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EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens

EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens; FOMC Minutes in Spotlight

The EUR/USD pair slid to around 1.1705 during Wednesday’s Asian session, weighed down by renewed strength in the US Dollar. The Euro came under pressure following fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump, which unsettled global markets and added to investor caution. 

Trump reignited global trade concerns by proposing a 50% tariff on copper imports and hinted at possible duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. While he mentioned that negotiations with both the European Union and China are progressing well, he also warned that a tariff notice to the EU could be issued within days. This uncertainty has dented risk sentiment, putting the Euro under additional stress. 

Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, due later today. Market participants are hoping for more clarity on the Fed’s rate path, especially amid growing expectations of monetary easing. 

At its June meeting, the Fed held interest rates steady, maintaining the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%—a level unchanged since December. However, markets are now pricing in a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end, potentially beginning as early as October. 

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Australian Dollar Gains as Risk Sentiment Improves, RBA Decision in Focus

Australian Dollar Rises Amid Risk-On Sentiment, Focus Shifts to RBA Rate Decision

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its third straight session of gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following US President Donald Trump’s move to postpone the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. A weaker USD following disappointing US retail sales data has further supported the AUD/USD pair, reigniting speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates later this year despite persistent inflation concerns.

Yet, the AUD’s gains could be capped before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy announcement on Tuesday, as mounting speculation of a cut in interest rates deters sentiment. The RBA is widely expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10%, marking the first rate reduction in four years.

US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Lower Treasury Yields

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down for the third consecutive session, bogged down by weaker US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the DXY is trading around 106.70, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields at 4.26% and 4.47%, respectively.

Statistics released by the US Census Bureau on Friday indicated that US Retail Sales decreased 0.9% in January, a reversal from a revised 0.7% rise in December (earlier reported as 0.4%). The decrease was deeper than the market expectation of a 0.1% decline.

Conversely, Core PPI inflation in the US increased to 3.6% YoY in January, above expectations of 3.3%, though marginally less than the revised 3.7% (initially published as 3.5%). This has consolidated expectations that the Fed will push rate cuts until the second part of the year.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% YoY in January, beating expectations of 2.9%, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) went up to 3.3% from 3.2%, beating expectations of 3.1%. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose 0.5% in January compared to 0.4% in December, with core CPI rising to 0.4% from 0.2% in the same period.

Fed Officials Signal a Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts

In his semi-annual report to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that policymakers “do not need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates, citing a strong labor market and robust economic growth. Powell also warned that Trump’s tariff policies could exert upward pressure on inflation, making it harder for the central bank to lower rates.

A Reuters poll of economists now indicates the Fed will wait until next quarter to cut rates, citing ongoing inflationary concerns. Although previously, some analysts anticipated a March rate cut; the majority now sees at least one rate cut by June, but opinions remain divided.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack echoed this sentiment, saying that maintaining rates at current levels for a long time is probably the right thing to do. Hammack added that a patient strategy will enable the Fed to evaluate economic conditions before altering policy.

Australian Dollar Targets Upper Range Near 0.6400

The AUD/USD currency pair quotes at 0.6360 on Monday, with an uptrend in a rising channel formation. This is indicative of a bullish market inclination, which is also complemented by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 50.

On the upside, the pair could test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6380, followed by the psychological level of 0.6400.

Major levels of support are the nine-day EMA at 0.6310, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6294. A fall below these levels may erode short-term momentum, possibly pulling the pair down to the lower boundary of the rising channel at 0.6270.

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Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Jobless Claims

Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Holds Gains Ahead of Jobless Claims

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as trade balance data came in below average than expected. Furthermore, risk-off sentiment, fueled by rising US-China trade tensions, weighs on the AUD/USD.

In December, Australia’s trade surplus fell to $5,085 million, falling short of the 7,000 million anticipated and down from $6,792 million the previous year. While exports increased by 1.1% month on month, this was a decrease from November’s 4.2% increase, while imports increased by 5.9% month on month, much more than the previous 1.4% gain.

US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Australian Dollar

Investors are still focused on the current trade stagnation between the United States and China, Australia’s top trading partner. China replied to the United States’ new 10% tax, which went into force on Tuesday, causing global market concern. Regarding the situation, President Trump announced on Monday that he intends to engage with China within the next 24 hours. However, he cautioned that failure to achieve an agreement might result in “very, very substantial” tariffs.

Meanwhile, China’s Commerce Ministry imposed a 15% tax on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, as well as an additional 10% levy on crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos. As a countermeasure, China has implemented export limits on important minerals such as tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, and molybdenum, citing national security concerns.

Amid escalating trade tensions, the Financial Times writes that Chinese firms are quickening preparations to relocate production overseas, mainly to the Middle East, in order to reduce tariff impacts. Some exporters are also considering passing on prices to US consumers or expanding into new markets.

US Dollar Holds Firm Amid Mixed Economic Data

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, remains stable near 107.50, putting further downward pressure on the AUD/USD. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a weaker-than-expected US Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January, below the market forecast of 54.3.

Investors now focus on Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a key economic indicator that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.

The dollar fell on Wednesday, following a poor US Services PMI report. The ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, missing the market forecast of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are anticipating Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Pulls Back From 0.6300, Eyes Key Support

The AUD/USD pair hovers near 0.6280 on Thursday, retreating from the 0.6300 level. However, sustained trading above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) suggests short-term bullish momentum remains intact. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also holding above 50, reinforcing the bullish bias.

On the upside, the pair might target 0.6330, its seven-week high from January 24.

Immediate support comes from the nine-day EMA near 0.6254, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6249.

A breach below these levels might weaken the bullish structure, potentially sending the pair below 0.6087, its lowest level since April 2020, which was recorded on February 3.

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Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

The Australian Dollar (AUD) falls for the seventh consecutive day as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens following President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Market volatility remains high as investors monitor the continuing US-China trade talks. Trump signaled he may speak with Chinese officials within the next 24 hours, warning that if a deal isn’t reached, tariffs on China will be “very, very substantial.”

Trump also announced a 30-day tariff relief for Mexico and Canada after their nations agreed to send 10,000 troops to the US border to battle drug trafficking. This move follows the introduction of 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods just two days before.

Chinese Exporters Seek Alternatives

According to the Financial Times, Chinese manufacturers are speeding up plans to transfer production offshore in reaction to US tariffs. Some companies are considering relocating to regions such as the Middle East, while others are looking into passing costs on to US customers or entering new markets.

RBA Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on AUD

The AUD faces additional pressure amid growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut rates in February. The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since November 2023, stressing that inflation must return to its 2%-3% target range before easing policy.

Analysts at Westpac continue to forecast 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, with the market pricing in a more conservative outlook. ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and National Australia Bank (NAB) all anticipate a 25-basis-point (bps) cut in February, with NAB recently revising its forecast forward from May.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Developments

The US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilizes around 108.70 after erasing gains from the previous session. Recent US economic data support the greenback, with ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, exceeding expectations of 49.8.

Inflation indicators remain in focus as the Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 0.3% MoM in December, up from 0.1% in November. Annual PCE inflation increased to 2.6%, while core PCE held steady at 2.8% YoY for the third straight month.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, highlighted that further policy adjustments would be required if there was clear evidence of inflation advance or labor market weakness. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently argued for new uniform taxes on US imports, beginning at 2.5% and progressively increasing—a departure from his previous stance that tariffs cause inflation.

