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Wall Street is poised to start the week slightly higher as investors closely watch the latest inflation data, seeking confirmation

What’s Moving Markets: US CPI, Retail Earnings, and UK Inflation

What’s Moving Markets: US CPI, Retail Earnings, and UK Inflation

Wall Street is poised to start the week slightly higher as investors closely watch the latest inflation data, seeking confirmation that the Federal Reserve might begin cutting interest rates in September. While the quarterly earnings season is winding down, the retail sector will take center stage in the coming days.

  1. July CPI in Focus

The trajectory of U.S. interest rates remains a key concern for investors, making Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price data the most anticipated economic release of the week.

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, known for her typically hawkish stance, acknowledged some progress on inflation recently, though she stressed that it still remains “uncomfortably above” the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed held its policy rate steady at 5.25%-5.50% in late July but hinted at a possible rate cut in September if inflation continues to ease.

The July CPI is expected to show further movement toward the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target, with core inflation predicted to drop slightly to 3.2%, its lowest level since April 2021. Fed fund futures suggest a 49% chance of a half-point rate cut in September, down from a near certainty last week.

  1. Futures Edge Higher on Inflation Watch

U.S. stock futures rose modestly on Monday, as investors cautiously approach a week filled with key inflation data and significant retail earnings.

As of 04:00 ET (08:00 GMT), Dow futures were up 40 points (0.1%), S&P 500 futures gained 11 points (0.2%), and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 60 points (0.3%).

Last week, the main Wall Street indices ended with minor losses, recovering slightly after an early-week slump. Jobless claims data helped ease concerns about the labor market and the overall health of the U.S. economy. Now, the focus shifts to the consumer price index and insights from several Federal Reserve officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.

Comments from these policymakers last Thursday suggested growing confidence that inflation is cooling enough to warrant rate cuts.

  1. Earnings Season Winds Down

As the quarterly earnings season draws to a close, the spotlight shifts to key retailers like Home Depot (NYSE

) and Walmart (NYSE

), who are set to report this week. Investors are particularly interested in the outlook for consumer spending, a critical driver of economic growth, amid recent signs of economic softness.

Other prominent companies reporting include Cisco Systems (NASDAQ

) and Fox Corporation (NASDAQ

). In Europe, UBS (SIX

) reports on Wednesday, and it’s a busy week for insurers like Hannover Re (OTC

), Aviva (LON

), NN Group (AS

), and Admiral (LON

). China’s leading internet firms, including Tencent Holdings (OTC

), Alibaba Group (NYSE

), and JD.com (NASDAQ

), will also announce their June quarter results.

  1. UK Inflation in the Spotlight

The U.K. has a packed economic data calendar this week as investors seek clues on whether the Bank of England will continue its rate-cutting cycle next month.

After cutting rates for the first time since 2020 earlier this month, the BoE faces a market pricing in a roughly 33% chance of another quarter-point cut in September. Wage growth data, due Tuesday, and Wednesday’s inflation figures will be closely monitored for signs of persistent price pressures, particularly in the still-hot services sector.

Catherine Mann, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, expressed concerns in a podcast about the persistence of wage and price pressures, suggesting that these could be structural and take years to dissipate. Mann voted against this month’s rate cut, in a narrow 5-4 decision.

  1. Crude Oil Prices Continue to Rise

Crude oil prices climbed for the fifth consecutive session on Monday, supported by easing concerns over the U.S. economy and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

As of 04:00 ET, U.S. crude futures (WTI) were up 0.9% to $77.55 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.7% to $80.25 a barrel. Both benchmarks gained over 3% last week, their first positive week in five.

Geopolitical risks, particularly fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supplies, have added a risk premium to prices. Encouraging U.S. economic data, suggesting that a recession in the world’s largest oil consumer is not imminent, also bolstered the oil market last week.

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Asian stock markets

Asian Stocks Climb on Eased Recession Worries, Positive China Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Climb on Eased Recession Worries, Positive China Inflation Data

Asian stock markets saw gains on Friday as fears of an imminent U.S. recession eased, bolstered by mildly encouraging inflation data from China, which lifted investor sentiment.

However, despite the upbeat session, regional markets were still on track to post weekly losses, having experienced steep declines earlier in the week.

Asian stocks benefited from a positive handover from Wall Street, where better-than-expected jobless claims data suggested that the U.S. labor market might not be in as much trouble as initially feared. U.S. stock index futures also saw a slight uptick during Asian trading hours.

Chinese Markets Lag Behind Despite Positive CPI Data

China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes each rose by 0.3%, though they underperformed compared to other Asian markets. Both indexes were down approximately 0.8% for the week, marking their third consecutive week of losses.

China’s inflation data showed some signs of improvement. The consumer price index (CPI) rose more than expected, while the producer price index (PPI) contracted at a slower pace than anticipated. This suggests that the series of interest rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China in July may be beginning to yield results. However, it remains uncertain whether these measures will be enough to reverse China’s broader deflationary trend.

Investor sentiment towards Chinese markets has deteriorated in recent weeks, driven by a series of weak economic indicators. As a result, the country’s benchmark indexes are hovering near six-month lows.

