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GBP/USD Ascends Towards 1.2700 Prior

GBP/USD Remains Below 1.2700 Before Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony

GBP/USD Remains Below 1.2700 Before Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony

In the early Asian trading session on Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair was observed holding below the significant 1.2700 mark, indicating a slight downtick influenced by a resurgence in the US Dollar (USD). This currency movement sets the stage for a day filled with key economic events, including the UK S&P Global Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the eagerly awaited testimony of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The pair was trading near 1.2695, reflecting a modest 0.08% decline from the previous day.

A recent statement by Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic has further stirred market speculation. On Monday, Bostic expressed his expectation of an initial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the third quarter of this year, followed by a pause to assess the impact of this policy change on the US economy. Market participants, guided by the CME FedWatch Tool, are currently pricing in a meager 3.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March.

Adding to the complexity of the market dynamics was Tuesday’s report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM survey revealed that the US Services PMI dropped to 52.6 in February, down from 53.4 in January, falling short of market expectations set at 53.0. This decline in the PMI points towards a slower expansion in the services sector, a critical component of the US economy.

In the UK, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s speech at the Spring Budget announcement drew attention. Hunt unveiled a significant cut in national insurance by 2p, signaling a potential shift in fiscal policy. Alongside this development, investors are also anticipating the Bank of England’s (BoE) move towards interest rate cuts by August, aiming to bring inflation back to the 2% target, followed by a predicted increase.

A major focal point for the day is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress. This event is closely monitored by investors, as Powell’s remarks could provide insights into the Fed’s future monetary policy direction. Adding to the week’s significance is the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday, with expectations of an addition of 200,000 jobs in February. These events are crucial for traders who are keenly watching the GBP/USD pair, looking for trading opportunities influenced by these economic indicators and policy decisions.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Gains Momentum in the Mid-1.0800 Range Due to a Weakening US Dollar

EUR/USD Gains Momentum in the Mid-1.0800 Range Due to a Weakening US Dollar

As the new week commences, the EUR/USD currency pair exhibits a positive trajectory in the early trading hours of Monday in Asia. This uptrend in one of the major currency pairs is primarily underpinned by a diminishing strength of the US Dollar (USD). A pivotal moment for investors this week will be the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday, where it is widely anticipated that interest rates will remain unaltered. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading at a value of 1.0845, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% for the day.

This recent development in the EUR/USD pair’s performance is happening against a backdrop where several policymakers from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have expressed that future decisions on interest rate cuts will be heavily influenced by emerging economic data. Prominent figures such as Boston Fed President Susan Collins and New York’s John Williams have hinted that the first rate reduction could be feasible later in the year. In a similar vein, Raphael Bostic from the Atlanta Fed anticipates a shift towards an easing policy by this summer.

Adding to the complexity of the market dynamics is the latest US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which declined to 47.8 in February, falling from its previous mark of 49.1 and not meeting the market expectations. This data, released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), also highlighted a decrease in the New Orders Index to 49.2, indicating a contraction. Moreover, the Production Index was recorded at 48.4, with the Employment Index at a lower 45.9.

On the European front, the ECB is cautiously waiting for more indicators, particularly regarding the relaxation of wage pressures, before making any significant adjustments to its monetary policy stance. It is highly likely that the ECB will maintain the current interest rates in its upcoming March meeting. Market participants are keenly awaiting the post-meeting press conference for insights into future policy directions. Any hawkish comments from the central bank could potentially bolster the Euro (EUR) and create a challenging environment for the EUR/USD pair.

Looking ahead, the focus will shift to the Eurozone Services PMI, due for release on Tuesday, followed by the German Trade data and Eurozone Retail Sales on Wednesday. If these datasets surpass expectations, they could mitigate concerns about a possible recession in the Eurozone. The spotlight will then turn to the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday, which precedes the eagerly awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) announcement. These events collectively hold significant potential to influence the trajectory of the EUR/USD pair in the week ahead.

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GBP/USD Modestly Recovers

GBP/USD Modestly Recovers Near 1.2630, Limited Upside Potential

GBP/USD Modestly Recovers Near 1.2630, Limited Upside Potential

During the Asian trading session on Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair witnessed a revival of buying interest, breaking a two-day losing streak that had led it to a one-week low in the region of 1.2615-1.2610 just a day earlier. The pair’s spot prices are currently hovering around the 1.2630-1.2635 zone. This change in momentum is largely attributed to the dynamics surrounding the US Dollar (USD).

The market’s attention was particularly drawn to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data released on Thursday. The report indicated that annual inflation in January reached its lowest point in three years, fueling speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This speculation, however, didn’t provide much support to the USD Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of other major currencies. The DXY struggled to build on its recent recovery from a critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), partly due to the prevailing risk-on market sentiment. This sentiment tends to reduce the appeal of the USD as a safe-haven asset, thereby offering some support to the GBP/USD pair.

On the British side, the Pound (GBP) is finding support from the Bank of England (BoE) policymakers’ efforts to counter market expectations for imminent interest rate cuts. This stance has lent a positive tone to the GBP/USD pair. However, there is a growing consensus that the Fed might delay any interest rate reductions until their June policy meeting, a view reinforced by hawkish comments from several Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials. This outlook has helped sustain high US Treasury bond yields, which could provide a boost to the USD and potentially restrain bullish traders in the GBP/USD market.

Investors are now focusing on the upcoming release of the final UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and a scheduled speech by BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill for fresh impetus. Additionally, the early North American session will bring attention to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and comments from Fed officials. These events, along with US bond yield movements and broader risk sentiment, are expected to influence the USD and create short-term trading opportunities in the GBP/USD pair.

Despite the current uptick, the GBP/USD pair appears set to close the week with losses, particularly in anticipation of significant US economic data releases scheduled for the start of the new month.

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EUR/USD Falls Amid Risk-Aversion

EUR/USD Falls Amid Risk-Aversion Before Eurozone, US Data; Trades Near 1.0840

EUR/USD Falls Amid Risk-Aversion Before Eurozone, US Data; Trades Near 1.0840

The Euro/US Dollar exchange rate, known as EUR/USD, has seen a decrease, reaching nearly 1.0840 in the Asian market on Wednesday. This drop is mainly because traders are being very careful due to some important economic reports that are expected to be released soon. These reports include the Euro Zone Economic Sentiment Indicator for February and the preliminary data on the United States’ economic growth for the last quarter (Q4) of the year.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the US dollar against other major currencies, is trying to rise due to the cautious mood in the market. However, the lower interest rates offered on US government bonds (also known as Treasury yields) might be causing the US dollar to face some challenges. At the moment, the DXY has improved slightly to about 103.90, with the interest rates for 2-year and 10-year US government bonds at 4.68% and 4.29% respectively.

