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EUR-USD

EUR/USD Drops Near 1.0600 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Grow

EUR/USD Drops Near 1.0600 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Grow

EUR/USD has dropped to near 1.0610, marking its sixth consecutive session of decline, amid trading in the Asian markets on Tuesday. The strong US Dollar, buoyed by rising US Treasury yields and solid retail sales data, is applying pressure on the Euro.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to approximately 106.20. Current yields for 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds are 4.92% and 4.60%, respectively. These increases are partly due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have driven investors towards the safety of the US Dollar.

March’s US Retail Sales showed a 0.7% rise, surpassing the anticipated 0.3% and revising February’s figures from 0.6% to 0.9%. The Retail Sales Control Group also reported a significant increase of 1.1%, which was a jump from the prior 0.3%.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly commented on the economic outlook, noting that while inflation has somewhat subsided, the journey to stable prices is not over. Daly stressed the necessity for inflation to consistently approach the target before any policy adjustments are made. She also pointed out the robust growth of the economy and the strong labor market, even though inflation rates remain above desired levels.

Conversely, the Euro’s value is weakening due to cautious statements from European Central Bank (ECB) officials. ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus hinted at a more than 50% chance of over three interest rate cuts this year. Additionally, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane indicated that domestic inflation has not improved as much as other inflation metrics. Despite this, Lane remains optimistic about reaching the inflation target by 2025.

These various economic indicators and policy statements from key central bank figures are shaping investor expectations and market dynamics, influencing the EUR/USD currency pair’s movements.

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NZD/USD

NZD/USD Holds Near 0.5950 as Business NZ PSI Enters Contraction

NZD/USD Holds Near 0.5950 as Business NZ PSI Enters Contraction

The NZD/USD has made a slight recovery from its five-month trough of 0.5927, observed on Monday, stabilizing around 0.5950 in the Asian trading session. This modest rebound occurs amidst a backdrop of economic concerns as New Zealand’s services sector reenters contraction territory. The Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for March distressingly fell to 47.5 from a previous 52.6, signaling a downturn in the sector.

Doug Steel, a Senior Economist at Bank of New Zealand (BNZ), commented on the implications of the latest PSI data. He noted that combining this weak service sector performance with the poor results from last week’s Manufacturing PMI points to a potential sharp contraction in GDP. Steel suggested that GDP could shrink by over 2% from last year, a forecast much gloomier than most analysts’ expectations.

Looking ahead, investors and market analysts are gearing up for a critical week of economic releases. Significant attention is centered on China, New Zealand’s principal trading partner, which will disclose several key economic figures on Tuesday. These include the Q1 GDP growth rate along with March’s Industrial Output and Retail Sales data. The anticipation around these releases is high as they could indicate shifts in regional economic dynamics.

Furthermore, domestic focus will soon turn to New Zealand’s own economic health with the upcoming release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. This inflation metric is crucial for gauging the country’s economic trajectory and potential monetary policy adjustments.

In the United States, the economic landscape appears robust by comparison. Recent data revealed a higher-than-expected rise in the Core Producer Price Index (PPI), with a year-over-year increase of 2.4% in March, surpassing the forecasted 2.3%. This indicates persistent inflationary pressures, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary easing strategies.

Market watchers are also poised for the release of the US Retail Sales figures next Monday, which will provide further insights into consumer confidence and spending trends. Additionally, the financial community will closely follow a panel discussion featuring Lorie K. Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, at the upcoming BoJ-IMF conference.

These upcoming events underscore a week filled with pivotal economic data that could influence global financial markets and inform future monetary policy decisions in both New Zealand and abroad.

 

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USD-CHF

USD/CHF Rises Above 0.9100 Before US PPI Data

USD/CHF Rises Above 0.9100 Before US PPI Data

In the early European session on Thursday, the USD/CHF currency pair exhibited a bullish momentum, climbing to 0.9125, marking its highest level since October 2023. This upward trend in the pair is primarily attributed to the unexpectedly high U.S. inflation figures for March, which have led investors to revise their predictions regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, now leaning away from a reduction this year. This shift in investor sentiment has fortified the U.S. Dollar (USD), lending it considerable support.

The shift in expectations came after the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which indicated a significant and unanticipated increase. This surge in inflation resulted in analysts pushing back their forecasts for the first rate cut, now expected in September instead of the previously anticipated June. Breaking down the numbers, the headline CPI witnessed a 0.4% month-over-month increase in March, while the annual CPI saw a 3.5% year-over-year jump. Even more telling was the Core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy sectors; it rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and exhibited a substantial 3.8% increase from the previous year.

The minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting further underscored concerns about persistently high inflation. Federal Reserve officials expressed unease regarding inflation levels, which continued to exceed the Fed’s 2% target. This discomfort, coupled with the recent data, did little to boost confidence that inflation was on a trajectory towards this target. Consequently, the persistence of higher U.S. interest rates has been a significant factor propelling the USD upwards, which in turn has positively impacted the USD/CHF pair.

