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USD/CAD Holds Near One-Week Low

USD/CAD Dips Below 1.3650 Ahead of US/Canada PMI Data

USD/CAD Dips Below 1.3650 Ahead of US/Canada PMI Data

The USD/CAD currency pair displayed a slight downward trend in early Monday trading in the European session, hovering around 1.3625. This movement was primarily driven by a weakening US Dollar following the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming release of the Canadian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for May, both set to be disclosed later in the day.

In the US, inflation rates stabilized in April, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates later this year, which could further impact the dollar’s strength. The Commerce Department reported that the PCE rose by 0.3% month-over-month in April, consistent with March’s figures. The Core PCE, which excludes the more volatile prices of food and energy, saw a slight increase of 0.2% month-over-month in April, down from 0.3% in March. Year-over-year, the core PCE price index held steady at a 2.8% increase for the third consecutive month. Following the inflation report, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have increased, now standing at nearly 53%, up from 49%.

On the Canadian side, the economy showed signs of weakness with its first-quarter GDP growth figures. The GDP expanded by an annualized rate of 1.7%, which not only fell short of the anticipated 2.2% growth but also did not meet the central bank’s projection of 2.8%. This disappointing data prompted the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut interest rates last Wednesday. Additionally, the Canadian Dollar is under pressure due to falling crude oil prices, a critical factor given Canada’s status as the largest oil exporter to the United States.

These economic indicators from both nations are crucial as they provide insights into the possible future directions of their respective central banks regarding interest rates. As investors and traders await the manufacturing PMI readings from Canada and the US, these figures will likely influence the currency pair further, shaping market dynamics for the near term.

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USD/CAD Nears 1.3700 Before US PCE, Canada GDP Data

USD/CAD Nears 1.3700 Before US PCE, Canada GDP Data

The USD/CAD pair is seeing a rebound, trading near 1.3690 during Friday’s Asian session, after halting its recent downtrend. This comes as the US Dollar strengthens in anticipation of the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, set to be announced later today.

In the US, the GDP growth for the first quarter was revised down to 1.3% from an initial estimate of 1.6%, leading investors to speculate on the possibility of a more dovish approach by the Federal Reserve. This revision has introduced some uncertainty regarding potential rate cuts in September. Furthermore, the US reported an increase in Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 2, with figures rising to 219,000 from 216,000 the previous week, surpassing the anticipated 218,000.

The lower yields on US Treasury bonds could potentially restrain the US Dollar’s gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is currently trading higher at around 104.80. Specific yield rates show the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields at 4.92% and 4.54%, respectively.

Conversely, in Canada, diminishing prospects of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in June are evident, influenced by fresh data highlighting sustained price pressures. April saw a significant jump in producer prices by 1.5%, following a 0.9% increase in March, almost double the forecasted 0.8%. The likelihood of a 25-basis point cut at the BoC’s next meeting has decreased to 34% from 46% just a week earlier.

On the data front, Statistics Canada is scheduled to release its GDP figures for the first quarter. Analysts expect an annualized growth rate of 2.2%, marking an improvement from the 1.0% expansion seen in the previous quarter.

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Oil Price Surge May Limit Gains

USD/CAD Rises to 1.3650 Amid Decline in Oil Prices

USD/CAD Rises to 1.3650 Amid Decline in Oil Prices

The USD/CAD pair has edged higher for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3650 during Asian hours on Wednesday. This upward movement is driven primarily by a growing sense of risk aversion among investors, which is bolstering demand for the US Dollar (USD) and, in turn, supporting the USD/CAD pair.

On Tuesday, risk sentiment soured following comments from Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Kashkari indicated that a rate hike might still be on the table, suggesting uncertainty about the disinflationary process and predicting only two rate cuts. This hawkish stance has increased speculation about potential future rate hikes, contributing to the appreciation of US Treasury yields and strengthening the Greenback.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, was trading higher around 104.70. Concurrently, the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 4.96% and 4.54%, respectively, further supporting the USD. Additionally, recent economic data showed that the US Housing Price Index (MoM) for March underperformed, coming in at 0.1% compared to 1.2% in February and below the expected 0.5%. Market participants are now looking forward to remarks from New York Fed President John Williams and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book, which will provide insights into the current US economic situation based on a variety of sources.

On the Canadian front, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) faced pressure due to a downward correction in crude oil prices. As Canada is a major oil exporter to the United States, fluctuations in oil prices significantly impact the commodity-linked CAD. Despite this, Canada’s Industrial Product Price Index showed a 1.5% month-over-month increase in April, surpassing market forecasts of 0.6% and reaching a new eight-month high. This follows an upwardly revised 0.9% increase in March. Additionally, the Raw Materials Price Index rose by 5.5% month-over-month in April, up from a previous rise of 4.3% and above the expected increase of 3.2%.