Recently, there was a small increase of 0.1% in the US Housing Price Index, which was less than the expected 0.3% and the previous 0.4%. Also, the orders for long-lasting goods made in the US fell by 6.1%, which was more than the anticipated 4.5% drop. According to predictions by the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of the US Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March are now only 1%. However, there’s a 21% chance of a rate cut in May and almost a 50% chance in June.

On the other side, the Euro might see some positive effects from recent statements by the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde. She mentioned that even though inflation is getting closer to the ECB’s target, the bank plans to keep its current policies for some time.

In Germany, a survey about consumer confidence for March showed a result of -29, which was in line with expectations and slightly better than February’s -29.6. Later this week, more data from Germany, including retail sales and consumer price inflation, will provide further insights into the economic situation.

Experts at Commerzbank are paying close attention to the inflation data coming out on Friday, but they don’t see any clear signs that the Euro will weaken. On the other hand, Kit Juckes, a top strategist at Société Générale, believes that whether the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank reduces interest rates first or more aggressively will be crucial in deciding the direction of the EUR/USD exchange rate this year.

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EUR/GBP Nears 0.8540 Before

EUR/GBP Nears 0.8540 Before ECB’s Lagarde Speech

EUR/GBP Nears 0.8540 Before ECB’s Lagarde Speech

The EUR/GBP currency pair witnessed a halt in its three-day downtrend, observing a modest rise to approach 0.8540 during Monday’s Asian trading session. This upward movement is primarily attributed to the Euro (EUR) gaining strength following hawkish remarks from members of the European Central Bank (ECB). In addition, the ECB’s Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts for January revealed a cautious approach by policymakers towards easing monetary policy. The consensus among them highlighted that it was too early to consider discussions on rate reductions.

Traders are now keenly awaiting the speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, scheduled for later on Monday, for further cues on the ECB’s monetary policy direction.

Recent comments from various ECB officials have contributed to shaping the market sentiment. For instance, ECB member Yannis Stournaras projected a potential rate cut in June, dismissing any likelihood of such action in March. Conversely, Joachim Nagel, another ECB policymaker, expressed confidence in controlling inflation, stressing the need for a data-driven approach to policy decisions rather than emulating other central banks.

On the UK front, the decline in consumer confidence for February has exerted downward pressure on the British Pound (GBP), thereby providing support to the EUR/GBP pair. The GfK Consumer Confidence index for the UK, released on Friday, registered a disappointing -21, falling short of market expectations of -18 and deteriorating from the previous -19. This indicates a weakening in consumer confidence regarding the UK’s economic activity for the month of February.

Analysts at MUFG Bank have observed that recent PMI data from the UK suggests an end to the technical recession experienced in the latter half of the previous year. They anticipate that the improvement in global risk sentiment will likely lead the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt a wait-and-see approach, in line with other central banks. There is also speculation about the UK inflation rate hitting the 2% target by April.

Adding to the array of economic speeches, Huw Pill, the Chief Economist at the Bank of England, is also slated to address the public on Monday. His insights will be closely monitored for indications of the BoE’s future monetary policy actions and their potential impact on the GBP. As the market navigates through these developments, the EUR/GBP pair’s performance remains a key focus, reflecting broader economic trends and monetary policy expectations in Europe and the UK.

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EUR/USD Stabilizes Near

EUR/USD Stabilizes Near 1.0820 After PMI-Driven Volatile Session

EUR/USD Stabilizes Near 1.0820 After PMI-Driven Volatile Session

The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited consolidation patterns following a tumultuous trading session triggered by the release of significant Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from both Europe and the United States on Thursday. During the early hours of Friday’s Asian trading session, the Euro (EUR) demonstrated stability, hovering around the 1.0820 mark, as investors evaluated the implications of mixed data regarding private sector business activities within the European Union (EU).

The day’s trading dynamics were heavily influenced by the latest PMI figures from the Eurozone and Germany, revealing a complex economic landscape. February’s PMI data showed a divergence in performance between the services and manufacturing sectors. While the preliminary Services PMIs for both the Eurozone and Germany indicated an upward trend, the Manufacturing PMIs did not meet market expectations, reflecting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector.

Amidst this backdrop, the European Central Bank (ECB) released its Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts for January, showcasing a cautious stance among policymakers. The minutes revealed a consensus against discussing rate cuts at the current juncture, underlining the need for prudence in monetary policy adjustments. ECB officials acknowledged some positive developments in inflation trends, adopting a more optimistic outlook compared to previous years. However, they were unanimous in their view that potential downward revisions in March’s inflation projections would not automatically warrant rate cuts.

Across the Atlantic, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained firm, trading near 103.90. This strength was partly underpinned by the rising yields of US Treasury bonds, which stood at 4.71% for the 2-year bonds and 4.33% for the 10-year bonds at the time of writing. Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) found support following the release of encouraging labor market data from the United States.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that weekly Initial Jobless Claims had fallen to 201K for the week ending on February 16, significantly below the market forecast of 218K and the previous figure of 213K. This data suggests a robust labor market, which could have implications for the broader economy.

Regarding PMI data, the S&P Global US Services PMI recorded a figure of 51.3 in February, slightly below expectations of 52.0 and the previous month’s 52.5. Conversely, the Manufacturing PMI showed an improvement, reaching 51.5, which exceeded the anticipated 50.5 and the prior figure of 50.7. The US Composite PMI, however, declined to 51.4 in February from 52.0 in the previous month.

Further bolstering the US Dollar’s position were hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. They emphasized the unlikelihood of interest rate cuts in the near term, suggesting a continued focus on controlling inflation and supporting economic stability. This stance may provide additional strength to the USD in the international currency markets.

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Focus Shifts to FOMC Minutes

GBP/USD Remains Steady Above 1.2600, Focus Shifts to FOMC Minutes

GBP/USD Remains Steady Above 1.2600, Focus Shifts to FOMC Minutes

During the early hours of Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair saw a modest rise, climbing above the 1.2600 mark. This upward movement is largely attributed to positive remarks from Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), which provided a boost to the Pound Sterling (GBP). At present, the major currency pair is trading around 1.2625, showing no significant change for the day.

