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EUR-USD

EUR/USD Drops Near 1.0600 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Grow

EUR/USD Drops Near 1.0600 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Grow

EUR/USD has dropped to near 1.0610, marking its sixth consecutive session of decline, amid trading in the Asian markets on Tuesday. The strong US Dollar, buoyed by rising US Treasury yields and solid retail sales data, is applying pressure on the Euro.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to approximately 106.20. Current yields for 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds are 4.92% and 4.60%, respectively. These increases are partly due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have driven investors towards the safety of the US Dollar.

March’s US Retail Sales showed a 0.7% rise, surpassing the anticipated 0.3% and revising February’s figures from 0.6% to 0.9%. The Retail Sales Control Group also reported a significant increase of 1.1%, which was a jump from the prior 0.3%.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly commented on the economic outlook, noting that while inflation has somewhat subsided, the journey to stable prices is not over. Daly stressed the necessity for inflation to consistently approach the target before any policy adjustments are made. She also pointed out the robust growth of the economy and the strong labor market, even though inflation rates remain above desired levels.

Conversely, the Euro’s value is weakening due to cautious statements from European Central Bank (ECB) officials. ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus hinted at a more than 50% chance of over three interest rate cuts this year. Additionally, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane indicated that domestic inflation has not improved as much as other inflation metrics. Despite this, Lane remains optimistic about reaching the inflation target by 2025.

These various economic indicators and policy statements from key central bank figures are shaping investor expectations and market dynamics, influencing the EUR/USD currency pair’s movements.

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NZD/USD

NZD/USD Holds Near 0.5950 as Business NZ PSI Enters Contraction

NZD/USD Holds Near 0.5950 as Business NZ PSI Enters Contraction

The NZD/USD has made a slight recovery from its five-month trough of 0.5927, observed on Monday, stabilizing around 0.5950 in the Asian trading session. This modest rebound occurs amidst a backdrop of economic concerns as New Zealand’s services sector reenters contraction territory. The Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for March distressingly fell to 47.5 from a previous 52.6, signaling a downturn in the sector.

Doug Steel, a Senior Economist at Bank of New Zealand (BNZ), commented on the implications of the latest PSI data. He noted that combining this weak service sector performance with the poor results from last week’s Manufacturing PMI points to a potential sharp contraction in GDP. Steel suggested that GDP could shrink by over 2% from last year, a forecast much gloomier than most analysts’ expectations.

Looking ahead, investors and market analysts are gearing up for a critical week of economic releases. Significant attention is centered on China, New Zealand’s principal trading partner, which will disclose several key economic figures on Tuesday. These include the Q1 GDP growth rate along with March’s Industrial Output and Retail Sales data. The anticipation around these releases is high as they could indicate shifts in regional economic dynamics.

Furthermore, domestic focus will soon turn to New Zealand’s own economic health with the upcoming release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. This inflation metric is crucial for gauging the country’s economic trajectory and potential monetary policy adjustments.

In the United States, the economic landscape appears robust by comparison. Recent data revealed a higher-than-expected rise in the Core Producer Price Index (PPI), with a year-over-year increase of 2.4% in March, surpassing the forecasted 2.3%. This indicates persistent inflationary pressures, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary easing strategies.

Market watchers are also poised for the release of the US Retail Sales figures next Monday, which will provide further insights into consumer confidence and spending trends. Additionally, the financial community will closely follow a panel discussion featuring Lorie K. Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, at the upcoming BoJ-IMF conference.

These upcoming events underscore a week filled with pivotal economic data that could influence global financial markets and inform future monetary policy decisions in both New Zealand and abroad.

 

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USD-CHF

USD/CHF Rises Above 0.9100 Before US PPI Data

USD/CHF Rises Above 0.9100 Before US PPI Data

In the early European session on Thursday, the USD/CHF currency pair exhibited a bullish momentum, climbing to 0.9125, marking its highest level since October 2023. This upward trend in the pair is primarily attributed to the unexpectedly high U.S. inflation figures for March, which have led investors to revise their predictions regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, now leaning away from a reduction this year. This shift in investor sentiment has fortified the U.S. Dollar (USD), lending it considerable support.

The shift in expectations came after the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which indicated a significant and unanticipated increase. This surge in inflation resulted in analysts pushing back their forecasts for the first rate cut, now expected in September instead of the previously anticipated June. Breaking down the numbers, the headline CPI witnessed a 0.4% month-over-month increase in March, while the annual CPI saw a 3.5% year-over-year jump. Even more telling was the Core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy sectors; it rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and exhibited a substantial 3.8% increase from the previous year.

The minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting further underscored concerns about persistently high inflation. Federal Reserve officials expressed unease regarding inflation levels, which continued to exceed the Fed’s 2% target. This discomfort, coupled with the recent data, did little to boost confidence that inflation was on a trajectory towards this target. Consequently, the persistence of higher U.S. interest rates has been a significant factor propelling the USD upwards, which in turn has positively impacted the USD/CHF pair.