Concurrently, the geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Middle East, introduces a layer of uncertainty that could influence currency markets. The ongoing tensions and the precarious nature of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas add to this uncertainty. The recent statements by Israel’s Foreign Minister, Israel Kat, were a stark reminder of the volatile situation. He cautioned that Israel would respond firmly if Iran initiated an attack from its territory. This statement followed remarks by Iran’s supreme leader, who called for retribution against Israel for a perceived attack on an Iranian consulate in Syria the previous week.

Such geopolitical tensions typically result in an increased demand for safe-haven assets, with the Swiss Franc (CHF) often being a beneficiary of such shifts in investor preference. Therefore, while the USD gains strength from domestic economic factors, the CHF could see a boost from these international developments, making the USD/CHF pair one to watch closely in the current global context.

 

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RBA Holding Rates Steady

AUD/JPY Nears 99.90 Amid Expectations of RBA Holding Rates Steady

AUD/JPY Nears 99.90 Amid Expectations of RBA Holding Rates Steady

The Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY) exchange rate has shown a significant uptrend, reaching nearly 99.90 during Monday’s European trading session. This bullish trend in the currency pair is largely driven by the robust performance of the Australian Dollar, buoyed by positive developments in Australia’s domestic financial markets. A key contributor to this strength is the notable rise in the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX 200 Index), especially with a marked surge in the technology sector at the week’s onset.

Complementing the Australian Dollar’s rise is the uptick in Australia’s 10-year government bond yield, which has soared to approximately 4.1%, marking a new high in over a month. This increase mirrors the rally in U.S. bond yields, triggered by unexpectedly strong U.S. job data. Consequently, there’s growing speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may opt for a prolonged period of higher interest rates.

Investor sentiment is tilting away from the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) implementing rate cuts anytime in 2024. This shift is underpinned by the recent positive economic indicators from the U.S., which hint at sustained higher borrowing costs in the world’s largest economy. Such expectations are lending support to the Australian Dollar, further propelling the AUD/JPY pair upward.

Despite these gains, the Australian Dollar faced some pressure last week due to stagnant Final Retail Sales and less-than-optimistic Trade Balance data. Market watchers remain vigilant regarding the trajectory of copper and oil prices, as any significant appreciation in these commodities could bolster the Australian Dollar further, positively influencing the AUD/JPY pair.

On the other side of the pairing, the Japanese Yen is experiencing downward pressure, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) showing reticence towards any major policy tightening moves. Furthermore, easing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are reducing the traditional safe-haven appeal of the Yen. Notably, Israel’s recent decision to pull back additional troops from Southern Gaza, potentially in response to international pressures, has contributed to this de-escalation.

Adding to the mix, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent remarks indicate a possible shift in the BoJ’s policy approach. Speaking about his tenure, which began about a year ago, Governor Ueda expressed an interest in simplifying and clarifying the central bank’s policy framework, contingent on favorable economic conditions. This potential policy shift, coupled with the global economic landscape, plays a pivotal role in shaping the dynamics of the AUD/JPY currency pair.

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EUR/USD Declines Toward

EUR/USD Declines Toward 1.0830 Amid Market Caution, Attention on US NFP Data

EUR/USD Declines Toward 1.0830 Amid Market Caution, Attention on US NFP Data

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) continues its downward trajectory that began on Thursday, approaching a value near 1.0830 during the Asian trading session on Friday. This movement reflects an increase in market caution, significantly influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have bolstered the US Dollar (USD).

The current geopolitical climate has become more strained following Iran’s vow to retaliate against Israel’s recent attack on its embassy in Syria, an incident that resulted in the deaths of Iranian military personnel. Additionally, new reports suggesting heightened threats against Israeli embassies in the United States by Iran have further intensified market apprehensions.

On the economic front, the USD experienced some downward pressure due to less-than-robust employment data from the United States. Despite this, remarks from several Federal Reserve officials that were perceived as neutral seem to have curbed a steeper decline in the USD’s value.

In terms of specific data, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 29 increased to 221,000 from the previous week’s figure of 212,000, though it was still below market expectations of 214,000. US Challenger Job Cuts for March also showed an increase, reaching 90,309, which is above the previous figure of 84,638.On the other side of the Atlantic, the Eurozone’s economic indicators paint a mixed picture. The Eurostat Producer Price Index (PPI) for February showed a decrease of 1.0%, surpassing expectations and marking a more significant decline than in previous months. Furthermore, the year-over-year decline in the PPI also outstripped expectations, though by a smaller margin. 

The Eurozone’s Composite PMI also showed signs of improvement, indicating a slight expansion in economic activity. Interestingly, the latest inflation data from the Eurozone shows a sharper-than-expected decrease in the annual rate for March. This development fuels speculation about potential monetary policy actions by the European Central Bank (ECB), with some market participants anticipating a possible rate cut in June. As traders navigate these multifaceted economic and geopolitical landscapes, they keenly await upcoming data releases. Significant among these are Germany’s Factory Orders and Eurozone Retail Sales. 

From the United States, the market is particularly focused on the upcoming release of Average Hourly Earnings and Nonfarm Payrolls data, which are considered crucial indicators of the country’s economic health.

