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Gold Price Pressured Near Daily Low Amid Trump-Driven USD Strength

Gold Price Pressured Near Daily Low Amid Trump-Driven USD Strength

Gold Price Pressured Near Daily Low Amid Trump-Driven USD Strength

Gold (XAU/USD) continues last week’s slide, facing additional selling pressure for a second day on Monday amid a robust US Dollar (USD) outlook. Optimism over US President-elect Donald Trump’s anticipated expansionary policies has bolstered the USD, pushing it near a four-month high reached last week, which in turn dampens demand for gold.

Trump’s proposal for a 10% tariff on all US imports is expected to drive inflation higher and constrain the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ability to adopt aggressive easing measures. Elevated US Treasury bond yields have supported this outlook, prompting investors to move away from non-yielding assets like gold. However, a cautious market sentiment may help contain further losses for the safe-haven metal.

With key events on the horizon, including the latest US inflation data and speeches from prominent FOMC members like Fed Chair Jerome Powell, traders may adopt a wait-and-see approach. This caution could prevent a further extension of gold’s recent sharp pullback from the $2,800 mark, an all-time high set on October 31.

Gold Price Bears in Control as USD Holds Firm

Gold’s sharp weekly decline—the steepest in over five months—has been fueled by the USD rally and rising Treasury yields following Trump’s election victory. Enthusiasm surrounding the so-called “Trump trade” continues to boost the Greenback, exerting downward pressure on gold as equity markets remain upbeat.

Last week, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, hinting at potential further easing. Despite this, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized the need for more evidence of inflation returning to the 2% target before considering further cuts. Expectations that Trump’s protectionist policies may amplify global trade tensions could also offer support to the safe-haven XAU/USD.

With upcoming US inflation, producer price, and retail sales reports, as well as key comments from Fed officials, investors may avoid large positions, awaiting new cues that will shape the USD’s direction and influence gold’s trajectory.

Technical Outlook: Gold Remains Near Multi-Week Low with Key Support Levels

Technically, further declines in gold may find support around $2,660, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) positioned near $2,647-2,746. A break below last week’s low of $2,643 could trigger increased bearish sentiment, potentially accelerating the decline toward the October low of $2,605-2,602.

On the upside, a move above $2,700 could face strong resistance at the $2,718 level, with a further hurdle in the $2,740-2,745 supply zone. Sustained strength beyond this range could signal the end of the corrective phase, potentially driving gold toward $2,758-2,790 and challenging the record high set on October 31.

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Japanese Yen Stabilizes Against USD Amid Mixed Market Signals

Japanese Yen Stabilizes Against USD Amid Mixed Market Signals

Japanese Yen Stabilizes Against USD Amid Mixed Market Signals

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains range-bound against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, fluctuating between slight gains and losses in early European trading. Despite recent verbal intervention from Japanese authorities to support the JPY, skepticism around the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to implement further rate hikes limits the currency’s upward potential.

Optimism around potential growth and inflation from Trump’s economic policies also provides a tailwind for US Treasury yields, overshadowing the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance. This, combined with renewed buying interest in the USD, helps cushion the USD/JPY pair from further declines.

Yen Under Pressure Despite Intervention and Economic Data Weakness

On Friday, Japanese government data revealed a second consecutive month of declines in household spending, with a 1.3% drop in September, following a similar trend in inflation-adjusted wages. These economic headwinds may challenge the BoJ’s ability to pursue additional rate hikes.

Further impacting the Yen, Japanese officials reiterated their commitment to monitoring the foreign exchange market closely. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi emphasized a high level of urgency, while Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura indicated the government’s readiness to counter excessive currency movements. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato expressed concern over the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on Japan’s domestic economy.

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair rebounded above 154.00 following Trump’s election victory, prompting verbal intervention from Japan’s leadership. Quarterly data from the Ministry of Finance (MOF) revealed ¥5.53 trillion spent on currency interventions between June and July.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Maintains Bullish Bias Above Key Support Levels

Technically, the USD/JPY’s recent dip found support near the 152.70–152.65 level, a pivotal area that may now act as a buffer. A break below this could accelerate a correction towards the 152.00 mark, with further downside potentially reaching the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 151.70–151.65. Continued selling pressure would signal that the pair’s strong recent uptrend has stalled, opening the door for deeper declines.

On the upside, resistance is expected around the 153.50 level, followed by a key supply zone near 153.85–153.90. A move back above 154.00 could position the pair to retest Thursday’s multi-month high around 154.70, with momentum potentially extending to the psychological 155.00 level and the 155.20 zone, which aligns with the July 30 swing high.

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Gold Price Sinks to Multi-Week Low as Trump Victory Spurs Sharp USD Rally

Gold Price Sinks to Multi-Week Low as Trump Victory Spurs Sharp USD Rally

Gold (XAU/USD) faces heavy selling pressure in Wednesday’s European session, dropping to the $2,700 level—its lowest in nearly three weeks. Republican candidate Donald Trump is leading the US presidential race, positioning him as the likely 47th president, which has sparked a strong US Dollar (USD) rally and triggered aggressive gold sell-offs.

