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EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens

EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens; FOMC Minutes in Spotlight

The EUR/USD pair slid to around 1.1705 during Wednesday’s Asian session, weighed down by renewed strength in the US Dollar. The Euro came under pressure following fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump, which unsettled global markets and added to investor caution. 

Trump reignited global trade concerns by proposing a 50% tariff on copper imports and hinted at possible duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. While he mentioned that negotiations with both the European Union and China are progressing well, he also warned that a tariff notice to the EU could be issued within days. This uncertainty has dented risk sentiment, putting the Euro under additional stress. 

Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, due later today. Market participants are hoping for more clarity on the Fed’s rate path, especially amid growing expectations of monetary easing. 

At its June meeting, the Fed held interest rates steady, maintaining the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%—a level unchanged since December. However, markets are now pricing in a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end, potentially beginning as early as October. 

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Australian Dollar Gains as Risk Sentiment Improves, RBA Decision in Focus

Australian Dollar Rises Amid Risk-On Sentiment, Focus Shifts to RBA Rate Decision

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its third straight session of gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following US President Donald Trump’s move to postpone the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. A weaker USD following disappointing US retail sales data has further supported the AUD/USD pair, reigniting speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates later this year despite persistent inflation concerns.

Yet, the AUD’s gains could be capped before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy announcement on Tuesday, as mounting speculation of a cut in interest rates deters sentiment. The RBA is widely expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10%, marking the first rate reduction in four years.

US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Lower Treasury Yields

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down for the third consecutive session, bogged down by weaker US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the DXY is trading around 106.70, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields at 4.26% and 4.47%, respectively.

Statistics released by the US Census Bureau on Friday indicated that US Retail Sales decreased 0.9% in January, a reversal from a revised 0.7% rise in December (earlier reported as 0.4%). The decrease was deeper than the market expectation of a 0.1% decline.

Conversely, Core PPI inflation in the US increased to 3.6% YoY in January, above expectations of 3.3%, though marginally less than the revised 3.7% (initially published as 3.5%). This has consolidated expectations that the Fed will push rate cuts until the second part of the year.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% YoY in January, beating expectations of 2.9%, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) went up to 3.3% from 3.2%, beating expectations of 3.1%. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose 0.5% in January compared to 0.4% in December, with core CPI rising to 0.4% from 0.2% in the same period.

Fed Officials Signal a Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts

In his semi-annual report to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that policymakers “do not need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates, citing a strong labor market and robust economic growth. Powell also warned that Trump’s tariff policies could exert upward pressure on inflation, making it harder for the central bank to lower rates.

A Reuters poll of economists now indicates the Fed will wait until next quarter to cut rates, citing ongoing inflationary concerns. Although previously, some analysts anticipated a March rate cut; the majority now sees at least one rate cut by June, but opinions remain divided.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack echoed this sentiment, saying that maintaining rates at current levels for a long time is probably the right thing to do. Hammack added that a patient strategy will enable the Fed to evaluate economic conditions before altering policy.

Australian Dollar Targets Upper Range Near 0.6400

The AUD/USD currency pair quotes at 0.6360 on Monday, with an uptrend in a rising channel formation. This is indicative of a bullish market inclination, which is also complemented by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 50.

On the upside, the pair could test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6380, followed by the psychological level of 0.6400.

Major levels of support are the nine-day EMA at 0.6310, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6294. A fall below these levels may erode short-term momentum, possibly pulling the pair down to the lower boundary of the rising channel at 0.6270.

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Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Jobless Claims

Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Holds Gains Ahead of Jobless Claims

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as trade balance data came in below average than expected. Furthermore, risk-off sentiment, fueled by rising US-China trade tensions, weighs on the AUD/USD.

In December, Australia’s trade surplus fell to $5,085 million, falling short of the 7,000 million anticipated and down from $6,792 million the previous year. While exports increased by 1.1% month on month, this was a decrease from November’s 4.2% increase, while imports increased by 5.9% month on month, much more than the previous 1.4% gain.

US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Australian Dollar

Investors are still focused on the current trade stagnation between the United States and China, Australia’s top trading partner. China replied to the United States’ new 10% tax, which went into force on Tuesday, causing global market concern. Regarding the situation, President Trump announced on Monday that he intends to engage with China within the next 24 hours. However, he cautioned that failure to achieve an agreement might result in “very, very substantial” tariffs.

Meanwhile, China’s Commerce Ministry imposed a 15% tax on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, as well as an additional 10% levy on crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos. As a countermeasure, China has implemented export limits on important minerals such as tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, and molybdenum, citing national security concerns.

Amid escalating trade tensions, the Financial Times writes that Chinese firms are quickening preparations to relocate production overseas, mainly to the Middle East, in order to reduce tariff impacts. Some exporters are also considering passing on prices to US consumers or expanding into new markets.

US Dollar Holds Firm Amid Mixed Economic Data

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, remains stable near 107.50, putting further downward pressure on the AUD/USD. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a weaker-than-expected US Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January, below the market forecast of 54.3.

Investors now focus on Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a key economic indicator that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.

The dollar fell on Wednesday, following a poor US Services PMI report. The ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, missing the market forecast of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are anticipating Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Pulls Back From 0.6300, Eyes Key Support

The AUD/USD pair hovers near 0.6280 on Thursday, retreating from the 0.6300 level. However, sustained trading above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) suggests short-term bullish momentum remains intact. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also holding above 50, reinforcing the bullish bias.

On the upside, the pair might target 0.6330, its seven-week high from January 24.

Immediate support comes from the nine-day EMA near 0.6254, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6249.

A breach below these levels might weaken the bullish structure, potentially sending the pair below 0.6087, its lowest level since April 2020, which was recorded on February 3.

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Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

The Australian Dollar (AUD) falls for the seventh consecutive day as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens following President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Market volatility remains high as investors monitor the continuing US-China trade talks. Trump signaled he may speak with Chinese officials within the next 24 hours, warning that if a deal isn’t reached, tariffs on China will be “very, very substantial.”

Trump also announced a 30-day tariff relief for Mexico and Canada after their nations agreed to send 10,000 troops to the US border to battle drug trafficking. This move follows the introduction of 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods just two days before.

Chinese Exporters Seek Alternatives

According to the Financial Times, Chinese manufacturers are speeding up plans to transfer production offshore in reaction to US tariffs. Some companies are considering relocating to regions such as the Middle East, while others are looking into passing costs on to US customers or entering new markets.

RBA Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on AUD

The AUD faces additional pressure amid growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut rates in February. The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since November 2023, stressing that inflation must return to its 2%-3% target range before easing policy.

