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USD/CAD Holds Near One-Week Low

USD/CAD Drops Below 1.3650 Amid Weaker US Dollar

USD/CAD Drops Below 1.3650 Amid Weaker US Dollar

The USD/CAD currency pair experienced a dip to 1.3645 during the early European trading hours on Monday, marking its lowest point in nearly three weeks. This decline was primarily driven by a weakening US Dollar (USD), which continues to be the dominant force influencing the pair, especially in the absence of significant economic data releases from Canada.

As traders turn their attention to the week’s key events, the spotlight intensifies on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled to conclude on Wednesday. This meeting is crucial as it could provide insights into future monetary policy directions. Although no rate changes are anticipated at this meeting, the tone adopted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other committee members is expected to lean towards the hawkish side. Powell has previously emphasized the need for the central bank to be more confident that inflation is consistently trending towards its 2% target before considering any rate cuts.

The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has seen a noticeable shift in investor expectations. Last week, the likelihood of a rate reduction in July was pegged at 50%, but this has now dropped to 25%. By September, however, markets have priced in nearly a 60% chance of a rate cut, as per the CME FedWatch tool.

Recent inflation data from the US further complicates the economic landscape. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key measure of inflation, rose to 2.7% year-over-year (YoY) in March, up from 2.5% in February and surpassing market expectations of 2.6%. The Core PCE, which is closely watched by the Fed, increased to 2.8% YoY, also above the consensus of 2.6%.On the Canadian side, the policy stance of the Bank of Canada (BoC) is under scrutiny. 

Despite a recent split among its governing council members regarding the timing of interest rate reductions, there is a broad expectation that the BoC might begin to lower rates as early as June or July. Such a move could potentially place downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), although this might be somewhat mitigated by Canada’s inflation rate, which at 2.9% in March, sits comfortably within the BoC’s target range of 1-3%.

Adding to the complexities is the performance of crude oil prices, which traditionally influence the CAD due to Canada’s status as the largest crude oil exporter to the United States. A decline in crude oil prices has been exerting additional selling pressure on the CAD, further influencing the USD/CAD trading dynamics.

As the week progresses, market participants will closely monitor these developments, particularly the outcomes of the FOMC meeting and subsequent US employment data, to gauge potential directions for the USD/CAD pair.

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EUR/USD Holds Near 1.0600 as US Dollar Weakens on Profit-Taking

EUR/JPY Rises Above 167.50 After BoJ Rate Decision

EUR/JPY Rises Above 167.50 After BoJ Rate Decision

The EUR/JPY currency pair soared to its highest level since 2008, reaching 167.20 during the Asian trading session on Friday. This significant rise is largely attributed to the depreciation of the Japanese Yen (JPY) following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest policy announcement.In its April meeting, the BoJ opted to maintain the key interest rate at 0%, aligning with market expectations. This decision came after a notable rate hike in March—the first since 2007—which marked the end of Japan’s negative interest rate policy initiated in 2016.

The BoJ also updated its economic forecasts, suggesting that inflation is expected to hover near its 2% target for the next three years. This outlook hints at the possibility of further rate increases later this year as the central bank remains committed to adjusting its monetary stance to sustain economic growth and price stability. 

Additionally, the BoJ reaffirmed its commitment to purchasing government bonds at a rate of approximately 6 trillion yen ($38.45 billion) per month, as set out in its March guidance.Following these developments, the JPY saw a decrease in demand compared to the Euro (EUR), as traders reacted to the central bank’s stance and the broader economic signals.

Simultaneously, data from Japan indicated a slowdown in inflationary pressures within Tokyo. April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Tokyo showed a year-over-year increase of 1.8%, a decline from the previous 2.6% rise. The core CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, also increased by 1.8% year-over-year, falling short of the expected 2.7% and down from 2.9% in the prior period. 

These figures, representing a significant drop in inflation rates, also contributed to the weakening of the JPY as a traditionally safe-haven asset.Meanwhile, in Europe, discussions around monetary policy are also shaping market dynamics. European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Joachim Nagel recently voiced support for a potential rate cut in June, although he clarified that such a move would not necessarily lead to a series of further cuts. Additionally, ECB official Fabio Panetta expressed that modest rate reductions could mitigate the risk of prolonged economic stagnation within the eurozone.

These contrasting monetary policies and economic indicators in Japan and Europe are pivotal in driving the EUR/JPY exchange rate, reflecting broader economic trends and central bank strategies in both regions. As such, investors and traders continue to monitor these developments closely, adjusting their strategies in response to shifts in central bank policies and macroeconomic data.