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USD/CAD Nears

USD/CAD Nears 1.3560, Drops Due to Rising Crude Oil Prices

USD/CAD Nears 1.3560, Drops Due to Rising Crude Oil Prices

The USD/CAD currency pair continues its downward trajectory for the second consecutive day, inching closer to 1.3560 in the Asian trading session on Wednesday. This negative movement is primarily influenced by the robust performance of Crude oil prices, which bolsters the Canadian Dollar (CAD), thereby exerting a downward force on the USD/CAD pair.

Crude oil prices, particularly Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), are hovering around $84.80, marking their highest point since October 2023. This surge in oil prices can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the weakening of the US Dollar and rising concerns over supply disruptions due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Furthermore, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the US Dollar against a basket of major currencies, is facing a downward pressure, contributing to the weakening of the USD/CAD pair. This weakening of the DXY comes in the wake of dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Notably, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed an expectation of potential rate cuts later in the year. Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that three rate cuts in 2024 might be “reasonable,” though such a decision would depend on further convincing economic evidence.

In recent US economic news, data released on Tuesday highlighted some key figures. The US February JOLTS Job Openings report showed an increase to 8.756 million, up from the previous figure of 8.748 million, exceeding market expectations. Additionally, there was a notable rebound in Factory Orders, which rose by 1.4% month-on-month in February, following a 3.8% decline in the previous period.

Investors and market participants are now turning their attention to upcoming economic data releases. For Canada, the focus is on the Import and Export data due on Thursday, and the labor market data scheduled for release on Friday. In the United States, key data points include the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, both set for release on Wednesday. Moreover, the US economic outlook is set to gain further clarity with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum in Stanford.

Overall, the combination of strong Crude oil prices, dovish statements from Fed officials, and upcoming economic data releases are key factors influencing the movement of the USD/CAD pair, with market participants closely monitoring these developments to gauge future trends.

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NZD/USD Nears 0.5980 Amid Fed's Powell Dovish

NZD/USD Nears 0.5980 Amid Fed’s Powell Dovish Remarks, Eyes on US ISM PMI

NZD/USD Nears 0.5980 Amid Fed’s Powell Dovish Remarks, Eyes on US ISM PMI

The NZD/USD currency pair has continued its upward trajectory for the second straight day, making notable gains during Monday’s Asian trading session and approaching the 0.5980 mark. This upward movement comes in the wake of dovish statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday. Powell’s comments, particularly regarding the recent Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data from the United States, have been interpreted as aligning with the Fed’s openness to potential interest rate reductions this year.

Adding to this sentiment, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller has expressed that there’s no urgency to implement rate cuts, given the persistent inflationary pressures. Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly has underlined the Fed’s readiness to adjust rates as necessary based on evolving data, while also highlighting the strength of the US economy and downplaying the likelihood of an imminent downturn.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been facing headwinds, partly due to lower yields on US Treasury bonds. The DXY is currently hovering around 104.50, with yields on the 2-year and 10-year US bonds at 4.60% and 4.19%, respectively. Despite these challenges, Fed officials are still projecting three rate reductions within the year, with market anticipations leaning towards the first cut occurring at the Fed’s June meeting.

On the other side of the pairing, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is experiencing its own pressures, fueled by speculations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might start reducing policy rates early next year. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr has noted the central bank’s progress in reining in inflation to within its target range. Orr has also suggested that the peak in interest rates has likely been reached, paving the way for potential rate cuts.

Further boosting the Kiwi Dollar, recent data from China has shown encouraging signs. The Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March indicated that manufacturing activity in China expanded for the first time in six months. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI reported a figure of 51.1, slightly above expectations and the previous month’s figure of 50.9. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.8 in March from 49.1 previously, while the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.0 from 51.4.

Looking ahead, traders are likely to approach the market with caution as they await the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI from the United States, scheduled for later in the North American session. Additionally, upcoming data releases, such as the Building Permits from Statistics New Zealand this Thursday, will be closely monitored for their potential impact on currency movements.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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Gold Price Stays Steady Above $2,170, Maintaining Bullish Momentum

Gold Price Stays Steady Above $2,170, Maintaining Bullish Momentum

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are experiencing difficulty in building upon their modest overnight gains, remaining within a tight trading range during the early European session on Tuesday. Market participants are taking a cautious approach, preferring to wait for the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. This key data is expected to significantly influence market perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future rate cut strategy, potentially offering a new direction for the non-yielding yellow metal.

The US central bank, in its recent announcement, stated its plan to reduce interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024. This decision is causing a downward pressure on US Treasury bond yields, subsequently impacting the US Dollar (USD) and providing some support to gold prices. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with unrest in the Middle East, are maintaining gold’s status as a safe-haven asset, suggesting a continued upward trajectory.

The focus now shifts to the US economic calendar, which includes significant releases such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, all due in the early North American session. These indicators, alongside movements in US bond yields, are expected to influence USD demand and thereby affect gold prices. Furthermore, the general mood of global risk will also play a crucial role, offering short-term trading opportunities around XAU/USD.

Given these circumstances, gold remains a key asset to watch. While the immediate outlook is constrained by the wait-and-see approach ahead of crucial economic data, underlying factors such as the Fed’s rate policy and global geopolitical concerns are providing a supportive backdrop. Investors and traders will be keeping a close eye on the US data releases and global events to gauge the next significant move in gold prices. As the week progresses, the anticipation around the PCE Price Index will likely heighten, setting the stage for potential volatility in the gold market.