Analysts at Westpac continue to forecast 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, with the market pricing in a more conservative outlook. ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and National Australia Bank (NAB) all anticipate a 25-basis-point (bps) cut in February, with NAB recently revising its forecast forward from May.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Developments

The US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilizes around 108.70 after erasing gains from the previous session. Recent US economic data support the greenback, with ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, exceeding expectations of 49.8.

Inflation indicators remain in focus as the Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 0.3% MoM in December, up from 0.1% in November. Annual PCE inflation increased to 2.6%, while core PCE held steady at 2.8% YoY for the third straight month.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, highlighted that further policy adjustments would be required if there was clear evidence of inflation advance or labor market weakness. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently argued for new uniform taxes on US imports, beginning at 2.5% and progressively increasing—a departure from his previous stance that tariffs cause inflation.

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

AUD/USD trades around 0.6210 on Tuesday, remaining within a descending channel pattern on the daily chart, signaling a bearish bias. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recovering toward the 50 level, suggesting weakening downside momentum. A breakout above the channel, combined with an RSI move above 50, could indicate a shift toward a bullish outlook.

On the downside, the pair may test the descending channel’s lower boundary near 0.6150. A break below this level could drive AUD/USD toward 0.6087, its lowest point since April 2020.

AUD/USD is currently testing its initial resistance, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6225, which aligns with the channel’s upper limit. A decisive move over this level could fuel bullish optimism.

 

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Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum

Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum; USD/JPY Struggles Below 154.50

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen in early European trading on Thursday, pushing USD/JPY further below 154.50 and closer to its one-month low from earlier this week. Market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again by year-end continue to support the JPY. Additionally, a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields, narrowing the US-Japan yield differential, has further boosted demand for the lower-yielding Yen.

However, concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may limit aggressive JPY buying. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish pause on Wednesday has bolstered the US Dollar (USD), which could provide some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders are now looking ahead to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which may increase market volatility and drive further demand for the safe-haven Yen. Additionally, the Advance US Q4 GDP report could introduce short-term trading opportunities.

JPY Gains on Hawkish BoJ Sentiment Amid Market Uncertainty

  • Minutes from the BoJ’s December meeting, released Wednesday, indicated discussions on using neutral interest rate estimates to guide future rate hikes.
  • Former BoJ board member Makoto Sakurai stated on Tuesday that steady rate increases remain feasible due to rising wages, sustained inflation, and strong economic growth.
  • The Federal Reserve, as expected, held rates steady after its two-day meeting and signaled no immediate plans for rate cuts.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a patient stance, stating there is no urgency to adjust policy and reaffirming that rates will stay elevated amid concerns over Trump’s trade policies, which could fuel inflation.
  • The 10-year US Treasury yield has struggled to sustain gains post-FOMC due to uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s economic policies.
  • Reports from Asahi newspaper indicate that Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is finalizing plans for a February 7 meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington.
  • The ECB’s policy decision later today is expected to introduce further volatility, alongside the Advance US Q4 GDP print.

USD/JPY at Risk of Retesting Monthly Lows Near 153.70

The USD/JPY pair faced renewed selling pressure near the 156.00 level, breaking below the key 155.00 psychological mark, confirming a multi-month ascending channel breakdown. Momentum indicators on the daily chart suggest continued downside movement, making a retest of the 153.70 region—a multi-week low touched on Monday—a strong possibility.

Key resistance levels for a rebound:

  • 155.00 round figure
  • 155.35-155.40 region
  • 156.00 psychological level

Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling pressure near these levels. A sustained break above 156.25 could trigger short-covering, potentially lifting USD/JPY toward 156.70-156.75, with further resistance at 157.00 and 157.60.

For now, the bias remains bearish, with further losses expected if the pair stays below 154.00. Traders will closely watch US data and global central bank policy updates for the next directional move.

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Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold price (XAU/USD) faces selling pressure at the beginning of the week, pulling back from its highest level since late October, near the $2,786 mark touched on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) has staged a modest recovery following its worst weekly performance since November 2023, which has weighed on the precious metal. However, the broader market dynamics remain supportive of a bullish outlook, suggesting potential dip-buying opportunities at lower price levels.

Market Sentiment Dampened by Trade Tensions and Fed Speculation

Risk sentiment has deteriorated due to US President Donald Trump’s recent decision to impose tariffs on all imports from Colombia, reigniting fears of a trade war. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates twice by year-end, combined with a flight to safe-haven assets, have triggered a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields. This decline could limit aggressive gains in the USD, potentially cushioning the downside for gold, a non-yielding asset.

Gold Under Pressure from USD Recovery, but Downside Remains Limited

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of currencies, rose nearly 0.25% on Monday, driven by revived concerns over US trade policies. President Trump ordered 25% emergency tariffs on all Colombian imports following the country’s refusal to accept deported migrants from the US, with a threat to raise tariffs to 50% next week. Moreover, reports suggest that Trump’s advisors are considering imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1.

In a recent update, the White House confirmed that Colombia has agreed to Trump’s demands, including the unrestricted acceptance of deported individuals. Meanwhile, Trump has reiterated his call for immediate interest rate cuts, fueling speculation of further easing by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The resulting decline in US Treasury yields may act as a headwind for the USD, potentially limiting the extent of gold’s pullback.

Traders Eye Economic Data for Further Clues

Market participants will turn their focus to key US economic data, including Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, for fresh impetus during the US trading session.

Gold Price Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

Gold’s recent decline may attract dip-buying near the $2,736 support zone, as the technical setup remains bullish. Any further slide below the $2,750-2,748 range could find solid support near $2,736, with additional key levels at $2,725-2,720. A break below $2,720 could trigger technical selling, pushing prices toward the $2,665-2,662 zone.

On the upside, a sustained move above the $2,772-2,773 resistance could open the door for a retest of the recent peak near $2,786. Further buying momentum beyond the $2,800 psychological level could signal a renewed bullish phase, extending the upward trend

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Gold Price Holds Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold Price Remains Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold price (XAU/USD) came under selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday, retreating from the multi-month high of $2,763–$2,764 touched the previous day. This decline halts a three-day winning streak. The US Dollar (USD) gained some strength from its recovery off a monthly low, supported by a rebound in US Treasury bond yields, and the upbeat sentiment in equity markets further dampened demand for the safe-haven metal.

Signs of easing inflation in the US have fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates twice this year, creating a potential headwind for US bond yields and the USD. However, ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which could increase trade tensions and market volatility, may help limit the downside for gold prices. Traders may remain cautious and wait for sustained selling pressure to confirm that the one-month uptrend has ended.

