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USD/JPY Bulls Cautious

USD/JPY Bulls Cautious Near 159.00, Highest Since April Amid Intervention Fears

USD/JPY Bulls Cautious Near 159.00, Highest Since April Amid Intervention Fears

The USD/JPY pair is trading within a narrow range during the Asian session on Friday, consolidating recent gains near the 159.00 mark, the highest level since late April. The pair’s fundamental backdrop supports prospects for further appreciation, although fears of intervention might limit the upside.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) reluctance to commit to near-term interest rate hikes. Data released earlier on Friday showed that Japan’s core-core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, slowed for the ninth consecutive month, easing to a 2.1% yearly rate from 2.4%. This data increases uncertainty about whether the BoJ will raise interest rates in July or later in the year. Additionally, the prevailing bullish sentiment in global equity markets reduces demand for the safe-haven JPY, providing a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) remains strong near the top end of its weekly trading range following a sharp rise in US Treasury bond yields overnight. This has further widened the US-Japan rate differential, putting additional pressure on the JPY and supporting the USD/JPY pair. However, investors remain cautious amid speculations that Japanese authorities might intervene to support the domestic currency. Moreover, increasing bets on an imminent start to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cutting cycle in September could limit further gains for the Greenback and the USD/JPY pair.

Despite these concerns, the USD/JPY pair is on track to end in positive territory for the second consecutive week. Investors are now looking forward to the release of global flash PMI prints for additional market direction. The upcoming US Existing Home Sales data, along with US bond yields and broader market risk sentiment, are also expected to provide short-term trading opportunities on the last day of the week.

Overall, while the USD/JPY pair has seen recent gains and stands at a significant level, the potential for intervention by Japanese authorities and the uncertain path of the BoJ’s monetary policy add layers of complexity to its future movements. Traders will need to stay vigilant to both Japanese economic indicators and broader market trends to navigate the near-term landscape effectively.

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GBP/USD Holds Steady at 1.2700, Awaits UK CPI Data

GBP/USD Holds Steady at 1.2700, Awaits UK CPI Data

GBP/USD Holds Steady at 1.2700, Awaits UK CPI Data

The GBP/USD pair is struggling to gain any significant traction on Wednesday, trading within a narrow range around the 1.2700 mark during the Asian session. Despite this, spot prices are holding above the one-month low reached last Friday, as traders eagerly anticipate the release of the latest UK consumer inflation figures before committing to any substantial moves.

The upcoming UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to show a slight increase, with monthly inflation ticking up to 0.4% in May from 0.3% in April. However, the annual inflation rate is projected to decelerate to 3.5% from the previous 3.9%. This data will be crucial in shaping market expectations for the British Pound (GBP) and could provide the necessary impetus for the GBP/USD pair to break out of its current trading range.

In addition to the inflation data, market participants are also focusing on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday. The decisions and guidance provided by the BoE will play a significant role in determining the near-term trajectory of the GBP/USD pair. Any indications of future rate hikes or a shift in the bank’s policy stance could lead to increased volatility and directional movement in the currency pair.

On the other side of the Atlantic, subdued price action in the US Dollar (USD) is also influencing the GBP/USD pair. Tuesday’s US Retail Sales report came in softer than expected, signaling potential fatigue among American consumers. This has reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may start cutting interest rates as early as September. Consequently, US Treasury bond yields have declined, undermining the USD and providing a supportive backdrop for the GBP/USD pair.

Despite these supportive factors, the GBP/USD pair has yet to attract significant follow-through buying. This cautious market sentiment is likely due to the looming uncertainty surrounding the key economic data and central bank meetings. Traders appear hesitant to position themselves aggressively before gaining more clarity from the upcoming UK CPI release and BoE meeting.

In summary, while the GBP/USD pair holds steady above its recent lows and is supported by a softer USD and positive expectations from the UK inflation data, the lack of decisive movement suggests that market participants are awaiting further confirmation from key economic events. The UK CPI data and the BoE’s policy decisions will be critical in providing direction for the GBP/USD pair in the coming days. Until then, the pair is likely to remain range-bound, oscillating around the 1.2700 level.

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EUR/USD Consolidates Near 1.0700

EUR/USD Consolidates Near 1.0700 After Recent Low

EUR/USD Consolidates Near 1.0700 After Recent Low

The EUR/USD pair starts the week on a subdued note, consolidating its recent losses to the lowest level since early May, around the 1.0670-1.0665 region touched on Friday. Currently trading around the 1.0700 mark, the pair appears vulnerable to further declines.