Additionally, concerns over deficit spending and expectations of less aggressive easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) are pushing US Treasury yields higher, making gold less attractive as a non-yielding asset. The risk-on sentiment, illustrated by a strong rally in US equity futures, further signals a downward bias for the safe-haven XAU/USD.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold Price Hit by Persistent USD Buying

The US Dollar surged to a four-month high as US election exit polls indicate momentum in favor of former President Donald Trump. The current electoral tally stands at 227 for Trump and 189 for Harris, with Trump leading in key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Fox News reports a Republican-controlled Senate, as Trump-endorsed candidate Bernie Moreno is projected to win in Ohio.

With Trump performing strongly, speculation over inflationary tariffs and deficit-spending has driven US Treasury yields higher. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield spiked nearly 15 basis points, reaching 4.44%, its highest since early July. The reduced uncertainty surrounding the US election has intensified risk-on trading, adding pressure on safe-haven gold.

Geopolitical concerns, including Iran’s potential retaliation against Israel for an October 26 attack, have had limited impact on gold’s recent decline.

Technical Outlook: Gold Price Tests Key Support Levels

From a technical perspective, the $2,725-2,720 zone remains critical support; a drop below this could see gold accelerate toward sub-$2,700 levels, marking the lower edge of an ascending channel from late July. A decisive break below could lead to further declines toward the next key support at $2,675, and potentially to the $2,657-2,655 area.

Conversely, resistance has formed around $2,748-2,750. A sustained move above this could push gold toward the ascending channel resistance near $2,780-2,785, with $2,800 acting as a pivotal level. A strong breakout beyond $2,800 could signal a continuation of the previous uptrend.

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Australian Dollar Holds Gains Following Hawkish RBA Comments, Focus Shifts to US Election

Australian Dollar Holds Gains Following Hawkish RBA Comments, Focus Shifts to US Election

Australian Dollar Holds Gains Following Hawkish RBA Comments, Focus Shifts to US Election

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains steady after gains from improved Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% for an eighth consecutive pause in November, and it’s expected to maintain current rates following this policy decision.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted the importance of maintaining restrictive interest rates amid ongoing inflation risks. Although the labor market remains tight, wage growth is showing signs of moderation.

In Australia, Judo Bank’s Services PMI rose to 51.0 in October, exceeding the market consensus of 50.6, while the Composite PMI climbed to 50.2 from 49.8. China’s Caixin Services PMI also improved, rising to 52.0 in October from 50.3 in September, signaling a broader regional economic uplift.

As attention turns to the US presidential election, investors are closely monitoring its outcome. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris made final campaign stops in Pennsylvania on Monday, both expressing confidence in an exceptionally close race. Opinion polls show a virtual tie, with the final results potentially delayed for days. Trump has hinted at contesting any unfavorable result, as he did in 2020.

The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure amid election uncertainties, with a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leading Trump by a narrow margin in Iowa, 47% to 44%. Markets are also awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision on Thursday, with expectations for a modest 25 basis point rate cut, backed by a 99.5% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Australian inflation indicators are mixed, with the TD-MI Inflation Gauge rising by 0.3% month-over-month in October, the highest since July. ANZ Australia Job Advertisements grew by 0.3% in October, a slowdown from September’s revised 2.3% gain. Despite weaker growth, job advertisements have risen for two consecutive months.

In other news, China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australia’s Trade Minister Don Farrell on Sunday to discuss enhancing bilateral trade and ensuring fair treatment for Chinese businesses in Australia.

In US employment data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a modest 12,000 increase in October’s Nonfarm Payrolls, significantly below expectations of 113,000. However, the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%, in line with forecasts.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Holds Below 0.6600 with Bearish Trend Indications

AUD/USD trades near 0.6590 on Tuesday, with technical indicators suggesting the bearish trend may be easing as it tests the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, indicating the bearish sentiment persists.

On the resistance side, AUD/USD faces immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA at 0.6596, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6618. A break above these levels could see the pair aim for the psychological level of 0.6700.

On the downside, support lies near the three-month low of 0.6536, with further support at the key psychological level of 0.6500 if bearish pressure resumes.

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Australian Dollar Steady Amid RBA’s Restrictive Policy Outlook

Australian Dollar remains subdued as US Dollar inches higher ahead of US PCE Price Index

Australian Dollar remains subdued as US Dollar inches higher ahead of US PCE Price Index

The Australian Dollar lingered in that strange, somber limbo it often found itself in, steady yet subdued against the mighty Greenback as Thursday dawned over the global market. Beneath the surface, there was a story in each data point, and the numbers came in trickling like beads of dew.

In Australia, retail sales lifted only by a whisper, 0.1% in September—fragile and disappointing, falling far short of the golden 0.3% expected, and a pale echo of August’s more confident 0.7%. Yet the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish stance lent the Aussie Dollar a quiet backbone, helping it hold its ground even in the face of the looming U.S. PCE Price Index.

