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EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens

EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens; FOMC Minutes in Spotlight

The EUR/USD pair slid to around 1.1705 during Wednesday’s Asian session, weighed down by renewed strength in the US Dollar. The Euro came under pressure following fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump, which unsettled global markets and added to investor caution. 

Trump reignited global trade concerns by proposing a 50% tariff on copper imports and hinted at possible duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. While he mentioned that negotiations with both the European Union and China are progressing well, he also warned that a tariff notice to the EU could be issued within days. This uncertainty has dented risk sentiment, putting the Euro under additional stress. 

Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, due later today. Market participants are hoping for more clarity on the Fed’s rate path, especially amid growing expectations of monetary easing. 

At its June meeting, the Fed held interest rates steady, maintaining the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%—a level unchanged since December. However, markets are now pricing in a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end, potentially beginning as early as October. 

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Australian Dollar Gains as Risk Sentiment Improves, RBA Decision in Focus

Australian Dollar Rises Amid Risk-On Sentiment, Focus Shifts to RBA Rate Decision

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its third straight session of gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following US President Donald Trump’s move to postpone the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. A weaker USD following disappointing US retail sales data has further supported the AUD/USD pair, reigniting speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates later this year despite persistent inflation concerns.

Yet, the AUD’s gains could be capped before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy announcement on Tuesday, as mounting speculation of a cut in interest rates deters sentiment. The RBA is widely expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10%, marking the first rate reduction in four years.

US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Lower Treasury Yields

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down for the third consecutive session, bogged down by weaker US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the DXY is trading around 106.70, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields at 4.26% and 4.47%, respectively.

Statistics released by the US Census Bureau on Friday indicated that US Retail Sales decreased 0.9% in January, a reversal from a revised 0.7% rise in December (earlier reported as 0.4%). The decrease was deeper than the market expectation of a 0.1% decline.

Conversely, Core PPI inflation in the US increased to 3.6% YoY in January, above expectations of 3.3%, though marginally less than the revised 3.7% (initially published as 3.5%). This has consolidated expectations that the Fed will push rate cuts until the second part of the year.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% YoY in January, beating expectations of 2.9%, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) went up to 3.3% from 3.2%, beating expectations of 3.1%. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose 0.5% in January compared to 0.4% in December, with core CPI rising to 0.4% from 0.2% in the same period.

Fed Officials Signal a Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts

In his semi-annual report to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that policymakers “do not need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates, citing a strong labor market and robust economic growth. Powell also warned that Trump’s tariff policies could exert upward pressure on inflation, making it harder for the central bank to lower rates.

A Reuters poll of economists now indicates the Fed will wait until next quarter to cut rates, citing ongoing inflationary concerns. Although previously, some analysts anticipated a March rate cut; the majority now sees at least one rate cut by June, but opinions remain divided.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack echoed this sentiment, saying that maintaining rates at current levels for a long time is probably the right thing to do. Hammack added that a patient strategy will enable the Fed to evaluate economic conditions before altering policy.

Australian Dollar Targets Upper Range Near 0.6400

The AUD/USD currency pair quotes at 0.6360 on Monday, with an uptrend in a rising channel formation. This is indicative of a bullish market inclination, which is also complemented by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 50.

On the upside, the pair could test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6380, followed by the psychological level of 0.6400.

Major levels of support are the nine-day EMA at 0.6310, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6294. A fall below these levels may erode short-term momentum, possibly pulling the pair down to the lower boundary of the rising channel at 0.6270.

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Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Jobless Claims

Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Holds Gains Ahead of Jobless Claims

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as trade balance data came in below average than expected. Furthermore, risk-off sentiment, fueled by rising US-China trade tensions, weighs on the AUD/USD.

In December, Australia’s trade surplus fell to $5,085 million, falling short of the 7,000 million anticipated and down from $6,792 million the previous year. While exports increased by 1.1% month on month, this was a decrease from November’s 4.2% increase, while imports increased by 5.9% month on month, much more than the previous 1.4% gain.

US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Australian Dollar

Investors are still focused on the current trade stagnation between the United States and China, Australia’s top trading partner. China replied to the United States’ new 10% tax, which went into force on Tuesday, causing global market concern. Regarding the situation, President Trump announced on Monday that he intends to engage with China within the next 24 hours. However, he cautioned that failure to achieve an agreement might result in “very, very substantial” tariffs.

Meanwhile, China’s Commerce Ministry imposed a 15% tax on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, as well as an additional 10% levy on crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos. As a countermeasure, China has implemented export limits on important minerals such as tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, and molybdenum, citing national security concerns.

Amid escalating trade tensions, the Financial Times writes that Chinese firms are quickening preparations to relocate production overseas, mainly to the Middle East, in order to reduce tariff impacts. Some exporters are also considering passing on prices to US consumers or expanding into new markets.

US Dollar Holds Firm Amid Mixed Economic Data

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, remains stable near 107.50, putting further downward pressure on the AUD/USD. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a weaker-than-expected US Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January, below the market forecast of 54.3.

Investors now focus on Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a key economic indicator that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.

The dollar fell on Wednesday, following a poor US Services PMI report. The ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, missing the market forecast of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are anticipating Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Pulls Back From 0.6300, Eyes Key Support

The AUD/USD pair hovers near 0.6280 on Thursday, retreating from the 0.6300 level. However, sustained trading above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) suggests short-term bullish momentum remains intact. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also holding above 50, reinforcing the bullish bias.

On the upside, the pair might target 0.6330, its seven-week high from January 24.

Immediate support comes from the nine-day EMA near 0.6254, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6249.

A breach below these levels might weaken the bullish structure, potentially sending the pair below 0.6087, its lowest level since April 2020, which was recorded on February 3.

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Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

The Australian Dollar (AUD) falls for the seventh consecutive day as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens following President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Market volatility remains high as investors monitor the continuing US-China trade talks. Trump signaled he may speak with Chinese officials within the next 24 hours, warning that if a deal isn’t reached, tariffs on China will be “very, very substantial.”