Concerns over a potential snap election in France, which could worsen the fiscal situation in the Eurozone’s second-largest economy, continue to weigh on the shared currency. The right-wing National Front party leads in the polls, and French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned on Friday of a financial crisis risk if either the far right or left won due to their heavy spending plans. This, coupled with a modest uptick in the US Dollar (USD), supports a near-term negative outlook for the EUR/USD pair.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish surprise at the end of the June policy meeting, indicating a median projection of just one rate cut in 2024, supports elevated US Treasury bond yields. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East bolster the safe-haven Greenback, suggesting a downward trend for the EUR/USD pair. However, signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US keep the door open for a potential interest rate cut by the Fed in September.

This outlook was reinforced by US data released on Friday, showing an unexpected drop in import prices in May, further boosting the domestic inflation outlook. Additionally, a survey by the University of Michigan revealed a sharp deterioration in US consumer sentiment in June, which might prevent USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and help limit losses for the EUR/USD pair. With no relevant US economic data due for release on Monday, the pair remains at the mercy of the USD.

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EUR/USD Declines for Third Consecutive Day

EUR/USD Declines for Third Consecutive Day Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

EUR/USD Declines for Third Consecutive Day Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

The EUR/USD experienced its third consecutive day of losses on Tuesday as market sentiment soured following the European Union parliamentary elections. The elections resulted in a significant shift towards center-right and far-right parties, with European voters showing strong support for these groups. Meanwhile, left-leaning political parties suffered steep losses, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction among EU citizens regarding economic fragility and the current policy strategies of the established European ruling parties.

This political upheaval in Europe has added to the market’s uncertainty. Investors are now anxiously awaiting key economic updates from the United States. On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision are due to be released. These announcements are expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment, which is currently quite volatile.

The US CPI inflation data is anticipated to show a cooling in April, with expectations of a 0.1% month-over-month increase compared to the previous month’s 0.3%. Annualized Core CPI inflation is also expected to tick down slightly to 3.5% year-over-year, from the previous 3.6%. These figures are critical as they will provide insight into the inflationary pressures facing the US economy and inform the Fed’s future policy decisions.

In addition to the CPI data, the Fed’s latest rate call and Monetary Policy Statement are set to draw significant attention. Although the Fed is broadly expected to hold interest rates steady this week, investors are particularly interested in updates to the Fed’s “dot plot” – a summary of interest rate expectations going forward. There is growing concern that the dot plot may shift, reflecting fewer or no rate cuts in 2024, which could have substantial implications for market dynamics.

The possibility of a significant adjustment in the Fed’s rate expectations has added to the market’s anxiety. Investors are increasingly worried that the Fed might signal a more hawkish stance, potentially indicating that the anticipated rate cuts in 2024 might not materialize. This scenario could further pressure the EUR/USD, which has already been affected by the recent political shifts in Europe and ongoing economic uncertainties.

As the market prepares for these pivotal announcements, the EUR/USD will likely remain under scrutiny. The combination of political instability in the EU and critical economic updates from the US sets the stage for continued volatility. Investors will be closely monitoring the outcomes of Wednesday’s data releases and the Fed’s communications for any indications of future policy directions.

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GBP/USD Defensive Below

GBP/USD Defensive Below 1.2750 Amid Stronger USD

GBP/USD Defensive Below 1.2750 Amid Stronger USD

During the early Asian trading hours on Monday, the GBP/USD pair recovered some of its lost ground, hovering around 1.2725. However, the upside for GBP/USD might be limited due to lower expectations of US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year, following stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Investors are now turning their attention to the UK employment data for May, which is scheduled for release on Tuesday. Additionally, key events on the US economic calendar this week include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which will be closely watched by the market.

On Friday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed a substantial increase of 272,000 jobs in May, up from a 165,000 rise in April and significantly above the market consensus of 185,000. Despite this strong job growth, the Unemployment Rate edged up to 4.0% in May from 3.9% in April. Average Hourly Earnings also showed an impressive year-over-year increase of 4.1% in May, revised up from 3.9% in April, and surpassing the estimated 3.9%. These figures, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, highlight the robustness of the US labor market.