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

AUD/USD trades around 0.6210 on Tuesday, remaining within a descending channel pattern on the daily chart, signaling a bearish bias. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recovering toward the 50 level, suggesting weakening downside momentum. A breakout above the channel, combined with an RSI move above 50, could indicate a shift toward a bullish outlook.

On the downside, the pair may test the descending channel’s lower boundary near 0.6150. A break below this level could drive AUD/USD toward 0.6087, its lowest point since April 2020.

AUD/USD is currently testing its initial resistance, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6225, which aligns with the channel’s upper limit. A decisive move over this level could fuel bullish optimism.

 

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Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum

Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum; USD/JPY Struggles Below 154.50

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen in early European trading on Thursday, pushing USD/JPY further below 154.50 and closer to its one-month low from earlier this week. Market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again by year-end continue to support the JPY. Additionally, a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields, narrowing the US-Japan yield differential, has further boosted demand for the lower-yielding Yen.

However, concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may limit aggressive JPY buying. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish pause on Wednesday has bolstered the US Dollar (USD), which could provide some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders are now looking ahead to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which may increase market volatility and drive further demand for the safe-haven Yen. Additionally, the Advance US Q4 GDP report could introduce short-term trading opportunities.

JPY Gains on Hawkish BoJ Sentiment Amid Market Uncertainty

  • Minutes from the BoJ’s December meeting, released Wednesday, indicated discussions on using neutral interest rate estimates to guide future rate hikes.
  • Former BoJ board member Makoto Sakurai stated on Tuesday that steady rate increases remain feasible due to rising wages, sustained inflation, and strong economic growth.
  • The Federal Reserve, as expected, held rates steady after its two-day meeting and signaled no immediate plans for rate cuts.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a patient stance, stating there is no urgency to adjust policy and reaffirming that rates will stay elevated amid concerns over Trump’s trade policies, which could fuel inflation.
  • The 10-year US Treasury yield has struggled to sustain gains post-FOMC due to uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s economic policies.
  • Reports from Asahi newspaper indicate that Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is finalizing plans for a February 7 meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington.
  • The ECB’s policy decision later today is expected to introduce further volatility, alongside the Advance US Q4 GDP print.

USD/JPY at Risk of Retesting Monthly Lows Near 153.70

The USD/JPY pair faced renewed selling pressure near the 156.00 level, breaking below the key 155.00 psychological mark, confirming a multi-month ascending channel breakdown. Momentum indicators on the daily chart suggest continued downside movement, making a retest of the 153.70 region—a multi-week low touched on Monday—a strong possibility.

Key resistance levels for a rebound:

  • 155.00 round figure
  • 155.35-155.40 region
  • 156.00 psychological level

Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling pressure near these levels. A sustained break above 156.25 could trigger short-covering, potentially lifting USD/JPY toward 156.70-156.75, with further resistance at 157.00 and 157.60.

For now, the bias remains bearish, with further losses expected if the pair stays below 154.00. Traders will closely watch US data and global central bank policy updates for the next directional move.

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Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold price (XAU/USD) faces selling pressure at the beginning of the week, pulling back from its highest level since late October, near the $2,786 mark touched on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) has staged a modest recovery following its worst weekly performance since November 2023, which has weighed on the precious metal. However, the broader market dynamics remain supportive of a bullish outlook, suggesting potential dip-buying opportunities at lower price levels.

Market Sentiment Dampened by Trade Tensions and Fed Speculation

Risk sentiment has deteriorated due to US President Donald Trump’s recent decision to impose tariffs on all imports from Colombia, reigniting fears of a trade war. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates twice by year-end, combined with a flight to safe-haven assets, have triggered a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields. This decline could limit aggressive gains in the USD, potentially cushioning the downside for gold, a non-yielding asset.

Gold Under Pressure from USD Recovery, but Downside Remains Limited

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of currencies, rose nearly 0.25% on Monday, driven by revived concerns over US trade policies. President Trump ordered 25% emergency tariffs on all Colombian imports following the country’s refusal to accept deported migrants from the US, with a threat to raise tariffs to 50% next week. Moreover, reports suggest that Trump’s advisors are considering imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1.

In a recent update, the White House confirmed that Colombia has agreed to Trump’s demands, including the unrestricted acceptance of deported individuals. Meanwhile, Trump has reiterated his call for immediate interest rate cuts, fueling speculation of further easing by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The resulting decline in US Treasury yields may act as a headwind for the USD, potentially limiting the extent of gold’s pullback.

Traders Eye Economic Data for Further Clues

Market participants will turn their focus to key US economic data, including Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, for fresh impetus during the US trading session.

Gold Price Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

Gold’s recent decline may attract dip-buying near the $2,736 support zone, as the technical setup remains bullish. Any further slide below the $2,750-2,748 range could find solid support near $2,736, with additional key levels at $2,725-2,720. A break below $2,720 could trigger technical selling, pushing prices toward the $2,665-2,662 zone.

On the upside, a sustained move above the $2,772-2,773 resistance could open the door for a retest of the recent peak near $2,786. Further buying momentum beyond the $2,800 psychological level could signal a renewed bullish phase, extending the upward trend

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Gold Price Holds Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold Price Remains Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold price (XAU/USD) came under selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday, retreating from the multi-month high of $2,763–$2,764 touched the previous day. This decline halts a three-day winning streak. The US Dollar (USD) gained some strength from its recovery off a monthly low, supported by a rebound in US Treasury bond yields, and the upbeat sentiment in equity markets further dampened demand for the safe-haven metal.

Signs of easing inflation in the US have fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates twice this year, creating a potential headwind for US bond yields and the USD. However, ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which could increase trade tensions and market volatility, may help limit the downside for gold prices. Traders may remain cautious and wait for sustained selling pressure to confirm that the one-month uptrend has ended.

Risk-On Mood and Modest USD Rebound Cap Gold Gains

The USD steadied above its recent lows amid recovering Treasury yields, adding pressure to gold prices. In addition, easing geopolitical tensions and a lack of concrete details regarding Trump’s tariff policies have maintained a risk-on sentiment, further undermining gold’s appeal.

While Trump’s proposed tariff policies are considered inflationary, which could prompt the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, markets are still pricing in at least two Fed rate cuts this year. This outlook may limit the upside for US bond yields and the USD, potentially supporting gold in the near term.

Investors are eyeing Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum for more clarity on tariffs, alongside the release of US Weekly Jobless Claims, which could influence XAU/USD prices. Upcoming central bank rate decisions, including the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday and next week’s announcements from the Fed and the European Central Bank, could inject volatility into the market and impact gold prices.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Key Support Levels:

  • Immediate support is seen near the $2,725–$2,720 zone, a former resistance-turned-support level.
  • Further declines could target the $2,700 mark, with a decisive break paving the way for a move toward the $2,665–$2,662 region.
  • The $2,627–$2,622 confluence, which includes the 100-day EMA and a short-term ascending trendline, will act as a critical pivot point for short-term traders.

Key Resistance Levels:

  • The recent high near $2,763–$2,764 offers the first resistance level.
  • A break above this zone could see gold prices challenge the all-time high around $2,790, reached in October.
  • The $2,800 mark is the next significant resistance, and a break above it would signal a continuation of the well-established uptrend over the past month.