Across the Pacific, the U.S. Dollar gathered momentum with an aura of steadfast resilience as markets weighed in on the uncertainty, the shadows of the upcoming U.S. presidential election casting a long reflection over the currency. Yet even the Greenback found headwinds as U.S. growth data came in, slower than last quarter, reminding investors of the delicate line between expectations and reality.

China’s PMI figures trickled in with cautious optimism—the Manufacturing PMI edged above fifty, a shy ascent to 50.1, modestly outperforming the expectation, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI held its stance with a gentle rise to 50.2. The ADP report from the U.S. cast a brighter hue, with job growth well beyond the forecasts—a glimmer of vibrancy in an otherwise cautious economy.

Technical analysts cast a wary eye on the charts; AUD/USD hovered, almost defiantly, near 0.6570. The bearish trend traced its course along a descending channel, while the 14-day RSI lingered just above thirty, hinting at sentiment as overcast as a gray autumn morning. If the pair ventured south, it might test 0.6510, even touching the hallowed psychological 0.6500. And if resistance came calling? The journey might meander up to 0.6580 or the elusive 0.6600, where, in whispers, a breakout toward 0.6608 could still glisten on the horizon like an ephemeral Gatsby green light.

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Japanese Yen Struggles as BoJ Decision Looms; US Data in Focus

Japanese Yen Struggles as BoJ Decision Looms; US Data in Focus

The Japanese Yen (JPY) edged higher against the US Dollar during the Asian session on Wednesday, but gains remain limited as the currency hovers near a three-month low. Concerns that Japanese authorities may intervene to support the Yen lend it some resilience; however, uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) upcoming rate decision keeps JPY appreciation capped.

Market sentiment suggests the recent loss of parliamentary majority by Japan’s ruling coalition may hinder the BoJ’s ability to tighten policy. The Yen’s upward movement is further limited by a global risk-on environment and a resurgence in US Dollar (USD) demand, with traders awaiting the BoJ’s rate decision and critical US economic data releases this week for new market direction.

Market Movers: Yen’s Struggles Persist as Political and Economic Concerns Grow

Japan’s Economy Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, cautioned that a weak Yen could drive up prices via import costs, potentially squeezing household incomes if wages do not keep pace, which would dampen private consumption. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato added that authorities are closely monitoring currency movements, increasing speculation of potential intervention.

Japan’s political uncertainty adds complexity to the BoJ’s policy path, restraining any significant gains for the Yen amid a favorable risk appetite. The USD remains steady after nearing highs seen since July 30, while the USD/JPY pair holds close to recent peaks despite limited downside in anticipation of central bank announcements.

The BoJ will announce its policy decision at the end of its two-day meeting on Thursday, while key US data releases may provide additional cues on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. Recent robust US data, including Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Index jump to 108.7—a nine-month high—reflect optimism in the economy, offsetting weaker job openings in September.

Technical Outlook: Limited Downside for USD/JPY; Bulls Target a Break Beyond 154.00

From a technical standpoint, last week’s breakout above the 150.65 confluence, marking the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-September decline, suggests potential for further gains. However, recent failures to consolidate beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci level raise caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers near the overbought zone, suggesting a period of consolidation or slight pullback may be needed before additional upside.

Support levels emerge at 153.00, with further potential down to 152.40 and 152.00. Conversely, a breakout beyond the 154.00 threshold could push USD/JPY to test the 154.35-154.40 region, with the psychological 155.00 level in view, and potentially the July peak around 155.20.

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Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Month

Japanese Yen Faces Selling Pressure Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty

Japanese Yen Faces Selling Pressure Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty

The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces challenges to start the week as market participants digest the implications of Japan’s general election results. Meanwhile, the only data on the U.S. docket is the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ Texas Manufacturing Business Index for October. Later in the day, the U.S. Treasury will auction 2-year and 5-year notes, events closely watched by investors for potential impact on yields and the USD.

In a surprising election outcome, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in power since 1955, lost its majority for the first time in 15 years, heightening economic and political uncertainty. According to NHK, the ruling LDP and coalition partner Komeito secured only 215 out of 465 lower house seats, short of the 233 needed for a majority. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) gained significantly, winning 148 seats, up from 98.

Following this development, USD/JPY opened the week with a bullish gap, touching a near three-month high around 154.00 before trading slightly lower at 153.50, marking a 0.7% daily gain. Reflecting broader Yen weakness, EUR/JPY is up over 0.6% at 165.50, and GBP/JPY has climbed 0.7% to 198.70.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed last week with a solid gain, rising more than 0.8% and edging higher toward 104.50 in early Monday trading, supported by positive U.S. stock index futures indicating an improved risk sentiment.

In other markets, EUR/USD extended its downtrend on Friday, marking a fourth consecutive week of losses. The pair holds steady near 1.0800 as the European session begins on Monday. GBP/USD remained in a consolidation phase around 1.2950 after losing recovery momentum on Friday.