The solid employment data has led to a reassessment of future monetary policy moves by the Federal Reserve. The likelihood of a rate cut before September has diminished, with futures traders seeing almost no chance of such a move, according to data from CME Group. This higher-for-longer rate outlook is expected to provide support for the US Dollar (USD) in the near term.In contrast, the focus in the UK will be on the employment data set to be released on Tuesday. This includes the Claimant Count Change, Employment Change, and Average Earnings data. Any indication of increased layoffs could prompt expectations of early rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE), which would likely weaken the Pound Sterling (GBP).

The market’s attention is also on the upcoming US CPI data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The CPI data will offer insights into the inflationary pressures in the US economy, while the Fed’s decision will provide guidance on the future path of interest rates. These events are crucial for the USD’s performance and, by extension, the GBP/USD pair’s movement.Overall, while the GBP/USD pair has shown some recovery, its upside potential may be constrained by the current economic data and central bank policies. Investors will be closely monitoring the UK employment report and the US CPI and Fed announcements for further direction.

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USD/CAD Holds Above Mid-1.3600s Ahead of US NFP

USD/CAD Holds Above Mid-1.3600s Ahead of US NFP

USD/CAD Holds Above Mid-1.3600s Ahead of US NFP

The USD/CAD pair is showing resilience below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), but it seems to struggle to attract any significant buyers during the Asian session on Friday. Currently, spot prices trade with a mild positive bias, hovering around the 1.3670 area. Traders are keenly awaiting the release of the US monthly employment details before making fresh directional bets.

The much-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to reveal that the US economy added 185,000 jobs in May, up from 175,000 in the previous month. Additionally, the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 3.9%. This data, along with Average Hourly Earnings, will play a crucial role in shaping the inflation outlook and the Federal Reserve’s future policy decisions. Consequently, this will influence the demand for the US Dollar (USD) and provide fresh directional impetus to the USD/CAD pair.

As the market heads into this key data risk, participants have been pricing in a higher probability that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September due to signs of a slowdown in the US economy. This expectation has kept US Treasury bond yields and the USD under pressure. Moreover, this week’s rebound in Crude Oil prices has supported the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD), further capping the USD/CAD pair’s upside.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) recently lowered its benchmark rate for the first time in four years, from a more than two-decade high, expressing concerns about slowing economic growth. The central bank also acknowledged improvements in underlying inflation, fueling speculations about another rate cut next month. This development could limit the Canadian Dollar’s gains and act as a supportive factor for the USD/CAD pair.

Given the mixed fundamental backdrop, aggressive traders should exercise caution, as the USD/CAD pair is more likely to continue its range-bound price action on the last trading day of the week. Despite this, spot prices remain on track to register modest weekly gains, although they stay within a familiar range held since early May.

In summary, the USD/CAD pair remains resilient below the 200-hour SMA but struggles to attract substantial buyers ahead of the US NFP report. The anticipated employment data will significantly influence USD demand and the pair’s direction. While market participants expect a Fed rate cut in September, supporting the CAD, the BoC’s recent rate cut and potential for another could cap the CAD’s upside, providing a mixed outlook for the USD/CAD pair. As such, the pair is likely to maintain its range-bound movement, with modest gains expected for the week.

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Japanese Yen Weakens as Investors Await Key US Data

Japanese Yen Weakens as Investors Await Key US Data

Japanese Yen Weakens as Investors Await Key US Data

On Wednesday, the Japanese Yen (JPY) edged lower as investors exercised caution ahead of crucial US economic data releases, including the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI reports. Market participants are also looking ahead to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, set to be released on Friday, which could further influence the currency markets.

The JPY is under pressure due to the interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, which favors the US Dollar (USD) over the Yen. The USD/JPY pair is buoyed by this rate disparity, which makes the USD more attractive to investors. However, the potential for significant gains in the USD/JPY pair is tempered by recent positive economic data from Japan.

On Wednesday, the Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI was revised upwards to 53.8 in May, from an initial reading of 53.6. Although this revision indicates an improvement, it still falls short of April’s eight-month peak of 54.3, suggesting the slowest growth in the Japanese service sector since February. 