Concurrently, the geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Middle East, introduces a layer of uncertainty that could influence currency markets. The ongoing tensions and the precarious nature of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas add to this uncertainty. The recent statements by Israel’s Foreign Minister, Israel Kat, were a stark reminder of the volatile situation. He cautioned that Israel would respond firmly if Iran initiated an attack from its territory. This statement followed remarks by Iran’s supreme leader, who called for retribution against Israel for a perceived attack on an Iranian consulate in Syria the previous week.

Such geopolitical tensions typically result in an increased demand for safe-haven assets, with the Swiss Franc (CHF) often being a beneficiary of such shifts in investor preference. Therefore, while the USD gains strength from domestic economic factors, the CHF could see a boost from these international developments, making the USD/CHF pair one to watch closely in the current global context.

 

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RBA Holding Rates Steady

AUD/JPY Nears 99.90 Amid Expectations of RBA Holding Rates Steady

AUD/JPY Nears 99.90 Amid Expectations of RBA Holding Rates Steady

The Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY) exchange rate has shown a significant uptrend, reaching nearly 99.90 during Monday’s European trading session. This bullish trend in the currency pair is largely driven by the robust performance of the Australian Dollar, buoyed by positive developments in Australia’s domestic financial markets. A key contributor to this strength is the notable rise in the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX 200 Index), especially with a marked surge in the technology sector at the week’s onset.

Complementing the Australian Dollar’s rise is the uptick in Australia’s 10-year government bond yield, which has soared to approximately 4.1%, marking a new high in over a month. This increase mirrors the rally in U.S. bond yields, triggered by unexpectedly strong U.S. job data. Consequently, there’s growing speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may opt for a prolonged period of higher interest rates.

Investor sentiment is tilting away from the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) implementing rate cuts anytime in 2024. This shift is underpinned by the recent positive economic indicators from the U.S., which hint at sustained higher borrowing costs in the world’s largest economy. Such expectations are lending support to the Australian Dollar, further propelling the AUD/JPY pair upward.

Despite these gains, the Australian Dollar faced some pressure last week due to stagnant Final Retail Sales and less-than-optimistic Trade Balance data. Market watchers remain vigilant regarding the trajectory of copper and oil prices, as any significant appreciation in these commodities could bolster the Australian Dollar further, positively influencing the AUD/JPY pair.

On the other side of the pairing, the Japanese Yen is experiencing downward pressure, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) showing reticence towards any major policy tightening moves. Furthermore, easing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are reducing the traditional safe-haven appeal of the Yen. Notably, Israel’s recent decision to pull back additional troops from Southern Gaza, potentially in response to international pressures, has contributed to this de-escalation.

Adding to the mix, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent remarks indicate a possible shift in the BoJ’s policy approach. Speaking about his tenure, which began about a year ago, Governor Ueda expressed an interest in simplifying and clarifying the central bank’s policy framework, contingent on favorable economic conditions. This potential policy shift, coupled with the global economic landscape, plays a pivotal role in shaping the dynamics of the AUD/JPY currency pair.

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EUR/USD Declines Toward

EUR/USD Declines Toward 1.0830 Amid Market Caution, Attention on US NFP Data

EUR/USD Declines Toward 1.0830 Amid Market Caution, Attention on US NFP Data

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) continues its downward trajectory that began on Thursday, approaching a value near 1.0830 during the Asian trading session on Friday. This movement reflects an increase in market caution, significantly influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have bolstered the US Dollar (USD).

The current geopolitical climate has become more strained following Iran’s vow to retaliate against Israel’s recent attack on its embassy in Syria, an incident that resulted in the deaths of Iranian military personnel. Additionally, new reports suggesting heightened threats against Israeli embassies in the United States by Iran have further intensified market apprehensions.

On the economic front, the USD experienced some downward pressure due to less-than-robust employment data from the United States. Despite this, remarks from several Federal Reserve officials that were perceived as neutral seem to have curbed a steeper decline in the USD’s value.

In terms of specific data, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 29 increased to 221,000 from the previous week’s figure of 212,000, though it was still below market expectations of 214,000. US Challenger Job Cuts for March also showed an increase, reaching 90,309, which is above the previous figure of 84,638.On the other side of the Atlantic, the Eurozone’s economic indicators paint a mixed picture. The Eurostat Producer Price Index (PPI) for February showed a decrease of 1.0%, surpassing expectations and marking a more significant decline than in previous months. Furthermore, the year-over-year decline in the PPI also outstripped expectations, though by a smaller margin. 

The Eurozone’s Composite PMI also showed signs of improvement, indicating a slight expansion in economic activity. Interestingly, the latest inflation data from the Eurozone shows a sharper-than-expected decrease in the annual rate for March. This development fuels speculation about potential monetary policy actions by the European Central Bank (ECB), with some market participants anticipating a possible rate cut in June. As traders navigate these multifaceted economic and geopolitical landscapes, they keenly await upcoming data releases. Significant among these are Germany’s Factory Orders and Eurozone Retail Sales. 