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AUD/JPY Rises on Strong Australian Consumer Inflation Data

AUD/JPY Rises on Strong Australian Consumer Inflation Data

The AUD/JPY currency pair continues its upward trajectory for the third consecutive day, recovering from initial losses earlier on Wednesday. This rally is supported by the release of unexpectedly strong Consumer Price Index (CPI) data by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which significantly influences the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy direction. The positive inflation figures have strengthened the Australian Dollar (AUD), boosting the AUD/JPY exchange rate.

The Australian Dollar’s rise is further propelled by a surge in risk appetite, reflected in the gains seen in the ASX 200 Index, particularly within the technology and healthcare sectors. This positive movement in Australian shares mirrors the upward trend on Wall Street, which has been buoyed by impressive corporate earnings reports that have generally uplifted market sentiment. Additionally, easing tensions in the Middle East have also contributed to the favorable market environment, creating a more robust appetite for riskier assets like the Australian Dollar.

On the other hand, the Japanese Yen (JPY) faces challenges amid a widening yield gap between Japan and other major economies. This disparity has prompted traders to engage in ‘carry trade’ activities, where they borrow yen at lower interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. Despite the downward pressure on the Yen, there has been no intervention from Japanese authorities to shore up the currency. As the Bank of Japan (BoJ) begins its two-day policy meeting on Thursday, market participants speculate that Tokyo may delay any intervention in the currency market until at least the following week, as per insights from a Reuters report.

The AUD/JPY’s strength is a reflection of broader economic indicators and geopolitical developments, which continue to shape the dynamics between these two major currencies. As traders and investors keep a keen eye on the outcomes of the BoJ’s policy meeting and any potential moves by the Japanese authorities, the AUD/JPY cross remains a key barometer of shifting economic sentiments and policy decisions in the Asia-Pacific region. This scenario presents a complex interplay of economic data, central bank policies, and global market trends that drive the movements of these currencies on the forex market.

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USD/CHF Gains Momentum Above 0.8550 Ahead of FOMC Minutes

USD/CHF Rises Above 0.9100 on Hawkish Fed Comments

USD/CHF Rises Above 0.9100 on Hawkish Fed Comments

The USD/CHF currency pair exhibited strength on Monday morning during the early European trading hours, buoyed by a shift in market sentiment concerning the U.S. interest rate outlook. Market participants are now anticipating fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year, with expectations consolidating around just one or two adjustments.

This week, financial markets are keenly awaiting the release of key U.S. economic indicators that could influence Fed policy decisions going forward. Notably, the preliminary U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the first quarter (Q1) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will take center stage, providing fresh insights into the economic landscape.

Investors are recalibrating their interest rate forecasts in light of a resilient U.S. economy coupled with persistent inflation pressures. Despite inflation retreating from the peak levels seen during the pandemic, recent data suggest it remains above the Fed’s comfort zone. This has prompted several Fed officials to advocate for a cautious approach to monetary easing. They favor maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period than initially expected, a stance reinforced by a series of unexpectedly high inflation readings.

This “high-for-longer” interest rate scenario has been supportive for the U.S. dollar, lending upward momentum to the USD/CHF pair. The dollar’s ascent is further backed by remarks from key Fed figures. On Friday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated a potential delay in rate cuts, citing a “stalled” progress in reducing inflation to desired levels. Similarly, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has suggested that rate cuts might not occur until the end of the year, aligning with a more conservative monetary policy approach.

Meanwhile, the Swiss economic outlook also remains in focus. Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan recently emphasized the importance of prioritizing price stability in monetary policy decisions. He highlighted challenges such as low economic growth and high debt levels in many countries, which could influence Switzerland’s financial strategy.

Additionally, geopolitical developments could impact the financial markets. Rising tensions in the Middle East, especially between Israel and Iran, are likely to increase demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss Franc. This could potentially limit the upward trajectory of the USD/CHF pair by bolstering the Franc’s appeal during times of uncertainty.

In summary, the USD/CHF pair is navigating a complex landscape shaped by shifting Fed expectations, critical economic releases, and international tensions, all of which could dictate its performance in the near term.

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NZD/USD

NZD/USD Stays Below 0.5900 Amid Risk-Off Mood, Rising US Dollar Demand

NZD/USD Stays Below 0.5900 Amid Risk-Off Mood, Rising US Dollar Demand

The NZD/USD currency pair faced downward pressure, trading around 0.5880 in the early European session on Friday. The pair’s decline was influenced by a risk-off sentiment fueled by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, which boosted the US Dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven currency. Additionally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) saw an uptick, rising above 106.20 and nearing its highest level since November 2023.

Recent geopolitical developments have intensified concerns among investors. US officials disclosed that Israel had conducted military strikes against Iran and had informed the Biden administration of its plans to initiate these attacks within 24 to 48 hours from early Thursday.

Israeli authorities assured that the strikes would not target Iranian nuclear facilities, a detail confirmed by reports from CNN. These unfolding events in the Middle East are likely to increase market volatility as investors watch for potential impacts on global stability, which could further strengthen safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar.