The shift in investor sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) anticipated interest rate cuts has been a key factor influencing the pair’s dynamics. This change in outlook followed the release of the U.S. January Producer Price Index (PPI) data last week, which signaled persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy. Consequently, market participants are now aligning their expectations to forecast the Fed’s initial rate cuts to occur between May and June during the monetary policy meeting. The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) minutes from January’s policy meeting is eagerly awaited, as it is expected to shed light on the Fed’s future interest rate trajectory.

Tuesday’s testimony by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey on inflation and the economic outlook played a significant role in the Pound’s strength. Governor Bailey expressed his comfort with the market’s projections of interest rate cuts in 2023, citing signs of recovery in the British economy after its plunge into a recession in late 2023. He further noted that inflation does not necessarily have to fall below the 2% target before the initiation of rate cuts, suggesting the possibility of a rate decrease within the year, though without specifying an exact timeline.

As the week progresses, the focus will shift to the release of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. These minutes are anticipated to provide deeper insights into the Fed policymakers’ hesitancy to commence policy easing in the first quarter of 2024. Additionally, the upcoming release of the preliminary U.S. S&P Global PMI for February on Thursday is another significant event on the economic calendar. These developments are expected to offer clearer directional cues for the GBP/USD currency pair.

Overall, the GBP/USD pair’s trajectory is being shaped by a combination of optimistic domestic factors from the UK and broader economic indicators from the US. The upcoming economic releases and policy minutes will be crucial in determining the near-term movement of this currency pair, as traders and investors alike gauge the economic health and policy stances of both the UK and the US.

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Steady Stock Futures Ahead of Inflation Report

Steady Stock Futures Ahead of Inflation Report

Stock futures exhibited little change as investors geared up for the release of the August producer price index, a key indicator of wholesale inflation. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by a mere 11 points, equivalent to a 0.03% gain. S&P 500 futures saw a slightly stronger uptick of 0.09%, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched 0.1% higher.

The prior trading day had been mixed, with the Dow, comprising 30 major stocks, declining for the second consecutive day, resulting in a 0.2% drop primarily due to 3M’s performance. On the other hand, the Nasdaq Composite closed with nearly a 0.3% gain, and the S&P 500 added 0.1%.

A significant event on traders’ radar was the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which had a notable impact on market sentiment. The core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, registered a 0.3% increase from the previous month and a 4.3% rise compared to last year. These figures slightly exceeded expectations, as economists had projected a 0.2% increase month-over-month and a 4.3% year-over-year rise. Headline inflation, which includes all items, surged by 0.6% on a monthly basis and 3.7% on a yearly basis, in line with market expectations.

Despite the CPI data, it’s unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve’s approach at its upcoming policy meeting, scheduled to commence on September 19. Fed funds futures pricing data from Wednesday indicated a 97% probability that interest rates would remain unchanged next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Nevertheless, even if the central bank opts to keep rates steady this time, market volatility is expected to persist in the coming months. According to Fed funds futures pricing data, there’s approximately a 48% chance that rates will increase at the November meeting. Alex McGrath, Chief Investment Officer at NorthEnd Private Wealth, noted, “We believe volatility will be with us through year-end as the risk-on assets that dragged the market higher through 2023 will begin to look expensive in the face of elevated yields.”

Looking ahead, another critical inflation metric, the August Producer Price Index (PPI), is scheduled for release on Thursday. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate a 0.4% increase for August, following a surprising 0.3% rise in wholesale prices in July. Additionally, retail sales data is expected before the market opens.

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Mixed Sentiment Ahead of US CPI Keeps Asian Stock Market Trading Sideways

Mixed Sentiment Ahead of US CPI Keeps Asian Stock Market Trading Sideways

Asian stock markets are in a bit of a mixed situation right now, and people are waiting for some important information about the cost of things in the US, called the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The US Dollar is getting a bit more stable, not going up or down as much as before, and it’s around 104.55.

In China, their main stock index, the Shanghai Composite, has gone up a little bit, about 0.10%, to 3,145 points. Another index in China, called the Shenzhen Component, has gone up a bit more, by about 0.29%, to 10,411. But in South Korea, their stock market, known as the Kospi, has gone down a bit, about 0.50%. On the other hand, Japan’s stock market, the Nikkei, is doing better, going up by about 0.61%.

In China, the cost of things for people (we call it the Consumer Price Index or CPI) has gone up a tiny bit in August, by 0.1%. Before that, it was going down by 0.3%. This is a small sign that the economy might be getting more stable. The price of things for the month also went up as expected, by 0.3%.

In Japan, the Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, thinks that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will do things to make sure prices go up, and they will work closely with the government to do that. This is because the interest rates in Japan have gone up a lot, and people think the BOJ might change the rules about interest rates.

The head of the BOJ, Kazuo Ueda, has said that by the end of the year, they will have enough information to decide if they should keep the interest rates low or not. This makes things interesting for Japan’s money policy.

Next, everyone will be watching the US to see how much prices went up in August, which will be out on Wednesday. People expect that prices in the US went up by 0.5%, and a core number that is important for interest rates will stay at 0.2%. This tells us if the US might change their interest rates in the future. 

Also, we will look at China’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers on Friday. These numbers are important because they show if China’s economy is healthy or not and if it will affect the world. So, people who invest in the stock market need to be careful and watch what happens in these markets because things might change quickly.

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Chinese Property Stocks Fail to Ease Growth Concerns, Bears Control Asian Stock Market

Chinese Property Stocks Fail to Ease Growth Concerns, Bears Control Asian Stock Market

The Asian stock market is not doing so well today. Even though China’s property stocks are getting better, the overall situation is not great. People who trade stocks are being careful because they saw big losses yesterday. They are also waiting for a report called the US ISM Services PMI.

A thing called the MSCI’s Index of Asia-Pacific shares (excluding Japan) has gone down by almost 1%. But in Japan, something called the Nikkei 225 has gone up by 0.75% in the morning.

Yesterday, a number for China’s Caixin Services PMI in August was not so good. It was 51.8, which is lower than the 54.1 from before. This made people worry about China’s economy. There is also a problem between the US and China, and the US Commerce Secretary talked about it. She said that the US will keep taxes on things from China until they look at it again in four years.

Some good things about the US have made the stock market not feel great. There was a report about US Factory Orders, and it was not good. People thought it would be -0.1%, but it was -2.1% for July. But if you don’t count some things, it went up by 0.8%. They also sent out more stuff, and they have more stuff in their stores now. Some people from the US Federal Reserve also talked about money stuff. One person said they want to be careful with money, and another person said they don’t want to make money cheaper.

