Skip to main content

XtremeMarkets

Xtreme Markets Ltd

Web Trader
Register
Download App
Login
Affiliates
Xtreme Markets Logo

Market News

Gold Price Pressured Near Daily Low Amid Trump-Driven USD Strength

Gold Price Pressured Near Daily Low Amid Trump-Driven USD Strength

Gold Price Pressured Near Daily Low Amid Trump-Driven USD Strength

Gold (XAU/USD) continues last week’s slide, facing additional selling pressure for a second day on Monday amid a robust US Dollar (USD) outlook. Optimism over US President-elect Donald Trump’s anticipated expansionary policies has bolstered the USD, pushing it near a four-month high reached last week, which in turn dampens demand for gold.

Trump’s proposal for a 10% tariff on all US imports is expected to drive inflation higher and constrain the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ability to adopt aggressive easing measures. Elevated US Treasury bond yields have supported this outlook, prompting investors to move away from non-yielding assets like gold. However, a cautious market sentiment may help contain further losses for the safe-haven metal.

With key events on the horizon, including the latest US inflation data and speeches from prominent FOMC members like Fed Chair Jerome Powell, traders may adopt a wait-and-see approach. This caution could prevent a further extension of gold’s recent sharp pullback from the $2,800 mark, an all-time high set on October 31.

Gold Price Bears in Control as USD Holds Firm

Gold’s sharp weekly decline—the steepest in over five months—has been fueled by the USD rally and rising Treasury yields following Trump’s election victory. Enthusiasm surrounding the so-called “Trump trade” continues to boost the Greenback, exerting downward pressure on gold as equity markets remain upbeat.

Last week, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, hinting at potential further easing. Despite this, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized the need for more evidence of inflation returning to the 2% target before considering further cuts. Expectations that Trump’s protectionist policies may amplify global trade tensions could also offer support to the safe-haven XAU/USD.

With upcoming US inflation, producer price, and retail sales reports, as well as key comments from Fed officials, investors may avoid large positions, awaiting new cues that will shape the USD’s direction and influence gold’s trajectory.

Technical Outlook: Gold Remains Near Multi-Week Low with Key Support Levels

Technically, further declines in gold may find support around $2,660, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) positioned near $2,647-2,746. A break below last week’s low of $2,643 could trigger increased bearish sentiment, potentially accelerating the decline toward the October low of $2,605-2,602.

On the upside, a move above $2,700 could face strong resistance at the $2,718 level, with a further hurdle in the $2,740-2,745 supply zone. Sustained strength beyond this range could signal the end of the corrective phase, potentially driving gold toward $2,758-2,790 and challenging the record high set on October 31.

Read More
Japanese Yen Stabilizes Against USD Amid Mixed Market Signals

Japanese Yen Stabilizes Against USD Amid Mixed Market Signals

Japanese Yen Stabilizes Against USD Amid Mixed Market Signals

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains range-bound against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, fluctuating between slight gains and losses in early European trading. Despite recent verbal intervention from Japanese authorities to support the JPY, skepticism around the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to implement further rate hikes limits the currency’s upward potential.

Optimism around potential growth and inflation from Trump’s economic policies also provides a tailwind for US Treasury yields, overshadowing the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance. This, combined with renewed buying interest in the USD, helps cushion the USD/JPY pair from further declines.

Yen Under Pressure Despite Intervention and Economic Data Weakness

On Friday, Japanese government data revealed a second consecutive month of declines in household spending, with a 1.3% drop in September, following a similar trend in inflation-adjusted wages. These economic headwinds may challenge the BoJ’s ability to pursue additional rate hikes.

Further impacting the Yen, Japanese officials reiterated their commitment to monitoring the foreign exchange market closely. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi emphasized a high level of urgency, while Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura indicated the government’s readiness to counter excessive currency movements. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato expressed concern over the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on Japan’s domestic economy.

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair rebounded above 154.00 following Trump’s election victory, prompting verbal intervention from Japan’s leadership. Quarterly data from the Ministry of Finance (MOF) revealed ¥5.53 trillion spent on currency interventions between June and July.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Maintains Bullish Bias Above Key Support Levels

Technically, the USD/JPY’s recent dip found support near the 152.70–152.65 level, a pivotal area that may now act as a buffer. A break below this could accelerate a correction towards the 152.00 mark, with further downside potentially reaching the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 151.70–151.65. Continued selling pressure would signal that the pair’s strong recent uptrend has stalled, opening the door for deeper declines.

On the upside, resistance is expected around the 153.50 level, followed by a key supply zone near 153.85–153.90. A move back above 154.00 could position the pair to retest Thursday’s multi-month high around 154.70, with momentum potentially extending to the psychological 155.00 level and the 155.20 zone, which aligns with the July 30 swing high.

Read More

Gold Price Sinks to Multi-Week Low as Trump Victory Spurs Sharp USD Rally

Gold Price Sinks to Multi-Week Low as Trump Victory Spurs Sharp USD Rally

Gold (XAU/USD) faces heavy selling pressure in Wednesday’s European session, dropping to the $2,700 level—its lowest in nearly three weeks. Republican candidate Donald Trump is leading the US presidential race, positioning him as the likely 47th president, which has sparked a strong US Dollar (USD) rally and triggered aggressive gold sell-offs.

Additionally, concerns over deficit spending and expectations of less aggressive easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) are pushing US Treasury yields higher, making gold less attractive as a non-yielding asset. The risk-on sentiment, illustrated by a strong rally in US equity futures, further signals a downward bias for the safe-haven XAU/USD.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold Price Hit by Persistent USD Buying

The US Dollar surged to a four-month high as US election exit polls indicate momentum in favor of former President Donald Trump. The current electoral tally stands at 227 for Trump and 189 for Harris, with Trump leading in key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Fox News reports a Republican-controlled Senate, as Trump-endorsed candidate Bernie Moreno is projected to win in Ohio.

