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USD/JPY Bulls Cautious Near 159.00, Highest Since April Amid Intervention Fears

USD/JPY Bulls Cautious Near 159.00, Highest Since April Amid Intervention Fears

The USD/JPY pair is trading within a narrow range during the Asian session on Friday, consolidating recent gains near the 159.00 mark, the highest level since late April. The pair’s fundamental backdrop supports prospects for further appreciation, although fears of intervention might limit the upside.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) reluctance to commit to near-term interest rate hikes. Data released earlier on Friday showed that Japan’s core-core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, slowed for the ninth consecutive month, easing to a 2.1% yearly rate from 2.4%. This data increases uncertainty about whether the BoJ will raise interest rates in July or later in the year. Additionally, the prevailing bullish sentiment in global equity markets reduces demand for the safe-haven JPY, providing a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) remains strong near the top end of its weekly trading range following a sharp rise in US Treasury bond yields overnight. This has further widened the US-Japan rate differential, putting additional pressure on the JPY and supporting the USD/JPY pair. However, investors remain cautious amid speculations that Japanese authorities might intervene to support the domestic currency. Moreover, increasing bets on an imminent start to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cutting cycle in September could limit further gains for the Greenback and the USD/JPY pair.

Despite these concerns, the USD/JPY pair is on track to end in positive territory for the second consecutive week. Investors are now looking forward to the release of global flash PMI prints for additional market direction. The upcoming US Existing Home Sales data, along with US bond yields and broader market risk sentiment, are also expected to provide short-term trading opportunities on the last day of the week.

Overall, while the USD/JPY pair has seen recent gains and stands at a significant level, the potential for intervention by Japanese authorities and the uncertain path of the BoJ’s monetary policy add layers of complexity to its future movements. Traders will need to stay vigilant to both Japanese economic indicators and broader market trends to navigate the near-term landscape effectively.

GBP/USD Holds Steady at 1.2700, Awaits UK CPI Data

GBP/USD Holds Steady at 1.2700, Awaits UK CPI Data

The GBP/USD pair is struggling to gain any significant traction on Wednesday, trading within a narrow range around the 1.2700 mark during the Asian session. Despite this, spot prices are holding above the one-month low reached last Friday, as traders eagerly anticipate the release of the latest UK consumer inflation figures before committing to any substantial moves.

The upcoming UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to show a slight increase, with monthly inflation ticking up to 0.4% in May from 0.3% in April. However, the annual inflation rate is projected to decelerate to 3.5% from the previous 3.9%. This data will be crucial in shaping market expectations for the British Pound (GBP) and could provide the necessary impetus for the GBP/USD pair to break out of its current trading range.

In addition to the inflation data, market participants are also focusing on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday. The decisions and guidance provided by the BoE will play a significant role in determining the near-term trajectory of the GBP/USD pair. Any indications of future rate hikes or a shift in the bank’s policy stance could lead to increased volatility and directional movement in the currency pair.

On the other side of the Atlantic, subdued price action in the US Dollar (USD) is also influencing the GBP/USD pair. Tuesday’s US Retail Sales report came in softer than expected, signaling potential fatigue among American consumers. This has reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may start cutting interest rates as early as September. Consequently, US Treasury bond yields have declined, undermining the USD and providing a supportive backdrop for the GBP/USD pair.

Despite these supportive factors, the GBP/USD pair has yet to attract significant follow-through buying. This cautious market sentiment is likely due to the looming uncertainty surrounding the key economic data and central bank meetings. Traders appear hesitant to position themselves aggressively before gaining more clarity from the upcoming UK CPI release and BoE meeting.

In summary, while the GBP/USD pair holds steady above its recent lows and is supported by a softer USD and positive expectations from the UK inflation data, the lack of decisive movement suggests that market participants are awaiting further confirmation from key economic events. The UK CPI data and the BoE’s policy decisions will be critical in providing direction for the GBP/USD pair in the coming days. Until then, the pair is likely to remain range-bound, oscillating around the 1.2700 level.

EUR/USD Consolidates Near 1.0700 After Recent Low

EUR/USD Consolidates Near 1.0700 After Recent Low

The EUR/USD pair starts the week on a subdued note, consolidating its recent losses to the lowest level since early May, around the 1.0670-1.0665 region touched on Friday. Currently trading around the 1.0700 mark, the pair appears vulnerable to further declines.