Even though some news from China said they might help the real estate business, the stock market in China is not doing well. It’s like what’s happening in the US stock market and something called the S&P 500 Futures. The US Dollar is also strong, which means it’s worth a lot compared to other money. Gold and oil prices are not changing much. In New Zealand, Hong Kong, and India, stocks are not doing well either.

In Australia, the numbers looked better than people thought, but it didn’t make the stock market better. It went down by 0.80%.

In the future, what happens in the stock market will depend on what happens in China’s economy and how the US does. We need to watch carefully to see what will happen next.

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China concerns cause European shares to hit one-week low; attention now turns to PMIs

China concerns cause European shares to hit one-week low; attention now turns to PMIs

European stock markets took a bit of a tumble on Tuesday, dropping to their lowest point in a whole week. This was mostly because folks were getting worried about China’s economy not doing so great. See, if China’s economy isn’t doing well, it can affect the global economy, and that makes investors nervous. They’re afraid that a slow recovery in China might mean tough times for everyone else too.

One of the main stock market indicators in Europe, called the STOXX 600, went down by 0.6% on Tuesday. It was the fifth day in a row that it went down. The sectors in Europe that are closely connected to China, like the ones dealing with fancy stuff and building materials, were the ones taking the biggest hits. That’s because new data showed that China’s service industry, which includes things like restaurants and hotels, grew at a slower pace in August, the slowest it has been in eight months.

Later in the day, we were waiting for some news about how businesses in Europe were doing, and it didn’t look great. They were expected to confirm that business activity had actually gone down in August. This news caused some big companies like Roche to see their stock prices drop by 1.1%. Another bank called Credit Agricole saw a drop of 3.0% because Goldman Sachs said it was a good idea to sell their stock. Commerzbank, another bank in Germany, also had a tough time with a 3.3% drop because Barclays said it was a bit heavy on their stock, giving it an “underweight” rating.

So, in simple terms, European shares went down because people were worried about China’s economy, and they’re also keeping a close eye on what the European Central Bank might do with interest rates. Some big companies got hit too because of not-so-great business news. It’s a bit like a rollercoaster ride for the stock market right now, with ups and downs that can make investors feel a bit queasy.

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Mixed Performance in Asian Stock Markets Ahead of Key US PCE Data

Mixed Performance in Asian Stock Markets Ahead of Key US PCE Data

Asian stock markets are giving mixed results on Thursday as investors eagerly wait for the PCE Price Index. This index is an important way to measure how prices for things are going up, and the Federal Reserve likes to watch it. The index is coming out before the big Nonfarm Payrolls report for August. Right now, China’s Shanghai stock index has gone down by 0.60% to 3,117 points, the Shenzhen index has gone down by 0.44% to 10,416 points, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has gone down by 2.02% to 18,401 points, South Korea’s Kospi index has gone down by 0.43%, and Japan’s Nikkei index has gone up by 0.77%.

In China, people are worried because factories and services aren’t doing as well this month. This might make the government do things to help the economy, like giving it a boost. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) got a little better in August, but it’s still not as good as what people thought it would be. The NBS Services PMI also went down a bit. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said they’re going to give more money to private companies to help the private economy grow.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) said they want to wait longer before they start doing things to control the money supply. Retail Sales in Japan went up by 6.8% in July compared to last year, which is better than what people expected. But the production of things in factories, called Industrial Production, went down by 2.0% in July.

Later on Thursday, we’ll find out how much the economy of India grew in the first quarter of the year. People expect it to have grown by 7.7%, which is better than before.

Looking forward, people will pay attention to the US Core PCE Price Index, how many people are asking for jobless help, and the Chicago PMI later in the day. On Friday, people will watch how well factories are doing in China in August and how many jobs the US added.

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Dow Futures Up, Market Rally Continues; Jobs Data in Focus

Dow Futures Up, Market Rally Continues; Jobs Data in Focus

The positive momentum in Dow Jones futures ahead of Tuesday’s opening was mirrored by upward movement in S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures during overnight trading, indicating a buoyant start to the trading session.

This week, the ongoing vigor of the market rally remains a focal point as investors turn their attention towards the eagerly awaited Friday jobs report, a pivotal event in the closing week of August. The implications of this report are far-reaching, potentially influencing expectations around interest rate shifts. A strong report wouldn’t necessarily translate to an imminent rate hike, while a less robust report, with payroll gains hovering around 100,000, could potentially take the possibility of a rate hike off the table. Simultaneously, market watchers are gearing up for the release of the Commerce Department’s data on personal income and spending for July, an influential indicator of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve, scheduled for Thursday.

In terms of earnings, Salesforce.com (CRM), a key player within the Dow Jones, is poised to disclose its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday. Notably, this leaves just Nike (NKE) and Walgreens (WBA) as the remaining components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average yet to announce their earnings reports.

In addition, several software companies are slated to release their earnings, including MongoDB (MDB), Nutanix (NTNX), Samsara (IOT), as well as security software entities such as CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Okta (OKTA).

Reflecting on the previous day’s market performance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average showcased a commendable 0.6% increase, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite demonstrated gains of 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, indicating broad-based market positivity.

Major players in the technology sector exhibited noteworthy movement, with electric vehicle behemoth Tesla (TSLA) recording a modest 0.1% increase on Monday. Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) experienced a substantial rebound of 1.8%, reflecting renewed investor confidence. Meanwhile, prominent tech giants on the Dow Jones index, Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), both registered positive strides. Apple’s shares rose by 0.9%, and Microsoft’s shares climbed by 0.2%.

Further highlighting influential market leaders, Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META) made noteworthy gains, with GOOGL’s stock increasing by 0.9% and Meta’s shares surging by 1.7%.

Among the stocks garnering attention within the ongoing market correction are Baker Hughes (BKR), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Fastly (FSLY), and Tidewater (TDW), alongside Dow Jones stalwarts IBM (IBM), Merck (MRK), and Visa (V), identified as pivotal stocks to watch during this period of market flux.

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Nvidia’s AI Success to Revive Nasdaq 100 After Challenging August

Nvidia’s AI Success to Revive Nasdaq 100 After Challenging August

Nvidia’s impressive achievements in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) are having a positive impact on the performance of stocks within the Nasdaq 100 index. Despite a rather challenging month of August, the dynamics changed dramatically thanks to Nvidia’s strong financial results. The company managed to exceed its own ambitious sales projections, and the driving force behind this success was the robust demand for AI-related products and services. Interestingly, this favorable development also had a ripple effect, benefiting other tech giants such as Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom. Consequently, the future outlook for the Nasdaq 100 has become considerably brighter as a result of Nvidia’s accomplishments in the AI realm.