Trump also announced a 30-day tariff relief for Mexico and Canada after their nations agreed to send 10,000 troops to the US border to battle drug trafficking. This move follows the introduction of 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods just two days before.

Chinese Exporters Seek Alternatives

According to the Financial Times, Chinese manufacturers are speeding up plans to transfer production offshore in reaction to US tariffs. Some companies are considering relocating to regions such as the Middle East, while others are looking into passing costs on to US customers or entering new markets.

RBA Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on AUD

The AUD faces additional pressure amid growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut rates in February. The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since November 2023, stressing that inflation must return to its 2%-3% target range before easing policy.

Analysts at Westpac continue to forecast 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, with the market pricing in a more conservative outlook. ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and National Australia Bank (NAB) all anticipate a 25-basis-point (bps) cut in February, with NAB recently revising its forecast forward from May.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Developments

The US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilizes around 108.70 after erasing gains from the previous session. Recent US economic data support the greenback, with ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, exceeding expectations of 49.8.

Inflation indicators remain in focus as the Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 0.3% MoM in December, up from 0.1% in November. Annual PCE inflation increased to 2.6%, while core PCE held steady at 2.8% YoY for the third straight month.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, highlighted that further policy adjustments would be required if there was clear evidence of inflation advance or labor market weakness. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently argued for new uniform taxes on US imports, beginning at 2.5% and progressively increasing—a departure from his previous stance that tariffs cause inflation.

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

AUD/USD trades around 0.6210 on Tuesday, remaining within a descending channel pattern on the daily chart, signaling a bearish bias. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recovering toward the 50 level, suggesting weakening downside momentum. A breakout above the channel, combined with an RSI move above 50, could indicate a shift toward a bullish outlook.

On the downside, the pair may test the descending channel’s lower boundary near 0.6150. A break below this level could drive AUD/USD toward 0.6087, its lowest point since April 2020.

AUD/USD is currently testing its initial resistance, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6225, which aligns with the channel’s upper limit. A decisive move over this level could fuel bullish optimism.

 

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Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum

Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum; USD/JPY Struggles Below 154.50

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen in early European trading on Thursday, pushing USD/JPY further below 154.50 and closer to its one-month low from earlier this week. Market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again by year-end continue to support the JPY. Additionally, a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields, narrowing the US-Japan yield differential, has further boosted demand for the lower-yielding Yen.

However, concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may limit aggressive JPY buying. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish pause on Wednesday has bolstered the US Dollar (USD), which could provide some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders are now looking ahead to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which may increase market volatility and drive further demand for the safe-haven Yen. Additionally, the Advance US Q4 GDP report could introduce short-term trading opportunities.

JPY Gains on Hawkish BoJ Sentiment Amid Market Uncertainty

  • Minutes from the BoJ’s December meeting, released Wednesday, indicated discussions on using neutral interest rate estimates to guide future rate hikes.
  • Former BoJ board member Makoto Sakurai stated on Tuesday that steady rate increases remain feasible due to rising wages, sustained inflation, and strong economic growth.
  • The Federal Reserve, as expected, held rates steady after its two-day meeting and signaled no immediate plans for rate cuts.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a patient stance, stating there is no urgency to adjust policy and reaffirming that rates will stay elevated amid concerns over Trump’s trade policies, which could fuel inflation.
  • The 10-year US Treasury yield has struggled to sustain gains post-FOMC due to uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s economic policies.
  • Reports from Asahi newspaper indicate that Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is finalizing plans for a February 7 meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington.
  • The ECB’s policy decision later today is expected to introduce further volatility, alongside the Advance US Q4 GDP print.

USD/JPY at Risk of Retesting Monthly Lows Near 153.70

The USD/JPY pair faced renewed selling pressure near the 156.00 level, breaking below the key 155.00 psychological mark, confirming a multi-month ascending channel breakdown. Momentum indicators on the daily chart suggest continued downside movement, making a retest of the 153.70 region—a multi-week low touched on Monday—a strong possibility.

Key resistance levels for a rebound:

  • 155.00 round figure
  • 155.35-155.40 region
  • 156.00 psychological level

Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling pressure near these levels. A sustained break above 156.25 could trigger short-covering, potentially lifting USD/JPY toward 156.70-156.75, with further resistance at 157.00 and 157.60.

For now, the bias remains bearish, with further losses expected if the pair stays below 154.00. Traders will closely watch US data and global central bank policy updates for the next directional move.

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Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold price (XAU/USD) faces selling pressure at the beginning of the week, pulling back from its highest level since late October, near the $2,786 mark touched on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) has staged a modest recovery following its worst weekly performance since November 2023, which has weighed on the precious metal. However, the broader market dynamics remain supportive of a bullish outlook, suggesting potential dip-buying opportunities at lower price levels.

Market Sentiment Dampened by Trade Tensions and Fed Speculation

Risk sentiment has deteriorated due to US President Donald Trump’s recent decision to impose tariffs on all imports from Colombia, reigniting fears of a trade war. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates twice by year-end, combined with a flight to safe-haven assets, have triggered a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields. This decline could limit aggressive gains in the USD, potentially cushioning the downside for gold, a non-yielding asset.

Gold Under Pressure from USD Recovery, but Downside Remains Limited

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of currencies, rose nearly 0.25% on Monday, driven by revived concerns over US trade policies. President Trump ordered 25% emergency tariffs on all Colombian imports following the country’s refusal to accept deported migrants from the US, with a threat to raise tariffs to 50% next week. Moreover, reports suggest that Trump’s advisors are considering imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1.

In a recent update, the White House confirmed that Colombia has agreed to Trump’s demands, including the unrestricted acceptance of deported individuals. Meanwhile, Trump has reiterated his call for immediate interest rate cuts, fueling speculation of further easing by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The resulting decline in US Treasury yields may act as a headwind for the USD, potentially limiting the extent of gold’s pullback.

