that Apple’s smartphone shipments in China plummeted by 19% in the first quarter. This marks the company’s poorest performance since 2020, indicating significant hurdles in one of its key markets.

The increasing market share of rivals like Honor and Huawei is indicative of a broader trend where Chinese consumers are responding more favorably to domestic brands, which have been aggressively innovating and marketing their products. As these brands continue to capitalize on national sentiment and technological advancements, Apple faces the dual challenge of adjusting its strategy to regain lost ground and redefining its value proposition to appeal to Chinese consumers amidst a rapidly evolving smartphone landscape.

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UBS Upgrades Chinese Stocks to Overweight

UBS Upgrades Chinese Stocks to Overweight

UBS Group AG has upgraded its rating for a prominent Chinese stock index to overweight, indicating a renewed confidence in the market’s recovery prospects. This upgrade, described as a rare and optimistic move in 2024, reflects UBS’s positive stance on the financial health and earnings potential of China’s largest stocks.

In a detailed analysis released on Tuesday, UBS strategists, including Sunil Tirumalai, highlighted the robust earnings and solid fundamentals of these top companies. They pointed to a noticeable increase in consumer spending and a potential shift in household savings towards market investments as key drivers of this optimism.

The timing of UBS’s bullish outlook on the MSCI China Index coincides with the market showing signs of recovery from a prolonged downturn. The index, along with corporate performance, has begun to improve, buoyed by economic upturns and a tentative easing of corporate struggles. Despite this, the shadow of geopolitical strife and regulatory uncertainties continues to temper investor enthusiasm, preventing a full-scale commitment to this asset class.

Simultaneously, UBS has adjusted its views on other Asian markets, upgrading Hong Kong stocks to overweight while downgrading Taiwan and South Korea’s tech-centric markets to neutral. This shift reflects a broader strategy of divesting from highly valued tech stocks amid expectations of sustained high interest rates by the Federal Reserve.

Year-to-date, the MSCI China Index has risen over 13% from its January low, with similar gains seen in the Hang Seng Index. This growth comes after a cautious period among brokerages who were hesitant to amend their market forecasts following a volatile market phase post-2022’s aggressive rally.

Historically, UBS had moved Chinese stocks to a neutral stance in late 2023, mirroring actions by Morgan Stanley, as it awaited economic stabilization and policy interventions. Recent data, however, shows a rebound in the 12-month forward earnings estimate for the MSCI China Index by 1.7%, the first rise since a dip at 2022’s end.

This positive trend in Chinese equities is further supported by national policies aimed at stabilizing the market and enhancing corporate governance, as outlined in China’s recent “Nine-Point Guideline.” These initiatives are expected to foster better dividend practices and higher quality stock offerings.

Nonetheless, UBS warns that the looming US elections could escalate geopolitical tensions, posing a significant risk to the ongoing recovery in Chinese stocks. This backdrop of uncertainty makes the current market landscape both promising and precarious as investors navigate these complex dynamics.

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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China’s February New Bank Loans Decrease Beyond Expectations, Hitting Record Low Lending Growth

China’s February New Bank Loans Decrease Beyond Expectations, Hitting Record Low Lending Growth

In China, new bank lending in February experienced a sharper decline than anticipated from a record high in January, as the central bank continues efforts to stimulate the country’s sluggish economic growth and counter deflationary trends.

According to Reuters’ calculations based on People’s Bank of China data, Chinese banks issued 1.45 trillion yuan ($201.5 billion) in new yuan loans in February, a significant drop from January and below the expectations of analysts. Year-over-year growth of outstanding yuan loans slowed to a record low of 10.1%, compared to 10.4% in January, and fell short of the projected 10.2%.

The decrease in February’s lending was expected as Chinese banks typically issue more loans at the beginning of the year to attract high-quality customers and gain market share. Additionally, the Lunar New Year holiday, which occurred in February this year as opposed to late January in 2023, likely impacted lending activity.

Analysts had forecasted new yuan loans for February to decrease to 1.50 trillion yuan, down from 4.92 trillion yuan in the previous month and against 1.81 trillion yuan a year earlier.

ING analysts noted that aggregate financing and new loans were weaker than expected due to limited high-quality borrowing demand, indicating a modest immediate impact from the February cut in the required reserve ratio (RRR). Despite signals of further RRR cuts from the PBOC, a lack of high-quality borrowing demand might reduce the effectiveness of these measures in stimulating the economy.

