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Gold Price Drops to $2,640, Holds Above Key Support After NFP Data

Gold Price Slips to $2,640, Holds Above Friday’s Post-NFP Low and Trading Range Support

Gold Price Slips to $2,640, Holds Above Friday’s Post-NFP Low and Trading Range Support

Gold (XAU/USD) faced fresh selling pressure on Monday, dropping to a daily low of around $2,640 as the European session approached. The US Dollar (USD) remains near a seven-week high, bolstered by traders adjusting expectations for a large interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. Friday’s strong US employment report, combined with a generally positive risk sentiment, continues to weigh on gold demand.

Despite the positive market outlook, geopolitical tensions stemming from conflicts in the Middle East and the threat of a wider war may still support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Therefore, a break below the $2,635-$2,630 support zone is needed before betting on further declines for gold.

Market Movers: Gold Price Weakens Amid Strong USD, Smaller Fed Rate Cut Expectations

The robust US employment report on Friday reduced the likelihood of aggressive policy easing by the Fed, which continues to dampen demand for non-yielding assets like gold. The US Labor Department reported that 254K jobs were added in September, far surpassing expectations, while the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. Revisions for July and August also revealed 72K additional jobs, signaling a resilient labor market and a stronger economy.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders now anticipate a 95% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s November policy meeting. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond hovers near the 4.0% level, and the strong US Dollar continues to keep gold bulls on the defensive.

Easing fears of an economic slowdown in the US, alongside optimism from China’s stimulus measures, have contributed to the positive sentiment in equity markets. However, geopolitical risks remain elevated, as Israel launched a fresh round of airstrikes in Gaza and Lebanon, and Hezbollah retaliated with attacks on Haifa. The rising tension increases the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East, which could enhance gold’s safe-haven demand, cautioning bearish traders.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Price Outlook Hinges on Key Support and Resistance Levels

From a technical perspective, gold’s current range-bound trading may be viewed as a bullish consolidation following its recent surge to record highs. Daily chart indicators remain comfortably in positive territory, having eased from overbought conditions, which supports the prospect of an eventual breakout to the upside. However, traders may want to wait for a sustained move above the $2,670-$2,672 resistance level before placing fresh bullish bets. Clearing this zone, along with the $2,685-$2,686 region and the $2,700 mark, could pave the way for a continuation of the long-term uptrend.

On the downside, immediate support for gold lies at the $2,630 area. A decisive break below this level could trigger technical selling, pushing the XAU/USD price under $2,600 and towards the next key support near $2,560. A deeper corrective decline could target the $2,535-$2,530 region, with the $2,500 psychological mark acting as a major support zone.

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Gold Price Approaches Weekly High as USD Softens; US NFP Report in Focus

Gold Price Nears Weekly High Amid Softer USD; Focus Shifts to US NFP Report

Gold Price Nears Weekly High Amid Softer USD; Focus Shifts to US NFP Report

Gold (XAU/USD) gained momentum on Friday, climbing toward the $2,668 mark, near its weekly high, as the US Dollar (USD) slightly retreats from the one-month peak reached on Thursday. The USD’s pullback, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has driven safe-haven demand for the precious metal during the European session.

However, the upside for gold might be capped by reduced expectations of aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders remain cautious ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the next directional move for gold. Despite this, XAU/USD hovers close to last week’s all-time high, and the overall outlook still favors bullish traders.

Market Movers: Gold Price Gains as USD Slips; Eyes on US NFP for Fresh Cues

On Thursday, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported that initial unemployment claims increased marginally to 225K in the week ending September 28, up from 218K. This followed stronger-than-expected private-sector employment data for September and a surprising rise in available jobs in August, signaling a resilient labor market.

Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.9 in September, its highest level since February 2023, reflecting economic stability in the third quarter. These factors reduced expectations for another large rate cut by the Fed, boosting the USD to a one-month high and acting as a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.

On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East escalated further. On Thursday, Hezbollah launched approximately 230 projectiles from Lebanon into Israeli territory. In response, Israel carried out strikes on Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in Beirut early Friday. With the risk of a full-scale conflict rising, gold continues to benefit from its status as a safe-haven asset.

Looking ahead, traders are focused on the US NFP report, which is expected to show a 140K job increase in September, slightly down from the previous 142K, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.2%. The report, along with Average Hourly Earnings data, could influence the size of the Fed’s expected rate cut in November, potentially driving fresh USD demand and providing directional momentum for gold.

Technical Outlook: Gold Poised to Challenge All-Time High, Eyes $2,700 Mark

From a technical perspective, the recent price movement is seen as a bullish consolidation phase following gold’s strong rally to its record high. Daily chart oscillators remain comfortably in positive territory, further supporting the bullish outlook. Immediate resistance lies around the $2,672-$2,673 area, followed by the $2,685-$2,686 zone—the previous all-time high. A break above these levels could open the path to the psychological $2,700 mark, extending the long-standing uptrend.

On the downside, support is expected around the $2,625-$2,624 area, near a short-term ascending channel resistance point. A break below this level could trigger aggressive selling, potentially dragging gold below $2,600 and towards the $2,560 and $2,535-$2,530 support zones. Further declines could see XAU/USD testing the $2,500 psychological level.

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Gold Price Under Pressure as Strong USD Prevails, Middle East Tensions Cap Losses

Gold Price Stays Under Pressure as Strong USD Weighs, Middle East Tensions Limit Losses

Gold Price Stays Under Pressure as Strong USD Weighs, Middle East Tensions Limit Losses

Gold (XAU/USD) faced renewed selling pressure after bouncing from the $2,641 level and remains defensive as the European session begins on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) continues its recovery, reaching a three-week high, as expectations for aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) diminish. This stronger USD is negatively impacting the demand for non-yielding assets like gold, though escalating tensions in the Middle East are helping to cushion deeper losses.