With Trump performing strongly, speculation over inflationary tariffs and deficit-spending has driven US Treasury yields higher. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield spiked nearly 15 basis points, reaching 4.44%, its highest since early July. The reduced uncertainty surrounding the US election has intensified risk-on trading, adding pressure on safe-haven gold.

Geopolitical concerns, including Iran’s potential retaliation against Israel for an October 26 attack, have had limited impact on gold’s recent decline.

Technical Outlook: Gold Price Tests Key Support Levels

From a technical perspective, the $2,725-2,720 zone remains critical support; a drop below this could see gold accelerate toward sub-$2,700 levels, marking the lower edge of an ascending channel from late July. A decisive break below could lead to further declines toward the next key support at $2,675, and potentially to the $2,657-2,655 area.

Conversely, resistance has formed around $2,748-2,750. A sustained move above this could push gold toward the ascending channel resistance near $2,780-2,785, with $2,800 acting as a pivotal level. A strong breakout beyond $2,800 could signal a continuation of the previous uptrend.

Read More
Australian Dollar Holds Gains Following Hawkish RBA Comments, Focus Shifts to US Election

Australian Dollar Holds Gains Following Hawkish RBA Comments, Focus Shifts to US Election

Australian Dollar Holds Gains Following Hawkish RBA Comments, Focus Shifts to US Election

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains steady after gains from improved Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% for an eighth consecutive pause in November, and it’s expected to maintain current rates following this policy decision.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted the importance of maintaining restrictive interest rates amid ongoing inflation risks. Although the labor market remains tight, wage growth is showing signs of moderation.

In Australia, Judo Bank’s Services PMI rose to 51.0 in October, exceeding the market consensus of 50.6, while the Composite PMI climbed to 50.2 from 49.8. China’s Caixin Services PMI also improved, rising to 52.0 in October from 50.3 in September, signaling a broader regional economic uplift.

As attention turns to the US presidential election, investors are closely monitoring its outcome. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris made final campaign stops in Pennsylvania on Monday, both expressing confidence in an exceptionally close race. Opinion polls show a virtual tie, with the final results potentially delayed for days. Trump has hinted at contesting any unfavorable result, as he did in 2020.

The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure amid election uncertainties, with a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leading Trump by a narrow margin in Iowa, 47% to 44%. Markets are also awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision on Thursday, with expectations for a modest 25 basis point rate cut, backed by a 99.5% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Australian inflation indicators are mixed, with the TD-MI Inflation Gauge rising by 0.3% month-over-month in October, the highest since July. ANZ Australia Job Advertisements grew by 0.3% in October, a slowdown from September’s revised 2.3% gain. Despite weaker growth, job advertisements have risen for two consecutive months.

In other news, China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australia’s Trade Minister Don Farrell on Sunday to discuss enhancing bilateral trade and ensuring fair treatment for Chinese businesses in Australia.

In US employment data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a modest 12,000 increase in October’s Nonfarm Payrolls, significantly below expectations of 113,000. However, the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%, in line with forecasts.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Holds Below 0.6600 with Bearish Trend Indications

AUD/USD trades near 0.6590 on Tuesday, with technical indicators suggesting the bearish trend may be easing as it tests the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, indicating the bearish sentiment persists.

On the resistance side, AUD/USD faces immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA at 0.6596, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6618. A break above these levels could see the pair aim for the psychological level of 0.6700.

On the downside, support lies near the three-month low of 0.6536, with further support at the key psychological level of 0.6500 if bearish pressure resumes.

Read More
Australian Dollar Steady Amid RBA’s Restrictive Policy Outlook

Australian Dollar remains subdued as US Dollar inches higher ahead of US PCE Price Index

Australian Dollar remains subdued as US Dollar inches higher ahead of US PCE Price Index

The Australian Dollar lingered in that strange, somber limbo it often found itself in, steady yet subdued against the mighty Greenback as Thursday dawned over the global market. Beneath the surface, there was a story in each data point, and the numbers came in trickling like beads of dew.

In Australia, retail sales lifted only by a whisper, 0.1% in September—fragile and disappointing, falling far short of the golden 0.3% expected, and a pale echo of August’s more confident 0.7%. Yet the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish stance lent the Aussie Dollar a quiet backbone, helping it hold its ground even in the face of the looming U.S. PCE Price Index.

Across the Pacific, the U.S. Dollar gathered momentum with an aura of steadfast resilience as markets weighed in on the uncertainty, the shadows of the upcoming U.S. presidential election casting a long reflection over the currency. Yet even the Greenback found headwinds as U.S. growth data came in, slower than last quarter, reminding investors of the delicate line between expectations and reality.

China’s PMI figures trickled in with cautious optimism—the Manufacturing PMI edged above fifty, a shy ascent to 50.1, modestly outperforming the expectation, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI held its stance with a gentle rise to 50.2. The ADP report from the U.S. cast a brighter hue, with job growth well beyond the forecasts—a glimmer of vibrancy in an otherwise cautious economy.

Technical analysts cast a wary eye on the charts; AUD/USD hovered, almost defiantly, near 0.6570. The bearish trend traced its course along a descending channel, while the 14-day RSI lingered just above thirty, hinting at sentiment as overcast as a gray autumn morning. If the pair ventured south, it might test 0.6510, even touching the hallowed psychological 0.6500. And if resistance came calling? The journey might meander up to 0.6580 or the elusive 0.6600, where, in whispers, a breakout toward 0.6608 could still glisten on the horizon like an ephemeral Gatsby green light.

Read More

Japanese Yen Struggles as BoJ Decision Looms; US Data in Focus

Japanese Yen Struggles as BoJ Decision Looms; US Data in Focus

The Japanese Yen (JPY) edged higher against the US Dollar during the Asian session on Wednesday, but gains remain limited as the currency hovers near a three-month low. Concerns that Japanese authorities may intervene to support the Yen lend it some resilience; however, uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) upcoming rate decision keeps JPY appreciation capped.

Market sentiment suggests the recent loss of parliamentary majority by Japan’s ruling coalition may hinder the BoJ’s ability to tighten policy. The Yen’s upward movement is further limited by a global risk-on environment and a resurgence in US Dollar (USD) demand, with traders awaiting the BoJ’s rate decision and critical US economic data releases this week for new market direction.