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Oil Price Surge May Limit Gains

WTI Holds Modest Gains, Trading Above Mid-$81 with Bullish Outlook Intact

WTI Holds Modest Gains, Trading Above Mid-$81 with Bullish Outlook Intact

On Thursday, during the Asian trading session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices experienced a notable upturn, attracting buyers and reversing some of the downward movement seen the previous day. The commodity is currently trading around the $81.70 region, maintaining proximity to its over four-month peak reached earlier in the week, signaling a robust upward momentum in the oil market.

This recent increase in oil prices can be partly attributed to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest policy stance. In its March policy meeting concluded on Wednesday, the Fed maintained its projection for three interest rate cuts this year. Such a monetary policy tends to weaken the US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, boosts the appeal of USD-denominated commodities, including Crude Oil. The devaluation of the dollar makes these commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies, thus potentially increasing demand.

Moreover, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s acknowledgment of the strength in the US economy further bolsters the positive outlook for oil demand. A strong economy typically correlates with higher energy consumption, as industrial, transportation, and commercial activities tend to increase, driving up the demand for oil.

Additionally, recent developments in oil inventory and geopolitical factors are influencing oil prices. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report on Wednesday showing an unexpected decline in crude inventories. The report indicated a reduction of 2 million barrels, bringing the total down to 445 million barrels for the week ending March 15. This decline in stockpiles suggests a tightening in the oil market, often a precursor to higher prices.

The geopolitical landscape also plays a critical role in shaping oil market dynamics. Current concerns about potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in Russia and the Middle East are contributing to the upward trend in oil prices. These regions are significant contributors to global oil supply, and any disruption could lead to a decrease in supply, pushing prices higher.

Market participants are now closely monitoring the release of flash PMIs, which offer insights into the global economic health and, consequently, fuel demand. These indicators, coupled with the USD’s price dynamics, are expected to create short-term trading opportunities around oil prices. The fundamental backdrop, characterized by a weakening dollar, reduced oil inventories, and geopolitical uncertainties, seems to favor bullish traders. This environment suggests that any substantial corrective declines in oil prices could be perceived as attractive buying opportunities, with downward movements likely to be short-lived.

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Gold Price Nears One-Week Low, Vulnerable Due to Hawkish Fed Forecasts

Gold Price Nears One-Week Low, Vulnerable Due to Hawkish Fed Forecasts

As the European trading session commences on Tuesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is encountering fresh selling pressure. The precious metal appears to be halting its modest overnight recovery from the $2,145 region, marking its lowest point in over a week. A key factor influencing this trend is the anticipation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its stance on high interest rates for an extended period, driven by persistently high inflation in the United States. This expectation sustains the strength of US Treasury bond yields, which in turn bolsters the US Dollar (USD) to near a two-week peak. The strengthened USD is a major element that negatively impacts the value of gold, which is a non-yielding asset.

Despite these pressures, the market still harbors expectations that the Fed might initiate a cycle of rate cuts as soon as June. This prospect, combined with ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties, could lend some support to gold prices, viewed as a safe-haven asset, thereby potentially mitigating further losses. Furthermore, ahead of the critical two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting starting this Tuesday, traders are likely to exhibit caution, avoiding aggressive directional bets on the gold market. This meeting is highly anticipated, as investors are eager to discern any indications regarding the Fed’s future rate-cut trajectory. The outcomes of this meeting are expected to significantly influence the demand for the USD, and consequently, provide important momentum to the gold market.

In summary, while the current macroeconomic environment and monetary policy expectations pose challenges to gold prices, factors like potential Fed rate cuts and global tensions could provide some buoyancy. Investors and traders are closely watching the upcoming FOMC meeting for further direction, making this a critical juncture for the gold market and its short-term trajectory.

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WTI Holds Steady Near $68.50 Amid US Dollar Strength

WTI Stabilizes Near $78.50 Following Recent Upsurge Due to Changes in US Crude Oil Inventories

WTI Stabilizes Near $78.50 Following Recent Upsurge Due to Changes in US Crude Oil Inventories

During the Asian trading hours on Thursday, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price experienced a slight decline, hovering around $78.50 per barrel. This movement follows a notable surge on Wednesday, primarily fueled by developments in the US crude oil inventory data.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that for the week ending March 1, crude oil stockpiles increased for the sixth consecutive week. The build-up was recorded at 1.367 million barrels, which was lower than the market’s anticipated increase of 2.116 million barrels and significantly less than the previous week’s rise of 4.199 million barrels. In a similar vein, the American Petroleum Institute (API) Weekly Crude Oil Stock data indicated a build in inventories of 0.423 million barrels. This outcome defied market expectations, which predicted a decrease of around 2.6 million barrels from the previous figure of 8.428 million barrels.

Furthermore, crude oil prices were buoyed by a weakening US Dollar (USD) in the wake of comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. During his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Powell hinted at the possibility of the central bank reducing borrowing costs “at some point this year.” A weaker dollar generally makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, which can increase demand.