Outlook:

Gold prices remain influenced by risk sentiment, central bank policy expectations, and USD movements. While near-term bearish factors may limit gains, uncertainty around US tariff policies and inflation trends could provide support, making any dips near key technical levels potential opportunities for dip-buying. Traders will remain focused on upcoming economic data and central bank decisions for further direction.

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WTI Inches Higher to $70.50 Amid US Oil Stock Decline

WTI Inches Higher to $70.50 Amid US Oil Stock Decline

WTI Inches Higher to $70.50 Amid US Oil Stock Decline

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices continue to rise for the second consecutive day, trading around $70.40 per barrel during Friday’s Asian session. The upward momentum in oil prices is primarily driven by an unexpected drop in US crude oil inventories.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude oil stocks fell by 2.192 million barrels for the week ending October 11, defying market expectations of a 2.3 million barrel increase. This contrasts with the previous week’s significant build of 5.81 million barrels, adding bullish sentiment to the oil market.

In addition to the inventory drawdown, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are supporting oil prices. Israel’s military confirmed the death of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, during an operation in southern Gaza. This development has heightened concerns of escalating conflict in the region, which could disrupt global oil supply chains.

However, the potential upside for WTI prices may be capped by several factors. The EIA also reported that US crude oil production hit a record high of 13.5 million barrels per day last week, adding supply-side pressure. Furthermore, Libya’s oil production has resumed, and OPEC+ plans to gradually unwind production cuts by 2025, according to Reuters.

Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report on Tuesday forecasting a significant oil surplus in 2024. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 860,000 barrels per day next year, but this represents a downward revision of 40,000 barrels per day from earlier forecasts. The IEA attributed this adjustment to slower economic growth in China and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, which are starting to reshape oil demand in the world’s largest oil importer.

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Japan Stocks Rise as Nikkei 225 Climbs 2.01% at Close

Japan Stocks Climb as Nikkei 225 Gains 2.01% at Close

Japan Stocks Climb as Nikkei 225 Gains 2.01% at Close

Japanese stocks ended higher on Thursday, led by strong performances in the Mining, Chemical, Petroleum & Plastic, and Real Estate sectors. The Nikkei 225 index surged by 2.01%, marking a strong session.

Top performers of the day included M3 Inc. (TYO:2413), which saw an impressive 9.93% rise, adding 145.00 points to close at 1,605.00. Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co., Ltd. (TYO:4506) followed with an 8.91% gain, closing at 648.00, and Ajinomoto Co., Inc. (TYO:2802) rose 5.58%, finishing at 5,786.00.

On the downside, Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. (TYO:5541) was the worst performer, dropping 1.73% to close at 1,423.00. Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. (TYO:9843) declined by 1.59%, ending at 20,715.00, and Japan Exchange Group Inc. (TYO:8697) fell 1.44% to 1,877.00.

Overall, rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the Tokyo Stock Exchange by 2,540 to 1,052, with 260 shares unchanged.

The Nikkei Volatility Index, which tracks the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, dropped by 12.33% to 24.75, signaling lower market uncertainty.

In commodities, crude oil for November delivery climbed 1.53% to $71.17 per barrel, while Brent oil for December delivery increased by 1.35% to $74.90 per barrel. Gold futures for December delivery also rose 0.21%, reaching $2,675.20 per ounce.

In currency markets, USD/JPY rose 0.18% to 146.72, while EUR/JPY edged up 0.03% to 161.83. The US Dollar Index Futures also gained 0.20%, reaching 101.63.

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Intel Tops Dow Jones on $5 Billion Apollo Investment Speculation

Intel Leads Dow Jones as Top Gainer Amid $5 Billion Apollo Investment Rumors

Intel Leads Dow Jones as Top Gainer Amid $5 Billion Apollo Investment Rumors

Intel (INTC) emerged as the top performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on Monday, outperforming major companies like Visa (V), Walmart (WMT), and Boeing (BA). The semiconductor giant’s shares surged by 3.3% on reports that Apollo Global Management is in discussions to invest $5 billion in the company.

Despite the overall modest market performance— the Dow Jones closed up by 0.15%, comparable to the NASDAQ but trailing the S&P 500—Intel’s stock benefitted from this potential infusion of capital.

Intel Stock News

According to a Bloomberg report from Sunday, Apollo, a leading alternative asset manager, has proposed a $5 billion investment in Intel, which Intel’s management is currently considering. This follows news from last Friday that Qualcomm (QCOM) may be exploring the possibility of acquiring Intel, a move that would mark one of the largest mergers in the semiconductor industry.

Intel, despite its value having fallen by over 50% year-to-date, still boasts a market cap of around $90 billion, while Qualcomm’s valuation is just under $200 billion. A combination of the two companies would create the largest semiconductor firm globally. However, Stifel analyst Ruben Roy quickly downplayed the likelihood of such a deal, citing regulatory hurdles that have derailed similar large-scale acquisitions in the past, such as Nvidia’s (NVDA) failed bid to acquire ARM Holdings and Broadcom’s (AVGO) unsuccessful attempt to buy Qualcomm.

Broadcom had also reportedly considered acquiring Intel but, according to insiders, decided not to move forward with a proposal over the weekend.

Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri expressed skepticism about Qualcomm receiving regulatory approval for the deal, especially given China’s influence in approving major tech mergers: “The speculated QCOM+Intel deal is unlikely to receive China regulatory approval in our view, given the recent M&A experience in the industry,” Pajjuri noted.

Additionally, Intel has been evaluating the sale of its Altera unit, which produces programmable chips. Analysts estimate that the division alone could be worth $22 billion, while other parts of Intel’s business could fetch valuations up to $140 billion in the capital markets.

Intel Stock Forecast

Intel shares have shown some positive movement, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, but the stock has yet to see significant gains. Analysts believe that Intel needs to reclaim the $24.90 support level to attract more bullish interest.

Despite a poor balance sheet, analysts argue that Intel’s parts are worth more than the company as a whole. If acquisition rumors continue to gain momentum, Intel’s stock could rise back toward the $30 range.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits Fed Cues for Next Move

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits Fed Cues for Next Move

Gold price (XAU/USD) continues its sideways consolidation for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, remaining in a narrow range around the $2,500 psychological level as the European session approaches. A generally positive sentiment across global equity markets is acting as a headwind for the safe-haven metal, while a modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its lowest level since January is also capping gains.

Traders seem hesitant to make new bets on Gold’s direction until they receive more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut trajectory. The focus is now on the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Meanwhile, dovish expectations for the Fed, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks, could continue to support XAU/USD and limit any downside.

Market Overview: Gold Price Bulls Await Fed Signals

Gold price is extending its consolidative move near record highs, with traders stepping back to await further signals from the Federal Reserve before positioning for the next significant move. The upcoming FOMC minutes and Powell’s speech are expected to offer hints about the possibility of a larger rate cut in September.

Recent strong US Retail Sales data have tempered fears of a recession, leading market participants to scale back expectations for aggressive policy easing. However, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool still suggests that the Fed may begin its easing cycle in September, with expectations of more than a 200 basis point reduction by the end of 2025.

Key Fed officials, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, have recently commented on the balance of risks and the need for cautious policy adjustments, reflecting ongoing concerns about the US economy.

Geopolitical Updates and Technical Analysis

On the geopolitical front, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated that progress is being made in negotiations to resolve disagreements in the Middle East, which could reduce tensions and boost risk appetite among investors.