Risk-On Mood and Modest USD Rebound Cap Gold Gains

The USD steadied above its recent lows amid recovering Treasury yields, adding pressure to gold prices. In addition, easing geopolitical tensions and a lack of concrete details regarding Trump’s tariff policies have maintained a risk-on sentiment, further undermining gold’s appeal.

While Trump’s proposed tariff policies are considered inflationary, which could prompt the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, markets are still pricing in at least two Fed rate cuts this year. This outlook may limit the upside for US bond yields and the USD, potentially supporting gold in the near term.

Investors are eyeing Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum for more clarity on tariffs, alongside the release of US Weekly Jobless Claims, which could influence XAU/USD prices. Upcoming central bank rate decisions, including the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday and next week’s announcements from the Fed and the European Central Bank, could inject volatility into the market and impact gold prices.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Key Support Levels:

  • Immediate support is seen near the $2,725–$2,720 zone, a former resistance-turned-support level.
  • Further declines could target the $2,700 mark, with a decisive break paving the way for a move toward the $2,665–$2,662 region.
  • The $2,627–$2,622 confluence, which includes the 100-day EMA and a short-term ascending trendline, will act as a critical pivot point for short-term traders.

Key Resistance Levels:

  • The recent high near $2,763–$2,764 offers the first resistance level.
  • A break above this zone could see gold prices challenge the all-time high around $2,790, reached in October.
  • The $2,800 mark is the next significant resistance, and a break above it would signal a continuation of the well-established uptrend over the past month.

Outlook:

Gold prices remain influenced by risk sentiment, central bank policy expectations, and USD movements. While near-term bearish factors may limit gains, uncertainty around US tariff policies and inflation trends could provide support, making any dips near key technical levels potential opportunities for dip-buying. Traders will remain focused on upcoming economic data and central bank decisions for further direction.

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Impending Adjustments in US Stocks May Pose Challenges for Global Funds

Impending Adjustments in US Stocks May Pose Challenges for Global Funds

The upcoming shift to a shorter settlement cycle for U.S. securities is presenting significant challenges for international fund managers. This change, set to be implemented on May 28, is a move to a T+1 settlement cycle, where transactions are settled one business day after the trade. This is a reduction from the current T+2 standard and is a direct response to reduce the risks associated with unsettled trades, particularly highlighted by the volatile events like the 2021 GameStop stock plunge.

This transition to T+1 in the U.S. creates a discrepancy with the settlement cycles in most other countries, which typically follow a T+2 cycle. The disparity is leading to a reevaluation of transaction processes among global market participants, with a focus on preventing transaction failures and managing increased trading costs. This change has implications on various operational aspects for fund managers globally.

One of the critical challenges facing international fund managers is staffing. The new settlement cycle demands more rapid processing of trades, which could necessitate additional personnel or shifts in workforce management to ensure timely compliance. Furthermore, fund managers are contemplating holding larger cash reserves. This strategy is considered necessary to bridge potential gaps in transaction processing, although it might adversely impact the overall performance of the funds due to the lower yield on cash holdings compared to other investments.

Another significant concern is the heightened foreign exchange risk. With the faster settlement cycle, fund managers will have less time to manage and hedge against the fluctuations in currency values, which could lead to increased exposure to foreign exchange volatility.

The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a key player in securities clearing and settlement in the U.S., has been actively engaging with industry bodies like the Investment Company Institute (ICI) to facilitate this transition. However, despite not commenting directly, DTCC has indicated through a recently published paper that market participants need to expedite their preparation for the change.

Industry experts acknowledge the complexity and the challenges of moving to T+1. They point out that while it is a complicated initiative, it brings substantial risk reduction and operational benefits. For instance, Tom Price, a managing director at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, highlighted the operational benefits of this transition. Similarly, RJ Rondini, the director of securities operations at ICI, pointed out that the overall reduction in capital requirements due to the faster settlement cycle outweighs the risks in other areas.

In summary, while the move to a T+1 settlement cycle in the U.S. is aimed at mitigating risks associated with unsettled trades and enhancing overall market efficiency, it brings a set of new challenges for international fund managers, including staffing adjustments, the need for higher cash reserves, and increased exposure to foreign exchange risk. These factors collectively necessitate a reevaluation of current practices and processes to adapt effectively to this significant market change.

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Japan’s Stocks Fluctuate, Yen Nears 150 Following BOJ’s Predicted Policy Shift

Japan’s Stocks Fluctuate, Yen Nears 150 Following BOJ’s Predicted Policy Shift

On Tuesday the Japanese stock market experienced notable fluctuations, while the national currency, the yen, weakened to a level close to 150 per dollar. This market activity followed the Bank of Japan’s landmark decision to conclude its eight-year practice of negative interest rates, marking the country’s first instance of policy tightening since 2007.

The decision by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) comes at a time when central banks around the world are holding meetings to determine their monetary policies. The BOJ’s move signifies a departure from a prolonged period of extremely accommodating monetary policy. This policy shift involves setting the overnight call rate as the new target, with a guidance range between 0 and 0.1%. Additionally, the central bank announced that it would pay 0.1% interest on excess reserves that financial institutions hold with it.

In anticipation of this policy change, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to conduct a press conference at 0630 GMT to elucidate the rationale behind this decision. Market participants are particularly keen to discern insights about the trajectory and speed of potential future rate hikes. Frederic Neumann, the chief Asia economist at HSBC, commented on this development, noting that the BOJ has taken its initial step towards normalizing its policy. However, he expressed skepticism about the BOJ’s ability to significantly increase short-term interest rates soon, coining the term ‘stuck at zero’ to describe this situation.

In the wake of these developments, Japan’s Nikkei index exhibited a volatile performance, alternating between gains and losses. Concurrently, the yen’s depreciation to 149.74 per dollar against the U.S. dollar suggests that market participants had already factored in the BOJ’s policy shift, following weeks of speculation and media reports indicating an imminent change. Analysts believe that the yen’s future trajectory will be more heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, including the timing and magnitude of any rate cuts by the U.S. central bank. Furthermore, the BOJ has committed to maintaining an accommodative policy stance, leading traders to anticipate that interest rates will remain at zero for an extended period.

In the context of these developments, HSBC’s Neumann highlighted the need for the BOJ to exercise extreme caution in any further policy tightening. This is to prevent any potential appreciation of the yen that could undermine the hard-earned progress in reflation. In other Asian markets, there was a general downturn. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell by 0.62%. In China, stocks also declined, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropping by more than 1% and the blue-chip shares easing by 0.3%.