In summary, the USD/CAD pair’s recent gains are underpinned by a combination of risk aversion favoring the US Dollar, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and robust US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar’s performance is hindered by lower oil prices, despite stronger-than-expected domestic industrial and raw materials price data. Market participants will closely monitor upcoming economic reports and speeches for further cues on the pair’s direction.

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USD/CHF Gains Momentum Above 0.8550 Ahead of FOMC Minutes

USD/CHF Remains Strong Above 0.9150 Amid Middle East Tensions

USD/CHF Remains Strong Above 0.9150 Amid Middle East Tensions

During the early European trading hours on Monday, the USD/CHF pair demonstrated strength, trading near the 0.9150 mark. This positive momentum comes as investors anticipate the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential interest rate cuts starting from their September meeting. The prevailing expectation of easing monetary policy in the US has lent some support to the US Dollar (USD), contributing to the uplift of the pair. Attention is now turning towards a forthcoming speech by Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan on Tuesday, which is eagerly awaited for new directives. This is particularly significant as it precedes the release of Switzerland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter.

Fed officials have maintained a hawkish stance, suggesting that borrowing costs might stay elevated for a longer period than initially expected. This position is reinforced by consecutive inflation readings that continue to surpass the Fed’s 2% target, underlining persistent inflationary pressures.

Recent robust economic indicators from the US have also fueled speculation that the Fed might postpone its anticipated easing cycle. After the release of stronger-than-expected economic data last Friday, the financial markets adjusted their expectations, with the likelihood of a September rate cut by the Fed falling to 53% from the previous 64%, as per the CME FedWatch tool. Notably, the US Durable Goods Orders for April saw a rise of 0.7% month-over-month, surpassing the market’s forecast of a 0.8% decline, as reported by the US Census Bureau. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May recorded a slight increase to 69.1 from 67.4 in April, beating the anticipated 67.5, suggesting a more resilient consumer outlook than expected.

On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East have escalated following recent developments reported by CNN. At least 35 Palestinians were killed and dozens injured due to Israeli air strikes on a displacement camp in Rafah on Sunday, as stated by the Ministry of Health in Gaza. These unfolding events are closely monitored by market participants, as any increase in regional tensions could trigger safe-haven flows. Such flows typically benefit the Swiss Franc (CHF), which is considered a safe-haven currency, potentially exerting downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair.

Investors and traders alike will keep a keen eye on both economic and geopolitical developments, as these factors are likely to play crucial roles in influencing the currency pair’s movements in the near term.

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USD/CAD Dips Below 1.3650 Ahead of FOMC Minutes

USD/CAD Dips Below 1.3650 Ahead of FOMC Minutes

USD/CAD Dips Below 1.3650 Ahead of FOMC Minutes

The USD/CAD currency pair declined to 1.3640 as the U.S. Dollar experienced a period of consolidation during the early European session on Wednesday. Despite softer Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures, which might suggest an upcoming interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the pair continued its downward trajectory. Market participants are now looking forward to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes and a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Austan Goolsbee later today, which could provide further insights into future monetary policies.

On Tuesday, Statistics Canada released data showing a deceleration in inflation for April, with the annual CPI growth rate cooling to 2.7%, down from 2.9% in March, aligning with market predictions. The month-over-month increase in CPI also moderated, rising by 0.5% in April compared to 0.6% in the prior month. Notably, the BoC’s core CPI, which excludes the volatile components of the full index, increased by only 1.6% year-over-year in April, a reduction from the 2% rise observed in March.

This slowdown in inflation has fueled speculation among traders that the BoC could initiate a rate cut as early as its next meeting in June. The probability of a rate cut on June 5 surged to nearly 55%, up significantly from 39% before the inflation data was released. This shift in expectations is largely due to the easing inflation, suggesting less pressure on the BoC to maintain higher interest rates.

The trajectory of interest rate adjustments by the BoC, coupled with anticipated actions from the U.S. Federal Reserve, could place downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and potentially support the USD/CAD pair moving forward. Fed officials have expressed a cautious approach to adjusting policy rates, indicating a preference to wait for more conclusive data that confirms a sustained movement towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the need for prudence in making the first-rate move to avoid triggering instability in inflation rates. Similarly, Fed Governor Christopher Waller pointed out the necessity of observing several more months of favorable inflation data before considering a reduction in borrowing costs.

As the market awaits the FOMC Minutes and Fed speeches, the future movements of USD/CAD will likely hinge on indications of both central banks’ strategies concerning interest rate paths, especially in light of the current economic data. The forthcoming Fed communications could either validate the market’s current expectations or introduce new dynamics influencing the currency pair.

