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USD/CAD Holds Near One-Week Low

USD/CAD Falters Below 1.3400, Stays Under Recent Multi-Week Peak

USD/CAD Falters Below 1.3400, Stays Under Recent Multi-Week Peak

The USD/CAD currency pair experienced a slight uptick, nearing the 1.3400 level as the European session commenced on Wednesday. Despite this increase, the pair remained just shy of the multi-week peak it had achieved on the preceding day, Tuesday.

The strength of the US Dollar is largely attributed to the robust yields of US Treasury bonds, which have been sustaining near a three-week apex since last Friday. Currently, the 10-year US government bond yield is staying firm above the 4.0% mark. This higher yield mirrors a shift in market sentiment, indicating a lessened expectation for a forceful policy loosening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Such a financial landscape bolsters the US Dollar, providing a supportive backdrop for the USD/CAD currency pair.

Contrastingly, the pair’s upward trajectory is somewhat restrained by a continued interest in Crude Oil purchases, spurred by various supply-related anxieties. A series of geopolitical escalations in the Red Sea region, coupled with a halt in production at Libya’s most significant oil field, and a notable decrease in the US’s crude oil stocks, are key factors in this trend. These elements collectively prop up Crude Oil prices, which in turn benefits the Canadian Dollar (Loonie), given its status as a commodity-linked currency. Consequently, this dynamic imposes a ceiling on the potential gains for the USD/CAD pair.

Investors and traders are displaying a sense of caution, anticipating the forthcoming US consumer inflation data scheduled for release on Thursday. This Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to shed light on the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves, particularly concerning the timing of the first rate cut. The data from this report is poised to significantly impact the US Dollar’s valuation and thereby influence the future course of the USD/CAD pair.

In the interim, with no major economic announcements from either the United States or Canada on Wednesday, the direction of the US Dollar is likely to be guided predominantly by the movements in US bond yields. This factor remains a crucial determinant of the demand for the US Dollar. In parallel, the dynamics of Oil prices will also be closely watched by market participants, offering them opportunities for short-term trading.

Considering this complex mix of fundamentals, it is projected that the USD/CAD pair will persist in its current range-bound pattern. This trend is particularly expected in the lead-up to the key US inflation data release, an event that carries significant potential to sway market dynamics.

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GBP/USD Dips to Around 1.2710 Following

GBP/USD Dips to Around 1.2710 Following Recent Rises Amid Better Risk Sentiment

GBP/USD Dips to Around 1.2710 Following Recent Rises Amid Better Risk Sentiment

The British pound (GBP) retreated slightly to 1.2710 against the US dollar (USD) after recent gains bolstered by an improved risk appetite, halting its winning streak from Wednesday. This shift comes amidst mixed economic signals from the United States, affecting the USD’s performance and Treasury bond yields.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuated around 102.40, exhibiting a slight negative bias. This trend is likely influenced by a decrease in short-term US Treasury yields, with the 2-year bond’s yield dropping to 4.38%.

On Friday, the US dollar saw volatile trading driven by mixed economic reports. Employment figures were a bright spot, with Nonfarm Payrolls for December rising to 216K—outperforming both the anticipated 170K and the previous 173K. Yet, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported a deceleration in the services sector, with the Services PMI falling to 50.6, below both the expected 52.6 and the prior 52.7 reading.

Thomas Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, noted a consistent softening in the US labor market, suggesting a rebound is unlikely. Meanwhile, Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, highlighted the need for caution in monetary policy, implying that rate hikes shouldn’t be hastily discounted despite recent financial easing.

In the UK, positive economic indicators have bolstered the pound. Improvements in Consumer Credit and a rise in the Services PMI indicated by the S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI for December suggest a healthier economic condition.

However, the GBP faces downward pressure amid a bleak economic outlook. The Bank of England (BoE) is caught between high inflation and looming recession risks. Corporate leaders in the UK are pressing the BoE for swift interest rate cuts to aid the faltering economy, a sentiment echoed by the Institute of Directors Economic Confidence Index, which noted a decline in optimism among business leaders.

Investors are now looking ahead to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales data due Tuesday and Manufacturing Production figures on Friday for further insights into the UK’s economic trajectory.

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GBP/USD Ascends Towards 1.2700 Prior

GBP/USD Ascends Towards 1.2700 Prior to US Nonfarm Payrolls Announcement

GBP/USD Ascends Towards 1.2700 Prior to US Nonfarm Payrolls Announcement

The GBP/USD exchange rate has been on an upward trajectory, reaching heights around 1.2690, as market activities ramp up during the Friday Asian trading session. This marks the third consecutive day of gains for the Pound, which has benefited from a streak of favorable economic reports from the United Kingdom. The rise, however, has been somewhat restrained by parallel positive economic releases from the United States.

In the UK, a surge in consumer credit was observed, with individuals’ borrowing increasing to £2.005 billion in November, up from a revised figure of £1.411 billion. Economic indicators such as the S&P Global/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December also painted an optimistic picture, climbing to 52.1 from a previous value of 51.7. The Services PMI followed suit, advancing to 53.4 from 52.7.

