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EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens

EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens; FOMC Minutes in Spotlight

The EUR/USD pair slid to around 1.1705 during Wednesday’s Asian session, weighed down by renewed strength in the US Dollar. The Euro came under pressure following fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump, which unsettled global markets and added to investor caution. 

Trump reignited global trade concerns by proposing a 50% tariff on copper imports and hinted at possible duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. While he mentioned that negotiations with both the European Union and China are progressing well, he also warned that a tariff notice to the EU could be issued within days. This uncertainty has dented risk sentiment, putting the Euro under additional stress. 

Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, due later today. Market participants are hoping for more clarity on the Fed’s rate path, especially amid growing expectations of monetary easing. 

At its June meeting, the Fed held interest rates steady, maintaining the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%—a level unchanged since December. However, markets are now pricing in a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end, potentially beginning as early as October. 

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Australian Dollar Gains as Risk Sentiment Improves, RBA Decision in Focus

Australian Dollar Rises Amid Risk-On Sentiment, Focus Shifts to RBA Rate Decision

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its third straight session of gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following US President Donald Trump’s move to postpone the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. A weaker USD following disappointing US retail sales data has further supported the AUD/USD pair, reigniting speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates later this year despite persistent inflation concerns.

Yet, the AUD’s gains could be capped before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy announcement on Tuesday, as mounting speculation of a cut in interest rates deters sentiment. The RBA is widely expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10%, marking the first rate reduction in four years.

US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Lower Treasury Yields

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down for the third consecutive session, bogged down by weaker US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the DXY is trading around 106.70, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields at 4.26% and 4.47%, respectively.

Statistics released by the US Census Bureau on Friday indicated that US Retail Sales decreased 0.9% in January, a reversal from a revised 0.7% rise in December (earlier reported as 0.4%). The decrease was deeper than the market expectation of a 0.1% decline.

Conversely, Core PPI inflation in the US increased to 3.6% YoY in January, above expectations of 3.3%, though marginally less than the revised 3.7% (initially published as 3.5%). This has consolidated expectations that the Fed will push rate cuts until the second part of the year.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% YoY in January, beating expectations of 2.9%, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) went up to 3.3% from 3.2%, beating expectations of 3.1%. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose 0.5% in January compared to 0.4% in December, with core CPI rising to 0.4% from 0.2% in the same period.

Fed Officials Signal a Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts

In his semi-annual report to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that policymakers “do not need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates, citing a strong labor market and robust economic growth. Powell also warned that Trump’s tariff policies could exert upward pressure on inflation, making it harder for the central bank to lower rates.

A Reuters poll of economists now indicates the Fed will wait until next quarter to cut rates, citing ongoing inflationary concerns. Although previously, some analysts anticipated a March rate cut; the majority now sees at least one rate cut by June, but opinions remain divided.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack echoed this sentiment, saying that maintaining rates at current levels for a long time is probably the right thing to do. Hammack added that a patient strategy will enable the Fed to evaluate economic conditions before altering policy.

Australian Dollar Targets Upper Range Near 0.6400

The AUD/USD currency pair quotes at 0.6360 on Monday, with an uptrend in a rising channel formation. This is indicative of a bullish market inclination, which is also complemented by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 50.

On the upside, the pair could test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6380, followed by the psychological level of 0.6400.

Major levels of support are the nine-day EMA at 0.6310, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6294. A fall below these levels may erode short-term momentum, possibly pulling the pair down to the lower boundary of the rising channel at 0.6270.

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Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Jobless Claims

Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Holds Gains Ahead of Jobless Claims

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as trade balance data came in below average than expected. Furthermore, risk-off sentiment, fueled by rising US-China trade tensions, weighs on the AUD/USD.

In December, Australia’s trade surplus fell to $5,085 million, falling short of the 7,000 million anticipated and down from $6,792 million the previous year. While exports increased by 1.1% month on month, this was a decrease from November’s 4.2% increase, while imports increased by 5.9% month on month, much more than the previous 1.4% gain.

US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Australian Dollar

Investors are still focused on the current trade stagnation between the United States and China, Australia’s top trading partner. China replied to the United States’ new 10% tax, which went into force on Tuesday, causing global market concern. Regarding the situation, President Trump announced on Monday that he intends to engage with China within the next 24 hours. However, he cautioned that failure to achieve an agreement might result in “very, very substantial” tariffs.

Meanwhile, China’s Commerce Ministry imposed a 15% tax on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, as well as an additional 10% levy on crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos. As a countermeasure, China has implemented export limits on important minerals such as tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, and molybdenum, citing national security concerns.

Amid escalating trade tensions, the Financial Times writes that Chinese firms are quickening preparations to relocate production overseas, mainly to the Middle East, in order to reduce tariff impacts. Some exporters are also considering passing on prices to US consumers or expanding into new markets.

US Dollar Holds Firm Amid Mixed Economic Data

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, remains stable near 107.50, putting further downward pressure on the AUD/USD. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a weaker-than-expected US Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January, below the market forecast of 54.3.

Investors now focus on Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a key economic indicator that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.

The dollar fell on Wednesday, following a poor US Services PMI report. The ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, missing the market forecast of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are anticipating Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Pulls Back From 0.6300, Eyes Key Support

The AUD/USD pair hovers near 0.6280 on Thursday, retreating from the 0.6300 level. However, sustained trading above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) suggests short-term bullish momentum remains intact. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also holding above 50, reinforcing the bullish bias.

On the upside, the pair might target 0.6330, its seven-week high from January 24.

Immediate support comes from the nine-day EMA near 0.6254, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6249.

A breach below these levels might weaken the bullish structure, potentially sending the pair below 0.6087, its lowest level since April 2020, which was recorded on February 3.

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Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

The Australian Dollar (AUD) falls for the seventh consecutive day as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens following President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Market volatility remains high as investors monitor the continuing US-China trade talks. Trump signaled he may speak with Chinese officials within the next 24 hours, warning that if a deal isn’t reached, tariffs on China will be “very, very substantial.”

