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EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens; FOMC Minutes in Spotlight

The EUR/USD pair slid to around 1.1705 during Wednesday’s Asian session, weighed down by renewed strength in the US Dollar. The Euro came under pressure following fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump, which unsettled global markets and added to investor caution. 

Trump reignited global trade concerns by proposing a 50% tariff on copper imports and hinted at possible duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. While he mentioned that negotiations with both the European Union and China are progressing well, he also warned that a tariff notice to the EU could be issued within days. This uncertainty has dented risk sentiment, putting the Euro under additional stress. 

Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, due later today. Market participants are hoping for more clarity on the Fed’s rate path, especially amid growing expectations of monetary easing. 

At its June meeting, the Fed held interest rates steady, maintaining the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%—a level unchanged since December. However, markets are now pricing in a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end, potentially beginning as early as October. 

Australian Dollar Rises Amid Risk-On Sentiment, Focus Shifts to RBA Rate Decision

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its third straight session of gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following US President Donald Trump’s move to postpone the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. A weaker USD following disappointing US retail sales data has further supported the AUD/USD pair, reigniting speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates later this year despite persistent inflation concerns.

Yet, the AUD’s gains could be capped before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy announcement on Tuesday, as mounting speculation of a cut in interest rates deters sentiment. The RBA is widely expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10%, marking the first rate reduction in four years.

US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Lower Treasury Yields

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down for the third consecutive session, bogged down by weaker US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the DXY is trading around 106.70, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields at 4.26% and 4.47%, respectively.

Statistics released by the US Census Bureau on Friday indicated that US Retail Sales decreased 0.9% in January, a reversal from a revised 0.7% rise in December (earlier reported as 0.4%). The decrease was deeper than the market expectation of a 0.1% decline.

Conversely, Core PPI inflation in the US increased to 3.6% YoY in January, above expectations of 3.3%, though marginally less than the revised 3.7% (initially published as 3.5%). This has consolidated expectations that the Fed will push rate cuts until the second part of the year.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% YoY in January, beating expectations of 2.9%, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) went up to 3.3% from 3.2%, beating expectations of 3.1%. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose 0.5% in January compared to 0.4% in December, with core CPI rising to 0.4% from 0.2% in the same period.

Fed Officials Signal a Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts

In his semi-annual report to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that policymakers “do not need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates, citing a strong labor market and robust economic growth. Powell also warned that Trump’s tariff policies could exert upward pressure on inflation, making it harder for the central bank to lower rates.

A Reuters poll of economists now indicates the Fed will wait until next quarter to cut rates, citing ongoing inflationary concerns. Although previously, some analysts anticipated a March rate cut; the majority now sees at least one rate cut by June, but opinions remain divided.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack echoed this sentiment, saying that maintaining rates at current levels for a long time is probably the right thing to do. Hammack added that a patient strategy will enable the Fed to evaluate economic conditions before altering policy.

Australian Dollar Targets Upper Range Near 0.6400

The AUD/USD currency pair quotes at 0.6360 on Monday, with an uptrend in a rising channel formation. This is indicative of a bullish market inclination, which is also complemented by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 50.

On the upside, the pair could test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6380, followed by the psychological level of 0.6400.

Major levels of support are the nine-day EMA at 0.6310, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6294. A fall below these levels may erode short-term momentum, possibly pulling the pair down to the lower boundary of the rising channel at 0.6270.

Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Holds Gains Ahead of Jobless Claims

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as trade balance data came in below average than expected. Furthermore, risk-off sentiment, fueled by rising US-China trade tensions, weighs on the AUD/USD.

In December, Australia’s trade surplus fell to $5,085 million, falling short of the 7,000 million anticipated and down from $6,792 million the previous year. While exports increased by 1.1% month on month, this was a decrease from November’s 4.2% increase, while imports increased by 5.9% month on month, much more than the previous 1.4% gain.

US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Australian Dollar

Investors are still focused on the current trade stagnation between the United States and China, Australia’s top trading partner. China replied to the United States’ new 10% tax, which went into force on Tuesday, causing global market concern. Regarding the situation, President Trump announced on Monday that he intends to engage with China within the next 24 hours. However, he cautioned that failure to achieve an agreement might result in “very, very substantial” tariffs.

Meanwhile, China’s Commerce Ministry imposed a 15% tax on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, as well as an additional 10% levy on crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos. As a countermeasure, China has implemented export limits on important minerals such as tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, and molybdenum, citing national security concerns.

Amid escalating trade tensions, the Financial Times writes that Chinese firms are quickening preparations to relocate production overseas, mainly to the Middle East, in order to reduce tariff impacts. Some exporters are also considering passing on prices to US consumers or expanding into new markets.

US Dollar Holds Firm Amid Mixed Economic Data

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, remains stable near 107.50, putting further downward pressure on the AUD/USD. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a weaker-than-expected US Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January, below the market forecast of 54.3.

Investors now focus on Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a key economic indicator that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.

The dollar fell on Wednesday, following a poor US Services PMI report. The ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, missing the market forecast of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are anticipating Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Pulls Back From 0.6300, Eyes Key Support

The AUD/USD pair hovers near 0.6280 on Thursday, retreating from the 0.6300 level. However, sustained trading above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) suggests short-term bullish momentum remains intact. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also holding above 50, reinforcing the bullish bias.

On the upside, the pair might target 0.6330, its seven-week high from January 24.

Immediate support comes from the nine-day EMA near 0.6254, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6249.

A breach below these levels might weaken the bullish structure, potentially sending the pair below 0.6087, its lowest level since April 2020, which was recorded on February 3.

Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

The Australian Dollar (AUD) falls for the seventh consecutive day as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens following President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Market volatility remains high as investors monitor the continuing US-China trade talks. Trump signaled he may speak with Chinese officials within the next 24 hours, warning that if a deal isn’t reached, tariffs on China will be “very, very substantial.”

Trump also announced a 30-day tariff relief for Mexico and Canada after their nations agreed to send 10,000 troops to the US border to battle drug trafficking. This move follows the introduction of 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods just two days before.

Chinese Exporters Seek Alternatives

According to the Financial Times, Chinese manufacturers are speeding up plans to transfer production offshore in reaction to US tariffs. Some companies are considering relocating to regions such as the Middle East, while others are looking into passing costs on to US customers or entering new markets.

RBA Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on AUD

The AUD faces additional pressure amid growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut rates in February. The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since November 2023, stressing that inflation must return to its 2%-3% target range before easing policy.

Analysts at Westpac continue to forecast 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, with the market pricing in a more conservative outlook. ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and National Australia Bank (NAB) all anticipate a 25-basis-point (bps) cut in February, with NAB recently revising its forecast forward from May.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Developments

The US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilizes around 108.70 after erasing gains from the previous session. Recent US economic data support the greenback, with ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, exceeding expectations of 49.8.

Inflation indicators remain in focus as the Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 0.3% MoM in December, up from 0.1% in November. Annual PCE inflation increased to 2.6%, while core PCE held steady at 2.8% YoY for the third straight month.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, highlighted that further policy adjustments would be required if there was clear evidence of inflation advance or labor market weakness. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently argued for new uniform taxes on US imports, beginning at 2.5% and progressively increasing—a departure from his previous stance that tariffs cause inflation.

