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EUR-USD

EUR/USD Drops Near 1.0600 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Grow

EUR/USD Drops Near 1.0600 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Grow

EUR/USD has dropped to near 1.0610, marking its sixth consecutive session of decline, amid trading in the Asian markets on Tuesday. The strong US Dollar, buoyed by rising US Treasury yields and solid retail sales data, is applying pressure on the Euro.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to approximately 106.20. Current yields for 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds are 4.92% and 4.60%, respectively. These increases are partly due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have driven investors towards the safety of the US Dollar.

March’s US Retail Sales showed a 0.7% rise, surpassing the anticipated 0.3% and revising February’s figures from 0.6% to 0.9%. The Retail Sales Control Group also reported a significant increase of 1.1%, which was a jump from the prior 0.3%.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly commented on the economic outlook, noting that while inflation has somewhat subsided, the journey to stable prices is not over. Daly stressed the necessity for inflation to consistently approach the target before any policy adjustments are made. She also pointed out the robust growth of the economy and the strong labor market, even though inflation rates remain above desired levels.

Conversely, the Euro’s value is weakening due to cautious statements from European Central Bank (ECB) officials. ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus hinted at a more than 50% chance of over three interest rate cuts this year. Additionally, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane indicated that domestic inflation has not improved as much as other inflation metrics. Despite this, Lane remains optimistic about reaching the inflation target by 2025.

These various economic indicators and policy statements from key central bank figures are shaping investor expectations and market dynamics, influencing the EUR/USD currency pair’s movements.

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NZD/USD

NZD/USD Holds Near 0.5950 as Business NZ PSI Enters Contraction

NZD/USD Holds Near 0.5950 as Business NZ PSI Enters Contraction

The NZD/USD has made a slight recovery from its five-month trough of 0.5927, observed on Monday, stabilizing around 0.5950 in the Asian trading session. This modest rebound occurs amidst a backdrop of economic concerns as New Zealand’s services sector reenters contraction territory. The Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for March distressingly fell to 47.5 from a previous 52.6, signaling a downturn in the sector.

Doug Steel, a Senior Economist at Bank of New Zealand (BNZ), commented on the implications of the latest PSI data. He noted that combining this weak service sector performance with the poor results from last week’s Manufacturing PMI points to a potential sharp contraction in GDP. Steel suggested that GDP could shrink by over 2% from last year, a forecast much gloomier than most analysts’ expectations.

Looking ahead, investors and market analysts are gearing up for a critical week of economic releases. Significant attention is centered on China, New Zealand’s principal trading partner, which will disclose several key economic figures on Tuesday. These include the Q1 GDP growth rate along with March’s Industrial Output and Retail Sales data. The anticipation around these releases is high as they could indicate shifts in regional economic dynamics.

Furthermore, domestic focus will soon turn to New Zealand’s own economic health with the upcoming release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. This inflation metric is crucial for gauging the country’s economic trajectory and potential monetary policy adjustments.

In the United States, the economic landscape appears robust by comparison. Recent data revealed a higher-than-expected rise in the Core Producer Price Index (PPI), with a year-over-year increase of 2.4% in March, surpassing the forecasted 2.3%. This indicates persistent inflationary pressures, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary easing strategies.

Market watchers are also poised for the release of the US Retail Sales figures next Monday, which will provide further insights into consumer confidence and spending trends. Additionally, the financial community will closely follow a panel discussion featuring Lorie K. Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, at the upcoming BoJ-IMF conference.

These upcoming events underscore a week filled with pivotal economic data that could influence global financial markets and inform future monetary policy decisions in both New Zealand and abroad.

 

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USD-CHF

USD/CHF Rises Above 0.9100 Before US PPI Data

USD/CHF Rises Above 0.9100 Before US PPI Data

In the early European session on Thursday, the USD/CHF currency pair exhibited a bullish momentum, climbing to 0.9125, marking its highest level since October 2023. This upward trend in the pair is primarily attributed to the unexpectedly high U.S. inflation figures for March, which have led investors to revise their predictions regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, now leaning away from a reduction this year. This shift in investor sentiment has fortified the U.S. Dollar (USD), lending it considerable support.

The shift in expectations came after the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which indicated a significant and unanticipated increase. This surge in inflation resulted in analysts pushing back their forecasts for the first rate cut, now expected in September instead of the previously anticipated June. Breaking down the numbers, the headline CPI witnessed a 0.4% month-over-month increase in March, while the annual CPI saw a 3.5% year-over-year jump. Even more telling was the Core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy sectors; it rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and exhibited a substantial 3.8% increase from the previous year.

The minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting further underscored concerns about persistently high inflation. Federal Reserve officials expressed unease regarding inflation levels, which continued to exceed the Fed’s 2% target. This discomfort, coupled with the recent data, did little to boost confidence that inflation was on a trajectory towards this target. Consequently, the persistence of higher U.S. interest rates has been a significant factor propelling the USD upwards, which in turn has positively impacted the USD/CHF pair.

Concurrently, the geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Middle East, introduces a layer of uncertainty that could influence currency markets. The ongoing tensions and the precarious nature of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas add to this uncertainty. The recent statements by Israel’s Foreign Minister, Israel Kat, were a stark reminder of the volatile situation. He cautioned that Israel would respond firmly if Iran initiated an attack from its territory. This statement followed remarks by Iran’s supreme leader, who called for retribution against Israel for a perceived attack on an Iranian consulate in Syria the previous week.

Such geopolitical tensions typically result in an increased demand for safe-haven assets, with the Swiss Franc (CHF) often being a beneficiary of such shifts in investor preference. Therefore, while the USD gains strength from domestic economic factors, the CHF could see a boost from these international developments, making the USD/CHF pair one to watch closely in the current global context.

 

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RBA Holding Rates Steady

AUD/JPY Nears 99.90 Amid Expectations of RBA Holding Rates Steady

AUD/JPY Nears 99.90 Amid Expectations of RBA Holding Rates Steady

The Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY) exchange rate has shown a significant uptrend, reaching nearly 99.90 during Monday’s European trading session. This bullish trend in the currency pair is largely driven by the robust performance of the Australian Dollar, buoyed by positive developments in Australia’s domestic financial markets. A key contributor to this strength is the notable rise in the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX 200 Index), especially with a marked surge in the technology sector at the week’s onset.

Complementing the Australian Dollar’s rise is the uptick in Australia’s 10-year government bond yield, which has soared to approximately 4.1%, marking a new high in over a month. This increase mirrors the rally in U.S. bond yields, triggered by unexpectedly strong U.S. job data. Consequently, there’s growing speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may opt for a prolonged period of higher interest rates.

