AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired By Failure To Test

AUD/USD appears to be reversing course ahead of the 200-Day SMA as it fails to clear the week high, but data prints coming out of Australia may prop up the exchange rate as job growth is expected to rebound in February.

AUD/USD largely mirrors the weakness across the commodity bloc currencies as it gives back the advance from the monthly low 0.6565, and the exchange rate may track the negative slope in the long-term moving average as the Reserve Bank of Australia seems to be nearing the end of its hiking-cycle.

The update to Australia’s Employment report may generate a bullish reaction in AUD/USD as the economy is anticipated to add 48.5k jobs in February, and a positive development may push the RBA to pursue a more restrictive policy as the Board expects that further tightening of monetary policy will be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target.

In turn, AUD/USD may face headwinds ahead of the next RBA rate decision as Governor Lowe and Co. prepare Australian households and businesses for a wait-and-see approach, and the exchange rate may struggle to retain the advance from the monthly low 0.6565 amid the failed attempt to clear the week high 0.6717.

AUD/USD bounced back from a fresh yearly low during the previous week to keep the Relative Strength Index out of oversold territory, but the exchange rate appears to be reversing course ahead of the 200-Day SMA amid the failed attempt to clear the week high.

AUD/USD may track the negative slope in the long-term moving average following the dip below the 0.6600 handle, with a move below the monthly low opening up the 0.6520 to 0.6550 area.

Failure to test the monthly low may keep AUD/USD within the March range, with a move above 0.6660 raising the scope for another run at the long-term moving average.