From a technical perspective, Gold’s current range-bound movement is likely a bullish consolidation before another leg higher. The constructive outlook is supported by daily chart oscillators that remain in positive territory, though not yet overbought. Bulls are waiting for a breakout above Friday’s all-time high near the $2,509-2,510 area to confirm further gains.

On the downside, immediate support is seen around the $2,472-2,470 resistance-turned-support level. Any decline below this could attract fresh buyers, with key support at $2,448-2,446. A break below this level could lead to a deeper correction, potentially pushing prices towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $2,392.

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Gold Price Awaiting US Macro Data for Potential Gains

Gold Price Awaiting US Macro Data for Potential Gains

Gold Price Awaiting US Macro Data for Potential Gains

Gold prices (XAU/USD) saw a decline on Wednesday as investors adjusted their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy after the release of US consumer inflation data. However, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, expectations of the Fed initiating a rate-cutting cycle soon, and a subdued US Dollar (USD) helped gold regain positive momentum on Thursday.

Despite reduced expectations for a 50 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut in September leading to a modest recovery in US Treasury yields, which could limit aggressive bullish positioning on non-yielding gold, the overall market environment still supports the potential for further gains. Additionally, a generally positive tone in equity markets could pose a challenge to the safe-haven metal. Nonetheless, the fundamental backdrop remains favorable for gold ahead of key US macroeconomic data scheduled for release later on Thursday.

Market Movers: Gold Price Supported by Geopolitical Risk and Weak USD Demand

On Wednesday, data showed that US consumer prices increased as expected in July, dampening hopes for a significant rate cut by the Fed in September. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a moderate 0.2% rise in headline CPI for July, following a 0.1% decline the previous month. The annual CPI increase fell below 3% for the first time in nearly three and a half years, indicating ongoing progress toward the Fed’s inflation targets.

Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also increased by 0.2% in July, easing to 3.2% year-on-year from 3.3% in June. As a result, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now shows a 36% probability of a 50 bps rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, down from 50% before the CPI data. This led to a late recovery in US Treasury yields, which attracted some buying interest in the USD and weighed on gold.

Despite this, ongoing geopolitical tensions provide some support for gold. Mediators are aiming to initiate ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas amid the potential threat of an imminent Iranian attack on Israel.

Traders are now focusing on upcoming US economic reports, including Retail Sales, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and regional manufacturing indices, for short-term trading opportunities.

Technical Outlook: Gold Price Poised for Further Gains Above $2,470 Resistance

Technically, the recent swing low around the $2,438 level is acting as immediate support, followed by the $2,424 area, which was the weekly low on Monday. Continued selling pressure could push gold below the $2,400 mark, targeting the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the $2,380 zone. A decisive break below this level could expose the 100-day SMA near the $2,360 region, potentially triggering further bearish momentum.

However, daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, indicating potential for additional near-term gains. Any further upward movement is likely to encounter resistance around the $2,471-$2,472 region, followed by the $2,483-$2,484 area, which marks the all-time high reached in July. A sustained rise beyond the $2,500 psychological mark would confirm a breakout from the one-month-old trading range and set the stage for further appreciation.

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Asian Shares Rise, Kiwi Slumps as New Zealand

Asian Shares Rise, Kiwi Slumps as New Zealand Cuts Rates

Asian Shares Rise, Kiwi Slumps as New Zealand Cuts Rates

Asian shares climbed on Wednesday following softer-than-expected U.S. producer price data, which bolstered hopes for mild consumer price inflation. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar (kiwi) tumbled after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rates for the first time since early 2020.

European stock futures pointed to a higher opening, with data showing that British inflation in July rose less than anticipated. EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 0.5%, and FTSE futures rose 0.6%. U.S. equity futures remained flat.

In Japan, the announcement that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida would step down as ruling party leader in September added to the busy news flow in Asia. His tenure has been marked by rising prices and political scandals. Following the news, the Japanese yen dipped 0.2%, while the Nikkei index rose 0.6%, recovering from last week’s sharp selloff.

The New Zealand dollar slumped by 1.1% after the RBNZ cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% and signaled further easing. This move was earlier than the bank’s own projections. Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ, commented, “The RBNZ faced a tricky decision today – turning points are always difficult. But the Committee decided they had sufficient confidence in the inflation outlook to start easing monetary conditions.” ANZ has now penciled in a series of 25 basis point cuts, potentially bringing rates down to 3.5%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.4%, with most markets up except China, where both Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and mainland blue chips fell 0.5%.

Wall Street saw a strong rebound after U.S. producer price data indicated a slower rise than expected in July, suggesting continued moderation in inflation. This prompted markets to slightly increase the odds of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, from 50% to 53%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, to a 0.14% rise in July, down from the previous estimate of 0.17%. Investors are now keenly awaiting consumer price data for July, with economists expecting 0.2% increases in both the headline and core figures, and a slight slowdown in the annual core inflation rate to 3.2%.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, noted, “Risk will find buyers if additional implied rate cuts are driven by a reduced inflation dynamic. However, the opposite is true if any additional rate cuts are driven by weaker growth or poor labor market readings – this week’s U.S. retail sales report could therefore be influential on that thesis.”

U.S. bonds experienced solid buying overnight, with two-year yields falling to 3.9392% and ten-year Treasury yields holding at 3.8465% after a 5 basis point drop.

The U.S. dollar was slightly lower due to falling bond yields, edging up 0.1% to 102.70 against major peers after losing 0.5% overnight. The euro strengthened 0.6% overnight, trading near $1.0988, close to a significant resistance level of $1.1.

In commodities, crude oil prices recovered some of the previous day’s losses, with Brent crude futures rising 0.7% to $81.23 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude up 0.7% to $78.93. Gold prices increased by 0.1%, reaching $2,461.72 an ounce.

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Gold Price Stays Steady Above $2,170, Maintaining Bullish Momentum

Gold Price Stays Steady Above $2,170, Maintaining Bullish Momentum

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are experiencing difficulty in building upon their modest overnight gains, remaining within a tight trading range during the early European session on Tuesday. Market participants are taking a cautious approach, preferring to wait for the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. This key data is expected to significantly influence market perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future rate cut strategy, potentially offering a new direction for the non-yielding yellow metal.

The US central bank, in its recent announcement, stated its plan to reduce interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024. This decision is causing a downward pressure on US Treasury bond yields, subsequently impacting the US Dollar (USD) and providing some support to gold prices. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with unrest in the Middle East, are maintaining gold’s status as a safe-haven asset, suggesting a continued upward trajectory.

The focus now shifts to the US economic calendar, which includes significant releases such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, all due in the early North American session. These indicators, alongside movements in US bond yields, are expected to influence USD demand and thereby affect gold prices. Furthermore, the general mood of global risk will also play a crucial role, offering short-term trading opportunities around XAU/USD.

Given these circumstances, gold remains a key asset to watch. While the immediate outlook is constrained by the wait-and-see approach ahead of crucial economic data, underlying factors such as the Fed’s rate policy and global geopolitical concerns are providing a supportive backdrop. Investors and traders will be keeping a close eye on the US data releases and global events to gauge the next significant move in gold prices. As the week progresses, the anticipation around the PCE Price Index will likely heighten, setting the stage for potential volatility in the gold market.