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GBP/USD Nears 1.2700 on 2024 Fed Rate Cut Hopes

GBP/USD Nears 1.2700 on 2024 Fed Rate Cut Hopes

GBP/USD Nears 1.2700 on 2024 Fed Rate Cut Hopes

The GBP/USD pair extended its gains for the second consecutive session, trading around 1.2710 during Asian hours on Monday. This upward movement was largely supported by a weaker US Dollar (USD). April data indicated that US consumer inflation had slowed to 0.3%, which has raised expectations for potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in 2024. Despite this, the Fed remains cautious about inflation and the prospect of reducing rates next year.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis-point rate cut in September has slightly increased to 49.0%, up from 48.6% a week ago. This potential easing of monetary policy by the central bank could weaken the US Dollar and provide support to the GBP/USD pair.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman noted that progress on inflation might not be as steady as hoped. Bowman highlighted that the decline in inflation seen in the latter half of last year was temporary and that there has been no further significant progress on inflation this year. Additionally, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin mentioned that while inflation is easing, it will “take more time” to reach the Fed’s 2% target.

In the United Kingdom (UK), investors are anticipating a potential 60 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in 2024, with the first cut expected in August. The upcoming UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is forecasted to show an annual rise of 2.7%, according to FactSet estimates. This data is expected to have a significant impact on the Pound Sterling (GBP).BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, speaking after the release of March’s CPI data, remarked, “Inflation in the UK will fall near its 2% target next month,” noting that inflation has been declining roughly in line with the BoE’s February forecast.

Overall, the GBP/USD pair’s recent gains are driven by a combination of weaker USD and market expectations for rate cuts from both the Fed and BoE in the near future. However, the future movements of this currency pair will heavily depend on upcoming economic data releases and central bank policy decisions.

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USD/JPY Nears 156.00 Amid Unchanged BoJ Bond Purchases

USD/JPY Nears 156.00 Amid Unchanged BoJ Bond Purchases

USD/JPY Nears 156.00 Amid Unchanged BoJ Bond Purchases

During the Asian trading session on Friday, the USD/JPY pair climbed to a high of 155.90 as the Japanese Yen faced increased downward pressure. This market movement coincided with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decision to maintain its current level of bond purchases, diverging from market expectations that had anticipated a possible reduction in debt buying earlier in the week.

Market participants are now closely watching the BoJ’s next steps, with speculation mounting that the central bank may opt to taper its bond-buying program at the upcoming June policy meeting. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda further solidified this perspective by clarifying in recent statements that the central bank has no immediate plans to offload its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Amidst these developments, Toshitaka Sekine, a former chief economist at the BoJ, shared insights in a Bloomberg interview that suggest the potential for more aggressive monetary policy adjustments. According to Sekine, the BoJ might increase its benchmark interest rate as many as three times before the year’s end. He pointed out that the next rate hike could come as soon as June, noting that there is considerable scope to modify the current “excessively” accommodative policy settings.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar has shown resilience as reflected in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of six major currencies. The index was observed trading around 104.60, having recovered from a multi-week trough of 104.08 on Thursday. This rebound comes amidst a backdrop of ongoing caution from the Federal Reserve regarding inflation dynamics and the potential timing of future rate cuts, possibly extending into 2024.

Key comments from Federal Reserve officials underscore the prevailing economic sentiment. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the necessity of patience with interest rates during a speech in Jacksonville, highlighting persistent pricing pressures within the U.S. economy. Similarly, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester remarked that it might take longer than previously expected to determine a clear inflation trajectory with confidence. These statements suggest a consensus among some Fed policymakers that the current restrictive monetary stance should be sustained longer to ensure inflation targets are met securely.

These intertwined dynamics between U.S. monetary policy and developments within the Bank of Japan are likely to keep investors on edge as they navigate through an environment filled with policy uncertainties and their implications for global currency markets.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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GBP/USD Consolidates Around

GBP/USD Consolidates Around Mid-1.3000s, Vulnerable Amid Strong USD

GBP/USD Consolidates Around Mid-1.3000s, Vulnerable Amid Strong USD

The GBP/USD pair struggles to maintain modest recovery gains from the past two days, trading within a narrow range around 1.3050-1.3045 during Monday’s Asian session. Spot prices remain close to last Thursday’s one-month low, signaling potential vulnerability for continued declines from the 1.3435 area, which marked the highest level since March 2022.

The recent drop in the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) to its lowest point since April 2021, below the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target, has fueled expectations of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in the BoE’s upcoming November 7 meeting. Additionally, money markets are pricing in the possibility of another rate cut in December, which could further weigh on the British Pound (GBP). Combined with ongoing bullish sentiment for the US Dollar (USD), this supports a negative outlook for GBP/USD.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, starts the week on a positive note, stalling its recent pullback from last week’s highest level since early August. Market confidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement modest rate cuts next year keeps US Treasury yields elevated, providing additional support for the dollar. Geopolitical risks also add to the USD’s safe-haven appeal.