Moreover, the possibility that the US Federal Reserve might postpone cuts to interest rates also lends support to the USD. Comments from several Fed officials highlighted ongoing high inflation in the US, suggesting that the central bank is looking for more decisive evidence of a downward inflation trajectory before making any moves to lower rates.

On the New Zealand side, economic data has shown a slight improvement, although challenges remain. Statistics New Zealand reported a decline in the country’s inflation, yet it continues to exceed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target range of 1 to 3%. This persistent high inflation might prompt the RBNZ to maintain elevated interest rates longer than some might anticipate, potentially supporting the NZD against further losses.

Investors are thus faced with a complex mix of factors: geopolitical risks enhancing the USD’s safe-haven status, tentative US monetary policy potentially delaying interest rate cuts, and New Zealand’s economic policy aimed at curbing inflation. These elements are crucial for market participants to consider as they evaluate the future movements of the NZD/USD pair amidst global financial uncertainty.

The situation remains fluid, with geopolitical tensions and economic indicators from both the US and New Zealand likely to drive significant market movements in the coming days. Investors will need to stay alert to the rapid developments in the Middle East and the economic updates from major central banks to navigate the volatile currency markets effectively.

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EUR/USD

EUR/USD Stays Above 1.0650 as US Dollar Faces Fresh Sell-Off

EUR/USD Stays Above 1.0650 as US Dollar Faces Fresh Sell-Off

The EUR/USD currency pair saw a modest increase, reaching 1.0672 in Thursday’s early Asian trading session. This rise was supported by a combination of renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar and a generally risk-acceptant market atmosphere. Key economic indicators set to be released later on Thursday include weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the CB Leading Index, and Existing Home Sales. These data points are eagerly awaited by investors who are gauging the economic landscape.

Despite the upward movement of the EUR/USD, sentiments were tempered by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell earlier in the week. Powell indicated that recent economic data do not provide much confidence that the Fed’s 2% inflation target will be met soon, suggesting a prolonged period of tight monetary policy which could strengthen the US Dollar in the short term. This hawkish outlook may limit the potential gains for the EUR/USD pair. Market predictions now reflect a nearly 71% expectation for a Fed rate cut in September, as per the CME FedWatch Tool.

Conversely, the European Central Bank (ECB) is showing signs of a more dovish policy stance. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel hinted at a possible rate cut in June, although he acknowledged that inflation rates are still higher than desirable. Furthermore, ECB official Bostjan Vasle proposed that the deposit rate might be reduced to 3% by year’s end, down from the current record high of 4%, provided that the expected disinflation progresses. This potential easing in ECB policy could pressure the Euro and, by extension, the EUR/USD pair.

The differing directions in monetary policy between the Fed and ECB are primarily influencing the dynamics of the EUR/USD exchange. While the Fed’s cautious approach might bolster the US Dollar, the ECB’s potential rate cuts could weaken the Euro, creating a complex environment for the currency pair. Investors continue to watch these developments closely, as they could significantly impact the direction of EUR/USD moving forward. As the global economic scenario evolves, the interplay between these monetary policies will be crucial in shaping market movements.

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USD/CAD

USD/CAD Drops as US Dollar Weakens and Oil Prices Fall

USD/CAD Drops as US Dollar Weakens and Oil Prices Fall

The USD/CAD currency pair ended its five-day rally, settling at around 1.3820 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. This shift was primarily due to a modest correction in the US Dollar (USD), which exerted downward pressure on the pair. Despite this, declining crude oil prices were seen as a potential threat to the Canadian Dollar (CAD), likely capping further losses in the USD/CAD pair.

Recent Canadian economic data has played a significant role in the forex dynamics. The latest inflation metrics could influence the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy decisions, particularly the possibility of easing borrowing conditions at its upcoming June meeting. Notably, the core inflation rate, which is a critical indicator for the central bank, showed continued signs of moderation.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% month-over-month in March, slightly below the anticipated 0.7%, but still above February’s 0.3% increase. Annually, CPI increased by 2.9%, marginally higher than the previous 2.8%. More critically, the year-over-year Core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, increased by 2.0%, down from 2.1% in the prior measurement, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures. On a monthly basis, the Core CPI saw a 0.5% increase, significantly higher than the previous month’s 0.1% rise.

Meanwhile, in the United States, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have maintained a hawkish tone which might support the USD in the short term. The US Dollar Index (DXY), after reaching a five-month peak at 106.51, experienced a slight retreat due to a decrease in US Treasury yields.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent comments have underscored this perspective. During a speech on Tuesday, Powell acknowledged the robustness of the US economy but cautioned that progress towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target has been slower than expected this year. Powell’s statement indicated that more time and possibly more stringent monetary measures would be needed to stabilize inflation rates.