Yet, the British Pound is not without its challenges. It faces potential headwinds due to a broadly pessimistic economic outlook. Business leaders across the UK have been vocally pressing the Bank of England for prompt interest rate cuts to provide a lifeline to the weakening economy. This sentiment is echoed in the Institute of Directors Economic Confidence Index, which highlights a persistent erosion in optimism from British directors about the country’s economic future over the next year.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the strength of the dollar against a basket of currencies, has remained relatively stable after experiencing some losses, currently sitting around 102.40. Lower Treasury yields in the US could apply downward pressure on the dollar; the 2-year and 10-year US bond yields are at 4.37% and 3.99%, respectively.

Support for the US Dollar emerged following the release of promising employment figures. The ADP Employment Change for December reported a robust addition of 164,000 jobs, significantly exceeding both the prior figure of 101,000 and market forecasts of 115,000. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims showed a decrease to 202,000, defying expectations and indicating a resilient job market. Despite this, the S&P Global Composite PMI indicated a marginal dip in business activity, with a reading of 50.9, just below the expected 51.0.

Investors and traders are now keenly focused on the upcoming US labor market reports, which will include pivotal data such as the Average Hourly Earnings and Nonfarm Payrolls for December. The forthcoming ISM Services PMI will also provide a snapshot of the health of the US services sector, potentially influencing market sentiment and the direction of the GBP/USD currency pair.

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EUR/GBP Stays Near 0.8670 Before German

EUR/GBP Stays Near 0.8670 Before German Employment Data Release

EUR/GBP Stays Near 0.8670 Before German Employment Data Release

During the early European trading hours on Wednesday, the EUR/GBP pair is exhibiting a narrow trading pattern, oscillating between 0.8665 and 0.8675. Market participants are keenly awaiting the release of German employment statistics for December, with the unemployment rate projected to stabilize at 5.9%. As of the current moment, the pair is hovering around 0.8670, marking a slight decline of 0.02% for the day.

This comes against the backdrop of a weakening UK manufacturing sector. In December 2023, the UK’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) recorded a downturn, registering at 46.2, a slight drop from its previous 46.4 and falling short of market expectations. This downturn is part of a broader negative sentiment surrounding the British economy, amid concerns of a looming technical recession. Such economic pressures have exerted selling momentum on the British Pound (GBP), providing a comparative advantage to the EUR/GBP pair.

Conversely, the Eurozone has shown a marginally positive trend in its manufacturing sector. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI for the region slightly increased to 44.4 in December 2023, up from November’s 44.2, surpassing the anticipated figures. Similarly, the German Manufacturing PMI demonstrated an unexpected rise, reaching 43.3 in December, improving from the prior 43.1. These indicators suggest a relative strengthening in the Eurozone’s manufacturing activities, contributing positively to the Euro’s performance against the GBP.

As traders and analysts look forward, the release of German employment figures, including both the Unemployment Rate and Unemployment Change, is highly anticipated later on the same Wednesday. These data will provide fresh insights into the health of Europe’s largest economy and potentially influence the EUR/GBP exchange rate. Further, the forthcoming Thursday will see the release of critical Eurozone economic reports, including the HCOB Composite PMI, Services PMI, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December. These comprehensive datasets are expected to shed light on the overall economic environment of the Eurozone and could offer significant directional cues for the EUR/GBP currency pair.

Overall, with the impending release of key economic data from both the UK and the Eurozone, market participants remain vigilant. The EUR/GBP pair’s movement is likely to reflect the interplay of these economic narratives, with any significant deviations in data poised to induce volatility in this cross-currency relationship.

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GBP/USD Remains Over 1.2800 as USD Weakens, Eyes on US Jobless Claims

GBP/USD Remains Over 1.2800 as USD Weakens, Eyes on US Jobless Claims

The British Pound (GBP) maintains its strength against the US Dollar (USD), persistently trading above the pivotal 1.2800 level amidst a period of USD softening, with market participants keenly awaiting the release of US jobless claims data for further direction.

During the Asian trading session on Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair saw a continued ascendancy beyond the 1.2800 threshold. A combination of reduced inflationary pressures within the American economy and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish stance has contributed to the depreciation of the US Dollar, thus favoring a rise in the GBP/USD exchange rate. At the time of this update, the pair is valued at 1.2810, marking a slight increase of 0.09% from the previous close.

Investor sentiment towards the Greenback is currently subdued, with the market largely convinced that the Fed is on the brink of implementing rate cuts. The CME Fedwatch tool evidences this belief, showing a more than 88% likelihood of rate reductions commencing in March 2024, and anticipates over 150 basis points in cuts throughout the next calendar year.

Conversely, the Bank of England (BoE) has signaled that rate decreases are not imminent within the United Kingdom. The BoE has upheld its interest rate at the current 5.25% during three consecutive meetings, suggesting a more cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments. Despite the central bank’s stance that discussions of rate cuts are premature, financial markets are betting on a potential reduction in rates by May of the following year.