Traders Eye Economic Data for Further Clues

Market participants will turn their focus to key US economic data, including Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, for fresh impetus during the US trading session.

Gold Price Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

Gold’s recent decline may attract dip-buying near the $2,736 support zone, as the technical setup remains bullish. Any further slide below the $2,750-2,748 range could find solid support near $2,736, with additional key levels at $2,725-2,720. A break below $2,720 could trigger technical selling, pushing prices toward the $2,665-2,662 zone.

On the upside, a sustained move above the $2,772-2,773 resistance could open the door for a retest of the recent peak near $2,786. Further buying momentum beyond the $2,800 psychological level could signal a renewed bullish phase, extending the upward trend

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Gold Price Holds Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold Price Remains Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold price (XAU/USD) came under selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday, retreating from the multi-month high of $2,763–$2,764 touched the previous day. This decline halts a three-day winning streak. The US Dollar (USD) gained some strength from its recovery off a monthly low, supported by a rebound in US Treasury bond yields, and the upbeat sentiment in equity markets further dampened demand for the safe-haven metal.

Signs of easing inflation in the US have fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates twice this year, creating a potential headwind for US bond yields and the USD. However, ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which could increase trade tensions and market volatility, may help limit the downside for gold prices. Traders may remain cautious and wait for sustained selling pressure to confirm that the one-month uptrend has ended.

Risk-On Mood and Modest USD Rebound Cap Gold Gains

The USD steadied above its recent lows amid recovering Treasury yields, adding pressure to gold prices. In addition, easing geopolitical tensions and a lack of concrete details regarding Trump’s tariff policies have maintained a risk-on sentiment, further undermining gold’s appeal.

While Trump’s proposed tariff policies are considered inflationary, which could prompt the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, markets are still pricing in at least two Fed rate cuts this year. This outlook may limit the upside for US bond yields and the USD, potentially supporting gold in the near term.

Investors are eyeing Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum for more clarity on tariffs, alongside the release of US Weekly Jobless Claims, which could influence XAU/USD prices. Upcoming central bank rate decisions, including the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday and next week’s announcements from the Fed and the European Central Bank, could inject volatility into the market and impact gold prices.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Key Support Levels:

  • Immediate support is seen near the $2,725–$2,720 zone, a former resistance-turned-support level.
  • Further declines could target the $2,700 mark, with a decisive break paving the way for a move toward the $2,665–$2,662 region.
  • The $2,627–$2,622 confluence, which includes the 100-day EMA and a short-term ascending trendline, will act as a critical pivot point for short-term traders.

Key Resistance Levels:

  • The recent high near $2,763–$2,764 offers the first resistance level.
  • A break above this zone could see gold prices challenge the all-time high around $2,790, reached in October.
  • The $2,800 mark is the next significant resistance, and a break above it would signal a continuation of the well-established uptrend over the past month.

Outlook:

Gold prices remain influenced by risk sentiment, central bank policy expectations, and USD movements. While near-term bearish factors may limit gains, uncertainty around US tariff policies and inflation trends could provide support, making any dips near key technical levels potential opportunities for dip-buying. Traders will remain focused on upcoming economic data and central bank decisions for further direction.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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WTI Crude Oil Climbs to $73.50 as Middle-East Tensions Raise Supply Disruption Fears

WTI Crude Oil Rises to $73.50 Amid Middle-East Tensions and Potential Supply Disruption

WTI Crude Oil Rises to $73.50 Amid Middle-East Tensions and Potential Supply Disruption

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil continues its upward trend for the fourth consecutive day, trading near $73.50 per barrel during Friday’s Asian session. The rise in oil prices is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from a region that accounts for approximately one-third of global crude production.

US President Joe Biden revealed that the US is in discussions with Israel regarding possible strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, as tensions mount following Iran’s missile attack on Israel earlier in the week. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran would face severe repercussions for its actions, which included firing over 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, according to a BBC report.

Despite the growing risks, OPEC+—a group that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia and Kazakhstan—has significant spare capacity to offset a potential loss of Iranian supply. However, if Iran retaliates by targeting the oil facilities of its Gulf neighbors, it could present significant challenges to global supply.

OPEC+ has been reducing oil output in recent years to support prices amid sluggish global demand. Currently, the group’s production cuts amount to 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd). Analysts estimate that Saudi Arabia has the capacity to increase production by 3 million bpd, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) could boost output by 1.4 million bpd if necessary.

In a separate development, Libya’s National Oil Corporation and its eastern-based government announced on Thursday the reopening of oil fields and export terminals, ending a leadership dispute that had severely curtailed the country’s oil production. According to Reuters, this resolution is expected to restore a significant portion of Libya’s crude supply to the global market.

 

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WTI Jumps Above $70 Amid Fears of Oil Supply Disruptions After Iran Missile Strike on Israel

WTI Surges Above $70 as Iran Missile Strike on Israel Sparks Fears in Global Oil Markets

WTI Surges Above $70 as Iran Missile Strike on Israel Sparks Fears in Global Oil Markets

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, climbed to around $70.65 on Wednesday. The surge comes after Iran launched missiles at Israel, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from the region.

Iran fired over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to vow retaliation. Tehran warned that any counterattack would lead to “vast destruction,” stoking fears of a broader conflict. Israel has also hinted at the possibility of striking Iranian oil facilities, which could escalate into a regional war, further heightening concerns about supply disruptions in the global oil market.
Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories fell less than expected last week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude stockpiles in the US declined by 1.5 million barrels for the week ending September 27, compared to the prior week’s 4.339 million barrel drop. Market expectations were for a decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

On the downside, recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, who pushed back against calls for a significant rate cut in November, could weigh on WTI prices. Powell acknowledged that more rate cuts are likely, given the economy’s solid footing, but he cautioned against making drastic adjustments too quickly.

Traders are closely watching speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, including Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Beth Hammack, Alberto Musalem, and Michelle Bowman, for further market guidance. Any hawkish signals from the Fed could pressure WTI prices. It’s also important to note that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, which typically boosts oil demand.