Recent geopolitical developments, including Iran launching over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel and Israel’s airstrike on central Beirut, Lebanon, have heightened fears of a broader conflict in the region. This has tempered risk appetite, as reflected in weaker equity markets, and provided some support for the safe-haven gold price. However, gold traders will keep a close watch on Thursday’s US economic data, with the focus shifting toward the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

Daily Market Movers: Gold Price Bears Defend as USD Strength Persists

Stronger US labor market data and hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday have further strengthened the USD, continuing its recovery from its lowest level since July 2023.

  • Tuesday’s US JOLTS Job Openings report showed a significant rise of 329K jobs, reaching 8.04 million in August, up from July’s revised 7.71 million.
  • Wednesday’s ADP report revealed private employers added 143K jobs in September, surpassing expectations of 120K and August’s 103K figure.

These signals of a resilient US labor market have led investors to reconsider the possibility of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in November. Additionally, hopes that China’s economic stimulus measures will drive a sustained recovery have put further pressure on safe-haven assets like gold.

On the geopolitical front, tensions escalated further with Israel’s airstrike on Beirut, Lebanon, after Iran’s missile barrage earlier in the week, fueling concerns of a full-blown war in the Middle East. This complex backdrop warrants caution before making aggressive bets on XAU/USD ahead of Friday’s critical US NFP report. Thursday’s economic releases, including Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI, along with speeches from key FOMC members, may also provide short-term trading opportunities for gold.

Technical Outlook: Gold Price Set for Dip-Buying Near $2,625 Support

From a technical standpoint, gold’s recent price action suggests a consolidation phase following its strong rally to record highs. Indicators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, suggesting a bullish bias. Immediate resistance is seen at the $2,672-$2,673 level, followed by the $2,685-$2,686 zone, and ultimately the $2,700 mark, which could trigger further bullish momentum.

On the downside, the $2,625-$2,624 region, aligning with the support of a short-term ascending channel, should act as a key level. A break below this could lead to further selling, pushing gold below $2,600 and toward the next major support near $2,560. A deeper decline could extend to $2,535-$2,530, with a potential move down to the psychological $2,500 mark.

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Japanese Yen Weakens as US Dollar Gains Strength Ahead of ADP Employment Report

Japanese Yen Declines as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of ADP Employment Report

Japanese Yen Declines as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of ADP Employment Report

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, as uncertainty grows around the possibility of future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from September’s Monetary Policy Meeting indicated no immediate plans for further rate hikes, with the central bank maintaining its accommodative stance while remaining open to adjustments if economic conditions improve.

Japan’s Economic Revitalization Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, stated on Wednesday that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expects the BoJ to thoroughly evaluate the economy before raising rates. In his first press briefing, Akazawa stressed that Japan’s top priority is to completely exit deflation, which he noted will take time.

The US Dollar remains supported by a cautious market mood amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, the weaker-than-expected US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September applied some downward pressure on the Greenback. Market attention is now shifting to the upcoming US ADP Employment Change report and comments from Federal Reserve officials for further market direction.

Daily Market Highlights: Yen Depreciates as BoJ Rate Hike Odds Wane

The CME FedWatch Tool suggests markets are assigning a 63.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut at 36.9%, down from 58.2% a week ago.

In the Middle East, Iran launched over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to vow retaliation. Iran responded with warnings that any counterstrike would result in “vast destruction,” intensifying concerns of a wider conflict.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.2 for September, matching August’s reading but falling short of the expected 47.5, signaling ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector.

In Japan, the Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q3 remained steady at 13 points, as expected. Additionally, Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.5% in August from 2.7% in July, outperforming forecasts of 2.6%, according to data released on Tuesday.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated on Monday that the Fed is not in a hurry to reduce interest rates, stating that future cuts will be made “over time.” Powell also noted that the recent 50 basis point rate cut should not be seen as a signal for further aggressive actions.

Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, affirmed that the country’s monetary policy would remain accommodative to support its fragile economic recovery, which has further pressured the Japanese Yen and supported the USD/JPY pair.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated last week that the Fed should begin cutting rates “gradually” following the larger-than-expected half-point reduction in September. He also acknowledged that the economy could weaken more than anticipated, which may call for faster rate cuts.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Holds Above 143.50 with Bullish Bias

The USD/JPY pair is trading around 143.80 on Wednesday, consolidating within an ascending channel pattern, suggesting a bullish outlook. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 level; a break above this threshold would further confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.

The pair may encounter resistance near the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 146.80, followed by the five-week high of 147.21, last reached on September 3.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 143.50, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 143.00. A break below this level could push the USD/JPY pair toward 139.58, the lowest since June 2023.

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Pound Sterling Holds Steady

Pound Sterling Steadies Near 1.3400 Ahead of US PMI and Labor Data

Pound Sterling Steadies Near 1.3400 Ahead of US PMI and Labor Data

The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains in a tight range around the key resistance level of 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) during Tuesday’s London session. Investors are holding back as they await critical US labor market data, which could provide insight into the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plans for further rate cuts this year.

The Fed began its policy-easing cycle with a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.75%-5.00% on September 18. This larger-than-expected cut was driven by concerns over weakening job growth and growing confidence that inflation is moving toward the Fed’s 2% target.

To gauge the health of the labor market, traders will closely monitor the US ADP Employment Change on Wednesday and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. These data points will be critical in shaping expectations for future Fed rate cuts.

On Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against speculation of an aggressive rate-cutting cycle, emphasizing that the Fed is not in a rush to lower rates quickly. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference, Powell said, “If the economy evolves as expected, that would mean two more cuts by the end of the year, totaling an additional half percentage point.”