The trading atmosphere is expected to be less vigorous due to the holiday season, which may influence the GBP/USD pair’s volatility in the lead-up to the New Year. Significant economic data releases are on the horizon, which will likely impact currency fluctuations. Later on Thursday, the United States will disclose its Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Trade Balance figures, and November’s Pending Home Sales statistics. Following this, on Friday, the United Kingdom’s Nationwide Housing Prices and the US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index will be published, providing further insight into the economic health of both nations.

Investors and traders alike will be closely monitoring these economic indicators, as they provide crucial information on the labor market and housing sector’s health, both of which are significant factors in the central banks’ decision-making processes regarding interest rates. The outcomes of these reports could either reinforce or challenge the current market consensus on the direction of monetary policy in both the US and the UK, thereby influencing the GBP/USD currency dynamics as the financial year draws to a close. 

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Focus Shifts to FOMC Minutes

EUR/GBP Regains Ground, Nearing Mid-0.8600 Range in Response to UK Inflation Data

EUR/GBP Regains Ground, Nearing Mid-0.8600 Range in Response to UK Inflation Data

The European currency pair EUR/GBP witnessed a modest rebound in the early hours of the European market session on Wednesday, as it climbed towards the mid-0.8600 territory, a notable recovery from its recent slump. The upswing in the pair was primarily fueled by a weaker-than-expected set of inflation figures from the UK, which put downward pressure on the British Pound and conversely offered a boost to the EUR/GBP exchange rate. As trading progressed, the pair was observed to be exchanging hands near 0.8645, marking an increase of 0.21% within the day’s trading activities.

In a surprising turn, the UK’s latest inflation report, disseminated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), recorded a month-over-month (MoM) Consumer Price Index (CPI) decline of 0.2% in November, deviating from the flat rate previously reported and falling short of the modest 0.1% rise forecasted. On an annual basis, inflation climbed by 3.9%, a significant drop from the preceding value of 4.6% and below the anticipated consensus of 4.4%. A more focused view on the Core CPI, which strips out the more volatile components such as food and energy prices, reflected a deceleration to 5.1% in November from October’s 5.7%, not aligning with the market’s projected figure of 5.6%. This softer inflation outlook led to the Sterling losing ground against the Euro, providing momentum for the EUR/GBP currency pair.

Further complicating the monetary landscape, Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), conveyed on Tuesday that the institution had not charted a fixed trajectory for interest rate adjustments, emphasizing the need for a continued restrictive policy stance to manage inflationary pressures effectively.

Adding to the broader economic context, data published by Eurostat revealed that the Eurozone experienced weaker inflation in November, attributed mainly to declining energy prices. Despite this easing, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), cautioned that inflationary pressures could intensify in December, spurred by colder weather conditions leading to increased energy demand and higher prices. The ECB also acknowledged that the evolving challenges posed by climate change would inevitably complicate the monetary policy framework.

On the policy front, ECB policymaker Bostjan Vasle communicated that a proper evaluation of the bank’s policy direction would require time extending at least until the forthcoming spring, deeming any current market anticipations of interest rate reductions in March or April as premature.

Market participants are poised to closely monitor upcoming financial releases, including the Eurozone’s Current Account and October’s Construction Output data. Additionally, remarks from ECB’s Chief Economist Philip Lane, who is scheduled to speak later on Wednesday, will be scrutinized for insights that could influence the EUR/GBP trading dynamics. 

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EUR/USD Holds Near 1.0600 as US Dollar Weakens on Profit-Taking

EUR/USD Maintains Modest Increase Near 1.0900, Awaiting German IFO Report

EUR/USD Maintains Modest Increase Near 1.0900, Awaiting German IFO Report

Rewrite this news and expand to 400  words: EUR/USD Maintains Modest Increase Near 1.0900, Awaiting German IFO Report

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The major pair remains capped under 1.1000, the key barrier, and currently trades near 1.0900 amid the rebound of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and weaker Eurozone data. Investors will take more cues from the German IFO survey for fresh impetus on Monday.

The downturn in eurozone business activity surprisingly fell in December and indicated the bloc’s economy is almost certainly in recession. The preliminary Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI dropped to 47.0 in December from November’s print of 47.6, below the market consensus of 48.0. The figure registered the seventh consecutive month below the 50 level, separating growth from contraction.

Furthermore, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in worse than expected, dropping to 44.2 in December, while the Services PMI fell to 48.1 from 48.7 in the previous reading, missing the estimation of 49.0. The data suggested that the Eurozone economy is likely to contract in the fourth quarter, contrary to the ECB’s projections. This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the Euro (EUR) and acts as a headwind to the EUR/USD pair.

Across the pond, the US S&P Global Composite PMI grew at the fastest pace in five months, rising to 51.0 in December from 50.7 in the previous reading. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI fell to the lowest level in four months, easing from 49.4 to 48.2 in December. The Services PMI rose to 51.3 in December from 50.8 in November.

On Sunday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee stated that it’s too early to declare victory over the inflation battle, and the decisions on rate cuts will be dependent on economic data.