Japanese Stocks Rally, Recovering Weekly Losses

Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX indexes surged by 2% and 1.5%, respectively, on Friday. While both indexes were still on track to lose about 1.5% for the week, they managed to recover a significant portion of their earlier losses.

The rebound in Japanese markets followed efforts by Bank of Japan officials to downplay the central bank’s unexpectedly hawkish stance from the previous week. Bargain hunting in major tech stocks and strong earnings reports from companies like Tokyo Electron, which rose 1.7% after posting better-than-expected quarterly earnings, also supported the recovery.

Broader Asian markets also advanced, with tech-heavy indexes such as South Korea’s KOSPI and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rising between 1.5% and 2%. These gains mirrored the rebound seen in U.S. markets.

Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.4% but remained down 1.9% for the week, having clawed back most of its earlier losses.

Futures for India’s Nifty 50 index indicated a slightly positive open after the index, along with the BSE Sensex 30, fell on Thursday. The decline followed the Reserve Bank of India’s unexpectedly hawkish stance and a slight downgrade in its growth outlook for the current quarter.

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Australian Dollar Appreciates Amid Hawkish Sentiment

Australian Dollar Appreciates Amid Hawkish Sentiment Surrounding RBA

Australian Dollar Appreciates Amid Hawkish Sentiment Surrounding RBA

The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) following comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock on Thursday. Bullock emphasized the need to remain vigilant about inflation risks, indicating the possibility of further rate hikes if necessary. She noted that inflation might not return to the RBA’s 2–3% target range until the end of 2025. The AUD/USD pair also gained support from the RBA’s decision to maintain the cash rate at 4.35% earlier this week, reinforcing a hawkish outlook.

In contrast, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting stance starting in September, driven by weaker July employment data and growing concerns about a potential recession. The CME Fed Watch tool now shows a 72.0% probability of a 50-basis point interest rate cut by the Fed in September, a sharp increase from 11.8% just a week ago. This expectation of deeper rate cuts is likely to weigh on the US Dollar in the near term.

Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar Hovers Around 0.6550

On Thursday, the Australian Dollar is trading around 0.6530. Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests that the AUD/USD pair is consolidating above a descending channel, signaling a potential weakening of the bearish trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen from the oversold level of 30, indicating the possibility of further upward movement.

In terms of support, the AUD/USD pair may find support around the upper boundary of the descending channel near the 0.6470 level. A break below this support could push the pair down toward the lower boundary of the channel around 0.6420.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6535, with additional resistance at 0.6575, where previous support has now turned into resistance. A breakout above this level could drive the AUD/USD pair toward a six-month high of 0.6798.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Continues to Decline Near 1.0900 Amid US Dollar Strength

EUR/USD Continues to Decline Near 1.0900 Amid US Dollar Strength

The EUR/USD pair is trading lower around 1.0915 after pulling back from seven-month highs near 1.1008 during the Asian session on Wednesday. A stronger US Dollar (USD) is putting downward pressure on the pair. Investors are now looking ahead to Germany’s June Trade Balance and Industrial Production reports, expected later today.

Improved risk sentiment and rising US Treasury bond yields are offering some support to the Greenback. However, market participants are anticipating more aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting in September. This expectation could limit the USD’s gains and potentially provide a boost to EUR/USD. Currently, the market has priced in a 69.5% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut in September, up significantly from 13.2% last week, according to the CME Fed Watch tool.

In the US, the trade deficit narrowed to $73.1 billion in June, with exports of goods and services increasing at their fastest pace this year, according to the US Census Bureau’s Tuesday report.

On the other hand, weak data from the eurozone is putting additional pressure on the Euro (EUR). Eurostat reported on Tuesday that Eurozone retail sales unexpectedly fell by 0.3% in June, compared to a 0.5% increase in May. The market had expected a modest 0.1% rise.

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Australian Dollar

Australian Dollar Rises After Hawkish Remarks from RBA Governor Bullock

Australian Dollar Rises After Hawkish Remarks from RBA Governor Bullock

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has strengthened following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent monetary policy decision on Tuesday. The RBA opted to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% for the sixth consecutive time. After the decision, RBA Governor Michele Bullock spoke at a press conference, stressing the importance of maintaining focus on inflation. Bullock pointed out the ongoing risk that inflation could take longer to reach the target, indicating that interest rates may need to stay elevated for an extended period. She also noted that a near-term reduction in the cash rate does not align with the current strategy.

The AUD has faced pressure against the US Dollar (USD) due to rapid policy shifts by central banks and growing concerns about a potential hard landing for the US economy. Additionally, second-quarter inflation data has lowered expectations for another rate hike by the RBA. Market forecasts now anticipate an RBA rate cut as soon as November, much earlier than the previous prediction of April next year.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar is weakening as expectations build for a 50-basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 74.5% probability of this larger-than-expected cut occurring at the September meeting, a sharp increase from the 11.4% likelihood reported just a week earlier.