From the United States, the market is particularly focused on the upcoming release of Average Hourly Earnings and Nonfarm Payrolls data, which are considered crucial indicators of the country’s economic health.

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USD/CAD Nears

USD/CAD Nears 1.3560, Drops Due to Rising Crude Oil Prices

USD/CAD Nears 1.3560, Drops Due to Rising Crude Oil Prices

The USD/CAD currency pair continues its downward trajectory for the second consecutive day, inching closer to 1.3560 in the Asian trading session on Wednesday. This negative movement is primarily influenced by the robust performance of Crude oil prices, which bolsters the Canadian Dollar (CAD), thereby exerting a downward force on the USD/CAD pair.

Crude oil prices, particularly Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), are hovering around $84.80, marking their highest point since October 2023. This surge in oil prices can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the weakening of the US Dollar and rising concerns over supply disruptions due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Furthermore, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the US Dollar against a basket of major currencies, is facing a downward pressure, contributing to the weakening of the USD/CAD pair. This weakening of the DXY comes in the wake of dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Notably, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed an expectation of potential rate cuts later in the year. Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that three rate cuts in 2024 might be “reasonable,” though such a decision would depend on further convincing economic evidence.

In recent US economic news, data released on Tuesday highlighted some key figures. The US February JOLTS Job Openings report showed an increase to 8.756 million, up from the previous figure of 8.748 million, exceeding market expectations. Additionally, there was a notable rebound in Factory Orders, which rose by 1.4% month-on-month in February, following a 3.8% decline in the previous period.

Investors and market participants are now turning their attention to upcoming economic data releases. For Canada, the focus is on the Import and Export data due on Thursday, and the labor market data scheduled for release on Friday. In the United States, key data points include the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, both set for release on Wednesday. Moreover, the US economic outlook is set to gain further clarity with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum in Stanford.

Overall, the combination of strong Crude oil prices, dovish statements from Fed officials, and upcoming economic data releases are key factors influencing the movement of the USD/CAD pair, with market participants closely monitoring these developments to gauge future trends.

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NZD/USD Nears 0.5980 Amid Fed's Powell Dovish

NZD/USD Nears 0.5980 Amid Fed’s Powell Dovish Remarks, Eyes on US ISM PMI

NZD/USD Nears 0.5980 Amid Fed’s Powell Dovish Remarks, Eyes on US ISM PMI

The NZD/USD currency pair has continued its upward trajectory for the second straight day, making notable gains during Monday’s Asian trading session and approaching the 0.5980 mark. This upward movement comes in the wake of dovish statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday. Powell’s comments, particularly regarding the recent Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data from the United States, have been interpreted as aligning with the Fed’s openness to potential interest rate reductions this year.

Adding to this sentiment, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller has expressed that there’s no urgency to implement rate cuts, given the persistent inflationary pressures. Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly has underlined the Fed’s readiness to adjust rates as necessary based on evolving data, while also highlighting the strength of the US economy and downplaying the likelihood of an imminent downturn.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been facing headwinds, partly due to lower yields on US Treasury bonds. The DXY is currently hovering around 104.50, with yields on the 2-year and 10-year US bonds at 4.60% and 4.19%, respectively. Despite these challenges, Fed officials are still projecting three rate reductions within the year, with market anticipations leaning towards the first cut occurring at the Fed’s June meeting.

On the other side of the pairing, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is experiencing its own pressures, fueled by speculations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might start reducing policy rates early next year. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr has noted the central bank’s progress in reining in inflation to within its target range. Orr has also suggested that the peak in interest rates has likely been reached, paving the way for potential rate cuts.

Further boosting the Kiwi Dollar, recent data from China has shown encouraging signs. The Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March indicated that manufacturing activity in China expanded for the first time in six months. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI reported a figure of 51.1, slightly above expectations and the previous month’s figure of 50.9. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.8 in March from 49.1 previously, while the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.0 from 51.4.

Looking ahead, traders are likely to approach the market with caution as they await the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI from the United States, scheduled for later in the North American session. Additionally, upcoming data releases, such as the Building Permits from Statistics New Zealand this Thursday, will be closely monitored for their potential impact on currency movements.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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WTI Crude Oil Climbs to $73.50 as Middle-East Tensions Raise Supply Disruption Fears

WTI Crude Oil Rises to $73.50 Amid Middle-East Tensions and Potential Supply Disruption

WTI Crude Oil Rises to $73.50 Amid Middle-East Tensions and Potential Supply Disruption

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil continues its upward trend for the fourth consecutive day, trading near $73.50 per barrel during Friday’s Asian session. The rise in oil prices is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from a region that accounts for approximately one-third of global crude production.