This hawkish outlook from the Fed contrasts with the potential dovish turn by the BoC, based on the Canadian inflation data. Such diverging paths could influence the USD/CAD pair significantly in the coming weeks. The interplay between US monetary policy and Canadian economic indicators will likely be a key driver of the pair’s movements as traders and investors recalibrate their expectations based on these developments.

In summary, while the USD/CAD has paused its recent uptrend due to a combination of factors including US Dollar corrections and weaker oil prices, the underlying economic indicators from both Canada and the United States will play crucial roles in determining its future direction. Investors should keep a close watch on upcoming economic releases and central bank statements to better navigate this volatile currency pair.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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EUR/USD Holds Steady

EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.0900 After Breaking Losing Streak

EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.0900 After Breaking Losing Streak

The EUR/USD pair managed to halt its three-day losing streak, trading around 1.0920 during the Asian session on Friday. The pair’s upward movement can be attributed to a weaker US Dollar (USD), driven by rising expectations of a dovish policy outlook from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

However, the pair faced some challenges as US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 233,000 for the week ending August 2, coming in below the market forecast of 240,000. This drop followed an upward revision to 250,000 for the previous week, marking the highest level in a year.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, has retreated from recent highs, trading around 103.20. Additionally, a decline in US Treasury yields, currently at 4.01% and 3.97%, has added pressure on the Greenback.

On Thursday, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid suggested that easing monetary policy could be “appropriate” if inflation remains subdued. Schmid noted that the current Fed policy stance is “not that restrictive” and acknowledged that while the Fed is nearing its 2% inflation target, it has not yet fully achieved it, according to Reuters.

On the European side, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn commented on Wednesday that the ECB could continue cutting interest rates if the inflation trend shows signs of slowing in the near future. Rehn stated, “Inflation continues to slow down, but the path to the 2% target remains bumpy this year,” as reported by Reuters.

Traders are now focused on Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), scheduled for release on Friday. Market expectations are steady, with forecasts predicting a 2.6% year-on-year increase and a 0.5% month-on-month rise for July.

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EUR/USD Strengthens Above 1.0900 Amid Softer US Dollar

EUR/USD Strengthens Above 1.0900 Amid Softer US Dollar, Geopolitical Risks in Focus

EUR/USD Strengthens Above 1.0900 Amid Softer US Dollar, Geopolitical Risks in Focus

The EUR/USD pair rebounds to around 1.0935 during Thursday’s Asian trading session, breaking a two-day losing streak. A weaker US Dollar (USD) supports the pair, although rising geopolitical risks may limit further gains. Market sentiment remains cautious, with attention on the upcoming US Initial Jobless Claims report.

Last week’s weaker-than-expected US employment data fueled speculation of more significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), with markets increasingly betting on a 50 basis point cut at the Fed’s September meeting. The FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of this larger cut is now close to 83%.

On the European front, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn suggested on Wednesday that the ECB could consider further rate cuts if inflation appears to be slowing. The ECB held rates steady in July, with President Christine Lagarde stating that the decision for September remains open.

Traders are also eyeing the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for July, expected to remain steady at 2.6% year-over-year.

Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran and Israel, are causing market caution. CNN reported late Wednesday that Iran and its allies might be preparing for a retaliatory strike against Israel, potentially influencing risk-sensitive assets like the Euro (EUR).

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EUR/USD Pair Trades

EUR/USD Pair Trades with Mild Losses Amid Mixed Market Sentiment

EUR/USD Pair Trades with Mild Losses Amid Mixed Market Sentiment

The EUR/USD pair is trading with slight losses around the 1.0950 mark during early European trading hours on Tuesday. Improved risk sentiment is providing some support to the US Dollar (USD), limiting the upside potential for the pair. Traders are closely watching the upcoming release of Eurozone Retail Sales data, which is anticipated to ease to 0.1% year-on-year in June.

On Monday, a broad sell-off across financial markets occurred as investors grew increasingly concerned about a potential recession in the US economy. This led to the USD dropping to year-to-date lows near 102.15. However, a shift in global risk sentiment has somewhat eased market fears. Andrzej Szczepaniak, an economist at Nomura, noted, “Markets panicked after the U.S. employment report on Friday.” Currently, traders are pricing in roughly a 60% chance of emergency easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee mentioned on Monday that the Fed is prepared to respond if economic or financial conditions worsen. Any comments from Fed officials hinting at earlier rate cuts could weaken the USD in the near term.

On a positive note, the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) exceeded expectations, rising to 51.4 in July from 48.8 in June, according to data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday.

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China’s Central Bank to Adjust Temporary Repos Based on Market Conditions

China’s Central Bank to Adjust Temporary Repos Based on Market Conditions

China’s Central Bank to Adjust Temporary Repos Based on Market Conditions

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has announced measures to exert greater control over market interest rates by implementing additional open market operations and tightening the range within which short-term rates can fluctuate.