At the onset of August, concerns were mounting due to a perceived slump in the tech sector’s performance. However, Nvidia’s latest financial results have effectively dispelled these apprehensions and reinforced the belief that investing in AI is indeed a prudent choice. This affirmation carries significant weight as it aligns with the sentiment that investors have held towards tech stocks throughout the year.

Nvidia’s announcement that they are anticipating approximately $16 billion in revenue over the next three months comes as a surprise, especially when contrasted with the market experts’ initial estimate of around $12.5 billion. Furthermore, the company is actively pursuing a stock buyback initiative worth $25 billion, which signals a strong sense of confidence in their own prospects.

Despite a recent 4% decline in value, the Nasdaq 100 index is currently trading at roughly 24 times its projected earnings for the upcoming year. Although this figure has decreased from the 27 times multiple observed in July, it remains notably higher than the historical average of 21 times over the last decade. This suggests that investors continue to place a premium on the tech sector’s growth potential.

In a broader context, the encouraging performance of software companies such as Autodesk, Snowflake, and Splunk serves as additional evidence of the tech industry’s resilience and prosperity. Their positive post-market reports are indicative of a larger trend within the sector.

In conclusion, Nvidia’s accomplishments in the AI domain have not only rejuvenated the Nasdaq 100 index after a sluggish August but also solidified the notion that AI-focused investments hold substantial promise. The surge in Nvidia’s sales, alongside the impressive performance of other software giants, underlines the enduring strength of the tech industry, which is certainly a cause for optimism in the market.

 

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XAG/USD Vulnerable, Aiming for $22.20-$22.10 Retest

XAG/USD Vulnerable, Aiming for $22.20-$22.10 Retest

Silver witnessed a fleeting upward movement during the Asian trading session, attempting to breach the pivotal $23.00 level. However, this surge was short-lived, with silver unable to maintain the momentum required to sustain a position above this critical threshold. Delving into the intricacies of this price action, the breach below the $22.85-$22.80 support range signifies a significant shift in market sentiment that leans decidedly bearish. This sentiment is further corroborated by closely examining the oscillators on the daily chart, which appear to signal the potential for further downward movement.

The repercussions of this bearish sentiment set the stage for a testing period for silver as it gears up for a retest of the robust support zone in the $22.20-$22.10 range. In more pessimistic scenarios, the price could venture even lower, extending its downward trajectory to the $21.25 region.

In the event of a shift in momentum favoring the upside, silver would encounter various resistance levels. Initially, surpassing the psychological hurdle at $23.00 would be met with a resistance barrier of around $23.20. Further upward momentum would then contend with the presence of the 200-day Simple Moving Average, a key technical indicator, which is situated within the $23.45-$23.50 range. Beyond this, the 100-day SMA would pose another formidable obstacle at approximately $23.80, closely followed by the psychologically significant $24.00 level.

Should market dynamics and trader sentiment align so that these resistance levels are convincingly breached, it would represent a significant departure from the prevailing negative outlook that currently shrouds XAG/USD. This potential turning point could set the stage for a short-covering rally, propelling silver past the confines of the $24.30-$24.35 range. At this juncture, the coveted target for traders is the psychological and strategically significant level of $25.00, a threshold that corresponds notably with the August monthly swing high.

Attainment of the $25.00 level would constitute a pivotal moment for the market, potentially recalibrating prevailing sentiment from bearish to bullish. Such an achievement would signify renewed optimism among traders, acting as a catalyst for further gains in silver. Thus, market participants will keenly monitor price action around the $25.00 level, recognizing its capacity to redefine the trajectory of XAG/USD in the near term and offer crucial insights into the market’s direction.

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US PCE Data Approaches

WTI Crude Oil Rises Above $87 as Supply Cuts and China’s Recovery Boost Prices

WTI Crude Oil Rises Above $87 as Supply Cuts and China’s Recovery Boost Prices

WTI Crude Oil has surged above $87 per barrel, reaching its highest since November 2022. The rise in prices can be attributed to several factors, including extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as positive economic developments in China.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, both major players in the oil market, have recently announced that they will continue cutting oil production for the rest of the year. This decision has created a sense of supply tightness and supported the upward movement of WTI prices. Saudi Arabia, in particular, will reduce its crude output to approximately 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of 2023.

China’s improving economic conditions have also played a role in boosting WTI prices. As the world’s largest oil importer, any positive signs from China have a significant impact on the market. The country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed a 0.1% year-on-year increase, signaling a decrease in deflation concerns compared to the previous month’s 0.3% drop. This improvement has further bolstered confidence in the oil market.

However, there are potential factors that may limit the upward trajectory of WTI prices. Recent positive economic data from the United States, especially concerning interest rates, could have an impact. Higher interest rates can result in increased borrowing costs, potentially slowing down economic growth and subsequently reducing oil demand.

Oil traders will closely monitor upcoming data releases, such as the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change reports, as well as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). These events have the potential to significantly influence the value of WTI and present opportunities for oil traders to capitalize on market fluctuations.

In summary, WTI Crude Oil has experienced a notable surge, surpassing $87 per barrel, driven by production cuts by major oil exporters and positive economic indicators from China. However, the potential impact of interest rates and upcoming data releases should be closely monitored to determine the future trajectory of WTI prices.

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WTI Holds Steady Near $68.50 Amid US Dollar Strength

WTI surpasses $86.40, eyes on US ISM Services PMI

WTI surpasses $86.40, eyes on US ISM Services PMI

Presently, the price of a particular type of oil known as WTI stands at approximately $86.40 on this Wednesday. It was a bit higher at $88.00 previously, but it has dipped a little since then. The recent surge in the price of WTI can be attributed to the decisions made by two significant countries, namely Saudi Arabia and Russia, who have indicated their intention to reduce their oil production. This announcement has had the effect of driving up the price of WTI in recent weeks.

Both Saudi Arabia and Russia are major players in the global oil market. They produce a lot of oil and sell it to various countries around the world. These countries have now stated that they will continue to decrease the amount of oil they produce until the end of 2023. This news caused the price of WTI to increase significantly over the past few weeks. However, it’s important to note that Saudi Arabia will still be producing around 9 million barrels of oil each day in the coming months. They will review this decision every month to determine whether they should produce more or less oil.