Concerns over a potential snap election in France, which could worsen the fiscal situation in the Eurozone’s second-largest economy, continue to weigh on the shared currency. The right-wing National Front party leads in the polls, and French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned on Friday of a financial crisis risk if either the far right or left won due to their heavy spending plans. This, coupled with a modest uptick in the US Dollar (USD), supports a near-term negative outlook for the EUR/USD pair.

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish surprise at the end of the June policy meeting, indicating a median projection of just one rate cut in 2024, supports elevated US Treasury bond yields. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East bolster the safe-haven Greenback, suggesting a downward trend for the EUR/USD pair. However, signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US keep the door open for a potential interest rate cut by the Fed in September.

This outlook was reinforced by US data released on Friday, showing an unexpected drop in import prices in May, further boosting the domestic inflation outlook. Additionally, a survey by the University of Michigan revealed a sharp deterioration in US consumer sentiment in June, which might prevent USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and help limit losses for the EUR/USD pair. With no relevant US economic data due for release on Monday, the pair remains at the mercy of the USD.

EUR/USD Declines for Third Consecutive Day Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

EUR/USD Declines for Third Consecutive Day Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

The EUR/USD experienced its third consecutive day of losses on Tuesday as market sentiment soured following the European Union parliamentary elections. The elections resulted in a significant shift towards center-right and far-right parties, with European voters showing strong support for these groups. Meanwhile, left-leaning political parties suffered steep losses, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction among EU citizens regarding economic fragility and the current policy strategies of the established European ruling parties.

This political upheaval in Europe has added to the market’s uncertainty. Investors are now anxiously awaiting key economic updates from the United States. On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision are due to be released. These announcements are expected to have a significant impact on market sentiment, which is currently quite volatile.

The US CPI inflation data is anticipated to show a cooling in April, with expectations of a 0.1% month-over-month increase compared to the previous month’s 0.3%. Annualized Core CPI inflation is also expected to tick down slightly to 3.5% year-over-year, from the previous 3.6%. These figures are critical as they will provide insight into the inflationary pressures facing the US economy and inform the Fed’s future policy decisions.

In addition to the CPI data, the Fed’s latest rate call and Monetary Policy Statement are set to draw significant attention. Although the Fed is broadly expected to hold interest rates steady this week, investors are particularly interested in updates to the Fed’s “dot plot” – a summary of interest rate expectations going forward. There is growing concern that the dot plot may shift, reflecting fewer or no rate cuts in 2024, which could have substantial implications for market dynamics.

The possibility of a significant adjustment in the Fed’s rate expectations has added to the market’s anxiety. Investors are increasingly worried that the Fed might signal a more hawkish stance, potentially indicating that the anticipated rate cuts in 2024 might not materialize. This scenario could further pressure the EUR/USD, which has already been affected by the recent political shifts in Europe and ongoing economic uncertainties.

As the market prepares for these pivotal announcements, the EUR/USD will likely remain under scrutiny. The combination of political instability in the EU and critical economic updates from the US sets the stage for continued volatility. Investors will be closely monitoring the outcomes of Wednesday’s data releases and the Fed’s communications for any indications of future policy directions.

GBP/USD Defensive Below 1.2750 Amid Stronger USD

GBP/USD Defensive Below 1.2750 Amid Stronger USD

During the early Asian trading hours on Monday, the GBP/USD pair recovered some of its lost ground, hovering around 1.2725. However, the upside for GBP/USD might be limited due to lower expectations of US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year, following stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. Investors are now turning their attention to the UK employment data for May, which is scheduled for release on Tuesday. Additionally, key events on the US economic calendar this week include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which will be closely watched by the market.

On Friday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed a substantial increase of 272,000 jobs in May, up from a 165,000 rise in April and significantly above the market consensus of 185,000. Despite this strong job growth, the Unemployment Rate edged up to 4.0% in May from 3.9% in April. Average Hourly Earnings also showed an impressive year-over-year increase of 4.1% in May, revised up from 3.9% in April, and surpassing the estimated 3.9%. These figures, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, highlight the robustness of the US labor market.