Trump also announced a 30-day tariff relief for Mexico and Canada after their nations agreed to send 10,000 troops to the US border to battle drug trafficking. This move follows the introduction of 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods just two days before.

Chinese Exporters Seek Alternatives

According to the Financial Times, Chinese manufacturers are speeding up plans to transfer production offshore in reaction to US tariffs. Some companies are considering relocating to regions such as the Middle East, while others are looking into passing costs on to US customers or entering new markets.

RBA Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on AUD

The AUD faces additional pressure amid growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut rates in February. The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since November 2023, stressing that inflation must return to its 2%-3% target range before easing policy.

Analysts at Westpac continue to forecast 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, with the market pricing in a more conservative outlook. ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and National Australia Bank (NAB) all anticipate a 25-basis-point (bps) cut in February, with NAB recently revising its forecast forward from May.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Developments

The US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilizes around 108.70 after erasing gains from the previous session. Recent US economic data support the greenback, with ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, exceeding expectations of 49.8.

Inflation indicators remain in focus as the Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 0.3% MoM in December, up from 0.1% in November. Annual PCE inflation increased to 2.6%, while core PCE held steady at 2.8% YoY for the third straight month.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, highlighted that further policy adjustments would be required if there was clear evidence of inflation advance or labor market weakness. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently argued for new uniform taxes on US imports, beginning at 2.5% and progressively increasing—a departure from his previous stance that tariffs cause inflation.

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

AUD/USD trades around 0.6210 on Tuesday, remaining within a descending channel pattern on the daily chart, signaling a bearish bias. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recovering toward the 50 level, suggesting weakening downside momentum. A breakout above the channel, combined with an RSI move above 50, could indicate a shift toward a bullish outlook.

On the downside, the pair may test the descending channel’s lower boundary near 0.6150. A break below this level could drive AUD/USD toward 0.6087, its lowest point since April 2020.

AUD/USD is currently testing its initial resistance, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6225, which aligns with the channel’s upper limit. A decisive move over this level could fuel bullish optimism.

 

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Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum

Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum; USD/JPY Struggles Below 154.50

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen in early European trading on Thursday, pushing USD/JPY further below 154.50 and closer to its one-month low from earlier this week. Market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again by year-end continue to support the JPY. Additionally, a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields, narrowing the US-Japan yield differential, has further boosted demand for the lower-yielding Yen.

However, concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may limit aggressive JPY buying. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish pause on Wednesday has bolstered the US Dollar (USD), which could provide some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders are now looking ahead to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which may increase market volatility and drive further demand for the safe-haven Yen. Additionally, the Advance US Q4 GDP report could introduce short-term trading opportunities.

JPY Gains on Hawkish BoJ Sentiment Amid Market Uncertainty

  • Minutes from the BoJ’s December meeting, released Wednesday, indicated discussions on using neutral interest rate estimates to guide future rate hikes.
  • Former BoJ board member Makoto Sakurai stated on Tuesday that steady rate increases remain feasible due to rising wages, sustained inflation, and strong economic growth.
  • The Federal Reserve, as expected, held rates steady after its two-day meeting and signaled no immediate plans for rate cuts.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a patient stance, stating there is no urgency to adjust policy and reaffirming that rates will stay elevated amid concerns over Trump’s trade policies, which could fuel inflation.
  • The 10-year US Treasury yield has struggled to sustain gains post-FOMC due to uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s economic policies.
  • Reports from Asahi newspaper indicate that Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is finalizing plans for a February 7 meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington.
  • The ECB’s policy decision later today is expected to introduce further volatility, alongside the Advance US Q4 GDP print.

USD/JPY at Risk of Retesting Monthly Lows Near 153.70

The USD/JPY pair faced renewed selling pressure near the 156.00 level, breaking below the key 155.00 psychological mark, confirming a multi-month ascending channel breakdown. Momentum indicators on the daily chart suggest continued downside movement, making a retest of the 153.70 region—a multi-week low touched on Monday—a strong possibility.

Key resistance levels for a rebound:

  • 155.00 round figure
  • 155.35-155.40 region
  • 156.00 psychological level

Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling pressure near these levels. A sustained break above 156.25 could trigger short-covering, potentially lifting USD/JPY toward 156.70-156.75, with further resistance at 157.00 and 157.60.

For now, the bias remains bearish, with further losses expected if the pair stays below 154.00. Traders will closely watch US data and global central bank policy updates for the next directional move.

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Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold price (XAU/USD) faces selling pressure at the beginning of the week, pulling back from its highest level since late October, near the $2,786 mark touched on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) has staged a modest recovery following its worst weekly performance since November 2023, which has weighed on the precious metal. However, the broader market dynamics remain supportive of a bullish outlook, suggesting potential dip-buying opportunities at lower price levels.

Market Sentiment Dampened by Trade Tensions and Fed Speculation

Risk sentiment has deteriorated due to US President Donald Trump’s recent decision to impose tariffs on all imports from Colombia, reigniting fears of a trade war. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates twice by year-end, combined with a flight to safe-haven assets, have triggered a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields. This decline could limit aggressive gains in the USD, potentially cushioning the downside for gold, a non-yielding asset.

Gold Under Pressure from USD Recovery, but Downside Remains Limited

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of currencies, rose nearly 0.25% on Monday, driven by revived concerns over US trade policies. President Trump ordered 25% emergency tariffs on all Colombian imports following the country’s refusal to accept deported migrants from the US, with a threat to raise tariffs to 50% next week. Moreover, reports suggest that Trump’s advisors are considering imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1.

In a recent update, the White House confirmed that Colombia has agreed to Trump’s demands, including the unrestricted acceptance of deported individuals. Meanwhile, Trump has reiterated his call for immediate interest rate cuts, fueling speculation of further easing by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The resulting decline in US Treasury yields may act as a headwind for the USD, potentially limiting the extent of gold’s pullback.