The optimistic outlook on China’s economy also lent support to oil prices. China’s Trade Balance for February impressively climbed to $125.16 billion, exceeding expectations of $103.7 billion and markedly higher than the prior $75.34 billion. Year-on-year, both imports and exports from China grew by 3.5% and 7.1%, respectively, indicating a rebound in economic activity which could translate into higher energy demand.

Additionally, oil prices are reacting to geopolitical factors. Notably, Saudi Arabia, a key member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), raised the prices of its primary oil grade for Asian buyers. This decision came in the wake of OPEC+ agreeing to extend their voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) into the second quarter, aiming to stabilize the market amid fluctuating global demand and supply conditions.

All these factors collectively influence the WTI price, as the global oil market continues to respond to a complex interplay of inventory levels, currency fluctuations, geopolitical decisions, and broader economic indicators.

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US PCE Data Approaches

WTI Stays Under $78.00 as US PCE Data Approaches

WTI Stays Under $78.00 as US PCE Data Approaches

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for US crude oil, is currently hovering around $77.75 as of Thursday. The WTI prices have seen a slight decline, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to postpone initial rate cuts and the pressure from increasing US oil inventories.

Recent reports indicate a substantial rise in US crude oil stocks. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase of 8.428 million barrels in the week ending February 23, up from a build of 7.168 million barrels in the preceding week. Complementing this data, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that crude oil stockpiles rose by 4.199 million barrels last week, exceeding the previous increase of 3.514 million barrels.

In an effort to manage oil supply, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including a key player, Saudi Arabia, agreed last November to cut oil production by 2.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of the year. Additionally, there is speculation that OPEC+ might extend these voluntary output reductions into the second quarter, potentially leading to tighter market conditions.

Concurrently, recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials suggest a delay in interest rate reductions. This could potentially slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker recently advocated for a gradual and cautious approach to rate cuts to mitigate risk and uncertainty. Fed Governor Bowman noted that while inflation is expected to decline with current interest rates, it is premature to begin rate reductions. Kansas City Fed President Schmid echoed these sentiments, pointing out the unnecessary nature of preemptive policy adjustments given the current economic conditions, including above-target inflation and tight labor markets.

Market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (Core PCE) data, expected on Thursday. Forecasts suggest a drop to 2.8% year-over-year for January. This data, pivotal for the USD-denominated WTI pricing, is likely to influence oil traders, who will be looking for trading opportunities based on the outcomes and their impact on WTI prices.

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WTI Oil Price Stays Around $77.30 Amid Potential

WTI Oil Price Stays Around $77.30 Amid Potential Supply Interruptions and Russian Ban on Gasoline Exports

WTI Oil Price Stays Around $77.30 Amid Potential Supply Interruptions and Russian Ban on Gasoline Exports

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices are experiencing a surge, primarily influenced by geopolitical tensions and disruptions in international sea traffic. These disruptions have been notably caused by Iran-aligned Houthi militants. During the European trading session on Tuesday, WTI prices have been observed hovering around the $77.30 mark. 

The Houthi militants, based in Yemen, have escalated their activities, extending their reach to global communication systems. A recent development involves the disruption of key underwater cables that are crucial for connectivity between Europe and Asia. This strategic move by the Houthi group has raised concerns over potential impacts on international communication and trade.

Compounding the situation is Russia’s recent announcement of a six-month ban on gasoline exports, effective from March 1. This decision by the Russian government, as reported by Russia’s RBC and endorsed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, is an attempt to stabilize domestic oil prices during a period of refinery maintenance. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had proposed this ban in a letter dated February 21, emphasizing the need for internal market stabilization in Russia.

The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is also affecting crude oil prices. The targeting of civilian shipping vessels in the Red Sea by Houthi militants has led to heightened security concerns in the region. In response, the United States Military Central Command (CENTCOM) has launched attacks against Houthi targets, reportedly destroying missiles, unmanned vessels, and a drone in an effort to protect international shipping routes.

Adding to the regional tensions, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced plans for military action in Rafah, a city currently hosting a large number of displaced Palestinians. The situation in the Middle East is further complicated by ongoing negotiations to halt Israeli military actions in Gaza. US President Joe Biden has expressed optimism about reaching an agreement within a week, which would hinge on the release of hostages held by Hamas.

These series of events – from the disruption of international sea traffic by Houthi militants, the Russian ban on gasoline exports, to the escalating tensions in the Middle East – collectively contribute to the volatile state of oil prices. The global oil market remains sensitive to these geopolitical developments, with WTI prices reacting to the unfolding situations and the potential implications on global supply and demand dynamics.

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Gold Price Hovers Near 50-Day SMA Amid Soft USD

Gold Price Hovers Near 50-Day SMA Amid Soft USD, Lacking Bullish Momentum

Gold Price Hovers Near 50-Day SMA Amid Soft USD, Lacking Bullish Momentum

The Gold price (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory for the sixth consecutive day, reaching above the $2,030 level in the early European trading session. This marks a climb closer to the over one-week high achieved the day before. Despite the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) assertive stance on maintaining higher interest rates, the US Dollar (USD) experiences a downturn, hitting a three-week low. This weakening of the USD emerges as a crucial factor bolstering gold’s value.