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Oil Price Surge May Limit Gains

WTI Holds Modest Gains, Trading Above Mid-$81 with Bullish Outlook Intact

WTI Holds Modest Gains, Trading Above Mid-$81 with Bullish Outlook Intact

On Thursday, during the Asian trading session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices experienced a notable upturn, attracting buyers and reversing some of the downward movement seen the previous day. The commodity is currently trading around the $81.70 region, maintaining proximity to its over four-month peak reached earlier in the week, signaling a robust upward momentum in the oil market.

This recent increase in oil prices can be partly attributed to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest policy stance. In its March policy meeting concluded on Wednesday, the Fed maintained its projection for three interest rate cuts this year. Such a monetary policy tends to weaken the US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, boosts the appeal of USD-denominated commodities, including Crude Oil. The devaluation of the dollar makes these commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies, thus potentially increasing demand.

Moreover, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s acknowledgment of the strength in the US economy further bolsters the positive outlook for oil demand. A strong economy typically correlates with higher energy consumption, as industrial, transportation, and commercial activities tend to increase, driving up the demand for oil.

Additionally, recent developments in oil inventory and geopolitical factors are influencing oil prices. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report on Wednesday showing an unexpected decline in crude inventories. The report indicated a reduction of 2 million barrels, bringing the total down to 445 million barrels for the week ending March 15. This decline in stockpiles suggests a tightening in the oil market, often a precursor to higher prices.

The geopolitical landscape also plays a critical role in shaping oil market dynamics. Current concerns about potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in Russia and the Middle East are contributing to the upward trend in oil prices. These regions are significant contributors to global oil supply, and any disruption could lead to a decrease in supply, pushing prices higher.

Market participants are now closely monitoring the release of flash PMIs, which offer insights into the global economic health and, consequently, fuel demand. These indicators, coupled with the USD’s price dynamics, are expected to create short-term trading opportunities around oil prices. The fundamental backdrop, characterized by a weakening dollar, reduced oil inventories, and geopolitical uncertainties, seems to favor bullish traders. This environment suggests that any substantial corrective declines in oil prices could be perceived as attractive buying opportunities, with downward movements likely to be short-lived.

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Gold Price Nears One-Week Low, Vulnerable Due to Hawkish Fed Forecasts

Gold Price Nears One-Week Low, Vulnerable Due to Hawkish Fed Forecasts

As the European trading session commences on Tuesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is encountering fresh selling pressure. The precious metal appears to be halting its modest overnight recovery from the $2,145 region, marking its lowest point in over a week. A key factor influencing this trend is the anticipation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its stance on high interest rates for an extended period, driven by persistently high inflation in the United States. This expectation sustains the strength of US Treasury bond yields, which in turn bolsters the US Dollar (USD) to near a two-week peak. The strengthened USD is a major element that negatively impacts the value of gold, which is a non-yielding asset.

Despite these pressures, the market still harbors expectations that the Fed might initiate a cycle of rate cuts as soon as June. This prospect, combined with ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties, could lend some support to gold prices, viewed as a safe-haven asset, thereby potentially mitigating further losses. Furthermore, ahead of the critical two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting starting this Tuesday, traders are likely to exhibit caution, avoiding aggressive directional bets on the gold market. This meeting is highly anticipated, as investors are eager to discern any indications regarding the Fed’s future rate-cut trajectory. The outcomes of this meeting are expected to significantly influence the demand for the USD, and consequently, provide important momentum to the gold market.

In summary, while the current macroeconomic environment and monetary policy expectations pose challenges to gold prices, factors like potential Fed rate cuts and global tensions could provide some buoyancy. Investors and traders are closely watching the upcoming FOMC meeting for further direction, making this a critical juncture for the gold market and its short-term trajectory.

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WTI Holds Steady Near $68.50 Amid US Dollar Strength

WTI Stabilizes Near $78.50 Following Recent Upsurge Due to Changes in US Crude Oil Inventories

WTI Stabilizes Near $78.50 Following Recent Upsurge Due to Changes in US Crude Oil Inventories

During the Asian trading hours on Thursday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price experienced a slight decline, hovering around $78.50 per barrel. This movement follows a notable surge on Wednesday, primarily fueled by developments in the US crude oil inventory data.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that for the week ending March 1, crude oil stockpiles increased for the sixth consecutive week. The build-up was recorded at 1.367 million barrels, which was lower than the market’s anticipated increase of 2.116 million barrels and significantly less than the previous week’s rise of 4.199 million barrels. In a similar vein, the American Petroleum Institute (API) Weekly Crude Oil Stock data indicated a build in inventories of 0.423 million barrels. This outcome defied market expectations, which predicted a decrease of around 2.6 million barrels from the previous figure of 8.428 million barrels.

Furthermore, crude oil prices were buoyed by a weakening US Dollar (USD) in the wake of comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. During his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Powell hinted at the possibility of the central bank reducing borrowing costs “at some point this year.” A weaker dollar generally makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, which can increase demand.

The optimistic outlook on China’s economy also lent support to oil prices. China’s Trade Balance for February impressively climbed to $125.16 billion, exceeding expectations of $103.7 billion and markedly higher than the prior $75.34 billion. Year-on-year, both imports and exports from China grew by 3.5% and 7.1%, respectively, indicating a rebound in economic activity which could translate into higher energy demand.

Additionally, oil prices are reacting to geopolitical factors. Notably, Saudi Arabia, a key member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), raised the prices of its primary oil grade for Asian buyers. This decision came in the wake of OPEC+ agreeing to extend their voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) into the second quarter, aiming to stabilize the market amid fluctuating global demand and supply conditions.

All these factors collectively influence the WTI price, as the global oil market continues to respond to a complex interplay of inventory levels, currency fluctuations, geopolitical decisions, and broader economic indicators.

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US PCE Data Approaches

WTI Stays Under $78.00 as US PCE Data Approaches

WTI Stays Under $78.00 as US PCE Data Approaches

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for US crude oil, is currently hovering around $77.75 as of Thursday. The WTI prices have seen a slight decline, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to postpone initial rate cuts and the pressure from increasing US oil inventories.

Recent reports indicate a substantial rise in US crude oil stocks. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase of 8.428 million barrels in the week ending February 23, up from a build of 7.168 million barrels in the preceding week. Complementing this data, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that crude oil stockpiles rose by 4.199 million barrels last week, exceeding the previous increase of 3.514 million barrels.

In an effort to manage oil supply, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including a key player, Saudi Arabia, agreed last November to cut oil production by 2.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of the year. Additionally, there is speculation that OPEC+ might extend these voluntary output reductions into the second quarter, potentially leading to tighter market conditions.

Concurrently, recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials suggest a delay in interest rate reductions. This could potentially slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker recently advocated for a gradual and cautious approach to rate cuts to mitigate risk and uncertainty. Fed Governor Bowman noted that while inflation is expected to decline with current interest rates, it is premature to begin rate reductions. Kansas City Fed President Schmid echoed these sentiments, pointing out the unnecessary nature of preemptive policy adjustments given the current economic conditions, including above-target inflation and tight labor markets.

Market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (Core PCE) data, expected on Thursday. Forecasts suggest a drop to 2.8% year-over-year for January. This data, pivotal for the USD-denominated WTI pricing, is likely to influence oil traders, who will be looking for trading opportunities based on the outcomes and their impact on WTI prices.