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Stocks Rally as Powell Maintains Course on Interest Rate Reductions

Stocks Rally as Powell Maintains Course on Interest Rate Reductions

On Wednesday, U.S. stock markets experienced a significant resurgence, particularly in the technology sector, which made a robust recovery from the previous day’s considerable downturn. This upward trend was largely influenced by investor reactions to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest comments, suggesting that interest rate cuts are still on the table for this year.

The Nasdaq Composite, known for its concentration of tech stocks, saw an impressive increase of nearly 0.6%. This uptick was a notable turnaround from Tuesday, when tech stocks led a broader market decline. Similarly, the S&P 500 rose by 0.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 0.2%. Both indices were recovering from losses exceeding 1% from the previous session.

Investor focus is currently centered on Powell’s upcoming testimony to Congress. This event is anticipated to be a key driver for market movements, following two consecutive days of losses. These losses were partly attributed to significant declines in major tech companies like Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA), which stoked concerns about a potential tech bubble.

Key to investor sentiment is any potential deviation in Powell’s remarks from the Federal Reserve’s consistent message that they are not in a hurry to slash interest rates. In a prior statement to lawmakers, Powell hinted that rate cuts could be appropriate “at some point” in 2024, leaving investors eager for more detailed insights as Powell answers questions from lawmakers over the next two days.

Powell, addressing the House Financial Services Committee, suggested that if the economy continues to progress as expected, it may be appropriate to start reducing policy restraint within the year. His statements are being closely monitored for indications of the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction.

In terms of individual stocks, New York Community Bank (NYCB) experienced a dramatic day, ultimately closing with an increase of over 7%. The stock initially plunged following reports that NYCB was seeking investors for a stock purchase. However, it made a remarkable recovery after the bank announced the appointment of a new CEO and a $1 billion investment from a consortium, including former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Investors are now keenly awaiting further cues from Powell’s testimony, which could significantly influence market trajectories in the days to come. The anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rate adjustments continues to be a pivotal factor in market dynamics.

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Morgan Stanley: Global Funds Reinvest in China Stocks

Morgan Stanley: Global Funds Reinvest in China Stocks

As February concluded, the dynamics surrounding Chinese equities experienced a significant shift. Recent data compiled by strategists Gilbert Wong and Laura Wang, published in a March 4 note, highlighted a noteworthy deceleration in the outflows from Chinese stocks. Importantly, regional active managers began increasingly focusing on sectors like technology and growth stocks, indicating a renewed interest in the Chinese market.

This development coincides with China’s intensified efforts to instill confidence in its economy. Notably, mainland stocks have successfully halted a six-month trend of net foreign investment outflows. The analysis presented by Wong and Wang suggests that the changing tide in investment flows might not be solely attributable to the Chinese government’s intervention through purchases by state-affiliated entities, often referred to as the “national team.” This observation could alleviate some concerns about the durability of the market’s recovery from its January lows.

The report also pointed out a significant increase in the realized volatility of the MSCI China index. It leaped from 20% in late December to over 30% by mid-February on an annualized basis. Such high volatility levels have made maintaining a substantial underweight position in Chinese stocks a high-risk strategy for most regional investment funds.

Furthermore, the strategists noted a shift in stance by Asia ex-Japan funds and emerging market funds based in the US and Europe. These funds have reportedly lessened their underweight positions in Chinese equities in February. Despite the ongoing trend of net outflows in equities from mainland China and Hong Kong, which amounted to $2.2 billion in February (a slight decrease from $2.6 billion in January), there is a sense of optimism. The bulk of these outflows, around 95%, were attributed to investor redemptions, as per EPFR data.

The recent moderation in outflows could signify a pivotal moment. Money managers across the region appear to be reassessing their asset allocations. Notably, some funds have started to reduce their investments in India, citing overvaluation concerns and a search for better risk-reward opportunities elsewhere. This shift could signal a positive outlook for China’s position in global investment portfolios, suggesting a potential resurgence in its attractiveness to international investors.

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US Equities Decline as Market Anticipates Crucial

US Equities Decline as Market Anticipates Crucial PCE Inflation Data

On Wednesday, US stock markets experienced a decline as investors focused their attention on the anticipated inflation data while evaluating the prospects of interest rate adjustments in the current year. This downturn was marked by a notable drop in major market indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average recording its third consecutive session of losses.

The financial community is particularly attentive to the upcoming release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, scheduled for Thursday. This index is regarded by the Federal Reserve as a critical gauge of inflation. Forecasts by Dow Jones-surveyed economists suggest an expected increase in consumer expenditure prices of 0.3% for January, which surpasses the 0.2% rise observed in the previous month. The significance of this data lies in its potential influence on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions throughout the year. A higher-than-anticipated inflation figure could pivot the Fed’s strategy on rate adjustments.

Analysts, including Arnim Holzer of Easterly EAB Risk Solution, have commented on the market’s anticipation of the PCE report. They speculate that the inflation rate might exceed last month’s figures, but also acknowledge the Federal Reserve’s current stance of cautious observation. This approach seems prudent given the Fed’s ongoing efforts to manage inflation effectively.

Investor sentiment regarding the possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has seen a shift. There is a growing consensus that fewer rate reductions might occur this year. This change in outlook is partly due to the resilience of the US economy, which appears robust enough to lessen the necessity for aggressive rate cuts aimed at staving off a recession.

Market predictions, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool, indicate a nearly certain expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates at its forthcoming policy meeting. Furthermore, there’s a 57% probability, as per market projections, that the Fed will limit rate reductions to 75 basis points or less by year-end. These predictions underscore a cautious yet optimistic view of the economy, balancing the need to control inflation with the importance of sustaining economic growth. The forthcoming PCE index report thus holds significant weight in shaping the Fed’s monetary policy and the broader economic outlook for the year.

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European Shares Show Mixed Performance

European Shares Show Mixed Performance Following Worldwide Market Retreat; Abrdn Rises by 4.5%

European Shares Show Mixed Performance Following Worldwide Market Retreat; Abrdn Rises by 4.5%

European markets exhibited a mixed performance on Tuesday morning, reflecting a broader trend of declining momentum in global markets. The Stoxx 600, a key European stock market index, was relatively unchanged as of 9:20 a.m., indicating a cautious stance among investors. This was a notable contrast to the recent global market downturn, demonstrating the variable nature of current market sentiments.

In the Stoxx 600, mining stocks were a standout, rising by 1.3%, showcasing resilience in this sector. This uptick in mining stocks could be attributed to various factors, including commodity prices or sector-specific developments. On the other hand, media stocks didn’t fare as well, experiencing a 0.5% decline. This decrease in media stocks could be reflecting changing investor attitudes towards the media sector or broader market trends impacting these stocks.