The solid employment data has led to a reassessment of future monetary policy moves by the Federal Reserve. The likelihood of a rate cut before September has diminished, with futures traders seeing almost no chance of such a move, according to data from CME Group. This higher-for-longer rate outlook is expected to provide support for the US Dollar (USD) in the near term.In contrast, the focus in the UK will be on the employment data set to be released on Tuesday. This includes the Claimant Count Change, Employment Change, and Average Earnings data. Any indication of increased layoffs could prompt expectations of early rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE), which would likely weaken the Pound Sterling (GBP).

The market’s attention is also on the upcoming US CPI data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The CPI data will offer insights into the inflationary pressures in the US economy, while the Fed’s decision will provide guidance on the future path of interest rates. These events are crucial for the USD’s performance and, by extension, the GBP/USD pair’s movement.Overall, while the GBP/USD pair has shown some recovery, its upside potential may be constrained by the current economic data and central bank policies. Investors will be closely monitoring the UK employment report and the US CPI and Fed announcements for further direction.

USD/CAD Holds Above Mid-1.3600s Ahead of US NFP

USD/CAD Holds Above Mid-1.3600s Ahead of US NFP

The USD/CAD pair is showing resilience below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), but it seems to struggle to attract any significant buyers during the Asian session on Friday. Currently, spot prices trade with a mild positive bias, hovering around the 1.3670 area. Traders are keenly awaiting the release of the US monthly employment details before making fresh directional bets.

The much-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to reveal that the US economy added 185,000 jobs in May, up from 175,000 in the previous month. Additionally, the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 3.9%. This data, along with Average Hourly Earnings, will play a crucial role in shaping the inflation outlook and the Federal Reserve’s future policy decisions. Consequently, this will influence the demand for the US Dollar (USD) and provide fresh directional impetus to the USD/CAD pair.

As the market heads into this key data risk, participants have been pricing in a higher probability that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September due to signs of a slowdown in the US economy. This expectation has kept US Treasury bond yields and the USD under pressure. Moreover, this week’s rebound in Crude Oil prices has supported the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD), further capping the USD/CAD pair’s upside.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) recently lowered its benchmark rate for the first time in four years, from a more than two-decade high, expressing concerns about slowing economic growth. The central bank also acknowledged improvements in underlying inflation, fueling speculations about another rate cut next month. This development could limit the Canadian Dollar’s gains and act as a supportive factor for the USD/CAD pair.

Given the mixed fundamental backdrop, aggressive traders should exercise caution, as the USD/CAD pair is more likely to continue its range-bound price action on the last trading day of the week. Despite this, spot prices remain on track to register modest weekly gains, although they stay within a familiar range held since early May.

In summary, the USD/CAD pair remains resilient below the 200-hour SMA but struggles to attract substantial buyers ahead of the US NFP report. The anticipated employment data will significantly influence USD demand and the pair’s direction. While market participants expect a Fed rate cut in September, supporting the CAD, the BoC’s recent rate cut and potential for another could cap the CAD’s upside, providing a mixed outlook for the USD/CAD pair. As such, the pair is likely to maintain its range-bound movement, with modest gains expected for the week.

Japanese Yen Weakens as Investors Await Key US Data

Japanese Yen Weakens as Investors Await Key US Data

On Wednesday, the Japanese Yen (JPY) edged lower as investors exercised caution ahead of crucial US economic data releases, including the US ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI reports. Market participants are also looking ahead to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, set to be released on Friday, which could further influence the currency markets.

The JPY is under pressure due to the interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, which favors the US Dollar (USD) over the Yen. The USD/JPY pair is buoyed by this rate disparity, which makes the USD more attractive to investors. However, the potential for significant gains in the USD/JPY pair is tempered by recent positive economic data from Japan.

On Wednesday, the Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI was revised upwards to 53.8 in May, from an initial reading of 53.6. Although this revision indicates an improvement, it still falls short of April’s eight-month peak of 54.3, suggesting the slowest growth in the Japanese service sector since February. 

Additionally, Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings surged by 2.1% year-on-year in April, surpassing forecasts of a 1.7% increase and marking the highest growth rate since June of the previous year. These stronger-than-expected figures offer some support to the JPY and could limit the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six major currencies, has edged higher, bolstered by rising US Treasury yields. However, the weaker US Manufacturing PMI for May has sparked speculation about a potential rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This softer-than-expected manufacturing data has led traders to price in nearly 64.9% odds of a Fed rate cut of at least 25 basis points by September, a notable increase from 46.3% just a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The upcoming US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI reports are expected to provide further insights into the health of the US economy. Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce the USD’s strength and put additional pressure on the JPY. Conversely, weaker data could heighten expectations for a Fed rate cut, potentially providing some relief to the Yen.