Additionally, Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings surged by 2.1% year-on-year in April, surpassing forecasts of a 1.7% increase and marking the highest growth rate since June of the previous year. These stronger-than-expected figures offer some support to the JPY and could limit the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six major currencies, has edged higher, bolstered by rising US Treasury yields. However, the weaker US Manufacturing PMI for May has sparked speculation about a potential rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This softer-than-expected manufacturing data has led traders to price in nearly 64.9% odds of a Fed rate cut of at least 25 basis points by September, a notable increase from 46.3% just a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The upcoming US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI reports are expected to provide further insights into the health of the US economy. Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce the USD’s strength and put additional pressure on the JPY. Conversely, weaker data could heighten expectations for a Fed rate cut, potentially providing some relief to the Yen.

In conclusion, while the Japanese Yen is facing downward pressure due to the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, recent positive economic data from Japan and the potential for a Fed rate cut could influence the USD/JPY pair’s movements in the coming days. Investors will be closely monitoring the upcoming US economic data releases and the Nonfarm Payrolls report for further direction.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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EUR/USD Drops Below 1.0500 Amid French Government Crisis

The EUR/USD pair slipped to approximately 1.0490 during the early European session on Tuesday as the Euro (EUR) weakened against the US Dollar. The decline is driven by growing concerns over political instability in France, the Eurozone’s second-largest economy.

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s controversial decision to push a social security bill without a parliamentary vote has triggered a backlash from opposition parties. These parties have announced plans to file a no-confidence motion against Barnier, potentially leading to the collapse of the French government this week.

The rising political uncertainty has added selling pressure on the Euro. Additionally, the yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds increased by 7.6 basis points (bps) to 87.3 bps, nearing last week’s high of 90 bps—the highest since 2012. Kyle Chapman, an FX market analyst at Ballinger Group, commented, “Crashing political sentiment in France and another strong US activity report have given the Euro a rough start to December.”

On the US front, manufacturing data released on Monday showed notable improvement in November, reflecting the resilience of the US economy and strengthening the US Dollar. Market participants are now focused on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could offer clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move ahead of its December 18 meeting. While the Fed remains data-dependent, the NFP report will play a critical role in shaping expectations for potential rate cuts.

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EUR/USD Slips Below 1.0550 Amid Awaited ECB Lagarde Speech and US PMI Data

EUR/USD Slips Below 1.0550 Amid Awaited ECB Lagarde Speech and US PMI Data

EUR/USD Slips Below 1.0550 Amid Awaited ECB Lagarde Speech and US PMI Data

The EUR/USD pair extended its decline to around 1.0530 during early Asian trading on Monday, pressured by a strengthening US Dollar (USD). Traders are focusing on key events scheduled for later in the day, including European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech and the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

In the Eurozone, November’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose to 2.3% year-over-year, up from October’s 2.0%, aligning with market expectations and surpassing the ECB’s 2.0% target. Core HICP also edged higher, rising to 2.8% YoY from 2.7% in the prior reading, meeting forecasts.

Markets are pricing in a 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut by the ECB in December, marking the central bank’s fourth reduction of the year. However, expectations for a larger 50 bps cut have waned, supported by marginal improvements in the Eurozone’s subdued growth outlook. Anticipation of rate cuts continues to weigh on the Euro (EUR).

Meanwhile, the US Dollar finds support from the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently emphasized the lack of urgency to lower interest rates, citing the economy’s resilience. “The strength we are seeing in the economy allows us to make decisions carefully,” Powell stated. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently estimate a 65.4% probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in December.

The diverging monetary policy outlooks between the ECB and the Fed are likely to drive further volatility in the EUR/USD pair as traders assess upcoming data and central bank signals.

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USD/CHF Nears 0.8800 Ahead of Swiss Q3 GDP Data

USD/CHF Slips Toward 0.8800 as Swiss Q3 GDP Report Awaits

USD/CHF Slips Toward 0.8800 as Swiss Q3 GDP Report Awaits

The USD/CHF pair is trading lower around 0.8815 in early European trading on Friday, pressured by broad-based weakness in the US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on Switzerland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the third quarter (Q3), set to be released later in the day.

The USD’s decline comes as traders lock in profits ahead of the extended Thanksgiving weekend. Despite the current dip, the USD may find support in the near term from strong US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious stance. Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, released earlier this week, indicated that while rate cuts are on the horizon, they will likely proceed gradually as inflation cools and the labor market remains resilient.