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

AUD/USD trades around 0.6210 on Tuesday, remaining within a descending channel pattern on the daily chart, signaling a bearish bias. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recovering toward the 50 level, suggesting weakening downside momentum. A breakout above the channel, combined with an RSI move above 50, could indicate a shift toward a bullish outlook.

On the downside, the pair may test the descending channel’s lower boundary near 0.6150. A break below this level could drive AUD/USD toward 0.6087, its lowest point since April 2020.

AUD/USD is currently testing its initial resistance, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6225, which aligns with the channel’s upper limit. A decisive move over this level could fuel bullish optimism.

 

Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum; USD/JPY Struggles Below 154.50

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen in early European trading on Thursday, pushing USD/JPY further below 154.50 and closer to its one-month low from earlier this week. Market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again by year-end continue to support the JPY. Additionally, a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields, narrowing the US-Japan yield differential, has further boosted demand for the lower-yielding Yen.

However, concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may limit aggressive JPY buying. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish pause on Wednesday has bolstered the US Dollar (USD), which could provide some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders are now looking ahead to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which may increase market volatility and drive further demand for the safe-haven Yen. Additionally, the Advance US Q4 GDP report could introduce short-term trading opportunities.

JPY Gains on Hawkish BoJ Sentiment Amid Market Uncertainty

  • Minutes from the BoJ’s December meeting, released Wednesday, indicated discussions on using neutral interest rate estimates to guide future rate hikes.
  • Former BoJ board member Makoto Sakurai stated on Tuesday that steady rate increases remain feasible due to rising wages, sustained inflation, and strong economic growth.
  • The Federal Reserve, as expected, held rates steady after its two-day meeting and signaled no immediate plans for rate cuts.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a patient stance, stating there is no urgency to adjust policy and reaffirming that rates will stay elevated amid concerns over Trump’s trade policies, which could fuel inflation.
  • The 10-year US Treasury yield has struggled to sustain gains post-FOMC due to uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s economic policies.
  • Reports from Asahi newspaper indicate that Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is finalizing plans for a February 7 meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington.
  • The ECB’s policy decision later today is expected to introduce further volatility, alongside the Advance US Q4 GDP print.

USD/JPY at Risk of Retesting Monthly Lows Near 153.70

The USD/JPY pair faced renewed selling pressure near the 156.00 level, breaking below the key 155.00 psychological mark, confirming a multi-month ascending channel breakdown. Momentum indicators on the daily chart suggest continued downside movement, making a retest of the 153.70 region—a multi-week low touched on Monday—a strong possibility.

Key resistance levels for a rebound:

  • 155.00 round figure
  • 155.35-155.40 region
  • 156.00 psychological level

Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling pressure near these levels. A sustained break above 156.25 could trigger short-covering, potentially lifting USD/JPY toward 156.70-156.75, with further resistance at 157.00 and 157.60.

For now, the bias remains bearish, with further losses expected if the pair stays below 154.00. Traders will closely watch US data and global central bank policy updates for the next directional move.

Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold price (XAU/USD) faces selling pressure at the beginning of the week, pulling back from its highest level since late October, near the $2,786 mark touched on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) has staged a modest recovery following its worst weekly performance since November 2023, which has weighed on the precious metal. However, the broader market dynamics remain supportive of a bullish outlook, suggesting potential dip-buying opportunities at lower price levels.

Market Sentiment Dampened by Trade Tensions and Fed Speculation

Risk sentiment has deteriorated due to US President Donald Trump’s recent decision to impose tariffs on all imports from Colombia, reigniting fears of a trade war. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates twice by year-end, combined with a flight to safe-haven assets, have triggered a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields. This decline could limit aggressive gains in the USD, potentially cushioning the downside for gold, a non-yielding asset.

Gold Under Pressure from USD Recovery, but Downside Remains Limited

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of currencies, rose nearly 0.25% on Monday, driven by revived concerns over US trade policies. President Trump ordered 25% emergency tariffs on all Colombian imports following the country’s refusal to accept deported migrants from the US, with a threat to raise tariffs to 50% next week. Moreover, reports suggest that Trump’s advisors are considering imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1.

In a recent update, the White House confirmed that Colombia has agreed to Trump’s demands, including the unrestricted acceptance of deported individuals. Meanwhile, Trump has reiterated his call for immediate interest rate cuts, fueling speculation of further easing by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The resulting decline in US Treasury yields may act as a headwind for the USD, potentially limiting the extent of gold’s pullback.

Traders Eye Economic Data for Further Clues

Market participants will turn their focus to key US economic data, including Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, for fresh impetus during the US trading session.

Gold Price Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

Gold’s recent decline may attract dip-buying near the $2,736 support zone, as the technical setup remains bullish. Any further slide below the $2,750-2,748 range could find solid support near $2,736, with additional key levels at $2,725-2,720. A break below $2,720 could trigger technical selling, pushing prices toward the $2,665-2,662 zone.

On the upside, a sustained move above the $2,772-2,773 resistance could open the door for a retest of the recent peak near $2,786. Further buying momentum beyond the $2,800 psychological level could signal a renewed bullish phase, extending the upward trend

Gold Price Remains Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold price (XAU/USD) came under selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday, retreating from the multi-month high of $2,763–$2,764 touched the previous day. This decline halts a three-day winning streak. The US Dollar (USD) gained some strength from its recovery off a monthly low, supported by a rebound in US Treasury bond yields, and the upbeat sentiment in equity markets further dampened demand for the safe-haven metal.

Signs of easing inflation in the US have fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates twice this year, creating a potential headwind for US bond yields and the USD. However, ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which could increase trade tensions and market volatility, may help limit the downside for gold prices. Traders may remain cautious and wait for sustained selling pressure to confirm that the one-month uptrend has ended.

Risk-On Mood and Modest USD Rebound Cap Gold Gains

The USD steadied above its recent lows amid recovering Treasury yields, adding pressure to gold prices. In addition, easing geopolitical tensions and a lack of concrete details regarding Trump’s tariff policies have maintained a risk-on sentiment, further undermining gold’s appeal.

While Trump’s proposed tariff policies are considered inflationary, which could prompt the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, markets are still pricing in at least two Fed rate cuts this year. This outlook may limit the upside for US bond yields and the USD, potentially supporting gold in the near term.

Investors are eyeing Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum for more clarity on tariffs, alongside the release of US Weekly Jobless Claims, which could influence XAU/USD prices. Upcoming central bank rate decisions, including the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday and next week’s announcements from the Fed and the European Central Bank, could inject volatility into the market and impact gold prices.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Key Support Levels:

  • Immediate support is seen near the $2,725–$2,720 zone, a former resistance-turned-support level.
  • Further declines could target the $2,700 mark, with a decisive break paving the way for a move toward the $2,665–$2,662 region.
  • The $2,627–$2,622 confluence, which includes the 100-day EMA and a short-term ascending trendline, will act as a critical pivot point for short-term traders.

Key Resistance Levels:

  • The recent high near $2,763–$2,764 offers the first resistance level.
  • A break above this zone could see gold prices challenge the all-time high around $2,790, reached in October.
  • The $2,800 mark is the next significant resistance, and a break above it would signal a continuation of the well-established uptrend over the past month.

