XAU/USD bears approach $1,930 support on upbeat US Dollar
XAU/USD bears approach $1,930 support on upbeat US Dollar Gold Price (XAU/USD) stays on the bear’s radar for the second consecutive day as the precious metal renews intraday low near $1,945, extending the post-NFP losses amid to early Monday amid firmer US Dollar and the Treasury bond yields. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) […]
EUR/USD: Planning for Friday’s NFP Volatility
EUR/USD: Planning for Friday’s NFP Volatility EUR/USD started June with a 100-pip rally after a volatile end to May. Given the selloff we saw last month, a retracement in early June was to be expected, although I did think a 1.0600 retest might come first. So what should we watch ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll […]
US and Taiwan Set to Sign the First Deal Under a New Trade Talks Framework
US and Taiwan Set to Sign the First Deal Under a New Trade Talks Framework Core bonds enjoyed another solid bid yesterday, further unwinding ‘hawkish sentiment’ that reigned since mid-May. Chinese inspired risk-off and softer than expected national CPI data from Germany (HICP 6.3% Y/Y from 7.6%) and France (6.0% from 6.9M%) supported the move. […]
One Step Closer to Debt Ceiling Deal – And a Fed Hike
One Step Closer to Debt Ceiling Deal – And a Fed Hike The holiday shortened trading week starts tense but on an optimistic note as US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finally reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling. The deal must get approval in a congressional vote on Wednesday. US […]
US Inflation Expectations Jump, Earnings Season Kicks
US Inflation Expectations Jump, Earnings Season Kicks Despite the softer-than-expected inflation data released earlier last week, US inflation expectations shocked investors at last Friday’s release; the 1-year expectation jumped from 3.6% to 4.6% due to the surprise surge in energy prices. The expectation was a further easing to 3.5%. And energy bulls remain in charge […]
Fed Minutes Showed Recent Banking Turmoil May Result in Lower
Fed Minutes Showed Recent Banking Turmoil May Result in Lower The minutes of the March 21-22, 2023, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting reaffirmed that price and financial stability are of paramount importance to the Fed. Regarding the economy, Committee members noted that “recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and output. At the […]
Bank of Canada to hold rates steady
Bank of Canada to hold rates steady Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely anticipated to maintain its pause this week, leaving interest rates unchanged at a 15-year high of 4.50%. Governor Macklem has emphasized that there’s no need for additional rate hikes if the economy unfolds according to central bank’s projections, which forecast stalling growth […]
EUR/USD struggles to reach yearly high ahead of NFP report
EUR/USD struggles to reach yearly high ahead of NFP report EUR/USD is struggling to test the yearly high (1.1033) as it fails to continue the series of higher highs and lows from the beginning of the week, and the U.S. labour market data (NFP) report may weigh on the exchange rate as employment is expected […]
Australian Dollar Dips After RBA Leave Rates Unchanged
Australian Dollar Dips After RBA Leave Rates Unchanged The Australian Dollar slipped slightly in the aftermath of the RBA standing still on rates for the first time since May 2022. The RBA maintained some flexibility and didn’t rule out future hikes. In the accompanying statement on monetary policy, they said, “The Board expects that some […]
RBA Board opens the door to a pause in April
RBA Board opens the door to a pause in April The Minutes emphasize a high degree of uncertainty; do not take into account the global banking disruptions; and point to a pause in April. The Minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting on March 7 highlight that unlike recent meetings when several policy options were […]
Cautious Trade to start the week, EUR/AUD Focused
Cautious Trade to start the week, EUR/AUD Focused Australia’s ASX 200 index fell by -96.3 points and currently trades at 6,898.50. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has fallen by -360.97 points and currently trades at 26,972.82. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has fallen by -534.15 points and currently trades at 18,984.44 China’s A50 index has fallen […]
ECB Hike 50bps but Euro Slips
ECB Hike 50bps but Euro Slips Dovish rate hike by ECB EUR falls across the board Attention turns to Lagarde at ECB presser The ECB had set itself up to disappoint some market participants after talking up 50 basis points. As it turned out, and despite all the troubles in the banking sector, it stuck […]
AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired By Failure To Test
AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired By Failure To Test AUD/USD appears to be reversing course ahead of the 200-Day SMA as it fails to clear the week high, but data prints coming out of Australia may prop up the exchange rate as job growth is expected to rebound in February. AUD/USD largely mirrors the weakness across […]
Sentiment Improves as China Data Boosts Hopes of 5% Growth
Sentiment Improves as China Data Boosts Hopes of 5% Growth China’s banks lent a record 4.9 trillion yen in January as the economy reopened from lockdowns. And there was some anticipation to see whether the new loans were making their way through the economy to aid the governments GDP target of around 5% this year. […]
Gold Price Rallies As SVB Failure Casts Doubt for Fed Rate Hikes
Gold Price Rallies As SVB Failure Casts Doubt for Fed Rate Hikes The price of gold carves a series of higher highs and lows following the failed attempt to test the February low of $1805, and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) may continue to heighten the appeal of bullion as market participants scale […]
Preview of NZ Q4 GDP
Preview of NZ Q4 GDP The expectation is 0.2% fall in GDP for the December Quarter, following two quarters of extremely strong growth. This does not necessarily mark the start of a recession. GDP data has been choppy since Covid, and the details don’t tell a consistent story about whether monetary policy is biting. Nevertheless, […]
USD/JPY Outlook Mired by Failure to Test December High
USD/JPY Outlook Mired by Failure to Test December High USD/JPY appears to be reversing ahead of the December 2022 high 138.18 as it fails to hold above 200-day SMA, but the Bank Of Japan interest rate decision may curb the recent decline in the exchange rate as the central bank is expected to retain its […]
EUR/USD Takes Out February Low Ahead of US Jobs Report
EUR/USD Takes Out February Low Ahead of US Jobs Report EUR/USD takes out the February low following the failed attempts to trade back above the 50-day SMA, and developments coming out of the US may keep the exchange rate under pressure as the NFP report is anticipated to show another rise in employment. EUR/USD fails […]