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WTI Oil Price Stays Around $77.30 Amid Potential

WTI Oil Price Stays Around $77.30 Amid Potential Supply Interruptions and Russian Ban on Gasoline Exports

WTI Oil Price Stays Around $77.30 Amid Potential Supply Interruptions and Russian Ban on Gasoline Exports

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices are experiencing a surge, primarily influenced by geopolitical tensions and disruptions in international sea traffic. These disruptions have been notably caused by Iran-aligned Houthi militants. During the European trading session on Tuesday, WTI prices have been observed hovering around the $77.30 mark. 

The Houthi militants, based in Yemen, have escalated their activities, extending their reach to global communication systems. A recent development involves the disruption of key underwater cables that are crucial for connectivity between Europe and Asia. This strategic move by the Houthi group has raised concerns over potential impacts on international communication and trade.

Compounding the situation is Russia’s recent announcement of a six-month ban on gasoline exports, effective from March 1. This decision by the Russian government, as reported by Russia’s RBC and endorsed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, is an attempt to stabilize domestic oil prices during a period of refinery maintenance. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had proposed this ban in a letter dated February 21, emphasizing the need for internal market stabilization in Russia.

The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is also affecting crude oil prices. The targeting of civilian shipping vessels in the Red Sea by Houthi militants has led to heightened security concerns in the region. In response, the United States Military Central Command (CENTCOM) has launched attacks against Houthi targets, reportedly destroying missiles, unmanned vessels, and a drone in an effort to protect international shipping routes.

Adding to the regional tensions, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced plans for military action in Rafah, a city currently hosting a large number of displaced Palestinians. The situation in the Middle East is further complicated by ongoing negotiations to halt Israeli military actions in Gaza. US President Joe Biden has expressed optimism about reaching an agreement within a week, which would hinge on the release of hostages held by Hamas.

These series of events – from the disruption of international sea traffic by Houthi militants, the Russian ban on gasoline exports, to the escalating tensions in the Middle East – collectively contribute to the volatile state of oil prices. The global oil market remains sensitive to these geopolitical developments, with WTI prices reacting to the unfolding situations and the potential implications on global supply and demand dynamics.

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Gold Price Hovers Near 50-Day SMA Amid Soft USD

Gold Price Hovers Near 50-Day SMA Amid Soft USD, Lacking Bullish Momentum

Gold Price Hovers Near 50-Day SMA Amid Soft USD, Lacking Bullish Momentum

The Gold price (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory for the sixth consecutive day, reaching above the $2,030 level in the early European trading session. This marks a climb closer to the over one-week high achieved the day before. Despite the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) assertive stance on maintaining higher interest rates, the US Dollar (USD) experiences a downturn, hitting a three-week low. This weakening of the USD emerges as a crucial factor bolstering gold’s value.

In addition to the softer dollar, growing concerns over geopolitical tensions, particularly those arising from conflicts in the Middle East, have further enhanced gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. This geopolitical backdrop has played a significant role in supporting the metal’s upward price movement.

Concurrently, the minutes from the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting have reinforced market expectations that the Fed is likely to sustain elevated interest rates for an extended period. This policy is in response to persistently high inflation rates and the resilience of the US economy. The affirmation of this stance is supportive of higher yields on US Treasury bonds. These elevated yields are expected to provide some buffer against deeper losses for the USD, which in turn could serve as a counterbalance to the rising prices of non-yielding assets like gold.

Moreover, the generally upbeat sentiment in the equity markets also plays a role in the gold market dynamics. While gold prices are gaining, the positive atmosphere in stock markets suggests a level of risk appetite among investors, which might temper the rally in gold prices. Investors and traders are thus advised to look for a consistent breakthrough and stabilization above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before placing new bullish bets on the XAU/USD pair.

Overall, the current scenario presents a complex interplay of factors influencing gold prices. The weakened USD, geopolitical tensions, Fed’s monetary policy, bond yields, and the global equity market sentiment are all contributing to the gold market’s dynamics. As these factors continue to evolve, they will likely shape the future direction of gold prices, necessitating careful monitoring by investors and traders to navigate this multifaceted environment effectively.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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Gold Price Struggles to Gain Momentum as Traders Await New Catalysts

Gold Price Struggles to Gain Momentum as Traders Await New Catalysts

Gold Price Struggles to Gain Momentum as Traders Await New Catalysts

The Gold price (XAU/USD) has rebounded from multi-day lows but remains under the $2,500 mark amid a renewed bid in the U.S. Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. Despite this, ongoing geopolitical risks and the potential for imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts could support the yellow metal in the near term.

Later on Wednesday, the JOLTS Job Openings and the Fed Beige Book are scheduled for release. Investors are particularly focused on Friday’s U.S. August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the size and pace of potential rate cuts at the Fed’s September policy meeting. A weaker-than-expected NFP reading might heighten concerns about a U.S. recession, potentially leading to faster Fed rate cuts and providing a boost to gold, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold Price Pressured by Stronger U.S. Dollar

  • China’s Caixin Services PMI fell to 51.6 in August, down from 52.1 in July and missing the market expectation of 52.2 by a significant margin.
  • Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities, noted, “Speculative positioning in gold seems maxed out for now. The pressure from the stronger dollar reflects our view on positioning.”
  • The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI edged up to 47.2 in August from an eight-month low of 46.8 in July, but this was below the market consensus of 47.5.
  • Traders have increased the likelihood of a more aggressive half-point rate cut to 39%, up from 31% before the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI report, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
  • The U.S. JOLTS Job Openings are anticipated to decline slightly to 8.10 million, down from 8.184 million in June.
  • The U.S. ISM Services PMI is expected to rise marginally to 51.4 in August from 51.1 in July.

Technical Analysis: Gold Price Maintains Positive Long-Term Outlook

Despite trading in negative territory for the day, gold maintains a bullish trend on the daily chart. The price remains above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), supported by a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) that stays above the midline.

The critical resistance for gold lies between $2,530 and $2,540, corresponding to the upper boundary of a five-month-old ascending channel and the all-time high. A sustained move above this level could open the door to the psychological $2,600 mark.

Conversely, immediate support is found at $2,470, the low from August 22. A breach of this level could lead to a decline towards $2,432, the low from August 15, with further losses potentially driving the price down to $2,377, the 100-day EMA.

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Pound Sterling Drops from Recent Highs as Attention Turns to US Core PCE Inflation

Pound Sterling Drops from Recent Highs as Attention Turns to US Core PCE Inflation

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has pulled back from a more-than-two-year high of 1.3266 against the US Dollar (USD) during Wednesday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair has dipped as the US Dollar regains some strength, with investors now focusing on the upcoming US core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for July, which is due on Friday. This data release could be a key catalyst for the pair.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s performance against six major currencies, has found some buying interest, rebounding after reaching a new year-to-date low of 100.50.

Despite this recent recovery, the short-term outlook for the US Dollar remains bearish, as market participants are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates at its September meeting. The main debate among traders is whether the Fed will implement a significant rate cut or opt for a smaller reduction in borrowing costs.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the 30-day Federal Funds Futures data indicates a 34.5% probability of a 50-basis point rate cut in September, with the remainder favoring a 25-basis point cut.

Regarding core PCE inflation, economists anticipate that the Fed’s preferred inflation measure rose at a year-on-year rate of 2.7% in July, up from 2.6% in June, with the monthly figures showing steady growth of 0.2%. Persistent inflation would likely reduce market expectations for a large Fed rate cut, while further easing in price pressures could increase the likelihood of more aggressive rate cuts.