Investor sentiment is tilting away from the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) implementing rate cuts anytime in 2024. This shift is underpinned by the recent positive economic indicators from the U.S., which hint at sustained higher borrowing costs in the world’s largest economy. Such expectations are lending support to the Australian Dollar, further propelling the AUD/JPY pair upward.

Despite these gains, the Australian Dollar faced some pressure last week due to stagnant Final Retail Sales and less-than-optimistic Trade Balance data. Market watchers remain vigilant regarding the trajectory of copper and oil prices, as any significant appreciation in these commodities could bolster the Australian Dollar further, positively influencing the AUD/JPY pair.

On the other side of the pairing, the Japanese Yen is experiencing downward pressure, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) showing reticence towards any major policy tightening moves. Furthermore, easing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are reducing the traditional safe-haven appeal of the Yen. Notably, Israel’s recent decision to pull back additional troops from Southern Gaza, potentially in response to international pressures, has contributed to this de-escalation.

Adding to the mix, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent remarks indicate a possible shift in the BoJ’s policy approach. Speaking about his tenure, which began about a year ago, Governor Ueda expressed an interest in simplifying and clarifying the central bank’s policy framework, contingent on favorable economic conditions. This potential policy shift, coupled with the global economic landscape, plays a pivotal role in shaping the dynamics of the AUD/JPY currency pair.

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EUR/USD Declines Toward

EUR/USD Declines Toward 1.0830 Amid Market Caution, Attention on US NFP Data

EUR/USD Declines Toward 1.0830 Amid Market Caution, Attention on US NFP Data

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) continues its downward trajectory that began on Thursday, approaching a value near 1.0830 during the Asian trading session on Friday. This movement reflects an increase in market caution, significantly influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have bolstered the US Dollar (USD).

The current geopolitical climate has become more strained following Iran’s vow to retaliate against Israel’s recent attack on its embassy in Syria, an incident that resulted in the deaths of Iranian military personnel. Additionally, new reports suggesting heightened threats against Israeli embassies in the United States by Iran have further intensified market apprehensions.

On the economic front, the USD experienced some downward pressure due to less-than-robust employment data from the United States. Despite this, remarks from several Federal Reserve officials that were perceived as neutral seem to have curbed a steeper decline in the USD’s value.

In terms of specific data, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 29 increased to 221,000 from the previous week’s figure of 212,000, though it was still below market expectations of 214,000. US Challenger Job Cuts for March also showed an increase, reaching 90,309, which is above the previous figure of 84,638.On the other side of the Atlantic, the Eurozone’s economic indicators paint a mixed picture. The Eurostat Producer Price Index (PPI) for February showed a decrease of 1.0%, surpassing expectations and marking a more significant decline than in previous months. Furthermore, the year-over-year decline in the PPI also outstripped expectations, though by a smaller margin. 

The Eurozone’s Composite PMI also showed signs of improvement, indicating a slight expansion in economic activity. Interestingly, the latest inflation data from the Eurozone shows a sharper-than-expected decrease in the annual rate for March. This development fuels speculation about potential monetary policy actions by the European Central Bank (ECB), with some market participants anticipating a possible rate cut in June. As traders navigate these multifaceted economic and geopolitical landscapes, they keenly await upcoming data releases. Significant among these are Germany’s Factory Orders and Eurozone Retail Sales. 

From the United States, the market is particularly focused on the upcoming release of Average Hourly Earnings and Nonfarm Payrolls data, which are considered crucial indicators of the country’s economic health.

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USD/CAD Nears

USD/CAD Nears 1.3560, Drops Due to Rising Crude Oil Prices

USD/CAD Nears 1.3560, Drops Due to Rising Crude Oil Prices

The USD/CAD currency pair continues its downward trajectory for the second consecutive day, inching closer to 1.3560 in the Asian trading session on Wednesday. This negative movement is primarily influenced by the robust performance of Crude oil prices, which bolsters the Canadian Dollar (CAD), thereby exerting a downward force on the USD/CAD pair.

Crude oil prices, particularly Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), are hovering around $84.80, marking their highest point since October 2023. This surge in oil prices can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the weakening of the US Dollar and rising concerns over supply disruptions due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Furthermore, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the US Dollar against a basket of major currencies, is facing a downward pressure, contributing to the weakening of the USD/CAD pair. This weakening of the DXY comes in the wake of dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Notably, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed an expectation of potential rate cuts later in the year. Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that three rate cuts in 2024 might be “reasonable,” though such a decision would depend on further convincing economic evidence.

In recent US economic news, data released on Tuesday highlighted some key figures. The US February JOLTS Job Openings report showed an increase to 8.756 million, up from the previous figure of 8.748 million, exceeding market expectations. Additionally, there was a notable rebound in Factory Orders, which rose by 1.4% month-on-month in February, following a 3.8% decline in the previous period.

Investors and market participants are now turning their attention to upcoming economic data releases. For Canada, the focus is on the Import and Export data due on Thursday, and the labor market data scheduled for release on Friday. In the United States, key data points include the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, both set for release on Wednesday. Moreover, the US economic outlook is set to gain further clarity with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum in Stanford.

Overall, the combination of strong Crude oil prices, dovish statements from Fed officials, and upcoming economic data releases are key factors influencing the movement of the USD/CAD pair, with market participants closely monitoring these developments to gauge future trends.

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NZD/USD Nears 0.5980 Amid Fed's Powell Dovish

NZD/USD Nears 0.5980 Amid Fed’s Powell Dovish Remarks, Eyes on US ISM PMI

NZD/USD Nears 0.5980 Amid Fed’s Powell Dovish Remarks, Eyes on US ISM PMI

The NZD/USD currency pair has continued its upward trajectory for the second straight day, making notable gains during Monday’s Asian trading session and approaching the 0.5980 mark. This upward movement comes in the wake of dovish statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday. Powell’s comments, particularly regarding the recent Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data from the United States, have been interpreted as aligning with the Fed’s openness to potential interest rate reductions this year.

Adding to this sentiment, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller has expressed that there’s no urgency to implement rate cuts, given the persistent inflationary pressures. Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly has underlined the Fed’s readiness to adjust rates as necessary based on evolving data, while also highlighting the strength of the US economy and downplaying the likelihood of an imminent downturn.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been facing headwinds, partly due to lower yields on US Treasury bonds. The DXY is currently hovering around 104.50, with yields on the 2-year and 10-year US bonds at 4.60% and 4.19%, respectively. Despite these challenges, Fed officials are still projecting three rate reductions within the year, with market anticipations leaning towards the first cut occurring at the Fed’s June meeting.