In conclusion, while the Japanese Yen is facing downward pressure due to the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, recent positive economic data from Japan and the potential for a Fed rate cut could influence the USD/JPY pair’s movements in the coming days. Investors will be closely monitoring the upcoming US economic data releases and the Nonfarm Payrolls report for further direction.

US stock market halted its losing trend & inflation to moderate

US stock market halted its losing trend & inflation to moderate

The NASDAQ, which gained 3.3 percent, led all three US benchmarks to a positive finish on Friday, bringing the stock market’s seven-week losing streak to an end. The S&P 500 gained 2.5 percent, while the Dow Jones gained 1.8 percent, with 29 of the 30 members posting increases. The Dow gained 6.2 percent this week, the S&P 500 climbed 6.6 percent, and the NASDAQ surged 6.8% higher.

The rise on Friday was fueled by a long-awaited, but predictable (in my opinion) reduction in inflation. After fuel costs declined during the month, core inflation in the United States climbed by only 0.2 percent in April, the smallest pace since November 2020. In addition, the 12-month rate fell from 6.6 percent to 6.3 percent.

While the inflation rate is favorable, consumer morale is at a 10-year low as a result of rising mortgage rates, rising fuel prices, and a slowing economy.

Two companies that stand out: Costco and Dell

Even if same-store sales declined, Costco was a rare retail winner, rising 1% after disclosing revenue that exceeded its own projections by $1 billion.

Dell increased its revenue by 13% in the first quarter, owing to a return to the office and lower-than-expected cost hikes.

Improving China

However, all eyes were on China, with Baidu and Alibaba both surging more than 12% after reporting stronger advertising revenue and sales than expected.

When the market starts this morning, the strong bullish lead is expected to send the S&P/ASX 200 higher. Check out my ASX 200 morning report for a round-up of the latest headlines. If you’re anything like me, you may believe that now is a wonderful moment to have money “waiting on the sidelines.”

Stocks in the US are up for the second day in a row

Stocks in the US are up for the second day in a row

Strong retailer numbers mixed with investor bargain-hunting to generate a second straight bullish session on Wall Street on Thursday. Following Wednesday’s positive day, major indices continued to rise, achieving a rare back-to-back gain in 2022. Aside from the positive retailer results, initiatives by Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways to raise their revenue predictions, another evidence of robust consumer behavior, added to the momentum.

Analyst after the S&P 500 plummeted for seven weeks in a row, Patrick O’Hare believes the rally is unavoidable. He explained, “The market had been substantially sold… and was due for a bounce.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 500 points, or 1.6 percent, to 32,637.19 at the end of the session.

The broad-based S&P 500 rose 2% to 4,057.84, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index rose 2.7 percent to 11,740.65. Dollar General and Dollar Tree both saw their stock rise 14% and 21.9 percent, respectively, after posting better-than-expected earnings. Macy’s, up 19.3%, and Williams-Sonoma, up 12.8%, were two other notable stores to announce gains.

Broadcom gained 3.6 percent after announcing a $61 billion deal to buy cloud computing company VMware, which gained 3%. Despite decreasing its revenue forecast, another semiconductor manufacturer, Nvidia, rose 5.2 percent throughout the day.

US stock market closes higher as US Fed minutes were positive

US stock market closes higher as US Fed minutes were positive

Wall Street ended the day higher on Wednesday, boosted by minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent monetary policy meeting, which revealed that officials agreed that the US economy was quite robust as they struggled to control inflation without sparking a recession.

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s May meeting, which resulted in a 50-basis-point hike in the Fed funds target rate – the largest increase in 22 years – revealed that the majority of the committee’s members believed that more rate hikes would “likely be appropriate” at the committee’s upcoming June and July meetings.

“Consensus is a positive thing,” said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. “There isn’t much doubt about what needs to be done in the short term.” “By the time (the Fed) comes to September, they’ll have plenty of economic data to make their decision from there,” Mayfield added.

Early in the day, Wall street the three major U.S. market indexes gyrated amid rising concerns arising from business and consumer surveys, economic statistics, and corporate earnings reports, all of which pointed to a cooling American economy – even as the Fed prepares to slam the brakes on decades-high inflation.