Market Movers: Pound Sterling Guided by BoE Mann’s Speech

The Pound Sterling is showing mixed performance against its major counterparts during Wednesday’s European trading hours. The currency is expected to trade in a narrow range as investors seek new insights regarding the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate trajectory.

The BoE cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5% in August, marking the end of its two-and-a-half-year-long restrictive monetary policy stance, as officials grew confident that inflation would sustainably return to the bank’s 2% target. Market participants anticipate that the BoE’s pace of rate cuts for the rest of the year will be slower compared to other central banks, given that the UK economy appears resilient, supported by the August flash S&P Global/CIPS PMI data and robust Q2 GDP growth.

For further direction on interest rates, investors are awaiting a speech from BoE policymaker Catherine Mann, scheduled for 12:15 GMT. Mann was among those who voted to keep interest rates steady at 5.25% during the August 1 policy meeting. Her remarks will be closely scrutinized for any indications of the BoE’s future rate cuts, along with perspectives on service inflation and wage pressures.

On the political front, comments from UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer about the upcoming financial budget, expected in October, have also bolstered the appeal of the Pound Sterling. Starmer suggested that the budget would involve “short-term pain for long-term gain,” with plans to increase taxes, particularly for higher-income households.

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling Holds Key Support at 1.3200

The Pound Sterling has seen a mild correction after reaching a new two-and-a-half-year high of 1.3266 against the US Dollar. The near-term outlook for the GBP/USD pair remains positive, as it maintains the breakout from the Rising Channel chart pattern on the weekly time frame. If bullish momentum resumes, the pair could target the February 4, 2022, high of 1.3640.

The upward-sloping 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), located near 1.3000, indicates a strong bullish trend. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting robust upward momentum, although it has reached overbought territory around 70.00, which could prompt a corrective pullback. On the downside, the psychological level of 1.3000 is expected to serve as crucial support for Pound Sterling bulls.

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Rate Cuts Could Facilitate a Soft Landing

Rate Cuts Could Facilitate a Soft Landing: UBS

Rate Cuts Could Facilitate a Soft Landing: UBS

In a note released on Monday, UBS Financial Services reiterated its forecast that the U.S. economy is on track for a soft landing, despite acknowledging significant risks of a potential downturn. Consumer spending will be a critical factor in determining whether the economy can achieve this outcome.

UBS expects the Federal Reserve to begin lowering interest rates soon, potentially as early as its next meeting in September. These rate cuts are seen as a way to support the economy during this period of uncertainty.
The U.S. labor market has undergone substantial changes since the start of the year. UBS highlighted that the unemployment rate has risen quickly, moving from 3.7% in January to 4.3% in July. Historically, such an increase has been linked with economic downturns. However, UBS suggests this situation might be different, pointing out that the labor market remains robust by historical standards, even though it is no longer as overheated as it was two years ago.

Weekly jobless claims, a leading indicator of labor market health, have shown a rising trend. However, UBS advises interpreting this data cautiously, as it is often volatile and difficult to seasonally adjust. Although claims appear to be increasing, they remain low compared to historical norms, indicating that the labor market, while cooling, is not yet showing signs of a significant downturn.

Consumer spending is expected to play a pivotal role in the U.S. economic recovery. UBS notes that excess savings accumulated during the pandemic have largely been exhausted, making continued income growth crucial for sustaining consumer spending. Despite concerns, recent retail sales data for June and July have been stronger than expected, suggesting that the economic recovery is still on track.

However, the outlook is not without uncertainty. The U.S. government recently revised down its estimate of job growth for the 12 months ending in March by 818,000 jobs. Moreover, the latest labor market report showed some weakness in key income determinants such as wages and hours worked. UBS has adjusted its base case to reflect a soft landing but has increased the probability of a hard landing from 20% to 25%.

Inflation remains a central concern for the Federal Reserve and financial markets. UBS points out that inflation trends have shown some positive signs recently. While inflation was relatively high at the start of the year, more recent data has been softer, with the headline inflation rate slowing to 2.9% year-over-year in July—the lowest since early 2021.

The decline in inflation has been driven by falling goods prices and moderating services inflation. However, UBS notes that shelter inflation, a significant component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), reaccelerated in July, rising by 0.4% month-over-month, compared to 0.2% in June. Shelter inflation is critical as it constitutes the largest portion of the CPI basket. Excluding shelter, inflation was only 1.7% year-over-year in July, suggesting broader inflationary pressures are easing. UBS remains confident that shelter inflation will eventually decline, especially given the modest increases in new rental leases since early 2023.

The Federal Reserve has indicated its readiness to begin cutting interest rates, as reflected in the minutes from the July FOMC meeting and comments from Fed officials. These rate cuts could start at the September 18 meeting, although uncertainty remains regarding their pace and magnitude.

UBS argues that the sharp rise in the unemployment rate, which the Fed had not anticipated, provides a compelling reason for the central bank to act swiftly. With real interest rates significantly above neutral, there is a case for an initial, aggressive rate cut. UBS’s base scenario involves a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year, potentially requiring a 50-basis-point cut at one of the remaining three FOMC meetings.

Given the Fed’s data-dependent approach, UBS cautions that various outcomes are possible. The upcoming September FOMC meeting is highly anticipated, with the Fed expected to use the meeting’s dot plot to signal its interest rate projections for the rest of the year. This will provide investors with a clearer picture of the Fed’s monetary policy direction and its efforts to guide the economy toward a soft landing.

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Japanese Yen Moves Sideways Despite Hawkish BoJ Signals

Japanese Yen Moves Sideways Despite Hawkish BoJ Signals

Japanese Yen Moves Sideways Despite Hawkish BoJ Signals

The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded sideways against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, even as a recent Reuters poll, conducted from August 13-19 and published on Wednesday, showed that 31 out of 54 economists expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise borrowing costs before the end of the year. The median forecast predicts a 25 basis point hike, which would bring the year-end rate to 0.50%.

Despite these hawkish expectations, the USD/JPY pair gained ground as the Yen weakened following the release of a record trade deficit report on Wednesday. Traders are now eagerly awaiting BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s appearance in parliament on Friday, where he is expected to discuss the central bank’s recent decision to raise interest rates.

On Thursday, the US Dollar edged higher, supported by a modest recovery in Treasury yields. However, the Greenback’s gains could be limited as the Federal Reserve is expected to implement up to 100 basis points (bps) in rate cuts throughout 2024. Market analysts remain divided on whether the Fed will opt for a 25 or 50 bps cut at its September meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut at the September meeting has decreased to 65.5%, down from 71.0% the previous day. Conversely, the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut has risen to 34.5% from 29.0%.

Market Movers: Japanese Yen Holds Steady Ahead of BoJ Governor Ueda’s Speech

Traders are exercising caution ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Powell’s remarks could provide crucial insights into the Fed’s potential interest rate cuts in the United States.

The minutes from the Fed’s July policy meeting revealed that most officials anticipated a likely rate cut in September, provided inflation continues to cool.

Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance showed a deficit of ¥621.84 billion in July, a sharp reversal from the ¥224.0 billion surplus reported in June, and fell short of market expectations of a ¥330.7 billion deficit. Imports surged by 16.6% year-on-year in July, reaching a 19-month high of ¥10,241.01 billion, up from a 3.2% increase in June. Meanwhile, exports grew by 10.3% YoY to a seven-month high of ¥9,619.17 billion, missing market forecasts of 11.4%.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed caution on Tuesday, highlighting ongoing upside risks to inflation and warning against overreacting to individual data points, which could undermine the progress already made, according to Reuters.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) had forecasted that strong economic recovery would help inflation sustainably reach its 2% target, justifying further rate hikes following last month’s increase as part of the BoJ’s efforts to unwind years of extensive monetary stimulus, Reuters reported.