Switzerland’s Q3 GDP data will be the primary focus on Friday. The Swiss economy is projected to grow by 0.4% quarter-over-quarter, a slowdown from the 0.7% growth recorded in Q2. On an annual basis, growth is expected to hold steady at 1.8%. A lower-than-anticipated GDP figure could weaken the Swiss Franc (CHF), providing a potential boost to the USD/CHF pair.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain in the spotlight. On Thursday, Russia launched its second significant attack this month on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leading to widespread power outages. An escalation in the conflict could increase demand for safe-haven currencies like the CHF, potentially limiting the downside for the pair.

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EUR/GBP Steady Below 0.8350 Ahead of German CPI Data

EUR/GBP Steady Below 0.8350 Ahead of German CPI Data

EUR/GBP Steady Below 0.8350 Ahead of German CPI Data

The EUR/GBP pair remains stable near 0.8330 during Thursday’s early European trading session. A cautious outlook and diminishing expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in December lend support to the Pound Sterling (GBP), exerting slight downward pressure on the cross.

BoE officials continue to approach rate cuts cautiously. Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli emphasized concerns about persistent services inflation in the UK, which remains well above pre-Covid levels and the 2% inflation target. Lombardelli noted the need for clearer signs of easing price pressures before endorsing further rate cuts.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers voice worries about the Eurozone’s economic outlook. Increasing speculation about aggressive ECB rate cuts to support the struggling regional economy could weigh on the Euro (EUR) relative to the GBP in the near term.

Market participants now await Germany’s preliminary November Consumer Price Index (CPI), set to release on Thursday. The annual CPI is anticipated to rise to 2.2% from October’s 2.0%. A higher-than-expected reading could bolster the Euro, offering potential support for the EUR/GBP pair.

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GBP/USD Climbs Above 1.2550 Ahead of Key US Core PCE Inflation Data

GBP/USD Rises Above 1.2550 Ahead of US Core PCE Inflation Data

GBP/USD Rises Above 1.2550 Ahead of US Core PCE Inflation Data

The GBP/USD pair strengthens, trading near 1.2570 during Wednesday’s early European session. Despite market jitters stemming from US tariff announcements by President-elect Donald Trump, the Pound Sterling (GBP) consolidates gains. Investors are now eyeing the release of the US October Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for fresh direction.

On Tuesday, Trump pledged tariffs on all imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, which bolstered the US Dollar (USD) against the GBP in the prior session. However, the USD’s momentum has stalled, with traders awaiting the Core PCE inflation data to gauge its implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of major currencies, hovers near the lower end of its weekly range around 106.85.

Despite some pressure, the Greenback’s downside appears limited due to relatively hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Minutes from the November FOMC meeting revealed confidence in easing inflation and a robust labor market, supporting the possibility of further interest rate cuts at a measured pace. Fed policymakers emphasized that while additional rate reductions are likely, the timing and scale remain uncertain.

On the UK front, most Bank of England (BoE) officials favor a gradual approach to policy easing. BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli reiterated on Tuesday that more evidence of cooling inflation is needed before she supports another rate cut. This cautious stance has reduced expectations of an imminent rate reduction, offering near-term support for the Pound.

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EUR/USD Faces Resistance Around 1.0500 After Recovery from Two-Year Lows

EUR/USD Faces Resistance Around 1.0500 After Recovery from Two-Year Lows

EUR/USD Faces Resistance Around 1.0500 After Recovery from Two-Year Lows

The EUR/USD pair has rebounded from its two-year low of 1.0332 recorded last Friday, trading near 1.0480 during Monday’s Asian session. This recovery is largely attributed to a correction in the US Dollar (USD), even as strong preliminary S&P Global US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data continues to support the greenback.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, has softened to around 107.00 after hitting a two-year high of 108.07 on Friday. However, the downside for the USD remains limited, bolstered by robust economic data that reinforces expectations the Federal Reserve (Fed) may slow the pace of rate cuts.

In November, the S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 55.3, reflecting the strongest growth in private sector activity since April 2022. The Services PMI climbed to 57.0, significantly exceeding market expectations of 55.2, marking the fastest expansion in the sector since March 2022. Similarly, the Manufacturing PMI edged up to 48.8 from 48.5 in October, aligning with forecasts.

Conversely, the Euro faces pressure after disappointing Eurozone PMI figures revealed ongoing weakness in the region’s business activity. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI dropped sharply to 48.1 in November, down from 50.0 in October and well below expectations. This reflects a contraction in the services sector for the first time in ten months, alongside a continued slump in manufacturing.