Market Movers: Yen’s Struggles Persist as Political and Economic Concerns Grow

Japan’s Economy Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, cautioned that a weak Yen could drive up prices via import costs, potentially squeezing household incomes if wages do not keep pace, which would dampen private consumption. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato added that authorities are closely monitoring currency movements, increasing speculation of potential intervention.

Japan’s political uncertainty adds complexity to the BoJ’s policy path, restraining any significant gains for the Yen amid a favorable risk appetite. The USD remains steady after nearing highs seen since July 30, while the USD/JPY pair holds close to recent peaks despite limited downside in anticipation of central bank announcements.

The BoJ will announce its policy decision at the end of its two-day meeting on Thursday, while key US data releases may provide additional cues on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. Recent robust US data, including Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Index jump to 108.7—a nine-month high—reflect optimism in the economy, offsetting weaker job openings in September.

Technical Outlook: Limited Downside for USD/JPY; Bulls Target a Break Beyond 154.00

From a technical standpoint, last week’s breakout above the 150.65 confluence, marking the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-September decline, suggests potential for further gains. However, recent failures to consolidate beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci level raise caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers near the overbought zone, suggesting a period of consolidation or slight pullback may be needed before additional upside.

Support levels emerge at 153.00, with further potential down to 152.40 and 152.00. Conversely, a breakout beyond the 154.00 threshold could push USD/JPY to test the 154.35-154.40 region, with the psychological 155.00 level in view, and potentially the July peak around 155.20.

Read More
Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Month

Japanese Yen Faces Selling Pressure Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty

Japanese Yen Faces Selling Pressure Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty

The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces challenges to start the week as market participants digest the implications of Japan’s general election results. Meanwhile, the only data on the U.S. docket is the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ Texas Manufacturing Business Index for October. Later in the day, the U.S. Treasury will auction 2-year and 5-year notes, events closely watched by investors for potential impact on yields and the USD.

In a surprising election outcome, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in power since 1955, lost its majority for the first time in 15 years, heightening economic and political uncertainty. According to NHK, the ruling LDP and coalition partner Komeito secured only 215 out of 465 lower house seats, short of the 233 needed for a majority. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) gained significantly, winning 148 seats, up from 98.

Following this development, USD/JPY opened the week with a bullish gap, touching a near three-month high around 154.00 before trading slightly lower at 153.50, marking a 0.7% daily gain. Reflecting broader Yen weakness, EUR/JPY is up over 0.6% at 165.50, and GBP/JPY has climbed 0.7% to 198.70.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed last week with a solid gain, rising more than 0.8% and edging higher toward 104.50 in early Monday trading, supported by positive U.S. stock index futures indicating an improved risk sentiment.

In other markets, EUR/USD extended its downtrend on Friday, marking a fourth consecutive week of losses. The pair holds steady near 1.0800 as the European session begins on Monday. GBP/USD remained in a consolidation phase around 1.2950 after losing recovery momentum on Friday.

Meanwhile, gold saw bullish momentum on Friday, climbing back from a dip below $2,720. XAU/USD remains range-bound early Monday, trading below $2,750 as it struggles to establish a clear directional move.

Read More

U.S. stocks fail to change much as the quarter end approaches

U.S. stocks failed to change much as the quarter end approaches

As investors analyzed remarks made by central bankers at a panel in Europe and anticipated more quarterly profit reports, U.S. stocks ended the day with no movement. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 82.32 points, or 0.3%, to 31029.31. The NASDAQ Composite Index dropped 3.65 points, or 0.03 percent, to 11177.89, while the S&P 500 dropped 2.72 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 3818.83.

The market is having a brutal first half after three years in a row of double-digit increases. The S&P 500 has lost roughly 20 percent of its value so far this year, making it likely that this will be its worst first half in fifty years.

Rising interest rates and sluggish growth are two factors that have a negative impact on stock prices. Stocks have also been affected by the swift return of inflation, a faltering Chinese economy, and a conflict in Ukraine that startled the commodity markets. Before the second half of the year begins on Friday, investors need to reorganise, according to State Street managing director Michael Arone. As the Fourth of July and the first half came to an end, he added, “We’re limping.”

Investors should take comfort in the fact that a poor first half does not imply a poor second half. The S&P 500 experienced a first-half decline of 21% and a second-half gain of 27% in 1970, concluding the year approximately level. As a result of a number of data releases showing that increased prices are dampening consumer optimism, stocks started the week on a low note. Investors continued to worry that if central banks tightened policy too quickly to combat inflation, it may trigger a recession.

At the European Central Bank’s annual economic policy conference in Portugal, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the epidemic had disturbed the economy in ways that could continue to generate more inflation or volatility in pricing pressures than previously. Is there a chance that we might go too far? There is unquestionably a risk, Mr. Powell remarked on Wednesday. “Failing to restore pricing stability would be the worse mistake to make, to put it that way,”

Some investors are losing faith in the Fed’s ability to arrange a “soft landing,” in which interest rates increase to combat inflation without causing the economy to enter a recession. “Until we have a strong indication that inflation has peaked, we anticipate markets will at best remain stable. Our belief in a soft landing has diminished even further, and the market is moving in that direction as well, according to Pictet Asset Management multiasset strategist Arun Sai.

After three straight days of advances, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note decreased to 3.091% from 3.206 percent on Tuesday. Prices increase as yields decrease. Investors are anticipating more corporate profit reports as the second quarter draws to a close. Even though FactSet projects a relatively small 5.8 percent increase in S&P 500 company earnings, early misses raise doubts about that estimate.

The market has been rattled by some earnings reports, according to Andrew Slimmon, a portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “I assumed we’d see a rally into month-end,” he said. Bed Bath & Beyond, a retailer, provided an example of the point on Wednesday. After the company reported a larger quarterly loss than Wall Street anticipated and announced the departure of its chief executive, the shares dropped $1.54, or 24 percent, to $4.99.