Outlook:

Gold prices remain influenced by risk sentiment, central bank policy expectations, and USD movements. While near-term bearish factors may limit gains, uncertainty around US tariff policies and inflation trends could provide support, making any dips near key technical levels potential opportunities for dip-buying. Traders will remain focused on upcoming economic data and central bank decisions for further direction.

Gold Prices Slip as Recession Fears Diminish, Set for Weekly Losses

Gold Prices Slip as Recession Fears Diminish, Set for Weekly Losses

Gold prices dipped in Asian trading on Friday, weighed down by positive U.S. labor data that boosted risk appetite and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. This decline put the yellow metal on track for weekly losses.

In the industrial metals sector, copper prices also benefited from the improved risk sentiment, with positive inflation data from China, the world’s largest importer, helping to lift the mood. However, copper remained on course for steep weekly losses.

Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,419.23 per ounce, while December gold futures dropped 0.2% to $2,459.10 per ounce as of 01:40 ET (05:40 GMT).

Gold Eyes Mild Weekly Losses, Remains Near Record Highs

Spot gold prices were down nearly 1% this week, retreating from near-record highs reached last week as recession fears had driven up safe-haven demand.

However, those fears receded throughout the week, particularly after strong U.S. labor market data suggested that a severe economic slowdown might not be imminent.

Weekly jobless claims data released on Thursday exceeded expectations, leading to a sharp rebound in risk-driven markets, particularly stocks, and reducing the appeal of gold as a safe haven.

Despite the dip, gold’s losses were somewhat limited as investors continued to bet on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

This expectation also lent some support to other precious metals, although they too saw declines on Friday and were headed for weekly losses. Platinum futures slipped 0.1% to $941.20 per ounce, while silver futures declined 0.3% to $27.535 per ounce.

Copper Prices Edge Up on Positive China Inflation, But Weekly Losses Loom

Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.8% to $8,896.50 per ton, while one-month copper futures increased by the same margin to $4.0150 per pound.

Despite these gains, both contracts were down about 2% for the week and hovered near four-month lows.

Some positive data from China, the top importer, provided a boost to copper prices. July’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation exceeded expectations, while producer price index (PPI) inflation contracted less than anticipated. This data fueled optimism that demand for copper might be improving in China.

However, other indicators earlier in the week, particularly import data, showed that China’s copper imports declined for the second consecutive month in July, adding to the metal’s downward pressure.

Topix and Nikkei Hit Record Highs in Japan Stock Rally

Topix and Nikkei Hit Record Highs in Japan Stock Rally

Japan’s Topix stock index surged past its bubble-era peak to reach a record high, signaling a broad-based rally beyond just a few stocks. The benchmark index rose as much as 0.6% to 2,890.52, exceeding the previous intraday record set in December 1989. Most of the 33 industry sub-indexes in the gauge, which covers over 2,000 companies, climbed. Automakers provided the biggest boost, while insurers and banks have been top performers since the index hit a low in mid-April, driven by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates, improving their profitability.

Initial gains were from the exporter and tech-heavy Nikkei index, so it’s not surprising to see the Topix catching up.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average reclaimed its all-time high in February, aided by a global tech rally and a weaker yen boosting exporters. Both indices surged over 25% last year as global funds flowed into the market, attracted by ultra-low borrowing costs, booming profits, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s (TSE) push for better corporate governance.

Investor sentiment remains strong despite the BOJ’s shift towards tighter monetary policy. Banks have advanced on speculation that higher yields will improve lending margins, while insurers are expected to boost profitability through bond investments. However, the BOJ’s decision to delay plans for reducing bond buying until July caused the yen to fall, disappointing investors who wanted more details. The yen’s fresh multi-decade lows have tempered its boost to exporter shares, with fund managers wary of currency intervention. Concerns are mounting that a weak yen may become a liability for Japanese companies and the economy.

Despite these challenges, Japanese stocks remain a favorite in Asia. Bank of America’s June fund manager survey showed that one-third of respondents view corporate governance improvements as the most important theme. Analysts expect the TSE’s plan to revamp the Topix index to pressure companies further to improve governance.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists highlighted that Japanese corporations are keen to show their response to governance reform pressure. Activists are starting to see success, as evidenced by recent shareholder victories at annual general meetings. Shareholders of clothing firm Daidoh Ltd. supported three board candidates proposed by Japanese fund Strategic Capital Inc., and the president of Toyo Securities Co. withdrew his candidacy for reappointment due to lack of shareholder support.

The movement of the Topix index indicates the bottoming out and an all-time high of the Japanese market as a whole, unlike the Nikkei 225, which is biased toward certain stocks.

Asian Shares and US Futures Fall on Tech Losses

Asian Shares and US Futures Fall on Tech Losses

Asian shares fell alongside European and US stock-index futures after Micron Technology Inc.’s sales outlook missed the highest forecasts, impacting major tech companies in late Wall Street trading. Stocks in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and China all declined, pushing the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge toward its first loss in three days.

The yen recovered some losses after dropping to 160.87 per dollar on Wednesday, its weakest level since 1986. An emerging-market currency gauge neared a two-month low, and an Asian currency index fell to levels last seen in 2022 as the dollar strengthened. Treasuries continued to decline amid concerns that Friday’s US PCE data would show persistent inflation.

“It’s all about the Fed—higher rates for longer are keeping short-term rates high, drawing money into the US and strengthening the dollar,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities LLC. For Japan, “it’s a problem,” he added.

MSCI Inc.‘s key gauge for Chinese stocks is headed for a technical correction as traders struggle to find catalysts ahead of a July meeting of the nation’s top leaders. The MSCI China Index fell up to 2% on Thursday, marking a nearly 10% decline since its May 20 high.

The yen strengthened from a 38-year low after Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki remarked that “one-sided moves in the foreign exchange market were not desirable as currencies should reflect fundamentals.” The currency had dropped 0.7% on Wednesday.

Micron Technology shares dropped in extended US trading after the computer memory chip maker disappointed investors hoping for gains from the AI computing boom. This news also pulled down other chipmakers, including Nvidia Corp.

Wall Street’s latest attempt to broaden beyond megacap stocks was short-lived, with various measures showing weak market breadth, increasing uncertainty about the rally’s sustainability. The disparity between S&P 500 performance and breadth is among the worst in three decades, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

“The stock market is overly reliant on big tech,” said David Bahnsen at The Bahnsen Group. “Whether the recent tech volatility is the start of something deeper or a future reckoning remains to be seen, but excessive investor sentiment and overdone momentum always end the same way.”

Elsewhere, Asia Pacific companies and governments’ sales of dollar bonds in the primary market hit a nine-month high this week. Issuers aim to lock in historically tight spreads before they rise further. The Korean government and other issuers sold over $5.5 billion of notes on Wednesday, pushing the week’s total close to $14 billion, according to Bloomberg data.

In commodities, gold steadied after a two-day decline, while oil traded in a narrow range ahead of the next round of US economic data.

