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Gold Price Drops to $2,640, Holds Above Key Support After NFP Data

Gold Price Slips to $2,640, Holds Above Friday’s Post-NFP Low and Trading Range Support

Gold Price Slips to $2,640, Holds Above Friday’s Post-NFP Low and Trading Range Support

Gold (XAU/USD) faced fresh selling pressure on Monday, dropping to a daily low of around $2,640 as the European session approached. The US Dollar (USD) remains near a seven-week high, bolstered by traders adjusting expectations for a large interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. Friday’s strong US employment report, combined with a generally positive risk sentiment, continues to weigh on gold demand.

Despite the positive market outlook, geopolitical tensions stemming from conflicts in the Middle East and the threat of a wider war may still support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Therefore, a break below the $2,635-$2,630 support zone is needed before betting on further declines for gold.

Market Movers: Gold Price Weakens Amid Strong USD, Smaller Fed Rate Cut Expectations

The robust US employment report on Friday reduced the likelihood of aggressive policy easing by the Fed, which continues to dampen demand for non-yielding assets like gold. The US Labor Department reported that 254K jobs were added in September, far surpassing expectations, while the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. Revisions for July and August also revealed 72K additional jobs, signaling a resilient labor market and a stronger economy.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders now anticipate a 95% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s November policy meeting. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond hovers near the 4.0% level, and the strong US Dollar continues to keep gold bulls on the defensive.

Easing fears of an economic slowdown in the US, alongside optimism from China’s stimulus measures, have contributed to the positive sentiment in equity markets. However, geopolitical risks remain elevated, as Israel launched a fresh round of airstrikes in Gaza and Lebanon, and Hezbollah retaliated with attacks on Haifa. The rising tension increases the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East, which could enhance gold’s safe-haven demand, cautioning bearish traders.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Price Outlook Hinges on Key Support and Resistance Levels

From a technical perspective, gold’s current range-bound trading may be viewed as a bullish consolidation following its recent surge to record highs. Daily chart indicators remain comfortably in positive territory, having eased from overbought conditions, which supports the prospect of an eventual breakout to the upside. However, traders may want to wait for a sustained move above the $2,670-$2,672 resistance level before placing fresh bullish bets. Clearing this zone, along with the $2,685-$2,686 region and the $2,700 mark, could pave the way for a continuation of the long-term uptrend.

On the downside, immediate support for gold lies at the $2,630 area. A decisive break below this level could trigger technical selling, pushing the XAU/USD price under $2,600 and towards the next key support near $2,560. A deeper corrective decline could target the $2,535-$2,530 region, with the $2,500 psychological mark acting as a major support zone.

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Gold Price Approaches Weekly High as USD Softens; US NFP Report in Focus

Gold Price Nears Weekly High Amid Softer USD; Focus Shifts to US NFP Report

Gold Price Nears Weekly High Amid Softer USD; Focus Shifts to US NFP Report

Gold (XAU/USD) gained momentum on Friday, climbing toward the $2,668 mark, near its weekly high, as the US Dollar (USD) slightly retreats from the one-month peak reached on Thursday. The USD’s pullback, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has driven safe-haven demand for the precious metal during the European session.

However, the upside for gold might be capped by reduced expectations of aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders remain cautious ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the next directional move for gold. Despite this, XAU/USD hovers close to last week’s all-time high, and the overall outlook still favors bullish traders.

Market Movers: Gold Price Gains as USD Slips; Eyes on US NFP for Fresh Cues

On Thursday, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported that initial unemployment claims increased marginally to 225K in the week ending September 28, up from 218K. This followed stronger-than-expected private-sector employment data for September and a surprising rise in available jobs in August, signaling a resilient labor market.

Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.9 in September, its highest level since February 2023, reflecting economic stability in the third quarter. These factors reduced expectations for another large rate cut by the Fed, boosting the USD to a one-month high and acting as a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.

On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East escalated further. On Thursday, Hezbollah launched approximately 230 projectiles from Lebanon into Israeli territory. In response, Israel carried out strikes on Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in Beirut early Friday. With the risk of a full-scale conflict rising, gold continues to benefit from its status as a safe-haven asset.

Looking ahead, traders are focused on the US NFP report, which is expected to show a 140K job increase in September, slightly down from the previous 142K, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.2%. The report, along with Average Hourly Earnings data, could influence the size of the Fed’s expected rate cut in November, potentially driving fresh USD demand and providing directional momentum for gold.

Technical Outlook: Gold Poised to Challenge All-Time High, Eyes $2,700 Mark

From a technical perspective, the recent price movement is seen as a bullish consolidation phase following gold’s strong rally to its record high. Daily chart oscillators remain comfortably in positive territory, further supporting the bullish outlook. Immediate resistance lies around the $2,672-$2,673 area, followed by the $2,685-$2,686 zone—the previous all-time high. A break above these levels could open the path to the psychological $2,700 mark, extending the long-standing uptrend.

On the downside, support is expected around the $2,625-$2,624 area, near a short-term ascending channel resistance point. A break below this level could trigger aggressive selling, potentially dragging gold below $2,600 and towards the $2,560 and $2,535-$2,530 support zones. Further declines could see XAU/USD testing the $2,500 psychological level.

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Gold Price Under Pressure as Strong USD Prevails, Middle East Tensions Cap Losses

Gold Price Stays Under Pressure as Strong USD Weighs, Middle East Tensions Limit Losses

Gold Price Stays Under Pressure as Strong USD Weighs, Middle East Tensions Limit Losses

Gold (XAU/USD) faced renewed selling pressure after bouncing from the $2,641 level and remains defensive as the European session begins on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) continues its recovery, reaching a three-week high, as expectations for aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) diminish. This stronger USD is negatively impacting the demand for non-yielding assets like gold, though escalating tensions in the Middle East are helping to cushion deeper losses.

Recent geopolitical developments, including Iran launching over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel and Israel’s airstrike on central Beirut, Lebanon, have heightened fears of a broader conflict in the region. This has tempered risk appetite, as reflected in weaker equity markets, and provided some support for the safe-haven gold price. However, gold traders will keep a close watch on Thursday’s US economic data, with the focus shifting toward the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

Daily Market Movers: Gold Price Bears Defend as USD Strength Persists

Stronger US labor market data and hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday have further strengthened the USD, continuing its recovery from its lowest level since July 2023.

  • Tuesday’s US JOLTS Job Openings report showed a significant rise of 329K jobs, reaching 8.04 million in August, up from July’s revised 7.71 million.
  • Wednesday’s ADP report revealed private employers added 143K jobs in September, surpassing expectations of 120K and August’s 103K figure.

These signals of a resilient US labor market have led investors to reconsider the possibility of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in November. Additionally, hopes that China’s economic stimulus measures will drive a sustained recovery have put further pressure on safe-haven assets like gold.