Traders Eye Economic Data for Further Clues

Market participants will turn their focus to key US economic data, including Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, for fresh impetus during the US trading session.

Gold Price Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

Gold’s recent decline may attract dip-buying near the $2,736 support zone, as the technical setup remains bullish. Any further slide below the $2,750-2,748 range could find solid support near $2,736, with additional key levels at $2,725-2,720. A break below $2,720 could trigger technical selling, pushing prices toward the $2,665-2,662 zone.

On the upside, a sustained move above the $2,772-2,773 resistance could open the door for a retest of the recent peak near $2,786. Further buying momentum beyond the $2,800 psychological level could signal a renewed bullish phase, extending the upward trend

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Gold Price Holds Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold Price Remains Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold price (XAU/USD) came under selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday, retreating from the multi-month high of $2,763–$2,764 touched the previous day. This decline halts a three-day winning streak. The US Dollar (USD) gained some strength from its recovery off a monthly low, supported by a rebound in US Treasury bond yields, and the upbeat sentiment in equity markets further dampened demand for the safe-haven metal.

Signs of easing inflation in the US have fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates twice this year, creating a potential headwind for US bond yields and the USD. However, ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which could increase trade tensions and market volatility, may help limit the downside for gold prices. Traders may remain cautious and wait for sustained selling pressure to confirm that the one-month uptrend has ended.

Risk-On Mood and Modest USD Rebound Cap Gold Gains

The USD steadied above its recent lows amid recovering Treasury yields, adding pressure to gold prices. In addition, easing geopolitical tensions and a lack of concrete details regarding Trump’s tariff policies have maintained a risk-on sentiment, further undermining gold’s appeal.

While Trump’s proposed tariff policies are considered inflationary, which could prompt the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, markets are still pricing in at least two Fed rate cuts this year. This outlook may limit the upside for US bond yields and the USD, potentially supporting gold in the near term.

Investors are eyeing Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum for more clarity on tariffs, alongside the release of US Weekly Jobless Claims, which could influence XAU/USD prices. Upcoming central bank rate decisions, including the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday and next week’s announcements from the Fed and the European Central Bank, could inject volatility into the market and impact gold prices.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Key Support Levels:

  • Immediate support is seen near the $2,725–$2,720 zone, a former resistance-turned-support level.
  • Further declines could target the $2,700 mark, with a decisive break paving the way for a move toward the $2,665–$2,662 region.
  • The $2,627–$2,622 confluence, which includes the 100-day EMA and a short-term ascending trendline, will act as a critical pivot point for short-term traders.

Key Resistance Levels:

  • The recent high near $2,763–$2,764 offers the first resistance level.
  • A break above this zone could see gold prices challenge the all-time high around $2,790, reached in October.
  • The $2,800 mark is the next significant resistance, and a break above it would signal a continuation of the well-established uptrend over the past month.

Outlook:

Gold prices remain influenced by risk sentiment, central bank policy expectations, and USD movements. While near-term bearish factors may limit gains, uncertainty around US tariff policies and inflation trends could provide support, making any dips near key technical levels potential opportunities for dip-buying. Traders will remain focused on upcoming economic data and central bank decisions for further direction.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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Gold Price Recovers Some Losses

Gold Price Recovers Some Losses, Still Below Key 50-Day SMA Resistance

Gold Price Recovers Some Losses, Still Below Key 50-Day SMA Resistance

During Tuesday’s Asian trading session, gold prices (XAU/USD) experienced some buying, partially offsetting Monday’s modest losses. This revival is driven by U.S. macroeconomic data that suggest easing inflation pressures, heightening anticipation of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September. These developments provide some support for gold, which does not yield income but often gains when yield-bearing assets like bonds are less attractive. Nonetheless, the metal continues to operate within a familiar range from the past week and remains below the crucial 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling that bullish traders should remain cautious.

Recently, the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance, predicting only one interest rate cut this year. This position has been reinforced by multiple Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, maintaining high U.S. Treasury bond yields. These conditions bolster the U.S. Dollar (USD), which, in turn, could limit any significant upward movement in gold prices. Investors and traders are encouraged to await sustained buying before determining that the recent corrective downturn from the record highs in May is concluding and before preparing for potential further gains.

The outlook for gold is tethered not only to U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve policies but also to broader global economic dynamics. With inflationary pressures showing signs of subsiding, there could be less impetus for the Fed to maintain higher interest rates, traditionally a scenario that favors gold. However, the complexities of global finance, including ongoing international tensions and economic recoveries, continue to play a significant role in shaping market sentiment and the subsequent demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Moving forward, market participants will likely monitor upcoming U.S. economic reports and statements from FOMC members closely. These insights will help gauge the strength of the dollar and the trajectory of interest rates, which are pivotal in determining the direction of gold prices. As such, the immediate future of gold trading appears to hinge on a delicate balance of economic indicators, monetary policy expectations, and global market sentiment.

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Gold Price Stays Low Amid Rate Concerns

Gold Price Stays Low Amid Rate Concerns, Rising US Dollar Demand

Gold Price Stays Low Amid Rate Concerns, Rising US Dollar Demand

During early trading in Europe on Tuesday, the gold price (XAU/USD) faced renewed selling pressure, diminishing some of the modest recovery gains it had made from the previous day. These gains had lifted the price from a low of $2,287—the lowest in over a month—sparked by optimistic US employment data. This development has led investors to reconsider their expectations for an impending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, resulting in sustained high US Treasury bond yields and a robust US Dollar (USD). The dollar reached a multi-week high on Monday, which continues to dampen the demand for gold.

