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Gold Price Pressured Near Daily Low Amid Trump-Driven USD Strength

Gold Price Pressured Near Daily Low Amid Trump-Driven USD Strength

Gold Price Pressured Near Daily Low Amid Trump-Driven USD Strength

Gold (XAU/USD) continues last week’s slide, facing additional selling pressure for a second day on Monday amid a robust US Dollar (USD) outlook. Optimism over US President-elect Donald Trump’s anticipated expansionary policies has bolstered the USD, pushing it near a four-month high reached last week, which in turn dampens demand for gold.

Trump’s proposal for a 10% tariff on all US imports is expected to drive inflation higher and constrain the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ability to adopt aggressive easing measures. Elevated US Treasury bond yields have supported this outlook, prompting investors to move away from non-yielding assets like gold. However, a cautious market sentiment may help contain further losses for the safe-haven metal.

With key events on the horizon, including the latest US inflation data and speeches from prominent FOMC members like Fed Chair Jerome Powell, traders may adopt a wait-and-see approach. This caution could prevent a further extension of gold’s recent sharp pullback from the $2,800 mark, an all-time high set on October 31.

Gold Price Bears in Control as USD Holds Firm

Gold’s sharp weekly decline—the steepest in over five months—has been fueled by the USD rally and rising Treasury yields following Trump’s election victory. Enthusiasm surrounding the so-called “Trump trade” continues to boost the Greenback, exerting downward pressure on gold as equity markets remain upbeat.

Last week, the Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, hinting at potential further easing. Despite this, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized the need for more evidence of inflation returning to the 2% target before considering further cuts. Expectations that Trump’s protectionist policies may amplify global trade tensions could also offer support to the safe-haven XAU/USD.

With upcoming US inflation, producer price, and retail sales reports, as well as key comments from Fed officials, investors may avoid large positions, awaiting new cues that will shape the USD’s direction and influence gold’s trajectory.

Technical Outlook: Gold Remains Near Multi-Week Low with Key Support Levels

Technically, further declines in gold may find support around $2,660, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) positioned near $2,647-2,746. A break below last week’s low of $2,643 could trigger increased bearish sentiment, potentially accelerating the decline toward the October low of $2,605-2,602.

On the upside, a move above $2,700 could face strong resistance at the $2,718 level, with a further hurdle in the $2,740-2,745 supply zone. Sustained strength beyond this range could signal the end of the corrective phase, potentially driving gold toward $2,758-2,790 and challenging the record high set on October 31.

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Japanese Yen Stabilizes Against USD Amid Mixed Market Signals

Japanese Yen Stabilizes Against USD Amid Mixed Market Signals

Japanese Yen Stabilizes Against USD Amid Mixed Market Signals

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains range-bound against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, fluctuating between slight gains and losses in early European trading. Despite recent verbal intervention from Japanese authorities to support the JPY, skepticism around the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to implement further rate hikes limits the currency’s upward potential.

Optimism around potential growth and inflation from Trump’s economic policies also provides a tailwind for US Treasury yields, overshadowing the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance. This, combined with renewed buying interest in the USD, helps cushion the USD/JPY pair from further declines.

Yen Under Pressure Despite Intervention and Economic Data Weakness

On Friday, Japanese government data revealed a second consecutive month of declines in household spending, with a 1.3% drop in September, following a similar trend in inflation-adjusted wages. These economic headwinds may challenge the BoJ’s ability to pursue additional rate hikes.

Further impacting the Yen, Japanese officials reiterated their commitment to monitoring the foreign exchange market closely. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi emphasized a high level of urgency, while Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura indicated the government’s readiness to counter excessive currency movements. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato expressed concern over the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on Japan’s domestic economy.

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair rebounded above 154.00 following Trump’s election victory, prompting verbal intervention from Japan’s leadership. Quarterly data from the Ministry of Finance (MOF) revealed ¥5.53 trillion spent on currency interventions between June and July.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Maintains Bullish Bias Above Key Support Levels

Technically, the USD/JPY’s recent dip found support near the 152.70–152.65 level, a pivotal area that may now act as a buffer. A break below this could accelerate a correction towards the 152.00 mark, with further downside potentially reaching the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 151.70–151.65. Continued selling pressure would signal that the pair’s strong recent uptrend has stalled, opening the door for deeper declines.

On the upside, resistance is expected around the 153.50 level, followed by a key supply zone near 153.85–153.90. A move back above 154.00 could position the pair to retest Thursday’s multi-month high around 154.70, with momentum potentially extending to the psychological 155.00 level and the 155.20 zone, which aligns with the July 30 swing high.

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Gold Price Sinks to Multi-Week Low as Trump Victory Spurs Sharp USD Rally

Gold Price Sinks to Multi-Week Low as Trump Victory Spurs Sharp USD Rally

Gold (XAU/USD) faces heavy selling pressure in Wednesday’s European session, dropping to the $2,700 level—its lowest in nearly three weeks. Republican candidate Donald Trump is leading the US presidential race, positioning him as the likely 47th president, which has sparked a strong US Dollar (USD) rally and triggered aggressive gold sell-offs.