On the geopolitical front, tensions escalated further with Israel’s airstrike on Beirut, Lebanon, after Iran’s missile barrage earlier in the week, fueling concerns of a full-blown war in the Middle East. This complex backdrop warrants caution before making aggressive bets on XAU/USD ahead of Friday’s critical US NFP report. Thursday’s economic releases, including Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI, along with speeches from key FOMC members, may also provide short-term trading opportunities for gold.

Technical Outlook: Gold Price Set for Dip-Buying Near $2,625 Support

From a technical standpoint, gold’s recent price action suggests a consolidation phase following its strong rally to record highs. Indicators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, suggesting a bullish bias. Immediate resistance is seen at the $2,672-$2,673 level, followed by the $2,685-$2,686 zone, and ultimately the $2,700 mark, which could trigger further bullish momentum.

On the downside, the $2,625-$2,624 region, aligning with the support of a short-term ascending channel, should act as a key level. A break below this could lead to further selling, pushing gold below $2,600 and toward the next major support near $2,560. A deeper decline could extend to $2,535-$2,530, with a potential move down to the psychological $2,500 mark.

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Japanese Yen Weakens as US Dollar Gains Strength Ahead of ADP Employment Report

Japanese Yen Declines as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of ADP Employment Report

Japanese Yen Declines as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of ADP Employment Report

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, as uncertainty grows around the possibility of future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from September’s Monetary Policy Meeting indicated no immediate plans for further rate hikes, with the central bank maintaining its accommodative stance while remaining open to adjustments if economic conditions improve.

Japan’s Economic Revitalization Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, stated on Wednesday that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expects the BoJ to thoroughly evaluate the economy before raising rates. In his first press briefing, Akazawa stressed that Japan’s top priority is to completely exit deflation, which he noted will take time.

The US Dollar remains supported by a cautious market mood amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, the weaker-than-expected US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September applied some downward pressure on the Greenback. Market attention is now shifting to the upcoming US ADP Employment Change report and comments from Federal Reserve officials for further market direction.

Daily Market Highlights: Yen Depreciates as BoJ Rate Hike Odds Wane

The CME FedWatch Tool suggests markets are assigning a 63.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut at 36.9%, down from 58.2% a week ago.

In the Middle East, Iran launched over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to vow retaliation. Iran responded with warnings that any counterstrike would result in “vast destruction,” intensifying concerns of a wider conflict.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.2 for September, matching August’s reading but falling short of the expected 47.5, signaling ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector.

In Japan, the Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q3 remained steady at 13 points, as expected. Additionally, Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.5% in August from 2.7% in July, outperforming forecasts of 2.6%, according to data released on Tuesday.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Monday that the Fed is not in a hurry to reduce interest rates, stating that future cuts will be made “over time.” Powell also noted that the recent 50 basis point rate cut should not be seen as a signal for further aggressive actions.

Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, affirmed that the country’s monetary policy would remain accommodative to support its fragile economic recovery, which has further pressured the Japanese Yen and supported the USD/JPY pair.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated last week that the Fed should begin cutting rates “gradually” following the larger-than-expected half-point reduction in September. He also acknowledged that the economy could weaken more than anticipated, which may call for faster rate cuts.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Holds Above 143.50 with Bullish Bias

The USD/JPY pair is trading around 143.80 on Wednesday, consolidating within an ascending channel pattern, suggesting a bullish outlook. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 level; a break above this threshold would further confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.

The pair may encounter resistance near the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 146.80, followed by the five-week high of 147.21, last reached on September 3.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 143.50, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 143.00. A break below this level could push the USD/JPY pair toward 139.58, the lowest since June 2023.

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Pound Sterling Holds Steady

Pound Sterling Steadies Near 1.3400 Ahead of US PMI and Labor Data

Pound Sterling Steadies Near 1.3400 Ahead of US PMI and Labor Data

The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains in a tight range around the key resistance level of 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) during Tuesday’s London session. Investors are holding back as they await critical US labor market data, which could provide insight into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plans for further rate cuts this year.

The Fed began its policy-easing cycle with a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.75%-5.00% on September 18. This larger-than-expected cut was driven by concerns over weakening job growth and growing confidence that inflation is moving toward the Fed’s 2% target.

To gauge the health of the labor market, traders will closely monitor the US ADP Employment Change on Wednesday and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. These data points will be critical in shaping expectations for future Fed rate cuts.

On Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against speculation of an aggressive rate-cutting cycle, emphasizing that the Fed is not in a rush to lower rates quickly. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference, Powell said, “If the economy evolves as expected, that would mean two more cuts by the end of the year, totaling an additional half percentage point.”

For Tuesday’s session, investors are focused on the US JOLTS Job Openings data for August and the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September, due at 14:00 GMT. Economists forecast that job openings will remain steady at approximately 7.67 million, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve slightly to 47.5 from 47.2, though this would still signal contraction in the factory sector.

Market Movers: Pound Sterling Gains as BoE Caution on Inflation Persists

The Pound Sterling is performing strongly against its major counterparts on Tuesday. The currency has gained momentum as market bets on a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in November have cooled following remarks from BoE external policymaker Megan Greene.

Greene, who voted to keep rates unchanged in the last two meetings, noted that the UK’s consumption-driven recovery could re-ignite inflationary pressures. She warned that the recent drop in headline inflation to the BoE’s 2% target was primarily due to temporary lower oil prices, while inflation in the service sector remains elevated at 5.6%, a concern for BoE policymakers. Despite this, she expressed confidence that inflation is trending in the right direction, according to Bloomberg.

Market participants now expect the BoE to cut rates one more time in the final quarter of 2024, likely at the December meeting. The BoE initiated its normalization process with a 25 bps rate cut on August 1 but held rates steady in September.

Looking ahead, a key event for the Pound Sterling will be BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s speech at 14:00 GMT, which could offer more clarity on the BoE’s interest rate strategy for the remainder of the year.

Additionally, investors will watch for the revised estimate of the S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI for September, scheduled for release at 08:30 GMT, with expectations that it will remain unchanged at 51.5.

Technical Outlook: Pound Sterling Sideways Near 1.3400

The Pound Sterling is trading sideways near the 1.3400 resistance level against the US Dollar during European trading hours. The short-term outlook for GBP/USD remains positive, as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), near 1.3250, is trending higher.

GBP/USD maintains a bullish structure, having broken above a trendline drawn from the December 28, 2023, high of 1.2828, a breakout achieved on August 21.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped slightly but remains above 60, indicating ongoing bullish momentum.

Upside resistance for GBP/USD is expected near the psychological level of 1.3500, while support lies at the 20-day EMA near 1.3235, a critical level for GBP bulls.