On the other side of the pairing, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is experiencing its own pressures, fueled by speculations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might start reducing policy rates early next year. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr has noted the central bank’s progress in reining in inflation to within its target range. Orr has also suggested that the peak in interest rates has likely been reached, paving the way for potential rate cuts.

Further boosting the Kiwi Dollar, recent data from China has shown encouraging signs. The Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March indicated that manufacturing activity in China expanded for the first time in six months. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI reported a figure of 51.1, slightly above expectations and the previous month’s figure of 50.9. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.8 in March from 49.1 previously, while the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.0 from 51.4.

Looking ahead, traders are likely to approach the market with caution as they await the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI from the United States, scheduled for later in the North American session. Additionally, upcoming data releases, such as the Building Permits from Statistics New Zealand this Thursday, will be closely monitored for their potential impact on currency movements.

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WTI Inches Higher to $70.50 Amid US Oil Stock Decline

WTI Inches Higher to $70.50 Amid US Oil Stock Decline

WTI Inches Higher to $70.50 Amid US Oil Stock Decline

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices continue to rise for the second consecutive day, trading around $70.40 per barrel during Friday’s Asian session. The upward momentum in oil prices is primarily driven by an unexpected drop in US crude oil inventories.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude oil stocks fell by 2.192 million barrels for the week ending October 11, defying market expectations of a 2.3 million barrel increase. This contrasts with the previous week’s significant build of 5.81 million barrels, adding bullish sentiment to the oil market.

In addition to the inventory drawdown, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are supporting oil prices. Israel’s military confirmed the death of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, during an operation in southern Gaza. This development has heightened concerns of escalating conflict in the region, which could disrupt global oil supply chains.

However, the potential upside for WTI prices may be capped by several factors. The EIA also reported that US crude oil production hit a record high of 13.5 million barrels per day last week, adding supply-side pressure. Furthermore, Libya’s oil production has resumed, and OPEC+ plans to gradually unwind production cuts by 2025, according to Reuters.

Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report on Tuesday forecasting a significant oil surplus in 2024. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 860,000 barrels per day next year, but this represents a downward revision of 40,000 barrels per day from earlier forecasts. The IEA attributed this adjustment to slower economic growth in China and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, which are starting to reshape oil demand in the world’s largest oil importer.

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Japan Stocks Rise as Nikkei 225 Climbs 2.01% at Close

Japan Stocks Climb as Nikkei 225 Gains 2.01% at Close

Japan Stocks Climb as Nikkei 225 Gains 2.01% at Close

Japanese stocks ended higher on Thursday, led by strong performances in the Mining, Chemical, Petroleum & Plastic, and Real Estate sectors. The Nikkei 225 index surged by 2.01%, marking a strong session.

Top performers of the day included M3 Inc. (TYO:2413), which saw an impressive 9.93% rise, adding 145.00 points to close at 1,605.00. Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co., Ltd. (TYO:4506) followed with an 8.91% gain, closing at 648.00, and Ajinomoto Co., Inc. (TYO:2802) rose 5.58%, finishing at 5,786.00.

On the downside, Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. (TYO:5541) was the worst performer, dropping 1.73% to close at 1,423.00. Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. (TYO:9843) declined by 1.59%, ending at 20,715.00, and Japan Exchange Group Inc. (TYO:8697) fell 1.44% to 1,877.00.

Overall, rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the Tokyo Stock Exchange by 2,540 to 1,052, with 260 shares unchanged.

The Nikkei Volatility Index, which tracks the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, dropped by 12.33% to 24.75, signaling lower market uncertainty.

In commodities, crude oil for November delivery climbed 1.53% to $71.17 per barrel, while Brent oil for December delivery increased by 1.35% to $74.90 per barrel. Gold futures for December delivery also rose 0.21%, reaching $2,675.20 per ounce.

In currency markets, USD/JPY rose 0.18% to 146.72, while EUR/JPY edged up 0.03% to 161.83. The US Dollar Index Futures also gained 0.20%, reaching 101.63.

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Intel Tops Dow Jones on $5 Billion Apollo Investment Speculation

Intel Leads Dow Jones as Top Gainer Amid $5 Billion Apollo Investment Rumors

Intel Leads Dow Jones as Top Gainer Amid $5 Billion Apollo Investment Rumors

Intel (INTC) emerged as the top performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on Monday, outperforming major companies like Visa (V), Walmart (WMT), and Boeing (BA). The semiconductor giant’s shares surged by 3.3% on reports that Apollo Global Management is in discussions to invest $5 billion in the company.

Despite the overall modest market performance— the Dow Jones closed up by 0.15%, comparable to the NASDAQ but trailing the S&P 500—Intel’s stock benefitted from this potential infusion of capital.

Intel Stock News

According to a Bloomberg report from Sunday, Apollo, a leading alternative asset manager, has proposed a $5 billion investment in Intel, which Intel’s management is currently considering. This follows news from last Friday that Qualcomm (QCOM) may be exploring the possibility of acquiring Intel, a move that would mark one of the largest mergers in the semiconductor industry.

Intel, despite its value having fallen by over 50% year-to-date, still boasts a market cap of around $90 billion, while Qualcomm’s valuation is just under $200 billion. A combination of the two companies would create the largest semiconductor firm globally. However, Stifel analyst Ruben Roy quickly downplayed the likelihood of such a deal, citing regulatory hurdles that have derailed similar large-scale acquisitions in the past, such as Nvidia’s (NVDA) failed bid to acquire ARM Holdings and Broadcom’s (AVGO) unsuccessful attempt to buy Qualcomm.

Broadcom had also reportedly considered acquiring Intel but, according to insiders, decided not to move forward with a proposal over the weekend.

Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri expressed skepticism about Qualcomm receiving regulatory approval for the deal, especially given China’s influence in approving major tech mergers: “The speculated QCOM+Intel deal is unlikely to receive China regulatory approval in our view, given the recent M&A experience in the industry,” Pajjuri noted.

Additionally, Intel has been evaluating the sale of its Altera unit, which produces programmable chips. Analysts estimate that the division alone could be worth $22 billion, while other parts of Intel’s business could fetch valuations up to $140 billion in the capital markets.

Intel Stock Forecast

Intel shares have shown some positive movement, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, but the stock has yet to see significant gains. Analysts believe that Intel needs to reclaim the $24.90 support level to attract more bullish interest.