Asian Stocks Climb Following Wall Street, Nvidia Falls Amid Cooling AI Hype

Asian Stocks Climb Following Wall Street, Nvidia Falls Amid Cooling AI Hype

Asian stocks experienced a rise on Tuesday, even as mixed results were observed on Wall Street, primarily due to a further decline in Nvidia amid cooling enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Despite the fall of this tech giant, the majority of U.S. stocks managed to rally, leading to higher U.S. futures and stable oil prices.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index saw a significant 1% jump to 39,190.97 following the release of data from the Bank of Japan, which indicated a 2.5% increase in the services producer price index for May year-over-year. This marked a slight deceleration from April’s 2.7% rise. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar, which drew considerable attention in the forex markets.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose by 0.5% to 18,109.80, while the Shanghai Composite index experienced a minor setback, dipping 0.3% to 2,953.95. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased by 1.2% to 7,829.70, and South Korea’s Kospi added 0.4% to 2,774.54. In other parts of Asia, Taiwan’s Taiex and the SET in Bangkok both enjoyed modest gains.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 dropped slightly by 0.3% to 5,447.87, primarily dragged down by Nvidia’s 6.7% fall, marking its third consecutive day of losses. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fared better, climbing 0.7% to 39,411.21. The Nasdaq composite was pulled down 1.1% to 17,496.82, reflecting the decline in tech stocks.

The energy sector, however, stood out positively, with stocks such as Exxon Mobil and SLB posting gains of 3% and 4%, respectively. Financial stocks also showed strength, with JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo recording increases ahead of upcoming stress test results from the Federal Reserve.

Nvidia’s recent declines have sparked concerns over a potential bubble in the AI sector, as its stock has soared by 1,000% since late 2022, largely driven by the demand for its AI chips. This rapid growth has led to fears of overly high expectations among investors. Moreover, Nvidia’s significant market size means that its stock movements have a pronounced impact on the S&P 500 and other indices.

Other companies that have benefited from the AI boom also saw some retrenchment. For instance, Super Micro Computer’s shares dropped by 8.6%, pulling its year-to-date gains down to below 200%.

In the bond market, Treasury yields slightly decreased, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropping to 4.23% from 4.26%. This decrease is part of a broader trend of falling yields since late April, buoyed by hopes that easing inflation might prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later in the year.

Overall, the market dynamics reflect a mix of optimism and caution, with sector rotations suggesting a healthy adjustment despite the overarching influence of a few large companies on overall market performance.

Chinese Bond Market Heats Up: Firm Considers 50-Year Sale

Amid an unprecedented boom in bond issuance as borrowing costs plummet to record lows, a state-owned Chinese firm is contemplating an unprecedented offering of a 50-year note. This potential issuance would mark the nation’s longest corporate debt tenor if it comes to fruition.

Wuxi Industry Development Group Co., which is owned by the Wuxi city government near Shanghai, has engaged underwriters to gauge investor interest for a possible 1 billion yuan ($138 million) 50-year domestic bond sale. According to insiders, the deal is still in its early stages, and terms, including the tenor, may change.

If this bond with a 50-year maturity is issued and priced, it would set a new record for the longest-tenor corporate note ever in China’s local market, excluding perpetual securities, according to Bloomberg data.

Such an ultra-long tenor is exceptionally rare in corporate markets both in China and globally. However, firms are eager to secure cheap financing as China’s bond yields and credit spreads hit record lows. Investors are pouring funds into fixed-income assets, despite warnings from the central bank about a potential asset bubble.

The duration considered by Wuxi Industry is unusual even in China’s low-rate environment. More issuances with long tenors could follow, especially from local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). Senior Asia credit strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., Ting Meng, noted that extending maturities with long-tenor loans and bonds could be a strategy to address LGFVs’ high debt problems. However, she warned that issuers’ credit and duration could pose risks if interest rates rise in the future.

Previously, only a few state-owned firms in China have issued 30-year corporate notes, which, until now, represent the longest tenor excluding perpetuals. Earlier this month, Wuxi Industry priced a 1 billion yuan, 30-year local bond at 3.23%.

The yield premium for 30-year AAA-rated corporate bonds over comparable sovereign debt has narrowed to a record low of 20 basis points this week, based on China Bond indexes compiled by Bloomberg.

Wuxi Industry, whose operations span semiconductors, trade, and investment, declined to comment on the matter. The company reported a profit of 1.9 billion yuan last year, according to its website. 

As China’s bond market continues to heat up, the potential issuance of a 50-year bond by Wuxi Industry Development Group could set a significant precedent, highlighting the trend of leveraging low borrowing costs to secure long-term financing. This move not only reflects the strategic financial maneuvers of Chinese firms but also signals a broader trend that could shape the future of corporate debt issuance in China.

Nvidia Overtakes Apple in $71 Billion ETF Reshuffle

Nvidia Overtakes Apple in $71 Billion ETF Reshuffle

One of the most significant technology ETFs, the $71 billion Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), managed by State Street Global Advisors, is expected to undergo a major rebalancing that will significantly increase its exposure to Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) at the expense of Apple Inc. (AAPL). This change, set by the index provider S&P Dow Jones Indices, is likely to generate billions in trading volume due to the adjustments.

Nvidia, which has seen a remarkable 166% increase in its market value year-to-date, has been underrepresented in XLK compared to its standing in the S&P 500 Information Technology Index. Currently, Nvidia holds about 6% of XLK’s assets versus 22% in the broader index, a discrepancy due to diversification rules that cap individual stock ownership.

The upcoming quarterly rebalance at the end of June is anticipated to shift the weightings dramatically, with Apple’s share within the ETF dropping to 4.5% and Nvidia’s increasing to over 20%. This adjustment requires State Street to buy approximately $11 billion in Nvidia shares and sell about $12 billion of Apple shares, a move that reflects the average daily trading volume of Apple over the past three months.

This rebalance aims to better align XLK with current market trends, particularly in the semiconductor sector. The methodology of the ETF ensures it adheres to diversification rules that prevent concentrated investments, which have been in place for over 80 years to protect investors.

Moreover, the rules set by S&P allow for possible exceptions in their application, which could lead to deviations from the planned rebalance. This possibility and the consequential trades are a focus for investors, as shifts in index compositions are a critical strategy in hedge fund trading.

The anticipation around this rebalance is significant due to the potential market volatility it could induce. The exact adjustments in ETF composition often drive strategic trading decisions in anticipation of such changes. The approach to this rebalance and any potential deviations from the set rules will be closely watched by the market, especially considering the implications for upcoming rebalances in September and beyond.

Chinese Stocks Fall Amid Economic Worries

Chinese Stocks Fall Amid Economic Worries

Chinese stocks fell sharply following a long weekend, with negative developments dampening market sentiment. The CSI 300 Index of mainland shares declined by as much as 1.4% after the markets reopened post the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. In Hong Kong, the index of Chinese shares was one of Asia’s largest losers, dropping up to 2%.

The downturn was triggered by several factors including subdued travel spending and renewed concerns over the property sector, which cast doubts on the durability of China’s economic rebound. Additionally, geopolitical risks impacted shares of electric vehicle manufacturers as markets anticipated the European Commission’s decision on provisional duties.