Moving on, the German IFO surveys will be released and are expected to show a modest improvement. Later this week, the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for November will be due on Tuesday, and the German Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Wednesday. On the US docket, the Census Bureau will release the housing data, including Building Permits and Housing Starts on Tuesday.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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EUR/USD Nears 1.0550 as Safe-Haven Demand Limits Gains

EUR/USD Nears 1.0550 but Faces Pressure Amid Safe-Haven Demand

EUR/USD Nears 1.0550 but Faces Pressure Amid Safe-Haven Demand

The EUR/USD pair has edged higher, trading around 1.0550 during Thursday’s Asian session, following losses in the previous session. However, upside momentum remains limited as safe-haven flows gain strength due to escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

According to Reuters, Ukraine deployed British Storm Shadow cruise missiles in a strike against Russia on Wednesday, escalating the conflict and drawing warnings from Moscow. Russian officials have cautioned that using Western weapons to target Russian territory far from the border could significantly heighten the scale of the conflict.

On the monetary policy front, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras noted that the Eurozone is approaching its 2% inflation target. Speaking to Bloomberg, Stournaras emphasized the importance of ensuring policymakers sustain progress toward this goal. Meanwhile, the EU Financial Stability Review highlighted growing vulnerabilities due to geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainties, and global trade disputes, which increase the risk of economic shocks.

Since June, the ECB has enacted three rate cuts to address slowing growth, as inflation edges closer to target levels. However, weaker economic prospects have led to downward revisions in growth forecasts. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, with lower odds of a more aggressive reduction.

In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) has gained support from cautious tones expressed by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Boston Fed President Susan Collins advocated for a measured approach to interest rate adjustments to avoid policy missteps. Similarly, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman emphasized that inflation remains persistently high and urged careful consideration in future policy moves.

The EUR/USD pair remains caught between diverging monetary policy expectations and the heightened influence of geopolitical risks.

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USD/CAD Holds Near One-Week Low

USD/CAD Holds Near One-Week Low, Trades Range-Bound Above Mid-1.3900s

USD/CAD Holds Near One-Week Low, Trades Range-Bound Above Mid-1.3900s

The USD/CAD pair has found support near the mid-1.3900s, marking a one-week low during Wednesday’s Asian session. However, the pair struggles to gain upward momentum, pausing this week’s pullback from its highest level since May 2020. Mixed fundamental signals keep bullish traders cautious.

Canadian Inflation and BoC Outlook
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose more than expected to 2.0% in October, prompting a recalibration of market expectations for a significant rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in December. This has provided some support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), offsetting pressure on the USD/CAD pair. However, subdued crude oil prices continue to cap the Loonie’s gains, limiting its appreciation.

Crude Oil Dynamics
While fears of supply disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict persist, crude oil prices remain constrained by signs of increased U.S. stockpiles. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a larger-than-expected build of 4.75 million barrels in U.S. inventories last week, indicating ample supply and dampening oil’s recent recovery from a two-month low.

U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields
On the U.S. side, a resurgence in dip-buying for the U.S. Dollar (USD) offers support to the USD/CAD pair. Expectations that U.S. fiscal policies under President-elect Donald Trump could stimulate economic growth and fuel inflation have bolstered U.S. Treasury yields, enhancing USD demand. This dynamic limits the pair’s downside potential.

Upcoming Market Catalysts
Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members for insights into the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. Additionally, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official crude oil inventory data, which could impact oil prices and generate near-term trading opportunities for the USD/CAD pair.

In the absence of clear directional drivers, the USD/CAD pair is likely to remain range-bound in the short term, with traders focusing on incoming data and policy signals for further cues.

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EUR/USD Holds Near 1.0600 as US Dollar Weakens on Profit-Taking

EUR/USD Hovers Near 1.0600 as US Dollar Retreats on Profit-Taking

EUR/USD Hovers Near 1.0600 as US Dollar Retreats on Profit-Taking

The EUR/USD pair remains steady with a positive bias around the 1.0600 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair’s upward momentum appears supported by a softer US Dollar (USD), which is undergoing profit-taking after its recent rally.

Despite the USD’s pullback, its downside remains limited due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Powell emphasized the economy’s resilience, a robust labor market, and persistent inflation pressures, cautioning that the Fed sees no urgency to cut interest rates. Market participants are now awaiting further insights from Fed officials later this week regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

The USD could also regain strength as investors expect the incoming Trump administration to implement tax cuts and higher tariffs—policies that may drive inflation, potentially slowing the pace of Fed rate cuts.

On the European side, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde highlighted structural challenges in the region. Speaking on Monday, Lagarde called for a consolidation of resources in areas such as defense and climate, citing stagnating productivity growth and increasing global fragmentation into competitive blocs. She noted that Europe lags behind the US and China in innovation and productivity, with barriers such as a fragmented digital market and insufficient venture capital hindering technological progress.