However, there is a factor that has prevented the price of WTI from rising too steeply. The economic data coming from China has not been very favorable. In August, businesses in China that provide services like car maintenance or house cleaning did not experience significant growth. In fact, their growth was the slowest in eight months, according to a report by a company called Caixin. This is noteworthy because China happens to be the largest buyer of oil in the world.

Looking ahead, traders are eagerly anticipating the release of two important reports. One is called the US ISM Services PMI, and the other is the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for the week ending September 1. These reports will provide more insights into the current oil supply and the health of the services sector in the United States. Since the price of WTI is denominated in US dollars, this information holds significant importance for those who trade in the oil market. They will be paying close attention to these reports to gain insights and potentially make decisions about buying or selling oil based on the information they contain.

 

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WTI Nears $73.00 Amidst Rising Tensions

WTI Hovers Below $80 as China Growth Concerns and US Rate Hike Fears Persist

WTI Hovers Below $80 as China Growth Concerns and US Rate Hike Fears Persist

As the trading week unfolds, the Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil benchmark finds itself hovering around the $79.85 mark on Tuesday, revealing a minor upward shift following a pullback from the $80.68 level. The oil market remains ensnared in the grip of investor concerns revolving around the trajectory of China’s economic growth and the looming specter of potential interest rate hikes in the United States, both of which have the potential to impede oil demand and sway WTI prices.

A key driver in the unfolding narrative is the Federal Reserve’s resolute stance on prospective rate hikes, a factor exacerbating uncertainties that play into the undulating path of WTI prices. The recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have reverberated through the market, underscoring the central bank’s readiness to ratchet up interest rates if deemed expedient. Powell’s announcement underscores that any forthcoming rate determinations will be tethered to empirical data. Moreover, Powell accentuated the landscape of robust economic expansion and a labor market characterized by taut conditions, signaling the possibility of a prolonged cycle of tightening measures. However, this trajectory could potentially fetter the upward thrust of WTI prices, given the domino effect of heightened interest rates on escalating borrowing costs, sluggish economic growth, and a consequential dampening of oil demand.

The unfolding scenario is further compounded by mounting unease regarding China’s economic deceleration, a factor assuming particular significance due to China’s stature as a premier global oil importer. The focal point for many observers is the imminent release of China’s Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for August. An underwhelming outcome in this report could likely exert downward pressure on WTI prices, given China’s pivotal role in global oil dynamics.

Concurrently, a counterbalancing influence on the oil market emerges through the prism of supply dynamics. Notably, voluntary production curtailments orchestrated by Saudi Arabia and Russia inject support into the equation. Saudi Arabia’s pronouncement to sustain September production at an approximate rate of 9 million barrels per day, representing a reduction of roughly 1 million barrels from August levels, has the potential to wield a stabilizing impact on prices.

Looking forward, the oil market landscape becomes punctuated by key impending events. One noteworthy juncture is the impending release of China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for August, scheduled to be unveiled on the ensuing Friday. Market projections anticipate a modest rise in the index from 49.2 to 49.3, indicating a potentially delicate economic balance. However, the zenith of this week’s developments hinges on the unveiling of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, also slated for release on Friday. These events emerge as pivotal inflection points with the capability to markedly sway USD-denominated WTI prices. In light of this, astute oil traders are poised to intently parse through these data releases, harnessing insights to strategically navigate trading opportunities linked to the oscillations in WTI prices.

 

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WTI Holds Near $78.60 Amid US Inflation and China Economic Worries

WTI Holds Near $78.60 Amid US Inflation and China Economic Worries

Today, the price of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the key US crude oil benchmark, is holding steady around the $78.60 level. This marks the fourth consecutive day of negative trading as two main factors weighing on the market.

First, there are growing concerns about the potential tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a significant drop of nearly 6 million barrels in crude oil inventories for the week ending August 11, surpassing expectations of a 2.3 million barrel contraction. Despite this decline, crude oil production has been rising since the initial impact of the pandemic, indicating a steady recovery in demand.

However, the recently released minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting highlighted persistent high inflation. Fed officials are acknowledging significant inflation risks that may require further monetary tightening to align inflation with long-term targets. This hawkish stance is capping the upward movement of WTI prices, as higher interest rates can dampen economic activity and oil demand due to increased borrowing costs.

Another cause for concern is the state of China’s economy. Data shows a decline in the Chinese House Price Index for July, raising alarm bells about a potential property crisis. This concern is amplified by the struggles of major developer Country Garden Holdings in meeting debt obligations. Additionally, Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production for July fell short of expectations, indicating further economic distress in China that could put downward pressure on oil prices.

On a positive note, the tightening supply dynamics could exert upward pressure on WTI prices. Saudi Arabia has announced an extension of its voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day through September. Similarly, Russia is planning to decrease its oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day in September. Recent reports suggest that Saudi Arabia’s oil exports have reached their lowest level since September 2021, dipping below 7 million barrels per day.

Looking ahead, oil traders will closely monitor US weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for August, as well as ongoing developments in China’s economic landscape. These factors will significantly influence the price of WTI, guiding trading strategies in response to evolving market conditions.

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WTI Holds Firm Above $82: China’s Issues and US Retail Sales in Focus

WTI Holds Firm Above $82: China’s Issues and US Retail Sales in Focus

The Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price has maintained its position above the $82 mark on the trading landscape, with two major factors shaping its trajectory: concerns over China’s economic challenges and anticipation of US retail sales data.

Amid the economic turmoil caused by the Chinese real estate sector, investors are closely monitoring how these developments might affect global markets. Specifically, Country Garden Holdings Co.’s bond and share price declines have raised alarms, triggering concerns of potential significant defaults within the sector. The broader implications of China’s real estate market instability are magnifying the impact on the WTI price.

Adding to these concerns, China’s recent inflation data has sparked further unease. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July exhibited deflationary signs, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Given that China is one of the world’s largest oil consumers, any economic shifts in the country have direct consequences on global oil demand and prices.

In contrast to these concerns, supply-side factors are exerting their influence. Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend its voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day (bpd) through September suggests a tightening of supply. Additionally, Russia’s plans to reduce its oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September adds to the support for higher WTI prices.

Both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) have displayed optimism for the second half of the year. The IEA projects a demand increase of 2.2 million bpd in 2023, driven by factors like increased air travel, growing oil demand in power generation, and elevated petrochemical activity in China. OPEC, on the other hand, anticipates a production increase of 2.44 million bpd.