In addition to the softer dollar, growing concerns over geopolitical tensions, particularly those arising from conflicts in the Middle East, have further enhanced gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. This geopolitical backdrop has played a significant role in supporting the metal’s upward price movement.

Concurrently, the minutes from the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting have reinforced market expectations that the Fed is likely to sustain elevated interest rates for an extended period. This policy is in response to persistently high inflation rates and the resilience of the US economy. The affirmation of this stance is supportive of higher yields on US Treasury bonds. These elevated yields are expected to provide some buffer against deeper losses for the USD, which in turn could serve as a counterbalance to the rising prices of non-yielding assets like gold.

Moreover, the generally upbeat sentiment in the equity markets also plays a role in the gold market dynamics. While gold prices are gaining, the positive atmosphere in stock markets suggests a level of risk appetite among investors, which might temper the rally in gold prices. Investors and traders are thus advised to look for a consistent breakthrough and stabilization above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before placing new bullish bets on the XAU/USD pair.

Overall, the current scenario presents a complex interplay of factors influencing gold prices. The weakened USD, geopolitical tensions, Fed’s monetary policy, bond yields, and the global equity market sentiment are all contributing to the gold market’s dynamics. As these factors continue to evolve, they will likely shape the future direction of gold prices, necessitating careful monitoring by investors and traders to navigate this multifaceted environment effectively.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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China’s Yuan Softens Versus Dollar Amid Growing Yield Gap

China’s Yuan Softens Versus Dollar Amid Growing Yield Gap

The Chinese yuan weakened against the U.S. dollar, influenced by an increasing yield differential and diverging monetary policies from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), posing challenges for the currency. Since December 27, the spread between yields on China’s 10-year government bonds and U.S. equivalents has grown by 24 basis points to 144 basis points. Market adjustments reflect anticipation of the Fed’s less aggressive policy stance and the likelihood of rate cuts by the PBOC.

On the same day, yields on China’s 10-year government bonds dipped to their lowest since April 2020, reflecting the impact of policy differences on the yuan, particularly in offshore markets. The PBOC’s balance sheet actions, including expectations of reduced interest rates and loan enhancements via the pledged supplementary lending program, are seen as efforts to provide relief, particularly to the property sector. This is evident from the PBOC’s 350 billion yuan injection into policy banks in December to bolster the housing market.

Traders have noted unusually high U.S. dollar reserves held by onshore exporters, which are anticipated to be converted into yuan as the Lunar New Year approaches, potentially strengthening the yuan against the dollar towards late January or early February.

The PBOC set the yuan’s daily reference rate at 7.1029 per dollar, slightly weaker than the previous day’s fix of 7.0997. The spot yuan rate opened at 7.1675 per dollar and stood at 7.1684 midday, marking a slight depreciation from the last session’s close. Meanwhile, the global dollar index edged up slightly to 102.457 from 102.422.

The currency markets are also eyeing the upcoming U.S. payroll data, which is expected to provide further insight into the Fed’s future policy decisions and could influence the yuan-dollar exchange rate. The offshore yuan was observed trading at a weaker level compared to the onshore rate, at 7.1783 per dollar.

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Australian Dollar Steadies Above

Australian Dollar Steadies Above Key Mark Before US PMI, FOMC Minutes

Australian Dollar Steadies Above Key Mark Before US PMI, FOMC Minutes

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is navigating choppy waters, managing to hold above the crucial 0.6750 threshold against the US Dollar (USD). The AUD, tied closely to commodity markets, is under pressure from a global growth slowdown at 2024’s end, nudging investors towards the USD. Despite this, speculation over imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts has been tempered, with unexpected upbeat manufacturing data from China offering some support to the AUD.

Amidst this backdrop, Australia’s own economic indicators are closely watched, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) emphasizing the importance of data review in rate-setting deliberations. A recent dip in the Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI suggests an easing in economic activity, and upcoming Composite and Services PMI figures are expected to reflect similar trends, potentially signaling sectoral shrinkage.

Despite these challenges, the AUD’s footing might remain firm, underpinned by persistent domestic inflation and a buoyant housing market. Expectations are tilting towards the RBA holding back on policy tightening at its February session, which could lend support to the currency.

Revelations from RBA’s internal documents suggest that rising interest rates have begun to weigh on Australian households and businesses, evidenced by a downturn in domestic tourism and a consumer shift towards more budget-friendly goods to mitigate living costs. Yet, a silver lining appears in the form of stable private sector wage growth, hovering around 4%, offering a glimpse into the country’s economic condition.

In a move to ease the cost-of-living strain without stoking inflation, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has tasked the Treasury and Finance departments to seek viable relief strategies for families.

Geopolitical undercurrents also play a role, with China’s framing of the January 13 elections in Taiwan as a pivotal decision with far-reaching implications, adding to regional tensions that could influence the AUD/USD dynamic.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s trajectory is upward, bolstered by higher Treasury yields, despite a S&P Global Manufacturing PMI that fell short of forecasts. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming US data, including the December ISM Manufacturing PMI and the FOMC Minutes.

These minutes, released in the wake of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hints at possible rate reductions, are anticipated to provide further insight into the Fed’s monetary stance, potentially impacting the AUD and broader currency markets.