Looking ahead, traders are focused on key economic data. The Eurozone’s October Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is due for release on Tuesday, followed by US Building Permits and Housing Starts data during the North American session. These reports could provide further direction for EUR/USD in the near term.

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EUR/USD Holds Steady Ahead of ECB Lagarde’s Speech

EUR/USD Holds Steady Ahead of ECB Lagarde’s Speech

EUR/USD Holds Steady Ahead of ECB Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair remains stable, trading slightly above the psychological support level of 1.0500 at the start of the week. The currency pair consolidates as the US Dollar (USD) rally pauses after hitting a fresh annual high. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against six major currencies, is seeking fresh catalysts to sustain its upward momentum above the key resistance level of 107.00.

Analyst Outlook on the USD

Capital Economics analysts noted, “While a period of consolidation looks likely in the near term, we have revised up our forecasts for the US Dollar and now project a further 5% appreciation by the end of 2025.” They attribute this outlook to expectations that President-elect Donald Trump will advance his proposed tariff policies and that the U.S. economy will continue to outperform its major counterparts.

Policy Uncertainty and Fed Perspective

Investors are closely monitoring how Trump’s policy agenda might influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary decisions, particularly for the December meeting and beyond. However, Fed officials have refrained from speculating on the economic implications of these policies. Speaking at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked, “It’s too early to reach judgments here. We don’t really know what policies will be put in place.”

On the interest rate outlook, Powell stated that the economy is not signaling an urgent need for aggressive rate cuts. He reiterated that inflation is moving sustainably toward the Fed’s 2% target, aligning with their neutral rate goals.

Key Data to Watch This Week

Market participants will focus on the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for November, set to be released on Thursday. This report will provide insights into the current state of private business activity and gauge the impact of Trump’s election victory on business sentiment.

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EUR/USD Nears 1.0550 After Rebounding from Yearly Lows

EUR/USD Nears 1.0550 After Rebounding from Yearly Lows

EUR/USD Nears 1.0550 After Rebounding from Yearly Lows

The EUR/USD pair has broken its five-day losing streak, trading close to 1.0540 during the Asian session on Friday. This recovery appears to stem from a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) following recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell noted that the US economy has shown “remarkable resilience,” providing the Fed with the flexibility to gradually reduce interest rates.

In October, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.4% year-over-year, up from a revised 1.9% in September (initially 1.8%) and slightly above market expectations of 2.3%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose by 3.1% YoY, modestly surpassing the anticipated 3.0%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, has slipped from its yearly peak of 107.06 reached on Thursday, partly due to a slowdown in risk trades. At present, the DXY is around 106.80.

On the European front, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel emphasized on Thursday that interest rate changes should remain the ECB’s primary policy instrument, with bond purchases and forward guidance used more selectively.

Minutes from the ECB’s October Monetary Policy Meeting reveal a growing openness to potential rate cuts. However, ECB officials remain cautious about inflationary pressures within the Eurozone, particularly due to strong wage growth and lagging labor productivity. The ECB underscored the importance of further data before making any policy adjustments.

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EUR/USD Approaches Yearly Lows Near 1.0550 Ahead of Eurozone

EUR/USD Approaches Yearly Lows Near 1.0550 Ahead of Eurozone Q3 GDP and US PPI Reports

EUR/USD Approaches Yearly Lows Near 1.0550 Ahead of Eurozone Q3 GDP and US PPI Reports

EUR/USD continues its downward trend for the fifth consecutive day, trading near 1.0550 during Thursday’s Asian session, hitting new yearly lows. The pair’s decline is primarily driven by the strengthening US Dollar (USD), fueled by “Trump trades.”

Investors are now awaiting Thursday’s release of the Eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the third quarter. The quarter-over-quarter GDP is expected to confirm a preliminary growth rate of 0.4%, while year-over-year growth is projected at a modest 0.9%, reflecting the region’s subdued economic activity.

Attention will also turn to European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, who is scheduled to speak at the Choiseul Sovereignty Awards 2024 ceremony in Paris. Across the Atlantic, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion titled “Global Perspectives,” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major peers, holds steady around 106.60, its highest level since November 2023, bolstered by rising US Treasury yields. Currently, the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields stand at 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively.

In recent data, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-over-year in October, aligning with market expectations after a 2.4% increase in the prior month. Monthly CPI remained steady at 0.2% as forecasted, while core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, met expectations, holding at 0.3% MoM and 3.3% on an annual basis.

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EUR/USD Drops Near 1.0600 Ahead of US Inflation Data

EUR/USD Drops Near 1.0600 Ahead of US Inflation Data

EUR/USD Drops Near 1.0600 Ahead of US Inflation Data

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trajectory on Wednesday, hovering just above the 1.0600 mark during Asian trading. This marks the fourth consecutive day of losses for the Euro, with downward momentum driven largely by a strengthening US Dollar (USD).

The recent pressure on the EUR/USD is primarily due to the resilience of the USD. Anticipation around US fiscal policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump—such as increased government spending and incentives for investment—could boost economic activity and labor demand. However, this economic growth may also heighten inflation risks.

On Tuesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed confidence in the Federal Reserve’s efforts to combat transitory inflation. However, he noted that it is still too soon to declare complete success and indicated that the Fed would wait for more clarity on Trump’s policies before estimating their economic impact.

Market participants are now looking to Wednesday’s US inflation data for additional direction on policy. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to increase by 2.6% year-over-year in October, while the core CPI is expected to rise by 3.3%.

Attention will then shift to the EU’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report on Thursday, where third-quarter GDP growth is expected to confirm a preliminary estimate of 0.4% QoQ. The year-over-year GDP growth forecast is a modest 0.9% for Q3, underscoring weak economic performance in the region.

A recent study from the London School of Economics and Political Science suggests that implementing a 10% tariff on all imported goods, as Trump has advocated, could reduce the EU’s GDP by 0.1%. This potential slowdown may add further pressure on the Euro relative to the USD.

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China’s February New Bank Loans Decrease Beyond Expectations, Hitting Record Low Lending Growth

China’s February New Bank Loans Decrease Beyond Expectations, Hitting Record Low Lending Growth

In China, new bank lending in February experienced a sharper decline than anticipated from a record high in January, as the central bank continues efforts to stimulate the country’s sluggish economic growth and counter deflationary trends.

According to Reuters’ calculations based on People’s Bank of China data, Chinese banks issued 1.45 trillion yuan ($201.5 billion) in new yuan loans in February, a significant drop from January and below the expectations of analysts. Year-over-year growth of outstanding yuan loans slowed to a record low of 10.1%, compared to 10.4% in January, and fell short of the projected 10.2%.

The decrease in February’s lending was expected as Chinese banks typically issue more loans at the beginning of the year to attract high-quality customers and gain market share. Additionally, the Lunar New Year holiday, which occurred in February this year as opposed to late January in 2023, likely impacted lending activity.

Analysts had forecasted new yuan loans for February to decrease to 1.50 trillion yuan, down from 4.92 trillion yuan in the previous month and against 1.81 trillion yuan a year earlier.

ING analysts noted that aggregate financing and new loans were weaker than expected due to limited high-quality borrowing demand, indicating a modest immediate impact from the February cut in the required reserve ratio (RRR). Despite signals of further RRR cuts from the PBOC, a lack of high-quality borrowing demand might reduce the effectiveness of these measures in stimulating the economy.

In the first two months of 2024, Chinese banks made 6.37 trillion yuan in new yuan loans, according to central bank data. Household loans, mostly mortgages, contracted by 590.7 billion yuan in February, after an increase of 980.1 billion yuan in January. Corporate loans also decreased to 1.57 trillion yuan from 3.86 trillion yuan.

China’s economic growth target for 2024 is around 5%, a goal many analysts consider challenging without significant additional stimulus. Both consumer and corporate confidence have remained weak since a post-pandemic upsurge faded early in 2023.

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng stated there is still room for RRR cuts, following a substantial 50-basis point reduction effective from February 5. The central bank also announced a major cut in a key mortgage reference rate last month to support the property market and the overall economy.

Broad M2 money supply grew by 8.7% year-over-year, slightly below the 8.8% forecast but consistent with the pace in January.

Total social financing (TSF) growth, a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, decelerated to 9.0% in February from a year earlier, down from 9.5% in January. With China setting the 2024 quota for local government special bond issuance at 3.9 trillion yuan and planning to issue 1 trillion yuan in special ultra-long-term treasury bonds, increased fiscal support is expected to boost government borrowing. However, weak private sector credit demand continues to pose significant challenges.

TSF, which includes various forms of financing beyond conventional bank lending, fell to 1.56 trillion yuan in February from 6.5 trillion yuan in January, falling short of the expected 2.22 trillion yuan.

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Major Currency Pairs Remain Stable Before Crucial US Economic Data Release

Major Currency Pairs Remain Stable Before Crucial US Economic Data Release

Throughout the latter half of the week, major currency pairs have been exhibiting fluctuations within narrow margins. Following a slight downturn on Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) Index has maintained a subdued profile, hovering just below the 103.00 mark in Thursday’s European morning. Market participants are keenly awaiting the release of the US producer inflation and retail sales data for February, which are poised to offer fresh directional impetus.

Concurrently, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield has seen a resurgence, crossing back over the 4.2% threshold for the first time in more than a week. As of early Thursday, the yield steadies at around 4.2%, while US stock index futures exhibit a mixed performance, reflecting the volatility observed in Wednesday’s market.

This week, the US Dollar’s performance has varied across different major currencies. Notably, the Dollar recorded its strongest performance against the Japanese Yen. A recent report from Reuters highlighted that Japan’s largest industrial union, UA Zensen, announced record-high pay increases by 231 firms since 2013. In response, the USD/JPY pair has been oscillating within a tight range below the 148.00 level, closing almost unchanged on Wednesday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) experienced a modest upswing on Wednesday, breaking a two-day losing streak and remaining consolidated just above 0.6600 early Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) gained some ground and ended Wednesday on a positive note. However, the pair began to retreat slightly after encountering resistance near 1.0950. In the absence of significant data releases from the Eurozone, the market’s focus will likely shift to any statements from European Central Bank (ECB) officials.