The PBOC will now conduct bond repurchase or reverse repurchase operations in the afternoon, in addition to its traditional morning operations. These afternoon operations will be based on the seven-day reverse repurchase rate, reinforcing it as a key policy benchmark.

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng had previously indicated that the bank would reform its interest rate policy to support growth in China’s economy while maintaining stability in the yuan. The PBOC plans to narrow the interest rate corridor, making market rates more aligned with policy targets, and is considering using a single short-term rate to guide the market.

The additional operations will occur from 4 p.m. to 4:20 p.m. on weekdays as needed. The terms for temporary repos and reverse repos will be overnight, with rates set at 20 basis points below and 50 basis points above the seven-day reverse repo rate, respectively. This change aims to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system and enhance the precision and effectiveness of open market operations.

The adjustment narrows China’s interest rate corridor from about 230 basis points to 70 basis points. This move is expected to reduce interbank rate volatility, making the seven-day reverse repo rate a more prominent benchmark for asset and liability pricing, including deposit and loan rates.

Recently, the PBOC also announced it would borrow government bonds from primary dealers, indicating a potential strategy to sell securities to temper a market rally and prevent longer-term bond yields from falling. The central bank now holds hundreds of billions of yuan worth of securities and will manage their sale based on market conditions.

China’s sovereign bonds have surged this year due to the country’s economic outlook and expectations for interest rate cuts. Increased demand for financial investments over traditional savings has led to warnings from the PBOC about the risks of a bond bubble, particularly in longer-term debt.

The newly established corridor around the seven-day reverse repo rate suggests a move to tighten control over the short end of the yield curve. With the PBOC also poised to influence the longer end through Treasury bond trading, China might be moving towards yield-curve control. Future rate cuts may be executed through adjustments to the seven-day reverse repo rate first.

This comprehensive approach by the PBOC indicates a strategic shift to manage liquidity and market expectations more effectively, aiming to stabilize and guide the economic landscape amid ongoing challenges.

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Pound Holds Steady as Labour Eyes Election Majority

Pound Holds Steady as Labour Eyes Election Majority

Pound Holds Steady as Labour Eyes Election Majority

UK equity-index futures rose, and the pound maintained its recent gains following an exit poll suggesting the Labour Party will secure a clear mandate for greater economic stability.

Contracts on the FTSE 100 Index increased by 0.2%, while the pound remained steady around $1.276. Early results indicated the Labour Party is poised for a landslide victory, with Keir Starmer likely to become prime minister.

Investors had been anticipating that Starmer’s center-left platform would bring an end to policy-induced market disruptions. Despite Labour’s historical support for higher taxes and trade unions, traders are now confident that the memory of the UK’s gilt crisis two years ago will encourage the next government to act prudently.

UK government bonds will begin trading at 8 a.m. in London. The official exit poll predicts Labour will win 410 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, the largest majority since Tony Blair’s 1997 victory. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are expected to be reduced to 131 seats, down from 365 in 2019, which could result in the loss of several prominent party members. The Liberal Democrats are projected to win 61 seats, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is forecasted to gain 13 seats.

The exit poll, based on a comprehensive survey conducted immediately after voters cast their ballots, has historically been more accurate than pre-election opinion polls.

A substantial victory for Labour is expected to support the pound. Before the election, Labour emphasized economic stability in its manifesto and committed to strict spending rules. Rachel Reeves, a former Bank of England staffer poised to become the UK’s finance minister, assured that the administration would not increase three key taxes on wages and goods.

Labour’s promises also included building more houses, creating a publicly-owned energy company, and improving relations with the EU, while ruling out a return to the single market or customs union.

Fiscal stability and better UK-EU relations are expected to positively impact gilts and the pound in the near term, according to strategists at TD Securities. This shift in political landscape suggests a period of stability and confidence in the UK’s economic future.

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Fed Sought More Inflation Data in June Minutes

Fed Sought More Inflation Data in June Minutes

Fed Sought More Inflation Data in June Minutes

At their last policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials were divided on how long to maintain elevated interest rates and were awaiting more evidence that inflation is cooling. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which ended on June 12, revealed that officials did not anticipate it would be appropriate to lower borrowing costs until more data indicated inflation was moving toward their 2% target.

Since last July, the Fed has kept its key policy rate in a target range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in over two decades. During the last meeting, officials reduced the number of projected interest-rate cuts for this year to just one. Four policymakers predicted no cuts for 2024, while eight forecasted two.

Participants at the meeting acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and debated the duration of maintaining a restrictive policy stance. While some officials stressed the need for patience, others highlighted the risk that further weakening in demand could lead to a significant rise in unemployment. Several policymakers were still open to raising interest rates if inflation remained high.