 

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Iran and Russia to Conduct Trade Using Own Currencies, Bypassing US Dollar – Reports by State Media

Iran and Russia to Conduct Trade Using Own Currencies, Bypassing US Dollar – Reports by State Media

Iran and Russia have reached a significant milestone in their economic partnership by agreeing to conduct trade transactions using their respective local currencies, thereby sidelining the US dollar. This strategic move, confirmed by Iranian state media, was solidified during discussions held by the central bank chiefs of both nations in Russia.

The shift to local currencies comes as both countries face stringent US sanctions, prompting them to seek alternative financial mechanisms for their trading operations. By establishing a system that operates outside of the conventional SWIFT interbank network, they have created a pathway to facilitate trade without reliance on the US dollar.

The timing of this agreement aligns with the strengthening of ties within the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which recently incorporated Iran into its fold through a comprehensive free trade agreement signed on December 25. This inclusion into the EEU is a strategic gain for Iran, broadening its economic horizons and reinforcing its trade potential within the region.

For Russia, Iran’s partnership has grown increasingly vital following the imposition of Western sanctions due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. These sanctions have heavily restricted Russia’s access to traditional foreign trade markets, particularly in Europe, propelling it to seek and develop alternative trade routes and partners.

The deepening of Iran-Russia relations is not confined to economic aspects alone but extends into military cooperation. In November, Iran announced the finalization of deals with Russia that would enhance its military capabilities, including the acquisition of advanced Su-35 fighter jets, Mi-28 attack helicopters, and training for pilots on the Yak-130 aircraft. This move signifies a mutual interest in not only bolstering their economies but also in strengthening strategic and defense collaborations in the face of geopolitical pressures.

This realignment of trade and military alliances by Iran and Russia represents a significant pivot away from Western-dominated financial systems and defense dependencies. By forging their own paths and utilizing local currencies for trade, both countries are sending a clear signal of their intent to operate independently of the influence exerted by the US dollar and to resist the limitations imposed by sanctions.

 

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Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Month

Japanese Yen Reaches New Daily High Versus USD, BoJ Stance May Limit Rise

Japanese Yen Reaches New Daily High Versus USD, BoJ Stance May Limit Rise

On Wednesday, the Japanese Yen (JPY) exhibited a notable upswing, securing a new daily zenith against the US Dollar (USD), in a modest comeback from its substantial depreciation observed in the preceding three days. During the early European trading hours, the USD/JPY currency pair was seen dipping to a daily low, hovering around the 143.30 mark. Despite this upward movement, the sentiment among Yen bulls remains cautious. This tentativeness stems from the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent reaffirmation of its commitment to maintain expansive monetary policy settings. In its latest policy meeting on Tuesday, the BoJ held firm on its existing stance, maintaining its accommodative policy guidance and thereby moderating some investor anticipation of a potential pivot towards less negative interest rates.

This week also brought to light a decline in Japan’s trade activity, with imports and exports falling more significantly than anticipated in November. The decrease in trade volumes, coupled with a generally optimistic atmosphere in global equity markets, has somewhat diminished the Yen’s allure as a safe-haven asset. Conversely, the US Dollar found some support, buoyed by the market’s speculation about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate trajectory. The uncertainty surrounding when and how the Fed might commence scaling back its interest rates has provided some backing to the USD/JPY pair.

Traders, for now, seem to be holding back from making bold directional moves with the Yen, opting for a more measured approach as they await an important inflation update from the United States. The upcoming release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is highly anticipated this Friday. The outcomes of this report are expected to significantly influence the Fed’s future policy decisions, which, in turn, will have implications for USD demand and potentially inject new momentum into the USD/JPY exchange dynamics.

In the interim, several economic indicators and events are poised to sway short-term trading strategies. These include the release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index and data on Existing Home Sales. Moreover, market participants are likely to pay close attention to Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s remarks, seeking insights that could offer trading cues during the North American market session on Wednesday.

The confluence of these domestic and international economic developments will continue to shape the narrative around the USD/JPY pair, as investors and traders calibrate their positions in response to evolving monetary policy expectations and the broader economic outlook.

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China's Yuan Softens Versus Dollar Amid Growing Yield Gap

China’s Central Bank Restarts 14-Day Reverse Repos to Ease Year-End Liquidity

China’s Central Bank Restarts 14-Day Reverse Repos to Ease Year-End Liquidity

After a three-month hiatus, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has recommenced its practice of injecting short-term cash into the financial system via 14-day reverse repurchase agreements (reverse repos). This move, enacted on Monday, is part of a broader strategy to manage the surging liquidity requirements typically seen as the year draws to a close.

Reverse repos are financial instruments used by central banks to control the money supply. By selling securities with the agreement to repurchase them at a later date, central banks can temporarily decrease the amount of money circulating in the economy. The PBOC’s latest round of injections funneled a substantial 244 billion yuan (equivalent to approximately $34.28 billion) into the market through these operations. This capital injection was divided into two segments: a majority of 184 billion yuan was allocated to the seven-day tenor—standard short-term loans—and the remaining 60 billion yuan was directed towards the 14-day tenor.

This recent allocation marks the first instance since late September that the 14-day reverse repo contracts have been employed by the PBOC. These longer tenor agreements are indicative of the central bank’s intent to provide a more sustained source of funds, ensuring that financial institutions have adequate cash for a longer period.