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EUR/JPY Stabilizes Around 157.00, Rebounds

EUR/JPY Stabilizes Around 157.00, Rebounds Following PMI Data

EUR/JPY Stabilizes Around 157.00, Rebounds Following PMI Data

EUR/JPY continues its downtrend for the sixth consecutive day, trading around 156.90 during the early European session on Monday. However, the pair has trimmed some of its intraday losses after the release of key economic data, including the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) and Germany’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

The HCOB Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for July edged up to 50.2, slightly above the forecasted 50.1. Meanwhile, Germany’s Composite PMI registered at 49.1, compared to the anticipated 48.7 and previous readings. The Services PMI also rose to 52.5, surpassing expectations and the prior 52.0 figure.

In Europe, market participants are anticipating at least two additional rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2024, with the next cut likely to occur in September. ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras indicated in a Thursday interview that the sluggish eurozone economy might push inflation below the ECB’s 2% target, supporting his outlook for two interest rate cuts this year, as reported by Reuters.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is gaining strength amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might further tighten its monetary policy, which could offer continued support to the JPY in the near term.

Minutes from the BoJ’s June meeting revealed that some members expressed concern about rising import prices due to the recent weakening of the JPY, which could pose an upside risk to inflation. One member emphasized that cost-push inflation could intensify underlying inflation if it leads to higher inflation expectations and wage growth.

Additionally, safe-haven demand is bolstering the JPY, exerting downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross. This trend is partly driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On Sunday, an Israeli airstrike struck two schools, resulting in at least 30 casualties, according to Reuters. Moreover, U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken indicated that Iran and Hezbollah might be preparing to launch an attack against Israel as early as Monday, based on information from three sources briefed on the situation, as reported by Axios.

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USD/CHF Extends Losses Amid Rising Fed Rate Cut Prospects

USD/CHF Extends Losses Amid Rising Fed Rate Cut Prospects

USD/CHF Extends Losses Amid Rising Fed Rate Cut Prospects

The USD/CHF pair continues its decline for the fourth consecutive trading day on Monday, staying below the key psychological level of 0.9000. This decline is primarily driven by a weakening US Dollar (USD) amid increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will shift towards policy normalization starting from the September meeting.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, found temporary support near a three-week low around 104.85. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields edged higher to 4.3% but remained close to their weekly low.

The growing expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates sooner than previously anticipated have negatively impacted the USD and bond yields. In the latest dot plot, Fed officials indicated only one rate cut for this year, expected in the last quarter. However, the possibility of the Fed lowering interest rates as early as September has increased, partly due to signs of moderating strength in the US labor market. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June showed the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.1%, while annual Average Hourly Earnings, an indicator of wage inflation, decelerated as expected to 3.9%. Although the payrolls data exceeded estimates, it remained below May’s figures.

This week, investors are particularly focused on the US inflation data for June, scheduled to be released on Thursday. This data will be crucial in shaping expectations for future Fed policy moves.

On the Swiss Franc front, easing inflationary pressures could prompt the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to consider further interest rate reductions. The annual Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerated to 1.3% in June, slightly below economists’ expectations of a steady growth rate of 1.4%. This decline in inflation suggests that the SNB might continue its trend of reducing interest rates to manage economic conditions effectively.

Overall, the combination of a potentially dovish Fed and easing inflation in Switzerland is creating a complex trading environment for the USD/CHF pair. Market participants will closely watch upcoming economic indicators and central bank communications to navigate these dynamics. The key factors to monitor include the US inflation data and any further signals from the Fed regarding their policy direction, which could significantly impact the future trajectory of the USD/CHF pair.

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The Dow futures remained unchanged, but Zoom witnessed a notable 17.1% drop

The Dow futures remained unchanged, but Zoom witnessed a notable 17.1% drop

During Monday’s evening trading, U.S. stock futures experienced minimal movement, remaining within a narrow range, following moderate gains in major benchmark averages. Investors were focused on upcoming quarterly earnings reports scheduled for the week. By 7:15 pm ET (11:15 pm GMT), Dow Jones Futures, S&P 500 Futures, and Nasdaq 100 Futures were all trading flat.

In after-hours trading, ZoomInfo Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: ZI) saw a significant dip of 17.1% after reporting its Q2 earnings. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.26, slightly higher than the expected $0.23, while its revenues reached $308.6 million, slightly below the anticipated $310.94 million.

Similarly, Yum China Holdings Inc (NYSE: YUMC) experienced a decline of 2.8% following its Q2 earnings release. The company reported an EPS of $0.47, slightly surpassing the expected $0.46, but its revenues were $2.65 billion, falling short of the projected $2.72 billion.

Harmonic (NASDAQ: HLIT) also faced a significant drop of 13.7% after reporting Q2 earnings. The company’s EPS was $0.12, missing the expected $0.13, and its revenues were $156 million, lower than the expected $167.52 million.

In contrast, Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET) witnessed a substantial increase of 14% following its Q2 earnings announcement. The company reported an EPS of $1.58, surpassing the expected $1.44, and its revenues were $1.46 billion, higher than the expected $1.38 billion.

Looking ahead to Tuesday’s trading session, market participants will closely monitor the release of Markit and ISM manufacturing PMIs and JOLTs job openings data. Additionally, several prominent companies, including Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ: AMD), Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX), and Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE: UBER), will be reporting their quarterly earnings.

During Monday’s regular trading hours, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 100.2 points or 0.3% to reach 35,559.5. The S&P 500 also gained 6.7 points or 0.2%, reaching 4,589, and the NASDAQ Composite rose by 29.4 points or 0.2% to reach 14,346.