Recent data has shown some progress in cooling inflation, with the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, recording its smallest advance in six months in May. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that more evidence is needed before considering lowering rates.

The minutes also indicated growing caution about the labor market, as the risks to achieving the Fed’s employment and inflation goals have become more balanced. Although the US economy continues to add jobs at a solid pace, the unemployment rate has slightly increased in recent months. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that the labor market is nearing a point where further slowing could result in higher unemployment.

The upcoming jobs report is expected to show that employers added 190,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate holding steady, marking a slowdown from May when payrolls exceeded forecasts.

The minutes also highlighted ongoing debates among officials about the extent to which Fed policy is restraining the economy. Some officials suggested that the continued economic strength could mean the longer-run equilibrium interest rate is higher than previously assessed, implying that the stance of monetary policy and financial conditions might be less restrictive than they appear.

In June, policymakers forecasted that the long-run neutral interest rate, which represents a policy stance that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy, had risen to 2.8%.

 

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Japan's Service Activity Declines

Japan’s Service Activity Declines for First Time in 2 Years, PMI Reveals

Japan’s Service Activity Declines for First Time in 2 Years, PMI Reveals

Japanese service activity contracted in June for the first time in nearly two years as domestic demand cooled, according to a private sector survey released on Wednesday. Despite this contraction, business confidence and hiring indicators remained positive.

The service sector has been a key driver of economic growth in Japan, helping to offset weak manufacturing performance. However, the final au Jibun Bank Service purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.4 in June from 53.8 in May, ending a 21-month streak of expansion, as reported by the S&P Global Market Intelligence survey.

The June PMI reading was weaker than the initial flash estimate of 49.8 and marked the first dip below the 50.0 threshold, which separates expansion from contraction, since August 2022. The decline in new business activity in June suggested a pause in growth rather than an outright drop in demand.

Demand decreased in consumer services, finance and insurance, and real estate and business services, while sectors such as transport and storage, and information and communication saw increases. The weak yen, which has depreciated by over 12% this year, supported overseas demand for Japanese services.

Although employment growth slowed, it remained relatively strong, and business confidence for the next 12 months stayed robust. However, a combination of rising wages, food and fuel prices, and the weaker yen drove up input costs, leading to the fastest inflation rate since August of the previous year.

Companies responded to these increased costs by continuing to pass on price hikes to consumers, with the pace of average prices easing only slightly from the record highs seen in April and May. The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and service activity, fell to 49.7 in June from 52.6 in May, marking the first time the index dropped below 50.0 in seven months.

In summary, while the Japanese service sector saw its first contraction in nearly two years due to cooling domestic demand, the overall economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with ongoing strength in employment and business confidence despite rising costs and inflation pressures.

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Bank of Japan Stance

Japanese Yen Weakens Amid Dovish Bank of Japan Stance

Japanese Yen Weakens Amid Dovish Bank of Japan Stance

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day, largely due to dovish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida on Wednesday. According to Reuters, Uchida stated, “We won’t raise rates when markets are unstable,” highlighting the BoJ’s cautious approach.

Deputy Governor Uchida also indicated that the BoJ’s interest rate policy may be adjusted if market volatility impacts economic forecasts, risk assessments, or projections. Given the recent market instability, he stressed the importance of closely monitoring the economic and price effects of their policies, adding, “We must maintain the current degree of monetary easing for the time being.”

Despite the JPY’s weakness, the USD/JPY pair’s upside may be capped as the US Dollar faces headwinds, with market participants increasingly expecting a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting in September. The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 67.5% probability of a 50-basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed in September, up from 13.2% just a week ago.

Japanese Yen Weakens Following BoJ’s Uchida Remarks

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi commented on Tuesday that “wage increases are expected to extend to part-timers and small businesses by autumn, supported by strong Shunto results and minimum wage hikes.” However, Hayashi did not address current foreign exchange levels.

Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings data for June showed a 4.5% year-on-year increase in average income, exceeding both the previous 2.0% and the expected 2.3% figures. This marks the highest rise since January 1997 and reinforces the possibility of Japan moving towards a higher interest rate environment.

Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve officials have shared their views on the economic outlook. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly expressed confidence on Monday that US inflation is moving towards the Fed’s 2% target. She noted, “Risks to the Fed’s mandates are becoming more balanced,” suggesting a potential openness to rate cuts in upcoming meetings.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also remarked on Monday that the central bank is ready to act if economic or financial conditions deteriorate. He emphasized, “We’re forward-looking about it, and so if conditions collectively start deteriorating on any of those fronts, we’re going to address it,” as reported by Reuters.

The minutes from the BoJ’s June meeting revealed concerns among some members about rising import prices due to the Yen’s recent decline, which could increase inflationary pressures. One member warned that cost-push inflation could elevate underlying inflation if it leads to higher inflation expectations and wage growth.