Analysts pointed out that the recent holiday weekend failed to generate strong consumption, a contrast to the robust activity seen during the May golden week. This was coupled with inconsistent property sales, further straining investor confidence. This follows a series of disappointing economic indicators such as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and import figures.

Despite an 8.1% year-on-year rise in domestic tourism spending during the holiday, the overall momentum appeared to weaken compared to other recent holidays. According to Citigroup analysts Brian Gong and Alicia Yap, the average expenditure per traveler remained low, negatively affecting travel-related stocks like Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.

Efforts by authorities to stabilize the property market did not improve investor sentiment. Dexin China Holdings Co., a property developer, was the latest to be wound up, pushing developer stocks into a technical bear market despite a comprehensive support package from the central government announced last week.

The initial stock rally in China is showing signs of faltering, with a key index on the Shanghai stock exchange nearing an important psychological threshold for the first time since late-March on a closing basis.

Market participants are now looking for more decisive measures to support the market, having been underwhelmed by recent interventions. Attention is also turning to the upcoming third plenum in July, a secretive high-level meeting expected to provide clues on possible policy changes and measures to bolster the slowing economy.

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

Japan’s Insurers’ Yen Hedge Falls to Decade Low

Japan’s Insurers’ Yen Hedge Falls to Decade Low

Japanese life insurers have significantly reduced their protection against a strengthening yen to the lowest level in a decade, and they may continue to cut these positions in the coming months.

As of March 31, nine of Japan’s largest life insurers had only 47% of their foreign securities hedged with derivatives to protect against a rising yen, according to earnings reports compiled by Bloomberg. This is the lowest level since September 2011 and a sharp drop from the 63% hedge ratio in March 2020.

This reduction in hedging likely reflects insurers’ expectations that the yen will either weaken further or that any potential strengthening will not substantially erode foreign investment gains in yen terms. Over the past month, the yen has weakened by 1.4% against the dollar, making it the worst performer among the Group-of-10 currencies.

Analysts suggest that the declining trend in currency hedge ratios will continue, as the yield differentials between Japan and other major economies are unlikely to narrow significantly. This perspective diminishes the pressure for yen appreciation.

There are growing concerns that the yen’s weakness is not solely due to yield differentials but also due to significant capital outflows through direct investments. Japan’s economic competitiveness is waning, prompting businesses to invest more overseas.

Interest rate outlooks are also influencing this trend. While central banks in the euro area, Canada, and Switzerland have started to lower key borrowing costs, the Bank of Japan has moved towards normalizing its monetary policy after ending yield curve control and negative interest rates in March. However, a substantial difference in short-term interest rates has kept the cost of currency protection high, making hedged foreign bonds less attractive. For example, ten-year Treasuries yield -1.2% for Japanese investors with currency protection, compared to 4.22% without it.

Most major life insurers are showing little appetite for hedged overseas bonds, opting to either maintain their current holdings or reduce them further. According to their investment plans for the fiscal year ending March 2025, firms like Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co. and Taiju Life Insurance Co. plan to increase their holdings of foreign bonds without currency hedging.

Life insurers may continue to hold onto their unhedged foreign bond positions unless there is a significant appreciation of the yen against the dollar, according to Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo.

Fed Officials Advocate Patience, Hint at Rate Cut Timing

Fed Officials Advocate Patience, Hint at Rate Cut Timing

On Tuesday, several Federal Reserve officials emphasized the need for more concrete evidence of cooling inflation before considering lowering interest rates. They also provided some insights into when such a move might be expected.

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler indicated that a rate cut could be appropriate “sometime later this year” if economic conditions evolve as she anticipates. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem suggested it might take “quarters” for the data to justify a cut, highlighting the cautious approach the Fed is taking.

Both New York’s John Williams and Richmond’s Thomas Barkin refrained from offering a specific timeline for a rate reduction. However, they, along with other officials, stressed the importance of economic data in guiding future policy decisions. The Fed has maintained borrowing costs at a two-decade high for nearly a year and appears in no hurry to lower them. Last week, Fed officials projected only one rate reduction for 2024, down from the three initially expected in March.

Earlier this year, inflation unexpectedly rebounded in the first quarter, surprising Fed officials who had observed a significant cooling in price pressures during the latter half of 2023. Despite recent encouraging price data, policymakers remain cautious. Boston Fed President Susan Collins highlighted the importance of not “overreacting to a month or two of promising news.”

When asked about the possibility of one or two rate cuts this year, Collins suggested that scenarios consistent with both could be imagined, although she noted that her view on the extent of easing needed this year has diminished based on the data.

The Fed’s cautious stance was evident in the quarterly projections released last week, with four officials forecasting no cuts in 2024. Musalem noted that he would need to see a period of favorable inflation, moderated demand, and expanding supply before supporting a rate reduction, suggesting this process could take months or even quarters.

Recent economic reports have painted a mixed picture. While employment growth remains strong, consumer spending has tempered, and inflation has cooled following a surprising acceleration in the first quarter. Data published Tuesday showed that US retail sales barely rose in May, with prior months’ figures revised lower, although payrolls surged by 272,000 in the same month.

Kugler expressed confidence that the current monetary policy stance is sufficiently restrictive to cool the economy and bring inflation back towards the 2% target without causing a sharp economic contraction or significant labor market deterioration. This cautious and data-dependent approach underscores the Fed’s commitment to carefully navigating the path toward potential rate cuts.

Fed’s Harker Advocates for Single Rate Cut in 2024 Based on Economic Forecast

Fed’s Harker Advocates for Single Rate Cut in 2024 Based on Economic Forecast

Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, believes that one interest rate cut this year would be suitable, based on his current economic outlook. He emphasized the need for more consistent signs of declining inflation before considering a rate reduction, despite a recent report showing a drop in consumer prices in May.

Harker advocates a cautious approach to monetary policy, suggesting that several months of favorable data would be required before he would support changing interest rates. His comments came during a Q&A session in Philadelphia, following a period in which the Federal Reserve opted to maintain the benchmark rate at its highest in two decades.

The Fed recently revised its rate outlook for 2024, now anticipating only one cut this year, a decrease from the three projected in March. This adjustment aligns with Harker’s views, as he sees potential economic growth slowing yet staying above the trend, with a slight increase in unemployment rates and a gradual return to the 2% inflation target set by the Fed.

Harker outlined possible scenarios where either two rate cuts or none might be necessary within the year, depending on upcoming economic data. Although he does not have a vote on monetary policy this year, he believes the current policy rate has been effective in combating inflation, despite the process being uneven.

He concluded by asserting the effectiveness of maintaining the current high rate for a while longer to help bring inflation back to the desired target and address potential risks. This stance reflects a policy geared towards cautious and data-driven decision-making in the face of ongoing economic uncertainties.

Japan’s Core Machinery Orders Drop in April, Sparking Capital Spending Worries

Japan’s Core Machinery Orders Drop in April, Sparking Capital Spending Worries

Japan’s core machinery orders experienced a decline in April for the first time in three months, according to data released by the Cabinet Office on Monday. This development raises concerns about the robustness of capital spending, a critical component for a sustainable economic recovery. The decline follows the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) recent decision to begin reducing its extensive bond purchases, with a detailed plan expected to be announced next month on managing its nearly $5 trillion balance sheet.