Adding to the Eurozone’s challenges, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane warned last Thursday about the potential economic fallout from global trade fragmentation, cautioning that “trade fragmentation entails sizeable output losses.”

Following the weaker Eurozone PMI data, the probability of a significant ECB rate cut has increased. Market expectations for a 50-basis-point reduction in the Deposit Facility Rate to 2.5% have surged to over 50%, compared to less than 20% before the data release.

This divergence in economic momentum between the US and the Eurozone continues to weigh on the Euro, as traders monitor upcoming data and central bank policy cues for further direction.

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USD/CHF Slips Near 0.8850 Ahead of Key US PMI Data

USD/CHF Slips Near 0.8850 Ahead of Key US PMI Data

USD/CHF Slips Near 0.8850 Ahead of Key US PMI Data

The USD/CHF pair is trading with modest losses around 0.8860 during early European hours on Friday. Concerns about a potential escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have bolstered safe-haven demand, strengthening the Swiss Franc (CHF) against the US Dollar (USD). Market participants now await the release of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for further direction.

Geopolitical tensions remain in focus after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Thursday that Russia conducted a strike using a “ballistic missile with a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead” targeting the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, according to CNN. Putin also issued warnings to Western nations, stating that Moscow could target military facilities in any country supporting Ukraine with weapons. Escalating risks in the region could further enhance the appeal of the safe-haven CHF in the short term.

Meanwhile, expectations of a less aggressive easing path by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) are providing some support for the USD. On Thursday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reaffirmed his backing for additional rate cuts while signaling a cautious approach. Goolsbee noted that inflation has eased significantly over the past year and is steadily moving toward the Fed’s 2% target.

The interplay between geopolitical developments and monetary policy expectations will likely guide the USD/CHF pair’s movement in the coming sessions.

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USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, keeping the USD/JPY pair firm around the 147.00 mark during the Asian session. A stronger US Dollar and persistent concerns over rising trade tensions are weighing heavily on the Yen, as markets brace for the impact of US tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1. 

Former US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese imports, coupled with the threat of retaliatory action, has sparked renewed fears over Japan’s economic resilience. The country’s Q1 GDP contracted, real wages in May dropped at their steepest pace in nearly two years, and political uncertainty is rising ahead of the July 20 House of Councillors election. Recent polls suggest the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may struggle to retain its majority, further dampening investor confidence. 

These developments have led traders to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. The combination of domestic headwinds and external pressure is weakening the JPY, while the US Dollar continues to gain on expectations that rising tariffs will stoke inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. 

The Fed’s June decision to hold interest rates steady, along with a strong US jobs report, has reinforced the belief that rate cuts may be delayed until at least October. The FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, will be closely watched for insights into the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets currently anticipate up to 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end. 

Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds 

Technically, USD/JPY’s break and close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) — for the first time since February — signals potential for further gains. Positive momentum on the daily chart supports a move toward the 147.60–147.65 resistance area, with the 148.00 handle, a key June high, in sight. 

On the downside, immediate support lies near 146.50, with the 100-day SMA just below 146.00 acting as a critical pivot. A decisive break below this level could shift momentum in favor of bears, opening room for deeper losses. 

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NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5700 on weaker US PMI data

During the early Asian session on Thursday, the NZD/USD pair was trading slightly higher at 0.5690. The Greenback falls against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as US economic data disappoints. Investors will keenly monitor developments in the rekindled trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. 

The weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) could weigh on the Greenback and generate a tailwind for the pair. The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3.

On the other hand, New Zealand’s fourth-quarter employment report will put the RBNZ on pace to decrease the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% this month. Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday that the country’s unemployment rate increased to 5.1% in Q4, up from 4.8% the previous quarter. This result was a four-year high and exceeded the 25-year average of 4.8%. Rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may decrease interest rates may further impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

“In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% at the February 19 meeting and the policy rate to through around 3.00% over the next 12 months. Bottom line: NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD,” noted Société Générale’s FX analysts. 

On Tuesday, the finance ministry in China unveiled a package of tariffs on various US products such as crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos in a sharp response to an announcement made by US President Donald Trump imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Further, China served notice to several companies including Google for potential sanctions in response to Trump’s tariffs. Any sign of uncertainty or a rising trade war tension may see the China-proxy Kiwi being dragged lower, as China remains one of the major trading partners to New Zealand.