Meanwhile, gold saw bullish momentum on Friday, climbing back from a dip below $2,720. XAU/USD remains range-bound early Monday, trading below $2,750 as it struggles to establish a clear directional move.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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XAG/USD Vulnerable, Aiming for $22.20-$22.10 Retest

XAG/USD Vulnerable, Aiming for $22.20-$22.10 Retest

Silver witnessed a fleeting upward movement during the Asian trading session, attempting to breach the pivotal $23.00 level. However, this surge was short-lived, with silver unable to maintain the momentum required to sustain a position above this critical threshold. Delving into the intricacies of this price action, the breach below the $22.85-$22.80 support range signifies a significant shift in market sentiment that leans decidedly bearish. This sentiment is further corroborated by closely examining the oscillators on the daily chart, which appear to signal the potential for further downward movement.

The repercussions of this bearish sentiment set the stage for a testing period for silver as it gears up for a retest of the robust support zone in the $22.20-$22.10 range. In more pessimistic scenarios, the price could venture even lower, extending its downward trajectory to the $21.25 region.

In the event of a shift in momentum favoring the upside, silver would encounter various resistance levels. Initially, surpassing the psychological hurdle at $23.00 would be met with a resistance barrier of around $23.20. Further upward momentum would then contend with the presence of the 200-day Simple Moving Average, a key technical indicator, which is situated within the $23.45-$23.50 range. Beyond this, the 100-day SMA would pose another formidable obstacle at approximately $23.80, closely followed by the psychologically significant $24.00 level.

Should market dynamics and trader sentiment align so that these resistance levels are convincingly breached, it would represent a significant departure from the prevailing negative outlook that currently shrouds XAG/USD. This potential turning point could set the stage for a short-covering rally, propelling silver past the confines of the $24.30-$24.35 range. At this juncture, the coveted target for traders is the psychological and strategically significant level of $25.00, a threshold that corresponds notably with the August monthly swing high.

Attainment of the $25.00 level would constitute a pivotal moment for the market, potentially recalibrating prevailing sentiment from bearish to bullish. Such an achievement would signify renewed optimism among traders, acting as a catalyst for further gains in silver. Thus, market participants will keenly monitor price action around the $25.00 level, recognizing its capacity to redefine the trajectory of XAG/USD in the near term and offer crucial insights into the market’s direction.

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US PCE Data Approaches

WTI Crude Oil Rises Above $87 as Supply Cuts and China’s Recovery Boost Prices

WTI Crude Oil Rises Above $87 as Supply Cuts and China’s Recovery Boost Prices

WTI Crude Oil has surged above $87 per barrel, reaching its highest since November 2022. The rise in prices can be attributed to several factors, including extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as positive economic developments in China.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, both major players in the oil market, have recently announced that they will continue cutting oil production for the rest of the year. This decision has created a sense of supply tightness and supported the upward movement of WTI prices. Saudi Arabia, in particular, will reduce its crude output to approximately 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of 2023.

China’s improving economic conditions have also played a role in boosting WTI prices. As the world’s largest oil importer, any positive signs from China have a significant impact on the market. The country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed a 0.1% year-on-year increase, signaling a decrease in deflation concerns compared to the previous month’s 0.3% drop. This improvement has further bolstered confidence in the oil market.

However, there are potential factors that may limit the upward trajectory of WTI prices. Recent positive economic data from the United States, especially concerning interest rates, could have an impact. Higher interest rates can result in increased borrowing costs, potentially slowing down economic growth and subsequently reducing oil demand.

Oil traders will closely monitor upcoming data releases, such as the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change reports, as well as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). These events have the potential to significantly influence the value of WTI and present opportunities for oil traders to capitalize on market fluctuations.

In summary, WTI Crude Oil has experienced a notable surge, surpassing $87 per barrel, driven by production cuts by major oil exporters and positive economic indicators from China. However, the potential impact of interest rates and upcoming data releases should be closely monitored to determine the future trajectory of WTI prices.

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WTI Holds Steady Near $68.50 Amid US Dollar Strength

WTI surpasses $86.40, eyes on US ISM Services PMI

WTI surpasses $86.40, eyes on US ISM Services PMI

Presently, the price of a particular type of oil known as WTI stands at approximately $86.40 on this Wednesday. It was a bit higher at $88.00 previously, but it has dipped a little since then. The recent surge in the price of WTI can be attributed to the decisions made by two significant countries, namely Saudi Arabia and Russia, who have indicated their intention to reduce their oil production. This announcement has had the effect of driving up the price of WTI in recent weeks.

Both Saudi Arabia and Russia are major players in the global oil market. They produce a lot of oil and sell it to various countries around the world. These countries have now stated that they will continue to decrease the amount of oil they produce until the end of 2023. This news caused the price of WTI to increase significantly over the past few weeks. However, it’s important to note that Saudi Arabia will still be producing around 9 million barrels of oil each day in the coming months. They will review this decision every month to determine whether they should produce more or less oil.