In April, core machinery orders fell by 2.9% month-on-month, slightly better than the 3.1% decline anticipated by economists in a Reuters poll. This drop marks the first decrease in three months for this highly volatile data series, which is often used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the next six to nine months. Despite the decline, the Cabinet Office maintained its assessment that machinery orders are showing signs of picking up.

Japanese companies typically draft substantial spending plans to enhance their factories and equipment but often delay execution due to economic uncertainties. The ongoing weakening of the yen has not significantly boosted domestic capital investment, as Japanese firms prefer to invest directly overseas where demand is stronger. This trend has further complicated the domestic capital spending outlook.

Breaking down the data by sector, core orders from manufacturers plummeted by 11.3% month-on-month in April, a stark contrast to the 19.4% increase observed in March. On the other hand, core orders from non-manufacturers rose by 5.9% in April, recovering from an 11.3% decline in the previous month. This mixed performance across sectors highlights the uneven nature of the recovery in capital spending.

On a year-on-year basis, core machinery orders increased by a modest 0.7% in April. This slight annual gain underscores the challenges faced by the Japanese economy as it navigates through a complex landscape of domestic and international economic factors. The upcoming detailed plan from the BOJ on reducing its bond holdings will be closely watched for its potential impact on capital spending and overall economic recovery.

As Japan continues to grapple with these economic challenges, the latest machinery orders data serves as a reminder of the fragile nature of its capital spending and the need for continued vigilance in economic policy and investment strategies.

US CPI Steady in May Ahead of Fed Decision

US CPI Steady in May Ahead of Fed Decision

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the eagerly awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for May on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This report is highly significant as it could trigger substantial volatility in the US Dollar, with any unexpected figures potentially influencing the market’s expectations regarding a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September.

Expectations for May CPI Data Inflation in the US, as measured by the CPI, is projected to rise at an annual rate of 3.4% in May, maintaining the same pace as observed in April. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to be at 3.5%, slightly down from the 3.6% recorded in April. On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to increase by 0.1% in May, compared to a 0.3% rise in April, while the core CPI is likely to hold steady at 0.3%.

Market Sentiment and Fed’s Stance Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently adopted a more cautious tone on the interest rate outlook, indicating that confidence in inflation returning to lower levels is not as strong as before. This dovish stance aligns with the softening of headline and core CPI inflation seen in April. However, recent US business activity and employment data had reinforced market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September until a robust labor market report shifted sentiment.

The latest Nonfarm Payrolls data showed an increase of 272,000 jobs in May, significantly exceeding the forecasted 185,000 jobs. Additionally, Average Hourly Earnings rose by 4.1% year-over-year, surpassing expectations. This data suggested continued tightness in the labor market and rising wage inflation, which tempered bets on a September rate cut. According to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in September dropped from 55% to 43% after the labor market report, with markets now pricing a roughly even chance of two rate cuts by the end of 2024.

Implications for EUR/USD The reaction of the EUR/USD to the upcoming CPI data could be significant. A monthly core CPI increase of 0.3% or higher could bolster market confidence in the Fed extending its pause on rate hikes, especially after strong labor market data. This scenario would likely strengthen the US Dollar against major currencies. Conversely, a lower-than-expected core inflation figure, around 0.1%, could renew hopes for a continued disinflationary trend and reinforce expectations for a September rate cut, potentially leading to a USD sell-off.

BOJ May Consider Reducing Bond Purchases as Rate Hike Approaches

BOJ May Consider Reducing Bond Purchases as Rate Hike Approaches

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to discuss reducing its bond purchases at a policy meeting concluding on Friday, with expectations also set for preparations to increase interest rates as early as next month.

All but one economist in a Bloomberg survey expect the BOJ to maintain its policy rate between 0 and 0.1% after the two-day meeting. However, a majority foresee a decision to decrease monthly bond purchases from approximately ¥6 trillion ($38.6 billion). Discussions earlier in the month suggested that the BOJ might consider the timing suitable for slowing down bond buying.

Such a move would signify the BOJ’s initial firm steps towards quantitative tightening, having shifted from its extensive stimulus strategy in March. Although the BOJ states it does not aim to control foreign exchange rates, a reduction in bond purchases or a definite move towards more restrictive policy could help alleviate the ongoing depreciation of the yen.

Amid these expectations, upcoming U.S. data is projected to reveal a slowdown in inflation for May. The Federal Reserve is also expected to maintain its current interest rates, with focus on any new signals from Chair Jerome Powell regarding future rate cuts.

The challenges for BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda are mounting, as he seeks to balance bond purchase reductions without causing undue market disruption. In his previous press conference in April, Ueda’s nonchalant remarks on the yen’s strength led to the currency hitting a 34-year low, resulting in significant intervention by the finance ministry.

The BOJ has been closely monitored for its bond buying strategy, especially after a market shake-up on May 13 when it reduced its purchases, followed by a lack of sellers in a subsequent operation—a first since 2013. With bond redemptions expected to reach ¥71.4 trillion this year, a monthly purchase rate below ¥5.95 trillion would imply a decline in the BOJ’s bond holdings, aligning with quantitative tightening.

Economists are split on how the BOJ will approach the reduction of its bond buying, with some predicting a slowdown of ¥1 trillion per month, while others anticipate a more cautious initial reduction. Many expect the BOJ to soon outline a formal plan for decreasing its bond purchases.

With the yen remaining weak, there is growing speculation that the BOJ might raise its policy rate in July, marking its second rate hike in 17 years. Observers are keenly awaiting any indications from Ueda at this week’s meeting, with one-third of surveyed economists predicting a rate hike in July, up from 19% in April. Ueda is expected to strike a careful balance in his statements to avoid triggering a spike in yields alongside the planned bond purchase reduction.

Australian PM’s Support Falls After Weak GDP Growth

Australian PM’s Support Falls After Weak GDP Growth

Support for Australia’s center-left Labor government has slumped following a week of unfavorable economic news and political tensions over immigration, according to a new poll. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s party has hit its lowest point since winning power two years ago.

A Newspoll survey published by The Australian newspaper on Sunday revealed that 50% of Australian voters support the Labor government on a two-party preferred basis, while the other 50% lean toward the center-right Liberal National Coalition. This represents Albanese’s worst polling result since November and marks a significant decline from the strong support his government enjoyed shortly after being elected in May 2022. The prime minister’s net satisfaction rating has also dropped to -7, down from a net rating of 0. 

Meanwhile, opposition leader Peter Dutton has seen a boost in popularity, though he still trails Albanese as the preferred prime minister.Australia is scheduled to hold an election within twelve months, adding urgency to the political landscape. The drop in support for the Albanese government follows a challenging week, highlighted by disappointing economic data. Last week, new figures showed Australia’s economy grew by just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2024, falling short of economists’ expectations. On a year-on-year basis, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.1%, which also missed estimates.

This represented the weakest economic growth outside of the COVID-19 pandemic since the first quarter of 1992, when the country was emerging from a recession. Treasurer Jim Chalmers defended the government’s decision to increase spending in the May budget, describing the growth as “flat.”