Despite a poor balance sheet, analysts argue that Intel’s parts are worth more than the company as a whole. If acquisition rumors continue to gain momentum, Intel’s stock could rise back toward the $30 range.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits Fed Cues for Next Move

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits Fed Cues for Next Move

Gold price (XAU/USD) continues its sideways consolidation for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, remaining in a narrow range around the $2,500 psychological level as the European session approaches. A generally positive sentiment across global equity markets is acting as a headwind for the safe-haven metal, while a modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its lowest level since January is also capping gains.

Traders seem hesitant to make new bets on Gold’s direction until they receive more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut trajectory. The focus is now on the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Meanwhile, dovish expectations for the Fed, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks, could continue to support XAU/USD and limit any downside.

Market Overview: Gold Price Bulls Await Fed Signals

Gold price is extending its consolidative move near record highs, with traders stepping back to await further signals from the Federal Reserve before positioning for the next significant move. The upcoming FOMC minutes and Powell’s speech are expected to offer hints about the possibility of a larger rate cut in September.

Recent strong US Retail Sales data have tempered fears of a recession, leading market participants to scale back expectations for aggressive policy easing. However, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool still suggests that the Fed may begin its easing cycle in September, with expectations of more than a 200 basis point reduction by the end of 2025.

Key Fed officials, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, have recently commented on the balance of risks and the need for cautious policy adjustments, reflecting ongoing concerns about the US economy.

Geopolitical Updates and Technical Analysis

On the geopolitical front, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated that progress is being made in negotiations to resolve disagreements in the Middle East, which could reduce tensions and boost risk appetite among investors.

From a technical perspective, Gold’s current range-bound movement is likely a bullish consolidation before another leg higher. The constructive outlook is supported by daily chart oscillators that remain in positive territory, though not yet overbought. Bulls are waiting for a breakout above Friday’s all-time high near the $2,509-2,510 area to confirm further gains.

On the downside, immediate support is seen around the $2,472-2,470 resistance-turned-support level. Any decline below this could attract fresh buyers, with key support at $2,448-2,446. A break below this level could lead to a deeper correction, potentially pushing prices towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $2,392.

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Gold Price Awaiting US Macro Data for Potential Gains

Gold Price Awaiting US Macro Data for Potential Gains

Gold Price Awaiting US Macro Data for Potential Gains

Gold prices (XAU/USD) saw a decline on Wednesday as investors adjusted their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy after the release of US consumer inflation data. However, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, expectations of the Fed initiating a rate-cutting cycle soon, and a subdued US Dollar (USD) helped gold regain positive momentum on Thursday.

Despite reduced expectations for a 50 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut in September leading to a modest recovery in US Treasury yields, which could limit aggressive bullish positioning on non-yielding gold, the overall market environment still supports the potential for further gains. Additionally, a generally positive tone in equity markets could pose a challenge to the safe-haven metal. Nonetheless, the fundamental backdrop remains favorable for gold ahead of key US macroeconomic data scheduled for release later on Thursday.

Market Movers: Gold Price Supported by Geopolitical Risk and Weak USD Demand

On Wednesday, data showed that US consumer prices increased as expected in July, dampening hopes for a significant rate cut by the Fed in September. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a moderate 0.2% rise in headline CPI for July, following a 0.1% decline the previous month. The annual CPI increase fell below 3% for the first time in nearly three and a half years, indicating ongoing progress toward the Fed’s inflation targets.

Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also increased by 0.2% in July, easing to 3.2% year-on-year from 3.3% in June. As a result, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now shows a 36% probability of a 50 bps rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, down from 50% before the CPI data. This led to a late recovery in US Treasury yields, which attracted some buying interest in the USD and weighed on gold.

Despite this, ongoing geopolitical tensions provide some support for gold. Mediators are aiming to initiate ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas amid the potential threat of an imminent Iranian attack on Israel.

Traders are now focusing on upcoming US economic reports, including Retail Sales, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and regional manufacturing indices, for short-term trading opportunities.

Technical Outlook: Gold Price Poised for Further Gains Above $2,470 Resistance

Technically, the recent swing low around the $2,438 level is acting as immediate support, followed by the $2,424 area, which was the weekly low on Monday. Continued selling pressure could push gold below the $2,400 mark, targeting the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the $2,380 zone. A decisive break below this level could expose the 100-day SMA near the $2,360 region, potentially triggering further bearish momentum.

However, daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, indicating potential for additional near-term gains. Any further upward movement is likely to encounter resistance around the $2,471-$2,472 region, followed by the $2,483-$2,484 area, which marks the all-time high reached in July. A sustained rise beyond the $2,500 psychological mark would confirm a breakout from the one-month-old trading range and set the stage for further appreciation.

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Asian Shares Rise, Kiwi Slumps as New Zealand

Asian Shares Rise, Kiwi Slumps as New Zealand Cuts Rates

Asian Shares Rise, Kiwi Slumps as New Zealand Cuts Rates

Asian shares climbed on Wednesday following softer-than-expected U.S. producer price data, which bolstered hopes for mild consumer price inflation. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar (kiwi) tumbled after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rates for the first time since early 2020.

European stock futures pointed to a higher opening, with data showing that British inflation in July rose less than anticipated. EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 0.5%, and FTSE futures rose 0.6%. U.S. equity futures remained flat.

In Japan, the announcement that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida would step down as ruling party leader in September added to the busy news flow in Asia. His tenure has been marked by rising prices and political scandals. Following the news, the Japanese yen dipped 0.2%, while the Nikkei index rose 0.6%, recovering from last week’s sharp selloff.

The New Zealand dollar slumped by 1.1% after the RBNZ cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% and signaled further easing. This move was earlier than the bank’s own projections. Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ, commented, “The RBNZ faced a tricky decision today – turning points are always difficult. But the Committee decided they had sufficient confidence in the inflation outlook to start easing monetary conditions.” ANZ has now penciled in a series of 25 basis point cuts, potentially bringing rates down to 3.5%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.4%, with most markets up except China, where both Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and mainland blue chips fell 0.5%.

Wall Street saw a strong rebound after U.S. producer price data indicated a slower rise than expected in July, suggesting continued moderation in inflation. This prompted markets to slightly increase the odds of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, from 50% to 53%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, to a 0.14% rise in July, down from the previous estimate of 0.17%. Investors are now keenly awaiting consumer price data for July, with economists expecting 0.2% increases in both the headline and core figures, and a slight slowdown in the annual core inflation rate to 3.2%.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, noted, “Risk will find buyers if additional implied rate cuts are driven by a reduced inflation dynamic. However, the opposite is true if any additional rate cuts are driven by weaker growth or poor labor market readings – this week’s U.S. retail sales report could therefore be influential on that thesis.”