For Tuesday’s session, investors are focused on the US JOLTS Job Openings data for August and the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September, due at 14:00 GMT. Economists forecast that job openings will remain steady at approximately 7.67 million, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve slightly to 47.5 from 47.2, though this would still signal contraction in the factory sector.

Market Movers: Pound Sterling Gains as BoE Caution on Inflation Persists

The Pound Sterling is performing strongly against its major counterparts on Tuesday. The currency has gained momentum as market bets on a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in November have cooled following remarks from BoE external policymaker Megan Greene.

Greene, who voted to keep rates unchanged in the last two meetings, noted that the UK’s consumption-driven recovery could re-ignite inflationary pressures. She warned that the recent drop in headline inflation to the BoE’s 2% target was primarily due to temporary lower oil prices, while inflation in the service sector remains elevated at 5.6%, a concern for BoE policymakers. Despite this, she expressed confidence that inflation is trending in the right direction, according to Bloomberg.

Market participants now expect the BoE to cut rates one more time in the final quarter of 2024, likely at the December meeting. The BoE initiated its normalization process with a 25 bps rate cut on August 1 but held rates steady in September.

Looking ahead, a key event for the Pound Sterling will be BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s speech at 14:00 GMT, which could offer more clarity on the BoE’s interest rate strategy for the remainder of the year.

Additionally, investors will watch for the revised estimate of the S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI for September, scheduled for release at 08:30 GMT, with expectations that it will remain unchanged at 51.5.

Technical Outlook: Pound Sterling Sideways Near 1.3400

The Pound Sterling is trading sideways near the 1.3400 resistance level against the US Dollar during European trading hours. The short-term outlook for GBP/USD remains positive, as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), near 1.3250, is trending higher.

GBP/USD maintains a bullish structure, having broken above a trendline drawn from the December 28, 2023, high of 1.2828, a breakout achieved on August 21.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped slightly but remains above 60, indicating ongoing bullish momentum.

Upside resistance for GBP/USD is expected near the psychological level of 1.3500, while support lies at the 20-day EMA near 1.3235, a critical level for GBP bulls.

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Australian Dollar Strengthens as US Dollar Weakens Ahead of Fed Powell Speech

Australian Dollar Gains as US Dollar Remains Soft Ahead of Fed Powell’s Speech

Australian Dollar Gains as US Dollar Remains Soft Ahead of Fed Powell’s Speech

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its gains for a third consecutive session on Monday, despite mixed data from China, Australia’s largest trading partner. The rise in AUD is supported by growing expectations of further US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in November, weakening the US Dollar (USD) and lifting the AUD/USD pair.

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3 in September from 50.4, signaling contraction. Meanwhile, the Caixin Services PMI also fell, hitting 50.3, down from 51.6 in August, pointing to a services sector slowdown.

The US Dollar has been under pressure following the release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August, which rose just 0.1% MoM, below the expected 0.2%. This aligns with the Fed’s outlook of easing inflation, raising the likelihood of an aggressive rate-cutting cycle. Markets now assign a 42.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 57.1% chance of a 50-basis-point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Market Movers: AUD Boosted by RBA’s Hawkish Stance

China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 in September, surpassing expectations. However, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.0, down from 50.3, falling short of forecasts. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate at 4.35% for the seventh consecutive meeting, maintaining a hawkish stance to curb inflation, which supports AUD strength.

Additionally, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem stated that the Fed could begin cutting interest rates “gradually” after a half-point reduction in September, noting that a faster pace might be needed if the economy weakens further.

On the global stage, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers acknowledged China’s economic slowdown but welcomed its new stimulus measures as a positive development for global growth.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Shows Bullish Momentum

The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6920, holding above the lower boundary of an ascending channel, suggesting continued bullish momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, confirming the bullish sentiment. The pair could target the 0.7000 level at the upper boundary of the channel, with a potential break signaling further upside. However, a failure to break above could lead to a pullback. On the downside, a break below 0.6920 could weaken the bullish bias, with the next support around the 0.6853 level.

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Japanese Yen Drops as No Candidate Secures Majority

Japanese Yen Drops as No Candidate Secures Majority in LDP Voting First Round

Japanese Yen Drops as No Candidate Secures Majority in LDP Voting First Round

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken for the third consecutive session, following the release of Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday. Investors are concerned that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may delay further rate hikes, adding pressure to the JPY.

Tokyo’s CPI for September showed a year-over-year increase of 2.2%, down from the 2.6% rise in August. Core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, remained stable at 1.6% YoY, while the CPI excluding fresh food increased 2.0%, in line with expectations but lower than the previous 2.4%.

The US Dollar may face challenges amid dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials. Traders are now watching the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for further direction.

Market Movers: Japanese Yen Declines Amid Uncertainty Over BoJ Policy

In the first round of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, leading candidates included former Defense Chief Shigeru Ishiba, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, who garnered 154, 136, and 181 votes, respectively. A majority of 368 votes was required, leading to a run-off between Ishiba and Takaichi.

Meanwhile, US economic data continues to impact the markets. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2 grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, as per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, while the GDP Price Index rose 2.5%. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 20 came in at 218K, below the consensus of 225K and the previous week’s revised 222K.

BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes indicated the importance of vigilance against inflation risks, with some members suggesting a rate hike to 0.25% might be appropriate to adjust monetary support. Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the BoJ has time to assess the economy before making further policy changes, citing Japan’s deeply negative real interest rates, which continue to boost the economy.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Holds Above 145.00, Bullish Momentum

USD/JPY is trading around 145.10 on Friday, showing bullish momentum within an ascending channel. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above 50, signaling continued bullish sentiment.