Additionally, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) made a significant shift by sharply curtailing its gold purchasing activities in May. This decision marked the end of an extensive one-and-a-half-year period of consistent buying, diverting investment flows away from gold. Despite these pressures, gold prices are finding some support against deeper losses due to ongoing political uncertainty in Europe and persistent geopolitical risks. These factors are causing traders to adopt a cautious stance, preferring to wait for further economic indicators.

Key upcoming events that traders are watching include the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, both due on Wednesday. These events are highly anticipated as they could provide clearer signals about the Fed’s plans regarding rate cuts. The outcome of these developments will be crucial in shaping the short-term direction of gold prices.

Gold, as a non-yielding asset, typically finds it challenging to compete with yield-bearing investments when interest rates are high. The current strength of the US dollar, fueled by high treasury yields and the Fed’s monetary policy stance, continues to exert downward pressure on gold prices. However, the precious metal’s status as a safe-haven asset amid financial and geopolitical instability could help mitigate some of the negative impacts from these economic factors.

Investors and traders are therefore closely monitoring these economic indicators and central bank decisions, which will play a pivotal role in determining the near-term pricing and investment attractiveness of gold in the current economic landscape.

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Gold Prices Hit Two-Week High as Buyers

Gold Prices Hit Two-Week High as Buyers Bet on Fed Rate Cut

Gold Prices Hit Two-Week High as Buyers Bet on Fed Rate Cut

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have seen consistent buying interest for the second consecutive day, reaching a two-week peak around the $2,373 mark during the early European trading session on Thursday. The momentum is distinctly bullish, fueled by expectations that major central banks worldwide might reduce borrowing costs to stimulate economic growth.

This bullish sentiment was reinforced when the Bank of Canada (BoC), on Wednesday, reduced its benchmark interest rate for the first time in four years from a more than two-decade high, expressing concerns over a decelerating economy. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to lower its interest rates for the first time since March 2016 at its policy meeting conclusion later today.

On another front, market participants are increasingly betting on a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in response to signs of a cooling U.S. economy. These expectations have kept U.S. Treasury bond yields at their lowest in over two months, which has undermined any attempts by the U.S. Dollar (USD) to capitalize on its modest recovery gains observed over the previous two days. Moreover, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, continue to support the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

Despite these favorable conditions, the upside potential for gold prices appears somewhat capped. Investors remain cautious, with many holding their positions in anticipation of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday. This key economic indicator could provide significant insights into the health of the U.S. labor market and influence the Fed’s monetary policy decisions moving forward.

Overall, the global economic landscape, characterized by potential rate cuts from major central banks and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, forms a supportive backdrop for gold. However, the near-term trajectory of gold prices will likely be influenced by upcoming economic data releases and policy announcements, which are keenly awaited by traders and investors alike to gauge the next significant move in the precious metals market.

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WTI Falls Below $74 Amid OPEC+ Plans

WTI Falls Below $74 Amid OPEC+ Plans to Reduce Production Cuts

WTI Falls Below $74 Amid OPEC+ Plans to Reduce Production Cuts

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices continued their downward trend for the fifth consecutive day, trading at approximately $73.90 per barrel during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. This recent decline in crude oil prices stems from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, announcing a plan to gradually ease oil production cuts.

OPEC+ has scheduled a phased rollback of their voluntary production cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), beginning in October. By December, it is anticipated that over 500,000 bpd will re-enter the market, culminating in a total of 1.8 million bpd by June 2025. This move is aimed at stabilizing the oil market which has experienced significant fluctuations.

In a related development, the United States has announced the purchase of an additional 3 million barrels of oil for the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This decision, made by the Department of Energy, is part of a broader effort to gradually replenish the reserve following its largest-ever depletion in 2022. Last year, under directives from President Joe Biden, 180 million barrels were released over six months to help manage fuel prices in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which had spiked global oil prices.

Additionally, recent U.S. economic data revealed some easing in price pressures. The latest Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for April showed a softening in inflation, although this did not prompt an immediate rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed’s hesitation suggests that more time may be needed to meet its inflation targets. Concurrently, the persistently high interest rates are casting a shadow over the U.S. economic outlook, curbing oil demand as higher borrowing costs weigh on economic activities.

Overall, these developments reflect a complex interplay between global oil supply adjustments by OPEC+, strategic reserve policies of the U.S., and broader economic conditions, all of which are contributing to the current trends in oil market dynamics.

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WTI Crude Oil Prices Dip Below $68.50 Amid Stronger USD

WTI Nears $79 as Key US Economic Data Looms

WTI Nears $79 as Key US Economic Data Looms

In the Asian trading session on Thursday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell slightly to around $79.00 per barrel. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming economic reports, including today’s US Crude Oil Stocks Change report from the Energy Information Administration. Expectations are set for a drawdown of 1.9 million barrels for the week ending May 24, contrasting with the previous addition of 1.825 million barrels. Additionally, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock last week reported a significant decrease of 6.49 million barrels, following a 2.48 million barrel increase the week before.

Attention is also focused on the upcoming June 2 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, known as OPEC+. The meeting is critical as members will consider extending voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second half of 2024. It is widely anticipated that the group will agree to maintain these supply reductions.

Further influencing the oil market are comments from Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, which have stirred concerns about further interest rate hikes. Kashkari noted the possibility of rate increases, casting doubt on the progress of disinflation. Such hawkish monetary policy stances tend to negatively impact the economic outlook and, consequently, depress oil prices.

Additionally, the US dollar has strengthened on the back of rising Treasury yields, fueled by investor risk aversion ahead of significant economic data releases. The forthcoming US Gross Domestic Product Annualized data for Q1 and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data set for release on Friday are critical. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially curbing demand.

These elements combined paint a complex picture for WTI prices, as market participants weigh supply dynamics against broader economic indicators and monetary policy developments.