On the bond markets, the United States 10-Year rates were at 3.965%. Investors will keep a close eye on economic data and corporate earnings to gauge the market’s direction in the upcoming trading sessions.

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US Dollar Stabilizes After Recent Losses

U.S. Stocks Rise as Market Awaits Fed Decision

U.S. Stocks Rise as Market Awaits Fed Decision

On Tuesday, the U.S. stock market experienced a positive swing, with investors closely watching earnings reports and eagerly anticipating the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the key indices in the stock market, ended the day with a marginal increase of 0.1 percent, settling at 35,437.93 points. This marked the twelfth straight day of gains for the index. Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 Index rose by 0.3 percent to reach 4,567.54, and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index saw an increase of 0.6 percent, closing at 14,144.56.

Several companies released their earnings reports, which resulted in a mixed response on Wall Street. Shares of General Electric, Sherwin-Williams, and 3M saw substantial increases following their respective earnings announcements. Conversely, despite raising its full-year guidance, General Motors experienced a drop in share value.

In other corporate news, shipping giant UPS saw its shares dip by 1.9 percent after it reached a tentative five-year contract agreement with the Teamsters union. The agreement helped avert a potentially devastating nationwide strike. However, despite avoiding a disruptive strike, Steve Sosnick from Interactive Brokers suggested that UPS’s costs would likely increase as a result of the agreement.

Investors also kept a close eye on Alphabet, Google’s parent company, and Microsoft, both due to release their earnings reports after the market closed. The anticipation surrounding these tech giants’ earnings reports added an extra layer of suspense to the day’s trading activities on Wall Street.

However, the main focus for investors remained the impending decision by the U.S. central bank on interest rates. The decision is due at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates for the eleventh consecutive time. Market participants are keen to glean any signs of further increases beyond this.

According to Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital, the market is already factoring in a hike of 25 basis points. He further speculated that there might be indications that the central bank is nearing the end of its monetary tightening cycle.

In global economic news, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly upgraded its outlook for global growth this year on Tuesday. This provided a glimmer of hope amid the prevailing economic uncertainties.

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Optimism in Asian Stock Markets as Fed, ECB, and BoJ Meetings Loom; China’s Performance Lags Despite Stimulus Hopes

Optimism in Asian Stock Markets as Fed, ECB, and BoJ Meetings Loom; China’s Performance Lags Despite Stimulus Hopes

Asian stock markets experienced a mixed start to the week, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 emerging as the top performer, soaring by nearly 1.5% fueled by robust quarterly earnings from major automotive manufacturers. The overall Japanese market sentiment also received a boost from expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would maintain its ultra-dovish stance during the forthcoming two-day policy meeting set to conclude on Friday.

In contrast, Chinese stocks struggled to keep pace with their regional counterparts due to mounting concerns over a real estate sector debt crunch and fears of a slowdown in economic growth. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong experienced a significant drop of over 1%, ranking among the weakest performers on the first trading day of the week. However, there are hopes that China will implement additional stimulus measures to mitigate potential losses.

In line with these expectations, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) revealed new measures aimed at encouraging and supporting private investments in specific infrastructure sectors. The NDRC also pledged to provide enhanced financial backing for private projects, although the exact details are yet to be disclosed. Despite these efforts, the market sentiment remained cautious and failed to see a substantial lift.

Investors across the region appeared to be exercising caution and adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of key central bank events scheduled for the week. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday following a two-day meeting, and a 25 basis points interest rate hike is widely anticipated. However, there are doubts among market participants regarding the extent of the Fed’s commitment to a more dovish policy stance.

Attention will be closely focused on the accompanying policy statement and the post-meeting press conference, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks could provide valuable insights into the central bank’s future plans. Subsequently, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy update on Friday will be key events to watch.

Meanwhile, traders on Monday were keenly awaiting the release of flash PMI prints from the Euro Zone, the UK, and the US, hoping for valuable cues to drive market momentum.

Overall, the Asian stock markets are facing a delicate balancing act, with some countries experiencing positive economic indicators and strong corporate earnings, while others grapple with uncertainties and the need for further stimulus measures. Investors are treading cautiously, recognizing the potential impact that central bank decisions and economic data releases can have on the regional and global financial landscape. As the week unfolds, market participants will closely analyze every development to make informed decisions in this dynamic and ever-changing market environment.

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GBP/USD Drops Below 1.2500 on Dovish BoE Outlook and Trump Tariff Moves

Asian markets mixed as Japan reports weak trade data

Asian markets mixed as Japan reports weak trade data

Asian markets exhibited a varied performance in response to Japan’s disclosure of disappointing trade data for June. The revelation of a nearly 13% decline in imports from the previous year resulted in an unexpected trade surplus for Japan, primarily attributed to the reduction in oil prices. This news had a mixed impact across Asian markets, with share prices rising in Sydney and Hong Kong, but declining in Shanghai, Tokyo, and Seoul. In addition, U.S. futures experienced a slight dip, while oil prices remained relatively stable.