If the upward trend continues, the USD/JPY pair could test the upper boundary of the channel near 146.90, followed by the five-week high of 147.21 recorded in early September. On the downside, the pair may find support at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 143.89, aligning with the channel’s lower boundary.

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Asian Stocks Inch Up Amid Geopolitical Risk, Anticipating Chinese GDP

Asian Stocks Inch Up Amid Geopolitical Risk, Anticipating Chinese GDP

Asian markets took a positive turn on Tuesday, following the upward momentum in US equities. This recovery comes after a period of losses influenced by the unfolding events in the Middle East. However, the overall market sentiment remains delicate, primarily due to concerns about the potential escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict into a more extensive proxy war with Iran. Additionally, investors are cautiously eyeing significant Chinese economic data scheduled for release this week.

The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a significant factor affecting the risk landscape. Israeli forces have continued their airstrikes on Gaza as efforts to secure a ceasefire have faced obstacles. Israel’s Defense Forces chief indicated the possibility of an eventual ground invasion into the Gaza Strip to combat the Hamas group, a move that could further escalate tensions. Iran has issued warnings in response to a ground invasion, adding to the geopolitical complexities. Moreover, there is a separate potential conflict on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, involving exchanges of artillery fire with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group. These factors collectively cast a shadow of uncertainty over the markets.

Traders may also be adopting a cautious stance, awaiting the release of China’s third-quarter GDP data, a pivotal event given China’s status as Asia’s largest economy. Expectations point toward ongoing economic weakness, raising concerns about China’s economic conditions. Disappointing Chinese data has the potential to impact global risk sentiment and exert downward pressure on Asian stocks. Additionally, market participants are closely monitoring the scheduled speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the week.

The influence of elevated US Treasury bond yields cannot be overlooked. Concerns persist about the economic headwinds stemming from rising borrowing costs, which could act as a restraint on equity market gains, especially as companies prepare to report their quarterly earnings. 

Looking ahead, the market’s sentiment will likely be shaped by a combination of factors, including upcoming economic data releases in the United States, developments in geopolitics, and movements in US bond yields. Retail sales and industrial production figures, set for release during the early North American session, will offer further insights and influence traders’ decisions as they assess short-term opportunities.

 

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Treasuries and Stocks Rally on Fed Comments

Treasuries and Stocks Rally on Fed Comments

Financial markets witnessed a surge as Treasuries and Asian shares soared, driven by Federal Reserve comments that raised speculation about the central bank’s future actions.

The two-year Treasury, sensitive to policy changes, experienced its most significant drop since August’s end. Simultaneously, the benchmark 10-year Treasury had its best performance since March. These moves led traders to bet on the conclusion of the U.S. tightening cycle, amplified by the Israel-Hamas conflict, which spurred demand for safe-haven assets.

As a result, the MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index is set for its most significant gain in three months, with European and U.S. stock futures showing a modest increase. However, the potential impact of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggested a cautious approach, given the recent rise in Treasury yields. Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, also hinted that surging long-term rates might reduce the need for further tightening.

Despite Middle East tensions, markets have remained relatively calm, offering some reassurance to investors, according to Hideyuki Ishiguro, a senior strategist at Nomura Asset Management.

Traders initially bet on another Fed rate hike this year after a surprising surge in U.S. employment in September. However, this changed as central bank officials downplayed the possibility of another 2023 rate increase.

The dollar remained steady as odds for another Fed tightening eased. It traded in a narrow range against its Group-of-10 peers.

However, Middle East tensions could escalate further, with reports of a top U.S. general warning Iran to stay out of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

In Asia, Chinese developer Country Garden Holdings Co. warned of its first-ever default, potentially leading to one of the nation’s largest restructurings.

Oil prices dipped slightly after Monday’s increase following the Hamas attack, while gold remained relatively stable.

Geopolitical concerns, coupled with moderating global economic growth, present challenges for markets, according to Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management. She said they favor fixed income over equities, citing a better risk-reward profile for fixed income.

Potential risks to U.S. stocks may arise from fiscal policy constraints, especially as the Fed combats high inflation, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson. He believes that the absence of a long-term structure supporting fiscal discipline could impact financial markets.

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Asia Stocks Fall, Aussie Remains Down

Asia Stocks Fall, Aussie Remains Down

Hong Kong’s stock market faced a significant setback, plunging by as much as 3.4% upon reopening after a holiday, making it an underperformer compared to other regional indices. This decline contributed to the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index hitting its lowest point since December of the previous year. Simultaneously, China was observing a weeklong holiday.

The Australian dollar managed to stabilize after an earlier loss, while the country’s government bonds remained steady, despite the central bank’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting on Tuesday. The central bank issued a warning about the potential necessity for further tightening of monetary policy.

Asian bond markets experienced a downturn, with Australia’s 10-year bond yield hovering around its highest level since 2011. This mirrored the decline seen in US Treasuries following a series of hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve. These statements overshadowed earlier optimism regarding a deal to avert a US government shutdown. Treasury yields across all maturities increased by approximately 10 basis points on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year note yield reaching its highest level since 2007. However, Treasuries in Asia managed to stabilize on Tuesday.

Market strategist Charu Chanana from Saxo Capital Markets highlighted, “Markets remain risk-averse as the prospect of higher rates for a longer period continues to resonate due to marginally hawkish US data and central bank speakers.”

As the threat of a US government shutdown subsided, global bond selloffs accelerated, with traders increasing their bets on a potential rate hike from the Federal Reserve in November.

In contrast to the overall market trend, China Evergrande Group experienced a surge of up to 42% as it resumed trading following a halt last week.