The PBOC’s actions reflect its commitment to maintaining a stable financial environment, a necessity for economic growth and stability. The bank’s official statement on Monday underscored this objective, indicating that the operation was specifically designed to preserve “reasonably ample” liquidity conditions as the year-end approaches. Maintaining such liquidity is crucial for the smooth operation of financial markets, as it enables banks to fulfill withdrawal requests, grant loans, and support economic activity without undue stress.

In broader economic terms, these measures are closely watched by market participants as they often signal the central bank’s monetary policy stance and outlook on the economy. The PBOC’s decision to resume 14-day reverse repos could thus be interpreted as a proactive step to pre-empt potential cash shortages, stabilize money market rates, and guide market expectations during periods of seasonal cash demand.

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UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Near Two-Year Peak

UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Near Two-Year Peak

In the closing month of the year, the UK’s consumer confidence has shown a slight uptick, indicating a modest shift in public sentiment despite ongoing economic challenges. In December, analysis from market research firm GfK Ltd. identified a rise in consumer sentiment, marking the highest point since the beginning of the year, although the mood among UK households remains cautious.

The GfK’s sentiment indicator, which increased by two points to minus 22, suggests that while consumers are still grappling with uncertainty, there is a nascent optimism brewing about the economy’s direction as we head into 2024. This increment is the most significant since January of the previous year, signaling that consumers are starting to see a silver lining despite the overarching pessimism reflected in the negative reading. 

This budding optimism encompasses several aspects of the GfK’s survey, which captures feelings towards personal finances, general economic conditions, major purchase intentions, and saving behavior. The data suggests that even amid the current cost-of-living crisis, which continues to exert pressure on the majority of households, there’s a gradual but steady shift toward a more positive outlook on personal financial prospects for the forthcoming year.

Further affirming this shift in consumer confidence is data from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC), which points to a sustained high number of job vacancies within the UK economy. The REC’s metrics showed a 7.7% increase in job postings, totaling 1.44 million in the week starting November 27. This figure is slightly lower by 8.6% compared to the same period in the previous year, yet it underscores a resilient job market. 

The week in question saw the advertisement of 186,329 new job positions, only a 2.6% drop year-on-year, with certain sectors such as physiotherapy, midwifery, and occupational therapy witnessing notable surges in job adverts. Interestingly, no region in the UK experienced a reduction in job advertisements from the preceding week, which suggests a broad-based demand for labor across the country.

The resilience of the job market can be attributed to the ongoing labor shortages and the skills gap that the UK is experiencing. According to REC’s Chief Executive Neil Carberry, the slower economy has not led to a significant reduction in hiring as might be expected in a typical economic downturn. Instead, sectors such as hospitality, engineering, healthcare, and social care continue to face hiring challenges, further complicated by the scarcity of labor and specific skill sets.

This situation presents both an obstacle and an opportunity. The difficulty in filling roles across various sectors could potentially lead to wage growth as employers strive to attract scarce talent. This, in turn, could influence consumer spending and sentiment positively. As the UK navigates the uncertain terrain of post-pandemic recovery, the interplay between job market dynamics and consumer confidence will be critical to watch, with implications for economic policy and business strategies in the coming year.

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Japan Approves Tax Reductions to Aid Families, Combat Deflation

Japan Approves Tax Reductions to Aid Families, Combat Deflation

In Japan, the government’s tax reform committee, part of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, has reached a consensus on reducing income tax rates. This move is designed to alleviate the financial strain on households amidst the rising costs of living, signaling a shift from the longstanding deflationary period that has characterized the Japanese economy.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, confronting dwindling public approval due to inflation, stagnant wages, and political fundraising controversies, has chosen to emphasize these tax cuts as a cornerstone of his administration’s growth-centric policies.

In a strategic pivot, the tax reform committee has set an upper limit on the annual income eligible for these tax reductions, targeting relief efforts towards middle and lower-income brackets and addressing the widening economic disparity.

The proposal includes deferring an increase in taxes originally intended to augment defense spending in the subsequent fiscal year. This delay reflects the government’s prioritization of economic support for citizens over military expenditure amid current fiscal considerations.

Further, the committee has decided not to proceed with a planned reduction in the cap on mortgage borrowing for the upcoming year, providing continued access to housing loans for families.

In an effort to stimulate economic expansion through private consumption, the government is also extending tax incentives to businesses that increase employee wages. This policy is extended to small businesses in deficit, allowing them to benefit from preferential tax treatment for a duration of five years.

The tax panel is introducing a novel tax scheme to encourage domestic investment, particularly in companies that produce essential materials for decarbonization and economic security. This initiative will offer tax incentives for ten years, aiming to boost sectors such as electric vehicles and advanced technology components, which are crucial for Japan’s strategic economic initiatives.

These tax incentives are part of a broader government strategy to foster a conducive environment for substantial investments in key industries, particularly those aligned with Japan’s green transformation goals.

The details of these tax reforms are to be incorporated into the fiscal 2024 tax reform framework, which was finalized on Thursday. This framework is anticipated to lay the groundwork for a resilient and forward-looking Japanese economy.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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