Additionally, concerns over deficit spending and expectations of less aggressive easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed) are pushing US Treasury yields higher, making gold less attractive as a non-yielding asset. The risk-on sentiment, illustrated by a strong rally in US equity futures, further signals a downward bias for the safe-haven XAU/USD.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold Price Hit by Persistent USD Buying

The US Dollar surged to a four-month high as US election exit polls indicate momentum in favor of former President Donald Trump. The current electoral tally stands at 227 for Trump and 189 for Harris, with Trump leading in key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Fox News reports a Republican-controlled Senate, as Trump-endorsed candidate Bernie Moreno is projected to win in Ohio.

With Trump performing strongly, speculation over inflationary tariffs and deficit-spending has driven US Treasury yields higher. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield spiked nearly 15 basis points, reaching 4.44%, its highest since early July. The reduced uncertainty surrounding the US election has intensified risk-on trading, adding pressure on safe-haven gold.

Geopolitical concerns, including Iran’s potential retaliation against Israel for an October 26 attack, have had limited impact on gold’s recent decline.

Technical Outlook: Gold Price Tests Key Support Levels

From a technical perspective, the $2,725-2,720 zone remains critical support; a drop below this could see gold accelerate toward sub-$2,700 levels, marking the lower edge of an ascending channel from late July. A decisive break below could lead to further declines toward the next key support at $2,675, and potentially to the $2,657-2,655 area.

Conversely, resistance has formed around $2,748-2,750. A sustained move above this could push gold toward the ascending channel resistance near $2,780-2,785, with $2,800 acting as a pivotal level. A strong breakout beyond $2,800 could signal a continuation of the previous uptrend.

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Australian Dollar Holds Gains Following Hawkish RBA Comments, Focus Shifts to US Election

Australian Dollar Holds Gains Following Hawkish RBA Comments, Focus Shifts to US Election

Australian Dollar Holds Gains Following Hawkish RBA Comments, Focus Shifts to US Election

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains steady after gains from improved Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% for an eighth consecutive pause in November, and it’s expected to maintain current rates following this policy decision.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock highlighted the importance of maintaining restrictive interest rates amid ongoing inflation risks. Although the labor market remains tight, wage growth is showing signs of moderation.

In Australia, Judo Bank’s Services PMI rose to 51.0 in October, exceeding the market consensus of 50.6, while the Composite PMI climbed to 50.2 from 49.8. China’s Caixin Services PMI also improved, rising to 52.0 in October from 50.3 in September, signaling a broader regional economic uplift.

As attention turns to the US presidential election, investors are closely monitoring its outcome. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris made final campaign stops in Pennsylvania on Monday, both expressing confidence in an exceptionally close race. Opinion polls show a virtual tie, with the final results potentially delayed for days. Trump has hinted at contesting any unfavorable result, as he did in 2020.

The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure amid election uncertainties, with a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leading Trump by a narrow margin in Iowa, 47% to 44%. Markets are also awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision on Thursday, with expectations for a modest 25 basis point rate cut, backed by a 99.5% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Australian inflation indicators are mixed, with the TD-MI Inflation Gauge rising by 0.3% month-over-month in October, the highest since July. ANZ Australia Job Advertisements grew by 0.3% in October, a slowdown from September’s revised 2.3% gain. Despite weaker growth, job advertisements have risen for two consecutive months.

In other news, China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australia’s Trade Minister Don Farrell on Sunday to discuss enhancing bilateral trade and ensuring fair treatment for Chinese businesses in Australia.

In US employment data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a modest 12,000 increase in October’s Nonfarm Payrolls, significantly below expectations of 113,000. However, the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%, in line with forecasts.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Holds Below 0.6600 with Bearish Trend Indications

AUD/USD trades near 0.6590 on Tuesday, with technical indicators suggesting the bearish trend may be easing as it tests the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, indicating the bearish sentiment persists.

On the resistance side, AUD/USD faces immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA at 0.6596, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6618. A break above these levels could see the pair aim for the psychological level of 0.6700.

On the downside, support lies near the three-month low of 0.6536, with further support at the key psychological level of 0.6500 if bearish pressure resumes.

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Australian Dollar Steady Amid RBA’s Restrictive Policy Outlook

Australian Dollar remains subdued as US Dollar inches higher ahead of US PCE Price Index

Australian Dollar remains subdued as US Dollar inches higher ahead of US PCE Price Index

The Australian Dollar lingered in that strange, somber limbo it often found itself in, steady yet subdued against the mighty Greenback as Thursday dawned over the global market. Beneath the surface, there was a story in each data point, and the numbers came in trickling like beads of dew.

In Australia, retail sales lifted only by a whisper, 0.1% in September—fragile and disappointing, falling far short of the golden 0.3% expected, and a pale echo of August’s more confident 0.7%. Yet the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish stance lent the Aussie Dollar a quiet backbone, helping it hold its ground even in the face of the looming U.S. PCE Price Index.

Across the Pacific, the U.S. Dollar gathered momentum with an aura of steadfast resilience as markets weighed in on the uncertainty, the shadows of the upcoming U.S. presidential election casting a long reflection over the currency. Yet even the Greenback found headwinds as U.S. growth data came in, slower than last quarter, reminding investors of the delicate line between expectations and reality.

China’s PMI figures trickled in with cautious optimism—the Manufacturing PMI edged above fifty, a shy ascent to 50.1, modestly outperforming the expectation, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI held its stance with a gentle rise to 50.2. The ADP report from the U.S. cast a brighter hue, with job growth well beyond the forecasts—a glimmer of vibrancy in an otherwise cautious economy.