With no significant economic data releases from the UK or US, the current fundamental backdrop suggests that GBP/USD’s downside risk remains the dominant trend. Any intraday upticks may be viewed as selling opportunities. However, bearish traders might wait for the pair to break below the 1.3000 psychological level before placing new bets, targeting support near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around the 1.2960 region.

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EUR/USD Extends Losses Following ECB Rate Cut Decision

EUR/USD Extends Losses After ECB Rate Cut

EUR/USD Extends Losses After ECB Rate Cut

The EUR/USD pair continues to decline following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. With a lack of bullish momentum, the pair is now down more than 3.5% from late September’s peak above 1.1200, as it extends near-term losses.

The ECB’s rate cut, which was in line with market expectations, lowered the Deposit Facility Rate to 3.25% and the Main Refinancing Operations Rate to 3.4%. Adding further pressure on the Euro, Europe’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the year ending in September dropped more than anticipated, coming in at 1.7% YoY compared to the forecasted 1.8%.

The upcoming EU Leadership Summit on Friday is the last key event on the EU economic calendar. However, it is unlikely to instill confidence in the Euro, as European policymakers continue to face a challenging economic environment, with fears of a deeper slowdown despite reassurances to the contrary.

In contrast, US economic data continues to outperform. September’s Retail Sales grew by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding forecasts of 0.3% and rebounding from August’s 0.1% rise. Excluding automotive sales, Retail Sales increased by 0.5%, beating expectations of 0.1%. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 11 came in at 241K, lower than the expected 260K, further supporting the US Dollar.

EUR/USD Price Outlook

The EUR/USD is under considerable bearish pressure, having dropped below both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0996 and the 200-day EMA at 1.0904, indicating a clear shift in market sentiment. The pair is currently trading near 1.0828, approaching multi-week lows as downside momentum builds. A break below the 1.0800 support level could trigger further declines, with the next key support at 1.0750.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains deep in negative territory, showing no signs of reversal. The MACD and signal lines continue to diverge, and the expanding negative histogram points to accelerating bearish momentum. Should the pair fail to hold the 1.0800 level, further losses toward 1.0750 and potentially 1.0700 could follow. Conversely, a recovery above 1.0900, aligning with the 200-day EMA, is needed to reduce bearish pressure and offer some relief to bulls.

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EUR/USD Hits 10-Week Low Ahead of ECB Policy Announcement

EUR/USD Hits 10-Week Low Ahead of ECB Policy Announcement

EUR/USD Hits 10-Week Low Ahead of ECB Policy Announcement

EUR/USD continues to show weakness, trading near 1.0850 on Thursday as the currency pair faces significant selling pressure ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, expected at 12:15 GMT.

According to a Tuesday note from Citi, traders anticipate the ECB will reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by a total of 49 basis points (bps) across its remaining two meetings this year. This implies two 25 bps cuts, one on Thursday and another in December.

A quarter-point rate cut on Thursday would mark the second consecutive reduction, lowering the deposit rate to 3.25%. A dovish decision is widely expected, as the Eurozone faces an economic slowdown and inflationary pressures seem under control.

With strong expectations for another rate cut, investors will closely analyze the ECB’s monetary policy statement and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference for further insights into possible December actions.

Lagarde is expected to focus on strategies to revive economic growth. The Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell to 1.7% in September, below both expectations and the preliminary estimate of 1.8%, according to revised figures. Additionally, Germany’s latest economic projections suggest the country will end the year with a 0.2% contraction in output.

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EUR/USD stays below 1.0900; further decline

EUR/USD stays below 1.0900; further decline likely as ECB decision approaches

EUR/USD stays below 1.0900; further decline likely as ECB decision approaches

EUR/USD remains under pressure, trading near 1.0890 during the Asian session on Wednesday after a four-day losing streak. The Euro could face additional downside as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point cut in both the Main Refinancing Rate and the Deposit Facility Rate during Thursday’s policy meeting.

Ahead of the ECB decision, traders will closely monitor the Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data, which is set to be released on Thursday. This data could provide critical signals about inflationary trends in the region.

Key events following the ECB meeting will include the release of the Monetary Policy Statement and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference, where insights into the ECB’s future policy direction are expected.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against six major currencies, continues to hover near a two-month high of 103.35, reached on Monday. Strong jobs and inflation data from the US have dampened expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024.

Current market projections suggest a total of 125 basis points in Fed rate cuts over the next year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 94.1% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in November, with no significant likelihood of a larger 50-basis-point move.