One significant mover in the European market was the investment firm and asset manager, Abrdn. Abrdn’s stock rose by 4.3%, a noteworthy increase, following the announcement of its financial results. Despite a 5% fall in operating profit, the results surpassed market expectations, instilling confidence among investors. Moreover, Abrdn also revealed plans to streamline its operations by cutting 500 jobs. This restructuring plan likely contributed to the positive investor sentiment, as it could be seen as a move towards greater efficiency and cost management in a challenging economic environment.

In the Asia-Pacific region, markets turned lower overnight, contributing to the global market pullback. Hong Kong’s stock market led these declines, indicating specific regional challenges or sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei 225 also retreated, relinquishing gains from earlier in the session. This shift in the Asia-Pacific markets reflects the interconnectedness of global financial markets and how regional events can influence broader market trends.

The trading sentiment globally was subdued, following a pause in the previously robust Wall Street rally. On Monday, major U.S. indexes pulled back from their record highs, signaling a potential recalibration of investor expectations or reactions to emerging market data. Early Tuesday, S&P 500 futures were nearly flat, suggesting a breather in the market rally and possibly a period of reassessment for investors.

In the United States, investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators. A key focus this week is the monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Scheduled for release on Thursday, this data could provide crucial insights into inflation trends and potentially influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. The anticipation surrounding this release underscores the current market sensitivity to inflation data, as it plays a critical role in shaping monetary policy and investor expectations in an evolving economic landscape.

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Nikkei Reaches Historic Peak, Echoing

Nikkei Reaches Historic Peak, Echoing 1989 Highs

Nikkei Reaches Historic Peak, Echoing 1989 Highs

Japanese stocks have achieved a remarkable milestone, reaching a record high on Thursday that surpasses levels last witnessed in 1989 during the height of the bubble economy. This surge in the Nikkei share average, which peaked at 39,156.97 points, has marked a significant moment in Japan’s financial history, breaking the previous intraday record of 38,957.44 points set on the final trading day of 1989. The index closed even higher at 39,098.68, showcasing a robust 2.19% increase.

This achievement is not just about surpassing a numerical threshold; it represents a historic recovery, taking 34 years to reclaim its heights – a duration longer than any major market has taken, including Wall Street’s recovery from the 1929 crash and the Great Depression. Tsutomu Yamada, a senior market analyst at Au Kabucom Securities in Tokyo, reflects on this achievement as the dawn of a new era, symbolizing Japan’s escape from deflation and the opening of a new chapter in its economic story.

In 2023, the Nikkei was already showing signs of this resurgence, being the best-performing major bourse in Asia with a 28% surge. This momentum has continued into 2024, with an impressive 17% rise so far. This performance stands out even when compared to tech-heavy indices like Nasdaq, which had a 43% rise last year and a 6% increase in 2024.

The breakthrough moment was met with excitement on Nomura’s Tokyo trading floor, where traders celebrated as the Nikkei surpassed its 1989 high. This enthusiasm was not just about numbers; it was a collective acknowledgment of overcoming decades of underperformance that had deterred global investors.

Japan’s economic resilience, despite facing a domestic recession, conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, a global inflation shock, and rising rates worldwide, has been noteworthy. Its trade exposure and a weaker currency have been instrumental in insulating the economy from internal demand issues and boosting exporters’ earnings.

The resurgence of the Nikkei also symbolizes a significant psychological shift for the Japanese people, many of whom have never seen the index at these levels. Richard Kaye, a Japan-based portfolio manager at Comgest, highlights the potential for this momentum to attract domestic liquidity in unforeseen amounts.

Corporate governance changes in Japan, such as driving buybacks and unwinding cross-holdings, have been catalysts in this rally. Foreign investment, including significant investment from Warren Buffett in 2020, has put a spotlight on Japan’s attractive valuations. Foreign investors infused a substantial 6.3 trillion yen ($42 billion) into the equity market last year, with a net spend of 1.16 trillion yen in Japanese equities in January alone.

Further fueling this rally is a robust earnings season, a depreciating yen nearing the 150 per dollar level, and expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy. Bank of America’s Asia fund manager survey for February reflects this optimism, with nearly a third of participants expecting double-digit returns from Japan’s stock market over the next 12 months. This optimism is underlined by analysts raising their year-end forecasts for the Nikkei, with expectations now set at around 39,000 points by the end of 2024.

However, despite this strong performance and optimism, there are indications in the derivative market of potential short-term disruptions to this momentum. Nevertheless, the current scenario portrays a revitalized Japanese stock market, drawing significant interest and investment, and marking a historic turning point in its financial narrative.

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WTI Crude Oil Climbs to $73.50 as Middle-East Tensions Raise Supply Disruption Fears

WTI Crude Oil Rises to $73.50 Amid Middle-East Tensions and Potential Supply Disruption

WTI Crude Oil Rises to $73.50 Amid Middle-East Tensions and Potential Supply Disruption

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil continues its upward trend for the fourth consecutive day, trading near $73.50 per barrel during Friday’s Asian session. The rise in oil prices is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from a region that accounts for approximately one-third of global crude production.

US President Joe Biden revealed that the US is in discussions with Israel regarding possible strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, as tensions mount following Iran’s missile attack on Israel earlier in the week. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran would face severe repercussions for its actions, which included firing over 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, according to a BBC report.

Despite the growing risks, OPEC+—a group that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia and Kazakhstan—has significant spare capacity to offset a potential loss of Iranian supply. However, if Iran retaliates by targeting the oil facilities of its Gulf neighbors, it could present significant challenges to global supply.

OPEC+ has been reducing oil output in recent years to support prices amid sluggish global demand. Currently, the group’s production cuts amount to 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd). Analysts estimate that Saudi Arabia has the capacity to increase production by 3 million bpd, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) could boost output by 1.4 million bpd if necessary.

In a separate development, Libya’s National Oil Corporation and its eastern-based government announced on Thursday the reopening of oil fields and export terminals, ending a leadership dispute that had severely curtailed the country’s oil production. According to Reuters, this resolution is expected to restore a significant portion of Libya’s crude supply to the global market.

 

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WTI Jumps Above $70 Amid Fears of Oil Supply Disruptions After Iran Missile Strike on Israel

WTI Surges Above $70 as Iran Missile Strike on Israel Sparks Fears in Global Oil Markets

WTI Surges Above $70 as Iran Missile Strike on Israel Sparks Fears in Global Oil Markets

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, climbed to around $70.65 on Wednesday. The surge comes after Iran launched missiles at Israel, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from the region.