Technical analysts cast a wary eye on the charts; AUD/USD hovered, almost defiantly, near 0.6570. The bearish trend traced its course along a descending channel, while the 14-day RSI lingered just above thirty, hinting at sentiment as overcast as a gray autumn morning. If the pair ventured south, it might test 0.6510, even touching the hallowed psychological 0.6500. And if resistance came calling? The journey might meander up to 0.6580 or the elusive 0.6600, where, in whispers, a breakout toward 0.6608 could still glisten on the horizon like an ephemeral Gatsby green light.

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Japanese Yen Struggles as BoJ Decision Looms; US Data in Focus

Japanese Yen Struggles as BoJ Decision Looms; US Data in Focus

The Japanese Yen (JPY) edged higher against the US Dollar during the Asian session on Wednesday, but gains remain limited as the currency hovers near a three-month low. Concerns that Japanese authorities may intervene to support the Yen lend it some resilience; however, uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) upcoming rate decision keeps JPY appreciation capped.

Market sentiment suggests the recent loss of parliamentary majority by Japan’s ruling coalition may hinder the BoJ’s ability to tighten policy. The Yen’s upward movement is further limited by a global risk-on environment and a resurgence in US Dollar (USD) demand, with traders awaiting the BoJ’s rate decision and critical US economic data releases this week for new market direction.

Market Movers: Yen’s Struggles Persist as Political and Economic Concerns Grow

Japan’s Economy Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, cautioned that a weak Yen could drive up prices via import costs, potentially squeezing household incomes if wages do not keep pace, which would dampen private consumption. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato added that authorities are closely monitoring currency movements, increasing speculation of potential intervention.

Japan’s political uncertainty adds complexity to the BoJ’s policy path, restraining any significant gains for the Yen amid a favorable risk appetite. The USD remains steady after nearing highs seen since July 30, while the USD/JPY pair holds close to recent peaks despite limited downside in anticipation of central bank announcements.

The BoJ will announce its policy decision at the end of its two-day meeting on Thursday, while key US data releases may provide additional cues on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. Recent robust US data, including Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Index jump to 108.7—a nine-month high—reflect optimism in the economy, offsetting weaker job openings in September.

Technical Outlook: Limited Downside for USD/JPY; Bulls Target a Break Beyond 154.00

From a technical standpoint, last week’s breakout above the 150.65 confluence, marking the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-September decline, suggests potential for further gains. However, recent failures to consolidate beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci level raise caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers near the overbought zone, suggesting a period of consolidation or slight pullback may be needed before additional upside.

Support levels emerge at 153.00, with further potential down to 152.40 and 152.00. Conversely, a breakout beyond the 154.00 threshold could push USD/JPY to test the 154.35-154.40 region, with the psychological 155.00 level in view, and potentially the July peak around 155.20.

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Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Month

Japanese Yen Faces Selling Pressure Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty

Japanese Yen Faces Selling Pressure Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty

The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces challenges to start the week as market participants digest the implications of Japan’s general election results. Meanwhile, the only data on the U.S. docket is the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ Texas Manufacturing Business Index for October. Later in the day, the U.S. Treasury will auction 2-year and 5-year notes, events closely watched by investors for potential impact on yields and the USD.

In a surprising election outcome, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in power since 1955, lost its majority for the first time in 15 years, heightening economic and political uncertainty. According to NHK, the ruling LDP and coalition partner Komeito secured only 215 out of 465 lower house seats, short of the 233 needed for a majority. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) gained significantly, winning 148 seats, up from 98.

Following this development, USD/JPY opened the week with a bullish gap, touching a near three-month high around 154.00 before trading slightly lower at 153.50, marking a 0.7% daily gain. Reflecting broader Yen weakness, EUR/JPY is up over 0.6% at 165.50, and GBP/JPY has climbed 0.7% to 198.70.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed last week with a solid gain, rising more than 0.8% and edging higher toward 104.50 in early Monday trading, supported by positive U.S. stock index futures indicating an improved risk sentiment.

In other markets, EUR/USD extended its downtrend on Friday, marking a fourth consecutive week of losses. The pair holds steady near 1.0800 as the European session begins on Monday. GBP/USD remained in a consolidation phase around 1.2950 after losing recovery momentum on Friday.

Meanwhile, gold saw bullish momentum on Friday, climbing back from a dip below $2,720. XAU/USD remains range-bound early Monday, trading below $2,750 as it struggles to establish a clear directional move.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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WTI Drops Below $85, Eyes US-Venezuela Oil Deal Amid Middle East Tensions

WTI Drops Below $85, Eyes US-Venezuela Oil Deal Amid Middle East Tensions

The Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price fell for the second consecutive day, trading at around $85.10 per barrel during the Asian session on Tuesday. This decline is attributed to reports suggesting that the United States and Venezuela may reach an agreement that could lead to an increase in global oil production.

There are indications that the US and Venezuelan governments are considering signing a pact as early as Tuesday. This potential agreement would involve relaxing sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry in exchange for a “competitive, monitored presidential election” in the country, according to Reuters.

The prospect of such a deal carries significant implications for the oil market, as it could result in an increase in oil supply, potentially capping higher prices. This development occurs in the context of output cuts by major oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia and Russia, which have been influencing the dynamics of the global oil industry.

However, the market seems to be taking a cautious approach, with traders awaiting further cues and developments related to the Middle East conflict.