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WTI Crude Oil Holds Modest Losses Above $70, Bearish Bias Persists

WTI Nears $78.50 as US Inflation Data, OPEC+ Meeting Loom

WTI Nears $78.50 as US Inflation Data, OPEC+ Meeting Loom

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edged higher as traders anticipate the upcoming meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia (OPEC+), scheduled for June 2. The meeting will address whether to extend the current voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second half of 2024. WTI was trading around $78.70 per barrel during Tuesday’s Asian trading session.

The rise in oil prices is also fueled by increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, an Israeli airstrike in Rafah, Gaza, reportedly caused a significant fire, resulting in 45 casualties. This incident has intensified international reactions and added a geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. Additionally, the reported death of an Egyptian soldier in related strikes has further contributed to the risk concerns impacting oil markets.

Market focus is also on the US economic indicators, with traders awaiting the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data on Friday. This inflation measure is closely watched by the Federal Reserve to guide its monetary policy decisions. Recent comments from Fed officials suggest a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need for more substantial evidence of inflation trending towards the 2% annual target. Persistently high interest rates could dampen the US economic outlook and curtail oil demand.

Furthermore, developments in Iran could influence oil supply dynamics. According to reports from Iran’s Tasnim news agency, an economic council led by Iran’s interim president Mohammad Mokhber has approved a plan to boost the country’s oil production from 3.6 million barrels per day to 4 million barrels per day.

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Gold Price

Gold Prices Fall Further Due to Fed’s Hawkish Outlook

Gold Prices Fall Further Due to Fed’s Hawkish Outlook

On Wednesday, gold prices faced downward pressure as sellers stepped in, influenced by the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, which were perceived as markedly more hawkish than earlier communications. This interpretation suggests that the U.S. Federal Reserve may maintain its tight monetary policy stance for a prolonged period. The anticipation of continued restrictive policies bolstered the U.S. dollar, which in turn placed significant selling pressure on gold.

The price trajectory of gold in the coming days could hinge on several key economic indicators and events. Market participants are particularly keen on the upcoming preliminary readings of the U.S. Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May. Should these indicators come in weaker than expected, they could fuel speculation that the Federal Reserve might ease up on interest rates, potentially providing a lift to gold prices.

Moreover, ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent uncertainties are likely to continue supporting the precious metal by limiting its downside. Despite the pressures from a stronger dollar, factors such as unresolved geopolitical conflicts and sustained high inflation are elements that traditionally drive investors towards the safety of gold.

In addition to the PMI data, several other important economic reports and events are on the horizon, which could influence gold prices. These include the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and New Home Sales data. Additionally, comments from the Federal Reserve’s officials, particularly from Fed’s Bostic, will be closely watched for further insights into the central bank’s future policy direction.

Investors and traders in gold will need to navigate a complex landscape of economic data and Fed communications in the short term. While the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve poses challenges, the underlying economic uncertainties and the traditional role of gold as a safe-haven asset may provide some support to its prices. As such, the balance of these dynamics will be crucial in determining the near-term movements in the gold market.

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EUR/USD Edges Higher Toward 1.0450, Upside Limited Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

EUR/USD Edges Higher Toward 1.0450, Upside Limited Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

EUR/USD pauses its two-day decline, trading near 1.0440 during Wednesday’s Asian session. However, upside potential remains capped as risk-off sentiment prevails ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision later in the North American session.

The US Dollar (USD) remains supported by the Fed’s cautious policy stance. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are nearly certain the Fed will maintain its policy rate within the 4.25%-4.50% target range. However, traders will closely follow Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for any indications of future monetary policy shifts.

Additionally, the Greenback strengthened following tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump. On Monday evening, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to boost domestic manufacturing.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) faces headwinds as markets anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% on Thursday. This expectation is driven by the Eurozone’s sluggish economic outlook and confidence that inflation will sustainably return to the ECB’s 2% target.

With a 25 bps rate cut largely priced in, investors will focus on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference for insights into the potential economic impact of Trump’s tariff policies and their influence on future monetary decisions.

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GBP/USD Drops Below 1.2500 on Dovish BoE Outlook and Trump Tariff Moves

GBP/USD Slips Below 1.2500 Amid Dovish BoE Expectations and Trump’s Tariff Plans

The GBP/USD pair reverses its three-day rally, trading near 1.2440 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The British Pound (GBP) faces mounting pressure as markets anticipate a likely rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) to 4.5% at its next meeting.

Key Drivers Behind GBP Weakness

  1. Weaker UK Economic Data:
    Recent economic indicators from the United Kingdom, including declining inflation, sluggish retail sales, soft labor market performance, and weak GDP growth for December, have solidified expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the BoE in February. This dovish outlook has weighed heavily on the Pound.
  2. US Dollar Strength:
    The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers near 108.00, supported by President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariff plans. Trump proposed tariffs on critical imports such as computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to bolster domestic manufacturing.
  3. Trump’s Aggressive Trade Policies:
    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested starting with a phased 2.5% universal tariff on US imports, but Trump has expressed a preference for significantly higher rates. These proposals have fueled inflation concerns and boosted US Treasury yields, providing further support for the Greenback.
  4. Fed Policy Uncertainty:
    Amid the backdrop of Trump’s trade and immigration policies, the Federal Reserve is treading cautiously. Markets are now closely watching Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could further influence USD momentum.

Market Outlook for GBP/USD

  • Downside Risks:
    The pair could face further selling pressure if upcoming UK economic data or BoE commentary reinforces the likelihood of rate cuts. Additionally, stronger US economic data, including Durable Goods Orders, the Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, could drive the US Dollar higher.
  • Key Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near 1.2400, with a break below potentially exposing the 1.2350 region.
  • Upside Potential:
    Resistance is seen near 1.2500, followed by 1.2550. Sustained recovery would depend on a shift in BoE policy expectations or a pullback in USD strength.

Conclusion

The GBP/USD remains vulnerable as dovish expectations surrounding the BoE and Trump’s aggressive tariff policies bolster the US Dollar. Traders should keep an eye on critical economic data and central bank decisions for further cues on the pair’s direction.