General Mills’ stock increased $4.46, or 6.3 percent, to $74.72 after the firm reported that higher prices helped boost sales despite the food manufacturer selling fewer products overall. In 2022, consumer staples stocks have excelled. Carnival, a cruise line, dropped $1.46, or 14%, to $8.87, quickening a loss sparked by several price-target reductions made by stock research analysts.

Bitcoin was trading at around $20,000. After creditors filed a lawsuit against the cryptocurrency hedge fund Three Arrows Capital for failing to pay back debts, a court in the British Virgin Islands ordered it to liquidate. Stoxx Europe 600, a continental index, decreased 0.7 percent. Most important benchmarks fell in Asia. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.9 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.4 percent. Nikkei 225 in Japan fell 0.9 percent.

Read More

Stocks drop following poor consumer confidence reading

Stocks drop following poor consumer confidence reading

As investors analyzed new economic data in search of hints regarding the rate of monetary policy tightening, U.S. stocks declined on Tuesday, giving up early gains and sliding for a second straight day. To reach 30946.99, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 491.27 points, or 1.6 percent. Earlier in the session, the blue-chip index rose as much as 1.4 percent. The S&P 500 dropped 78.56 points, or 2%, to finish the day at 3821.55. The NASDAQ Composite Index, which focuses on technology, dropped 343.01 points, or 3%, to 11181.54.

The major indices have been extremely sensitive to news and data in recent sessions as investors evaluate how long the market’s recovery from its lows will last. As a result of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates earlier this month, the S&P 500 entered a bear market or a 20 percent decline from its recent top.

Stocks’ initial momentum was gone. Tuesday, following data from the Conference Board that revealed consumers’ short-term expectations for the American economy had fallen precipitously to their lowest level in a decade. As Americans continue to weigh the effects of high prices and rising rates, consumer confidence dropped for a second month in a row. The unfavorable report comes after a barometer from the University of Michigan issued on Friday indicated that consumer mood had reached its lowest level ever.

The unfavourable report comes after a barometer from the University of Michigan issued on Friday indicated that consumer mood had reached its lowest level ever. In a paradoxical view where bad news was good news, weak economic statistics fuelled a stock market rise last week as investors thought the Fed could delay its monetary-policy tightening. According to Boston Partners’ Mike Mullaney, head of global markets research, Tuesday’s consumer reading is “poor news that’s awful news.”

“The Fed is going to be that much more aggressive in squashing inflation,” he added. “If inflation expectations are rising up to the amount they are right now. Market volatility, as demonstrated by Tuesday’s intraday reversal, might also be linked to a lack of liquidity, according to Jim Besaw of GenTrust. Because there are “not a lot of risk takers right now,” the chief investment officer claimed that he has observed markets move more than anticipated when carrying out trades for customers. The lack of liquidity over the past few months has made a lot of problems worse, he said.

Portfolio rebalancing may have an effect on market movement as the month and the quarter come to an end later this week, Mr. Besaw added With a decline of almost 20% this year, the S&P 500 is on pace for its worst first-half performance since 1970. Eloise Goulder, head of the global market, data, and positioning intelligence teams in equity trading at JPMorgan Chase, said: “The challenge is when we hit a market bottom and when we get that turning point, and it’s not necessarily straight away.” She continued, “We need to see the combination of inflation having peaked, and data having steadied, for me to get bullish about the second half of the year.”

Other information made public on Tuesday morning revealed that the increase in property prices in April somewhat slowed. The average home price in the nation’s main metropolitan areas, as measured by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, increased at a somewhat slower annualised rate in April compared to March. Mortgage rates doubled earlier this month, reaching their highest point in more than 13 years.

In other news, China’s National Health Commission announced that it would relax its rigorous quarantine regulations for visitors from other countries in an effort to strike a compromise between its zero-Covid policy and the strains on its second-largest economy. Following the consumer confidence report, consumer-discretionary stocks drove the S&P 500 lower. Nike was one of the index’s worst laggards, dropping $7.72, or 7 percent, to $102.78 after the sneaker manufacturer reported nearly flat quarterly sales and a drop in earnings.

Mega-cap technology stocks also experienced a sell-off, which hurt the major indices. Each of Apple, Microsoft, and parent company Alphabet saw at least a 3 percent decline. To reach $107.40, Amazon.com lost $5.82, or 5.1 percent. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note’s yield increased in the bond market, rising to 3.206 percent from 3.193 percent on Monday. When bond prices decrease, yields increase. Globally, the Stoxx Europe 600 index increased by 0.3% thanks to a surge in equities for manufacturing and energy sectors. After the announcement, indexes generally increased throughout Asia.

Read More

Stock Market declines following massive rally last week

Stock Market declines following massive rally last week

U.S. stocks declined on Monday, erasing some of the gains made during a surge last week as expectations for the direction of interest-rate rises by the Federal Reserve softened. Early gains were erased by the S&P 500, which dropped 11.63 points, or 0.3 percent, to close at 3900.11. The technology-focused NASDAQ Composite Index fell 83.07 points, or 0.7 percent, to 11524.55, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 62.42 points, or 0.2 percent, to 31438.26.

Investors were reportedly in a holding pattern, and traders reported low volumes and a calm day. Justin Wiggs, managing director in stock trading at Stifel Nicolaus, compared the paltry volumes to those last week and said, “It’s extremely lethargic today.” He continued, describing how FTSE Russell’s stock benchmarks were rebalanced on Friday by adding and removing stocks.

The S&P 500 experienced its highest one-day percentage rise in the past two years on Friday. Investors have revised their expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy at a rapid pace in response to weaker-than-expected U.S. economic statistics. This year’s market volatility has been triggered by the Fed’s efforts to raise interest rates and rein in inflation. Earlier this month, the S&P 500 entered a bear market, or a 20 percent decline from its most recent top.

However, recent studies have shown that the American economy—and possibly inflation—is starting to slow down. The most recent proof was released on Friday, when the University of Michigan reduced its June estimate of inflation forecasts over the following five to ten years down, to 3.1 percent from 3.3 percent.