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WTI Holds Near $69.00 Amid Rising Middle East Supply Fears

WTI Holds Near $69.00 Amid Rising Middle East Supply Fears

WTI Holds Near $69.00 Amid Rising Middle East Supply Fears

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude holds steady around $69.20 per barrel during Monday’s Asian session, driven by rising concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from escalating conflict in the Middle East. Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly Israel’s intensified attacks on Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, have sparked fears of instability, which could push oil prices higher.

ANZ Research, as reported by Reuters, noted that the increasing likelihood of Iran’s involvement in the conflict is contributing to concerns, as Iran is a major oil producer and OPEC member. Over the weekend, Israel expanded its military campaign by bombing Houthi targets in Yemen, following the recent killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

On the other hand, oil prices are facing downward pressure from mixed economic data out of China, the world’s largest oil importer. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for September fell to 49.3, signaling contraction, while the NBS Manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.8, surpassing market expectations.

Oil traders are also keeping a close eye on China’s monetary stimulus measures aimed at boosting economic activity and energy demand. China recently announced a CNY 1 trillion capital injection into its largest state banks, marking the most significant financial move since the 2008 crisis.

However, potential headwinds for crude prices could come from Saudi Arabia’s plans to increase production. Saudi Arabia is expected to resume oil production on December 1, with OPEC+ agreeing to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day. Reports suggest that the Kingdom is committed to this increase, even if it temporarily pressures prices downward.

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WTI Extends Rally Above $70.00 as Hurricane Francine Disrupts Production

WTI Extends Rally Above $70.00 as Hurricane Francine Disrupts Production

WTI Extends Rally Above $70.00 as Hurricane Francine Disrupts Production

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.35 on Tuesday, continuing its rally as Hurricane Francine impacts oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico. The storm has caused significant disruptions, with the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) reporting on Monday that roughly 12% of crude oil production and 16% of natural gas output in the Gulf have been halted. This supply disruption has pushed WTI prices to two-week highs.

Adding to the bullish momentum, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Investors are increasingly betting on a 50 basis point rate cut, according to CME FedWatch. Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, which typically supports increased demand for oil.
However, ongoing concerns about Chinese demand may temper some of WTI’s gains. China, the world’s largest oil importer, continues to show signs of an economic slowdown. Over the weekend, data revealed that Chinese industrial production growth fell to a five-month low in August, with further deterioration in retail sales and new home prices.

Xtrememarkets market strategist Yeap Jun Rong highlighted that weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data has dampened market sentiment, raising doubts about future oil demand as China’s growth outlook remains sluggish. This could weigh on WTI’s upward momentum.

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WTI Falls to Around $72.50 as OPEC+ Plans Production Increase

WTI Falls to Around $72.50 as OPEC+ Plans Production Increase

WTI Falls to Around $72.50 as OPEC+ Plans Production Increase

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have declined for the second consecutive session, trading near $72.50 per barrel during Monday’s Asian trading hours. This downward trend is largely attributed to reports that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) are planning to increase oil production in the upcoming quarter.

According to a Reuters report citing six sources, OPEC+ is expected to proceed with a planned production increase starting in October. Specifically, eight OPEC+ member countries are set to boost their output by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month. This move is part of a broader strategy to gradually reverse a recent production cut of 2.2 million bpd while maintaining other cuts until the end of 2025.
However, the fall in crude oil prices could be mitigated by ongoing supply concerns. In Libya, oil export disruptions caused by conflicts between rival factions have constrained supply. Despite this, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company has resumed production, operating at up to 120,000 bpd to satisfy domestic demand.

Weak demand in China and the United States, the world’s largest oil consumers, could further weigh on WTI prices. An official survey indicated that China’s manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, accompanied by a sharp drop in factory gate prices. In response, Chinese policymakers are advancing plans to increase economic stimulus for households.

In the US, oil consumption in June hit its lowest seasonal levels since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) last Friday. Analysts at ANZ have highlighted potential downside risks to growth in 2025, driven by economic challenges in both China and the US. They suggest that OPEC may need to delay phasing out its voluntary production cuts if it aims to support higher oil prices.

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WTI Crude Oil Prices Remain Steady

WTI Crude Oil Prices Remain Steady Below $73 Amid US Recession Concerns and Easing Supply Fears

WTI Crude Oil Prices Remain Steady Below $73 Amid US Recession Concerns and Easing Supply Fears

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are struggling to build on Thursday’s rebound from a two-week low near the mid-$71 range, trading in a narrow band around $72.75 during Friday’s Asian session. The commodity remains nearly flat for the day and is set for significant weekly losses due to ongoing concerns about slowing demand.

The downward revision of US job growth figures for the year through March has reignited fears of a potential recession in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. Additionally, persistent concerns about an economic slowdown in China, the world’s top oil importer, are acting as headwinds for WTI crude. Meanwhile, optimism about a ceasefire in Gaza is also limiting the upside for oil prices, as US officials indicated that a truce between Israel and Hamas could be imminent. This development eases concerns over a broader conflict in the Middle East, a critical oil-producing region, and potential supply disruptions.

On the supportive side, US government data released on Wednesday revealed a substantial drawdown in crude oil inventories, suggesting strong domestic demand. Moreover, market expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates—potentially announcing a 25 basis point reduction at the September meeting—could boost economic activity, thereby supporting crude oil prices. Despite these factors, the US Dollar’s inability to sustain its recovery from year-to-date lows provides some support to USD-denominated commodities, including crude oil, mitigating the risk of further declines.

Given these mixed signals, traders are cautious about taking new positions and are awaiting clearer market direction before betting on an extension of the nearly two-week downtrend in WTI prices.