Iran fired over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to vow retaliation. Tehran warned that any counterattack would lead to “vast destruction,” stoking fears of a broader conflict. Israel has also hinted at the possibility of striking Iranian oil facilities, which could escalate into a regional war, further heightening concerns about supply disruptions in the global oil market.
Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories fell less than expected last week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude stockpiles in the US declined by 1.5 million barrels for the week ending September 27, compared to the prior week’s 4.339 million barrel drop. Market expectations were for a decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

On the downside, recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, who pushed back against calls for a significant rate cut in November, could weigh on WTI prices. Powell acknowledged that more rate cuts are likely, given the economy’s solid footing, but he cautioned against making drastic adjustments too quickly.

Traders are closely watching speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, including Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Beth Hammack, Alberto Musalem, and Michelle Bowman, for further market guidance. Any hawkish signals from the Fed could pressure WTI prices. It’s also important to note that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, which typically boosts oil demand.

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WTI Holds Near $69.00 Amid Rising Middle East Supply Fears

WTI Holds Near $69.00 Amid Rising Middle East Supply Fears

WTI Holds Near $69.00 Amid Rising Middle East Supply Fears

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude holds steady around $69.20 per barrel during Monday’s Asian session, driven by rising concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from escalating conflict in the Middle East. Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly Israel’s intensified attacks on Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, have sparked fears of instability, which could push oil prices higher.

ANZ Research, as reported by Reuters, noted that the increasing likelihood of Iran’s involvement in the conflict is contributing to concerns, as Iran is a major oil producer and OPEC member. Over the weekend, Israel expanded its military campaign by bombing Houthi targets in Yemen, following the recent killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

On the other hand, oil prices are facing downward pressure from mixed economic data out of China, the world’s largest oil importer. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for September fell to 49.3, signaling contraction, while the NBS Manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.8, surpassing market expectations.

Oil traders are also keeping a close eye on China’s monetary stimulus measures aimed at boosting economic activity and energy demand. China recently announced a CNY 1 trillion capital injection into its largest state banks, marking the most significant financial move since the 2008 crisis.

However, potential headwinds for crude prices could come from Saudi Arabia’s plans to increase production. Saudi Arabia is expected to resume oil production on December 1, with OPEC+ agreeing to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day. Reports suggest that the Kingdom is committed to this increase, even if it temporarily pressures prices downward.

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WTI Extends Rally Above $70.00 as Hurricane Francine Disrupts Production

WTI Extends Rally Above $70.00 as Hurricane Francine Disrupts Production

WTI Extends Rally Above $70.00 as Hurricane Francine Disrupts Production

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.35 on Tuesday, continuing its rally as Hurricane Francine impacts oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico. The storm has caused significant disruptions, with the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) reporting on Monday that roughly 12% of crude oil production and 16% of natural gas output in the Gulf have been halted. This supply disruption has pushed WTI prices to two-week highs.

Adding to the bullish momentum, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Investors are increasingly betting on a 50 basis point rate cut, according to CME FedWatch. Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, which typically supports increased demand for oil.
However, ongoing concerns about Chinese demand may temper some of WTI’s gains. China, the world’s largest oil importer, continues to show signs of an economic slowdown. Over the weekend, data revealed that Chinese industrial production growth fell to a five-month low in August, with further deterioration in retail sales and new home prices.

Xtrememarkets market strategist Yeap Jun Rong highlighted that weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data has dampened market sentiment, raising doubts about future oil demand as China’s growth outlook remains sluggish. This could weigh on WTI’s upward momentum.

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WTI Falls to Around $72.50 as OPEC+ Plans Production Increase

WTI Falls to Around $72.50 as OPEC+ Plans Production Increase

WTI Falls to Around $72.50 as OPEC+ Plans Production Increase

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have declined for the second consecutive session, trading near $72.50 per barrel during Monday’s Asian trading hours. This downward trend is largely attributed to reports that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) are planning to increase oil production in the upcoming quarter.

According to a Reuters report citing six sources, OPEC+ is expected to proceed with a planned production increase starting in October. Specifically, eight OPEC+ member countries are set to boost their output by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month. This move is part of a broader strategy to gradually reverse a recent production cut of 2.2 million bpd while maintaining other cuts until the end of 2025.
However, the fall in crude oil prices could be mitigated by ongoing supply concerns. In Libya, oil export disruptions caused by conflicts between rival factions have constrained supply. Despite this, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company has resumed production, operating at up to 120,000 bpd to satisfy domestic demand.

Weak demand in China and the United States, the world’s largest oil consumers, could further weigh on WTI prices. An official survey indicated that China’s manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, accompanied by a sharp drop in factory gate prices. In response, Chinese policymakers are advancing plans to increase economic stimulus for households.

In the US, oil consumption in June hit its lowest seasonal levels since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) last Friday. Analysts at ANZ have highlighted potential downside risks to growth in 2025, driven by economic challenges in both China and the US. They suggest that OPEC may need to delay phasing out its voluntary production cuts if it aims to support higher oil prices.

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WTI Crude Oil Prices Remain Steady

WTI Crude Oil Prices Remain Steady Below $73 Amid US Recession Concerns and Easing Supply Fears

WTI Crude Oil Prices Remain Steady Below $73 Amid US Recession Concerns and Easing Supply Fears

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are struggling to build on Thursday’s rebound from a two-week low near the mid-$71 range, trading in a narrow band around $72.75 during Friday’s Asian session. The commodity remains nearly flat for the day and is set for significant weekly losses due to ongoing concerns about slowing demand.

The downward revision of US job growth figures for the year through March has reignited fears of a potential recession in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. Additionally, persistent concerns about an economic slowdown in China, the world’s top oil importer, are acting as headwinds for WTI crude. Meanwhile, optimism about a ceasefire in Gaza is also limiting the upside for oil prices, as US officials indicated that a truce between Israel and Hamas could be imminent. This development eases concerns over a broader conflict in the Middle East, a critical oil-producing region, and potential supply disruptions.

On the supportive side, US government data released on Wednesday revealed a substantial drawdown in crude oil inventories, suggesting strong domestic demand. Moreover, market expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates—potentially announcing a 25 basis point reduction at the September meeting—could boost economic activity, thereby supporting crude oil prices. Despite these factors, the US Dollar’s inability to sustain its recovery from year-to-date lows provides some support to USD-denominated commodities, including crude oil, mitigating the risk of further declines.

Given these mixed signals, traders are cautious about taking new positions and are awaiting clearer market direction before betting on an extension of the nearly two-week downtrend in WTI prices.