US President Joe Biden revealed that the US is in discussions with Israel regarding possible strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, as tensions mount following Iran’s missile attack on Israel earlier in the week. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran would face severe repercussions for its actions, which included firing over 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, according to a BBC report.

Despite the growing risks, OPEC+—a group that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia and Kazakhstan—has significant spare capacity to offset a potential loss of Iranian supply. However, if Iran retaliates by targeting the oil facilities of its Gulf neighbors, it could present significant challenges to global supply.

OPEC+ has been reducing oil output in recent years to support prices amid sluggish global demand. Currently, the group’s production cuts amount to 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd). Analysts estimate that Saudi Arabia has the capacity to increase production by 3 million bpd, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) could boost output by 1.4 million bpd if necessary.

In a separate development, Libya’s National Oil Corporation and its eastern-based government announced on Thursday the reopening of oil fields and export terminals, ending a leadership dispute that had severely curtailed the country’s oil production. According to Reuters, this resolution is expected to restore a significant portion of Libya’s crude supply to the global market.

 

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WTI Jumps Above $70 Amid Fears of Oil Supply Disruptions After Iran Missile Strike on Israel

WTI Surges Above $70 as Iran Missile Strike on Israel Sparks Fears in Global Oil Markets

WTI Surges Above $70 as Iran Missile Strike on Israel Sparks Fears in Global Oil Markets

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, climbed to around $70.65 on Wednesday. The surge comes after Iran launched missiles at Israel, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from the region.

Iran fired over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to vow retaliation. Tehran warned that any counterattack would lead to “vast destruction,” stoking fears of a broader conflict. Israel has also hinted at the possibility of striking Iranian oil facilities, which could escalate into a regional war, further heightening concerns about supply disruptions in the global oil market.
Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories fell less than expected last week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude stockpiles in the US declined by 1.5 million barrels for the week ending September 27, compared to the prior week’s 4.339 million barrel drop. Market expectations were for a decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

On the downside, recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, who pushed back against calls for a significant rate cut in November, could weigh on WTI prices. Powell acknowledged that more rate cuts are likely, given the economy’s solid footing, but he cautioned against making drastic adjustments too quickly.

Traders are closely watching speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, including Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Beth Hammack, Alberto Musalem, and Michelle Bowman, for further market guidance. Any hawkish signals from the Fed could pressure WTI prices. It’s also important to note that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, which typically boosts oil demand.

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WTI Holds Near $69.00 Amid Rising Middle East Supply Fears

WTI Holds Near $69.00 Amid Rising Middle East Supply Fears

WTI Holds Near $69.00 Amid Rising Middle East Supply Fears

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude holds steady around $69.20 per barrel during Monday’s Asian session, driven by rising concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from escalating conflict in the Middle East. Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly Israel’s intensified attacks on Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, have sparked fears of instability, which could push oil prices higher.

ANZ Research, as reported by Reuters, noted that the increasing likelihood of Iran’s involvement in the conflict is contributing to concerns, as Iran is a major oil producer and OPEC member. Over the weekend, Israel expanded its military campaign by bombing Houthi targets in Yemen, following the recent killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

On the other hand, oil prices are facing downward pressure from mixed economic data out of China, the world’s largest oil importer. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for September fell to 49.3, signaling contraction, while the NBS Manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.8, surpassing market expectations.

Oil traders are also keeping a close eye on China’s monetary stimulus measures aimed at boosting economic activity and energy demand. China recently announced a CNY 1 trillion capital injection into its largest state banks, marking the most significant financial move since the 2008 crisis.

However, potential headwinds for crude prices could come from Saudi Arabia’s plans to increase production. Saudi Arabia is expected to resume oil production on December 1, with OPEC+ agreeing to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day. Reports suggest that the Kingdom is committed to this increase, even if it temporarily pressures prices downward.

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WTI Extends Rally Above $70.00 as Hurricane Francine Disrupts Production

WTI Extends Rally Above $70.00 as Hurricane Francine Disrupts Production

WTI Extends Rally Above $70.00 as Hurricane Francine Disrupts Production

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.35 on Tuesday, continuing its rally as Hurricane Francine impacts oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico. The storm has caused significant disruptions, with the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) reporting on Monday that roughly 12% of crude oil production and 16% of natural gas output in the Gulf have been halted. This supply disruption has pushed WTI prices to two-week highs.

Adding to the bullish momentum, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Investors are increasingly betting on a 50 basis point rate cut, according to CME FedWatch. Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, which typically supports increased demand for oil.
However, ongoing concerns about Chinese demand may temper some of WTI’s gains. China, the world’s largest oil importer, continues to show signs of an economic slowdown. Over the weekend, data revealed that Chinese industrial production growth fell to a five-month low in August, with further deterioration in retail sales and new home prices.

Xtrememarkets market strategist Yeap Jun Rong highlighted that weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data has dampened market sentiment, raising doubts about future oil demand as China’s growth outlook remains sluggish. This could weigh on WTI’s upward momentum.