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Oil Edges Higher Ahead of Weekly Stockpile Reports

Oil Edges Higher Ahead of Weekly Stockpile Reports

Oil Edges Higher Ahead of Weekly Stockpile Reports

Oil prices are trading relatively flat on Wednesday after experiencing sharp declines over the past three sessions. The stabilization follows reports that a tanker in the Red Sea was attacked by Houthi rebels. Delta Tankers confirmed that its vessel, Sounion, sustained minor damage in the attack. This incident adds further tension to the region just as Hamas is reportedly considering a ceasefire proposal in Gaza from both Israel and the US.

Similarly, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trying to recover from a losing streak that erased all its gains for 2024. The key focus today is the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which could provide insights ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. Additionally, the Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision may result in adjustments to employment data for the past year, up until March.

At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude is trading at $73.23 per barrel, while Brent Crude is at $76.92 per barrel.

Oil Market Update: Red Sea Tensions and Stockpile Data

  • OPEC+ Production Constraints: OPEC+ is unlikely to increase production significantly due to concerns that higher output could further depress prices, especially with increased supply from the US and Brazil, according to BP’s Chief Economist Spencer Dale, as reported by Bloomberg.
  • Uganda’s Crude Development: Uganda’s Energy Minister, Ruth Nankabirwa, announced progress on a $20 billion Crude development project in partnership with TotalEnergies and Cnooc.
  • Tanker Incident: Delta Tankers reported that the Sounion tanker has been attacked three times and is still determining if the vessel remains on course or is adrift, according to Reuters.
  • Crude Stockpile Changes: The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a modest stockpile increase of 347,000 barrels overnight, which contrasts with analysts’ expectations of a 2.8 million barrel drawdown.

Later today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly Crude stockpile data. The previous report indicated a build of 1.357 million barrels, with expectations now for a drawdown of 2.8 million barrels.

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EUR/USD Falls Near 1.0800 Ahead of Key Eurozone and German GDP Data

EUR/USD Falls Near 1.0800 Ahead of Key Eurozone and German GDP Data

EUR/USD slipped on Wednesday, trading around 1.0810 in the Asian session after two days of gains. The Euro faces downward pressure amid expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may cut its Deposit Facility Rate again. Current market predictions indicate a nearly 50% probability of a 50 basis-point rate cut in the ECB’s December meeting.

Investors are awaiting preliminary GDP data from Germany and the Eurozone, alongside Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) report, scheduled for release on Wednesday. Attention will also turn to the preliminary U.S. Q3 GDP figures and October’s ADP Employment Change, set to release later that day.

ECB policymakers recently expressed mixed views on rate adjustments. Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium, suggested there’s no urgent need for accelerated rate cuts, allowing room for more moderate measures. In contrast, Mario Centeno, Governor of the Bank of Portugal, views a 50 basis-point cut as a viable option for December.

EUR/USD’s decline also reflects the strengthening U.S. Dollar, bolstered by rising Treasury yields. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Dollar against six major currencies, is around 104.30, with 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at 4.09% and 4.24%, respectively.

The pair could face additional pressure as the U.S. presidential election draws near. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed a tight race, with Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris holding a slim 1-point lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump, polling at 44% against Trump’s 43%.

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EUR/USD Slips Below 1.0550 Amid Awaited ECB Lagarde Speech and US PMI Data

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Holding Above 1.0800, Testing the Descending Channel’s Upper Boundary

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Holding Above 1.0800, Testing the Descending Channel’s Upper Boundary

The EUR/USD pair has eased back from its recent gains, trading near 1.0810 in the Asian session on Tuesday. On the daily chart, the pair is currently testing the upper boundary of the descending channel, hinting at a potential reinforcement of a bearish trend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key momentum indicator, is hovering slightly above 30. Should the RSI dip below this level, it would indicate an oversold state, suggesting a possible upward correction for the EUR/USD in the near term.

Further indicating bearish momentum, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains below the 14-day EMA. This setup aligns with ongoing downward price pressure and reflects weaker short-term momentum.

On the downside, the pair finds immediate support near the psychologically significant 1.0800 level, aligning with the upper boundary of the descending channel. If the price reenters this channel, it could prompt a further decline toward the 1.0600 level.

A drop below 1.0600 could amplify selling pressure, potentially driving the pair down to the lower boundary of the descending channel around 1.0680.

For resistance, the EUR/USD pair faces an initial hurdle at the nine-day EMA around 1.0826, followed by the 14-day EMA at 1.0855. A breakout above these levels might see the pair move toward the 1.0900 mark.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Steady Below 1.0800 Amid Speculation of a Less Dovish Fed Stance

EUR/USD Steady Below 1.0800 Amid Speculation of a Less Dovish Fed Stance

The EUR/USD pair remains stable around 1.0790 during Monday’s Asian trading hours, following previous session losses. However, it could face resistance from a strengthening U.S. Dollar (USD) as recent positive U.S. economic data fuels expectations for a potentially less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) stance in November.

On Friday, the U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed an increase to 70.5 in October from 68.9, exceeding the forecast of 69.0. Meanwhile, Durable Goods Orders fell by 0.8% month-over-month in September—less than the anticipated 1.0% decline, suggesting resilient consumer demand.

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could be enhancing the safe-haven appeal of the USD. Over the weekend, Israel conducted a targeted attack on Iran’s missile and air defense sites, reportedly in coordination with Washington. The restrained action, however, was narrower in scope than many had anticipated.

The USD’s strength is also supported by political uncertainty as the U.S. approaches its presidential election. Recently, former President Donald Trump’s allies encountered multiple court losses in key battleground states, potentially impacting the November 5 election outcome.

In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Klaas Knot emphasized the need for “keeping all options open” to manage risks to growth and inflation. Knot noted, “Retaining full optionality would serve as a hedge against risks impacting the growth and inflation outlook,” adding that the ECB’s meeting-by-meeting, data-driven approach has proven effective thus far, according to Reuters.