In the coming days, the focus will shift to key data releases. The attention of oil traders will be directed towards US Retail Sales figures for July, with expectations of a rise from 0.2% to 0.4%. Additionally, the upcoming releases of the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) Weekly Crude Oil Stock report and the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks for the week ending August 11 will provide further insight into market dynamics. These data points will play a vital role in guiding oil traders as they analyze opportunities related to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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WTI Crude Oil Steadies Around $82.30 Ahead of EIA Report and US Inflation Figures

WTI Crude Oil Steadies Around $82.30 Ahead of EIA Report and US Inflation Figures

In the early European session on Wednesday, WTI, the benchmark for US crude oil, is exhibiting little movement as prices fluctuate within a narrow range of $82.20 to $82.45. The market is grappling with concerns over China’s dwindling demand for oil due to trade dynamics and inflation patterns, which are exerting downward pressure on WTI prices.

The release of Chinese inflation data for July reveals a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), deviating from the previous reading of 0%. Surpassing market expectations of a decline of -0.4%, this slight improvement is encouraging news. Furthermore, the Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, surpassing the anticipated drop of 4.1%.

A significant decline of 18.8% in China’s crude oil imports during July is particularly noteworthy, marking the lowest level since January. This decline is worrisome considering that China stands as the world’s largest consumer of oil.

Conversely, the latest report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides some support for WTI prices. The EIA projects a 1.9% increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2023, an improvement from the previous forecast of 1.5%. According to the report, the recent surge in crude prices can be attributed to Saudi Arabia’s voluntary output restrictions and the growing global demand for oil.

WTI prices have received an additional boost from Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend its one-million-barrel-per-day oil output cut until September, along with Russia’s plan to reduce oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September.

Traders are anxiously awaiting the release of the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change report on Wednesday, covering the week ending August 4. Furthermore, they have their eyes set on key events such as the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) later this week. The analysis of this data will be crucial for traders as it has the potential to significantly impact the value of USD-denominated WTI, creating trading opportunities in the oil market.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, keeping the USD/JPY pair firm around the 147.00 mark during the Asian session. A stronger US Dollar and persistent concerns over rising trade tensions are weighing heavily on the Yen, as markets brace for the impact of US tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1. 

Former US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese imports, coupled with the threat of retaliatory action, has sparked renewed fears over Japan’s economic resilience. The country’s Q1 GDP contracted, real wages in May dropped at their steepest pace in nearly two years, and political uncertainty is rising ahead of the July 20 House of Councillors election. Recent polls suggest the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may struggle to retain its majority, further dampening investor confidence. 

These developments have led traders to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. The combination of domestic headwinds and external pressure is weakening the JPY, while the US Dollar continues to gain on expectations that rising tariffs will stoke inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. 

The Fed’s June decision to hold interest rates steady, along with a strong US jobs report, has reinforced the belief that rate cuts may be delayed until at least October. The FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, will be closely watched for insights into the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets currently anticipate up to 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end. 

Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds 

Technically, USD/JPY’s break and close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) — for the first time since February — signals potential for further gains. Positive momentum on the daily chart supports a move toward the 147.60–147.65 resistance area, with the 148.00 handle, a key June high, in sight. 

On the downside, immediate support lies near 146.50, with the 100-day SMA just below 146.00 acting as a critical pivot. A decisive break below this level could shift momentum in favor of bears, opening room for deeper losses. 

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NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5700 on weaker US PMI data

During the early Asian session on Thursday, the NZD/USD pair was trading slightly higher at 0.5690. The Greenback falls against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as US economic data disappoints. Investors will keenly monitor developments in the rekindled trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. 

The weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) could weigh on the Greenback and generate a tailwind for the pair. The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3.

On the other hand, New Zealand’s fourth-quarter employment report will put the RBNZ on pace to decrease the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% this month. Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday that the country’s unemployment rate increased to 5.1% in Q4, up from 4.8% the previous quarter. This result was a four-year high and exceeded the 25-year average of 4.8%. Rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may decrease interest rates may further impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

“In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% at the February 19 meeting and the policy rate to through around 3.00% over the next 12 months. Bottom line: NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD,” noted Société Générale’s FX analysts. 

On Tuesday, the finance ministry in China unveiled a package of tariffs on various US products such as crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos in a sharp response to an announcement made by US President Donald Trump imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Further, China served notice to several companies including Google for potential sanctions in response to Trump’s tariffs. Any sign of uncertainty or a rising trade war tension may see the China-proxy Kiwi being dragged lower, as China remains one of the major trading partners to New Zealand.

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JPY Recovers Losses vs. USD, Bullish Outlook Intact

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses Against USD; Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

The Japanese yen (JPY) cut some of its intraday losses against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, bringing the USD/JPY pair back below the mid-155.00s during the early European session. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions showed conversations about the possibility of further hikes in interest rates. Furthermore, Tokyo’s core inflation increased at the quickest annual rate in nearly a year, raising expectations of further policy tightening by the BoJ, which supports the JPY.

Beyond monetary policy, narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economies, including the US, alongside a broader risk-off sentiment, provide additional support to the safe-haven JPY. However, concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s newly announced trade tariffs limit the yen’s upside. Meanwhile, the USD remains broadly strong, allowing the USD/JPY pair to maintain its positive momentum for a second consecutive day, ahead of the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI report.

Yen Gains Traction Amid BoJ Rate Hike Bets and Trade War Fears

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, effective Tuesday.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, and China’s foreign ministry all replied quickly, indicating probable retaliation. The US Dollar continues to climb, approaching a two-year high last hit in January, supporting the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

The Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions, released on Monday, showed that policymakers are thinking about additional rate hikes, though this has failed to appreciably lift the JPY.

Board members of the Bank of Japan stressed the need of continuing to raise interest rates if economic conditions and inflation remain stable.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the government is closely monitoring the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the yen amid concerns over potential economic fallout.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reiterated Japan’s commitment to achieving the BoJ’s 2% inflation target while implementing measures to offset rising living costs.

The US-Japan yield spread remains near a multi-week low, which, coupled with risk aversion, could help stabilize the yen in the near term.