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Australian Dollar Strengthens as US Dollar Weakens Ahead of Fed Powell Speech

Australian Dollar Gains as US Dollar Remains Soft Ahead of Fed Powell’s Speech

Australian Dollar Gains as US Dollar Remains Soft Ahead of Fed Powell’s Speech

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its gains for a third consecutive session on Monday, despite mixed data from China, Australia’s largest trading partner. The rise in AUD is supported by growing expectations of further US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in November, weakening the US Dollar (USD) and lifting the AUD/USD pair.

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3 in September from 50.4, signaling contraction. Meanwhile, the Caixin Services PMI also fell, hitting 50.3, down from 51.6 in August, pointing to a services sector slowdown.

The US Dollar has been under pressure following the release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August, which rose just 0.1% MoM, below the expected 0.2%. This aligns with the Fed’s outlook of easing inflation, raising the likelihood of an aggressive rate-cutting cycle. Markets now assign a 42.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 57.1% chance of a 50-basis-point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Market Movers: AUD Boosted by RBA’s Hawkish Stance

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 in September, surpassing expectations. However, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.0, down from 50.3, falling short of forecasts. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate at 4.35% for the seventh consecutive meeting, maintaining a hawkish stance to curb inflation, which supports AUD strength.

Additionally, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem stated that the Fed could begin cutting interest rates “gradually” after a half-point reduction in September, noting that a faster pace might be needed if the economy weakens further.

On the global stage, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers acknowledged China’s economic slowdown but welcomed its new stimulus measures as a positive development for global growth.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Shows Bullish Momentum

The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6920, holding above the lower boundary of an ascending channel, suggesting continued bullish momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, confirming the bullish sentiment. The pair could target the 0.7000 level at the upper boundary of the channel, with a potential break signaling further upside. However, a failure to break above could lead to a pullback. On the downside, a break below 0.6920 could weaken the bullish bias, with the next support around the 0.6853 level.

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Japanese Yen Drops as No Candidate Secures Majority

Japanese Yen Drops as No Candidate Secures Majority in LDP Voting First Round

Japanese Yen Drops as No Candidate Secures Majority in LDP Voting First Round

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken for the third consecutive session, following the release of Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday. Investors are concerned that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may delay further rate hikes, adding pressure to the JPY.

Tokyo’s CPI for September showed a year-over-year increase of 2.2%, down from the 2.6% rise in August. Core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, remained stable at 1.6% YoY, while the CPI excluding fresh food increased 2.0%, in line with expectations but lower than the previous 2.4%.

The US Dollar may face challenges amid dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials. Traders are now watching the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for further direction.

Market Movers: Japanese Yen Declines Amid Uncertainty Over BoJ Policy

In the first round of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, leading candidates included former Defense Chief Shigeru Ishiba, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, who garnered 154, 136, and 181 votes, respectively. A majority of 368 votes was required, leading to a run-off between Ishiba and Takaichi.

Meanwhile, US economic data continues to impact the markets. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2 grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, as per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, while the GDP Price Index rose 2.5%. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 20 came in at 218K, below the consensus of 225K and the previous week’s revised 222K.

BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes indicated the importance of vigilance against inflation risks, with some members suggesting a rate hike to 0.25% might be appropriate to adjust monetary support. Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the BoJ has time to assess the economy before making further policy changes, citing Japan’s deeply negative real interest rates, which continue to boost the economy.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Holds Above 145.00, Bullish Momentum

USD/JPY is trading around 145.10 on Friday, showing bullish momentum within an ascending channel. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above 50, signaling continued bullish sentiment.

If the upward trend continues, the USD/JPY pair could test the upper boundary of the channel near 146.90, followed by the five-week high of 147.21 recorded in early September. On the downside, the pair may find support at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 143.89, aligning with the channel’s lower boundary.

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Indian Stocks Expected to Open Marginally

Indian Stocks Expected to Open Marginally Up as Modi Heads Towards Third Term

Indian Stocks Expected to Open Marginally Up as Modi Heads Towards Third Term

Indian shares were poised for a slight increase at Thursday’s opening, following a notable rally in the previous session that marked the largest gain in over three years. This optimism comes as Prime Minister Narendra Modi is anticipated to secure a third term in office. As of early Thursday morning, the Gift Nifty was recorded at 22,677.00, suggesting a modest rise from Wednesday’s close of 22,620.35 for the benchmark Nifty 50.

On Wednesday, the National Democratic Alliance officially chose Modi to continue leading the government. The election results, however, were unexpected, requiring Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party to depend on its alliance partners to maintain power.

The trading session on Wednesday saw the NSE Nifty 50 and the S&P Sensex each closing over 3% higher, a significant recovery from Tuesday’s nearly 6% drop. The National Stock Exchange of India also experienced a record-breaking day, processing the highest ever number of transactions in its history, with 19.71 billion orders and 285.5 million transactions.

Despite the positive market performance, foreign institutional investors net sold Indian shares valued at 56.56 billion rupees ($678.2 million), according to provisional data from the NSE.

The political developments are expected to keep the markets attentive to the formation of the new government and the upcoming Reserve Bank of India policy meeting. Furthermore, significant economic indicators are on the horizon with India’s monetary policy decision and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report both due on Friday.

Sector-wise, consumer and auto stocks are likely to garner interest on Thursday, following favorable evaluations from several brokerages. These sectors are preferred over capital goods, state-run companies, industrials, and utilities, with an expectation of potential delays in reforms impacting these areas. This strategic shift reflects broader market anticipations and investor strategies in light of the evolving political and economic landscape.

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Asian Stocks Fall

Asian Stocks Fall; India’s Index Plunges 8%

Asian Stocks Fall; India’s Index Plunges 8%

Asian shares declined on Tuesday, with significant movement seen in India’s Sensex, which plunged by up to 8%. The sharp decline came as investors opted to sell shares and secure profits following exit polls that favored Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a third term. By mid-afternoon, the Sensex had recovered slightly but was still down 7.1% at 71,020.45. The final vote count of India’s extensive six-week national election indicated a lower-than-anticipated seat tally for Modi’s National Democratic Alliance, though it still maintained a lead over its main competitor.

Elsewhere in Asia, market movements were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dipped slightly by 0.2% to 38,837.46, while South Korea’s Kospi fell by 0.8% to 2,660.69. Contrasting these declines, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index bucked the trend with a gain of 0.5%, reaching 18,494.28. The Shanghai Composite index in China also saw a minor drop of 0.1% to 3,076.96.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index decreased by 0.3% to 7,740.80, and Taiwan’s Taiex mirrored this loss with a 0.8% decline.

Turning to the global scene, U.S. markets showed a mixed performance the previous day. The S&P 500 slightly increased by 0.1% to 5,283.40, despite most stocks in the index falling. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 0.3% drop to 38,571.03, whereas the Nasdaq composite demonstrated growth, rising by 0.6% to 16,828.67.