However, there is a factor that has prevented the price of WTI from rising too steeply. The economic data coming from China has not been very favorable. In August, businesses in China that provide services like car maintenance or house cleaning did not experience significant growth. In fact, their growth was the slowest in eight months, according to a report by a company called Caixin. This is noteworthy because China happens to be the largest buyer of oil in the world.

Looking ahead, traders are eagerly anticipating the release of two important reports. One is called the US ISM Services PMI, and the other is the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for the week ending September 1. These reports will provide more insights into the current oil supply and the health of the services sector in the United States. Since the price of WTI is denominated in US dollars, this information holds significant importance for those who trade in the oil market. They will be paying close attention to these reports to gain insights and potentially make decisions about buying or selling oil based on the information they contain.

 

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WTI Nears $73.00 Amidst Rising Tensions

WTI Hovers Below $80 as China Growth Concerns and US Rate Hike Fears Persist

WTI Hovers Below $80 as China Growth Concerns and US Rate Hike Fears Persist

As the trading week unfolds, the Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil benchmark finds itself hovering around the $79.85 mark on Tuesday, revealing a minor upward shift following a pullback from the $80.68 level. The oil market remains ensnared in the grip of investor concerns revolving around the trajectory of China’s economic growth and the looming specter of potential interest rate hikes in the United States, both of which have the potential to impede oil demand and sway WTI prices.

A key driver in the unfolding narrative is the Federal Reserve’s resolute stance on prospective rate hikes, a factor exacerbating uncertainties that play into the undulating path of WTI prices. The recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have reverberated through the market, underscoring the central bank’s readiness to ratchet up interest rates if deemed expedient. Powell’s announcement underscores that any forthcoming rate determinations will be tethered to empirical data. Moreover, Powell accentuated the landscape of robust economic expansion and a labor market characterized by taut conditions, signaling the possibility of a prolonged cycle of tightening measures. However, this trajectory could potentially fetter the upward thrust of WTI prices, given the domino effect of heightened interest rates on escalating borrowing costs, sluggish economic growth, and a consequential dampening of oil demand.

The unfolding scenario is further compounded by mounting unease regarding China’s economic deceleration, a factor assuming particular significance due to China’s stature as a premier global oil importer. The focal point for many observers is the imminent release of China’s Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for August. An underwhelming outcome in this report could likely exert downward pressure on WTI prices, given China’s pivotal role in global oil dynamics.

Concurrently, a counterbalancing influence on the oil market emerges through the prism of supply dynamics. Notably, voluntary production curtailments orchestrated by Saudi Arabia and Russia inject support into the equation. Saudi Arabia’s pronouncement to sustain September production at an approximate rate of 9 million barrels per day, representing a reduction of roughly 1 million barrels from August levels, has the potential to wield a stabilizing impact on prices.

Looking forward, the oil market landscape becomes punctuated by key impending events. One noteworthy juncture is the impending release of China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for August, scheduled to be unveiled on the ensuing Friday. Market projections anticipate a modest rise in the index from 49.2 to 49.3, indicating a potentially delicate economic balance. However, the zenith of this week’s developments hinges on the unveiling of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, also slated for release on Friday. These events emerge as pivotal inflection points with the capability to markedly sway USD-denominated WTI prices. In light of this, astute oil traders are poised to intently parse through these data releases, harnessing insights to strategically navigate trading opportunities linked to the oscillations in WTI prices.

 

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WTI Holds Near $78.60 Amid US Inflation and China Economic Worries

WTI Holds Near $78.60 Amid US Inflation and China Economic Worries

Today, the price of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the key US crude oil benchmark, is holding steady around the $78.60 level. This marks the fourth consecutive day of negative trading as two main factors weighing on the market.

First, there are growing concerns about the potential tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a significant drop of nearly 6 million barrels in crude oil inventories for the week ending August 11, surpassing expectations of a 2.3 million barrel contraction. Despite this decline, crude oil production has been rising since the initial impact of the pandemic, indicating a steady recovery in demand.

However, the recently released minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting highlighted persistent high inflation. Fed officials are acknowledging significant inflation risks that may require further monetary tightening to align inflation with long-term targets. This hawkish stance is capping the upward movement of WTI prices, as higher interest rates can dampen economic activity and oil demand due to increased borrowing costs.

Another cause for concern is the state of China’s economy. Data shows a decline in the Chinese House Price Index for July, raising alarm bells about a potential property crisis. This concern is amplified by the struggles of major developer Country Garden Holdings in meeting debt obligations. Additionally, Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July fell short of expectations, indicating further economic distress in China that could put downward pressure on oil prices.

On a positive note, the tightening supply dynamics could exert upward pressure on WTI prices. Saudi Arabia has announced an extension of its voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day through September. Similarly, Russia is planning to decrease its oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day in September. Recent reports suggest that Saudi Arabia’s oil exports have reached their lowest level since September 2021, dipping below 7 million barrels per day.