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EUR/USD Dips Below 1.0500 as US Dollar Index Rebounds from Monthly Lows

EUR/USD Dips Below 1.0500 as US Dollar Index Rebounds from Monthly Lows

EUR/USD slid to approximately 1.0480 during the Asian session on Monday as the US Dollar Index (DXY) recovered from its monthly low of 107.22, recorded last Friday. At the time of writing, the DXY is trading near 107.60.

The US Dollar gained traction after the release of mixed US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. Market uncertainty regarding the implications of US President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies may further encourage the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rate adjustments this year.

According to S&P Global data released on Friday, the US Composite PMI dropped to 52.4 in January from December’s 55.4. The Manufacturing PMI, however, improved to 50.1 in January from 49.4, surpassing market expectations of 49.6. Meanwhile, the Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January, down from December’s 56.8 and missing the consensus estimate of 56.5.

On the other hand, the Euro gained some support as the HCOB Eurozone preliminary Composite PMI expanded in January, signaling growth after two months of contraction. The S&P Global report indicated an increase in overall business activity, with the Composite PMI rising to 50.2 in January from November’s 49.6, beating economists’ forecasts of a slower decline to 49.7.

Nevertheless, the Euro remains under pressure due to a dovish sentiment surrounding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook. The ECB is widely expected to reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% during its Thursday meeting, with further cuts anticipated over the next three policy sessions. ECB officials appear confident that inflation will gradually return to the target rate of 2%.

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EUR/USD Gains Support Around 1.0450 Ahead of Eurozone and US PMI Data

EUR/USD Gains Support Around 1.0450 Ahead of Eurozone and US PMI Data

The EUR/USD pair found support near 1.0450 during the early Asian session on Friday, driven by weakness in the US Dollar (USD). Investors are now focusing on the preliminary January readings of the HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the Eurozone and Germany, set to be released later in the day. On the US front, the spotlight will be on the flash S&P PMI for January.

The USD faced additional pressure following remarks from former US President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Trump called for immediate interest rate cuts and suggested that rates should be lowered globally.

“Markets appear increasingly concerned about potential rate cuts and are focusing on signs that indicate further reductions,” said David Eng, Investment Adviser at Sonora Wealth Group in Vancouver.

In Europe, recent statements from European Central Bank (ECB) officials suggest that a rate cut may be on the horizon. Earlier this week, ECB Croatian central bank chief Boris Vujcic stated that market expectations for ECB interest rate cuts are reasonable, adding that risks surrounding the inflation outlook remain balanced.

ECB President Christine Lagarde also commented on Wednesday that the central bank is “not overly concerned” about inflation risks stemming from abroad. She confirmed that the ECB will continue its gradual approach to reducing interest rates. Markets are now pricing in a 96% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming ECB meeting.

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EUR/USD Stalls Recovery Amid Midweek Slowdown

EUR/USD Stalls Recovery Amid Midweek Slowdown

The EUR/USD pair slipped slightly on Wednesday, losing approximately 0.1% as markets entered a quiet phase ahead of key economic data releases later in the week. U.S. President Donald Trump has temporarily paused his ongoing trade war rhetoric and threats of broad-based import taxes, leaving investors with limited drivers for market movement.

Thursday’s trading session is expected to mirror Wednesday’s subdued activity, with a sparse economic calendar and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in its typical blackout period ahead of next week’s interest rate decision. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) has fewer constraints but offers little new commentary to shift market sentiment. ECB President Christine Lagarde made an appearance on Wednesday, though her remarks had minimal impact on markets.

Attention now turns to Friday’s release of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for both the EU and the U.S. These business activity surveys for January are anticipated to show mixed results. While the services components are expected to decline slightly—or remain flat in the EU—manufacturing is forecasted to recover marginally. PMI data generally has a limited market impact unless the figures deviate significantly from expectations. However, low survey response rates suggest the results should be interpreted with caution.

EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD bulls faced resistance near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0460, failing to break through the 1.0450 level and retreating toward the 1.0400 zone. The pair has struggled to maintain upward momentum, despite rebounding 2.75% from last week’s dip to two-year lows below 1.0200.

Although technical indicators have flipped to bullish after signaling oversold conditions, sustained upward momentum remains elusive. Traders looking for a longer-term bullish trend should wait for confirmation of a higher low pattern before entering positions based on technical signals.

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EUR/USD Edges Lower Near 1.0400 Amid Trump’s Tariff Threats

EUR/USD Edges Lower Near 1.0400 Amid Trump’s Tariff Threats

The EUR/USD pair dipped slightly to around 1.0415 during Wednesday’s Asian trading session, with the Euro (EUR) under pressure against the US Dollar (USD). This decline follows US President Donald Trump’s announcement of potential tariffs on the European Union (EU). Traders now await a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later today for further market direction.

On Tuesday, Trump stated his intention to impose 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union starting February 1, citing trade deficits with the US as a key concern. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen underscored the need to safeguard EU-US trade relations, noting that the transatlantic partnership accounts for €1.5 trillion in trade and significant mutual investment, highlighting the stakes for both sides. Trump’s policies could bolster the USD, adding further pressure on the Euro.

Market sentiment around the ECB also weighs on the EUR. Speculation of a dovish policy shift persists, with expectations of a rate cut on January 30 and a potential reduction in the benchmark rate to 2% by year-end. ECB policymaker Boris Vujčić stated on Monday that market expectations of rate cuts are justified, while inflation risks remain broadly balanced.

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EUR/JPY Dips Towards 161.00 as BoJ Signals Possible Rate Hike

EUR/JPY Dips Towards 161.00 as BoJ Signals Possible Rate Hike

The EUR/JPY pair slipped to approximately 161.10 during early European trading on Tuesday, as the Japanese Yen gained strength amid increasing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates during its upcoming policy meeting on Friday. Additionally, market attention is turning to Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey for January, set to be released later in the day.