Additionally, the Albanese government faced political scrutiny after April’s monthly inflation figures indicated that inflation was more persistent than anticipated. The past week also saw the government defending its immigration policies. The opposition accused Labor of weakening deportation directives at the behest of the New Zealand government. Following intense debate in Parliament, Immigration Minister Andrew Giles issued new directives on Friday, emphasizing community safety.

These combined factors have contributed to the decline in support for the Albanese government, leaving the political climate increasingly contentious as the next election approaches.

China’s Yuan Softens Versus Dollar Amid Growing Yield Gap

China’s Yuan Softens Versus Dollar Amid Growing Yield Gap

The Chinese yuan weakened against the U.S. dollar, influenced by an increasing yield differential and diverging monetary policies from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), posing challenges for the currency. Since December 27, the spread between yields on China’s 10-year government bonds and U.S. equivalents has grown by 24 basis points to 144 basis points. Market adjustments reflect anticipation of the Fed’s less aggressive policy stance and the likelihood of rate cuts by the PBOC.

On the same day, yields on China’s 10-year government bonds dipped to their lowest since April 2020, reflecting the impact of policy differences on the yuan, particularly in offshore markets. The PBOC’s balance sheet actions, including expectations of reduced interest rates and loan enhancements via the pledged supplementary lending program, are seen as efforts to provide relief, particularly to the property sector. This is evident from the PBOC’s 350 billion yuan injection into policy banks in December to bolster the housing market.

Traders have noted unusually high U.S. dollar reserves held by onshore exporters, which are anticipated to be converted into yuan as the Lunar New Year approaches, potentially strengthening the yuan against the dollar towards late January or early February.

The PBOC set the yuan’s daily reference rate at 7.1029 per dollar, slightly weaker than the previous day’s fix of 7.0997. The spot yuan rate opened at 7.1675 per dollar and stood at 7.1684 midday, marking a slight depreciation from the last session’s close. Meanwhile, the global dollar index edged up slightly to 102.457 from 102.422.

The currency markets are also eyeing the upcoming U.S. payroll data, which is expected to provide further insight into the Fed’s future policy decisions and could influence the yuan-dollar exchange rate. The offshore yuan was observed trading at a weaker level compared to the onshore rate, at 7.1783 per dollar.

Australian Dollar Steadies Above Key Mark Before US PMI, FOMC Minutes

Australian Dollar Steadies Above Key Mark Before US PMI, FOMC Minutes

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is navigating choppy waters, managing to hold above the crucial 0.6750 threshold against the US Dollar (USD). The AUD, tied closely to commodity markets, is under pressure from a global growth slowdown at 2024’s end, nudging investors towards the USD. Despite this, speculation over imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts has been tempered, with unexpected upbeat manufacturing data from China offering some support to the AUD.

Amidst this backdrop, Australia’s own economic indicators are closely watched, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) emphasizing the importance of data review in rate-setting deliberations. A recent dip in the Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI suggests an easing in economic activity, and upcoming Composite and Services PMI figures are expected to reflect similar trends, potentially signaling sectoral shrinkage.

Despite these challenges, the AUD’s footing might remain firm, underpinned by persistent domestic inflation and a buoyant housing market. Expectations are tilting towards the RBA holding back on policy tightening at its February session, which could lend support to the currency.

Revelations from RBA’s internal documents suggest that rising interest rates have begun to weigh on Australian households and businesses, evidenced by a downturn in domestic tourism and a consumer shift towards more budget-friendly goods to mitigate living costs. Yet, a silver lining appears in the form of stable private sector wage growth, hovering around 4%, offering a glimpse into the country’s economic condition.

In a move to ease the cost-of-living strain without stoking inflation, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has tasked the Treasury and Finance departments to seek viable relief strategies for families.

Geopolitical undercurrents also play a role, with China’s framing of the January 13 elections in Taiwan as a pivotal decision with far-reaching implications, adding to regional tensions that could influence the AUD/USD dynamic.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s trajectory is upward, bolstered by higher Treasury yields, despite a S&P Global Manufacturing PMI that fell short of forecasts. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming US data, including the December ISM Manufacturing PMI and the FOMC Minutes.

These minutes, released in the wake of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hints at possible rate reductions, are anticipated to provide further insight into the Fed’s monetary stance, potentially impacting the AUD and broader currency markets.

 

Iran and Russia to Conduct Trade Using Own Currencies, Bypassing US Dollar – Reports by State Media

Iran and Russia to Conduct Trade Using Own Currencies, Bypassing US Dollar – Reports by State Media

Iran and Russia have reached a significant milestone in their economic partnership by agreeing to conduct trade transactions using their respective local currencies, thereby sidelining the US dollar. This strategic move, confirmed by Iranian state media, was solidified during discussions held by the central bank chiefs of both nations in Russia.

The shift to local currencies comes as both countries face stringent US sanctions, prompting them to seek alternative financial mechanisms for their trading operations. By establishing a system that operates outside of the conventional SWIFT interbank network, they have created a pathway to facilitate trade without reliance on the US dollar.

The timing of this agreement aligns with the strengthening of ties within the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which recently incorporated Iran into its fold through a comprehensive free trade agreement signed on December 25. This inclusion into the EEU is a strategic gain for Iran, broadening its economic horizons and reinforcing its trade potential within the region.

For Russia, Iran’s partnership has grown increasingly vital following the imposition of Western sanctions due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. These sanctions have heavily restricted Russia’s access to traditional foreign trade markets, particularly in Europe, propelling it to seek and develop alternative trade routes and partners.

The deepening of Iran-Russia relations is not confined to economic aspects alone but extends into military cooperation. In November, Iran announced the finalization of deals with Russia that would enhance its military capabilities, including the acquisition of advanced Su-35 fighter jets, Mi-28 attack helicopters, and training for pilots on the Yak-130 aircraft. This move signifies a mutual interest in not only bolstering their economies but also in strengthening strategic and defense collaborations in the face of geopolitical pressures.

This realignment of trade and military alliances by Iran and Russia represents a significant pivot away from Western-dominated financial systems and defense dependencies. By forging their own paths and utilizing local currencies for trade, both countries are sending a clear signal of their intent to operate independently of the influence exerted by the US dollar and to resist the limitations imposed by sanctions.

 

Japanese Yen Reaches New Daily High Versus USD, BoJ Stance May Limit Rise

Japanese Yen Reaches New Daily High Versus USD, BoJ Stance May Limit Rise

On Wednesday, the Japanese Yen (JPY) exhibited a notable upswing, securing a new daily zenith against the US Dollar (USD), in a modest comeback from its substantial depreciation observed in the preceding three days. During the early European trading hours, the USD/JPY currency pair was seen dipping to a daily low, hovering around the 143.30 mark. Despite this upward movement, the sentiment among Yen bulls remains cautious. This tentativeness stems from the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent reaffirmation of its commitment to maintain expansive monetary policy settings. In its latest policy meeting on Tuesday, the BoJ held firm on its existing stance, maintaining its accommodative policy guidance and thereby moderating some investor anticipation of a potential pivot towards less negative interest rates.

This week also brought to light a decline in Japan’s trade activity, with imports and exports falling more significantly than anticipated in November. The decrease in trade volumes, coupled with a generally optimistic atmosphere in global equity markets, has somewhat diminished the Yen’s allure as a safe-haven asset. Conversely, the US Dollar found some support, buoyed by the market’s speculation about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate trajectory. The uncertainty surrounding when and how the Fed might commence scaling back its interest rates has provided some backing to the USD/JPY pair.