Additionally, the ongoing Middle East conflict between Israel and Hamas is contributing to the upward movement in oil prices. Despite diplomatic efforts to arrange a ceasefire, they have so far been unsuccessful.

The heightened geopolitical tension in the region raises the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East, which could have implications for oil supplies from the world’s top oil-producing region. These developments are seen as a potential tailwind for crude oil prices, as concerns over potential supply disruptions contribute to market uncertainties.

Recent developments also involve the United States imposing sanctions on two shipping companies as part of a more stringent stance against Russia. Given Russia’s significant role in global crude oil exports, increased scrutiny from the US on its shipments has the potential to impact the global oil supply.

In addition, according to the latest Reuters poll, there is an expectation of a slowdown in China’s economy during the third quarter, with a forecast indicating a year-on-year GDP growth rate of 4.4%, down from 6.3% in the second quarter. The quarter-on-quarter GDP forecast for Q3 is 1.0%. The poll anticipates China’s economy to grow by 5.0% in 2023.

These data collectively suggest a progressively softer outlook for the Chinese economy, primarily attributed to weakening domestic demand conditions. The potential impact extends beyond the domestic economy, as China holds the position of the largest oil importer globally.

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Gold Price Maintains Minor Gains Amid Uncertainty

Gold Maintains One-Week High Amid Israel-Palestinian Conflict Gains

Gold Maintains One-Week High Amid Israel-Palestinian Conflict Gains

The gold market has experienced a week of consistent gains, with prices holding steady above the $1,860 mark. These gains are primarily attributed to the ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Palestine, which have heightened global risk sentiment. Investors seeking a safe haven have turned to the precious metal as a refuge amidst the uncertainty.

Another factor contributing to the upward trajectory of gold prices is the retreat in U.S. Treasury bond yields. This retreat is a consequence of shifting expectations regarding further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Recent comments from Fed officials, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, have signaled a more cautious approach to future rate increases. The rise in long-term U.S. Treasury bond yields has been seen as a useful tool in the fight against inflation. This change in the Fed’s tone has led to a decrease in U.S. Treasury bond yields and has also put pressure on the U.S. Dollar. These factors collectively contribute to the continued rise in the price of gold.

However, it’s important to note that the market is still factoring in the possibility of at least one more rate hike by the Fed before the end of the year. This expectation may limit the downside for U.S. bond yields and the U.S. Dollar. As a result, investors are closely monitoring key events and data releases this week.

The upcoming release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes and U.S. consumer inflation figures is expected to provide further insights into potential policy shifts by the Fed. These events will be closely watched by investors as they seek clarity on the central bank’s future actions.

Gold’s recent ascent comes after a recovery from a seven-month low reached last Friday. The precious metal has gained over $50 in value since then. However, despite the positive momentum in the gold market, the prevailing favorable environment for global equities has created some resistance for gold. Traders are cautious about making significant new bets on the commodity given the ongoing economic landscape.

In the days ahead, as the market digests key U.S. economic data releases and the FOMC meeting minutes, investors will be monitoring these developments closely to gauge their potential impact on the Fed’s future monetary policy decisions and, consequently, the direction of gold prices.

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WTI Hits Three-Week Low at $86.95 Amid Stronger USD

WTI Hits Three-Week Low at $86.95 Amid Stronger USD

As of October 3, 2023, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the United States’ benchmark for oil prices, is trading at approximately $86.95 per barrel, marking a significant three-week low. This decline represents the fifth consecutive day of negative movement in WTI prices, with the primary driving force behind this trend being the robust performance of the U.S. dollar and mounting concerns regarding the potential consequences of higher interest rates on oil consumption.

One of the key contributors to the strengthening U.S. dollar is the recent release of economic data showing a notable uptick in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for September. The index rose to 49.0 from its previous reading of 47.6, signaling a continuation of the contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector. However, it surpassed market expectations, suggesting an economy that may be more resilient than previously thought. This positive data could potentially embolden the Federal Reserve to enact an additional interest rate hike within the year. It’s important to note that higher interest rates can have a dampening effect on economic activity by increasing borrowing costs, which, in turn, can reduce the demand for oil.

Despite the current downward trajectory of WTI prices, OPEC’s oil production has experienced an increase for the second consecutive month, driven primarily by notable upticks in production from Nigeria and Iran. This expansion comes despite ongoing efforts by Saudi Arabia and Russia to stabilize the oil market through production cuts. If OPEC decides to extend these production cuts, it could potentially exert upward pressure on WTI prices.

Looking ahead, oil traders and market participants will closely monitor several key data releases in the coming days. On Tuesday, the U.S. JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) Job Openings data will be made available, along with the weekly crude oil stock figures from both the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week ending September 29. Later in the week, attention will shift to the release of the U.S. ISM Services PMI and the ADP (Automatic Data Processing) report on Wednesday, followed by the highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data on Friday. These data releases have the potential to significantly influence the pricing dynamics of USD-denominated WTI crude oil, as they provide insights into the health of the U.S. economy and its impact on oil demand.

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Biden’s 5-Year Offshore Oil Plan: Historic Lease Sale Reduction, None in 2024

Biden’s 5-Year Offshore Oil Plan: Historic Lease Sale Reduction, None in 2024

The Biden administration’s forthcoming five-year plan for offshore oil and gas leasing breaks with tradition, featuring an unprecedented reduction in lease sales. According to insiders familiar with the matter, there will be no lease sales in 2024, and only three are planned for the final four years. This marks the lowest number of auctions in the history of the program.