In its Quarterly Outlook Report released on Thursday, the BoJ noted the potential for wages and inflation to exceed expectations, driven by heightened inflation expectations and a tight labor market.

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Gold Price Trades with Modest Losses

Gold Price Trades with Modest Losses Below $2,400, Downside Potential Appears Limited

Gold Price Trades with Modest Losses Below $2,400, Downside Potential Appears Limited

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to build on the previous day’s rebound from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support around the $2,365-$2,364 region, a one-week low, attracting some intraday selling pressure on Tuesday. The dip is driven by renewed US Dollar (USD) strength, supported by rising US Treasury bond yields and a risk-on sentiment, which has pushed the safe-haven metal below the $2,400 mark.

However, expectations for more substantial interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are likely to cap US bond yields and limit the Greenback’s gains. Additionally, geopolitical tensions from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East may further support Gold prices, keeping the downside limited. Given the lack of significant US economic data releases, caution is warranted before betting on an extended decline from last week’s near all-time highs.

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Gold Price Stabilizes Amid Firm Fed Rate

Gold Price Stabilizes Amid Firm Fed Rate-Cut Bets and Middle East Conflicts

Gold Price Stabilizes Amid Firm Fed Rate-Cut Bets and Middle East Conflicts

Gold (XAU/USD) has recovered to trade above $2,440 after dipping near $2,410 during Monday’s European session. The precious metal faced selling pressure as traders booked profits while it attempted to reclaim its all-time highs above $2,480. Despite this, the overall outlook for gold remains strong, supported by declining US bond yields.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has dropped to 3.67%, fueled by growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Concurrently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar’s value against six major currencies, has fallen to its March low near 102.60.

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, 30-day Federal Funds futures pricing suggests that traders see a 50-basis point (bp) rate cut in September as highly likely. The data also indicates that the Fed is expected to reduce its key borrowing rates by more than 100 bps over the course of this year.

Expectations for larger rate cuts have been driven by a series of weak economic reports from the United States, indicating a potential economic slowdown and raising concerns about the Fed’s ability to achieve a “soft landing”—curbing inflation without triggering a recession.

Deteriorating labor market conditions and a sharp decline in the manufacturing sector are key factors behind the increased expectations for significant rate cuts. The July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report revealed a marked slowdown in labor demand, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to its highest level since November 2021.

New payrolls came in at 114,000, well below the estimates of 175,000 and June’s figure of 179,000. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, surpassing expectations and the previous release of 4.1%. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity, as indicated by the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), contracted more rapidly, falling to 46.8 in July.

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Yen Weakens as Dollar Gains Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

Yen Weakens as Dollar Gains Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

Yen Weakens as Dollar Gains Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

The Japanese Yen (JPY) ended its two-day winning streak on Monday, as the USD/JPY pair recovered its daily losses with the US Dollar (USD) gaining ground amid risk-off sentiment.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its economic assessment for five of Japan’s nine regions in its latest ‘Sakura Report’. The assessment for two regions was raised, while it was lowered for another two regions. The BOJ also noted that wage hikes are spreading among smaller firms in many regions.

Despite the BOJ’s positive regional assessments, the US Dollar’s strength is largely driven by broader market conditions. The recent weaker-than-expected US employment growth data has influenced market sentiment. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June showed job growth that exceeded market expectations, though the pace of growth was slower compared to May. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate increased in June. These factors have led to speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may initiate interest rate cuts sooner rather than later.

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are now pricing in a 70.7% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 64.1% just a week earlier. This dovish sentiment surrounding the Fed has impacted the USD, but the risk-off mood in the broader market has provided support for the greenback.

The market’s current focus is on the potential for the Fed to adjust its monetary policy in response to evolving economic conditions. Traders and investors are closely watching upcoming economic data releases and Fed communications for further signals. This uncertainty contributes to the fluctuating strength of the USD and its impact on currency pairs like USD/JPY.

In summary, the Japanese Yen’s recent weakness and the US Dollar’s gains are influenced by a combination of BOJ’s regional economic assessments and the Fed’s dovish outlook amid mixed economic data. The market’s anticipation of possible Fed rate cuts in the near future adds to the complexity of the current financial landscape. As traders continue to navigate these dynamics, the performance of the USD/JPY pair remains a key focal point.

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Australian Dollar Rises on Hawkish RBA Sentiment

Australian Dollar Rises on Hawkish RBA Sentiment

Australian Dollar Rises on Hawkish RBA Sentiment

The Australian Dollar (AUD) appreciated for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, driven by high inflation and expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will delay potential rate cuts. The June Meeting Minutes from the RBA revealed that the board saw a stronger case for holding rates steady rather than hiking them. They emphasized the importance of remaining vigilant about upside risks to inflation, particularly in light of data suggesting potential increases in May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Additionally, the AUD/USD pair gained support from a weaker US Dollar (USD). The Greenback has been struggling due to softer economic data from the United States, which has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might reduce interest rates in 2024. However, the recovery in US Treasury yields could limit the downside for the US Dollar.