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USD/CAD Holds Near One-Week Low

USD/CAD Nears Two-Month Highs at 1.3850 as Traders Turn Cautious Before US Election

USD/CAD Nears Two-Month Highs at 1.3850 as Traders Turn Cautious Before US Election

The USD/CAD pair holds steady with two consecutive days of gains, trading around 1.3850 in Friday’s Asian session. This level sits close to Thursday’s two-month high of 1.3868. The US Dollar’s strength underpins the pair’s resilience, fueled by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less aggressive stance on interest rate cuts.

Speculation surrounding the US presidential election in November is also boosting the Dollar, with former President Donald Trump gaining attention. His inflation-focused policies, including higher tariffs and tax cuts, are thought to be adding upward pressure on the Greenback.

During a rally in Las Vegas on Thursday, Trump emphasized his administration’s commitment to economic growth for all Americans, including African American, Hispanic, and Asian American communities, as reported by Reuters. Meanwhile, in Georgia, Vice President Kamala Harris held a rally with the support of prominent figures, including Bruce Springsteen, Tyler Perry, and former President Barack Obama, drawing thousands in the battleground state.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD), sensitive to commodity prices, is facing pressure as crude oil prices decline. Canada, the largest oil exporter to the US, is affected by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude’s drop, currently marking its third consecutive day of losses and trading around $70.20 per barrel.

Traders are watching for Canada’s Retail Sales data, due later in the North American session, and Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem’s speech at the IMF meeting, which could provide further insights into Canada’s economic outlook.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Rebounds from Multi-Month Low, Eyes 1.0800 Ahead of Flash PMIs

EUR/USD Rebounds from Multi-Month Low, Eyes 1.0800 Ahead of Flash PMIs

The EUR/USD pair is showing signs of recovery during Thursday’s Asian session, breaking a three-day losing streak that saw it hit its lowest level since early July, near the 1.0760 region. Spot prices have edged closer to the 1.0800 level in recent hours, buoyed by a slight pullback in the US Dollar (USD). However, bullish traders should exercise caution due to underlying market conditions.

A retreat in US Treasury yields from a three-month high has led to some profit-taking on the USD, following its recent rally to levels last seen in late July. Still, the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may implement only modest rate cuts, coupled with investor caution ahead of the November 5 US Presidential election, could provide support for the USD as a safe-haven currency. Additionally, dovish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to limit any significant upward movement for the EUR/USD pair.

Eurozone inflation fell to 1.7% in September, dipping below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since June 2021. This reinforces the ECB’s view that inflationary pressures are easing and supports the likelihood of further policy easing. On Wednesday, ECB official Mario Centeno noted that downside risks are prominent for both growth and inflation, hinting that a 50 basis point rate cut in December is under consideration. Similarly, ECB’s Bostjan Vasle highlighted data suggesting potential delays in the expected recovery in growth.

Given these factors, traders may be hesitant to make aggressive bullish moves on the euro, keeping any upside for the EUR/USD in check. The focus now shifts to the upcoming flash PMI releases from the Eurozone and the US, which could offer fresh insights into global economic health and shape market sentiment. In the meantime, movements in US bond yields will also play a key role in driving USD fluctuations. Despite the current uptick, the broader fundamental outlook suggests that the EUR/USD may face downward pressure.

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GBP/USD Tests 1.3000, Faces Challenges Amid BoE Dovish Outlook

GBP/USD Tests 1.3000, Faces Challenges Amid BoE Dovish Outlook

GBP/USD Tests 1.3000, Faces Challenges Amid BoE Dovish Outlook

The GBP/USD pair moved closer to the 1.3000 mark during Wednesday’s Asian session, though the British Pound (GBP) encountered resistance due to weaker UK economic data. Falling consumer and producer inflation, alongside disappointing labor market figures, have raised market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) might cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, with another quarter-point reduction anticipated in December.

On Tuesday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stressed the need for the central bank to improve oversight of the opaque non-banking financial sector. Speaking at a Bloomberg event in New York, Bailey stated, “We are nearing a shift from rule-making to surveillance” to better monitor financial activities outside traditional banking.

Additionally, BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is set to participate in a panel discussion on financial regulation hosted by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) in Washington on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) strengthened as US Treasury yields rose, driven by the growing likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, is hovering near a two-month high at 104.20. Yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds have also climbed, sitting at 4.05% and 4.23%, respectively.

In a recent post on social media platform X, Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, noted that the US economy is in a stronger position, with inflation cooling and the labor market stabilizing.

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EUR/USD Oscillates Above 1.0800, Bearish Risks Remain

EUR/USD Oscillates Above 1.0800, Bearish Risks Remain

EUR/USD Oscillates Above 1.0800, Bearish Risks Remain

The EUR/USD pair is currently in a bearish consolidation phase during Tuesday’s Asian session, fluctuating around the 1.0820 mark, just above its lowest level since early August, which was reached the day before. The short-term outlook remains skewed toward bearish sentiment, indicating that the pair may still trend lower.

On Monday, data showed that Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, experienced a drop in producer prices for the first time in seven months in September, with the annual deflation rate accelerating. This fueled expectations of additional monetary easing from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB policymaker Gediminas Simkus hinted that further interest rate cuts could be necessary if inflation continues to fall, which could weigh on the Euro. Combined with a stronger US Dollar, this supports a bearish outlook for EUR/USD.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of other currencies, is holding near its highest level since early August. This strength is bolstered by the belief that the Federal Reserve will implement modest interest rate cuts. Additionally, concerns over increased deficit spending after the November 5 US presidential election have driven US Treasury yields to a nearly three-month high. Ongoing geopolitical risks are also supporting the safe-haven dollar, adding to the downward pressure on EUR/USD.

With no significant economic data scheduled for release from the Eurozone on Tuesday, attention will shift to the US Richmond Manufacturing Index and a speech by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, which could impact USD price movements. Despite these events, the broader fundamentals suggest that any short-term recovery in EUR/USD could be viewed as a selling opportunity, with limited upside potential.

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US Core PCE Inflation Likely to Hold Steady

Pound Sterling Steady Ahead of US Core PCE Inflation Data

Pound Sterling Steady Ahead of US Core PCE Inflation Data

The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains subdued against the US Dollar (USD) during Friday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair has edged down this week as investors exercise caution ahead of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for May, set to be released today.