Looking ahead, oil traders will closely monitor US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for August, as well as ongoing developments in China’s economic landscape. These factors will significantly influence the price of WTI, guiding trading strategies in response to evolving market conditions.

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WTI Holds Firm Above $82: China’s Issues and US Retail Sales in Focus

WTI Holds Firm Above $82: China’s Issues and US Retail Sales in Focus

The Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price has maintained its position above the $82 mark on the trading landscape, with two major factors shaping its trajectory: concerns over China’s economic challenges and anticipation of US retail sales data.

Amid the economic turmoil caused by the Chinese real estate sector, investors are closely monitoring how these developments might affect global markets. Specifically, Country Garden Holdings Co.’s bond and share price declines have raised alarms, triggering concerns of potential significant defaults within the sector. The broader implications of China’s real estate market instability are magnifying the impact on the WTI price.

Adding to these concerns, China’s recent inflation data has sparked further unease. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July exhibited deflationary signs, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Given that China is one of the world’s largest oil consumers, any economic shifts in the country have direct consequences on global oil demand and prices.

In contrast to these concerns, supply-side factors are exerting their influence. Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend its voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day (bpd) through September suggests a tightening of supply. Additionally, Russia’s plans to reduce its oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September adds to the support for higher WTI prices.

Both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) have displayed optimism for the second half of the year. The IEA projects a demand increase of 2.2 million bpd in 2023, driven by factors like increased air travel, growing oil demand in power generation, and elevated petrochemical activity in China. OPEC, on the other hand, anticipates a production increase of 2.44 million bpd.

In the coming days, the focus will shift to key data releases. The attention of oil traders will be directed towards US Retail Sales figures for July, with expectations of a rise from 0.2% to 0.4%. Additionally, the upcoming releases of the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) Weekly Crude Oil Stock report and the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks for the week ending August 11 will provide further insight into market dynamics. These data points will play a vital role in guiding oil traders as they analyze opportunities related to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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WTI Crude Oil Steadies Around $82.30 Ahead of EIA Report and US Inflation Figures

WTI Crude Oil Steadies Around $82.30 Ahead of EIA Report and US Inflation Figures

In the early European session on Wednesday, WTI, the benchmark for US crude oil, is exhibiting little movement as prices fluctuate within a narrow range of $82.20 to $82.45. The market is grappling with concerns over China’s dwindling demand for oil due to trade dynamics and inflation patterns, which are exerting downward pressure on WTI prices.

The release of Chinese inflation data for July reveals a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), deviating from the previous reading of 0%. Surpassing market expectations of a decline of -0.4%, this slight improvement is encouraging news. Furthermore, the Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, surpassing the anticipated drop of 4.1%.

A significant decline of 18.8% in China’s crude oil imports during July is particularly noteworthy, marking the lowest level since January. This decline is worrisome considering that China stands as the world’s largest consumer of oil.

Conversely, the latest report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides some support for WTI prices. The EIA projects a 1.9% increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2023, an improvement from the previous forecast of 1.5%. According to the report, the recent surge in crude prices can be attributed to Saudi Arabia’s voluntary output restrictions and the growing global demand for oil.

WTI prices have received an additional boost from Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend its one-million-barrel-per-day oil output cut until September, along with Russia’s plan to reduce oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September.

Traders are anxiously awaiting the release of the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change report on Wednesday, covering the week ending August 4. Furthermore, they have their eyes set on key events such as the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) later this week. The analysis of this data will be crucial for traders as it has the potential to significantly impact the value of USD-denominated WTI, creating trading opportunities in the oil market.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, keeping the USD/JPY pair firm around the 147.00 mark during the Asian session. A stronger US Dollar and persistent concerns over rising trade tensions are weighing heavily on the Yen, as markets brace for the impact of US tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1. 

Former US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese imports, coupled with the threat of retaliatory action, has sparked renewed fears over Japan’s economic resilience. The country’s Q1 GDP contracted, real wages in May dropped at their steepest pace in nearly two years, and political uncertainty is rising ahead of the July 20 House of Councillors election. Recent polls suggest the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may struggle to retain its majority, further dampening investor confidence. 

These developments have led traders to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. The combination of domestic headwinds and external pressure is weakening the JPY, while the US Dollar continues to gain on expectations that rising tariffs will stoke inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. 

The Fed’s June decision to hold interest rates steady, along with a strong US jobs report, has reinforced the belief that rate cuts may be delayed until at least October. The FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, will be closely watched for insights into the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets currently anticipate up to 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end. 

Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds 

Technically, USD/JPY’s break and close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) — for the first time since February — signals potential for further gains. Positive momentum on the daily chart supports a move toward the 147.60–147.65 resistance area, with the 148.00 handle, a key June high, in sight. 

On the downside, immediate support lies near 146.50, with the 100-day SMA just below 146.00 acting as a critical pivot. A decisive break below this level could shift momentum in favor of bears, opening room for deeper losses. 