This approach is poised to disappoint both environmental groups and oil companies. In recent years, the national leasing program has been a symbol of the ongoing debate over fossil fuel development, viewed either as a means to address climate change or to secure domestic energy supplies and stabilize fuel prices.

Comparatively, since 1992, no five-year plan has had fewer than 11 lease sales, with most featuring between 15 to 20, according to data from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management.

The finalized plan represents a significant departure from the proposal crafted by the Trump administration in 2018, which envisioned a staggering 47 lease sales, including in California and the Atlantic. However, it falls short of President Biden’s campaign promise to end new federal drilling entirely as part of the fight against climate change. Legal decisions necessitated continued leasing, and the Inflation Reduction Act from last year made them a prerequisite for new offshore wind power lease auctions.

The White House argues that holding oil lease sales is a necessary trade-off to achieve its ambitious wind energy goals, emphasizing the need to fulfill leasing mandates to support the growth of the U.S. offshore wind energy sector.

President Biden views offshore wind power as a pivotal tool in his administration’s mission to decarbonize the economy, and the plan will lead to the lowest number of oil and gas lease sales in history while facilitating the rapid expansion of the offshore wind industry.

The Interior Department, mandated by law to create a national oil and gas leasing schedule every five years, has faced heated debate over the program. A proposed plan unveiled by the Biden administration in July of the previous year contemplated between zero to 11 lease sales. The plan will now undergo a 60-day waiting period before potential approval by Interior Secretary Deb Haaland.

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WTI Ends Three-Week Rally Below $90 Amid Fed’s Hawkish Stance and Strong USD

WTI Ends Three-Week Rally Below $90 Amid Fed’s Hawkish Stance and Strong USD

WTI, the Western Texas Intermediate, has experienced a notable shift in its trajectory, marking a departure from its three-week winning streak. As of today, it hovers around the $89.25 mark, a decline that has caught the attention of investors. Several key factors are influencing this recent fluctuation in WTI prices, including concerns about rising interest rates and the outlook for oil demand.

One prominent factor exerting downward pressure on WTI prices is the prevailing sentiment that interest rates in the United States will remain elevated for an extended period. This sentiment emerged following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and its subsequent issuance of hawkish comments last week. The rationale behind this connection lies in the fact that higher interest rates lead to increased borrowing costs, which can have a dampening effect on the economy and, consequently, on oil demand. This concern regarding the potential impact of rising rates has been instrumental in capping the upside potential for WTI prices.

Moreover, the robust performance of the US Dollar (USD) further compounds the challenges faced by oil prices. A stronger USD makes oil more expensive for those holding other currencies, which, in turn, can decrease global demand for oil. Consequently, the ongoing strength of the greenback has contributed to the decline in oil prices.

However, amidst these challenges, there are certain factors that have offered support to WTI prices. Saudi Arabia and Russia, two of the world’s largest oil exporters, have made strategic announcements that have had a positive impact on WTI prices. Both nations have committed to extending oil output curbs until the end of 2023. Saudi Arabia, in particular, is expected to maintain its oil output at approximately 1.3 million barrels per day throughout this period. Additionally, Russia’s recent decision to temporarily halt gasoline and diesel exports to most countries has created expectations of a significant tightening of supply in the market.

Looking ahead, oil traders are poised to closely monitor several key economic indicators that have the potential to shape the future trajectory of WTI prices. Among these are the weekly Crude Oil Stock reports from both the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week ending September 22. Additionally, the release of the US Consumer Confidence data for September and housing market statistics will provide valuable insights into the domestic economic landscape. Later in the week, attention will turn to the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized figures for the second quarter on Thursday, followed by the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. These events, given their direct impact on the USD, will be closely watched by oil traders as they seek trading opportunities within the WTI market, carefully navigating the dynamics of these economic indicators.

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WTI Holds Steady Near $68.50 Amid US Dollar Strength

WTI Crude Oil Approaches Weekly Low at $88.80 Amid Fed’s Hawkish Remarks

WTI Crude Oil Approaches Weekly Low at $88.80 Amid Fed’s Hawkish Remarks

The price of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is currently teetering around the $88.80 mark, perilously close to approaching a weekly low of $88.60. This decline in WTI prices follows closely on the heels of a noteworthy development in the financial landscape: the Federal Reserve (Fed) has opted to maintain the current interest rate, accompanied by a slew of hawkish statements during a press conference held on Wednesday.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a resolute message, underlining the Fed’s steadfast commitment to achieving a 2% inflation rate and affirming their readiness to raise interest rates if deemed necessary. These remarks have undeniably contributed to the mounting downward pressure on oil prices. The rationale is clear: higher interest rates tend to elevate borrowing costs, a factor that can potentially slow down economic activity, thereby reducing the overall demand for oil.

Interestingly, on the same day, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman provided some clarity on OPEC’s recent decision to curtail oil production. Contrary to earlier speculations, he emphasized that the primary objective of this move was to sustain market stability rather than to extend support to Russia in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine. It’s worth noting that the voluntary production cuts implemented by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s top two oil exporters, have lent considerable support to WTI prices in recent weeks. Both nations have pledged to continue constraining their oil output until the conclusion of 2023. Saudi Arabia, in particular, intends to keep its output at approximately 1.3 million barrels per day during this extended period.