In the first two months of 2024, Chinese banks made 6.37 trillion yuan in new yuan loans, according to central bank data. Household loans, mostly mortgages, contracted by 590.7 billion yuan in February, after an increase of 980.1 billion yuan in January. Corporate loans also decreased to 1.57 trillion yuan from 3.86 trillion yuan.

China’s economic growth target for 2024 is around 5%, a goal many analysts consider challenging without significant additional stimulus. Both consumer and corporate confidence have remained weak since a post-pandemic upsurge faded early in 2023.

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng stated there is still room for RRR cuts, following a substantial 50-basis point reduction effective from February 5. The central bank also announced a major cut in a key mortgage reference rate last month to support the property market and the overall economy.

Broad M2 money supply grew by 8.7% year-over-year, slightly below the 8.8% forecast but consistent with the pace in January.

Total social financing (TSF) growth, a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, decelerated to 9.0% in February from a year earlier, down from 9.5% in January. With China setting the 2024 quota for local government special bond issuance at 3.9 trillion yuan and planning to issue 1 trillion yuan in special ultra-long-term treasury bonds, increased fiscal support is expected to boost government borrowing. However, weak private sector credit demand continues to pose significant challenges.

TSF, which includes various forms of financing beyond conventional bank lending, fell to 1.56 trillion yuan in February from 6.5 trillion yuan in January, falling short of the expected 2.22 trillion yuan.

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Major Currency Pairs Remain Stable Before Crucial US Economic Data Release

Major Currency Pairs Remain Stable Before Crucial US Economic Data Release

Throughout the latter half of the week, major currency pairs have been exhibiting fluctuations within narrow margins. Following a slight downturn on Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) Index has maintained a subdued profile, hovering just below the 103.00 mark in Thursday’s European morning. Market participants are keenly awaiting the release of the US producer inflation and retail sales data for February, which are poised to offer fresh directional impetus.

Concurrently, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield has seen a resurgence, crossing back over the 4.2% threshold for the first time in more than a week. As of early Thursday, the yield steadies at around 4.2%, while US stock index futures exhibit a mixed performance, reflecting the volatility observed in Wednesday’s market.

This week, the US Dollar’s performance has varied across different major currencies. Notably, the Dollar recorded its strongest performance against the Japanese Yen. A recent report from Reuters highlighted that Japan’s largest industrial union, UA Zensen, announced record-high pay increases by 231 firms since 2013. In response, the USD/JPY pair has been oscillating within a tight range below the 148.00 level, closing almost unchanged on Wednesday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) experienced a modest upswing on Wednesday, breaking a two-day losing streak and remaining consolidated just above 0.6600 early Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) gained some ground and ended Wednesday on a positive note. However, the pair began to retreat slightly after encountering resistance near 1.0950. In the absence of significant data releases from the Eurozone, the market’s focus will likely shift to any statements from European Central Bank (ECB) officials.

The British Pound (GBP/USD) is experiencing difficulty in establishing a clear direction, continuing its lateral movement around the 1.2800 mark in Thursday’s European trading session.

In the commodities sector, gold managed to recoup most of its losses from Tuesday during Wednesday’s session. However, it struggled to gain further upward momentum in the face of increasing US yields. At last observation, Gold (XAU/USD) was trading marginally lower, just below $2,170.

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Australian Dollar Struggles as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of US PPI Release

Australian Dollar Gains Support from Rising ASX 200 Despite Stronger US Dollar

Australian Dollar Gains Support from Rising ASX 200 Despite Stronger US Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is showing signs of consolidation, hinting at a potential recovery from its recent losses as of Wednesday. This comes amidst mixed market signals, including a positive performance from the S&P/ASX 200 Index and contrasting pressures from lower commodity prices.

For the second consecutive day, the S&P/ASX 200 Index has been on the rise, mirroring the overnight gains observed on Wall Street. This upward trend in the Australian stock market is a reflection of investor confidence and a generally positive economic outlook, which typically supports the strength of the national currency. However, the Australian Dollar faces countervailing pressures due to a decline in commodity prices. Australia, being a major exporter of natural resources, is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in these markets. Lower commodity prices can have a dampening effect on the AUD, as they may reduce the country’s trade revenue and economic prospects.