U.S. bonds experienced solid buying overnight, with two-year yields falling to 3.9392% and ten-year Treasury yields holding at 3.8465% after a 5 basis point drop.

The U.S. dollar was slightly lower due to falling bond yields, edging up 0.1% to 102.70 against major peers after losing 0.5% overnight. The euro strengthened 0.6% overnight, trading near $1.0988, close to a significant resistance level of $1.1.

In commodities, crude oil prices recovered some of the previous day’s losses, with Brent crude futures rising 0.7% to $81.23 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude up 0.7% to $78.93. Gold prices increased by 0.1%, reaching $2,461.72 an ounce.

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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Japan's Insurers' Yen Hedge Falls

Japan’s Insurers’ Yen Hedge Falls to Decade Low

Japan’s Insurers’ Yen Hedge Falls to Decade Low

Japanese life insurers have significantly reduced their protection against a strengthening yen to the lowest level in a decade, and they may continue to cut these positions in the coming months.

As of March 31, nine of Japan’s largest life insurers had only 47% of their foreign securities hedged with derivatives to protect against a rising yen, according to earnings reports compiled by Bloomberg. This is the lowest level since September 2011 and a sharp drop from the 63% hedge ratio in March 2020.

This reduction in hedging likely reflects insurers’ expectations that the yen will either weaken further or that any potential strengthening will not substantially erode foreign investment gains in yen terms. Over the past month, the yen has weakened by 1.4% against the dollar, making it the worst performer among the Group-of-10 currencies.

Analysts suggest that the declining trend in currency hedge ratios will continue, as the yield differentials between Japan and other major economies are unlikely to narrow significantly. This perspective diminishes the pressure for yen appreciation.

There are growing concerns that the yen’s weakness is not solely due to yield differentials but also due to significant capital outflows through direct investments. Japan’s economic competitiveness is waning, prompting businesses to invest more overseas.

Interest rate outlooks are also influencing this trend. While central banks in the euro area, Canada, and Switzerland have started to lower key borrowing costs, the Bank of Japan has moved towards normalizing its monetary policy after ending yield curve control and negative interest rates in March. However, a substantial difference in short-term interest rates has kept the cost of currency protection high, making hedged foreign bonds less attractive. For example, ten-year Treasuries yield -1.2% for Japanese investors with currency protection, compared to 4.22% without it.

Most major life insurers are showing little appetite for hedged overseas bonds, opting to either maintain their current holdings or reduce them further. According to their investment plans for the fiscal year ending March 2025, firms like Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co. and Taiju Life Insurance Co. plan to increase their holdings of foreign bonds without currency hedging.

Life insurers may continue to hold onto their unhedged foreign bond positions unless there is a significant appreciation of the yen against the dollar, according to Shoki Omori, chief desk strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo.

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Fed Officials Advocate Patience, Hint at Rate Cut Timing

Fed Officials Advocate Patience, Hint at Rate Cut Timing

Fed Officials Advocate Patience, Hint at Rate Cut Timing

On Tuesday, several Federal Reserve officials emphasized the need for more concrete evidence of cooling inflation before considering lowering interest rates. They also provided some insights into when such a move might be expected.

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler indicated that a rate cut could be appropriate “sometime later this year” if economic conditions evolve as she anticipates. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem suggested it might take “quarters” for the data to justify a cut, highlighting the cautious approach the Fed is taking.

Both New York’s John Williams and Richmond’s Thomas Barkin refrained from offering a specific timeline for a rate reduction. However, they, along with other officials, stressed the importance of economic data in guiding future policy decisions. The Fed has maintained borrowing costs at a two-decade high for nearly a year and appears in no hurry to lower them. Last week, Fed officials projected only one rate reduction for 2024, down from the three initially expected in March.

Earlier this year, inflation unexpectedly rebounded in the first quarter, surprising Fed officials who had observed a significant cooling in price pressures during the latter half of 2023. Despite recent encouraging price data, policymakers remain cautious. Boston Fed President Susan Collins highlighted the importance of not “overreacting to a month or two of promising news.”

When asked about the possibility of one or two rate cuts this year, Collins suggested that scenarios consistent with both could be imagined, although she noted that her view on the extent of easing needed this year has diminished based on the data.

The Fed’s cautious stance was evident in the quarterly projections released last week, with four officials forecasting no cuts in 2024. Musalem noted that he would need to see a period of favorable inflation, moderated demand, and expanding supply before supporting a rate reduction, suggesting this process could take months or even quarters.

Recent economic reports have painted a mixed picture. While employment growth remains strong, consumer spending has tempered, and inflation has cooled following a surprising acceleration in the first quarter. Data published Tuesday showed that US retail sales barely rose in May, with prior months’ figures revised lower, although payrolls surged by 272,000 in the same month.

Kugler expressed confidence that the current monetary policy stance is sufficiently restrictive to cool the economy and bring inflation back towards the 2% target without causing a sharp economic contraction or significant labor market deterioration. This cautious and data-dependent approach underscores the Fed’s commitment to carefully navigating the path toward potential rate cuts.

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Fed's Harker Advocates for Single

Fed’s Harker Advocates for Single Rate Cut in 2024 Based on Economic Forecast

Fed’s Harker Advocates for Single Rate Cut in 2024 Based on Economic Forecast

Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, believes that one interest rate cut this year would be suitable, based on his current economic outlook. He emphasized the need for more consistent signs of declining inflation before considering a rate reduction, despite a recent report showing a drop in consumer prices in May.

Harker advocates a cautious approach to monetary policy, suggesting that several months of favorable data would be required before he would support changing interest rates. His comments came during a Q&A session in Philadelphia, following a period in which the Federal Reserve opted to maintain the benchmark rate at its highest in two decades.

The Fed recently revised its rate outlook for 2024, now anticipating only one cut this year, a decrease from the three projected in March. This adjustment aligns with Harker’s views, as he sees potential economic growth slowing yet staying above the trend, with a slight increase in unemployment rates and a gradual return to the 2% inflation target set by the Fed.

Harker outlined possible scenarios where either two rate cuts or none might be necessary within the year, depending on upcoming economic data. Although he does not have a vote on monetary policy this year, he believes the current policy rate has been effective in combating inflation, despite the process being uneven.