Traders, for now, seem to be holding back from making bold directional moves with the Yen, opting for a more measured approach as they await an important inflation update from the United States. The upcoming release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is highly anticipated this Friday. The outcomes of this report are expected to significantly influence the Fed’s future policy decisions, which, in turn, will have implications for USD demand and potentially inject new momentum into the USD/JPY exchange dynamics.

In the interim, several economic indicators and events are poised to sway short-term trading strategies. These include the release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index and data on Existing Home Sales. Moreover, market participants are likely to pay close attention to Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s remarks, seeking insights that could offer trading cues during the North American market session on Wednesday.

The confluence of these domestic and international economic developments will continue to shape the narrative around the USD/JPY pair, as investors and traders calibrate their positions in response to evolving monetary policy expectations and the broader economic outlook.

China’s Central Bank Restarts 14-Day Reverse Repos to Ease Year-End Liquidity

China’s Central Bank Restarts 14-Day Reverse Repos to Ease Year-End Liquidity

After a three-month hiatus, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has recommenced its practice of injecting short-term cash into the financial system via 14-day reverse repurchase agreements (reverse repos). This move, enacted on Monday, is part of a broader strategy to manage the surging liquidity requirements typically seen as the year draws to a close.

Reverse repos are financial instruments used by central banks to control the money supply. By selling securities with the agreement to repurchase them at a later date, central banks can temporarily decrease the amount of money circulating in the economy. The PBOC’s latest round of injections funneled a substantial 244 billion yuan (equivalent to approximately $34.28 billion) into the market through these operations. This capital injection was divided into two segments: a majority of 184 billion yuan was allocated to the seven-day tenor—standard short-term loans—and the remaining 60 billion yuan was directed towards the 14-day tenor.

This recent allocation marks the first instance since late September that the 14-day reverse repo contracts have been employed by the PBOC. These longer tenor agreements are indicative of the central bank’s intent to provide a more sustained source of funds, ensuring that financial institutions have adequate cash for a longer period.

The PBOC’s actions reflect its commitment to maintaining a stable financial environment, a necessity for economic growth and stability. The bank’s official statement on Monday underscored this objective, indicating that the operation was specifically designed to preserve “reasonably ample” liquidity conditions as the year-end approaches. Maintaining such liquidity is crucial for the smooth operation of financial markets, as it enables banks to fulfill withdrawal requests, grant loans, and support economic activity without undue stress.

In broader economic terms, these measures are closely watched by market participants as they often signal the central bank’s monetary policy stance and outlook on the economy. The PBOC’s decision to resume 14-day reverse repos could thus be interpreted as a proactive step to pre-empt potential cash shortages, stabilize money market rates, and guide market expectations during periods of seasonal cash demand.

UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Near Two-Year Peak

UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Near Two-Year Peak

In the closing month of the year, the UK’s consumer confidence has shown a slight uptick, indicating a modest shift in public sentiment despite ongoing economic challenges. In December, analysis from market research firm GfK Ltd. identified a rise in consumer sentiment, marking the highest point since the beginning of the year, although the mood among UK households remains cautious.

The GfK’s sentiment indicator, which increased by two points to minus 22, suggests that while consumers are still grappling with uncertainty, there is a nascent optimism brewing about the economy’s direction as we head into 2024. This increment is the most significant since January of the previous year, signaling that consumers are starting to see a silver lining despite the overarching pessimism reflected in the negative reading. 

This budding optimism encompasses several aspects of the GfK’s survey, which captures feelings towards personal finances, general economic conditions, major purchase intentions, and saving behavior. The data suggests that even amid the current cost-of-living crisis, which continues to exert pressure on the majority of households, there’s a gradual but steady shift toward a more positive outlook on personal financial prospects for the forthcoming year.

Further affirming this shift in consumer confidence is data from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC), which points to a sustained high number of job vacancies within the UK economy. The REC’s metrics showed a 7.7% increase in job postings, totaling 1.44 million in the week starting November 27. This figure is slightly lower by 8.6% compared to the same period in the previous year, yet it underscores a resilient job market. 

The week in question saw the advertisement of 186,329 new job positions, only a 2.6% drop year-on-year, with certain sectors such as physiotherapy, midwifery, and occupational therapy witnessing notable surges in job adverts. Interestingly, no region in the UK experienced a reduction in job advertisements from the preceding week, which suggests a broad-based demand for labor across the country.

The resilience of the job market can be attributed to the ongoing labor shortages and the skills gap that the UK is experiencing. According to REC’s Chief Executive Neil Carberry, the slower economy has not led to a significant reduction in hiring as might be expected in a typical economic downturn. Instead, sectors such as hospitality, engineering, healthcare, and social care continue to face hiring challenges, further complicated by the scarcity of labor and specific skill sets.

This situation presents both an obstacle and an opportunity. The difficulty in filling roles across various sectors could potentially lead to wage growth as employers strive to attract scarce talent. This, in turn, could influence consumer spending and sentiment positively. As the UK navigates the uncertain terrain of post-pandemic recovery, the interplay between job market dynamics and consumer confidence will be critical to watch, with implications for economic policy and business strategies in the coming year.

Japan Approves Tax Reductions to Aid Families, Combat Deflation

Japan Approves Tax Reductions to Aid Families, Combat Deflation

In Japan, the government’s tax reform committee, part of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, has reached a consensus on reducing income tax rates. This move is designed to alleviate the financial strain on households amidst the rising costs of living, signaling a shift from the longstanding deflationary period that has characterized the Japanese economy.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, confronting dwindling public approval due to inflation, stagnant wages, and political fundraising controversies, has chosen to emphasize these tax cuts as a cornerstone of his administration’s growth-centric policies.

In a strategic pivot, the tax reform committee has set an upper limit on the annual income eligible for these tax reductions, targeting relief efforts towards middle and lower-income brackets and addressing the widening economic disparity.

The proposal includes deferring an increase in taxes originally intended to augment defense spending in the subsequent fiscal year. This delay reflects the government’s prioritization of economic support for citizens over military expenditure amid current fiscal considerations.

Further, the committee has decided not to proceed with a planned reduction in the cap on mortgage borrowing for the upcoming year, providing continued access to housing loans for families.

In an effort to stimulate economic expansion through private consumption, the government is also extending tax incentives to businesses that increase employee wages. This policy is extended to small businesses in deficit, allowing them to benefit from preferential tax treatment for a duration of five years.

The tax panel is introducing a novel tax scheme to encourage domestic investment, particularly in companies that produce essential materials for decarbonization and economic security. This initiative will offer tax incentives for ten years, aiming to boost sectors such as electric vehicles and advanced technology components, which are crucial for Japan’s strategic economic initiatives.

These tax incentives are part of a broader government strategy to foster a conducive environment for substantial investments in key industries, particularly those aligned with Japan’s green transformation goals.

The details of these tax reforms are to be incorporated into the fiscal 2024 tax reform framework, which was finalized on Thursday. This framework is anticipated to lay the groundwork for a resilient and forward-looking Japanese economy.

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

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