The current investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic, spurred by the release of encouraging Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States (US). This optimism is, however, tempered by the recent performance of the AUD against the US Dollar (USD). On Tuesday, the AUD suffered losses against the USD, driven largely by a stronger-than-expected US CPI report. The report has diminished the likelihood of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstering the Greenback. This strengthened USD poses potential challenges for the AUD/USD currency pair, as a robust US Dollar often means weaker performance for other major currencies.

Traders and investors are now likely to redirect their focus towards upcoming economic indicators from the US, particularly the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data, which are scheduled for release on Thursday. These data points are significant as they provide insights into the health of the US economy. The Core PPI offers a measure of the average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding food and energy, which are more volatile. Retail Sales data, on the other hand, is a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a substantial portion of overall economic activity in the US.

The outcomes of these reports could have significant implications for the Fed’s monetary policy decisions, and consequently, influence the AUD/USD exchange rate dynamics. As investors and market analysts anticipate these releases, there is an air of cautious observation in the market, with stakeholders keen to understand how these developments will shape the near-term trajectory of the Australian Dollar in relation to the US Dollar and the broader global economy.

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XRP Poised for Weekly Drop as Investors Pocket $370 Million in Profits

XRP Poised for Weekly Drop as Investors Pocket $370 Million in Profits

The price of XRP, a popular altcoin, experienced a downturn, reaching $0.62 on Friday. Despite this drop, it managed to stay above the crucial $0.60 mark, a psychologically significant level for traders and investors. This recent price movement has been primarily attributed to increased profit-taking activities among XRP holders. Heading towards the week’s close, XRP seems poised to end with a slight loss, marking a mild correction following its recent price surge. This shift in market behavior comes just ahead of a significant event – the anticipated March 22 deadline in the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit, a key factor influencing the altcoin’s market dynamics.

Since the beginning of March 2024, XRP holders have reportedly cashed out profits amounting to around $370 million. This substantial withdrawal of profits is one of the primary drivers behind the recent price adjustments. On-chain data provided by Santiment has highlighted consistent profit-taking by XRP holders throughout the month, especially notable as the altcoin reached its monthly peak of $0.6685 on Tuesday.

Further analysis reveals an uptick in on-chain activity for XRP. Notable metrics showing this increase include a rise in Active Addresses and a surge in large transactions, specifically those valued at $100,000 or higher. Both these indicators have witnessed significant growth over the past week. Generally, such an increase in active addresses and high-value transactions can signal either bullish or bearish trends for an asset’s price. However, in the context of XRP, the spike in transactions following its recent price rally suggests that larger investors or ‘whales’ may be looking to capitalize on the higher rates to sell off their holdings and secure profits.

This pattern of whale behavior, coupled with the overarching climate of profit-taking among regular holders, paints a picture of a market in a state of flux. As XRP navigates through these changes, market watchers are closely monitoring the asset’s performance, particularly with the looming legal deadline in the SEC lawsuit which could have further implications for its price and investor sentiment.

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Currency Market Stabilizes Ahead of Powell Speech, Bitcoin Gains Momentum

Currency Market Stabilizes Ahead of Powell Speech, Bitcoin Gains Momentum

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar remained stable as traders awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony and upcoming key events, including a European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and U.S. jobs data.

Bitcoin showed renewed momentum in the cryptocurrency market, though it did not surpass its recent record high achieved in a tumultuous overnight session.

The dollar’s movement was restricted, reflecting a slight decline after data revealed a minor slowdown in U.S. services industry growth last month. The upcoming February U.S. jobs report, due on Friday, is anticipated to significantly influence market expectations regarding interest rates, especially if employment figures exceed forecasts.

Powell’s testimony before Congress, focusing on the state of the U.S. economy, is expected to confirm the Fed’s intention to analyze more data before considering any rate cuts. The Fed chief might also discuss January’s strong core inflation, which analysts believe won’t alter the market’s expectation of a rate cut starting in June.

Currently, the market shows about a 60% likelihood of a June rate cut, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. The dollar index stood around 103.76, demonstrating its strength against six major currencies.

The euro remained stable at $1.0855, with the market anticipating the ECB’s rate decision. The bank is expected to maintain rates at 4% and provide updates on economic projections and hints about potential rate cuts.