Investors now turn their focus to key US economic data, starting with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Near 156.25; Bears in Control Below This Level

From a technical standpoint, last week’s strong rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally and the subsequent upside move favor bullish traders. However, additional gains beyond 156.00 may encounter resistance near last week’s swing high at 156.25. A sustained break above this level could spark a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards:

  • 156.70-156.75 resistance
  • 157.00 psychological mark
  • 157.60 horizontal barrier
  • Potential extension towards 158.00, with an ultimate target at the 158.85-158.90 multi-month high from January 10

Conversely, on the downside:-

  • 155.00 serves as immediate support
  • Below this, watch for key levels at 154.55-154.50 and 154.00
  • A break below the 153.70 January low could accelerate the decline towards 153.30 and eventually 153.00

While the JPY is exhibiting some resilience, the overall trend remains unpredictable, with market participants intently watching economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

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Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rise, Fed Decision Looms

Australian Dollar Slides Amid Rising Odds of RBA Rate Cuts, Fed Decision in Focus

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak for a third consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD), weighed down by softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, matching the previous quarter but missing the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI eased to 2.4% from 2.8% in Q3, below the market forecast of 2.5%. Despite December’s monthly CPI ticking up to 2.5% YoY, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2%-3% target range. Meanwhile, the RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI slowed to 3.2% YoY, its weakest pace in three years, slightly under the anticipated 3.3%.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed confidence that “the worst of the inflation challenge is behind us” and that a “soft landing” is increasingly likely. The cooling inflation strengthens the case for an RBA rate cut in February. The central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing the need for inflation to “sustainably” return to target before considering a rate reduction.

AUD Pressured by Risk Aversion, Trump’s Tariff Threats

The AUD faces additional headwinds from risk-off sentiment following tariff threats by former US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of key commodities, including computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to boost US manufacturing.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm around 108.00 as traders turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, indicate near-certainty that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for guidance on future policy shifts.

Concerns over the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies add another layer of uncertainty. US Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino noted, “A number of White House proposals appear inflationary, which could keep the Fed in check.” Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed universal tariffs on US imports starting at 2.5%, with Trump reportedly favoring even higher rates.

China’s Economic Slowdown Adds Pressure on AUD

The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to China’s economic struggles. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1, missing expectations, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.2 from 52.2. As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s weak data weighs heavily on the AUD.

Despite China’s recent stimulus measures, including a $7.25 billion investment in index products and long-term stock investments, concerns persist. Industrial profits fell 3.3% YoY in 2024, marking a third consecutive year of contraction, driven by weak demand, deflationary pressures, and a prolonged property sector slump.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Turns Bearish Below 0.6250

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6230 on Wednesday after breaking below the ascending channel on the daily chart, signaling a shift toward a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, reinforcing downside momentum.

A decisive break below key support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel strengthens the bearish outlook, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward 0.6131—its lowest level since April 2020. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6256. A rebound above this level could reintroduce a bullish bias, with the next upside target near 0.6360.

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US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

The US dollar strengthened significantly against all major currencies after President Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary reignited concerns about potential tariffs, raising fears that trade policies may return to the forefront. Risk-sensitive currencies, particularly those tied to China, saw sharp declines, while the euro weakened amid speculation that the European Union could soon face tariff pressures. Simultaneously, the Japanese yen took a hit as traders hedged against potential US inflation spikes and rising Treasury yields.

This market turbulence followed a Financial Times report indicating that Scott Bessent, the newly appointed Treasury Department official, supports a phased approach to implementing universal tariffs on US imports. The initial proposal suggests starting with a 2.5% tariff rate. However, President Trump hinted at a much broader scope, potentially targeting a range of imports from steel to semiconductor chips and suggesting higher tariff rates over time.

The administration’s “moderate” proposal involves a gradual increase in tariffs, reaching 20% over eight months in increments of 2.5% per month. This timeline has triggered speculation about more extreme scenarios and raised questions about the global trade concessions needed to halt these measures. Bessent’s approach, which allows businesses time to adjust, could also spark a rush of imports and exports to avoid higher future costs.

Amid these developments, financial markets are grappling with the potential outcomes. Traders are assessing whether the proposed tariff measures are fully priced in and evaluating the likelihood of de-escalation through negotiation.

On the positive side, any concessions or agreements that delay or reduce tariffs could stabilize markets. However, the risks of escalating tariffs, particularly if negotiations fail, remain a significant concern. Higher tariffs could disrupt global trade and have far-reaching implications for currency valuations.

While we initially favored long positions on the dollar, the unfolding tariff narrative has introduced significant uncertainty. Staying prepared for sudden shifts in policy and market dynamics is now crucial as the situation continues to evolve.

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Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) ended its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the AUD/USD pair trading flat following the release of mixed Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. As a close trade partner, Australia’s economy is heavily influenced by China’s economic performance.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, down from 50.1 in December, missing market expectations. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 from the previous month’s 52.2. These weaker-than-expected figures suggest a slowdown in China’s economic recovery, weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.

Despite fresh stimulus measures from China aimed at revitalizing its equity markets, the AUD struggled to gain momentum. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a second round of long-term stock investment pilot programs valued at 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). However, these measures have done little to alleviate investor concerns about China’s economic challenges.

Risk Aversion Rises Amid Trump’s Trade Tariff Push

Broader market sentiment took a hit as reports emerged that US President Donald Trump’s advisers are pushing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February 1, bypassing negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s willingness to move swiftly on tariffs follows similar actions taken against Colombia, raising fears of escalating trade tensions and dampening demand for riskier assets like the Australian Dollar.

Adding to the negative outlook, China’s Industrial Profits declined by 3.3% year-over-year in 2024 to CNY 7,431.05 billion, marking the third consecutive year of contraction. This downturn highlights ongoing economic headwinds, including weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property sector.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Bullish Setup

The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6290 on Monday, showing signs of upward momentum within an ascending channel on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 50, reflecting mild optimism in the market.

On the upside, the pair could retest the psychological resistance level at 0.6300, with the next target near the channel’s upper boundary around 0.6350.

Support levels are found at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6265, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6254. A stronger support lies near the channel’s lower boundary around 0.6240, which could act as a safety net in case of a downside correction.

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NZD/USD Struggles

NZD/USD Struggles Below 0.5700 Amid Trump’s Tariff Plans and Dovish RBNZ Expectations

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading near 0.5675 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces headwinds due to uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China and the dovish outlook of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicated a continued decline in underlying inflation, strengthening expectations of additional rate cuts by the RBNZ. Swap markets now estimate a nearly 90% chance of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut on February 19, building on the two cuts already implemented in this cycle. The RBNZ is projected to deliver a total of 100 bps in rate cuts through the remainder of 2025.

Meanwhile, the downside for the pair could be capped by recent comments from Trump. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump called for immediate interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” Trump said.

Investors are now closely watching for further details on Trump’s tariff policies, alongside key US economic data releases. The flash US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for January will be a key focus later on Friday, along with the release of US Existing Home Sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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