Markets are currently pricing in a 92% probability that the BoJ will increase interest rates by the end of its January 23-24 meeting. Such a move would push short-term borrowing costs to levels not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, Atsushi Mimura, commented on Tuesday that the outlook for the US economy depends on its macroeconomic policies. Meanwhile, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato emphasized the need to monitor the global impact of US economic policies closely. He also expressed confidence that the BoJ would implement monetary policies effectively to achieve its 2% inflation target.

Conversely, the Euro’s performance against the Yen may be hindered by the dovish stance of the European Central Bank (ECB). According to the ECB’s December Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, policymakers agreed to proceed cautiously with rate adjustments but also indicated that further rate cuts could be necessary. Weakened inflationary pressures and a subdued economic outlook in the Eurozone have led markets to anticipate 25-basis-point rate cuts at each of the ECB’s next four policy meetings. These expectations weigh heavily on the Euro’s performance against stronger currencies like the Yen.

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Japanese Yen Bears Show Resilience Despite Intervention Concerns

Japanese Yen Bears Show Resilience Despite Intervention Concerns

Japanese Yen Bears Show Resilience Despite Intervention Concerns

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has clawed back much of its earlier losses against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/JPY pair stabilizing in the mid-154.00s as the European session begins on Monday. Fears of intervention by Japanese authorities to bolster the Yen, combined with heightened geopolitical tensions, have lent some support to the safe-haven currency. Additionally, a modest dip in the US Dollar further limits the upside potential for the pair.

Key Drivers of JPY Performance
Despite its recovery, the JPY’s appreciation remains constrained by uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate hike timeline. Expectations of inflationary policies under US President-elect Donald Trump and elevated US Treasury yields provide additional support for USD strength, capping the JPY’s gains.

Mixed Signals for Traders
Japanese Yen traders are adopting a cautious stance amid a blend of contradictory factors:

  • Bank of Japan Outlook: Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Monday that rate hikes depend on economic and financial conditions, noting Japan’s moderate recovery but acknowledging weak areas.
  • Government Vigilance: Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato emphasized high scrutiny of the FX market, warning of action against excessive volatility.
  • Geopolitical Risks: US President Joe Biden’s authorization for Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia adds to global uncertainty, potentially boosting demand for safe-haven assets like the JPY.

US Dollar Fundamentals
The US Dollar remains under pressure following a post-election rally but avoids significant depreciation due to strong fundamentals:

  • Inflation Concerns: Investors anticipate that Trump’s policies could sustain inflation, limiting the Fed’s scope for rate cuts.
  • Fed Outlook: Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials suggest a measured approach to monetary policy, with Powell emphasizing steady growth and a strong job market as reasons to avoid rushing rate cuts.
  • Economic Data: Better-than-expected US Retail Sales data for October (0.4% vs. 0.3% expected) highlights the economy’s resilience, further supporting the USD.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair exhibits bullish resilience, bouncing back above the 154.00 level at the start of the week.

  • Upside Targets: A break above the psychological resistance at 155.00 could drive the pair toward the 155.70 intermediate resistance and eventually the 156.00 level.
  • Downside Risks: Immediate support lies at 153.85, with further declines potentially targeting 153.25 and 153.00. A decisive break below 152.70 could expose the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 151.85.

Market Focus This Week
Investors will monitor BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference for indications of a potential December rate hike. The announcement could spark volatility and influence JPY demand. Additionally, developments in geopolitical tensions and US inflation dynamics will remain key drivers of the USD/JPY pair.

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Australian Dollar Struggles as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of US PPI Release

Australian Dollar Struggles as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of US PPI Release

Australian Dollar Struggles as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of US PPI Release

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) following Thursday’s economic data releases. Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations fell to 3.8% in November, down from 4.0% in October, marking the lowest level since October 2021.

Australia’s Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted, held steady at 4.1% in October for the third consecutive month, meeting market expectations. However, Employment Change disappointed, with only 15.9K new jobs added in October, below the forecasted 25.0K.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock stated on Thursday that current interest rates are sufficiently restrictive and will stay at this level until the central bank gains more clarity on inflation trends. Bullock highlighted the uncertainty surrounding potential US Federal Reserve actions and indicated that the RBA will proceed cautiously.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, remains strong around 106.60, its highest level since November 2023. This rally in the Greenback has been fueled by “Trump trades” and the recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Donald Trump’s recent election victory has raised expectations of potentially inflationary trade policies and tariffs, providing further support for the US Dollar.

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US CPI Inflation Data Expected to Rebound in

US CPI Inflation Data Expected to Rebound in October as Markets Assess Trump Victory Impact

US CPI Inflation Data Expected to Rebound in October as Markets Assess Trump Victory Impact

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT, with significant market interest expected. The US Dollar (USD) is likely to experience high volatility from this inflation report, which could play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations for the coming months.

What to Expect from the October CPI Report?

Inflation in the US, as measured by the CPI, is forecast to rise at an annual rate of 2.6% for October, slightly above September’s 2.4% increase. The core annual CPI inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to hold steady at 3.3%. Monthly, the CPI and core CPI are projected to grow by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

TD Securities analysts suggest that “inflation readings should remain somewhat firmer than the Fed would prefer,” noting that headline CPI could rise by 0.29% month-on-month, while core inflation might see a firmer 0.32% increase. They expect the annual headline CPI rate to edge up to 2.6% and core inflation to remain at 3.3%.

Following its November policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank remains committed to a gradual path of monetary easing, affirming that US presidential election outcomes would not affect Fed policy decisions in the short term. Powell underscored the Fed’s independence from the new administration, adding that he would not resign if asked by President-elect Donald Trump.

Impact on EUR/USD

The upcoming CPI report is crucial for EUR/USD traders, as US fiscal policies under Trump, including potential tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration changes, could add upward pressure on inflation. Although these effects would likely emerge in the medium to long term, the October CPI data will be watched closely as an indicator of near-term Fed actions. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, market sentiment currently shows a 67% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, down from 80% earlier in the month.