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WTI Falls to Around $72.50 as OPEC+ Plans Production Increase

WTI Falls to Around $72.50 as OPEC+ Plans Production Increase

WTI Falls to Around $72.50 as OPEC+ Plans Production Increase

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have declined for the second consecutive session, trading near $72.50 per barrel during Monday’s Asian trading hours. This downward trend is largely attributed to reports that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) are planning to increase oil production in the upcoming quarter.

According to a Reuters report citing six sources, OPEC+ is expected to proceed with a planned production increase starting in October. Specifically, eight OPEC+ member countries are set to boost their output by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month. This move is part of a broader strategy to gradually reverse a recent production cut of 2.2 million bpd while maintaining other cuts until the end of 2025.
However, the fall in crude oil prices could be mitigated by ongoing supply concerns. In Libya, oil export disruptions caused by conflicts between rival factions have constrained supply. Despite this, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company has resumed production, operating at up to 120,000 bpd to satisfy domestic demand.

Weak demand in China and the United States, the world’s largest oil consumers, could further weigh on WTI prices. An official survey indicated that China’s manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, accompanied by a sharp drop in factory gate prices. In response, Chinese policymakers are advancing plans to increase economic stimulus for households.

In the US, oil consumption in June hit its lowest seasonal levels since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) last Friday. Analysts at ANZ have highlighted potential downside risks to growth in 2025, driven by economic challenges in both China and the US. They suggest that OPEC may need to delay phasing out its voluntary production cuts if it aims to support higher oil prices.

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WTI Crude Oil Prices Remain Steady

WTI Crude Oil Prices Remain Steady Below $73 Amid US Recession Concerns and Easing Supply Fears

WTI Crude Oil Prices Remain Steady Below $73 Amid US Recession Concerns and Easing Supply Fears

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are struggling to build on Thursday’s rebound from a two-week low near the mid-$71 range, trading in a narrow band around $72.75 during Friday’s Asian session. The commodity remains nearly flat for the day and is set for significant weekly losses due to ongoing concerns about slowing demand.

The downward revision of US job growth figures for the year through March has reignited fears of a potential recession in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. Additionally, persistent concerns about an economic slowdown in China, the world’s top oil importer, are acting as headwinds for WTI crude. Meanwhile, optimism about a ceasefire in Gaza is also limiting the upside for oil prices, as US officials indicated that a truce between Israel and Hamas could be imminent. This development eases concerns over a broader conflict in the Middle East, a critical oil-producing region, and potential supply disruptions.

On the supportive side, US government data released on Wednesday revealed a substantial drawdown in crude oil inventories, suggesting strong domestic demand. Moreover, market expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates—potentially announcing a 25 basis point reduction at the September meeting—could boost economic activity, thereby supporting crude oil prices. Despite these factors, the US Dollar’s inability to sustain its recovery from year-to-date lows provides some support to USD-denominated commodities, including crude oil, mitigating the risk of further declines.

Given these mixed signals, traders are cautious about taking new positions and are awaiting clearer market direction before betting on an extension of the nearly two-week downtrend in WTI prices.

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Oil Edges Higher Ahead of Weekly Stockpile Reports

Oil Edges Higher Ahead of Weekly Stockpile Reports

Oil Edges Higher Ahead of Weekly Stockpile Reports

Oil prices are trading relatively flat on Wednesday after experiencing sharp declines over the past three sessions. The stabilization follows reports that a tanker in the Red Sea was attacked by Houthi rebels. Delta Tankers confirmed that its vessel, Sounion, sustained minor damage in the attack. This incident adds further tension to the region just as Hamas is reportedly considering a ceasefire proposal in Gaza from both Israel and the US.

Similarly, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trying to recover from a losing streak that erased all its gains for 2024. The key focus today is the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which could provide insights ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. Additionally, the Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision may result in adjustments to employment data for the past year, up until March.

At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude is trading at $73.23 per barrel, while Brent Crude is at $76.92 per barrel.

Oil Market Update: Red Sea Tensions and Stockpile Data

  • OPEC+ Production Constraints: OPEC+ is unlikely to increase production significantly due to concerns that higher output could further depress prices, especially with increased supply from the US and Brazil, according to BP’s Chief Economist Spencer Dale, as reported by Bloomberg.
  • Uganda’s Crude Development: Uganda’s Energy Minister, Ruth Nankabirwa, announced progress on a $20 billion Crude development project in partnership with TotalEnergies and Cnooc.
  • Tanker Incident: Delta Tankers reported that the Sounion tanker has been attacked three times and is still determining if the vessel remains on course or is adrift, according to Reuters.
  • Crude Stockpile Changes: The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a modest stockpile increase of 347,000 barrels overnight, which contrasts with analysts’ expectations of a 2.8 million barrel drawdown.