While Asian markets showed divergence, Wall Street continued its bullish trend as positive profit reports from major U.S. companies bolstered investor confidence. However, gains on the Nasdaq were somewhat tempered due to weaker-than-anticipated results from streaming giant Netflix and electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla, triggering caution among Asian investors.

In the U.S., the S&P 500 rose by 0.2%, reaching its highest level in over 15 months, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a gain of 0.3%. One of the standout performers was Elevance Health, which reported robust profits and revenue for the spring, surpassing analysts’ expectations. Similarly, U.S. Bancorp, M&T Bank, and Goldman Sachs posted positive results, contributing to the overall market upswing.

In the commodities market, wheat prices experienced a sharp surge following Russia’s attacks on critical port infrastructure in Ukraine, resulting in the destruction of 60,000 tons of grain. The sudden spike in wheat prices was driven by concerns over potential disruptions to grain exports from Ukraine, raising global food security apprehensions.

As the earnings reporting season gains momentum, analysts are projecting a third consecutive quarter of weaker earnings per share for S&P 500 companies. However, the relatively low expectations provide companies with an opportunity to outperform and surprise the market positively.

In the currency market, the U.S. dollar depreciated slightly against the Japanese yen, while the euro displayed a marginal increase against the dollar. These currency movements reflect ongoing fluctuations in foreign exchange markets, influenced by various economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

Amidst these market dynamics, investors remain vigilant of further trade data releases and earnings reports, which have the potential to significantly influence market sentiment and impact future performance in the Asian markets. Market participants will carefully assess economic indicators and corporate results to gain insights into the trajectory of the global economy and the investment landscape. As uncertainties persist in the aftermath of the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, investors seek to navigate an ever-changing and complex market environment, making informed decisions to manage risks and identify potential opportunities.

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Asian Stock Traders Tread Cautiously Ahead of US Retail Sales Data

Asian Stock Traders Tread Cautiously Ahead of US Retail Sales Data

As Tuesday unfolded, Asian stock traders navigated the markets with caution, displaying a predominantly negative sentiment across the region. One prevailing concern on their minds was China’s economic outlook, which cast shadows of uncertainty on the trading floors. Adding to their apprehension was the imminent release of crucial U.S. data, especially the highly anticipated Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures for June. The impending data release fueled a sense of cautious anticipation, as the market eagerly awaited insights into the health of the world’s largest economy and its potential implications for global markets.

Despite the prevailing market sentiment, Japanese traders managed to defy the regional trend, with their return from a holiday marking a slight upswing in the NIKKEI index, which gained 0.23%. However, other parts of Asia did not share in this mild success. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index experienced a significant decline of 1.85%, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index slipped marginally by 0.06%. South Korea’s KOSPI index also followed the downward trend, losing 0.5%, further adding to the cautious atmosphere.

Interestingly, amid the cautious sentiment, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) took a counterintuitive stance by maintaining its easy-money policy. This decision surprised many, as market participants had anticipated a potential departure from ultra-low interest rates and a toning down of its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. However, the BoJ’s steadfastness underscored its commitment to supporting the Japanese economy amid the prevailing global economic challenges.

Geopolitical developments also grabbed the attention of investors. U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry’s optimistic remarks about future cooperation with China during a dialogue with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, were closely monitored. Any shifts in U.S.-China relations could significantly influence market dynamics and risk sentiment, making this a crucial factor for traders to watch closely in the days ahead.

Additionally, the latest economic indicators from China added to the market’s unease. The disclosure of an annual GDP growth rate of 6.3% fell short of the projected 7.3% and was lower than the previous figure of 4.5%. Despite this, year-on-year Industrial Production showed a more positive side, rising to 4.4% from the previous 3.5%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 2.7%. These mixed economic signals from China further contributed to the cautious mood on the trading floors.

As the trading week progressed, market players eagerly awaited upcoming data releases that could influence the market’s direction. Among these are Japan’s Trade Balance and National Core CPI YoY, which may provide insights into the health of the Japanese economy. However, the most significant event on their radar was the release of U.S. Retail Sales data for June, expected to increase by 0.5% compared to the previous month’s 0.3%. This data release could have substantial implications for USD dynamics and possibly hint at the trajectory of the ongoing rate hike cycle. Consequently, traders kept a close eye on the performance of assets like Gold, equities, and AUDUSD, which could be significantly influenced by these developments in the global financial markets.

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Market Optimism Rises as Asian Shares Rally and Dollar Slumps on Fed’s Potential End to Rate Hikes

Market Optimism Rises as Asian Shares Rally and Dollar Slumps on Fed’s Potential End to Rate Hikes

On Thursday, Asian shares and bonds enjoyed a rally, while the dollar faced significant losses. This shift in the market sentiment was fueled by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation figures, leading to the belief that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle post-pandemic. In contrast, European stocks had a cautious start, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures holding steady, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures showed minimal movement.

Despite China reporting disappointing trade data, indicating a higher-than-anticipated decline in both exports and imports last month, Asian investors maintained their optimism. They wagered that this setback would prompt further stimulus measures. The MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan surged by 1.8%, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index soaring 2.6% and Australia’s resource-heavy shares gaining 1.7%. Japan’s Nikkei also experienced a rise of 1.5%.