On Tuesday, Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, noted that he expects just one more rate cut of 25 basis points this year, reflecting his projections from last month’s Fed meeting. “The median forecast indicated 50 basis points in cuts, in addition to the 50 basis points already delivered in September,” according to Reuters.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0900 Amid Strong USD

EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0900, Lowest Since August 8, as USD Strengthens

EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0900, Lowest Since August 8, as USD Strengthens

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward slide for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, dipping to the 1.0890 region in the last hour, inching closer to its lowest point since August 8, touched the previous day. However, bearish traders remain cautious, waiting for a decisive break below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before making fresh moves ahead of significant central bank developments.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its policy decision on Thursday, with expectations of a third rate cut in this easing cycle due to growing concerns over sluggish economic growth. Additionally, Eurozone inflation has dropped below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since 2021, further supporting the case for policy easing. This weakens the euro, while a stronger US Dollar (USD) further weighs on the EUR/USD pair.

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, remains strong near a two-month high amid rising expectations of a less aggressive rate-cutting approach by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Markets have now ruled out the likelihood of another large Fed rate cut in November, keeping US Treasury yields elevated. Geopolitical risks also add to the safe-haven appeal of the USD, potentially fueling further downside pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Market participants now focus on Tuesday’s key data releases, including the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and Eurozone Industrial Production figures. Later in the North American session, the Empire State Manufacturing Index and speeches from key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will influence USD demand, offering short-term direction for the EUR/USD pair.

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EUR/USD Dips Below 1.0950 Amid Stronger US Dollar

EUR/USD Dips Below 1.0950 Amid Stronger US Dollar

EUR/USD Dips Below 1.0950 Amid Stronger US Dollar

The EUR/USD pair continued its decline, dropping to around 1.0920 during early trading in Asia on Monday. This downward movement is driven by risk aversion, fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising conflicts between China and Taiwan, which are pressuring riskier currencies like the Euro (EUR).

On Monday, a spokesperson from the US Department of State expressed “serious concern” over the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military drills in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan. They noted that the US will closely monitor these activities and collaborate with allies regarding shared concerns. Any further escalation could increase demand for safe-haven assets like the US Dollar (USD), adding pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, traders are anticipating a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November, following the release of Friday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows an 86.8% likelihood of this rate cut, up from 83.3% before the PPI report.

In Europe, the Euro is also under pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to implement further rate cuts in the remaining monetary policy meetings this year. The ECB’s dovish approach is driven by faster-than-expected declines in Eurozone inflation and a fragile economic recovery.

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EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0950 Ahead of Key German Inflation Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0950 Ahead of Key German Inflation Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0950 Ahead of Key German Inflation Data

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade defensively around 1.0935 during early European hours on Friday. A stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation reading on Thursday has bolstered the U.S. dollar, limiting the pair’s ability to move higher.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in hotter than anticipated, along with a robust September jobs report. This combination strengthens the view that any future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be gradual. Following the CPI release, the CME FedWatch Tool showed an 83.3% probability that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for September and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October, both due on Friday. The headline PPI is forecast to rise by 1.6% year-over-year (YoY) for September, while core PPI is expected to increase by 2.7%. If the PPI data comes in softer than expected, the U.S. dollar could weaken against the euro.

In Europe, expectations are building that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates to address the region’s economic slowdown, which may weigh further on the euro. The ECB is expected to lower its key rates twice this year, with a 3.5% deposit rate cut anticipated next week. According to a Reuters poll, over 90% of economists expect a rate cut next week, with another likely to follow in December.

Additionally, Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data, expected to remain steady at 1.8% YoY for September, will be released later on Friday.

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US Dollar Stabilizes After Recent Losses

Dollar Weakens as Fed Hike Expectations Diminish

Dollar Weakens as Fed Hike Expectations Diminish

On Friday, the dollar witnessed a downturn, heading towards a weekly drop against multiple currencies. Market participants speculate that the U.S. Federal Reserve might have concluded its rate hikes, thus enhancing the risk sentiment. The dollar index, reflecting its value against six primary currencies, marked a decline of 0.122% at 106.07, closely tailing its one-week low from Thursday.

This marks its third dip in 16 weeks, anticipating a 0.4% decrease for the week. Recent market evaluations suggest a reduced likelihood of a rate hike in December, dropping to under 20% from a prior 39%, as per CME FedWatch’s data. This sentiment is influenced by the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday to maintain the interest rates, albeit indicating potential hikes aligning with economic robustness.

Moh Siong Sim, a currency expert at the Bank of Singapore, pointed out the Fed’s precarious balancing act between the financial scenario and rate adjustments. He emphasized the rising bond yields’ role in this dynamic, suggesting the Federal Reserve can adopt a “wait and see” approach.

However, post the Fed’s policy announcement, there’s been over a 20 basis point reduction in the 10-year Treasury bonds’ yield. Notably, these Treasuries were not traded in Asia on Friday due to a Japanese holiday.