Adding to the intricacies of the oil market, the American Petroleum Institute (API) issued its weekly report on Wednesday, revealing a substantial decline of nearly 5.25 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending September 15. This figure starkly contrasts with the previous week’s increase of 1.174 million barrels, confounding market expectations that had anticipated a more modest drawdown of 2.7 million barrels. Furthermore, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) chimed in with its report, registering a decrease of 2.135 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the same period. This followed the prior week’s surprise uptick of 3.954 million barrels. The market had anticipated a drawdown of 2.2 million barrels, again underscoring the unpredictable nature of oil inventory fluctuations.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of WTI crude oil prices remains contingent on several economic indicators. Oil traders will be closely tracking data releases such as the US weekly Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Index, and Existing Home Sales figures, all scheduled for publication later on Thursday. Additionally, Friday’s release of the preliminary US S&P Global PMI for September holds the potential to significantly impact the price of WTI crude oil. As these data points emerge, oil traders will diligently scrutinize the information to identify trading opportunities aligned with the evolving dynamics of WTI prices.

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WTI Oil Price Stays Around $77.30 Amid Potential

WTI Crude Oil Continues Its Ascent Below $91.00 Amid Tight Supply Prospects

WTI Crude Oil Continues Its Ascent Below $91.00 Amid Tight Supply Prospects

WTI, the U.S. benchmark for crude oil, is demonstrating resilience as it hovers around the $90.90 mark on Tuesday, driven primarily by a constrained supply outlook championed by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Nonetheless, the trajectory of WTI prices remains clouded by concerns related to a potential economic deceleration in China, which could potentially impede further price hikes.

The recent upswing in WTI prices can be unequivocally attributed to the deliberate actions of two oil giants—Saudi Arabia and Russia. These formidable players in the global oil market have unveiled their plans to sustain a tight grip on oil production cuts until the conclusion of 2023. In a committed move, Saudi Arabia has pledged to curtail its daily oil output to an approximate 1.3 million barrels, a commitment set to endure through the aforementioned timeframe. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stern warning, asserting that the oil market’s deficits will only exacerbate during the fourth quarter, courtesy of the production cuts strategically orchestrated by Saudi Arabia and Russia over the summer.

In a recent statement, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister underscored the collaborative efforts of the OPEC+ alliance in stabilizing oil markets and bolstering global energy security. Notably, no explicit target price for crude oil was disclosed. However, it was acknowledged that the market’s current volatile landscape is being significantly influenced by the prevailing ambiguity surrounding China’s oil demand, thereby casting a significant shadow on global crude prices.

As the oil landscape evolves, investors and oil traders alike are keeping a vigilant eye on the impending Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision scheduled for Wednesday. Market sentiment anticipates the Federal Reserve to uphold its existing interest rate structure, albeit with an open consideration for a solitary rate hike. Simultaneously, the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are poised to unveil their Crude Oil Stock data for the week culminating on September 15. Furthermore, Friday will see the release of the preliminary U.S. S&P Global PMI data for September. The implications of these events could extend profound ripples across the USD-denominated WTI price, presenting oil traders with a unique assortment of trading prospects.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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Pound Sterling Weakens Amid Rising

Pound Sterling Weakens Amid Rising Expectations of June BoE Rate Cut

Pound Sterling Weakens Amid Rising Expectations of June BoE Rate Cut

The Pound Sterling (GBP) displayed marginal declines but remained largely steady, hovering above the 1.2600 mark during Monday’s European trading session. The GBP/USD pair exhibited limited movement as market participants brace for the upcoming United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, set to be released on Wednesday. This key inflation report is anticipated to shed light on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential monetary policy adjustments, particularly regarding interest rate cuts starting as early as June.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, witnessed a slight rise, positioning itself around 104.30. This minor uptick reflects a cautiously optimistic sentiment in the market.

Market expectations for the Fed to initiate a rate reduction in June have significantly diminished following Friday’s robust US employment data. This report underscored a strong labor demand in the US, despite the Fed’s decision to maintain higher interest rates, currently in the 5.25%-5.50% range. The strength of the employment sector casts doubt on the pace of inflation’s decline towards the Fed’s 2% target. This scenario could prompt Fed policymakers to persist with higher interest rates, delaying any immediate rate cuts.

In contrast, the Bank of England (BoE) faces growing expectations from investors to commence reducing interest rates from their June meeting. These anticipations are fueled by increasing indications that inflationary pressures in the United Kingdom are beginning to ease. In the coming week, the Pound Sterling’s trajectory will likely be influenced by key economic indicators, including the United Kingdom’s monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and February’s factory data, scheduled for release on Friday.

Recently, the S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed a return to growth, ending a 20-month contraction streak. This positive shift in the manufacturing sector provides a glimmer of optimism for the UK economy.

As both the US and the UK navigate through these economic indicators, the Pound Sterling’s performance remains closely tied to central bank policies and macroeconomic data. The upcoming week’s reports, especially those concerning inflation and economic growth, will be critical in shaping market sentiment and the future course of currency movements.

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Japanese Yen Loses Most Early Gains

Japanese Yen Loses Most Early Gains, Falling from Two-Week High Against USD

Japanese Yen Loses Most Early Gains, Falling from Two-Week High Against USD

The Japanese Yen (JPY), after reaching a two-week peak against the US Dollar (USD) during Friday’s Asian trading session, started to recede, trimming its early substantial gains to just modest levels. This retreat in the Yen’s value, however, is expected to be somewhat contained, due to ongoing geopolitical concerns that continue to stir the global financial markets.