On Sunday, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly emphasized the need for a gradual approach to reducing borrowing costs, while Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warned against maintaining a restrictive policy longer than necessary, according to the Financial Times and CNBC, respectively.

On Thursday, Kazutaka Maeda, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute, commented that recent economic reports are broadly positive, supporting the BoJ’s stance and signaling the potential for further rate hikes, though the central bank would remain cautious after the last rate increase caused a sharp spike in the Yen.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Holds Above 145.00

USD/JPY is trading around 145.20 on Thursday. A look at the daily chart shows the pair consolidating under a downtrend line, suggesting a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above 30, indicating the potential for a correction.

On the downside, the USD/JPY pair could find support around the psychological level of 144.00. A break below this level could lead the pair toward the seven-month low of 141.69, recorded on August 5, with further declines potentially targeting the next significant support level at 140.25.

On the upside, immediate resistance could be found at the downtrend line near the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 146.45. A break above this level could weaken the bearish outlook, allowing the pair to test the resistance at 154.50, which has transitioned from previous support to current resistance.

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WTI Crude Oil Remains Below $75.50 Amid Chinese Demand Concerns

WTI Crude Oil Remains Below $75.50 Amid Chinese Demand Concerns

WTI Crude Oil Remains Below $75.50 Amid Chinese Demand Concerns

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering around $75.30 per barrel during the Asian session on Monday, pressured by concerns over weakened demand from China, the world’s top oil importer.

Recent data from China revealed that Industrial Production increased by 5.1% year-on-year in July, slightly below the expected 5.2% and down from the 5.3% growth recorded in June. This marks the third consecutive month of slowing industrial output, fueling worries about reduced demand for crude oil.

However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could potentially support oil prices. The situation has been tense following Hamas’s rejection of a ceasefire deal on Sunday, which has raised concerns over the stability of the region. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday to discuss the ongoing negotiations, with further talks scheduled in Cairo.
The potential downside for oil prices may be limited by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut as early as September. Recent US economic data has shown strong retail sales and easing inflationary pressures, which could lead to lower borrowing costs and potentially boost economic activity in the US.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee both emphasized a cautious approach to rate cuts, suggesting that the Fed should avoid keeping restrictive policies in place longer than necessary.

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Japanese Yen Holds Losses

Japanese Yen Holds Losses as US Dollar Stabilizes Ahead of Key Economic Data

Japanese Yen Holds Losses as US Dollar Stabilizes Ahead of Key Economic Data

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued its decline against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, with safe-haven flows offering some support amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Japan’s parliament is set to hold a special session on August 23 to discuss the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent decision to raise interest rates. This session, organized by the lower house financial affairs committee, is expected to include an appearance by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, as reported by Reuters.

The USD/JPY pair found support as pressure on the US Dollar eased, following a reduction in expectations for a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point cut in September has decreased to 50%, down from 85% the previous week. However, markets still fully anticipate at least a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting.

Investors are closely watching the release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Tuesday and Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Wednesday for signs that inflation remains under control in the US.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Yen Weakens as Fed Rate Cut Odds Diminish

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman commented on Sunday that she sees continued upside risks to inflation and strength in the labor market. Bowman suggested that the Fed may not be ready to cut rates at its September meeting, according to Bloomberg.

A Bloomberg report last week indicated that JP Morgan Asset Management (JPAM) believes the BoJ is unlikely to raise interest rates in the near term. JPAM anticipates that the BoJ may only consider further rate hikes if the Fed cuts rates and the US economy stabilizes, with additional tightening possibly occurring in 2025, provided the global economic environment remains stable.

The BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its July 30-31 Monetary Policy Meeting revealed that several members believe economic activity and prices are evolving as expected, targeting a neutral rate of “at least around 1%” in the medium term.

BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida also highlighted that the BoJ’s interest rate strategy could adapt if market volatility alters economic forecasts, risk assessments, or projections. Given recent market volatility, he emphasized the importance of closely monitoring the economic and price impacts of their policies, stating the need to “maintain the current degree of monetary easing for the time being.”

Minutes from the BoJ’s June meeting indicated concerns among some members about rising import prices due to the recent decline in the JPY, which could pose an upside risk to inflation. One member noted that cost-push inflation might exacerbate underlying inflation if it leads to higher inflation expectations and wage growth.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Tests 147.50; Next Barrier at Nine-Day EMA

The USD/JPY pair trades around 147.40 on Tuesday, with the daily chart indicating the pair remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a short-term bearish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has breached the 30 level, indicating a potential for a corrective move. If the RSI approaches the 50 level, it could signal a possible improvement in the pair’s momentum.

For support, the USD/JPY pair may test the seven-month low at 141.69, recorded on August 5, followed by the next support level at 140.25.

On the upside, the USD/JPY pair could challenge the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA around 147.72. A breakout above this level could reduce bearish momentum and allow the pair to approach the 5-day EMA at 153.68, followed by resistance at 154.50.

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Australian Dollar Advances as RBA Signals Potential Rate Hike

Australian Dollar Advances as RBA Signals Potential Rate Hike

Australian Dollar Advances as RBA Signals Potential Rate Hike

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, driven by hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Positive inflation data from China, a key trading partner, also provided support for the Aussie Dollar.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized the importance of vigilance regarding inflation risks, stating that the central bank is prepared to raise rates again if necessary. This follows the RBA’s decision to keep rates steady at 4.35% for the sixth consecutive meeting.

On the USD front, market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September have put pressure on the USD, potentially providing further support for the AUD/USD pair. Investors will be closely watching US producer inflation data on Tuesday and consumer inflation figures on Wednesday for signs of stable price growth.

Daily Market Movers: Australian Dollar Rises on Hawkish RBA

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser attributed persistent inflation to weaker supply and a tight labor market, noting significant uncertainty in economic forecasts. However, the AUD’s gains could be limited by safe-haven flows due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Reports suggest Iran may be preparing for a significant strike on Israel, adding a layer of risk to global markets.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated on Sunday her concerns about ongoing inflation risks and a strong labor market, indicating the Fed might not be ready to cut rates in September.

In China, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in July, surpassing expectations. Westpac updated its RBA forecast, now predicting the first rate cut will occur in February 2025, moving from the previously anticipated November 2024, and raising its terminal rate forecast to 3.35%.

Last week, Treasurer Jim Chalmers challenged the RBA’s view that the Australian economy is too robust, which he believes is contributing to prolonged inflation. RBA Chief Economist Sarah Hunter also noted that the Australian economy is performing better than previously expected.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar Nears Key Support Levels

The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6590 on Monday, within an ascending channel that suggests a bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is consolidating below the 50 level, and a move above this threshold could signal strengthening bullish momentum.

Resistance for the AUD/USD pair is likely around the 0.6630 level, with a breakout potentially pushing the pair toward its six-month high of 0.6798. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6575, with a drop below this level possibly reinforcing a bearish bias, potentially driving the pair toward 0.6540 and further to 0.6470 if pressure persists.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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