Chinese tech giants listed in Hong Kong witnessed a 3.5% rally after Premier Li Qiang encouraged their support in bolstering the slowing economy. This move adds to indications that the sector’s years-long crackdown has come to an end.

The latest U.S. consumer inflation report delivered more positive news than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 3% in June, falling slightly short of the anticipated 3.1% gain. This figure is significantly lower than last year’s 9.1% for the same period. Furthermore, core inflation, which had concerned the Fed, displayed a sharper deceleration than anticipated.

However, futures still suggest a 94% probability of a quarter-point hike from the Fed later this month. Yet, the likelihood of an additional hike in September has decreased to 13.2%, down from the previous day’s 22.3%. Futures now indicate an earlier first rate cut in March next year and anticipate a total of 125 basis points in cuts by 2024.

Following last week’s sell-off, bonds rebounded, resulting in a decline in global yields. The U.S. dollar reached a new 15-month low, easing pressure on emerging market currencies and granting Asian policymakers greater flexibility to implement monetary policy adjustments.

Meanwhile, the euro reached a new 15-month high, and the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar. Oil prices remained close to two-month highs, and gold prices remained stable.

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European Stock Futures Show Slight Increase; U.S. CPI Identified as Crucial Factor

European Stock Futures Show Slight Increase; U.S. CPI Identified as Crucial Factor

A slight uptick in European stock futures has been observed, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report playing a crucial role in the trend. As of 02:00 ET (06:00 GMT), Germany’s DAX futures contract traded 0.4% higher, while France’s CAC 40 futures saw an increase of 0.4%. The FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K., however, remained largely unchanged.

The positivity is believed to stem from the strong close on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained over 300 points, or 0.9%. Investors are hopeful that the upcoming U.S. inflation report for June may influence the Federal Reserve to conclude its interest rate hikes earlier than anticipated.

Federal policymakers are expected to raise interest rates during their next meeting later this month, following a pause last month. However, investors are keenly awaiting the monthly consumer inflation report for insights into potential additional hikes. The headline annual figure for June is projected to have risen by 3.1%, down from May’s 4% rise. Meanwhile, the core rate is predicted to have dropped for a third consecutive month to 5%, from 5.3%.

Concerns about aggressive measures to curb inflation potentially leading to a recession in the world’s largest economy have been a significant factor impacting global markets.

In Europe, German inflation rose 6.4% annually in June, halting a steady decline since the beginning of the year. In contrast, Spanish inflation is expected to rise 1.9% year-on-year in June, falling short of the European Central Bank’s 2% target. This suggests that the central bank should contemplate concluding its rate-hiking cycle.

Oil prices have stabilized due to predictions of increased demand offsetting rising U.S. crude stockpiles. Major oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have announced additional output cuts for August. A weakening U.S. dollar, which is suspected to be a result of the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, supports the oil market.

However, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed an unexpected growth of over 2 million barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles in the week leading up to July 7. Official numbers from the Energy Information Administration are yet to be released.

Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,944.60/oz, and the EUR/USD exchange rate increased slightly, trading 0.2% higher at 1.1031.

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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NZD/USD Holds Below 0.6000 on Dovish RBNZ Outlook, US GDP Data Awaited

NZD/USD Holds Below 0.6000 on Dovish RBNZ Outlook, US GDP Data Awaited

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure near 0.5970 during the Asian session on Wednesday, weighed down by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) dovish outlook. Market participants are now looking ahead to key US data, including the third-quarter GDP report and ADP Employment Change for October, which are due on Wednesday.

Goldman Sachs analysts foresee a potentially aggressive stance from the RBNZ, forecasting rate cuts of 50 basis points in both November and February, with a possibility of a 75 bps cut in November. This dovish stance is expected to weaken the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the short term.
Adding to NZD sentiment, China is reportedly considering issuing an additional 10 trillion yuan (approximately $1.4 trillion) in debt to support its slowing economy. This potential stimulus could benefit the China-proxy Kiwi, as China is a significant trading partner for New Zealand.

Meanwhile, the expectation of a less aggressive rate path from the US Federal Reserve supports the US Dollar. Markets have nearly priced in a 98.4% probability of a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed in November. However, recent US economic data presents a mixed picture; the September JOLTS report showed job openings at their lowest level in over three years, while the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for October reached a nine-month high, reflecting optimism in the labor market.

With US Q3 GDP and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data in focus, traders will monitor these releases for further insights into the US economic trajectory and potential impacts on the NZD/USD pair.

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Australian Dollar Steady Amid RBA’s Restrictive Policy Outlook

Australian Dollar Declines Amid Market Caution

Australian Dollar Declines Amid Market Caution

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edged lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, though the AUD/USD pair experienced minor gains as the USD softened slightly with a modest dip in US Treasury yields. The AUD might find some support from the hawkish tone surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted the country’s robust labor participation rate earlier this week and emphasized that while the RBA bases decisions on data, it is not excessively data-dependent.

The USD has strengthened as markets closely watch the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate trajectory, with expectations rising that the Fed may be less aggressive in cutting rates than initially anticipated. Additionally, the USD is buoyed by speculation about former President Donald Trump’s potential second term in the upcoming US presidential election. Traders are likely to keep an eye on Friday’s US Durable Goods Orders and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reports.