He concluded by asserting the effectiveness of maintaining the current high rate for a while longer to help bring inflation back to the desired target and address potential risks. This stance reflects a policy geared towards cautious and data-driven decision-making in the face of ongoing economic uncertainties.

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Japan's Core Machinery Orders Drop in April

Japan’s Core Machinery Orders Drop in April, Sparking Capital Spending Worries

Japan’s Core Machinery Orders Drop in April, Sparking Capital Spending Worries

Japan’s core machinery orders experienced a decline in April for the first time in three months, according to data released by the Cabinet Office on Monday. This development raises concerns about the robustness of capital spending, a critical component for a sustainable economic recovery. The decline follows the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) recent decision to begin reducing its extensive bond purchases, with a detailed plan expected to be announced next month on managing its nearly $5 trillion balance sheet.

In April, core machinery orders fell by 2.9% month-on-month, slightly better than the 3.1% decline anticipated by economists in a Reuters poll. This drop marks the first decrease in three months for this highly volatile data series, which is often used as a leading indicator of capital spending in the next six to nine months. Despite the decline, the Cabinet Office maintained its assessment that machinery orders are showing signs of picking up.

Japanese companies typically draft substantial spending plans to enhance their factories and equipment but often delay execution due to economic uncertainties. The ongoing weakening of the yen has not significantly boosted domestic capital investment, as Japanese firms prefer to invest directly overseas where demand is stronger. This trend has further complicated the domestic capital spending outlook.

Breaking down the data by sector, core orders from manufacturers plummeted by 11.3% month-on-month in April, a stark contrast to the 19.4% increase observed in March. On the other hand, core orders from non-manufacturers rose by 5.9% in April, recovering from an 11.3% decline in the previous month. This mixed performance across sectors highlights the uneven nature of the recovery in capital spending.

On a year-on-year basis, core machinery orders increased by a modest 0.7% in April. This slight annual gain underscores the challenges faced by the Japanese economy as it navigates through a complex landscape of domestic and international economic factors. The upcoming detailed plan from the BOJ on reducing its bond holdings will be closely watched for its potential impact on capital spending and overall economic recovery.

As Japan continues to grapple with these economic challenges, the latest machinery orders data serves as a reminder of the fragile nature of its capital spending and the need for continued vigilance in economic policy and investment strategies.

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US CPI Steady in May Ahead of Fed Decision

US CPI Steady in May Ahead of Fed Decision

US CPI Steady in May Ahead of Fed Decision

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the eagerly awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for May on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This report is highly significant as it could trigger substantial volatility in the US Dollar, with any unexpected figures potentially influencing the market’s expectations regarding a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September.

Expectations for May CPI Data Inflation in the US, as measured by the CPI, is projected to rise at an annual rate of 3.4% in May, maintaining the same pace as observed in April. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to be at 3.5%, slightly down from the 3.6% recorded in April. On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to increase by 0.1% in May, compared to a 0.3% rise in April, while the core CPI is likely to hold steady at 0.3%.

Market Sentiment and Fed’s Stance Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently adopted a more cautious tone on the interest rate outlook, indicating that confidence in inflation returning to lower levels is not as strong as before. This dovish stance aligns with the softening of headline and core CPI inflation seen in April. However, recent US business activity and employment data had reinforced market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September until a robust labor market report shifted sentiment.

The latest Nonfarm Payrolls data showed an increase of 272,000 jobs in May, significantly exceeding the forecasted 185,000 jobs. Additionally, Average Hourly Earnings rose by 4.1% year-over-year, surpassing expectations. This data suggested continued tightness in the labor market and rising wage inflation, which tempered bets on a September rate cut. According to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in September dropped from 55% to 43% after the labor market report, with markets now pricing a roughly even chance of two rate cuts by the end of 2024.

Implications for EUR/USD The reaction of the EUR/USD to the upcoming CPI data could be significant. A monthly core CPI increase of 0.3% or higher could bolster market confidence in the Fed extending its pause on rate hikes, especially after strong labor market data. This scenario would likely strengthen the US Dollar against major currencies. Conversely, a lower-than-expected core inflation figure, around 0.1%, could renew hopes for a continued disinflationary trend and reinforce expectations for a September rate cut, potentially leading to a USD sell-off.

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BOJ May Consider Reducing Bond Purchases

BOJ May Consider Reducing Bond Purchases as Rate Hike Approaches

BOJ May Consider Reducing Bond Purchases as Rate Hike Approaches

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to discuss reducing its bond purchases at a policy meeting concluding on Friday, with expectations also set for preparations to increase interest rates as early as next month.

All but one economist in a Bloomberg survey expect the BOJ to maintain its policy rate between 0 and 0.1% after the two-day meeting. However, a majority foresee a decision to decrease monthly bond purchases from approximately ¥6 trillion ($38.6 billion). Discussions earlier in the month suggested that the BOJ might consider the timing suitable for slowing down bond buying.

Such a move would signify the BOJ’s initial firm steps towards quantitative tightening, having shifted from its extensive stimulus strategy in March. Although the BOJ states it does not aim to control foreign exchange rates, a reduction in bond purchases or a definite move towards more restrictive policy could help alleviate the ongoing depreciation of the yen.

Amid these expectations, upcoming U.S. data is projected to reveal a slowdown in inflation for May. The Federal Reserve is also expected to maintain its current interest rates, with focus on any new signals from Chair Jerome Powell regarding future rate cuts.

The challenges for BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda are mounting, as he seeks to balance bond purchase reductions without causing undue market disruption. In his previous press conference in April, Ueda’s nonchalant remarks on the yen’s strength led to the currency hitting a 34-year low, resulting in significant intervention by the finance ministry.

The BOJ has been closely monitored for its bond buying strategy, especially after a market shake-up on May 13 when it reduced its purchases, followed by a lack of sellers in a subsequent operation—a first since 2013. With bond redemptions expected to reach ¥71.4 trillion this year, a monthly purchase rate below ¥5.95 trillion would imply a decline in the BOJ’s bond holdings, aligning with quantitative tightening.

Economists are split on how the BOJ will approach the reduction of its bond buying, with some predicting a slowdown of ¥1 trillion per month, while others anticipate a more cautious initial reduction. Many expect the BOJ to soon outline a formal plan for decreasing its bond purchases.

With the yen remaining weak, there is growing speculation that the BOJ might raise its policy rate in July, marking its second rate hike in 17 years. Observers are keenly awaiting any indications from Ueda at this week’s meeting, with one-third of surveyed economists predicting a rate hike in July, up from 19% in April. Ueda is expected to strike a careful balance in his statements to avoid triggering a spike in yields alongside the planned bond purchase reduction.