Fears that the Fed’s excessively aggressive interest rate hikes may send the economy into recession, despite evidence that inflation peaked in March, have fanned such fears. Mayfield added, “There’s some validity to the argument that inflation is doing (the Fed’s) job for them.” “A cooling is already taking place, and financial conditions have tightened in the previous month as a result of dollar strength and equity market downturn.”

The Commerce Department is expected to announce its second estimate of first-quarter GDP on Thursday, with economists anticipating a slightly shallower fall than the 1.4 percent quarterly annualized drop previously reported. On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report will be released, which will provide more information about consumer spending and whether inflation peaked in March, as other signs imply.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 191.66 points, or 0.6 percent, to 32,120.28, the S&P 500 increased by 37.25 points, or 0.95 percent, to 3,978.73, and the NASDAQ Composite increased by 170.29 points, or 1.51 percent, to 11,434.74. Nine of the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors increased, with consumer discretionary stocks leading the way with a 2.8 percent rise.

Amazon.com Inc and Tesla Inc gave the S&P 500 and NASDAQ the biggest boosts, climbing 2.6 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively. Nordstrom Inc, a department store operator, rose 14.0 percent following its bullish annual profit and growth forecasts. Wendy’s stock rose 9.8% after a regulatory filing revealed that shareholder Nelson Peltz was mulling a takeover bid.

Nvidia Corp’s stock dropped more than 8% in after-hours trading after the company’s second-quarter sales projection fell short of forecasts. On the NYSE, advancers exceeded decliners by a 3.56-to-1 ratio; on the NASDAQ, advancers outpaced decliners by a 2.22-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 added three new 52-week highs and 32 new lows, while the NASDAQ Composite added 23 highs and 255 lows. On U.S. exchanges, volume was 11.19 billion shares, compared to a total session average of 13.27 billion shares over the previous 20 trading days.

Fears of slower growth in U.S.A have caused stock markets to tumble

Fears of slower growth in U.S.A have caused stock markets to tumble

After statements from social media company Snap and poor economic data raised concern that the US economy was about to decline dramatically, investors sold stocks on Tuesday and bet on a less aggressive Federal Reserve policy. On Tuesday, the NASDAQ Composite, which is dominated by large US technology companies, sank 2.3 percent.

The S&P 500 index, which monitors the fortunes of the largest publicly traded firms, fell 0.8 percent. However, by the time the bell rang, both indices had retreated off early-session lows. The average stock in the broad-based Russell 3000 is down more than 40% from previous highs this year, as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in an attempt to contain inflation. Investors are concerned that the US economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic may be diminishing, based on recent statistics showing weaker growth.

Instead of riskier assets, money managers have snatched up US government debt as a safe haven. The 10-year Treasury yield, which swings in lockstep with economic growth and interest rate forecasts, plummeted 0.09 percentage points to 2.76 percent on Tuesday, marking its greatest one-day gain since late April. Snap said late Monday that the “macroeconomic environment has deteriorated farther and faster than anticipated” since it released guidance in April, making investors nervous. The company predicted that sales and profitability for the current quarter would fall short of forecasts. Snap’s stock dropped 43% on Tuesday.

Snap mentioned, among other things, the problems created by increasing inflation, higher borrowing rates, supply chain snafus, and the situation in Ukraine. Because the announcement was unexpected, it had a particularly large impact on Snap’s stock price and the market as a whole. “Certainly, a social media company’s stern warning of ‘macro deterioration’ just a month after giving quarterly guidance presses all the key ‘leading indication’ buttons,” Citi strategist Edward Acton wrote. On Tuesday, Google parent Alphabet fell 5%, while Facebook owner Meta fell 8%, thanks to a sell-off in Snap. This year, the NASDAQ has lost 28% of its value.

Last week, US consumer bellwethers Target and Walmart offered similarly pessimistic forecasts. The grim outlook was worsened by Tuesday’s weak GDP figures. New house sales plummeted nearly 17% in April, according to the US Census Bureau, despite an increase in the number of new homes for sale. According to Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, the data “certainly indicates to a housing market that has shifted.” In May, the S&P purchasing managers’ index showed that business activity in the United States and the United Kingdom slowed. Traders also speculated that the Fed will be less active in raising interest rates than projected earlier this year due to these economic obstacles.