Complementing these stock movements, oil prices saw a decrease, and U.S. futures edged higher, signaling varied investor sentiments across different asset classes. This combination of events reflects the interconnected nature of global markets, reacting sensitively to geopolitical developments and economic forecasts.

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European Futures Decline Amidst Rising Yields and Market Downturn

European Futures Decline Amidst Rising Yields and Market Downturn

European stock markets appeared poised to mirror the declines seen in Asia, as rising US Treasury yields near this year’s peak continued to restrain risk appetite among investors. The Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell by 0.4%, reflecting a similar downturn in US equity futures. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped to a three-week nadir, with markets in South Korea and Japan experiencing significant losses.

This week marks a challenging period for global equities, potentially recording their poorest performance since mid-April. The mood has been dampened further by recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, which have cast doubt on the anticipated timeline for interest rate reductions. This uncertainty, coupled with high bond yields following a lackluster $44 billion auction of seven-year US Treasury securities, has contributed to market anxieties.

As Friday approaches, investors are keenly awaiting inflation reports from both the US and Europe. These reports are critical as they may significantly influence the future direction of monetary policies. According to Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia Pty Ltd., “The market is currently overshadowed by the bond market’s influence and rising yields. The primary concern now shifts towards managing the potential risks of unexpectedly high inflation figures from the US or Europe.”

In the Asian markets, Treasury yields saw a slight decline after a significant increase of six basis points in the previous session. The weak auction results have exacerbated concerns that financing the US’s substantial deficit will continue to push yields higher, especially as the Federal Reserve shows no immediate signs of reducing rates. Meanwhile, Australian bond yields have also risen.

The US dollar strengthened for the third consecutive session, adversely affecting Asian currencies. In Japan, the yen showed some recovery after dropping past 157.52 against the dollar, a move that had earlier prompted suspected intervention by monetary authorities. Japanese 10-year bond yields also managed to recover from earlier losses.

In China, the onshore yuan remained stable after hitting its lowest since November the previous day. In South Africa, the rand continued to weaken as the country progressed with its election vote count.

Eric Johnston from Cantor Fitzgerald noted, “The primary drivers of rising bond yields seem to be the bond supply and the ongoing large deficits rather than concerns over inflation or a robust economy.”

Amidst these broader economic indicators, the New Zealand government announced tax cuts in line with its campaign promises, despite the Treasury projecting larger deficits and a postponed fiscal surplus. On the corporate front, Chinese regulators are reportedly set to levy a record fine on PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP over its audit practices for China Evergrande Group. Additionally, Brookfield is reportedly nearing an agreement to acquire a majority stake in French renewable energy firm Neoen SA, valuing the company at approximately €6.1 billion.

In the commodities market, oil prices stabilized following a drop on Wednesday, as market participants awaited further data from US stockpiles and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting to gauge the oil supply and demand dynamics more accurately.

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Australian Dollar Struggles as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of US PPI Release

Mixed Stocks, Dollar Weakens Ahead of Inflation Report

Mixed Stocks, Dollar Weakens Ahead of Inflation Report

European shares were poised for modest gains, tracking mild increases in Asian markets as the dollar weakened ahead of key inflation data expected to impact global monetary policy. Futures for European and US stocks showed slight rises, while the 10-year Treasury yield held steady. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific index aimed for a second consecutive day of gains, albeit below earlier peaks.

The Bloomberg dollar index declined for the third consecutive day, dropping against all major Group-of-10 currencies as speculation grew over potential US interest rate cuts. According to a currency strategist, expectations of moderating US core inflation, improvements in Chinese PMIs, and potential increases in euro-zone inflation could lead to further weakening of the USD later in the week.

In China, property stocks reversed earlier gains, falling during the late Asian trading session after Shanghai reduced down-payment ratios and minimum mortgage requirements, echoing moves by other major cities in response to central government support for the property sector.

This week, traders are set to analyze a series of inflation reports from countries including Australia, Japan, the euro area, and the US. Japan reported a 2.8% rise in April producer prices, exceeding forecasts. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to release its April CPI expectations, with further commentary anticipated from ECB official Klaas Knot.

Amid mixed signals from ECB officials about interest rate cuts, the ECB’s Chief Economist indicated that monetary policy would remain restrictive through 2024 despite potential rate reductions. Although a June rate cut by the ECB is largely anticipated, the future direction remains uncertain amid ongoing concerns about wage growth and geopolitical tensions.

Market analysts suggest that the upcoming US session could trigger more market movements, influenced by end-of-month dynamics and the upcoming release of the PCE Index, a key gauge of inflation watched by the Federal Reserve. The Fed Chair emphasized the need for more data confirming inflation is moving towards the 2% target before considering policy easing. Several US central bankers are scheduled to speak throughout the week, potentially providing further insights into future monetary policy.

In commodities, gold prices stabilized, while oil prices climbed in anticipation of an OPEC+ meeting and the onset of the US summer driving season. Copper prices also rallied, bolstered by efforts to support the Chinese property market and a weakening dollar. Meanwhile, wheat prices reached a nine-month high due to concerns over diminishing supplies.

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Mixed Asian Shares as China’s Stocks Fall Post-Wall Street Retreat

Mixed Asian Shares as China’s Stocks Fall Post-Wall Street Retreat

Asian stock markets experienced mixed results on Thursday, influenced by various global economic signals and corporate news. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index saw an increase of 1.1%, reaching 39,054.81, buoyed by positive earnings reports from Nvidia, which notably exceeded expectations. In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined by 0.5% to 7,807.10, while South Korea’s Kospi made a modest gain of 0.2%, settling at 2,728.43. However, markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai faced downturns, with the Hang Seng Index falling 1.3% to 18,942.77 and the Shanghai Composite losing 1.0% to 3,126.70.

The semiconductor sector received a particular boost following Nvidia’s announcement of a dramatic increase in profits, with quarterly net income soaring to $14.88 billion—more than seven times the figure from the previous year. Nvidia’s revenue also more than tripled, fueled by its pivotal role in the burgeoning artificial intelligence sector.

Meanwhile, U.S. markets retracted from recent highs amidst renewed concerns about interest rates. The S&P 500 dropped 0.3% to 5,307.01, pulling back from a record-setting day. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.5% to 39,671.04, and the Nasdaq composite edged down by 0.2% to 16,801.54.

Investor sentiment waned later in the day following the release of minutes from the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting. The minutes indicated that controlling inflation might take longer than anticipated, based on higher-than-expected early readings this year. Despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s previous indications that rate cuts were more probable than hikes, the minutes revealed that some Fed officials were open to raising rates if inflation escalated, casting doubts on the likelihood of a rate reduction this year.

Additional corporate news also affected the market dynamics. Lululemon Athletica’s stock fell 7.2% after the company announced the departure of its chief product officer, Sun Choe, who is leaving to pursue other opportunities. The company also outlined a new organizational structure that eliminates the chief product officer role, reflecting strategic adjustments within the firm.