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Australian PM's Support Falls After Weak GDP Growth

Australian PM’s Support Falls After Weak GDP Growth

Australian PM’s Support Falls After Weak GDP Growth

Support for Australia’s center-left Labor government has slumped following a week of unfavorable economic news and political tensions over immigration, according to a new poll. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s party has hit its lowest point since winning power two years ago.

A Newspoll survey published by The Australian newspaper on Sunday revealed that 50% of Australian voters support the Labor government on a two-party preferred basis, while the other 50% lean toward the center-right Liberal National Coalition. This represents Albanese’s worst polling result since November and marks a significant decline from the strong support his government enjoyed shortly after being elected in May 2022. The prime minister’s net satisfaction rating has also dropped to -7, down from a net rating of 0. 

Meanwhile, opposition leader Peter Dutton has seen a boost in popularity, though he still trails Albanese as the preferred prime minister.Australia is scheduled to hold an election within twelve months, adding urgency to the political landscape. The drop in support for the Albanese government follows a challenging week, highlighted by disappointing economic data. Last week, new figures showed Australia’s economy grew by just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2024, falling short of economists’ expectations. On a year-on-year basis, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.1%, which also missed estimates.

This represented the weakest economic growth outside of the COVID-19 pandemic since the first quarter of 1992, when the country was emerging from a recession. Treasurer Jim Chalmers defended the government’s decision to increase spending in the May budget, describing the growth as “flat.”

Additionally, the Albanese government faced political scrutiny after April’s monthly inflation figures indicated that inflation was more persistent than anticipated. The past week also saw the government defending its immigration policies. The opposition accused Labor of weakening deportation directives at the behest of the New Zealand government. Following intense debate in Parliament, Immigration Minister Andrew Giles issued new directives on Friday, emphasizing community safety.

These combined factors have contributed to the decline in support for the Albanese government, leaving the political climate increasingly contentious as the next election approaches.

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USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, keeping the USD/JPY pair firm around the 147.00 mark during the Asian session. A stronger US Dollar and persistent concerns over rising trade tensions are weighing heavily on the Yen, as markets brace for the impact of US tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1. 

Former US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese imports, coupled with the threat of retaliatory action, has sparked renewed fears over Japan’s economic resilience. The country’s Q1 GDP contracted, real wages in May dropped at their steepest pace in nearly two years, and political uncertainty is rising ahead of the July 20 House of Councillors election. Recent polls suggest the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may struggle to retain its majority, further dampening investor confidence. 

These developments have led traders to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. The combination of domestic headwinds and external pressure is weakening the JPY, while the US Dollar continues to gain on expectations that rising tariffs will stoke inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. 

The Fed’s June decision to hold interest rates steady, along with a strong US jobs report, has reinforced the belief that rate cuts may be delayed until at least October. The FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, will be closely watched for insights into the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets currently anticipate up to 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end. 

Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds 

Technically, USD/JPY’s break and close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) — for the first time since February — signals potential for further gains. Positive momentum on the daily chart supports a move toward the 147.60–147.65 resistance area, with the 148.00 handle, a key June high, in sight. 

On the downside, immediate support lies near 146.50, with the 100-day SMA just below 146.00 acting as a critical pivot. A decisive break below this level could shift momentum in favor of bears, opening room for deeper losses. 

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NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5700 on weaker US PMI data

During the early Asian session on Thursday, the NZD/USD pair was trading slightly higher at 0.5690. The Greenback falls against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as US economic data disappoints. Investors will keenly monitor developments in the rekindled trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. 

The weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) could weigh on the Greenback and generate a tailwind for the pair. The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3.

On the other hand, New Zealand’s fourth-quarter employment report will put the RBNZ on pace to decrease the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% this month. Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday that the country’s unemployment rate increased to 5.1% in Q4, up from 4.8% the previous quarter. This result was a four-year high and exceeded the 25-year average of 4.8%. Rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may decrease interest rates may further impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

“In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% at the February 19 meeting and the policy rate to through around 3.00% over the next 12 months. Bottom line: NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD,” noted Société Générale’s FX analysts. 

On Tuesday, the finance ministry in China unveiled a package of tariffs on various US products such as crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos in a sharp response to an announcement made by US President Donald Trump imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Further, China served notice to several companies including Google for potential sanctions in response to Trump’s tariffs. Any sign of uncertainty or a rising trade war tension may see the China-proxy Kiwi being dragged lower, as China remains one of the major trading partners to New Zealand.

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JPY Recovers Losses vs. USD, Bullish Outlook Intact

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses Against USD; Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

The Japanese yen (JPY) cut some of its intraday losses against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, bringing the USD/JPY pair back below the mid-155.00s during the early European session. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions showed conversations about the possibility of further hikes in interest rates. Furthermore, Tokyo’s core inflation increased at the quickest annual rate in nearly a year, raising expectations of further policy tightening by the BoJ, which supports the JPY.

Beyond monetary policy, narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economies, including the US, alongside a broader risk-off sentiment, provide additional support to the safe-haven JPY. However, concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s newly announced trade tariffs limit the yen’s upside. Meanwhile, the USD remains broadly strong, allowing the USD/JPY pair to maintain its positive momentum for a second consecutive day, ahead of the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI report.

Yen Gains Traction Amid BoJ Rate Hike Bets and Trade War Fears

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, effective Tuesday.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, and China’s foreign ministry all replied quickly, indicating probable retaliation. The US Dollar continues to climb, approaching a two-year high last hit in January, supporting the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

The Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions, released on Monday, showed that policymakers are thinking about additional rate hikes, though this has failed to appreciably lift the JPY.

Board members of the Bank of Japan stressed the need of continuing to raise interest rates if economic conditions and inflation remain stable.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the government is closely monitoring the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the yen amid concerns over potential economic fallout.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reiterated Japan’s commitment to achieving the BoJ’s 2% inflation target while implementing measures to offset rising living costs.

The US-Japan yield spread remains near a multi-week low, which, coupled with risk aversion, could help stabilize the yen in the near term.