Later today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly Crude stockpile data. The previous report indicated a build of 1.357 million barrels, with expectations now for a drawdown of 2.8 million barrels.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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European Futures Decline Amidst Rising Yields and Market Downturn

UAE and China Renew $4.9 Billion Currency Swap Agreement

UAE and China Renew $4.9 Billion Currency Swap Agreement

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the People’s Republic of China have reinforced their financial ties by renewing a substantial currency swap arrangement. On Tuesday, the Central Bank of the UAE and the People’s Bank of China ratified a continuation of their bilateral currency swap agreement. This deal, valued at 18 billion Emirati Dirhams (approximately $4.9 billion), is set to last for another five years, as confirmed by the UAE’s financial regulator through an official statement. This extension is more than a financial protocol; it represents a strategic effort to deepen the financial and trade relations between the two nations.

In a move signaling commitment to future-oriented financial technology, both nations have also consented to collaborate on the evolution of digital currencies. This is cemented by a newly signed memorandum of understanding (MoU) aimed at fostering cooperation in the burgeoning domain of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Under the terms of this MoU, the UAE and China will exchange knowledge on best practices and regulatory frameworks pertinent to digital currencies, and will jointly support the advancement of shared initiatives and projects in this field.

A hallmark of this collaborative venture is the “mBridge” project. This initiative is a pioneering platform involving multiple central banks and is designed to expedite cross-border trade payments, enabling them to occur with near-instantaneous processing times. Such technological advancements are indicative of the shifting paradigm in global financial transactions, reflecting an increasing reliance on digital solutions to streamline and secure cross-border commerce.

The economic relationship between the UAE and China is robust, with the UAE being China’s premier trading partner within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as of 2021. Notably, the value of non-oil trade transactions between these nations reached an impressive AED264.2 billion in 2022, marking a significant growth of 18% from the previous year. This flourishing trade relationship is a testament to the deep economic integration and mutual reliance that characterize the bond between the two countries.

China’s investment footprint in the UAE is equally noteworthy. As of the beginning of 2021, China was recognized as the third-largest foreign investor in the UAE, boasting investments upwards of $9.3 billion. This figure represents an extraordinary increase of more than 500% from the levels recorded in 2013, as reported by the UAE’s Ministry of Economy. This surge in investment underscores the confidence and strategic interest China places in the UAE’s economic landscape, further solidifying the long-term economic partnership between the two nations.

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Yuan’s Rally Strengthens with the Support of Seasonal Trends

Yuan’s Rally Strengthens with the Support of Seasonal Trends

The Chinese yuan is experiencing a notable upswing, propelled by seasonal forces and market speculation that anticipates a continuous rally. Historical data reveals a pattern of the yuan gaining strength in the final months of the year, a trend particularly pronounced in 2022 as reported by financial analysis. This seasonal rise is attributed to the increased need for local currency by exporters, preparing for the year-end financial settlements and the upcoming Lunar New Year celebrations, as observed by China International Capital Corp.

Throughout this year, the yuan has struggled compared to other Asian currencies, prompting corporations to delay converting their dollar reserves in hopes of more advantageous exchange rates. However, with the yuan on course for its most robust month in twelve months amidst a waning US dollar, the tide may be shifting. Companies are likely to adjust their strategies, potentially initiating a more robust and enduring recovery for the yuan.

The sustainability of the yuan’s rally is closely tied to the performance of the US dollar. Analysts, including Evercore ISI’s Neo Wang, recognize December as a critical period where historical patterns suggest a strong yuan performance against the dollar.

Market sentiment is also buoyed by the belief that the yuan’s prolonged decline has reached a turning point, with forecasts suggesting that it may approach the 7-per-dollar mark, a rate last witnessed in May.

The shift in sentiment regarding Chinese financial assets is notable, as economic policymakers in China intensify efforts to revitalize the struggling property sector and as geopolitical tensions ease. The People’s Bank of China has continued to set a supportive reference rate for the yuan, which has recently outperformed this benchmark for the first time since mid-2022. The onshore yuan’s closure at an appreciating rate further signals confidence in the currency’s trajectory.

Looking ahead, analysts maintain an optimistic view for the yuan’s performance as the year draws to a close and looking into 2024. Factors contributing to this positive outlook include a stabilizing macroeconomic environment and favorable seasonal patterns that typically benefit the yuan towards the end of one year and the start of the next. This sentiment reflects a broader confidence in the resilience and potential upturn of the yuan in the global currency markets.

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Japanese Yen Gains on Soft Dollar, Fed Dovishness, and Bullish BoJ Outlook

Japanese Yen Gains on Soft Dollar, Fed Dovishness, and Bullish BoJ Outlook

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has recently retreated from its strong gains against the US Dollar (USD), marking a second day of weakening on Wednesday. This shift comes after the US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) hawkish minutes and better-than-expected labor and consumer sentiment data provided a boost to the USD, lifting it from its lowest levels since the end of August. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair made a notable recovery from the 147.15 area, which was a two-month low reached on Tuesday.