These developments highlight the complexity of current financial markets, where investor reactions to corporate performances and economic indicators continue to drive significant fluctuations in stock values across the globe.

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Nasdaq Hits Record High

Nasdaq Hits Record High; JPMorgan Weighs on Dow’s Performance

Nasdaq Hits Record High; JPMorgan Weighs on Dow’s Performance

US stocks experienced a modest climb on Monday, with the Nasdaq Composite achieving a new record close, propelled by the anticipation surrounding Nvidia’s forthcoming earnings report later in the week. Nvidia’s stock rallied in the run-up to its earnings release, highlighting the market’s high expectations for the leading chipmaker, particularly in the realm of artificial intelligence.

Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 index edged up by 0.1%, showing a restrained but positive movement. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a decline, dropping below the 40,000 mark with a 0.5% decrease. This was largely due to a significant fall in JPMorgan shares, which tumbled following a statement from its CEO regarding an impending retirement, stirring uncertainty among investors.

The market’s overall gain reflects growing investor optimism that the Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates soon, despite ongoing cautionary statements from Fed officials. This sentiment was bolstered as even one of Wall Street’s more pessimistic forecasters revised his outlook upwards for the S&P 500 after the index reached record levels.

However, the sustainability of this bullish outlook remains a pivotal concern. Investors are keenly awaiting the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting, scheduled for Wednesday. These minutes are expected to provide critical insights into the Fed’s future policy directions.

On the policy front, recent remarks from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr highlighted disappointing inflation figures from the first quarter as justification for maintaining the current interest rates. Their stance suggests a wait-and-see approach, giving existing policies more time to take effect before any new adjustments are made.

The upcoming quarterly results from Nvidia are highly anticipated and are seen as a potential catalyst for further rallies in the stock market. Analysts have set towering expectations for Nvidia’s performance, predicting a staggering 400% growth in earnings and a 240% increase in revenue. The spotlight is on whether Nvidia can meet these high expectations and continue its trajectory of impressive growth.

Adding to the complex market dynamics, commodity markets have shown significant rallies, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressures. Copper prices recently exceeded $11,000 a ton for the first time, driven by fears of a supply shortage, while gold prices surged to approximately $2,450 an ounce, reaching near-record levels.

As the market navigates these various economic signals, investors remain vigilant, closely monitoring Federal Reserve communications and corporate earnings to gauge the potential impact on future market movements.

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Asian Shares Rise Following Wall St Records

Asian Shares Rise Following Wall St Records

Asian Shares Rise Following Wall St Records

Asian shares advanced on Thursday, buoyed by a rally in U.S. stocks that reached record highs amid hopes that inflation is easing. U.S. consumer prices in April were 3.4% higher than a year earlier, a slight improvement from March’s 3.5% inflation rate. This deceleration relieved investors, who had been concerned by worse-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) reports earlier in the year. The latest data bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve might reduce its main interest rate this year.

In Asia, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index rose 0.8% to 38,676.83, despite the Japanese economy contracting at a 2% annual rate in the first quarter. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index increased by 1.6% to 19,369.06, while the Shanghai Composite index gained 0.5% to 3,134.97. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced 1.6% to 7,874.70, and South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.8% to 2,751.32. Taiwan’s Taiex was up 0.7%, and India’s Sensex rose 0.5%.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 surged 1.2% to close at 5,308.15, surpassing its previous high from a month and a half ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.9% to 39,908.00, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.4% to 16,742.39, setting a new record. Stocks benefiting from lower interest rates led the market, with homebuilders like Lennar, D.R. Horton, and PulteGroup rallying over 5% on hopes of easier mortgage rates. High-growth stocks, including Nvidia, which gained 3.6%, also performed well.

Real-estate stocks in the S&P 500 climbed 1.7%, while utility stocks rose 1.4%, as their dividends became more attractive compared to lower-yielding bonds. Petco Health + Wellness surged 27.9% after appointing Glenn Murphy, CEO of investment firm FIS Holdings, as its executive chairman. However, GameStop and AMC Entertainment saw declines, with GameStop falling 18.9% and AMC dropping 20% after announcing the issuance of 23.3 million shares to clear $163.9 million in debt.

A report showed no growth in U.S. retail spending in April compared to March, against expectations of a 0.4% increase. While slowing retail sales could help reduce inflation pressure, weaker consumer spending could undermine the economy’s resilience. Lower-income households are particularly under pressure.

In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.34% from 4.45%, and the two-year yield fell to 4.72% from 4.82%, reflecting increased expectations of a Fed rate cut. Traders now see a nearly 95% chance of at least one rate cut this year, up from just below 90% the previous day.

In early trading on Thursday, U.S. benchmark crude oil rose 42 cents to $79.05 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 39 cents to $83.14 per barrel. The U.S. dollar weakened to 154.03 Japanese yen from 154.88 yen, and the euro edged up to $1.0888 from $1.0885.

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Gold Price Recovers Some Losses

Gold Price Recovers Some Losses, Still Below Key 50-Day SMA Resistance

Gold Price Recovers Some Losses, Still Below Key 50-Day SMA Resistance

During Tuesday’s Asian trading session, gold prices (XAU/USD) experienced some buying, partially offsetting Monday’s modest losses. This revival is driven by U.S. macroeconomic data that suggest easing inflation pressures, heightening anticipation of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September. These developments provide some support for gold, which does not yield income but often gains when yield-bearing assets like bonds are less attractive. Nonetheless, the metal continues to operate within a familiar range from the past week and remains below the crucial 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling that bullish traders should remain cautious.

Recently, the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance, predicting only one interest rate cut this year. This position has been reinforced by multiple Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, maintaining high U.S. Treasury bond yields. These conditions bolster the U.S. Dollar (USD), which, in turn, could limit any significant upward movement in gold prices. Investors and traders are encouraged to await sustained buying before determining that the recent corrective downturn from the record highs in May is concluding and before preparing for potential further gains.

The outlook for gold is tethered not only to U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve policies but also to broader global economic dynamics. With inflationary pressures showing signs of subsiding, there could be less impetus for the Fed to maintain higher interest rates, traditionally a scenario that favors gold. However, the complexities of global finance, including ongoing international tensions and economic recoveries, continue to play a significant role in shaping market sentiment and the subsequent demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Moving forward, market participants will likely monitor upcoming U.S. economic reports and statements from FOMC members closely. These insights will help gauge the strength of the dollar and the trajectory of interest rates, which are pivotal in determining the direction of gold prices. As such, the immediate future of gold trading appears to hinge on a delicate balance of economic indicators, monetary policy expectations, and global market sentiment.