In other economic news, data released on Monday revealed that durable goods orders increased more than anticipated in May. According to the National Association of Realtors’ monthly index, U.S. pending-home sales increased by 0.7 percent in May. The rise occurs despite rising mortgage rates and ends a six-month slump.

Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers in Geneva, stated that “any good macroeconomic news is perceived as bad market news.” “If we continue to experience robust growth and inflation, the Fed and ECB will raise interest rates, and we will experience a recession.” He predicted that as investors rebalance their portfolios ahead of Thursday, which is the end of the second quarter, stocks are likely to receive more support in the near term.

He claimed that the recent signals of inflation having peaked and bearish market posture together “provide a double punch that is pushing equities up.” In recent weeks, Treasury yields have decreased as investors gambled that the Fed’s ambitions to raise rates will be thwarted by a deteriorating economy. According to experts at UBS, investors are boosting their wagers that the Fed will start lowering rates in the middle of 2023.

Investors have reduced their anticipation of rate increases this year as well. According to CME Group, traders assigned a 52 percent probability that the Fed will increase interest rates by an additional 2 percentage points this year in futures bets made on Monday. This is a decrease from a chance of 74% one week prior.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note’s yield was 3.133% on Monday, up from 3.125% on Friday but still significantly below its peak of 3.482% this month. Bond yields increase as prices decline. Some of the worst performers were consumer stocks. Following a proxy advisory firm’s recommendation that Spirit Airlines investors approve a planned merger with Frontier Airlines, the airline’s shares dropped $1.95, or 8%, to $22.57. Spirit received multiple offers from JetBlue Airways as well as a sweetened offer from Frontier on Friday. The offers will be voted on by Spirit’s shareholders at a special meeting on Thursday.

Read More

After stock rebound week, stock futures are marginally higher

After stock rebound week, stock futures are marginally higher

Following a significant recovery last week from this year’s sharp declines, U.S. stock futures increased marginally on Monday morning. Wall Street is getting ready to close out the worst first half for equities in decades despite the rebound. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 30 points, or 0.1 percent. The NASDAQ 100 futures increased by 0.51 percent and the S&P 500 futures increased by 0.22 percent. These actions came after a pivotal recovery week in which the Dow industrials rose by more than 800 points, or 2.7 percent. The NASDAQ Composite rose 3.3 percent, while the S&P 500 rose 3.1 percent.

The major averages recorded their first positive week since May thanks to their increases. The Dow increased 5.4% last week. The NASDAQ Composite rose 7.5 percent, while the S&P 500 rose 6.5 percent. Participants in the market kept determining whether stocks have reached a bottom or are only momentarily recovering from oversold levels. As investors rebalance their holdings at the end of the quarter, stocks may continue to rise in the near future. For the foreseeable future, the equity market is “expected to be… in a go-nowhere-fast phase,”

“Earnings are both a bright spot and a wildcard, while inflation is running hot, mood is muted, liquidity is disappearing, etc. Overall, that suggests to us that we’re likely to be in a sideways trending pattern for some time, Sandven continued. Wall Street anticipates the most recent reading of durable goods orders to be released Monday before the bell on the economic front.

Read More

Fears about economy is growing as Wall Street’s hiring frenzy eases

Fears about economy is growing as Wall Street’s hiring frenzy eases

After a hiring frenzy last year, Wall Street is slowing down due to the growing uncertainty around the U.S. economic future and the ensuing decline in the financial markets. In 2021 and early this year, Wall Street firms, including banks like Citigroup Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co, and Wells Fargo & Co, were obliged to pay more to attract and keep employees due to fierce hiring competition. The increase in bonuses was the biggest in 15 years.

However, hiring fever is waning, according to executives, recruitment experts, and recent data. According to Alan Johnson, managing director of compensation consultancy firm Johnson Associates, “by the end of 2021 it was white hot with unprecedented demand for employment and pay.” “It’s changing swiftly from extremely hot to normal, and by the end of the year it might even turn cold. Undoubtedly, a change is taking place.”

According to the most recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, firms in the securities, commodity contracts, investments, funds, and trusts sector were still adding jobs, but the rate of growth was noticeably slower in May, adding only 1,200 positions as opposed to 4,600 in April. In contrast, the industry experienced its largest annual headcount growth since 2000 in 2021, when the monthly average was 3,400.

In light of the weakening global markets, some clients have paused some talent searches, according to Alberto Mirabal, senior vice president for investment banking at the recruitment firm GQR Global Markets. These clients want to “see how things shake out” before adding to their already sizable teams.

We’re observing a little slowness, he added. Some Wall Street firms are concerned about the possibility of a recession due to rising inflation that has been compounded by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent interest rate increases. Layoffs are already happening in several areas of the banking sector, most notably the mortgage sector, which is especially vulnerable to interest rate increases that harm house sales.

According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase & Co. is this week reassigning hundreds of workers from its home loan division and firing hundreds more. The industry is not yet experiencing widespread hiring freezes or layoffs, the recruiters claimed, although in general. In addition, some smaller companies, such as boutique investment bank Lazard, are trying to seize the opportunity presented by the evolving market to attract top personnel for themselves.

After 2021, which he described as being the most difficult in a decade for staff retention and remuneration, Lazard Chief Executive Kenneth Jacobs claimed that a hiring slowdown was assisting his company in attracting new talent. Jacobs stated last week at a Morgan Stanley conference that “the rivalry for talent is lessening.” “I believe we’ll try to profit from this.”

Equity capital markets have experienced the sharpest reduction in activity; according to Julian Bell is the managing director and head of the Americas for the Sheffield Haworth talent firm. Broker-dealers will suffer more than full-service banks as a result, according to this. According to him, brokers in the main equities capital markets sectors of healthcare/biotech and technology will suffer the most. Investment bankers are not worried about impending layoffs, despite the fact that hiring is decreasing and salary expectations have decreased following an extraordinarily robust payout in 2021.