The two-year yield, which is influenced by interest rate forecasts, fell 0.14 percentage point to 2.49 percent. “The Fed wants the economy to slow down.”The economy is slowing down,” said Andrew Brenner, NatAlliance Securities’ head of international fixed income. “The Fed might be able to achieve something without raising rates as much as they might have anticipated.” Data from Europe and Asia only added to investors’ concerns. According to a study accompanying S&P Global’s May flash purchasing managers’ index for the major eurozone economy, German businesses were “increasing their charges for goods and services to cover the greater cost of energy, fuel, raw materials, and employees.”

According to a comparable PMI survey for Japan, manufacturing activity is rising at its weakest pace in three months, which its compilers blame on “supply chain interruptions” caused by “economic sanctions imposed on Russia” and Chinese lockdown measures. The Stoxx 600 index in Europe, which has lost more than a tenth of its value this year, dropped 1.1 percent. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell 1.8 percent, while the Nikkei in Tokyo fell 0.9 percent.

Big tech and banks are driving Wall Street higher; the Dow is up 2%

Big tech and banks are driving Wall Street higher; the Dow is up 2%

On Monday, US equities finished higher as bank gains and a resurgence in market-leading tech companies fueled a broad-based rally following Wall Street’s largest weekly fall since the dotcom bust more than two decades ago. All three major US market indexes rose between 1.6 and 2.0 percent, with resurgent megacap tech titans Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp providing the biggest boost.

Interest rate-sensitive banks rose 5.1 percent after JPMorgan Chase & Co, the largest U.S. lender, boosted its current year interest income outlook. The stock of JPMorgan Chase increased by 6.2 percent. “It appears to be more of a relief rally than a fundamental shift in market attitude,” said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors in New York. “Investors as a group believe another shoe is about to drop, and they are probably correct in the short run.” On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 18.7% from its record closing high set on Jan. 3. If the benchmark index closes 20% or more below that high, it will confirm that the market has been in a downtrend since then.

Concerns over consistently rising inflation and strong moves by the Federal Reserve to contain it have roiled markets in recent weeks, as the global economy deals with the consequences from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Today, it appears the market is less concerned about inflation and the Fed’s ability to orchestrate a smooth landing,” said Chuck Carlson, president and CEO of Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. Carlson said that “the bias is still to the downside.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 618.34 points, or 1.98 percent, to 31,880.24, the S&P 500 increased by 72.39 points, or 1.86 percent, to 3,973.75, and the NASDAQ Composite increased by 180.66 points, or 1.59 percent, to 11,535.28. On Wednesday, the Fed will disclose minutes from its most recent policy meeting, giving investors a glimpse into its thinking. This week’s economic statistics may provide more evidence that inflation peaked in March, as well as if high prices have harmed consumer purchasing power.

The S&P 500’s 11 major sectors all closed the session in the green, with financials leading the way with a 3.2 percent gain. The first-quarter reporting season is virtually over, with 474 of the S&P 500 businesses having released results. According to Refinitiv, 78 percent of them exceeded expectations. According to Refinitiv, current quarter pre-announcements are typically pessimistic, with 59 negative estimates and 32 positive, compared to 37 negative and 52 positive in the year-ago quarter.

VMWare Inc’s stock jumped 24.8 percent on news that chipmaker Broadcom Inc was in talks to buy the cloud service provider over the weekend. Broadcom’s stock fell 3.1 percent. Didi Global’s U.S.-listed shares fell 4.0 percent after shareholders voted to de-list the Chinese ride-hailing app from the New York Stock Exchange.

On the NYSE, advancers outnumbered decliners by a 2.43-to-1 ratio; on the NASDAQ, advancers outnumbered decliners by a 1.44-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 added one new 52-week high and 31 new lows, while the NASDAQ Composite added 27 highs and 142 lows. The volume on US exchanges was 10.93 billion shares, down from the average of 13.36 billion during the previous 20 trading days.

Stocks in the United States finish with a mixed performance

Stocks in the United States finish with a mixed performance

 

On Friday, May 20, 2022, the US stock market ended the day on a mixed note, with a lack of important US economic data putting some investors on the sidelines and concerns about the potential economic consequences from the Federal Reserve’s efforts to suppress inflation rising to the surface. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index increased 8.77 points, or 0.03 percent, to 31,261.90 at the close of trading. The S&P 500 index rose 0.57 points, or 0.01 percent, to 3,901.36.