In the commodities market, gold held its ground after experiencing a decline to its lowest point since March. Oil prices, on the other hand, saw a dip, with West Texas Intermediate falling below $90 a barrel. A Citigroup Inc. analyst suggested that reduced demand from China could limit the price gains resulting from OPEC+ supply cuts.

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S&P 500 Bounces to $4,300, Yet September Ends in Losses

S&P 500 Bounces to $4,300, Yet September Ends in Losses

The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index managed to regain some ground on Thursday, posting a respectable gain of nearly 0.60% and closing just below the critical $4,300.00 level. This positive momentum was mirrored by other major U.S. indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbing 116 points to settle at $33,666.34, an increase of 0.35%, and the Nasdaq Composite outperforming, surging over 0.80% to end the day at $13,201.28.

The rebound in U.S. equities came as a welcome respite for investors who had been enduring a challenging period in September. The S&P 500, in particular, had experienced a sharp decline in recent weeks, with its value plummeting over 5.0% from its September peak, which had approached the lofty heights of $4,540.00. September, it seems, is poised to become the year’s worst-performing month for equities, with most major indexes retreating from the summertime highs.

The sharp drop in equity prices earlier in the month was attributed to a multitude of factors, which sent jitters throughout the financial markets. Chief among these concerns were uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve’s stance on reducing its bond-buying program and the impending specter of rising interest rates. Additionally, worries regarding the impact of the Delta variant of COVID-19 on the global economic recovery added to the prevailing unease.

Thursday’s rebound in the stock market was accompanied by a relaxation of selling pressure and a respite for U.S. Treasury yields. This newfound stability allowed equities to regain some lost ground as investors looked forward to Friday’s release of the crucial U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data.

One of the key events on the horizon is the release of the U.S. PCE inflation measure for the month of August, which is expected to hold steady at 0.2%. Investors are closely monitoring inflation data as it plays a pivotal role in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions and can have a significant impact on market sentiment.

In addition to inflation concerns, there has been growing apprehension among investors regarding the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown driven by partisan politics. These fears, coupled with worries about a potential economic recession, have weighed heavily on equity markets.

As the month of September draws to a close, investors are bracing for continued volatility and uncertainty. The path forward for U.S. equities remains uncertain, with market participants closely monitoring economic data releases, central bank statements, and geopolitical developments that could shape the trajectory of financial markets in the coming months.

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US Yields Surge, Asia Stocks Fall Amid Fed’s Hawkish Stance

US Yields Surge, Asia Stocks Fall Amid Fed’s Hawkish Stance

US Treasury yields hit a fresh 16-year high, reaching 4.552%, marking levels not seen since October 2007. This surge was driven by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks signaling that interest rates would remain elevated for an extended period. Consequently, the US dollar held near a 10-month high, with the US dollar index reaching 106.10, its highest since November 30, before settling at 106.00.

In response to the soaring yields and a strong dollar, Asia-Pacific stock markets faced declines. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped by 0.33%. Tokyo’s Nikkei fell by 0.7%, South Korea’s Kospi slid 1%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.3%. Mainland Chinese blue chips opened flat.

US stock futures pointed to a 0.3% decline, following a 0.4% rise in the S&P 500 overnight. Traders now consider the likelihood of another quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike by January to be a toss-up, and they have postponed expectations for rate cuts until the summer.

Westpac strategists anticipate further increases in yields in the near term, which would also strengthen the dollar. They foresee 10-year yields potentially peaking around 4.75% in the coming weeks. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that the risk of persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target outweighed concerns about the Fed’s tightening policy hindering the economy.

The US economy’s relative outperformance, compared to the stagnation in the eurozone and Britain, has supported the dollar against those currencies. The euro edged down to US$1.05855, nearing its overnight low of US$1.0575, last seen in mid-March. Sterling also slipped to US$1.22065, approaching Monday’s six-month low of US$1.21945. The dollar remained near an 11-month peak of 148.97 yen, raising the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening in the currency markets.

Gold remained relatively stable at around US$1,915, after falling from above US$1,947 over the past week. Crude oil continued to weaken due to concerns that central banks would keep interest rates elevated for an extended period, potentially impacting fuel demand. Brent crude futures were down 11 cents at US$93.18 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded 1 cent lower at US$89.67.

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US Dollar Stabilizes After Recent Losses

Stocks Plummet, US Yields Surge, Dollar Gains Momentum as Federal Reserve Adopts Hawkish Stance

Stocks Plummet, US Yields Surge, Dollar Gains Momentum as Federal Reserve Adopts Hawkish Stance

Asia-Pacific shares followed the downward trend set by Wall Street on Thursday, as investors interpreted the latest policy statements from the US Federal Reserve as a signal of higher and longer interest rates. 

The broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, MSCI’s (.MIAPJ0000PUS), was down 0.4% in early afternoon Hong Kong time. Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) slid 0.6%, China’s blue-chip (.CSI300) dipped 0.6%, and Hong Kong’s benchmark shed 1.3%.

The yield on two-year US Treasury notes rose to a 17-year high of 5.1970% on Thursday morning and hovered around 5.18% by early afternoon. 

Similarly, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reached its highest level in a decade, in line with the US 10-year Treasury yields, which hit a 16-year peak at 4.4310%.

“We anticipate further increases in bond yields in the near future due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position,” said Tai Hui, APAC chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. He added that while high interest rates can cool the economy, they remain positive on long-term government bonds, investment grade corporate debt, as well as growth and tech stocks.

Ben Luk, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets, noted that the overall tone of the Fed’s latest meeting was not excessively hawkish but there were two surprises. The forecasts for 2024 were slightly higher than expected, and Fed statements indicated that macroeconomic growth would hold up despite higher rates. 