The core PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, is projected to have slowed to 2.6% year-over-year (YoY) from April’s 2.8%. On a monthly basis, the underlying inflation is expected to have increased modestly by 0.1%, compared to the previous rise of 0.2%.

Soft inflation figures could raise expectations for early rate cuts by the Fed, while higher-than-expected numbers would likely diminish prospects for rate cuts, thereby strengthening the US Dollar. Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is trading near the critical resistance level of 106.00.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day fed funds futures pricing data indicate that traders have priced in two rate cuts for this year, with the policy-easing cycle expected to begin at the September meeting. However, Fed officials have been advocating for maintaining current interest rates until there is clear evidence that inflation is on a steady decline towards the target rate of 2%.

On Thursday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated that it is not yet appropriate to reduce interest rates, warning of potential further rate hikes if progress in reducing inflation stalls or reverses. This stance underscores the Fed’s cautious approach to policy changes, aiming to ensure that inflation trends are firmly under control before considering any rate cuts.

As the market awaits the core PCE data, the GBP/USD pair is likely to continue experiencing subdued trading. Investors will be closely watching the inflation figures to gauge the Fed’s next moves, which will significantly influence the USD’s strength and the GBP/USD pair’s direction in the near term.

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Australian Dollar Rises as Higher Inflation

Australian Dollar Rises as Higher Inflation Lowers RBA Rate Cut Odds

Australian Dollar Rises as Higher Inflation Lowers RBA Rate Cut Odds

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has gained traction following the release of May’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which came in higher than expected. This persistently high inflation poses a challenge to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) potential rate cuts, thereby providing support to the Aussie Dollar and underpinning the AUD/USD pair.

RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent highlighted on Wednesday the importance of vigilance regarding potential inflation increases. Kent emphasized that current policies are effectively contributing to slower demand growth and lower inflation. He also noted that the RBA is keeping all options open concerning future interest rate adjustments, as reported by Bloomberg.

This rise in the AUD comes as the US Dollar remains steady after posting gains on Tuesday. Investors are cautious ahead of significant US economic data releases later this week. The revised US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) is set to be released on Thursday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. These data points are critical as they will provide insights into the health of the US economy and influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.

The stronger-than-expected CPI data in Australia reflects ongoing inflationary pressures, which complicates the RBA’s policy path. With inflation remaining high, the central bank may be less inclined to cut interest rates, a factor that supports the AUD. Investors are now weighing the implications of these inflation figures on future RBA decisions, particularly in the context of global economic uncertainty.

In the US, the market is anticipating the GDP and PCE Price Index data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next moves. A robust GDP report could reinforce the case for a continued pause in rate hikes, whereas a weaker report might revive expectations for potential easing. Similarly, the PCE Price Index, being the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, will be closely watched. A higher reading could lead to a more hawkish stance from the Fed, while a lower figure might ease some inflation concerns.

Overall, the interplay between the Australian and US economic data is creating a dynamic environment for the AUD/USD pair. As traders digest these developments, the focus remains on central bank policies and their responses to inflationary pressures. The outcome of this week’s economic reports will be crucial in shaping the near-term direction of both currencies.

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Australian Dollar Falls Despite RBA's Hawkish Outlook

Australian Dollar Falls Despite RBA’s Hawkish Outlook

Australian Dollar Falls Despite RBA’s Hawkish Outlook

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its downward trend for the third consecutive session on Monday, yet there are indications that the decline in the AUD/USD exchange rate might be moderated by the monetary policy outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). During a recent press conference, as reported by ABC News, RBA Governor Michele Bullock explicitly mentioned that the Board is considering potential rate hikes in the future, rather than cuts, highlighting a hawkish stance in their monetary policy approach.

On the other side, the US Dollar (USD) holds its ground, remaining stable as Federal Reserve officials have pushed back the timeline for the year’s first anticipated rate cut. The adjustment in expectations was quantified by the CME FedWatch Tool, which now indicates that investors are pricing in a nearly 65.9% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, a decrease from 70.2% just a week earlier. This recalibration in investor expectations reflects a broader trend of cautious optimism and strategic adjustments among market participants, influencing the interplay between the AUD and USD as each navigates its respective economic signals and policy directions.

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Australian Dollar Rises on Strong PMI Data

Australian Dollar Rises on Strong PMI Data and Softer US Dollar

Australian Dollar Rises on Strong PMI Data and Softer US Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) saw mild gains during Thursday’s Asian session, edging higher following the release of the Australian Judo Bank PMI report. The report indicated that business activity in Australia continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in March and April. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent decision to maintain a hawkish stance on interest rates is likely to support the AUD in the near term.

However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose potential risks. Israeli officials have reiterated their readiness for an all-out war against Hezbollah, which could drive investors towards safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar (USD). Such geopolitical uncertainties often lead to increased demand for the USD, as it is considered a safer asset during times of conflict.

Looking ahead, the focus will shift to the advanced US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI data set to be released on Friday. If this data shows an improvement in US business activity for June, it could further bolster the Greenback. Stronger US economic data typically supports the USD by increasing expectations of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This scenario could create a headwind for the AUD/USD pair, potentially limiting the Australian Dollar’s gains.

Despite these potential challenges, the AUD remains supported by domestic factors. The Australian Judo Bank PMI report, while showing a slowdown, still indicates growth in business activity. This resilience, coupled with the RBA’s hawkish stance, provides a solid foundation for the AUD. The central bank’s commitment to maintaining a tight monetary policy reflects confidence in the Australian economy’s underlying strength, which is likely to continue bolstering the currency.

In summary, the Australian Dollar is experiencing moderate gains supported by domestic economic data and the RBA’s monetary policy stance. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and upcoming US economic data could influence the AUD/USD pair’s direction. Traders will need to monitor these developments closely, as they could impact market sentiment and drive short-term fluctuations in the currency pair. The interplay between domestic resilience and external uncertainties will be crucial in determining the AUD’s trajectory in the coming days.