The British Pound (GBP/USD) is experiencing difficulty in establishing a clear direction, continuing its lateral movement around the 1.2800 mark in Thursday’s European trading session.

In the commodities sector, gold managed to recoup most of its losses from Tuesday during Wednesday’s session. However, it struggled to gain further upward momentum in the face of increasing US yields. At last observation, Gold (XAU/USD) was trading marginally lower, just below $2,170.

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Australian Dollar Struggles as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of US PPI Release

Australian Dollar Gains Support from Rising ASX 200 Despite Stronger US Dollar

Australian Dollar Gains Support from Rising ASX 200 Despite Stronger US Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is showing signs of consolidation, hinting at a potential recovery from its recent losses as of Wednesday. This comes amidst mixed market signals, including a positive performance from the S&P/ASX 200 Index and contrasting pressures from lower commodity prices.

For the second consecutive day, the S&P/ASX 200 Index has been on the rise, mirroring the overnight gains observed on Wall Street. This upward trend in the Australian stock market is a reflection of investor confidence and a generally positive economic outlook, which typically supports the strength of the national currency. However, the Australian Dollar faces countervailing pressures due to a decline in commodity prices. Australia, being a major exporter of natural resources, is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in these markets. Lower commodity prices can have a dampening effect on the AUD, as they may reduce the country’s trade revenue and economic prospects.

The current investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic, spurred by the release of encouraging Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States (US). This optimism is, however, tempered by the recent performance of the AUD against the US Dollar (USD). On Tuesday, the AUD suffered losses against the USD, driven largely by a stronger-than-expected US CPI report. The report has diminished the likelihood of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstering the Greenback. This strengthened USD poses potential challenges for the AUD/USD currency pair, as a robust US Dollar often means weaker performance for other major currencies.

Traders and investors are now likely to redirect their focus towards upcoming economic indicators from the US, particularly the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data, which are scheduled for release on Thursday. These data points are significant as they provide insights into the health of the US economy. The Core PPI offers a measure of the average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding food and energy, which are more volatile. Retail Sales data, on the other hand, is a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a substantial portion of overall economic activity in the US.

The outcomes of these reports could have significant implications for the Fed’s monetary policy decisions, and consequently, influence the AUD/USD exchange rate dynamics. As investors and market analysts anticipate these releases, there is an air of cautious observation in the market, with stakeholders keen to understand how these developments will shape the near-term trajectory of the Australian Dollar in relation to the US Dollar and the broader global economy.

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XRP Poised for Weekly Drop as Investors Pocket $370 Million in Profits

XRP Poised for Weekly Drop as Investors Pocket $370 Million in Profits

The price of XRP, a popular altcoin, experienced a downturn, reaching $0.62 on Friday. Despite this drop, it managed to stay above the crucial $0.60 mark, a psychologically significant level for traders and investors. This recent price movement has been primarily attributed to increased profit-taking activities among XRP holders. Heading towards the week’s close, XRP seems poised to end with a slight loss, marking a mild correction following its recent price surge. This shift in market behavior comes just ahead of a significant event – the anticipated March 22 deadline in the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit, a key factor influencing the altcoin’s market dynamics.

Since the beginning of March 2024, XRP holders have reportedly cashed out profits amounting to around $370 million. This substantial withdrawal of profits is one of the primary drivers behind the recent price adjustments. On-chain data provided by Santiment has highlighted consistent profit-taking by XRP holders throughout the month, especially notable as the altcoin reached its monthly peak of $0.6685 on Tuesday.

Further analysis reveals an uptick in on-chain activity for XRP. Notable metrics showing this increase include a rise in Active Addresses and a surge in large transactions, specifically those valued at $100,000 or higher. Both these indicators have witnessed significant growth over the past week. Generally, such an increase in active addresses and high-value transactions can signal either bullish or bearish trends for an asset’s price. However, in the context of XRP, the spike in transactions following its recent price rally suggests that larger investors or ‘whales’ may be looking to capitalize on the higher rates to sell off their holdings and secure profits.

This pattern of whale behavior, coupled with the overarching climate of profit-taking among regular holders, paints a picture of a market in a state of flux. As XRP navigates through these changes, market watchers are closely monitoring the asset’s performance, particularly with the looming legal deadline in the SEC lawsuit which could have further implications for its price and investor sentiment.

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Currency Market Stabilizes Ahead of Powell Speech, Bitcoin Gains Momentum

Currency Market Stabilizes Ahead of Powell Speech, Bitcoin Gains Momentum

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar remained stable as traders awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony and upcoming key events, including a European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and U.S. jobs data.

Bitcoin showed renewed momentum in the cryptocurrency market, though it did not surpass its recent record high achieved in a tumultuous overnight session.