The US central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday and projected an increase by the end of the year, stating that monetary policy will likely be much tighter through 2024 than previously estimated. The median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of the year is now 5.1%, compared to the 4.6% estimated in June. 

The upward revisions to rate forecasts prompted a rebound in the US dollar, pushed US Treasury yields to multi-year highs, flattened the yield curve, and caused stocks to tumble.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of rivals, reached its highest level since March 9 at 105.59 on Thursday, bringing the yen close to its weakest point since November. The pound fell to fresh multi-month lows following an inflation report on Wednesday, raising questions about whether the Bank of England will also hold rates.

Major stock futures in Asia experienced fluctuations in early afternoon trading. US stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, were down 0.3%. Similarly, the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures, German DAX futures, and FTSE futures all declined by approximately 1%.

Investors are now closely watching monetary policy decisions from Indonesia, the Philippines, and Taiwan on Thursday, while the Bank of England’s decision will also provide guidance to Asian markets.

Oil prices fell in Asian trade following the largest decline in a month in the previous session. US crude dropped 0.72% to $89.01 a barrel, and Brent crude fell to $92.87 per barrel. 

Gold remained slightly lower, with spot gold trading at $1,927.96 an ounce.

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Asian Stocks Dip Amid Cautious Mood, Focus on Fed Rate Decision

Asian Stocks Dip Amid Cautious Mood, Focus on Fed Rate Decision

Asian stock markets faced a mild setback on Tuesday, marked by cautious sentiment among investors as they awaited the forthcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. This heightened sense of caution stems from growing concerns that the Federal Reserve’s commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period could potentially exert a negative impact on consumers in the United States.

As of the most recent market data, the Shanghai Composite Index in China managed a slight uptick of 0.02%, reaching a level of 3,126 points. Meanwhile, the Shenzhen Component Index experienced a 0.73% decline, settling at 10,126 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index recorded a meager 0.02% gain, bringing it to 17,933 points. Conversely, South Korea’s Kospi Index faced a 0.41% decline, and Japan’s Nikkei Index witnessed a more pronounced drop of 0.99%.

Despite some positive developments within China’s real estate sector, these developments failed to generate significant upward momentum in market sentiment on Tuesday. Notably, Country Garden secured bondholder approval for the last of eight local notes, for which it had sought an extension of repayment deadlines. Similarly, Sunac gained approval from its creditors for its debt restructuring plan.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is poised to announce its interest rate policy later in the week, specifically on Friday. Market observers are closely monitoring signals from the BoJ, which appear to suggest a potential exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy sooner than initially anticipated. Recent remarks by Governor Kazuo Ueda have fueled speculation and contributed to a notable surge in interest rates.

Looking ahead, market participants are eagerly anticipating the Federal Reserve’s impending interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Following this decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference, during which he may offer insights into the central bank’s ‘dot plot’ projections and inflation expectations. As the week progresses, the financial community’s focus will shift toward the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting, also slated for Friday.

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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China’s February New Bank Loans Decrease Beyond Expectations, Hitting Record Low Lending Growth

China’s February New Bank Loans Decrease Beyond Expectations, Hitting Record Low Lending Growth

In China, new bank lending in February experienced a sharper decline than anticipated from a record high in January, as the central bank continues efforts to stimulate the country’s sluggish economic growth and counter deflationary trends.

According to Reuters’ calculations based on People’s Bank of China data, Chinese banks issued 1.45 trillion yuan ($201.5 billion) in new yuan loans in February, a significant drop from January and below the expectations of analysts. Year-over-year growth of outstanding yuan loans slowed to a record low of 10.1%, compared to 10.4% in January, and fell short of the projected 10.2%.

The decrease in February’s lending was expected as Chinese banks typically issue more loans at the beginning of the year to attract high-quality customers and gain market share. Additionally, the Lunar New Year holiday, which occurred in February this year as opposed to late January in 2023, likely impacted lending activity.

Analysts had forecasted new yuan loans for February to decrease to 1.50 trillion yuan, down from 4.92 trillion yuan in the previous month and against 1.81 trillion yuan a year earlier.

ING analysts noted that aggregate financing and new loans were weaker than expected due to limited high-quality borrowing demand, indicating a modest immediate impact from the February cut in the required reserve ratio (RRR). Despite signals of further RRR cuts from the PBOC, a lack of high-quality borrowing demand might reduce the effectiveness of these measures in stimulating the economy.

In the first two months of 2024, Chinese banks made 6.37 trillion yuan in new yuan loans, according to central bank data. Household loans, mostly mortgages, contracted by 590.7 billion yuan in February, after an increase of 980.1 billion yuan in January. Corporate loans also decreased to 1.57 trillion yuan from 3.86 trillion yuan.

China’s economic growth target for 2024 is around 5%, a goal many analysts consider challenging without significant additional stimulus. Both consumer and corporate confidence have remained weak since a post-pandemic upsurge faded early in 2023.

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng stated there is still room for RRR cuts, following a substantial 50-basis point reduction effective from February 5. The central bank also announced a major cut in a key mortgage reference rate last month to support the property market and the overall economy.

Broad M2 money supply grew by 8.7% year-over-year, slightly below the 8.8% forecast but consistent with the pace in January.

Total social financing (TSF) growth, a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, decelerated to 9.0% in February from a year earlier, down from 9.5% in January. With China setting the 2024 quota for local government special bond issuance at 3.9 trillion yuan and planning to issue 1 trillion yuan in special ultra-long-term treasury bonds, increased fiscal support is expected to boost government borrowing. However, weak private sector credit demand continues to pose significant challenges.