Despite this, spot prices struggled to maintain their upward trajectory past the 149.75 level, facing resistance on Thursday. Market sentiment is tilting toward the belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have concluded its policy-tightening phase and could begin reducing interest rates by May 2024. This anticipation has led to a decline in US Treasury yields, resulting in the selling off of the USD. Furthermore, the possibility of a hawkish pivot in the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy has exerted downward pressure on the USD/JPY, keeping it subdued near the 149.00 level as the European trading session approaches.

In the recent market movements, the Japanese Yen did see a dip to 149.75 against the Dollar on Wednesday but managed to recoup some of its losses by Thursday. Market speculation is rife that the BoJ may terminate its negative interest rate policy in early 2024, contributing to the USD/JPY’s dip on Thursday. Despite this, minutes from the Fed’s last meeting hint at a continued restrictive stance on interest rates.

Economic data from the US painted a mixed picture: Initial Jobless Claims fell significantly to 209,000 for the week ending November 18, indicating a robust labor market. However, the Consumer Sentiment Index continued to decline, reaching 61.3 in November, and inflation expectations rose to 4.5%, marking the highest since April 2023. Durable Goods Orders also fell by 5.4% in October, signaling economic headwinds.

Market participants are now discounting the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes, with many anticipating a rate cut by mid-2024. Traders, adjusting their positions ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday, are now turning their attention to forthcoming PMI data from the Eurozone and the UK, which could affect global risk sentiment and the demand for the safe-haven Yen. The upcoming release of Japan’s National core CPI, followed by US PMIs, will also be closely monitored for their potential impact on currency markets.

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ECB Highlights Potential Stability Risks from Bank Taxation Impacting Valuations

ECB Highlights Potential Stability Risks from Bank Taxation Impacting Valuations

The European Central Bank (ECB) recently expressed concerns about the potential risks to financial stability arising from special taxes imposed on banks. According to an ECB report released on Monday, these taxes could lead to tighter financing conditions across the region, exacerbated by the low stock market valuations of these financial institutions.

Despite European banks reporting their highest earnings in several years, their stock values have not seen a significant increase from the pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. The ECB attributes this discrepancy partly to the proposed special bank taxes in various countries, sparking worries about the implications for shareholder dividends.

The ECB’s report emphasizes the long-term risks associated with these developments. Banks that are undervalued by investors could face difficulties in raising new equity when necessary. This scenario is particularly concerning as the capital needed to support lending is funded by lending rates. Therefore, weaker valuations of banks could lead to stricter financing terms and conditions, directly affecting the broader economy.

Special bank taxes have become a favored approach by governments to address budget deficits, particularly in the context of rising borrowing costs. Many policymakers justify these taxes by pointing out that banks have disproportionately benefited from the rapid increase in interest rates, yet have been slow in passing these benefits on to consumers.

Over the past two years, various proposals for special banking taxes have been introduced, with the aim of generating over €6 billion for government coffers next year, as per Bloomberg News. Nonetheless, the actual revenue generated may be lower than anticipated due to exemptions and loopholes. For instance, in Italy, certain provisions allow banks to circumvent these taxes.

This situation poses a complex challenge for policymakers and regulators. On one hand, there is a need to manage public finances effectively, especially in a period marked by economic uncertainty and rising costs. On the other hand, ensuring the stability and health of the banking sector is crucial for the overall economy. The ECB’s warning underlines the delicate balance that must be struck between these objectives.

The report by the ECB serves as a cautionary note, highlighting the intricate link between fiscal policies, bank valuations, and economic stability. It calls for careful consideration of the implications of such tax measures on the banking sector and, by extension, on the financing conditions within the European economy. As governments navigate these challenges, the focus remains on finding a sustainable solution that supports public finances without compromising the stability and efficiency of the banking system.

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Pimco Invests in Yen Anticipating Stricter BOJ Policies

Pimco Invests in Yen Anticipating Stricter BOJ Policies

Pacific Investment Management Co. (Pimco) is strategically purchasing Japanese yen, speculating that Japan’s central bank may soon implement tighter monetary policies due to rising inflation. The investment firm took a bullish stance on the yen, building up a long position as the currency’s value dipped beyond 140 to the US dollar. This move aligns with Pimco’s anticipation of a potential policy shift by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), including a move away from its yield-curve control policies and possibly leading to an interest rate hike.

Despite a general expectation of a yen rally due to contrasting policies of a hawkish Federal Reserve and a dovish BOJ, the yen has depreciated over 12% against the dollar this year, nearing a three-decade low. This decline occurred even as the BOJ has shown signs of easing its tight control over the yield curve.

The BOJ’s incremental steps towards a more constricted monetary stance have not yet resulted in a durable appreciation of the yen. In fact, leveraged funds have increased their short positions on the currency, indicating a widespread prediction of further depreciation.

Emmanuel Sharef of Pimco believes there is a clear need for the BOJ to continue tightening its monetary policy, possibly through more subtle methods initially, such as gradually phasing out its yield-curve control, with a potential rate hike on the horizon.

Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida, now with Pimco, has speculated that the BOJ may abandon its yield-curve control by the end of the year if inflation persists and could adjust its short-term interest rate to zero from the current negative rate early next year.

Japan’s inflation cooled slightly to below 3% in September, offering some validation to the BOJ’s assessment that inflationary pressures are reaching their peak. However, the rate still exceeded the consensus forecast.

In the backdrop of market dynamics, Sharef also manages strategies at Pimco, such as the Inflation Response Multi-Asset Fund, which has outperformed the majority of its peers over the past three years. Moreover, the yen might find additional support from possible intervention by Japanese authorities, similar to their actions last year when the currency’s value fell sharply. Sharef noted the BOJ’s sensitivity to the yen’s fluctuations, especially around the 150 mark against the dollar, suggesting that intervention remains a significant consideration for the central bank.

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Australian Dollar Recovers from Intraday Losses

Australian Dollar holds above key level before US housing data release

Australian Dollar holds above key level before US housing data release

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to navigate through difficult market conditions, maintaining its stance above a significant threshold as it grapples with losses incurred on Friday. This comes in the wake of disappointing economic figures from the United States (US), which were publicized on Thursday. The apparent weakness of the AUD/USD exchange rate could be a reflection of market trepidation, potentially rooted in uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decisions. Nevertheless, recent softness in the US job market, alongside fresh inflation figures, seem to bolster the argument that further rate hikes by the Fed may be off the table for now.

Despite the release of positive job data from Australia, which showed an unexpected surge in employment figures for October, the AUD struggled to capitalize on these gains. The increase in employment exceeded market expectations, but a closer look revealed that the majority of these new roles were part-time, which cast a shadow over the seemingly favorable news.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the currency’s strength against a basket of foreign currencies, experienced a lateral movement marked by a slight negative undertone. This came after a session marked by volatility that initially seemed to support the US Dollar. Yet, even in the face of weaker-than-anticipated US economic statistics and a dip in bond yields, the Dollar managed to regain some of its lost ground. Notably, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note saw a decline, reaching a low of 4.43% on Thursday.

In the US, the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 3 hit the highest point recorded for the year, standing at 1.865 million, an increase from the prior count of 1.833 million. Furthermore, initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 10 witnessed a rise to 231,000, surpassing the anticipated 220,000, marking the highest surge in nearly three months. However, there was a silver lining in the form of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, which indicated a less negative output at -5.9, an improvement from the previous -9.0 reading.

As the market looks forward, the release of US housing data on Friday is keenly awaited. This data is likely to shed new light on the state of the housing market and could significantly sway trading dynamics for currency pairs such as the AUD/USD. Investors and traders alike are closely monitoring these indicators as they can have substantial implications for future monetary policy and economic health assessments.

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Australian Dollar Drops on Weak GDP Data and RBA Rate Cut Bets

Steady Growth in Australian Employment Accompanied by a Slight Rise in Unemployment Rates

Steady Growth in Australian Employment Accompanied by a Slight Rise in Unemployment Rates

Despite a stronger-than-anticipated surge in employment for October, Australia has seen a slight uptick in its unemployment rate, suggesting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may need to implement further measures to temper demand and curb inflationary pressures. The Australian economy saw the addition of 55,000 jobs, outstripping the predicted 24,000, with part-time roles being a significant contributor to this growth. The increase in employment, however, did not translate into a lower unemployment rate, which rose slightly to 3.7%, aligning with projections and maintaining the trend observed since the previous year, fluctuating between 3.4% and 3.7%.

The heightened unemployment rate can be attributed to an increase in the number of individuals actively seeking employment, as evidenced by the leap in the participation rate to 67%. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has linked this outcome to the temporary employment spurred by the October 14 referendum. This phenomenon seemed to have minimal impact on market sentiments, which remained relatively stable in response to the new data.

According to Diana Mousina, the deputy chief economist at AMP Ltd., the current statistics do not strongly indicate the necessity for an immediate rate increase in the upcoming December board meeting. Nonetheless, the prospect of a rate hike in February 2024 remains, contingent on the forthcoming quarterly inflation figures. Mousina further predicts a potential weakening in the macroeconomic climate by that time.

This labor market assessment follows closely on the heels of a business survey from earlier in the week, which highlighted sustained vigor within the corporate sector. Nevertheless, it also pointed to initial signs of weakening in forward-looking indicators. Michele Bullock, the new RBA Governor, has remarked on the relaxation of the labor market, which, despite remaining robust, is no longer as constricted as it once was. This observation is corroborated by a decline in certain key indicators, such as job vacancies, which have started to retreat from previously high levels. 

In sum, the Australian labor market is displaying a complex dynamic where increased employment does not necessarily equate to reduced unemployment, due to the growing workforce participation. This situation poses a challenge for the RBA as it navigates the twin objectives of sustaining employment growth while managing inflationary pressures.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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