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Gold Price Stays Low Amid Rate Concerns

Gold Price Stays Low Amid Rate Concerns, Rising US Dollar Demand

Gold Price Stays Low Amid Rate Concerns, Rising US Dollar Demand

During early trading in Europe on Tuesday, the gold price (XAU/USD) faced renewed selling pressure, diminishing some of the modest recovery gains it had made from the previous day. These gains had lifted the price from a low of $2,287—the lowest in over a month—sparked by optimistic US employment data. This development has led investors to reconsider their expectations for an impending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, resulting in sustained high US Treasury bond yields and a robust US Dollar (USD). The dollar reached a multi-week high on Monday, which continues to dampen the demand for gold.

Additionally, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) made a significant shift by sharply curtailing its gold purchasing activities in May. This decision marked the end of an extensive one-and-a-half-year period of consistent buying, diverting investment flows away from gold. Despite these pressures, gold prices are finding some support against deeper losses due to ongoing political uncertainty in Europe and persistent geopolitical risks. These factors are causing traders to adopt a cautious stance, preferring to wait for further economic indicators.

Key upcoming events that traders are watching include the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, both due on Wednesday. These events are highly anticipated as they could provide clearer signals about the Fed’s plans regarding rate cuts. The outcome of these developments will be crucial in shaping the short-term direction of gold prices.

Gold, as a non-yielding asset, typically finds it challenging to compete with yield-bearing investments when interest rates are high. The current strength of the US dollar, fueled by high treasury yields and the Fed’s monetary policy stance, continues to exert downward pressure on gold prices. However, the precious metal’s status as a safe-haven asset amid financial and geopolitical instability could help mitigate some of the negative impacts from these economic factors.

Investors and traders are therefore closely monitoring these economic indicators and central bank decisions, which will play a pivotal role in determining the near-term pricing and investment attractiveness of gold in the current economic landscape.

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Gold Prices Hit Two-Week High as Buyers

Gold Prices Hit Two-Week High as Buyers Bet on Fed Rate Cut

Gold Prices Hit Two-Week High as Buyers Bet on Fed Rate Cut

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have seen consistent buying interest for the second consecutive day, reaching a two-week peak around the $2,373 mark during the early European trading session on Thursday. The momentum is distinctly bullish, fueled by expectations that major central banks worldwide might reduce borrowing costs to stimulate economic growth.

This bullish sentiment was reinforced when the Bank of Canada (BoC), on Wednesday, reduced its benchmark interest rate for the first time in four years from a more than two-decade high, expressing concerns over a decelerating economy. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to lower its interest rates for the first time since March 2016 at its policy meeting conclusion later today.

On another front, market participants are increasingly betting on a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in response to signs of a cooling U.S. economy. These expectations have kept U.S. Treasury bond yields at their lowest in over two months, which has undermined any attempts by the U.S. Dollar (USD) to capitalize on its modest recovery gains observed over the previous two days. Moreover, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to support the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

Despite these favorable conditions, the upside potential for gold prices appears somewhat capped. Investors remain cautious, with many holding their positions in anticipation of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday. This key economic indicator could provide significant insights into the health of the U.S. labor market and influence the Fed’s monetary policy decisions moving forward.

Overall, the global economic landscape, characterized by potential rate cuts from major central banks and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, forms a supportive backdrop for gold. However, the near-term trajectory of gold prices will likely be influenced by upcoming economic data releases and policy announcements, which are keenly awaited by traders and investors alike to gauge the next significant move in the precious metals market.

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WTI Falls Below $74 Amid OPEC+ Plans

WTI Falls Below $74 Amid OPEC+ Plans to Reduce Production Cuts

WTI Falls Below $74 Amid OPEC+ Plans to Reduce Production Cuts

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices continued their downward trend for the fifth consecutive day, trading at approximately $73.90 per barrel during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. This recent decline in crude oil prices stems from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, announcing a plan to gradually ease oil production cuts.

OPEC+ has scheduled a phased rollback of their voluntary production cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), beginning in October. By December, it is anticipated that over 500,000 bpd will re-enter the market, culminating in a total of 1.8 million bpd by June 2025. This move is aimed at stabilizing the oil market which has experienced significant fluctuations.

In a related development, the United States has announced the purchase of an additional 3 million barrels of oil for the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This decision, made by the Department of Energy, is part of a broader effort to gradually replenish the reserve following its largest-ever depletion in 2022. Last year, under directives from President Joe Biden, 180 million barrels were released over six months to help manage fuel prices in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which had spiked global oil prices.

Additionally, recent U.S. economic data revealed some easing in price pressures. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for April showed a softening in inflation, although this did not prompt an immediate rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed’s hesitation suggests that more time may be needed to meet its inflation targets. Concurrently, the persistently high interest rates are casting a shadow over the U.S. economic outlook, curbing oil demand as higher borrowing costs weigh on economic activities.

Overall, these developments reflect a complex interplay between global oil supply adjustments by OPEC+, strategic reserve policies of the U.S., and broader economic conditions, all of which are contributing to the current trends in oil market dynamics.

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WTI Crude Oil Prices Dip Below $68.50 Amid Stronger USD

WTI Nears $79 as Key US Economic Data Looms

WTI Nears $79 as Key US Economic Data Looms

In the Asian trading session on Thursday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell slightly to around $79.00 per barrel. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming economic reports, including today’s US Crude Oil Stocks Change report from the Energy Information Administration. Expectations are set for a drawdown of 1.9 million barrels for the week ending May 24, contrasting with the previous addition of 1.825 million barrels. Additionally, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock last week reported a significant decrease of 6.49 million barrels, following a 2.48 million barrel increase the week before.

Attention is also focused on the upcoming June 2 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, known as OPEC+. The meeting is critical as members will consider extending voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second half of 2024. It is widely anticipated that the group will agree to maintain these supply reductions.

Further influencing the oil market are comments from Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, which have stirred concerns about further interest rate hikes. Kashkari noted the possibility of rate increases, casting doubt on the progress of disinflation. Such hawkish monetary policy stances tend to negatively impact the economic outlook and, consequently, depress oil prices.

Additionally, the US dollar has strengthened on the back of rising Treasury yields, fueled by investor risk aversion ahead of significant economic data releases. The forthcoming US Gross Domestic Product Annualized data for Q1 and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data set for release on Friday are critical. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially curbing demand.

These elements combined paint a complex picture for WTI prices, as market participants weigh supply dynamics against broader economic indicators and monetary policy developments.

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WTI Crude Oil Holds Modest Losses Above $70, Bearish Bias Persists

WTI Nears $78.50 as US Inflation Data, OPEC+ Meeting Loom

WTI Nears $78.50 as US Inflation Data, OPEC+ Meeting Loom

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edged higher as traders anticipate the upcoming meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia (OPEC+), scheduled for June 2. The meeting will address whether to extend the current voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second half of 2024. WTI was trading around $78.70 per barrel during Tuesday’s Asian trading session.