Recent labor data, including a Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increase of 12,000 jobs in October and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, have painted a mixed picture. Wage inflation, measured by Average Hourly Earnings, rose to 4% year-over-year in October, up from 3.9% in September.

A significant downside surprise in annual CPI or core inflation could reinforce expectations of a December rate cut and lead to a USD sell-off. However, hotter-than-expected CPI data could prompt Fed hawks to push back against a rate cut.

Technical Outlook for EUR/USD

Dhwani Mehta, FXStreet’s Asian Session Lead Analyst, provides a technical outlook, noting that EUR/USD’s near-term technical indicators suggest potential buyer exhaustion. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching oversold territory at 30, EUR/USD may encounter demand around the 1.0550 level, followed by a test of the 1.0517 low from November 1, 2023, if selling persists. A break below 1.0500 could signal further declines. Conversely, if buyers regain control and push past the November 11 high of 1.0728, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0810 becomes the next target.

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Japanese Yen Lingers Near Daily Lows

Japanese Yen Lingers Near Daily Lows Around Mid-153.00s vs. USD Amid BoJ Uncertainty

Japanese Yen Lingers Near Daily Lows Around Mid-153.00s vs. USD Amid BoJ Uncertainty

The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces selling pressure at the start of the week as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) released a Summary of Opinions from its October meeting, revealing a lack of consensus among policymakers on the timing of potential rate hikes. This division, coupled with political uncertainty in Japan, casts doubt on the BoJ’s capacity to continue tightening its monetary policy, leaving the JPY subdued against the US Dollar (USD) as the European session approaches. Additionally, concerns that US President-elect Donald Trump could reintroduce protectionist trade measures against Japan weigh further on the Yen.

However, recent verbal interventions by Japanese authorities, along with a generally cautious market sentiment, may help cap further losses for the safe-haven JPY. Investors might also adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of key macroeconomic events this week, including the US consumer inflation data and Japan’s preliminary Q3 GDP report. Additionally, remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell could add momentum to the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, market expectations that Trump’s policies will drive inflation higher—limiting the Fed’s flexibility for policy easing—continue to support the USD.

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US Dollar Price Forecast: Holds Steady Around 104.50, Above Key Moving Averages

US Dollar Price Forecast: Holds Steady Around 104.50, Above Key Moving Averages

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains steady around 104.50 during European trading on Friday, extending its daily gains. Analysis of the daily chart suggests a continued bullish trend, with the DXY moving within an ascending channel.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, supporting the bullish sentiment. Additionally, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits above the 14-day EMA, signaling upward momentum in the short term.

On the upside, resistance could push the DXY toward the recent four-month high of 105.45, reached on November 6. A decisive break above this level may strengthen market sentiment and propel the DXY toward the psychological mark of 106.00, which aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending channel.

On the downside, immediate support is at the nine-day EMA around 104.25, followed by the 14-day EMA at 104.09. A break below this level may introduce downward pressure, potentially driving the DXY toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 103.70.

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Japanese Yen Hovers Near Daily Low Against USD, US Election Concerns Lend Support

Japanese Yen Hovers Near Daily Low Against USD, US Election Concerns Lend Support

Japanese Yen Hovers Near Daily Low Against USD, US Election Concerns Lend Support

The Japanese Yen (JPY) holds steady, drifting further from a one-week low against the US Dollar (USD) touched on Monday, as expectations rise that Japan’s political landscape may complicate future rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent comments at last week’s press conference leave open the possibility of a rate hike at the upcoming BoJ policy meeting in December. Additionally, market caution around the closely contested US presidential election and global geopolitical tensions lend support to the safe-haven JPY.

The narrowing interest rate differential between the US and Japan has also helped limit JPY losses. Coupled with subdued USD price action, this has prevented the USD/JPY pair from advancing significantly beyond the mid-152.00s. Investor sentiment now leans toward expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement an interest rate cut later this week. Moreover, the unwinding of “Trump trade” positions has driven US Treasury yields lower, keeping USD bulls cautious.

This dynamic suggests that investors should exercise caution before positioning for any significant intraday appreciation in the USD/JPY pair, as market risks and political uncertainties continue to impact the currency’s movement.

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold price trades with mild negative bias near record high amid modest USD uptick

Gold price trades with mild negative bias near record high amid modest USD uptick

As Thursday dawned upon the trading halls, gold—the venerable “yellow metal”—suffered a modest dip during the early hours of the Asian session, like a nobleman impeded by the ever-looming shadow of the sturdy US Dollar. This glimmering asset, dear to traders and watchful investors alike, found itself tethered, held back by the Dollar’s fresh vigor and the shrewd murmurs of a cautious marketplace. For as the Dollar gathered strength, demand for Dollar-denominated commodities grew fickle and, like the dimming glow of a taper in a fog-laden alley, gold’s price wavered just shy of its coveted heights.

A storm brewed overhead, one of fiscal deficit concerns and rising Treasury yields, which played their part in holding gold’s trajectory in check. The Federal Reserve, casting its shadow of smaller rate cuts, offered little hope for upward momentum in this unyielding metal. The daily chart bore signs of overbought conditions, nudging cautious traders to step back, watching keenly from the sidelines, hesitant to press forward aggressively.

Yet there lingered a faint glimmer, a hint of resilience amid these headwinds. The marketplace was steeped in trepidation over the November 5 election and unsettling tensions in the Middle East. The safe-haven allure of gold, much like an old friend in troubled times, stood firm, offering traders a semblance of comfort amidst the uncertainties. And so, they waited—peering anxiously at the coming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index and the venerable Nonfarm Payrolls report, both heralded as messengers of the Fed’s next move and, perhaps, the next chapter for gold in this ever-turning tale.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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