During an event in Las Vegas on Thursday, Republican nominee Donald Trump used his well-known catchphrase, pledging to “build an economy that lifts up all Americans,” with a particular focus on supporting minority communities, as reported by Reuters.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar Down Ahead of US Presidential Election

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in November, with little expectation of a 50-basis-point reduction. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris drew support from high-profile figures, including Bruce Springsteen and former President Barack Obama, at a rally in Georgia, a critical battleground state.

Recent S&P Global data shows positive US economic momentum. The October Composite PMI rose to 54.3 from 54.0, while the Services PMI beat expectations at 55.3, and Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.8. In Australia, Judo Bank’s Composite PMI slightly rose to 49.8 in October, showing continued contraction in private sector output. Services PMI inched up to 50.6, while the Manufacturing PMI fell further to 46.6.

The Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday described economic activity as “little changed,” a shift from August’s report, which indicated growth in some districts. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari both commented on stable economic conditions, with Kashkari suggesting that any rate cuts will be gradual.

In China, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reduced both the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates, which could boost demand for Australian exports. Additionally, National Australia Bank has moved forward its RBA rate cut projection to February 2025, expecting gradual reductions to reach 3.10% by early 2026.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Hovering Near Two-Month Low

The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6640, near a two-month low. Technical indicators reveal a short-term bearish trend, with the pair staying below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) under 50, signaling bearish sentiment.

The pair is testing support at 0.6614, with a significant support level at the psychological 0.6600 mark. On the upside, resistance is expected at the nine-day EMA of 0.6672, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6724, with a break above potentially leading toward the 0.6800 level.

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US Dollar Stabilizes After Recent Losses

US Dollar Holds Steady Amid Correction, Market Focus Shifts to Key Mid-Tier Data

US Dollar Holds Steady Amid Correction, Market Focus Shifts to Key Mid-Tier Data

The US Dollar (USD) maintains resilience against major counterparts early Friday after losing momentum on Thursday. European trading hours will center on Germany’s IFO business sentiment surveys, while later in the day, US data releases, including September Durable Goods Orders and the final revision of October’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, are expected. Additionally, Canada’s September Retail Sales report will provide insights into consumer spending trends.

Improving risk sentiment hindered the USD’s weekly rally extension on Thursday. As Wall Street’s main indexes closed higher, the USD Index dipped by 0.4%, marking its largest one-day drop in a month. In early European trading Friday, the USD Index stabilizes above 104.00, with US stock index futures edging higher.

The GBP/USD pair recovered over 0.4% on Thursday, erasing previous losses and consolidating near 1.2970, just shy of testing the key 1.3000 level. Meanwhile, despite broader USD softness, USD/CAD posted modest gains on Thursday. The Canadian Dollar struggled for traction following the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) recent decision to cut its policy rate by 50 basis points, keeping the pair near 1.3850 in early Friday trading.

The USD/JPY pair corrected after a three-day rally, influenced by optimism surrounding the US economic outlook, as noted by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda. Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reiterated the importance of stable currency moves aligned with fundamentals, as Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at a softer annual rate of 1.8% in October compared to 2.1% in September.
Gold gained traction on Thursday, appreciating 0.75% as US Treasury bond yields declined, providing support for the XAU/USD pair, which remains relatively quiet around $2,750 in early European trading. Investors will continue to monitor USD developments and risk sentiment amid Friday’s mid-tier data releases for additional directional cues.

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Australian Dollar Faces Downward Pressure Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

Australian Dollar Faces Downward Pressure Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

Australian Dollar Faces Downward Pressure Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

The Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled to maintain its previous gains on Wednesday, as the AUD/USD pair came under pressure from a stronger US Dollar (USD) driven by rising US Treasury yields. The growing risk aversion in markets, partly fueled by the increasing odds of Donald Trump winning the presidency, has added selling pressure on US Treasury bonds, thereby boosting the USD.

However, the downside for the AUD may be limited due to hawkish expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Positive employment data has strengthened the case for the RBA to maintain a firm stance on interest rates. Additionally, China’s recent rate cuts have provided further support for the Aussie, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

The US Dollar’s gains have been reinforced by signs of economic resilience and lingering concerns about inflation, which have reduced the likelihood of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 91% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, with no expectations for a larger 50-basis-point reduction.

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Australian Labor Market Surprises with Strong Job Growth

Australian Labor Market Surprises Positively – Commerzbank

Australian Labor Market Surprises Positively – Commerzbank

Australia’s employment report delivered stronger-than-expected results this morning, joining the list of countries with unexpectedly robust labor data, notes Commerzbank’s FX analyst, Michael Pfister.

AUD Supported Amid Strong Job Creation

“Job creation reached 64.1k, slightly outpacing August’s already strong figure, with most gains driven by full-time positions. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was revised down slightly and remains at 4.1%, close to historic lows and well below the decade average. This positive news has significantly boosted the Australian dollar today.”

RBA to Watch Inflation Before Acting on Rates

“Future decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will also hinge on third-quarter inflation data, set to be released in two weeks. However, given the labor market’s continued strength and the upward trend in recent months, there seems little immediate reason for the RBA to consider cutting rates in early November.”