According to Anthony Keizner, managing partner at Odyssey Search Partners, whose clients include private equity, hedge funds, and investment funds, “they still think they’re relatively understaffed for the deal volumes that they have.” According to him, certain clients are still quite hungry for skill. The car isn’t about to crash, Keizner replied, “maybe the foot is off the gas just a little.”

Read More

Stocks decline as Wall Street’s effort at a rally fails

Stocks decline as Wall Street’s effort at a rally fails

As markets struggled to maintain a recovery from earlier in the day, stocks modestly declined on Wednesday in turbulent trading. Traders also considered remarks made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who reaffirmed the position of the central bank in battling inflation. In the last hour of trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 47.12 points, or 0.15 percent, to 30,483.13. To 3,759.89, the S&P 500 fell 0.13 percent. To 11,053.08, the NASDAQ Composite dropped 0.15 percent.

Stock prices have recently been affected by growing fears of a Wall Street slump. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell testified before Congress that the Fed has the “resolve” to rein in inflation, which has risen to 40-year highs. The Fed chairman told the Senate Banking Committee, “At the Fed, we realise the suffering high inflation is inflicting. “We are acting quickly to bring inflation back down because we are strongly committed to doing so.”

Until it sees “compelling evidence that inflation is heading down,” Powell continued, the Fed will maintain its current trajectory. He added that it has grown “much more difficult” to provide a smooth landing for the economy without one. The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.75 percentage points last week and warned that a similar hike could occur again the following month. Investors were alarmed by the central bank’s previous week change to a more aggressive stance against inflation, fearing that it would prefer a recession to continued high inflation.

Jerome Powell has made it clearly apparent that the Fed will keep raising interest rates until inflation starts to decline because inflation is still the largest risk to financial assets. Robert Schein, chief investment officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management, wrote that a sustained rally for risk assets is difficult to envision until that time. Till the Fed gives the go-ahead, “tight monetary conditions will continue to be a headwind for financial markets,” Schein said.

This week on Wall Street, anticipation of an impending recession grew. According to evidence showing that consumers are beginning to cut down on spending, Citigroup increased the likelihood of a worldwide recession to 50%. The cumulative probability of recession is now approaching 50%, according to a note from Citigroup. “The experience of history indicates that disinflation generally bears considerable costs for growth,” the paper stated.

According to Goldman Sachs, the risks are “greater and more front-loaded,” making a recession for the American economy more likely. The Fed will feel compelled to respond forcefully to high headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations if energy prices continue to rise, even if activity slows sharply, the firm said in a note to clients. “The main reasons are that our baseline growth path is now lower and that we are increasingly concerned.” In the meantime, UBS stated in a note to clients on Tuesday that while in its base scenario it does not anticipate a U.S. or global recession in 2022 or 2023, “it is obvious that the possibilities of a hard landing are rising.”

Given the robustness of consumer and bank balance sheets, UBS continued, “Even if the economy does enter a recession, it should be a brief one. “Oil prices fell on worries that a weaker economy may reduce fuel consumption, hurting energy equities. With a decline of about 4.2 percent, the sector had the worst performance on the broad-market index. Shares of ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil fell by around 6.3 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively. Exxon Mobil and Occidental Petroleum had declines of 3.6% and almost 4%, respectively.

Read More

After a recent pullback, US stocks are up 2%

After a recent pullback, US stocks are up 2%

Following a recent selloff, global market indices rose dramatically on Tuesday, with major U.S. stock indexes each closing the day up more than 2%, while the Japanese yen sank to its lowest level since October 1998 against the US dollar. As investors returned from a long weekend, Wall Street gained, with buyers snapping up shares of megacap growth and energy businesses hammered by global economic concerns last week.

With the rise in oil prices, energy stocks have risen as well. Summer fuel demand drove up oil prices. “You’ve pushed the ball under the water deep enough now that we’re getting a bounce,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago, after back-to-back weeks of 5% drops. However, according to Nolte, “Interest rates are continuing to rise. The price of oil continues to rise.” Investors have been on edge due to expectations of interest rate hikes from major central banks and concerns about a worldwide recession. To confront high inflation, central banks are expected to tighten policy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 641.47 points, or 2.15 percent, to 30,530.25; the S&P 500 increased by 89.95 points, or 2.45 percent, to 3,764.79; and the NASDAQ Composite increased by 270.95 points, or 2.51 percent, to 11,069.30. The pan-European STOXX 600 index increased 0.35 percent, while MSCI’s global stock index increased 1.83 percent.

The risk-off mindset that dragged on US markets last week has subsided, resulting in higher Treasury yields. Benchmark 10-year rates were at 3.305 percent, up from the previous week’s finish of 3.239 percent. For signals on rates, all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hearing to the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) now believes there is a 30% risk that the US economy would enter a recession in the coming year, up from its previous estimate of 15%.

In the foreign exchange market, the Japanese yen fell to 136.330 per dollar against the US dollar. Fumio Kishida, Japan’s prime minister, said the central bank should keep its current ultra-loose monetary policy. This distinguishes it from other major central banks. Brent crude futures increased by 52 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $114.65 a barrel. The July West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract in the United States ended on Tuesday, finishing at $110.65, up $1.09, or 1%. At $109.52, the more active August contract was up $1.53. Gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,832.27 an ounce on the spot market.

Read More
Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

Read More
Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

Read More
Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

Read More
WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

Read More
Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

Read More
WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

Read More
WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

Read More
EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

Read More
EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

Read More
EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

Read More
EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

Read More
GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

Read More
EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

Read More
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

Read More
US Core PCE Inflation Likely to Hold Steady

Pound Sterling Steady Ahead of US Core PCE Inflation Data

Pound Sterling Steady Ahead of US Core PCE Inflation Data

The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains subdued against the US Dollar (USD) during Friday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair has edged down this week as investors exercise caution ahead of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for May, set to be released today.

The core PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, is projected to have slowed to 2.6% year-over-year (YoY) from April’s 2.8%. On a monthly basis, the underlying inflation is expected to have increased modestly by 0.1%, compared to the previous rise of 0.2%.