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JPY Recovers Losses vs. USD, Bullish Outlook Intact

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses Against USD; Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

The Japanese yen (JPY) cut some of its intraday losses against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, bringing the USD/JPY pair back below the mid-155.00s during the early European session. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions showed conversations about the possibility of further hikes in interest rates. Furthermore, Tokyo’s core inflation increased at the quickest annual rate in nearly a year, raising expectations of further policy tightening by the BoJ, which supports the JPY.

Beyond monetary policy, narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economies, including the US, alongside a broader risk-off sentiment, provide additional support to the safe-haven JPY. However, concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s newly announced trade tariffs limit the yen’s upside. Meanwhile, the USD remains broadly strong, allowing the USD/JPY pair to maintain its positive momentum for a second consecutive day, ahead of the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI report.

Yen Gains Traction Amid BoJ Rate Hike Bets and Trade War Fears

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, effective Tuesday.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, and China’s foreign ministry all replied quickly, indicating probable retaliation. The US Dollar continues to climb, approaching a two-year high last hit in January, supporting the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

The Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions, released on Monday, showed that policymakers are thinking about additional rate hikes, though this has failed to appreciably lift the JPY.

Board members of the Bank of Japan stressed the need of continuing to raise interest rates if economic conditions and inflation remain stable.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the government is closely monitoring the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the yen amid concerns over potential economic fallout.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reiterated Japan’s commitment to achieving the BoJ’s 2% inflation target while implementing measures to offset rising living costs.

The US-Japan yield spread remains near a multi-week low, which, coupled with risk aversion, could help stabilize the yen in the near term.

Investors now turn their focus to key US economic data, starting with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Near 156.25; Bears in Control Below This Level

From a technical standpoint, last week’s strong rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally and the subsequent upside move favor bullish traders. However, additional gains beyond 156.00 may encounter resistance near last week’s swing high at 156.25. A sustained break above this level could spark a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards:

  • 156.70-156.75 resistance
  • 157.00 psychological mark
  • 157.60 horizontal barrier
  • Potential extension towards 158.00, with an ultimate target at the 158.85-158.90 multi-month high from January 10

Conversely, on the downside:-

  • 155.00 serves as immediate support
  • Below this, watch for key levels at 154.55-154.50 and 154.00
  • A break below the 153.70 January low could accelerate the decline towards 153.30 and eventually 153.00

While the JPY is exhibiting some resilience, the overall trend remains unpredictable, with market participants intently watching economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

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Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rise, Fed Decision Looms

Australian Dollar Slides Amid Rising Odds of RBA Rate Cuts, Fed Decision in Focus

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak for a third consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD), weighed down by softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, matching the previous quarter but missing the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI eased to 2.4% from 2.8% in Q3, below the market forecast of 2.5%. Despite December’s monthly CPI ticking up to 2.5% YoY, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2%-3% target range. Meanwhile, the RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI slowed to 3.2% YoY, its weakest pace in three years, slightly under the anticipated 3.3%.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed confidence that “the worst of the inflation challenge is behind us” and that a “soft landing” is increasingly likely. The cooling inflation strengthens the case for an RBA rate cut in February. The central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing the need for inflation to “sustainably” return to target before considering a rate reduction.

AUD Pressured by Risk Aversion, Trump’s Tariff Threats

The AUD faces additional headwinds from risk-off sentiment following tariff threats by former US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of key commodities, including computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to boost US manufacturing.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm around 108.00 as traders turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, indicate near-certainty that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for guidance on future policy shifts.

Concerns over the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies add another layer of uncertainty. US Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino noted, “A number of White House proposals appear inflationary, which could keep the Fed in check.” Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed universal tariffs on US imports starting at 2.5%, with Trump reportedly favoring even higher rates.

China’s Economic Slowdown Adds Pressure on AUD

The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to China’s economic struggles. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1, missing expectations, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.2 from 52.2. As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s weak data weighs heavily on the AUD.

Despite China’s recent stimulus measures, including a $7.25 billion investment in index products and long-term stock investments, concerns persist. Industrial profits fell 3.3% YoY in 2024, marking a third consecutive year of contraction, driven by weak demand, deflationary pressures, and a prolonged property sector slump.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Turns Bearish Below 0.6250

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6230 on Wednesday after breaking below the ascending channel on the daily chart, signaling a shift toward a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, reinforcing downside momentum.