Sim stated the existing market tensions, though the prevailing mood leans towards relaxation. The employment data from Thursday revealed only a minor spike in the unemployment claims, indicating stability in the labor market. As attention pivots to the October non-farm payrolls, predictions are rife about an addition of 180,000 jobs. Any deviation from this could exert more pressure on the dollar.

Julien Lafargue, Barclays Private Bank’s chief market strategist, stated that even if the non-farm payrolls surpassed expectations, it might not solidify arguments for a December rate hike by the Fed. The central bank seems more driven by inflation than job growth.

Analysts believe the dollar’s trajectory will be influenced by upcoming economic data. According to Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC, for the dollar to soften, indicators need to show a stronger disinflationary trend and a noticeable relaxation in the U.S. job market. 

In related currency news, the euro and sterling are gearing up for weekly gains, while the Bank of England maintained its interest rates, highlighting no immediate reductions. The European Central Bank, on the other hand, paused after ten consecutive rate hikes, sparking debates on the duration of elevated rates. As for the yen, it made significant movements this week, causing traders to remain alert for possible interventions from Japan. The AUD and NZD also witnessed weekly surges, marking their best performance since July.

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Australian Dollar Steady Amid RBA’s Restrictive Policy Outlook

Australian Dollar Gains Momentum Amid Weakening US Dollar

Australian Dollar Gains Momentum Amid Weakening US Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its upward trajectory, marking its third consecutive day of gains on Monday. This rise comes after the AUD rebounded from its annual lows, primarily driven by the underperformance of the US Dollar (USD). The weakening of the USD is in response to the recent economic data that emerged from the United States last Friday.

Adding to the momentum is the anticipation surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Speculation is rife that the RBA may consider raising policy rates in its next meeting scheduled for November 7. Such a move, if it comes to fruition, will undoubtedly influence the AUD’s trajectory further.

Significantly, Australia’s Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) data for September took analysts by surprise, showcasing a reading well above both market expectations and the previously recorded figures. This upswing in retail sales is a positive sign for the Australian economy and reflects robust consumer spending patterns. Moreover, the recently released data on Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) highlights a growth trend. The third quarter of 2023 saw the CPI outpacing the increases recorded in the second quarter. With inflation on the rise, market experts foresee a strong possibility that the RBA might increase rates by 25 basis points in their forthcoming meeting.

On the international front, there’s a buzz in diplomatic corridors regarding a potential meeting between the Presidents of the US and China, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, respectively. This meeting, slated for November, emerges after prolonged and meticulous diplomatic efforts to mend strained relations. If successful, the dialogue could pave the way for strengthened ties between the two superpowers. For the AUD, often influenced by commodity prices and global trade dynamics, this meeting bears significance. The upcoming release of China’s PMI data will likely be a focal point for investors, influencing trading strategies and decisions.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is making attempts to reclaim its lost position following recent setbacks. However, it faced challenges as data revealed a dip in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (YoY) for September. Although the month-on-month data indicated a predicted rise, the overall sentiment around the Greenback remains cautious. An additional factor to consider is the University of Michigan Consumer Index, which, despite surpassing expectations, didn’t provide a substantial boost to the USD. Given this scenario, market analysts predict the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will maintain the status quo concerning interest rates in their imminent meeting.

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Australian Dollar Falters Amid Stronger US Dollar and Geopolitical Concerns

Australian Dollar Falters Amid Stronger US Dollar and Geopolitical Concerns

The Australian Dollar (AUD) finds itself under increasing pressure, with the currency marking its second consecutive day of losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. Lingering around its annual lows, the AUD/USD exchange rate is beleaguered due to a robust US Dollar buoyed by favorable US Treasury yields.

Recent inflation data from Australia have stirred discussions about the potential for a 25 basis points rate increment by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in their upcoming November session. Specifically, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) brought to light that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) witnessed a noticeable climb during the third quarter of 2023.

Providing insight into these inflationary movements, RBA Governor Michele Bullock spoke on Thursday, pointing out that the rise in the CPI was slightly above what had been forecasted. However, she was quick to note that these figures were still well within the expected boundaries set by the bank. Emphasizing the careful strategy of the central bank, Bullock outlined the RBA’s objective to delicately modulate the economy’s growth, ensuring it doesn’t inadvertently veer into a recession.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is on an upward trajectory. This is largely attributed to the positive sentiment surrounding the US Treasury yields, further augmented by the impressive preliminary S&P Global PMI figures from the United States, which were made public on Tuesday. The strength of the US Dollar in recent times underscores the confidence investors have in the American economy and its fiscal instruments.

On the global stage, the specter of geopolitical tensions continues to loom large, likely driving investors towards safe-haven assets. In a notable development, Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has indicated the country’s preparedness to initiate a ground operation in Gaza. The specifics regarding the timing of such an action are expected to be arrived at through a collaborative decision-making process. Furthermore, in a bid to address the escalating tensions between Hamas and Israel, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdallahian, has reportedly initiated contact with the USA, as per sources from Iranian media.