Central to these concerns are the ongoing tensions arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with the persistent unrest in the Middle East. Such global uncertainties typically heighten the appeal of safe-haven currencies like the JPY, which investors flock to in times of international strife and volatility.

Additionally, recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, which leaned towards a more hawkish monetary stance, have impacted investor sentiment. These remarks tend to diminish the allure of riskier assets, potentially supporting the JPY’s value in the face of adverse conditions. Investors are increasingly cautious, mindful of the potential for intervention from Japanese authorities. There’s a looming possibility that Japan’s financial overseers might step in to bolster the national currency if deemed necessary, adding another layer of complexity to the currency’s movements.

Further influencing the JPY’s trajectory is the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s indication of a potential rate hike. This move could come into play if the fluctuations in the Yen start to significantly impact the country’s inflation and wage growth. Such a decision would be a strategic effort to mitigate any further losses in the Yen’s value.

Traders and investors are also adopting a cautious stance ahead of key economic data releases. The upcoming publication of the US Nonfarm Payrolls, a critical indicator of the American employment situation, is keenly awaited. This data is expected to significantly impact the USD, thereby offering fresh momentum to the USD/JPY currency pair.

As these various factors interplay, the Japanese Yen’s performance against the USD remains a focal point of interest, reflecting the intricate balance of global economic dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and policy decisions by central banks.

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Australian Dollar Struggles for Gains Against

Australian Dollar Struggles for Gains Against Strong US Dollar, Awaits ISM Services PMI

Australian Dollar Struggles for Gains Against Strong US Dollar, Awaits ISM Services PMI

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is striving to continue its upward trend for a second day on Wednesday, facing challenges against a backdrop of varied economic factors. The AUD/USD pair has found some support due to a weakening US Dollar (USD), primarily influenced by a decrease in US Treasury yields. However, the Australian currency is simultaneously under pressure, partly due to a decline in the ASX 200 Index, reflecting broader market uncertainties.

In terms of economic indicators, the Australian Industry Group (AiG) Industry Index displayed a notable improvement in February. The index rose to -5.3, a considerable recovery from its previous level of -14.9. This improvement was mirrored in the Manufacturing PMI, which improved to -7 from its earlier reading of -12.6. These indicators suggest a somewhat stabilizing yet still challenging economic environment in the Australian sector.

Adding to the complex economic landscape is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) stance on monetary policy. A summary provided by Westpac of the RBA’s March meeting minutes indicates that the current cash rate is deemed appropriate for the existing economic conditions. However, it was also noted that this stance could change in response to evolving economic scenarios, hinting at the possibility of future policy adjustments.

On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of other major currencies, is facing its own set of challenges. These are largely stemming from recent dovish comments made by Federal Reserve officials. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester recently expressed her expectation for potential rate cuts later in the year. In a similar vein, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that three rate cuts in 2024 might be a reasonable course of action, dependent on further convincing economic data to justify such a move.

These global economic developments and policy signals from major central banks are playing a significant role in shaping the dynamics of the AUD/USD pair. Investors and market participants are likely to closely monitor these factors, along with upcoming economic releases and central bank statements, to gauge the future trajectory of the Australian Dollar in the global currency market.

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Australian Dollar's Gains Limited by Stronger

Australian Dollar’s Gains Limited by Stronger US Dollar, Awaiting ISM PMI

Australian Dollar’s Gains Limited by Stronger US Dollar, Awaiting ISM PMI

On Monday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) showed signs of recovery, offsetting some of its recent losses. This upward movement appears to have been driven, in part, by encouraging Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from China, suggesting a positive outlook for the Australian economy due to its significant trade ties with China. Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) experienced a dip, largely attributed to a decrease in US Treasury yields. This weakening of the USD has provided further support to the AUD/USD exchange rate. However, trading volumes are expected to be lower than usual owing to the Easter Monday holiday.

The Australian Dollar faced its own set of challenges, particularly with the release of weaker Consumer Inflation Expectations. These figures have led to speculation among investors about potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) towards the end of 2024. The market is now keenly awaiting the release of the RBA Meeting Minutes on Tuesday, which might offer more insights into the central bank’s future monetary policy direction.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of other major currencies, has been under pressure following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. In his recent statement, Powell indicated that the latest US inflation figures are in line with the Federal Reserve’s targets, thereby reinforcing the possibility of interest rate reductions within the year. This stance, reflecting a potentially more accommodative monetary policy, has contributed to the DXY’s struggle.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), a key measure of inflation in the United States, has met the expectations for February, aligning with the Federal Reserve’s inflation trajectory. This development has further cemented the market’s expectations regarding the Fed’s dovish monetary approach.

Investors and analysts are now focusing on a range of economic indicators and policy decisions to gauge the future direction of both the Australian and US dollars. The RBA’s minutes and future economic data, especially from the US, including the upcoming ISM PMI, will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiments and influencing the AUD/USD currency pair’s movements in the near term.

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Australian Dollar Drops on Weak GDP Data and RBA Rate Cut Bets

Aussie Dollar Weakens Against Rising US Dollar, Awaits Retail Sales Data

Aussie Dollar Weakens Against Rising US Dollar, Awaits Retail Sales Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its downward trajectory for a second day in a row during Wednesday’s trading session, with the AUD/USD pair facing losses. This decline comes in the wake of weaker-than-expected Australian consumer price data, sparking speculation about a possible shift in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) approach to interest rates. Such a dovish turn in monetary policy outlook is contributing to the AUD’s weakened stance.