Sterling was steady at $1.27050 ahead of the British budget announcement. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar recovered slightly, dismissing GDP data that showed only 0.2% growth in the fourth quarter and strengthened the case for rate cuts. It was last up 0.24% at $0.65195.

The New Zealand dollar also rose, gaining 0.16% to $0.60960, despite reaching a three-week low earlier. Conversely, the dollar fell 0.12% against the yen, settling at 149.86.

Attention is also focused on Bitcoin, which recently soared to a new high before sharply retreating. It was last up 4.11% at $65,921, fueled by investments in U.S. spot exchange-traded crypto products and anticipation of global interest rate reductions.

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Stable Near High, Amid Fed Rate-Cut Speculation and Market Softness

Gold Price Stable Near High, Amid Fed Rate-Cut Speculation and Market Softness

During the early hours of Tuesday’s European trading session, the Gold price, measured in XAU/USD, maintained a steady range, reflecting a period of consolidation after its recent significant surge to a three-month high near the $2,120 mark, achieved the previous day. This stability in Gold’s price comes as traders display caution, choosing to wait for clearer indications regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future interest rate decisions before committing to new market positions. Consequently, all eyes are set on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s two-day congressional testimony, which is slated to begin on Wednesday.

The week also brings a host of critical U.S. economic data releases coinciding with the start of a new month. Among these, the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due for release on Friday, stands out as a key determinant of the U.S. Dollar’s (USD) trajectory and, by extension, its influence on the precious metal’s dynamics. The anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s possible rate cuts starting in June has somewhat subdued USD bullish sentiment, indirectly bolstering support for the non-yielding Gold.

Adding to the mix is the slight weakening in global risk appetite, fueled by ongoing geopolitical tensions and growing concerns over an economic slowdown in China. These factors are contributing to the appeal of Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, under the XAU/USD symbol. Market participants are now keenly awaiting the U.S. ISM Services PMI data, which could offer short-term trading opportunities in the gold market.

Despite these varied influences, the fundamental landscape indicates a predominantly upward trajectory for Gold prices. The prevailing economic and geopolitical conditions suggest that any downward corrections in Gold’s price are likely to be short-lived and viewed as buying opportunities by investors. This perspective reinforces the notion that Gold remains a resilient and attractive investment amidst the current global economic uncertainties.

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Japanese Yen Dips Versus USD as BoJ Uncertainty Lingers; Tokyo CPI in Focus Tuesday

Japanese Yen Dips Versus USD as BoJ Uncertainty Lingers; Tokyo CPI in Focus Tuesday

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is experiencing renewed pressure after a slight recovery from its year-to-date low on Friday, as it enters the European trading session with a weaker stance against the US Dollar (USD). This development comes in the wake of remarks from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who emphasized on Friday that it was premature to declare a win over inflation concerns. This cautionary stance from the BoJ, coupled with signs of a technical recession in Japan, indicates a potential delay in the central bank’s shift towards tighter monetary policies. Such a delay is contributing to the diminishing strength of the JPY.

Amid these circumstances, there are reports suggesting that the Japanese government is contemplating officially declaring an end to the long-standing deflationary period. Market participants are also closely watching the potential impact of another significant wage increase in Japan. This increase could potentially initiate a wage-price spiral, compelling the BoJ to reconsider and possibly retract its current ultra-accommodative monetary policy. Despite these factors, a subdued tone in the equity markets is expected to moderate the losses for the JPY and restrain any significant appreciation of the USD/JPY pair, especially given the current muted demand for the USD.

Investors and traders are exhibiting caution, opting to refrain from making bold directional bets until the release of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday. This report is anticipated to provide valuable insights into Japan’s inflationary trends and could influence the monetary policy outlook of the BoJ. In addition to the Tokyo CPI, the global financial market is also bracing for a series of pivotal events later in the week. These include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday, as well as crucial US economic data releases at the beginning of the new month. Of particular interest will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, a key indicator of the US labor market’s health.

The combination of these upcoming events and data releases will likely offer fresh perspectives on the Federal Reserve’s trajectory regarding interest rate adjustments. Such insights are expected to significantly impact the dynamics of the USD/JPY currency pair, as investors weigh the implications of monetary policy shifts in both the US and Japan.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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