Soft inflation figures could raise expectations for early rate cuts by the Fed, while higher-than-expected numbers would likely diminish prospects for rate cuts, thereby strengthening the US Dollar. Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is trading near the critical resistance level of 106.00.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day fed funds futures pricing data indicate that traders have priced in two rate cuts for this year, with the policy-easing cycle expected to begin at the September meeting. However, Fed officials have been advocating for maintaining current interest rates until there is clear evidence that inflation is on a steady decline towards the target rate of 2%.

On Thursday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated that it is not yet appropriate to reduce interest rates, warning of potential further rate hikes if progress in reducing inflation stalls or reverses. This stance underscores the Fed’s cautious approach to policy changes, aiming to ensure that inflation trends are firmly under control before considering any rate cuts.

As the market awaits the core PCE data, the GBP/USD pair is likely to continue experiencing subdued trading. Investors will be closely watching the inflation figures to gauge the Fed’s next moves, which will significantly influence the USD’s strength and the GBP/USD pair’s direction in the near term.

Read More
Australian Dollar Rises as Higher Inflation

Australian Dollar Rises as Higher Inflation Lowers RBA Rate Cut Odds

Australian Dollar Rises as Higher Inflation Lowers RBA Rate Cut Odds

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has gained traction following the release of May’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which came in higher than expected. This persistently high inflation poses a challenge to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) potential rate cuts, thereby providing support to the Aussie Dollar and underpinning the AUD/USD pair.

RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent highlighted on Wednesday the importance of vigilance regarding potential inflation increases. Kent emphasized that current policies are effectively contributing to slower demand growth and lower inflation. He also noted that the RBA is keeping all options open concerning future interest rate adjustments, as reported by Bloomberg.

This rise in the AUD comes as the US Dollar remains steady after posting gains on Tuesday. Investors are cautious ahead of significant US economic data releases later this week. The revised US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) is set to be released on Thursday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. These data points are critical as they will provide insights into the health of the US economy and influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.

The stronger-than-expected CPI data in Australia reflects ongoing inflationary pressures, which complicates the RBA’s policy path. With inflation remaining high, the central bank may be less inclined to cut interest rates, a factor that supports the AUD. Investors are now weighing the implications of these inflation figures on future RBA decisions, particularly in the context of global economic uncertainty.

In the US, the market is anticipating the GDP and PCE Price Index data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next moves. A robust GDP report could reinforce the case for a continued pause in rate hikes, whereas a weaker report might revive expectations for potential easing. Similarly, the PCE Price Index, being the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, will be closely watched. A higher reading could lead to a more hawkish stance from the Fed, while a lower figure might ease some inflation concerns.

Overall, the interplay between the Australian and US economic data is creating a dynamic environment for the AUD/USD pair. As traders digest these developments, the focus remains on central bank policies and their responses to inflationary pressures. The outcome of this week’s economic reports will be crucial in shaping the near-term direction of both currencies.

Read More
Australian Dollar Falls Despite RBA's Hawkish Outlook

Australian Dollar Falls Despite RBA’s Hawkish Outlook

Australian Dollar Falls Despite RBA’s Hawkish Outlook

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its downward trend for the third consecutive session on Monday, yet there are indications that the decline in the AUD/USD exchange rate might be moderated by the monetary policy outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). During a recent press conference, as reported by ABC News, RBA Governor Michele Bullock explicitly mentioned that the Board is considering potential rate hikes in the future, rather than cuts, highlighting a hawkish stance in their monetary policy approach.

On the other side, the US Dollar (USD) holds its ground, remaining stable as Federal Reserve officials have pushed back the timeline for the year’s first anticipated rate cut. The adjustment in expectations was quantified by the CME FedWatch Tool, which now indicates that investors are pricing in a nearly 65.9% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, a decrease from 70.2% just a week earlier. This recalibration in investor expectations reflects a broader trend of cautious optimism and strategic adjustments among market participants, influencing the interplay between the AUD and USD as each navigates its respective economic signals and policy directions.

Read More
Australian Dollar Rises on Strong PMI Data

Australian Dollar Rises on Strong PMI Data and Softer US Dollar

Australian Dollar Rises on Strong PMI Data and Softer US Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) saw mild gains during Thursday’s Asian session, edging higher following the release of the Australian Judo Bank PMI report. The report indicated that business activity in Australia continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in March and April. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent decision to maintain a hawkish stance on interest rates is likely to support the AUD in the near term.

However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose potential risks. Israeli officials have reiterated their readiness for an all-out war against Hezbollah, which could drive investors towards safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar (USD). Such geopolitical uncertainties often lead to increased demand for the USD, as it is considered a safer asset during times of conflict.

Looking ahead, the focus will shift to the advanced US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI data set to be released on Friday. If this data shows an improvement in US business activity for June, it could further bolster the Greenback. Stronger US economic data typically supports the USD by increasing expectations of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This scenario could create a headwind for the AUD/USD pair, potentially limiting the Australian Dollar’s gains.

Despite these potential challenges, the AUD remains supported by domestic factors. The Australian Judo Bank PMI report, while showing a slowdown, still indicates growth in business activity. This resilience, coupled with the RBA’s hawkish stance, provides a solid foundation for the AUD. The central bank’s commitment to maintaining a tight monetary policy reflects confidence in the Australian economy’s underlying strength, which is likely to continue bolstering the currency.

In summary, the Australian Dollar is experiencing moderate gains supported by domestic economic data and the RBA’s monetary policy stance. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and upcoming US economic data could influence the AUD/USD pair’s direction. Traders will need to monitor these developments closely, as they could impact market sentiment and drive short-term fluctuations in the currency pair. The interplay between domestic resilience and external uncertainties will be crucial in determining the AUD’s trajectory in the coming days.

Read More
Australian Dollar Rises on RBA's Hawkish Stance

Australian Dollar Rises on RBA’s Hawkish Stance

Australian Dollar Rises on RBA’s Hawkish Stance

The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged on Wednesday, driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance during its June meeting. The RBA’s decision to maintain current interest rates while signaling a prolonged period before any rate cuts has pushed market expectations for the start of the easing cycle to 2025. This outlook continues to support the AUD, providing it with significant upward momentum.