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NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5700 on weaker US PMI data

During the early Asian session on Thursday, the NZD/USD pair was trading slightly higher at 0.5690. The Greenback falls against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as US economic data disappoints. Investors will keenly monitor developments in the rekindled trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. 

The weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) could weigh on the Greenback and generate a tailwind for the pair. The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3.

On the other hand, New Zealand’s fourth-quarter employment report will put the RBNZ on pace to decrease the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% this month. Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday that the country’s unemployment rate increased to 5.1% in Q4, up from 4.8% the previous quarter. This result was a four-year high and exceeded the 25-year average of 4.8%. Rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may decrease interest rates may further impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

“In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% at the February 19 meeting and the policy rate to through around 3.00% over the next 12 months. Bottom line: NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD,” noted Société Générale’s FX analysts. 

On Tuesday, the finance ministry in China unveiled a package of tariffs on various US products such as crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos in a sharp response to an announcement made by US President Donald Trump imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Further, China served notice to several companies including Google for potential sanctions in response to Trump’s tariffs. Any sign of uncertainty or a rising trade war tension may see the China-proxy Kiwi being dragged lower, as China remains one of the major trading partners to New Zealand.

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JPY Recovers Losses vs. USD, Bullish Outlook Intact

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses Against USD; Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

The Japanese yen (JPY) cut some of its intraday losses against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, bringing the USD/JPY pair back below the mid-155.00s during the early European session. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions showed conversations about the possibility of further hikes in interest rates. Furthermore, Tokyo’s core inflation increased at the quickest annual rate in nearly a year, raising expectations of further policy tightening by the BoJ, which supports the JPY.

Beyond monetary policy, narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economies, including the US, alongside a broader risk-off sentiment, provide additional support to the safe-haven JPY. However, concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s newly announced trade tariffs limit the yen’s upside. Meanwhile, the USD remains broadly strong, allowing the USD/JPY pair to maintain its positive momentum for a second consecutive day, ahead of the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI report.

Yen Gains Traction Amid BoJ Rate Hike Bets and Trade War Fears

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, effective Tuesday.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, and China’s foreign ministry all replied quickly, indicating probable retaliation. The US Dollar continues to climb, approaching a two-year high last hit in January, supporting the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

The Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions, released on Monday, showed that policymakers are thinking about additional rate hikes, though this has failed to appreciably lift the JPY.

Board members of the Bank of Japan stressed the need of continuing to raise interest rates if economic conditions and inflation remain stable.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the government is closely monitoring the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the yen amid concerns over potential economic fallout.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reiterated Japan’s commitment to achieving the BoJ’s 2% inflation target while implementing measures to offset rising living costs.

The US-Japan yield spread remains near a multi-week low, which, coupled with risk aversion, could help stabilize the yen in the near term.

Investors now turn their focus to key US economic data, starting with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Near 156.25; Bears in Control Below This Level

From a technical standpoint, last week’s strong rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally and the subsequent upside move favor bullish traders. However, additional gains beyond 156.00 may encounter resistance near last week’s swing high at 156.25. A sustained break above this level could spark a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards:

  • 156.70-156.75 resistance
  • 157.00 psychological mark
  • 157.60 horizontal barrier
  • Potential extension towards 158.00, with an ultimate target at the 158.85-158.90 multi-month high from January 10

Conversely, on the downside:-

  • 155.00 serves as immediate support
  • Below this, watch for key levels at 154.55-154.50 and 154.00
  • A break below the 153.70 January low could accelerate the decline towards 153.30 and eventually 153.00

While the JPY is exhibiting some resilience, the overall trend remains unpredictable, with market participants intently watching economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

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Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rise, Fed Decision Looms

Australian Dollar Slides Amid Rising Odds of RBA Rate Cuts, Fed Decision in Focus

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak for a third consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD), weighed down by softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, matching the previous quarter but missing the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI eased to 2.4% from 2.8% in Q3, below the market forecast of 2.5%. Despite December’s monthly CPI ticking up to 2.5% YoY, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2%-3% target range. Meanwhile, the RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI slowed to 3.2% YoY, its weakest pace in three years, slightly under the anticipated 3.3%.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed confidence that “the worst of the inflation challenge is behind us” and that a “soft landing” is increasingly likely. The cooling inflation strengthens the case for an RBA rate cut in February. The central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing the need for inflation to “sustainably” return to target before considering a rate reduction.

AUD Pressured by Risk Aversion, Trump’s Tariff Threats

The AUD faces additional headwinds from risk-off sentiment following tariff threats by former US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of key commodities, including computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to boost US manufacturing.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm around 108.00 as traders turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, indicate near-certainty that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for guidance on future policy shifts.

Concerns over the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies add another layer of uncertainty. US Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino noted, “A number of White House proposals appear inflationary, which could keep the Fed in check.” Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed universal tariffs on US imports starting at 2.5%, with Trump reportedly favoring even higher rates.