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Australian Dollar Rises on RBA's Hawkish Stance

Australian Dollar Rises on RBA’s Hawkish Stance

Australian Dollar Rises on RBA’s Hawkish Stance

The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged on Wednesday, driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance during its June meeting. The RBA’s decision to maintain current interest rates while signaling a prolonged period before any rate cuts has pushed market expectations for the start of the easing cycle to 2025. This outlook continues to support the AUD, providing it with significant upward momentum.

In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) is facing downward pressure due to weaker-than-expected Retail Sales data, which has increased the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates later this year. This data has undermined the Greenback across the board, adding to the AUD’s gains.

The US markets are closed on Wednesday in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day, limiting immediate trading activity. However, investors are already looking ahead to the end of the week when the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI reports will be released. These reports are crucial indicators of US economic health, and any signs of expanding business activity could provide a lift to the USD, potentially capping the AUD’s current upward trend.

The RBA’s hawkish hold has been a significant factor in the AUD’s recent performance. By maintaining rates and signaling a delay in the easing cycle, the RBA has reinforced market confidence in the Australian economy. This stance contrasts with the Fed’s, which is increasingly seen as likely to implement rate cuts in response to softer economic data. The divergence in central bank policies is a key driver of the current currency movements.

In addition to central bank policies, economic data releases continue to play a pivotal role. The weaker US Retail Sales figures have cast doubt on the strength of the US economic recovery, fueling speculation about potential Fed rate cuts. Conversely, robust Australian economic data supports the RBA’s decision to hold rates steady and delay any easing.

Looking ahead, the focus will shift to the upcoming US PMI reports. Positive data indicating growth in US business activity could bolster the USD, limiting the AUD’s gains. However, if the data disappoints, it could further pressure the USD and support the AUD.

In summary, the Australian Dollar is benefiting from the RBA’s hawkish stance and weaker US economic data, which have shifted market expectations for both currencies. The upcoming US PMI reports will be crucial in determining the near-term direction for the AUD/USD pair.

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China's May Retail Sales Exceed Expectations

China’s May Retail Sales Exceed Expectations; Industrial Output and Investment Lag

China’s May Retail Sales Exceed Expectations; Industrial Output and Investment Lag

In May, China’s retail sales outperformed expectations, increasing by 3.7% year-on-year, surpassing the anticipated 3% rise forecasted by a Reuters poll of economists. This robust retail performance indicates resilient consumer spending despite broader economic challenges.

However, other key economic indicators did not fare as well. Industrial output grew by 5.6% year-on-year, falling short of the 6% growth expected. Fixed asset investment also missed forecasts, rising by only 4% compared to last May, just below the anticipated 4.2% increase. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.92 trillion yuan ($540.32 billion), with urban area sales up 3.7% and rural area sales climbing by 4.1%.

The shortfall in fixed asset investment was significantly influenced by a sharper decline in real estate investment. Excluding real estate, total fixed asset investment was 8.6% higher compared to the previous year. This highlights the ongoing struggles within China’s real estate sector, which continues to drag on overall investment figures.

The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5% in May, unchanged from April, and 0.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year. This steady unemployment rate suggests a relatively stable labor market amid fluctuating economic conditions.

China’s export sector showed strength, with exports growing by 7.6% year-on-year in May, exceeding the forecasted 6% increase. However, imports underperformed, rising by only 1.8%, missing expectations.

Loan data released Friday highlighted a continued lackluster demand for credit. Outstanding yuan loans increased by 9.3% in May from the previous year, marking the slowest growth on record since 1978. The M1 money supply, which includes cash in circulation and demand deposits, fell by 4.2% year-on-year in May, the steepest decline since records began in 1986. Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that a state media outlet linked the slowdown in M1 growth to a crackdown on fake loans and outflows related to wealth management products.

Inflation data for May showed that consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year. This modest inflation increase indicates subdued price pressures within the broader economy, reflecting the mixed economic signals from various sectors.

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Japanese Yen's Downside Limited

Japanese Yen’s Downside Limited by Rising Producer Prices

Japanese Yen’s Downside Limited by Rising Producer Prices

The Japanese Yen (JPY) extended its losing streak for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY pair strengthening as investors favored the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision and the release of US inflation figures for May, scheduled for later in the North American trading hours.

The Japanese Yen might find some support from higher-than-expected Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The latest data revealed that producer prices surged by 2.4% year-on-year in May, surpassing market expectations of a 2.0% rise. This increase in producer prices has raised concerns about potential higher consumer inflation, which could influence future monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Despite the rise in producer prices, the BoJ is widely expected to maintain its current monetary policy stance unchanged on Friday. The divergence in interest rates between the US and Japan continues to undermine the Japanese Yen. The Fed’s tighter monetary policy contrasts sharply with the BoJ’s ongoing commitment to maintaining low-interest rates, creating a supportive environment for the USD/JPY pair.

The strength of the US Dollar is further bolstered by robust US economic data. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against six major currencies, remains strong. Recent US jobs data for May showed significant employment gains, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September by at least 25 basis points has decreased to 52%, down from 67% a week earlier.

Investors are now closely watching the upcoming US inflation data. A higher inflation reading could further diminish expectations for a Fed rate cut, potentially providing additional support for the USD. Conversely, if inflation data comes in lower than expected, it might renew market speculation about possible rate cuts later in the year, which could influence the USD/JPY pair.

In the meantime, the Japanese Yen’s downside might be limited by the unexpected rise in producer prices, which suggests underlying inflationary pressures in Japan. If these pressures translate into higher consumer prices, the BoJ may face increasing calls to adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy, which could lend support to the Yen.

Overall, the interplay between US monetary policy expectations and Japanese inflation data will be crucial in determining the direction of the USD/JPY pair in the near term. Investors will continue to monitor these factors closely, as any significant shifts could lead to notable movements in the currency markets.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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