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Oil Edges Higher Ahead of Weekly Stockpile Reports

Oil Edges Higher Ahead of Weekly Stockpile Reports

Oil Edges Higher Ahead of Weekly Stockpile Reports

Oil prices are trading relatively flat on Wednesday after experiencing sharp declines over the past three sessions. The stabilization follows reports that a tanker in the Red Sea was attacked by Houthi rebels. Delta Tankers confirmed that its vessel, Sounion, sustained minor damage in the attack. This incident adds further tension to the region just as Hamas is reportedly considering a ceasefire proposal in Gaza from both Israel and the US.

Similarly, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trying to recover from a losing streak that erased all its gains for 2024. The key focus today is the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which could provide insights ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. Additionally, the Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision may result in adjustments to employment data for the past year, up until March.

At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude is trading at $73.23 per barrel, while Brent Crude is at $76.92 per barrel.

Oil Market Update: Red Sea Tensions and Stockpile Data

  • OPEC+ Production Constraints: OPEC+ is unlikely to increase production significantly due to concerns that higher output could further depress prices, especially with increased supply from the US and Brazil, according to BP’s Chief Economist Spencer Dale, as reported by Bloomberg.
  • Uganda’s Crude Development: Uganda’s Energy Minister, Ruth Nankabirwa, announced progress on a $20 billion Crude development project in partnership with TotalEnergies and Cnooc.
  • Tanker Incident: Delta Tankers reported that the Sounion tanker has been attacked three times and is still determining if the vessel remains on course or is adrift, according to Reuters.
  • Crude Stockpile Changes: The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a modest stockpile increase of 347,000 barrels overnight, which contrasts with analysts’ expectations of a 2.8 million barrel drawdown.

Later today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly Crude stockpile data. The previous report indicated a build of 1.357 million barrels, with expectations now for a drawdown of 2.8 million barrels.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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Bank of Japan Stance

Japanese Yen Weakens Amid Dovish Bank of Japan Stance

Japanese Yen Weakens Amid Dovish Bank of Japan Stance

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day, largely due to dovish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida on Wednesday. According to Reuters, Uchida stated, “We won’t raise rates when markets are unstable,” highlighting the BoJ’s cautious approach.

Deputy Governor Uchida also indicated that the BoJ’s interest rate policy may be adjusted if market volatility impacts economic forecasts, risk assessments, or projections. Given the recent market instability, he stressed the importance of closely monitoring the economic and price effects of their policies, adding, “We must maintain the current degree of monetary easing for the time being.”

Despite the JPY’s weakness, the USD/JPY pair’s upside may be capped as the US Dollar faces headwinds, with market participants increasingly expecting a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting in September. The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 67.5% probability of a 50-basis point (bps) rate cut by the Fed in September, up from 13.2% just a week ago.

Japanese Yen Weakens Following BoJ’s Uchida Remarks

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi commented on Tuesday that “wage increases are expected to extend to part-timers and small businesses by autumn, supported by strong Shunto results and minimum wage hikes.” However, Hayashi did not address current foreign exchange levels.

Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings data for June showed a 4.5% year-on-year increase in average income, exceeding both the previous 2.0% and the expected 2.3% figures. This marks the highest rise since January 1997 and reinforces the possibility of Japan moving towards a higher interest rate environment.

Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve officials have shared their views on the economic outlook. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly expressed confidence on Monday that US inflation is moving towards the Fed’s 2% target. She noted, “Risks to the Fed’s mandates are becoming more balanced,” suggesting a potential openness to rate cuts in upcoming meetings.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also remarked on Monday that the central bank is ready to act if economic or financial conditions deteriorate. He emphasized, “We’re forward-looking about it, and so if conditions collectively start deteriorating on any of those fronts, we’re going to address it,” as reported by Reuters.

The minutes from the BoJ’s June meeting revealed concerns among some members about rising import prices due to the Yen’s recent decline, which could increase inflationary pressures. One member warned that cost-push inflation could elevate underlying inflation if it leads to higher inflation expectations and wage growth.

In its Quarterly Outlook Report released on Thursday, the BoJ noted the potential for wages and inflation to exceed expectations, driven by heightened inflation expectations and a tight labor market.

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Gold Price Trades with Modest Losses

Gold Price Trades with Modest Losses Below $2,400, Downside Potential Appears Limited

Gold Price Trades with Modest Losses Below $2,400, Downside Potential Appears Limited

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to build on the previous day’s rebound from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support around the $2,365-$2,364 region, a one-week low, attracting some intraday selling pressure on Tuesday. The dip is driven by renewed US Dollar (USD) strength, supported by rising US Treasury bond yields and a risk-on sentiment, which has pushed the safe-haven metal below the $2,400 mark.

However, expectations for more substantial interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are likely to cap US bond yields and limit the Greenback’s gains. Additionally, geopolitical tensions from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East may further support Gold prices, keeping the downside limited. Given the lack of significant US economic data releases, caution is warranted before betting on an extended decline from last week’s near all-time highs.

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Gold Price Stabilizes Amid Firm Fed Rate

Gold Price Stabilizes Amid Firm Fed Rate-Cut Bets and Middle East Conflicts

Gold Price Stabilizes Amid Firm Fed Rate-Cut Bets and Middle East Conflicts

Gold (XAU/USD) has recovered to trade above $2,440 after dipping near $2,410 during Monday’s European session. The precious metal faced selling pressure as traders booked profits while it attempted to reclaim its all-time highs above $2,480. Despite this, the overall outlook for gold remains strong, supported by declining US bond yields.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has dropped to 3.67%, fueled by growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Concurrently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar’s value against six major currencies, has fallen to its March low near 102.60.

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, 30-day Federal Funds futures pricing suggests that traders see a 50-basis point (bp) rate cut in September as highly likely. The data also indicates that the Fed is expected to reduce its key borrowing rates by more than 100 bps over the course of this year.

Expectations for larger rate cuts have been driven by a series of weak economic reports from the United States, indicating a potential economic slowdown and raising concerns about the Fed’s ability to achieve a “soft landing”—curbing inflation without triggering a recession.

Deteriorating labor market conditions and a sharp decline in the manufacturing sector are key factors behind the increased expectations for significant rate cuts. The July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report revealed a marked slowdown in labor demand, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to its highest level since November 2021.

New payrolls came in at 114,000, well below the estimates of 175,000 and June’s figure of 179,000. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, surpassing expectations and the previous release of 4.1%. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity, as indicated by the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), contracted more rapidly, falling to 46.8 in July.

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Yen Weakens as Dollar Gains Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

Yen Weakens as Dollar Gains Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

Yen Weakens as Dollar Gains Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

The Japanese Yen (JPY) ended its two-day winning streak on Monday, as the USD/JPY pair recovered its daily losses with the US Dollar (USD) gaining ground amid risk-off sentiment.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its economic assessment for five of Japan’s nine regions in its latest ‘Sakura Report’. The assessment for two regions was raised, while it was lowered for another two regions. The BOJ also noted that wage hikes are spreading among smaller firms in many regions.