A decisive break below key support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel strengthens the bearish outlook, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward 0.6131—its lowest level since April 2020. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6256. A rebound above this level could reintroduce a bullish bias, with the next upside target near 0.6360.

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US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

The US dollar strengthened significantly against all major currencies after President Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary reignited concerns about potential tariffs, raising fears that trade policies may return to the forefront. Risk-sensitive currencies, particularly those tied to China, saw sharp declines, while the euro weakened amid speculation that the European Union could soon face tariff pressures. Simultaneously, the Japanese yen took a hit as traders hedged against potential US inflation spikes and rising Treasury yields.

This market turbulence followed a Financial Times report indicating that Scott Bessent, the newly appointed Treasury Department official, supports a phased approach to implementing universal tariffs on US imports. The initial proposal suggests starting with a 2.5% tariff rate. However, President Trump hinted at a much broader scope, potentially targeting a range of imports from steel to semiconductor chips and suggesting higher tariff rates over time.

The administration’s “moderate” proposal involves a gradual increase in tariffs, reaching 20% over eight months in increments of 2.5% per month. This timeline has triggered speculation about more extreme scenarios and raised questions about the global trade concessions needed to halt these measures. Bessent’s approach, which allows businesses time to adjust, could also spark a rush of imports and exports to avoid higher future costs.

Amid these developments, financial markets are grappling with the potential outcomes. Traders are assessing whether the proposed tariff measures are fully priced in and evaluating the likelihood of de-escalation through negotiation.

On the positive side, any concessions or agreements that delay or reduce tariffs could stabilize markets. However, the risks of escalating tariffs, particularly if negotiations fail, remain a significant concern. Higher tariffs could disrupt global trade and have far-reaching implications for currency valuations.

While we initially favored long positions on the dollar, the unfolding tariff narrative has introduced significant uncertainty. Staying prepared for sudden shifts in policy and market dynamics is now crucial as the situation continues to evolve.

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Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) ended its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the AUD/USD pair trading flat following the release of mixed Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. As a close trade partner, Australia’s economy is heavily influenced by China’s economic performance.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, down from 50.1 in December, missing market expectations. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 from the previous month’s 52.2. These weaker-than-expected figures suggest a slowdown in China’s economic recovery, weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.

Despite fresh stimulus measures from China aimed at revitalizing its equity markets, the AUD struggled to gain momentum. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a second round of long-term stock investment pilot programs valued at 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). However, these measures have done little to alleviate investor concerns about China’s economic challenges.

Risk Aversion Rises Amid Trump’s Trade Tariff Push

Broader market sentiment took a hit as reports emerged that US President Donald Trump’s advisers are pushing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February 1, bypassing negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s willingness to move swiftly on tariffs follows similar actions taken against Colombia, raising fears of escalating trade tensions and dampening demand for riskier assets like the Australian Dollar.

Adding to the negative outlook, China’s Industrial Profits declined by 3.3% year-over-year in 2024 to CNY 7,431.05 billion, marking the third consecutive year of contraction. This downturn highlights ongoing economic headwinds, including weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property sector.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Bullish Setup

The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6290 on Monday, showing signs of upward momentum within an ascending channel on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 50, reflecting mild optimism in the market.

On the upside, the pair could retest the psychological resistance level at 0.6300, with the next target near the channel’s upper boundary around 0.6350.

Support levels are found at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6265, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6254. A stronger support lies near the channel’s lower boundary around 0.6240, which could act as a safety net in case of a downside correction.

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NZD/USD Struggles

NZD/USD Struggles Below 0.5700 Amid Trump’s Tariff Plans and Dovish RBNZ Expectations

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading near 0.5675 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces headwinds due to uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China and the dovish outlook of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicated a continued decline in underlying inflation, strengthening expectations of additional rate cuts by the RBNZ. Swap markets now estimate a nearly 90% chance of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut on February 19, building on the two cuts already implemented in this cycle. The RBNZ is projected to deliver a total of 100 bps in rate cuts through the remainder of 2025.

Meanwhile, the downside for the pair could be capped by recent comments from Trump. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump called for immediate interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” Trump said.

Investors are now closely watching for further details on Trump’s tariff policies, alongside key US economic data releases. The flash US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for January will be a key focus later on Friday, along with the release of US Existing Home Sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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