The dollar’s movement was restricted, reflecting a slight decline after data revealed a minor slowdown in U.S. services industry growth last month. The upcoming February U.S. jobs report, due on Friday, is anticipated to significantly influence market expectations regarding interest rates, especially if employment figures exceed forecasts.

Powell’s testimony before Congress, focusing on the state of the U.S. economy, is expected to confirm the Fed’s intention to analyze more data before considering any rate cuts. The Fed chief might also discuss January’s strong core inflation, which analysts believe won’t alter the market’s expectation of a rate cut starting in June.

Currently, the market shows about a 60% likelihood of a June rate cut, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. The dollar index stood around 103.76, demonstrating its strength against six major currencies.

The euro remained stable at $1.0855, with the market anticipating the ECB’s rate decision. The bank is expected to maintain rates at 4% and provide updates on economic projections and hints about potential rate cuts.

Sterling was steady at $1.27050 ahead of the British budget announcement. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar recovered slightly, dismissing GDP data that showed only 0.2% growth in the fourth quarter and strengthened the case for rate cuts. It was last up 0.24% at $0.65195.

The New Zealand dollar also rose, gaining 0.16% to $0.60960, despite reaching a three-week low earlier. Conversely, the dollar fell 0.12% against the yen, settling at 149.86.

Attention is also focused on Bitcoin, which recently soared to a new high before sharply retreating. It was last up 4.11% at $65,921, fueled by investments in U.S. spot exchange-traded crypto products and anticipation of global interest rate reductions.

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Stable Near High, Amid Fed Rate-Cut Speculation and Market Softness

Gold Price Stable Near High, Amid Fed Rate-Cut Speculation and Market Softness

During the early hours of Tuesday’s European trading session, the Gold price, measured in XAU/USD, maintained a steady range, reflecting a period of consolidation after its recent significant surge to a three-month high near the $2,120 mark, achieved the previous day. This stability in Gold’s price comes as traders display caution, choosing to wait for clearer indications regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future interest rate decisions before committing to new market positions. Consequently, all eyes are set on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s two-day congressional testimony, which is slated to begin on Wednesday.

The week also brings a host of critical U.S. economic data releases coinciding with the start of a new month. Among these, the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due for release on Friday, stands out as a key determinant of the U.S. Dollar’s (USD) trajectory and, by extension, its influence on the precious metal’s dynamics. The anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s possible rate cuts starting in June has somewhat subdued USD bullish sentiment, indirectly bolstering support for the non-yielding Gold.

Adding to the mix is the slight weakening in global risk appetite, fueled by ongoing geopolitical tensions and growing concerns over an economic slowdown in China. These factors are contributing to the appeal of Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, under the XAU/USD symbol. Market participants are now keenly awaiting the U.S. ISM Services PMI data, which could offer short-term trading opportunities in the gold market.

Despite these varied influences, the fundamental landscape indicates a predominantly upward trajectory for Gold prices. The prevailing economic and geopolitical conditions suggest that any downward corrections in Gold’s price are likely to be short-lived and viewed as buying opportunities by investors. This perspective reinforces the notion that Gold remains a resilient and attractive investment amidst the current global economic uncertainties.

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Japanese Yen Dips Versus USD as BoJ Uncertainty Lingers; Tokyo CPI in Focus Tuesday

Japanese Yen Dips Versus USD as BoJ Uncertainty Lingers; Tokyo CPI in Focus Tuesday

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is experiencing renewed pressure after a slight recovery from its year-to-date low on Friday, as it enters the European trading session with a weaker stance against the US Dollar (USD). This development comes in the wake of remarks from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who emphasized on Friday that it was premature to declare a win over inflation concerns. This cautionary stance from the BoJ, coupled with signs of a technical recession in Japan, indicates a potential delay in the central bank’s shift towards tighter monetary policies. Such a delay is contributing to the diminishing strength of the JPY.

Amid these circumstances, there are reports suggesting that the Japanese government is contemplating officially declaring an end to the long-standing deflationary period. Market participants are also closely watching the potential impact of another significant wage increase in Japan. This increase could potentially initiate a wage-price spiral, compelling the BoJ to reconsider and possibly retract its current ultra-accommodative monetary policy. Despite these factors, a subdued tone in the equity markets is expected to moderate the losses for the JPY and restrain any significant appreciation of the USD/JPY pair, especially given the current muted demand for the USD.

Investors and traders are exhibiting caution, opting to refrain from making bold directional bets until the release of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday. This report is anticipated to provide valuable insights into Japan’s inflationary trends and could influence the monetary policy outlook of the BoJ. In addition to the Tokyo CPI, the global financial market is also bracing for a series of pivotal events later in the week. These include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday, as well as crucial US economic data releases at the beginning of the new month. Of particular interest will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, a key indicator of the US labor market’s health.

The combination of these upcoming events and data releases will likely offer fresh perspectives on the Federal Reserve’s trajectory regarding interest rate adjustments. Such insights are expected to significantly impact the dynamics of the USD/JPY currency pair, as investors weigh the implications of monetary policy shifts in both the US and Japan.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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