The rise in oil prices is also fueled by increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, an Israeli airstrike in Rafah, Gaza, reportedly caused a significant fire, resulting in 45 casualties. This incident has intensified international reactions and added a geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. Additionally, the reported death of an Egyptian soldier in related strikes has further contributed to the risk concerns impacting oil markets.

Market focus is also on the US economic indicators, with traders awaiting the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data on Friday. This inflation measure is closely watched by the Federal Reserve to guide its monetary policy decisions. Recent comments from Fed officials suggest a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need for more substantial evidence of inflation trending towards the 2% annual target. Persistently high interest rates could dampen the US economic outlook and curtail oil demand.

Furthermore, developments in Iran could influence oil supply dynamics. According to reports from Iran’s Tasnim news agency, an economic council led by Iran’s interim president Mohammad Mokhber has approved a plan to boost the country’s oil production from 3.6 million barrels per day to 4 million barrels per day.

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Gold Price

Gold Prices Fall Further Due to Fed’s Hawkish Outlook

Gold Prices Fall Further Due to Fed’s Hawkish Outlook

On Wednesday, gold prices faced downward pressure as sellers stepped in, influenced by the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which were perceived as markedly more hawkish than earlier communications. This interpretation suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve may maintain its tight monetary policy stance for a prolonged period. The anticipation of continued restrictive policies bolstered the U.S. dollar, which in turn placed significant selling pressure on gold.

The price trajectory of gold in the coming days could hinge on several key economic indicators and events. Market participants are particularly keen on the upcoming preliminary readings of the U.S. Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May. Should these indicators come in weaker than expected, they could fuel speculation that the Federal Reserve might ease up on interest rates, potentially providing a lift to gold prices.

Moreover, ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent uncertainties are likely to continue supporting the precious metal by limiting its downside. Despite the pressures from a stronger dollar, factors such as unresolved geopolitical conflicts and sustained high inflation are elements that traditionally drive investors towards the safety of gold.

In addition to the PMI data, several other important economic reports and events are on the horizon, which could influence gold prices. These include the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and New Home Sales data. Additionally, comments from the Federal Reserve’s officials, particularly from Fed’s Bostic, will be closely watched for further insights into the central bank’s future policy direction.

Investors and traders in gold will need to navigate a complex landscape of economic data and Fed communications in the short term. While the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve poses challenges, the underlying economic uncertainties and the traditional role of gold as a safe-haven asset may provide some support to its prices. As such, the balance of these dynamics will be crucial in determining the near-term movements in the gold market.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, keeping the USD/JPY pair firm around the 147.00 mark during the Asian session. A stronger US Dollar and persistent concerns over rising trade tensions are weighing heavily on the Yen, as markets brace for the impact of US tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1. 

Former US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese imports, coupled with the threat of retaliatory action, has sparked renewed fears over Japan’s economic resilience. The country’s Q1 GDP contracted, real wages in May dropped at their steepest pace in nearly two years, and political uncertainty is rising ahead of the July 20 House of Councillors election. Recent polls suggest the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may struggle to retain its majority, further dampening investor confidence. 

These developments have led traders to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. The combination of domestic headwinds and external pressure is weakening the JPY, while the US Dollar continues to gain on expectations that rising tariffs will stoke inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. 

The Fed’s June decision to hold interest rates steady, along with a strong US jobs report, has reinforced the belief that rate cuts may be delayed until at least October. The FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, will be closely watched for insights into the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets currently anticipate up to 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end. 

Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds 

Technically, USD/JPY’s break and close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) — for the first time since February — signals potential for further gains. Positive momentum on the daily chart supports a move toward the 147.60–147.65 resistance area, with the 148.00 handle, a key June high, in sight. 

On the downside, immediate support lies near 146.50, with the 100-day SMA just below 146.00 acting as a critical pivot. A decisive break below this level could shift momentum in favor of bears, opening room for deeper losses. 

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NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5700 on weaker US PMI data

During the early Asian session on Thursday, the NZD/USD pair was trading slightly higher at 0.5690. The Greenback falls against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as US economic data disappoints. Investors will keenly monitor developments in the rekindled trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. 

The weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) could weigh on the Greenback and generate a tailwind for the pair. The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3.

On the other hand, New Zealand’s fourth-quarter employment report will put the RBNZ on pace to decrease the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% this month. Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday that the country’s unemployment rate increased to 5.1% in Q4, up from 4.8% the previous quarter. This result was a four-year high and exceeded the 25-year average of 4.8%. Rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may decrease interest rates may further impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

“In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% at the February 19 meeting and the policy rate to through around 3.00% over the next 12 months. Bottom line: NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD,” noted Société Générale’s FX analysts. 

On Tuesday, the finance ministry in China unveiled a package of tariffs on various US products such as crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos in a sharp response to an announcement made by US President Donald Trump imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Further, China served notice to several companies including Google for potential sanctions in response to Trump’s tariffs. Any sign of uncertainty or a rising trade war tension may see the China-proxy Kiwi being dragged lower, as China remains one of the major trading partners to New Zealand.

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JPY Recovers Losses vs. USD, Bullish Outlook Intact

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses Against USD; Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

The Japanese yen (JPY) cut some of its intraday losses against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, bringing the USD/JPY pair back below the mid-155.00s during the early European session. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions showed conversations about the possibility of further hikes in interest rates. Furthermore, Tokyo’s core inflation increased at the quickest annual rate in nearly a year, raising expectations of further policy tightening by the BoJ, which supports the JPY.

Beyond monetary policy, narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economies, including the US, alongside a broader risk-off sentiment, provide additional support to the safe-haven JPY. However, concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s newly announced trade tariffs limit the yen’s upside. Meanwhile, the USD remains broadly strong, allowing the USD/JPY pair to maintain its positive momentum for a second consecutive day, ahead of the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI report.

Yen Gains Traction Amid BoJ Rate Hike Bets and Trade War Fears

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, effective Tuesday.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, and China’s foreign ministry all replied quickly, indicating probable retaliation. The US Dollar continues to climb, approaching a two-year high last hit in January, supporting the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

The Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions, released on Monday, showed that policymakers are thinking about additional rate hikes, though this has failed to appreciably lift the JPY.

Board members of the Bank of Japan stressed the need of continuing to raise interest rates if economic conditions and inflation remain stable.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the government is closely monitoring the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the yen amid concerns over potential economic fallout.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reiterated Japan’s commitment to achieving the BoJ’s 2% inflation target while implementing measures to offset rising living costs.

The US-Japan yield spread remains near a multi-week low, which, coupled with risk aversion, could help stabilize the yen in the near term.