TSF, which includes various forms of financing beyond conventional bank lending, fell to 1.56 trillion yuan in February from 6.5 trillion yuan in January, falling short of the expected 2.22 trillion yuan.

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Major Currency Pairs Remain Stable Before Crucial US Economic Data Release

Major Currency Pairs Remain Stable Before Crucial US Economic Data Release

Throughout the latter half of the week, major currency pairs have been exhibiting fluctuations within narrow margins. Following a slight downturn on Wednesday, the US Dollar (USD) Index has maintained a subdued profile, hovering just below the 103.00 mark in Thursday’s European morning. Market participants are keenly awaiting the release of the US producer inflation and retail sales data for February, which are poised to offer fresh directional impetus.

Concurrently, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield has seen a resurgence, crossing back over the 4.2% threshold for the first time in more than a week. As of early Thursday, the yield steadies at around 4.2%, while US stock index futures exhibit a mixed performance, reflecting the volatility observed in Wednesday’s market.

This week, the US Dollar’s performance has varied across different major currencies. Notably, the Dollar recorded its strongest performance against the Japanese Yen. A recent report from Reuters highlighted that Japan’s largest industrial union, UA Zensen, announced record-high pay increases by 231 firms since 2013. In response, the USD/JPY pair has been oscillating within a tight range below the 148.00 level, closing almost unchanged on Wednesday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) experienced a modest upswing on Wednesday, breaking a two-day losing streak and remaining consolidated just above 0.6600 early Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) gained some ground and ended Wednesday on a positive note. However, the pair began to retreat slightly after encountering resistance near 1.0950. In the absence of significant data releases from the Eurozone, the market’s focus will likely shift to any statements from European Central Bank (ECB) officials.

The British Pound (GBP/USD) is experiencing difficulty in establishing a clear direction, continuing its lateral movement around the 1.2800 mark in Thursday’s European trading session.

In the commodities sector, gold managed to recoup most of its losses from Tuesday during Wednesday’s session. However, it struggled to gain further upward momentum in the face of increasing US yields. At last observation, Gold (XAU/USD) was trading marginally lower, just below $2,170.

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Australian Dollar Struggles as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of US PPI Release

Australian Dollar Gains Support from Rising ASX 200 Despite Stronger US Dollar

Australian Dollar Gains Support from Rising ASX 200 Despite Stronger US Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is showing signs of consolidation, hinting at a potential recovery from its recent losses as of Wednesday. This comes amidst mixed market signals, including a positive performance from the S&P/ASX 200 Index and contrasting pressures from lower commodity prices.

For the second consecutive day, the S&P/ASX 200 Index has been on the rise, mirroring the overnight gains observed on Wall Street. This upward trend in the Australian stock market is a reflection of investor confidence and a generally positive economic outlook, which typically supports the strength of the national currency. However, the Australian Dollar faces countervailing pressures due to a decline in commodity prices. Australia, being a major exporter of natural resources, is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in these markets. Lower commodity prices can have a dampening effect on the AUD, as they may reduce the country’s trade revenue and economic prospects.

The current investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic, spurred by the release of encouraging Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States (US). This optimism is, however, tempered by the recent performance of the AUD against the US Dollar (USD). On Tuesday, the AUD suffered losses against the USD, driven largely by a stronger-than-expected US CPI report. The report has diminished the likelihood of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstering the Greenback. This strengthened USD poses potential challenges for the AUD/USD currency pair, as a robust US Dollar often means weaker performance for other major currencies.

Traders and investors are now likely to redirect their focus towards upcoming economic indicators from the US, particularly the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data, which are scheduled for release on Thursday. These data points are significant as they provide insights into the health of the US economy. The Core PPI offers a measure of the average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding food and energy, which are more volatile. Retail Sales data, on the other hand, is a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a substantial portion of overall economic activity in the US.

The outcomes of these reports could have significant implications for the Fed’s monetary policy decisions, and consequently, influence the AUD/USD exchange rate dynamics. As investors and market analysts anticipate these releases, there is an air of cautious observation in the market, with stakeholders keen to understand how these developments will shape the near-term trajectory of the Australian Dollar in relation to the US Dollar and the broader global economy.

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XRP Poised for Weekly Drop as Investors Pocket $370 Million in Profits

XRP Poised for Weekly Drop as Investors Pocket $370 Million in Profits

The price of XRP, a popular altcoin, experienced a downturn, reaching $0.62 on Friday. Despite this drop, it managed to stay above the crucial $0.60 mark, a psychologically significant level for traders and investors. This recent price movement has been primarily attributed to increased profit-taking activities among XRP holders. Heading towards the week’s close, XRP seems poised to end with a slight loss, marking a mild correction following its recent price surge. This shift in market behavior comes just ahead of a significant event – the anticipated March 22 deadline in the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit, a key factor influencing the altcoin’s market dynamics.

Since the beginning of March 2024, XRP holders have reportedly cashed out profits amounting to around $370 million. This substantial withdrawal of profits is one of the primary drivers behind the recent price adjustments. On-chain data provided by Santiment has highlighted consistent profit-taking by XRP holders throughout the month, especially notable as the altcoin reached its monthly peak of $0.6685 on Tuesday.

Further analysis reveals an uptick in on-chain activity for XRP. Notable metrics showing this increase include a rise in Active Addresses and a surge in large transactions, specifically those valued at $100,000 or higher. Both these indicators have witnessed significant growth over the past week. Generally, such an increase in active addresses and high-value transactions can signal either bullish or bearish trends for an asset’s price. However, in the context of XRP, the spike in transactions following its recent price rally suggests that larger investors or ‘whales’ may be looking to capitalize on the higher rates to sell off their holdings and secure profits.