Outlook for the Australian Dollar

“The RBA is expected to maintain its current policy at least until early next year, keeping the Australian dollar supported in the near term. However, Australia’s economic fate remains closely tied to China’s performance. If Chinese economic data weakens, the Australian dollar could face renewed pressure.”

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Global Investors in the Dark on China as Wall Street Surges

Global Investors Left in the Dark on China as Wall Street Surges

Global Investors Left in the Dark on China as Wall Street Surges

Global investors are struggling to navigate China’s economic uncertainties after Beijing’s weekend stimulus update underwhelmed markets. While China remains in a fog, Wall Street powered ahead with the S&P 500 and Dow extending their rally, setting the stage for Tokyo to join in when its mafrkets reopen after a three-day holiday.

Tech stocks, particularly in the chip sector, surged despite the U.S. Treasury market being closed for Columbus Day. Market sentiment was buoyed by excitement around third-quarter earnings, with financial giants like JP Morgan and Wells Fargo kicking things off last Friday. Big names like Citi, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs are set to release their earnings on Tuesday, keeping expectations high for more impressive financial results.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar reached its highest level since mid-August, bolstered by safe-haven demand triggered by China’s “Joint Sword 2024B” military drills near Taiwan, which the U.S. labeled as destabilizing. The greenback also gained ground against the yuan as investors were disappointed by China’s lackluster stimulus measures. Instead of bold fiscal action, Beijing reshuffled its economic approach, which failed to inspire confidence.

Unsurprisingly, the yuan fell to 7.09 per dollar, its lowest since mid-September, and has dropped roughly 1% since China’s central bank implemented aggressive stimulus in late September. Meanwhile, gold and oil prices dipped, with markets betting on a modest 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, reflecting confidence in the U.S. economy’s soft-landing scenario. This narrative is fueling Wall Street’s record-breaking momentum.

U.S. rate futures are now showing an 87% likelihood of a 25-bps cut in November, with only a 13% chance of a pause, indicating that traders expect a gradual but steady easing cycle from the Fed.

The dollar’s rise, nearing the 150 yen mark, suggests that Tokyo’s Nikkei index could build on its recent highs, adding to its remarkable 27% surge since early August. However, foreign exchange traders are wary that this upward momentum could prompt the Bank of Japan to consider a Q4 rate hike, especially after upcoming elections. Such a move could create significant volatility in global markets, shaking currency values and stock prices alike.

In contrast, Chinese markets are under pressure. U.S.-listed Chinese stocks suffered losses on Monday as investors, worried about the potential for a second Trump presidency, began reducing their exposure. The reasoning is that no major U.S. allocator wants to increase their stakes in Chinese assets ahead of the possibility of renewed tariffs and tensions with a Trump administration.

China’s economic woes are growing as demand wanes and deflation looms. Monday’s data revealed that export growth slowed to just 2.4% in September, a sharp drop from August. This signals that exporters may have rushed to ship goods earlier to avoid potential Western tariffs. As Beijing faces growing pressures, especially with the U.S. election on the horizon, its stimulus efforts, while a step in the right direction, seem insufficient to resolve its deeper economic challenges.

The country’s property market crisis remains a significant concern. The sheer volume of unsold housing is staggering—unfinished presold units are eight times the annual completion rate, roughly 60 million units. Clearing this backlog could take years, if not decades, and without substantial reforms and financial injections, any recovery in China’s housing market appears distant. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the property crisis, combined with slowing manufacturing and export sectors, could exacerbate China’s economic fragility.

Investors are closely watching Beijing for more decisive action, but without stronger measures, the current rally in global markets could fade as quickly as it began.

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US CPI Inflation Data Could Impact Fed Rate Outlook | Key Market Insights

US CPI Inflation Data Could Shape Market Expectations for Fed Rate Decisions

US CPI Inflation Data Could Shape Market Expectations for Fed Rate Decisions

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the eagerly awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for September on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.

The U.S. Dollar (USD) faces potential volatility, as the report could play a significant role in shaping the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate policy for the remainder of the year.

What to Expect in the Upcoming CPI Data?

Inflation in the U.S., as measured by the CPI, is expected to have risen by 2.3% year-over-year in September, down from the 2.5% increase recorded in August. Meanwhile, core CPI inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—is forecast to remain steady at 3.2% for the same period.

On a monthly basis, both the CPI and core CPI are anticipated to see moderate increases of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

Previewing the September report, analysts from TD Securities stated, “Our forecasts suggest that core inflation lost some momentum, showing a 0.24% month-over-month gain, down from the 0.28% recorded in August.” They added, “Headline inflation likely saw a meaningful deceleration, as energy prices continued to provide relief. Core goods prices likely contributed to inflation for the first time in seven months, while housing inflation probably eased, helping to pull down core services inflation.”

Fed Outlook on Interest Rates

Regarding the Fed’s outlook, Governor Adriana Kugler recently indicated she would support additional rate cuts if inflation continues to ease as projected. However, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem took a more cautious stance, warning that easing policy too aggressively could harm the Fed’s credibility and future economic stability. He argued that “the risks of reducing rates too soon outweigh those of keeping rates higher for longer, especially given the potential threat of persistent inflation.”

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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