Investors now turn their focus to key US economic data, starting with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Near 156.25; Bears in Control Below This Level

From a technical standpoint, last week’s strong rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally and the subsequent upside move favor bullish traders. However, additional gains beyond 156.00 may encounter resistance near last week’s swing high at 156.25. A sustained break above this level could spark a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards:

  • 156.70-156.75 resistance
  • 157.00 psychological mark
  • 157.60 horizontal barrier
  • Potential extension towards 158.00, with an ultimate target at the 158.85-158.90 multi-month high from January 10

Conversely, on the downside:-

  • 155.00 serves as immediate support
  • Below this, watch for key levels at 154.55-154.50 and 154.00
  • A break below the 153.70 January low could accelerate the decline towards 153.30 and eventually 153.00

While the JPY is exhibiting some resilience, the overall trend remains unpredictable, with market participants intently watching economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

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Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rise, Fed Decision Looms

Australian Dollar Slides Amid Rising Odds of RBA Rate Cuts, Fed Decision in Focus

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak for a third consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD), weighed down by softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, matching the previous quarter but missing the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI eased to 2.4% from 2.8% in Q3, below the market forecast of 2.5%. Despite December’s monthly CPI ticking up to 2.5% YoY, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2%-3% target range. Meanwhile, the RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI slowed to 3.2% YoY, its weakest pace in three years, slightly under the anticipated 3.3%.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed confidence that “the worst of the inflation challenge is behind us” and that a “soft landing” is increasingly likely. The cooling inflation strengthens the case for an RBA rate cut in February. The central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing the need for inflation to “sustainably” return to target before considering a rate reduction.

AUD Pressured by Risk Aversion, Trump’s Tariff Threats

The AUD faces additional headwinds from risk-off sentiment following tariff threats by former US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of key commodities, including computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to boost US manufacturing.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm around 108.00 as traders turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, indicate near-certainty that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for guidance on future policy shifts.

Concerns over the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies add another layer of uncertainty. US Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino noted, “A number of White House proposals appear inflationary, which could keep the Fed in check.” Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed universal tariffs on US imports starting at 2.5%, with Trump reportedly favoring even higher rates.

China’s Economic Slowdown Adds Pressure on AUD

The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to China’s economic struggles. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1, missing expectations, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.2 from 52.2. As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s weak data weighs heavily on the AUD.

Despite China’s recent stimulus measures, including a $7.25 billion investment in index products and long-term stock investments, concerns persist. Industrial profits fell 3.3% YoY in 2024, marking a third consecutive year of contraction, driven by weak demand, deflationary pressures, and a prolonged property sector slump.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Turns Bearish Below 0.6250

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6230 on Wednesday after breaking below the ascending channel on the daily chart, signaling a shift toward a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, reinforcing downside momentum.

A decisive break below key support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel strengthens the bearish outlook, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward 0.6131—its lowest level since April 2020. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6256. A rebound above this level could reintroduce a bullish bias, with the next upside target near 0.6360.

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US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

The US dollar strengthened significantly against all major currencies after President Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary reignited concerns about potential tariffs, raising fears that trade policies may return to the forefront. Risk-sensitive currencies, particularly those tied to China, saw sharp declines, while the euro weakened amid speculation that the European Union could soon face tariff pressures. Simultaneously, the Japanese yen took a hit as traders hedged against potential US inflation spikes and rising Treasury yields.

This market turbulence followed a Financial Times report indicating that Scott Bessent, the newly appointed Treasury Department official, supports a phased approach to implementing universal tariffs on US imports. The initial proposal suggests starting with a 2.5% tariff rate. However, President Trump hinted at a much broader scope, potentially targeting a range of imports from steel to semiconductor chips and suggesting higher tariff rates over time.

The administration’s “moderate” proposal involves a gradual increase in tariffs, reaching 20% over eight months in increments of 2.5% per month. This timeline has triggered speculation about more extreme scenarios and raised questions about the global trade concessions needed to halt these measures. Bessent’s approach, which allows businesses time to adjust, could also spark a rush of imports and exports to avoid higher future costs.

Amid these developments, financial markets are grappling with the potential outcomes. Traders are assessing whether the proposed tariff measures are fully priced in and evaluating the likelihood of de-escalation through negotiation.

On the positive side, any concessions or agreements that delay or reduce tariffs could stabilize markets. However, the risks of escalating tariffs, particularly if negotiations fail, remain a significant concern. Higher tariffs could disrupt global trade and have far-reaching implications for currency valuations.

While we initially favored long positions on the dollar, the unfolding tariff narrative has introduced significant uncertainty. Staying prepared for sudden shifts in policy and market dynamics is now crucial as the situation continues to evolve.

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Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) ended its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the AUD/USD pair trading flat following the release of mixed Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. As a close trade partner, Australia’s economy is heavily influenced by China’s economic performance.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, down from 50.1 in December, missing market expectations. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 from the previous month’s 52.2. These weaker-than-expected figures suggest a slowdown in China’s economic recovery, weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.

Despite fresh stimulus measures from China aimed at revitalizing its equity markets, the AUD struggled to gain momentum. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a second round of long-term stock investment pilot programs valued at 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). However, these measures have done little to alleviate investor concerns about China’s economic challenges.

Risk Aversion Rises Amid Trump’s Trade Tariff Push

Broader market sentiment took a hit as reports emerged that US President Donald Trump’s advisers are pushing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February 1, bypassing negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s willingness to move swiftly on tariffs follows similar actions taken against Colombia, raising fears of escalating trade tensions and dampening demand for riskier assets like the Australian Dollar.

Adding to the negative outlook, China’s Industrial Profits declined by 3.3% year-over-year in 2024 to CNY 7,431.05 billion, marking the third consecutive year of contraction. This downturn highlights ongoing economic headwinds, including weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property sector.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Bullish Setup

The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6290 on Monday, showing signs of upward momentum within an ascending channel on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 50, reflecting mild optimism in the market.

On the upside, the pair could retest the psychological resistance level at 0.6300, with the next target near the channel’s upper boundary around 0.6350.

Support levels are found at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6265, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6254. A stronger support lies near the channel’s lower boundary around 0.6240, which could act as a safety net in case of a downside correction.

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NZD/USD Struggles

NZD/USD Struggles Below 0.5700 Amid Trump’s Tariff Plans and Dovish RBNZ Expectations

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading near 0.5675 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces headwinds due to uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China and the dovish outlook of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicated a continued decline in underlying inflation, strengthening expectations of additional rate cuts by the RBNZ. Swap markets now estimate a nearly 90% chance of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut on February 19, building on the two cuts already implemented in this cycle. The RBNZ is projected to deliver a total of 100 bps in rate cuts through the remainder of 2025.

Meanwhile, the downside for the pair could be capped by recent comments from Trump. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump called for immediate interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” Trump said.

Investors are now closely watching for further details on Trump’s tariff policies, alongside key US economic data releases. The flash US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for January will be a key focus later on Friday, along with the release of US Existing Home Sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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