In conclusion, while the Australian Dollar grapples with domestic economic indicators and rate hike prospects, it also has to navigate the challenging waters of a resurgent US Dollar and mounting geopolitical tensions that have global financial ramifications.

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Japanese Yen Continues Downward

Bank of Japan Initiates Unexpected Bond Purchase

Bank of Japan Initiates Unexpected Bond Purchase

In an unexpected maneuver, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) declared an unscheduled bond operation this Tuesday. This move comes in response to the escalating Japanese government bond (JGB) yields that recently touched their highest levels in a decade. By making this move, the BOJ intends to exert control and manage the sudden inflation of JGB yields, aiming to maintain financial stability within the country.

To provide a clearer perspective, the central bank of Japan, in this sudden operation, has put forth an offer to purchase bonds worth 300 billion yen (equivalent to $2.00 billion) that come with a maturity span ranging between five to ten years. Additionally, the bank has also shown interest in acquiring bonds valued at 100 billion yen, which possess maturities extending from 10 to 25 years. These purchases are slated to commence from Wednesday.

This initiative is over and above the BOJ’s regular proposition, wherein it pledges to procure an infinite quantity of JGBs daily, sticking to a fixed rate of 1%. This continual commitment from the bank underscores its dedication to economic steadiness and its proactive stance in dealing with unexpected market fluctuations.

The aftermath of the BOJ’s announcement was promptly visible in the financial markets. Specifically, the 10-year JGB yield, coded as JP10YTN=JBTC, witnessed a slight decline, moving 0.5 basis points down to 0.855%. Notably, prior to this adjustment, the yield remained steady at Monday’s closing rate of 0.86%, a peak not seen since the summer of 2013.

It’s worth noting the international influences that might be impacting Japanese yields. A remarkable surge in the U.S. Treasury yields has been observed, with the benchmark 10-year note, referred to as US10YT=RR, soaring to an impressive 5% overnight. This surge marked its pinnacle in the last 16 years, indicating substantial global financial shifts.

Furthermore, as a part of its comprehensive strategy, the BOJ has imposed a cap on the 10-year yield, limiting it to 1%. This falls under the bank’s yield curve controls (YCC) mechanism, which was surprisingly adjusted this past July. Even though the existing yield substantially trails this upper limit, it’s evident that the policymakers are vigilantly monitoring the situation. They have been consistently intervening to ensure that the rate of yield increments remains controlled and gradual.

In conclusion, as Japan’s economy encounters these yield challenges, all eyes are on the BOJ, anticipating its next policy decision, which is due to be unveiled on October 31st. This forthcoming announcement is expected to provide further insights into Japan’s economic trajectory and the central bank’s evolving strategies. 

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EUR/USD Eases Near

USD Index Hovers Uncertainly Near 106.50: Market Eyes Data and Powell’s Speech

USD Index Hovers Uncertainly Near 106.50: Market Eyes Data and Powell’s Speech

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a measure that gauges the strength of the dollar against a basket of other currencies, exhibited a mix of gains and losses, stabilizing around the mid-106.00s this Thursday. Notably, the index has encountered a slight resistance approaching the 106.70 mark.

Following a noteworthy ascent on Wednesday, reaching near the 106.70 level, the index experienced some restrained selling pressures. This activity was influenced by fluctuating risk appetites in the market, especially as investors and traders exercised caution leading up to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s impending address.

Parallelly, U.S. yield trends have been heading upward, echoing the Federal Reserve’s consistent “tighter-for-longer” approach. This monetary policy perspective emphasizes a prolonged period of tight monetary conditions, reflecting confidence in the continuous robust performance of the U.S. economy.

As the trading session advances, all eyes are set to focus on Chairman Powell’s presentation at the prestigious Economic Club of New York. His commentary on the nation’s economic prospects is anticipated to have a significant impact on market movements. Simultaneously, several key figures from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and various regional Federal Reserve banks are slated to share their insights. This includes personalities such as FOMC’s P. Jefferson, Chicago Fed’s A. Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed’s R. Bostic, FOMC’s M. Barr, and Philadelphia Fed’s P. Harker. Each of their perspectives, representing a blend of centrist and hawkish views, will be meticulously analyzed by market participants.

On the data front, there’s a packed schedule. Initial weekly jobless claims are set to be unveiled, providing an updated pulse check on the labor market. This will be closely followed by indicators like the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, offering insights into regional manufacturing activities. Other crucial reports encompass the CB Leading Index, statistics on Existing Home Sales, and the much-awaited Monthly Budget Statement.