In February, Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-over-Year rose by 3.4%, matching the previous figure but slightly trailing behind the forecasted 3.5%. Notably, this figure marks the lowest CPI reading since November 2021, highlighting a potential slowdown in inflationary pressures. This data release follows closely on the heels of the Westpac Consumer Confidence index for March 2024, which showed a decline of 1.8% to 84.4, down from February’s 86.0. The index had previously peaked at a 20-month high, suggesting a shift in consumer sentiment which could have broader implications for the Australian economy.

Simultaneously, the US Dollar Index (DXY) recorded gains for the second consecutive day. This upward movement is largely influenced by a global risk-off sentiment, heavily driven by market anticipation of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, set to be released on Friday. The PCE data is a significant indicator of inflation, and its outcome could have major implications for future monetary policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve.

In the United States, there has been a noticeable decline in Treasury yields, which seems to stem from the market’s expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next moves. Many investors and analysts are speculating about potential rate cuts by the Fed in response to varying economic signals. This speculation, however, might temper the US Dollar’s gains, as markets adjust to the evolving economic landscape.

As traders and analysts await the upcoming PCE data, they also keep a close eye on global economic indicators and central bank policies. The interplay between these factors continues to influence the dynamics of currency pairs like AUD/USD. Market participants are keenly observing these developments, understanding that they could potentially reshape the trajectory of major currencies in the short to medium term.

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Australian Dollar Falls as US Dollar Strengthens, Attention on Fed Chair Powell’s Speech

Australian Dollar Falls as US Dollar Strengthens, Attention on Fed Chair Powell’s Speech

The Australian Dollar (AUD) faced a downturn for the second day in a row on Friday, influenced by the strengthening US Dollar (USD). This change in the currency market came in the wake of mixed signals from the US economic data. The S&P’s preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) presented a varied picture, while the weekly Jobless Claims from the United States indicated a robust employment scenario.

Adding to the AUD’s struggles was the downturn in the Australian stock market, as seen in the decline of the ASX 200 Index. Despite positive movements on Wall Street, where major US indices hit record highs, the Australian equity market faced setbacks. Losses were particularly notable in the energy and consumer sectors, underscoring a divergent pattern between the Australian and US markets.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced an upward trajectory, continuing its gain despite a dip in US Treasury yields. The US Dollar’s climb, however, is not without its challenges. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has recently signaled its intention to cut interest rates three times in 2024, fostering expectations of a more accommodating monetary policy. The market consensus currently leans towards the commencement of an easing cycle beginning in June. However, the exact timing of these rate cuts remains dependent on forthcoming economic data.

The interplay of these various factors – from employment figures in the US to stock market performance in Australia – paints a complex picture for the AUD/USD currency pair. As the Fed’s policy outlook evolves in response to economic indicators, and as Australia grapples with its own economic challenges, the exchange rate continues to be a point of focus for traders and analysts alike. The currency market’s reaction to these developments will be closely watched, particularly with regard to any updates from the Fed or shifts in global market sentiments.

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Pound Sterling Declines Amid UK’s Mild Inflation and Risk-Averse Market Mood

Pound Sterling Declines Amid UK’s Mild Inflation and Risk-Averse Market Mood

In Wednesday’s trading session in London, the Pound Sterling exhibited significant volatility following the release of unexpectedly mild Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February by the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS). The data showed a deceleration in annual headline and core inflation rates, registering at 3.4% and 4.5%, respectively. This lower-than-anticipated inflation rate is leading to speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) might consider reducing interest rates sooner than previously thought by market analysts.

The latest inflation figures suggest a possible easing in the UK’s cost-of-living crisis, providing the BoE with more leeway in its monetary policy decisions. Typically, lower inflation would reduce the pressure on the central bank to maintain high-interest rates, which have been a tool to curb soaring prices. However, this development introduces a new layer of uncertainty for investors and traders, contributing to the Pound’s instability.

As the BoE prepares for its second monetary policy decision of 2024, set to be announced on Thursday, the stakes are high. The market consensus prior to the CPI report had been leaning towards a steady interest rate of 5.25%. However, the softer inflation data could lead to a slight shift in the BoE’s stance, potentially introducing more dovish elements into their policy guidance. Such a shift could have significant implications for the Pound, as interest rate expectations are a key driver of currency valuations.

Adding to the market’s cautious sentiment is the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy meeting, with its announcement scheduled for 18:00 GMT. Investors are closely watching for the Fed’s quarterly updated dot plot and economic projections, especially since the Fed is expected to maintain the interest rate in the range of 5.25%-5.50%. The dot plot, which outlines the interest rate projections from Fed officials for various time frames, will be a crucial indicator of the Fed’s future monetary policy path. This announcement is likely to influence global financial markets, including the Pound Sterling’s trajectory, as the Fed’s policies have far-reaching implications beyond the United States.

In conclusion, the combination of the UK’s softer inflation data and the upcoming decisions from the BoE and the Fed are creating a highly charged environment for the Pound Sterling. Investors and traders are advised to prepare for heightened volatility and closely monitor these central bank announcements for clues on the future direction of monetary policies and their impact on currency markets.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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