Market participants are closely watching the US employment reports, expected to be released on Friday. These reports are anticipated to show a slowdown in employment growth for June. Specifically, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to increase by 190,000 new jobs, down from the previous month’s 272,000. Additionally, US Average Hourly Earnings are expected to moderate slightly, with projections indicating a decrease to 3.9% year-over-year from the prior 4.1%.

The combined impact of these factors has created a favorable environment for the Australian Dollar. High domestic inflation and the RBA’s cautious approach to rate cuts suggest a stable or potentially stronger AUD in the near term. Meanwhile, the weakening USD, influenced by the possibility of future Fed rate cuts and mixed economic data, has further bolstered the AUD/USD pair.

As traders await the detailed US employment data, the market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic for the Australian Dollar. The interplay between the RBA’s policy stance and the US economic outlook will continue to be key drivers for the currency pair. Investors will be particularly attentive to any shifts in economic indicators or central bank communications that could influence future rate decisions and currency movements.

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Gold Price Hits Multi-Day High

Gold Price Hits Multi-Day High, Awaits FOMC Minutes for Direction

Gold Price Hits Multi-Day High, Awaits FOMC Minutes for Direction

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are seeing renewed buying interest during the Asian session on Wednesday, building on the previous day’s rebound from the $2,319-$2,318 support zone. Currently, the precious metal is positioned near the top end of its short-term trading range, which has held steady over the past week. Traders are watching for a sustained move beyond the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance before making further bullish bets.

Recent dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell have reaffirmed expectations that the US central bank might start cutting interest rates at its September meeting. This prospect, combined with concerns over global economic growth, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainty in both the US and Europe, has provided support for gold prices.

Despite these favorable conditions, the upside for gold may be constrained as traders remain cautious, awaiting clearer signals regarding the Fed’s future policy decisions. The focus is now on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, scheduled for later in the US session. These minutes are expected to significantly impact the US Dollar (USD) and, by extension, gold prices.

In the interim, traders will also monitor key US economic data, including the ADP report on private-sector employment and the ISM Services PMI. These reports could offer additional insights into the health of the US economy and influence market sentiment.

Given the current fundamental backdrop, the path of least resistance for XAU/USD appears to be upward. Any significant corrective decline is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity. The market’s attention will remain fixed on the FOMC minutes for further direction, as they will provide crucial information on the Fed’s stance and potential actions.

In summary, gold prices are poised for potential gains, supported by dovish Fed expectations and global uncertainties. However, traders are likely to tread carefully, awaiting the FOMC minutes and key US economic data for more definitive cues. This cautious approach underscores the delicate balance between optimism for rate cuts and the need for concrete policy guidance.

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Australian Dollar Drops on Weak Manufacturing PMI

Australian Dollar Drops on Weak Manufacturing PMI

Australian Dollar Drops on Weak Manufacturing PMI

The Australian Dollar (AUD) may find some relief as the Caixin Manufacturing PMI from China increased to 51.8 in June, surpassing expectations of a decline to 51.2 from May’s 51.7. This unexpected boost in Chinese manufacturing activity is significant for Australia, given the close trade relationship between the two countries. Positive economic changes in China can have a favorable impact on the Australian market, potentially supporting the AUD.

Despite this positive news from China, the AUD faced pressure due to disappointing domestic data. Australia’s June manufacturing PMI contracted at its fastest rate since May 2020, indicating a significant slowdown in the sector. This contraction in manufacturing activity has dampened investor sentiment towards the AUD. Market participants are now eagerly awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) upcoming policy meeting minutes on Tuesday, hoping for insights into the central bank’s future monetary policy direction. Any indications of policy adjustments or economic outlook from the RBA could influence the AUD’s movement.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) has been depreciating due to rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut by 25 basis points in December has increased to nearly 32.0%, up from 28.7% just a week earlier. This shift in expectations is driven by recent economic data suggesting a potential easing of monetary policy by the Fed to support economic growth. The prospect of lower interest rates in the US has weakened the USD, providing some support to the AUD.

In summary, the AUD’s performance is currently influenced by a mix of international and domestic factors. While positive Chinese economic data provides some support, the AUD is under pressure from weak domestic manufacturing data. The upcoming RBA policy meeting minutes will be closely watched for any signals on future monetary policy, which could impact the AUD. Additionally, the USD’s depreciation due to expectations of Fed rate cuts adds another layer of complexity to the AUD’s outlook. Traders will need to monitor these developments closely to navigate the fluctuating market conditions.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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