China’s Economic Slowdown Adds Pressure on AUD

The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to China’s economic struggles. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1, missing expectations, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.2 from 52.2. As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s weak data weighs heavily on the AUD.

Despite China’s recent stimulus measures, including a $7.25 billion investment in index products and long-term stock investments, concerns persist. Industrial profits fell 3.3% YoY in 2024, marking a third consecutive year of contraction, driven by weak demand, deflationary pressures, and a prolonged property sector slump.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Turns Bearish Below 0.6250

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6230 on Wednesday after breaking below the ascending channel on the daily chart, signaling a shift toward a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, reinforcing downside momentum.

A decisive break below key support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel strengthens the bearish outlook, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward 0.6131—its lowest level since April 2020. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6256. A rebound above this level could reintroduce a bullish bias, with the next upside target near 0.6360.

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US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

The US dollar strengthened significantly against all major currencies after President Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary reignited concerns about potential tariffs, raising fears that trade policies may return to the forefront. Risk-sensitive currencies, particularly those tied to China, saw sharp declines, while the euro weakened amid speculation that the European Union could soon face tariff pressures. Simultaneously, the Japanese yen took a hit as traders hedged against potential US inflation spikes and rising Treasury yields.

This market turbulence followed a Financial Times report indicating that Scott Bessent, the newly appointed Treasury Department official, supports a phased approach to implementing universal tariffs on US imports. The initial proposal suggests starting with a 2.5% tariff rate. However, President Trump hinted at a much broader scope, potentially targeting a range of imports from steel to semiconductor chips and suggesting higher tariff rates over time.

The administration’s “moderate” proposal involves a gradual increase in tariffs, reaching 20% over eight months in increments of 2.5% per month. This timeline has triggered speculation about more extreme scenarios and raised questions about the global trade concessions needed to halt these measures. Bessent’s approach, which allows businesses time to adjust, could also spark a rush of imports and exports to avoid higher future costs.

Amid these developments, financial markets are grappling with the potential outcomes. Traders are assessing whether the proposed tariff measures are fully priced in and evaluating the likelihood of de-escalation through negotiation.

On the positive side, any concessions or agreements that delay or reduce tariffs could stabilize markets. However, the risks of escalating tariffs, particularly if negotiations fail, remain a significant concern. Higher tariffs could disrupt global trade and have far-reaching implications for currency valuations.

While we initially favored long positions on the dollar, the unfolding tariff narrative has introduced significant uncertainty. Staying prepared for sudden shifts in policy and market dynamics is now crucial as the situation continues to evolve.

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Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) ended its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the AUD/USD pair trading flat following the release of mixed Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. As a close trade partner, Australia’s economy is heavily influenced by China’s economic performance.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, down from 50.1 in December, missing market expectations. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 from the previous month’s 52.2. These weaker-than-expected figures suggest a slowdown in China’s economic recovery, weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.

Despite fresh stimulus measures from China aimed at revitalizing its equity markets, the AUD struggled to gain momentum. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a second round of long-term stock investment pilot programs valued at 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). However, these measures have done little to alleviate investor concerns about China’s economic challenges.

Risk Aversion Rises Amid Trump’s Trade Tariff Push

Broader market sentiment took a hit as reports emerged that US President Donald Trump’s advisers are pushing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February 1, bypassing negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s willingness to move swiftly on tariffs follows similar actions taken against Colombia, raising fears of escalating trade tensions and dampening demand for riskier assets like the Australian Dollar.

Adding to the negative outlook, China’s Industrial Profits declined by 3.3% year-over-year in 2024 to CNY 7,431.05 billion, marking the third consecutive year of contraction. This downturn highlights ongoing economic headwinds, including weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property sector.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Bullish Setup

The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6290 on Monday, showing signs of upward momentum within an ascending channel on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 50, reflecting mild optimism in the market.

On the upside, the pair could retest the psychological resistance level at 0.6300, with the next target near the channel’s upper boundary around 0.6350.

Support levels are found at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6265, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6254. A stronger support lies near the channel’s lower boundary around 0.6240, which could act as a safety net in case of a downside correction.

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NZD/USD Struggles

NZD/USD Struggles Below 0.5700 Amid Trump’s Tariff Plans and Dovish RBNZ Expectations

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading near 0.5675 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces headwinds due to uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China and the dovish outlook of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicated a continued decline in underlying inflation, strengthening expectations of additional rate cuts by the RBNZ. Swap markets now estimate a nearly 90% chance of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut on February 19, building on the two cuts already implemented in this cycle. The RBNZ is projected to deliver a total of 100 bps in rate cuts through the remainder of 2025.

Meanwhile, the downside for the pair could be capped by recent comments from Trump. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump called for immediate interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” Trump said.

Investors are now closely watching for further details on Trump’s tariff policies, alongside key US economic data releases. The flash US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for January will be a key focus later on Friday, along with the release of US Existing Home Sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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