This pattern of whale behavior, coupled with the overarching climate of profit-taking among regular holders, paints a picture of a market in a state of flux. As XRP navigates through these changes, market watchers are closely monitoring the asset’s performance, particularly with the looming legal deadline in the SEC lawsuit which could have further implications for its price and investor sentiment.

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Currency Market Stabilizes Ahead of Powell Speech, Bitcoin Gains Momentum

Currency Market Stabilizes Ahead of Powell Speech, Bitcoin Gains Momentum

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar remained stable as traders awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony and upcoming key events, including a European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and U.S. jobs data.

Bitcoin showed renewed momentum in the cryptocurrency market, though it did not surpass its recent record high achieved in a tumultuous overnight session.

The dollar’s movement was restricted, reflecting a slight decline after data revealed a minor slowdown in U.S. services industry growth last month. The upcoming February U.S. jobs report, due on Friday, is anticipated to significantly influence market expectations regarding interest rates, especially if employment figures exceed forecasts.

Powell’s testimony before Congress, focusing on the state of the U.S. economy, is expected to confirm the Fed’s intention to analyze more data before considering any rate cuts. The Fed chief might also discuss January’s strong core inflation, which analysts believe won’t alter the market’s expectation of a rate cut starting in June.

Currently, the market shows about a 60% likelihood of a June rate cut, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. The dollar index stood around 103.76, demonstrating its strength against six major currencies.

The euro remained stable at $1.0855, with the market anticipating the ECB’s rate decision. The bank is expected to maintain rates at 4% and provide updates on economic projections and hints about potential rate cuts.

Sterling was steady at $1.27050 ahead of the British budget announcement. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar recovered slightly, dismissing GDP data that showed only 0.2% growth in the fourth quarter and strengthened the case for rate cuts. It was last up 0.24% at $0.65195.

The New Zealand dollar also rose, gaining 0.16% to $0.60960, despite reaching a three-week low earlier. Conversely, the dollar fell 0.12% against the yen, settling at 149.86.

Attention is also focused on Bitcoin, which recently soared to a new high before sharply retreating. It was last up 4.11% at $65,921, fueled by investments in U.S. spot exchange-traded crypto products and anticipation of global interest rate reductions.

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Stable Near High, Amid Fed Rate-Cut Speculation and Market Softness

Gold Price Stable Near High, Amid Fed Rate-Cut Speculation and Market Softness

During the early hours of Tuesday’s European trading session, the Gold price, measured in XAU/USD, maintained a steady range, reflecting a period of consolidation after its recent significant surge to a three-month high near the $2,120 mark, achieved the previous day. This stability in Gold’s price comes as traders display caution, choosing to wait for clearer indications regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future interest rate decisions before committing to new market positions. Consequently, all eyes are set on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s two-day congressional testimony, which is slated to begin on Wednesday.

The week also brings a host of critical U.S. economic data releases coinciding with the start of a new month. Among these, the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due for release on Friday, stands out as a key determinant of the U.S. Dollar’s (USD) trajectory and, by extension, its influence on the precious metal’s dynamics. The anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s possible rate cuts starting in June has somewhat subdued USD bullish sentiment, indirectly bolstering support for the non-yielding Gold.

Adding to the mix is the slight weakening in global risk appetite, fueled by ongoing geopolitical tensions and growing concerns over an economic slowdown in China. These factors are contributing to the appeal of Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, under the XAU/USD symbol. Market participants are now keenly awaiting the U.S. ISM Services PMI data, which could offer short-term trading opportunities in the gold market.

Despite these varied influences, the fundamental landscape indicates a predominantly upward trajectory for Gold prices. The prevailing economic and geopolitical conditions suggest that any downward corrections in Gold’s price are likely to be short-lived and viewed as buying opportunities by investors. This perspective reinforces the notion that Gold remains a resilient and attractive investment amidst the current global economic uncertainties.

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Japanese Yen Dips Versus USD as BoJ Uncertainty Lingers; Tokyo CPI in Focus Tuesday

Japanese Yen Dips Versus USD as BoJ Uncertainty Lingers; Tokyo CPI in Focus Tuesday

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is experiencing renewed pressure after a slight recovery from its year-to-date low on Friday, as it enters the European trading session with a weaker stance against the US Dollar (USD). This development comes in the wake of remarks from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who emphasized on Friday that it was premature to declare a win over inflation concerns. This cautionary stance from the BoJ, coupled with signs of a technical recession in Japan, indicates a potential delay in the central bank’s shift towards tighter monetary policies. Such a delay is contributing to the diminishing strength of the JPY.

Amid these circumstances, there are reports suggesting that the Japanese government is contemplating officially declaring an end to the long-standing deflationary period. Market participants are also closely watching the potential impact of another significant wage increase in Japan. This increase could potentially initiate a wage-price spiral, compelling the BoJ to reconsider and possibly retract its current ultra-accommodative monetary policy. Despite these factors, a subdued tone in the equity markets is expected to moderate the losses for the JPY and restrain any significant appreciation of the USD/JPY pair, especially given the current muted demand for the USD.

Investors and traders are exhibiting caution, opting to refrain from making bold directional bets until the release of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday. This report is anticipated to provide valuable insights into Japan’s inflationary trends and could influence the monetary policy outlook of the BoJ. In addition to the Tokyo CPI, the global financial market is also bracing for a series of pivotal events later in the week. These include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday, as well as crucial US economic data releases at the beginning of the new month. Of particular interest will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, a key indicator of the US labor market’s health.

The combination of these upcoming events and data releases will likely offer fresh perspectives on the Federal Reserve’s trajectory regarding interest rate adjustments. Such insights are expected to significantly impact the dynamics of the USD/JPY currency pair, as investors weigh the implications of monetary policy shifts in both the US and Japan.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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