Despite the BOJ’s positive regional assessments, the US Dollar’s strength is largely driven by broader market conditions. The recent weaker-than-expected US employment growth data has influenced market sentiment. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June showed job growth that exceeded market expectations, though the pace of growth was slower compared to May. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate increased in June. These factors have led to speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may initiate interest rate cuts sooner rather than later.

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are now pricing in a 70.7% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 64.1% just a week earlier. This dovish sentiment surrounding the Fed has impacted the USD, but the risk-off mood in the broader market has provided support for the greenback.

The market’s current focus is on the potential for the Fed to adjust its monetary policy in response to evolving economic conditions. Traders and investors are closely watching upcoming economic data releases and Fed communications for further signals. This uncertainty contributes to the fluctuating strength of the USD and its impact on currency pairs like USD/JPY.

In summary, the Japanese Yen’s recent weakness and the US Dollar’s gains are influenced by a combination of BOJ’s regional economic assessments and the Fed’s dovish outlook amid mixed economic data. The market’s anticipation of possible Fed rate cuts in the near future adds to the complexity of the current financial landscape. As traders continue to navigate these dynamics, the performance of the USD/JPY pair remains a key focal point.

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Australian Dollar Rises on Hawkish RBA Sentiment

Australian Dollar Rises on Hawkish RBA Sentiment

Australian Dollar Rises on Hawkish RBA Sentiment

The Australian Dollar (AUD) appreciated for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, driven by high inflation and expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will delay potential rate cuts. The June Meeting Minutes from the RBA revealed that the board saw a stronger case for holding rates steady rather than hiking them. They emphasized the importance of remaining vigilant about upside risks to inflation, particularly in light of data suggesting potential increases in May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Additionally, the AUD/USD pair gained support from a weaker US Dollar (USD). The Greenback has been struggling due to softer economic data from the United States, which has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might reduce interest rates in 2024. However, the recovery in US Treasury yields could limit the downside for the US Dollar.

Market participants are closely watching the US employment reports, expected to be released on Friday. These reports are anticipated to show a slowdown in employment growth for June. Specifically, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to increase by 190,000 new jobs, down from the previous month’s 272,000. Additionally, US Average Hourly Earnings are expected to moderate slightly, with projections indicating a decrease to 3.9% year-over-year from the prior 4.1%.

The combined impact of these factors has created a favorable environment for the Australian Dollar. High domestic inflation and the RBA’s cautious approach to rate cuts suggest a stable or potentially stronger AUD in the near term. Meanwhile, the weakening USD, influenced by the possibility of future Fed rate cuts and mixed economic data, has further bolstered the AUD/USD pair.

As traders await the detailed US employment data, the market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic for the Australian Dollar. The interplay between the RBA’s policy stance and the US economic outlook will continue to be key drivers for the currency pair. Investors will be particularly attentive to any shifts in economic indicators or central bank communications that could influence future rate decisions and currency movements.

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Gold Price Hits Multi-Day High

Gold Price Hits Multi-Day High, Awaits FOMC Minutes for Direction

Gold Price Hits Multi-Day High, Awaits FOMC Minutes for Direction

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are seeing renewed buying interest during the Asian session on Wednesday, building on the previous day’s rebound from the $2,319-$2,318 support zone. Currently, the precious metal is positioned near the top end of its short-term trading range, which has held steady over the past week. Traders are watching for a sustained move beyond the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) pivotal resistance before making further bullish bets.

Recent dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell have reaffirmed expectations that the US central bank might start cutting interest rates at its September meeting. This prospect, combined with concerns over global economic growth, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainty in both the US and Europe, has provided support for gold prices.

Despite these favorable conditions, the upside for gold may be constrained as traders remain cautious, awaiting clearer signals regarding the Fed’s future policy decisions. The focus is now on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, scheduled for later in the US session. These minutes are expected to significantly impact the US Dollar (USD) and, by extension, gold prices.

In the interim, traders will also monitor key US economic data, including the ADP report on private-sector employment and the ISM Services PMI. These reports could offer additional insights into the health of the US economy and influence market sentiment.

Given the current fundamental backdrop, the path of least resistance for XAU/USD appears to be upward. Any significant corrective decline is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity. The market’s attention will remain fixed on the FOMC minutes for further direction, as they will provide crucial information on the Fed’s stance and potential actions.

In summary, gold prices are poised for potential gains, supported by dovish Fed expectations and global uncertainties. However, traders are likely to tread carefully, awaiting the FOMC minutes and key US economic data for more definitive cues. This cautious approach underscores the delicate balance between optimism for rate cuts and the need for concrete policy guidance.

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Australian Dollar Drops on Weak Manufacturing PMI

Australian Dollar Drops on Weak Manufacturing PMI

Australian Dollar Drops on Weak Manufacturing PMI

The Australian Dollar (AUD) may find some relief as the Caixin Manufacturing PMI from China increased to 51.8 in June, surpassing expectations of a decline to 51.2 from May’s 51.7. This unexpected boost in Chinese manufacturing activity is significant for Australia, given the close trade relationship between the two countries. Positive economic changes in China can have a favorable impact on the Australian market, potentially supporting the AUD.

Despite this positive news from China, the AUD faced pressure due to disappointing domestic data. Australia’s June manufacturing PMI contracted at its fastest rate since May 2020, indicating a significant slowdown in the sector. This contraction in manufacturing activity has dampened investor sentiment towards the AUD. Market participants are now eagerly awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) upcoming policy meeting minutes on Tuesday, hoping for insights into the central bank’s future monetary policy direction. Any indications of policy adjustments or economic outlook from the RBA could influence the AUD’s movement.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) has been depreciating due to rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut by 25 basis points in December has increased to nearly 32.0%, up from 28.7% just a week earlier. This shift in expectations is driven by recent economic data suggesting a potential easing of monetary policy by the Fed to support economic growth. The prospect of lower interest rates in the US has weakened the USD, providing some support to the AUD.

In summary, the AUD’s performance is currently influenced by a mix of international and domestic factors. While positive Chinese economic data provides some support, the AUD is under pressure from weak domestic manufacturing data. The upcoming RBA policy meeting minutes will be closely watched for any signals on future monetary policy, which could impact the AUD. Additionally, the USD’s depreciation due to expectations of Fed rate cuts adds another layer of complexity to the AUD’s outlook. Traders will need to monitor these developments closely to navigate the fluctuating market conditions.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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