Investors now turn their focus to key US economic data, starting with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Near 156.25; Bears in Control Below This Level

From a technical standpoint, last week’s strong rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally and the subsequent upside move favor bullish traders. However, additional gains beyond 156.00 may encounter resistance near last week’s swing high at 156.25. A sustained break above this level could spark a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards:

  • 156.70-156.75 resistance
  • 157.00 psychological mark
  • 157.60 horizontal barrier
  • Potential extension towards 158.00, with an ultimate target at the 158.85-158.90 multi-month high from January 10

Conversely, on the downside:-

  • 155.00 serves as immediate support
  • Below this, watch for key levels at 154.55-154.50 and 154.00
  • A break below the 153.70 January low could accelerate the decline towards 153.30 and eventually 153.00

While the JPY is exhibiting some resilience, the overall trend remains unpredictable, with market participants intently watching economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

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Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rise, Fed Decision Looms

Australian Dollar Slides Amid Rising Odds of RBA Rate Cuts, Fed Decision in Focus

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak for a third consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD), weighed down by softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, matching the previous quarter but missing the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI eased to 2.4% from 2.8% in Q3, below the market forecast of 2.5%. Despite December’s monthly CPI ticking up to 2.5% YoY, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2%-3% target range. Meanwhile, the RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI slowed to 3.2% YoY, its weakest pace in three years, slightly under the anticipated 3.3%.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed confidence that “the worst of the inflation challenge is behind us” and that a “soft landing” is increasingly likely. The cooling inflation strengthens the case for an RBA rate cut in February. The central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing the need for inflation to “sustainably” return to target before considering a rate reduction.

AUD Pressured by Risk Aversion, Trump’s Tariff Threats

The AUD faces additional headwinds from risk-off sentiment following tariff threats by former US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of key commodities, including computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to boost US manufacturing.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm around 108.00 as traders turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, indicate near-certainty that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for guidance on future policy shifts.

Concerns over the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies add another layer of uncertainty. US Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino noted, “A number of White House proposals appear inflationary, which could keep the Fed in check.” Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed universal tariffs on US imports starting at 2.5%, with Trump reportedly favoring even higher rates.

China’s Economic Slowdown Adds Pressure on AUD

The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to China’s economic struggles. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1, missing expectations, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.2 from 52.2. As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s weak data weighs heavily on the AUD.

Despite China’s recent stimulus measures, including a $7.25 billion investment in index products and long-term stock investments, concerns persist. Industrial profits fell 3.3% YoY in 2024, marking a third consecutive year of contraction, driven by weak demand, deflationary pressures, and a prolonged property sector slump.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Turns Bearish Below 0.6250

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6230 on Wednesday after breaking below the ascending channel on the daily chart, signaling a shift toward a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, reinforcing downside momentum.

A decisive break below key support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel strengthens the bearish outlook, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward 0.6131—its lowest level since April 2020. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6256. A rebound above this level could reintroduce a bullish bias, with the next upside target near 0.6360.

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US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

The US dollar strengthened significantly against all major currencies after President Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary reignited concerns about potential tariffs, raising fears that trade policies may return to the forefront. Risk-sensitive currencies, particularly those tied to China, saw sharp declines, while the euro weakened amid speculation that the European Union could soon face tariff pressures. Simultaneously, the Japanese yen took a hit as traders hedged against potential US inflation spikes and rising Treasury yields.

This market turbulence followed a Financial Times report indicating that Scott Bessent, the newly appointed Treasury Department official, supports a phased approach to implementing universal tariffs on US imports. The initial proposal suggests starting with a 2.5% tariff rate. However, President Trump hinted at a much broader scope, potentially targeting a range of imports from steel to semiconductor chips and suggesting higher tariff rates over time.

The administration’s “moderate” proposal involves a gradual increase in tariffs, reaching 20% over eight months in increments of 2.5% per month. This timeline has triggered speculation about more extreme scenarios and raised questions about the global trade concessions needed to halt these measures. Bessent’s approach, which allows businesses time to adjust, could also spark a rush of imports and exports to avoid higher future costs.

Amid these developments, financial markets are grappling with the potential outcomes. Traders are assessing whether the proposed tariff measures are fully priced in and evaluating the likelihood of de-escalation through negotiation.

On the positive side, any concessions or agreements that delay or reduce tariffs could stabilize markets. However, the risks of escalating tariffs, particularly if negotiations fail, remain a significant concern. Higher tariffs could disrupt global trade and have far-reaching implications for currency valuations.

While we initially favored long positions on the dollar, the unfolding tariff narrative has introduced significant uncertainty. Staying prepared for sudden shifts in policy and market dynamics is now crucial as the situation continues to evolve.

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Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) ended its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the AUD/USD pair trading flat following the release of mixed Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. As a close trade partner, Australia’s economy is heavily influenced by China’s economic performance.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, down from 50.1 in December, missing market expectations. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 from the previous month’s 52.2. These weaker-than-expected figures suggest a slowdown in China’s economic recovery, weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.

Despite fresh stimulus measures from China aimed at revitalizing its equity markets, the AUD struggled to gain momentum. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a second round of long-term stock investment pilot programs valued at 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). However, these measures have done little to alleviate investor concerns about China’s economic challenges.

Risk Aversion Rises Amid Trump’s Trade Tariff Push

Broader market sentiment took a hit as reports emerged that US President Donald Trump’s advisers are pushing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February 1, bypassing negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s willingness to move swiftly on tariffs follows similar actions taken against Colombia, raising fears of escalating trade tensions and dampening demand for riskier assets like the Australian Dollar.

Adding to the negative outlook, China’s Industrial Profits declined by 3.3% year-over-year in 2024 to CNY 7,431.05 billion, marking the third consecutive year of contraction. This downturn highlights ongoing economic headwinds, including weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property sector.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Bullish Setup

The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6290 on Monday, showing signs of upward momentum within an ascending channel on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 50, reflecting mild optimism in the market.

On the upside, the pair could retest the psychological resistance level at 0.6300, with the next target near the channel’s upper boundary around 0.6350.

Support levels are found at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6265, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6254. A stronger support lies near the channel’s lower boundary around 0.6240, which could act as a safety net in case of a downside correction.

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NZD/USD Struggles

NZD/USD Struggles Below 0.5700 Amid Trump’s Tariff Plans and Dovish RBNZ Expectations

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading near 0.5675 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces headwinds due to uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China and the dovish outlook of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicated a continued decline in underlying inflation, strengthening expectations of additional rate cuts by the RBNZ. Swap markets now estimate a nearly 90% chance of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut on February 19, building on the two cuts already implemented in this cycle. The RBNZ is projected to deliver a total of 100 bps in rate cuts through the remainder of 2025.

Meanwhile, the downside for the pair could be capped by recent comments from Trump. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump called for immediate interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” Trump said.

Investors are now closely watching for further details on Trump’s tariff policies, alongside key US economic data releases. The flash US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for January will be a key focus later on Friday, along with the release of US Existing Home Sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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