In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) is facing downward pressure due to weaker-than-expected Retail Sales data, which has increased the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates later this year. This data has undermined the Greenback across the board, adding to the AUD’s gains.

The US markets are closed on Wednesday in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day, limiting immediate trading activity. However, investors are already looking ahead to the end of the week when the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI reports will be released. These reports are crucial indicators of US economic health, and any signs of expanding business activity could provide a lift to the USD, potentially capping the AUD’s current upward trend.

The RBA’s hawkish hold has been a significant factor in the AUD’s recent performance. By maintaining rates and signaling a delay in the easing cycle, the RBA has reinforced market confidence in the Australian economy. This stance contrasts with the Fed’s, which is increasingly seen as likely to implement rate cuts in response to softer economic data. The divergence in central bank policies is a key driver of the current currency movements.

In addition to central bank policies, economic data releases continue to play a pivotal role. The weaker US Retail Sales figures have cast doubt on the strength of the US economic recovery, fueling speculation about potential Fed rate cuts. Conversely, robust Australian economic data supports the RBA’s decision to hold rates steady and delay any easing.

Looking ahead, the focus will shift to the upcoming US PMI reports. Positive data indicating growth in US business activity could bolster the USD, limiting the AUD’s gains. However, if the data disappoints, it could further pressure the USD and support the AUD.

In summary, the Australian Dollar is benefiting from the RBA’s hawkish stance and weaker US economic data, which have shifted market expectations for both currencies. The upcoming US PMI reports will be crucial in determining the near-term direction for the AUD/USD pair.

Read More
China's May Retail Sales Exceed Expectations

China’s May Retail Sales Exceed Expectations; Industrial Output and Investment Lag

China’s May Retail Sales Exceed Expectations; Industrial Output and Investment Lag

In May, China’s retail sales outperformed expectations, increasing by 3.7% year-on-year, surpassing the anticipated 3% rise forecasted by a Reuters poll of economists. This robust retail performance indicates resilient consumer spending despite broader economic challenges.

However, other key economic indicators did not fare as well. Industrial output grew by 5.6% year-on-year, falling short of the 6% growth expected. Fixed asset investment also missed forecasts, rising by only 4% compared to last May, just below the anticipated 4.2% increase. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.92 trillion yuan ($540.32 billion), with urban area sales up 3.7% and rural area sales climbing by 4.1%.

The shortfall in fixed asset investment was significantly influenced by a sharper decline in real estate investment. Excluding real estate, total fixed asset investment was 8.6% higher compared to the previous year. This highlights the ongoing struggles within China’s real estate sector, which continues to drag on overall investment figures.

The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5% in May, unchanged from April, and 0.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year. This steady unemployment rate suggests a relatively stable labor market amid fluctuating economic conditions.

China’s export sector showed strength, with exports growing by 7.6% year-on-year in May, exceeding the forecasted 6% increase. However, imports underperformed, rising by only 1.8%, missing expectations.

Loan data released Friday highlighted a continued lackluster demand for credit. Outstanding yuan loans increased by 9.3% in May from the previous year, marking the slowest growth on record since 1978. The M1 money supply, which includes cash in circulation and demand deposits, fell by 4.2% year-on-year in May, the steepest decline since records began in 1986. Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that a state media outlet linked the slowdown in M1 growth to a crackdown on fake loans and outflows related to wealth management products.

Inflation data for May showed that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year. This modest inflation increase indicates subdued price pressures within the broader economy, reflecting the mixed economic signals from various sectors.

Read More
Japanese Yen's Downside Limited

Japanese Yen’s Downside Limited by Rising Producer Prices

Japanese Yen’s Downside Limited by Rising Producer Prices

The Japanese Yen (JPY) extended its losing streak for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY pair strengthening as investors favored the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision and the release of US inflation figures for May, scheduled for later in the North American trading hours.

The Japanese Yen might find some support from higher-than-expected Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The latest data revealed that producer prices surged by 2.4% year-on-year in May, surpassing market expectations of a 2.0% rise. This increase in producer prices has raised concerns about potential higher consumer inflation, which could influence future monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Despite the rise in producer prices, the BoJ is widely expected to maintain its current monetary policy stance unchanged on Friday. The divergence in interest rates between the US and Japan continues to undermine the Japanese Yen. The Fed’s tighter monetary policy contrasts sharply with the BoJ’s ongoing commitment to maintaining low-interest rates, creating a supportive environment for the USD/JPY pair.

The strength of the US Dollar is further bolstered by robust US economic data. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against six major currencies, remains strong. Recent US jobs data for May showed significant employment gains, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September by at least 25 basis points has decreased to 52%, down from 67% a week earlier.

Investors are now closely watching the upcoming US inflation data. A higher inflation reading could further diminish expectations for a Fed rate cut, potentially providing additional support for the USD. Conversely, if inflation data comes in lower than expected, it might renew market speculation about possible rate cuts later in the year, which could influence the USD/JPY pair.

In the meantime, the Japanese Yen’s downside might be limited by the unexpected rise in producer prices, which suggests underlying inflationary pressures in Japan. If these pressures translate into higher consumer prices, the BoJ may face increasing calls to adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy, which could lend support to the Yen.

Overall, the interplay between US monetary policy expectations and Japanese inflation data will be crucial in determining the direction of the USD/JPY pair in the near term. Investors will continue to monitor these factors closely, as any significant shifts could lead to notable movements in the currency markets.

Read More
US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

Read More

Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

Read More

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

Read More

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

Read More

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

Read More

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

Read More

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

Read More

Popular Articles

USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens

EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens; FOMC Minutes in Spotlight

Forex Trading

Unlocking the Power of Forex Trading: Why Xtreme Markets is Your Ultimate Trading Partner

Commodity currencies

What Are Commodity Currencies? How They Impact Your Forex Trades

AI changing Forex trading?

How is AI changing Forex trading?

Categories

,
,
,

Subscribe Now!