In the broader context, the USD Index continues to oscillate near the 106.50 level, reflecting an air of uncertainty. Market stakeholders are meticulously evaluating the geopolitical landscape, crucial domestic data, and preparing for the potential market-moving remarks from Powell. 

Reassuringly, the U.S. dollar continues to derive strength from the nation’s economic vitality. The economy’s health, complemented by the Federal Reserve’s unwavering “tighter-for-longer” approach, sets the stage for intriguing dynamics in the currency markets in the days to come.

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GBP/USD Holds Steady Above 1.2700 Amid Muted USD Movement

UK’s Strong Inflation Data Pushes EUR/GBP Below 0.8680

UK’s Strong Inflation Data Pushes EUR/GBP Below 0.8680

During Wednesday’s early European trading session, the EUR/GBP currency pair experienced selling pressure, influenced largely by robust inflation data from the UK. This stronger-than-anticipated inflationary trend propelled the British Pound (GBP) upward, placing the EUR/GBP cross under some strain. Currently, the currency pair stands at around 0.8682, marking a modest 0.01% rise for the day.

The UK’s National Statistics released fresh data highlighting that September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5% month-on-month, up from August’s 0.3% and surpassing market predictions of 0.4%. When analyzed on a yearly basis, the inflation rate maintained its 6.7% pace, outpacing the forecasted 6.5%. Significantly, the Core CPI, which omits the often erratic food and energy prices, rose to 6.1% year-on-year in September, slightly down from its preceding 6.2% but better than the 6.0% market estimate. Such bullish data is fueling the GBP’s strength, which in turn is impacting the EUR/GBP cross’s trajectory.

Huw Pill, the Bank of England (BoE)’s Chief Economist, recently commented on the bank’s extensive work around interest rates. He stressed that if the UK economy faces sustained inflation, a long-term monetary policy response would be necessary. Supporting this viewpoint, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey hinted over the weekend that given the need for a tighter policy to bring inflation back to the 2% target, the current interest rate of 5.25% is likely to persist.

Concurrently, Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank (ECB) President, emphasized the institution’s vigilance concerning inflation risks, particularly focusing on fluctuating oil prices and the Israel-Hamas conflict’s potential implications. Additionally, the ECB’s chief economist, Philip Lane, intimated that attaining the 2% inflation target might take longer than initially presumed, due to various contributing factors.

In related European economic news, Tuesday’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey for the EU recorded a 2.3 in October, a marked improvement from its previous decline of 8.9, thereby exceeding market projections. The German iteration of the survey also displayed positive momentum, registering at -1.1 compared to the earlier -11.4.

Moving forward, market watchers will keenly anticipate the final September figures for the Eurozone CPI and the August Construction Output data. Furthermore, upcoming remarks from ECB President Lagarde might provide insights into the ECB’s future monetary stance. By the week’s end, the spotlight will shift towards the UK’s Retail Sales data for September, which could provide definitive directional cues for the EUR/GBP cross.

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Nikkei Index Takes Lead in Asian Market Losses Amid Israel-Hamas Tensions

Nikkei Index Takes Lead in Asian Market Losses Amid Israel-Hamas Tensions

Amid rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas, Asian markets experienced a general decline in trading on Monday. The Nikkei index in Japan led the losses, with a focus on upcoming key inflation data due later in the week.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has cast a shadow on regional stock markets. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement of military operations in Gaza to root out Hamas has generated uncertainty. US President Joe Biden has emphasized the need to protect civilians, and the US is working to alleviate shortages of essential supplies like food, water, and petroleum. Additionally, concerns have arisen due to robust US inflation data from the previous week, raising questions about potential rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

As of the latest reports, the Shanghai Composite in China has slipped by 0.40% to 3,075, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.99% to 9,969. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down by 0.37% at 17,745, South Korea’s Kospi recorded a 1.24% dip, and Japan’s Nikkei has fallen by 1.80%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate at 2.50% on Monday, alongside an unchanged seven-day reverse repo rate at 1.80%. PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng, speaking at an International Monetary Fund meeting in Morocco, expressed a commitment to provide substantial support to the real economy.

In China, the National Bureau of Statistics reported the Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September at 0% YoY, down from the previous 0.1% and below market expectations of 0.2%. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased to 2.5% from a 3% fall in August, missing the anticipated 2.4% decline. Investors are awaiting key Chinese economic data later in the week, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales, set for release on Wednesday.

In Japan, concerns about potential Fed interest rate hikes have weighed on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Market participants are approaching the upcoming release of Japan’s National Consumer Price Index for September with caution. Any signs of persistent inflation could encourage the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tighten its monetary policy further.

Looking ahead, market focus will shift to US Retail Sales data scheduled for Tuesday. Subsequently, attention will turn to the release of Chinese Q3 growth figures, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales on Wednesday. Finally, Friday will bring the Japanese inflation data to the forefront of market analysis.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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