The NASDAQ Composite Index, which is heavily weighted in technology, fell 33.88 points, or 0.3 percent, to 11,354.62. The S&P 500 lost 2.9 percent this week, the Dow lost 3%, and the NASDAQ lost 3.8 percent. The stock market in the United States has been battered this year by fears of increasing inflation and interest rates, with warnings from Walmart Inc. and other retailers this week adding to concerns about the economy.

Tesla’s stock dropped 6.4 percent after CEO Elon Musk called charges in a news story that he sexually assaulted a flight attendant on a private jet in 2016 “utterly untrue.” Ross Stores’ stock dropped 22.5 percent after the bargain clothes retailer lowered its sales and earnings estimates for 2022. Deere & Company’s stock plunged 14% after the heavy equipment manufacturer reported lower-than-expected quarterly revenue.

Stocks end the day higher as indexes recover from their recent sell-off

Stocks end the day higher as indexes recover from their recent sell-off

Stocks in the United States rose on Tuesday, helped by a rise in technology companies, as all three indexes recovered after heavy selling last week sparked by concerns about persistently rising prices and the possibility of an economic downturn. Investors mostly ignored Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish statements at a Wall Street Journal conference on Tuesday, which suggested the central bank was willing to boost rates above neutral if necessary to cool rising prices.

The S&P 500 increased by 2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 400 points. As technology companies recovered from a negative day on Monday, the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.8 percent. The developments follow six weeks of losses for the S&P 500, the index’s longest losing streak in over a decade, and seven weeks of losses for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the index’s longest losing streak since 2001.

Walmart (WMT) shares fell 11.38 percent to $131.39 in other markets after the megastore missed earnings expectations. During intraday trade, the store dropped as much as 11.75 percent, marking its worst day since 1980. During the 1987 stock market meltdown, Walmart’s shares dropped 11.68 percent. Retail sales rose 0.9 percent in April, indicating that consumer spending is still holding up despite stubbornly rising inflation.

In a report, Harris Financial Group managing partner Jamie Cox said, “The urge to spend remains high among US consumers.” “Americans have broken free from COVID’s bonds and are not going back. Numbers like this put into question any predictions of a US recession in 2022.”

Uncertainty about the timing and extent of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle has fueled market pressure that has lasted all year. So far in 2022, the S&P 500 is nearly 15% below its all-time high on Jan. 3, the Dow is down around 11%, and the NASDAQ has entered a bear market – well over 20% below its record closing price in November.

Citi Private Bank Chief Investment Officer David Bailin told Yahoo Finance, “Markets lead the economy.” “The fact that markets are currently lower suggests that the consumer and the global economy are both slowing. “According to Comerica Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer John Lynch, equity markets have suffered “serious technical damage” in recent months, with the S&P 500 dipping below the crucial 4,000 level last Monday before touching bear market levels of 3,850 last Thursday.

“Curiously, statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating the potential of economic hardship in order to accomplish the central bank’s goals of lower inflation may have been the spark for the S&P 500’s rise that began Thursday afternoon and lasted until Friday’s closing,” Lynch said. “However, investors should be aware that the serious technical damage sustained in recent months will take more than a few good days to restore.” Investors will have more Fed speak to think over in the coming days, as additional central bank officials are scheduled to speak through Friday.

In an emailed message, Independent Advisor Alliance Chief Investment Officer Chris Zaccarelli wrote, “The unfortunate truth is that the Fed will need to raise rates more rapidly and to a greater level than many were hoped.” “This year, there will be at least four 50 basis point rate hikes, not three or less, and we will remain careful with risk assets.”

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

EUR/USD Nears 1.0550 but Faces Pressure Amid Safe-Haven Demand

EUR/USD Nears 1.0550 but Faces Pressure Amid Safe-Haven Demand

The EUR/USD pair has edged higher, trading around 1.0550 during Thursday’s Asian session, following losses in the previous session. However, upside momentum remains limited as safe-haven flows gain strength due to escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

According to Reuters, Ukraine deployed British Storm Shadow cruise missiles in a strike against Russia on Wednesday, escalating the conflict and drawing warnings from Moscow. Russian officials have cautioned that using Western weapons to target Russian territory far from the border could significantly heighten the scale of the conflict.

On the monetary policy front, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras noted that the Eurozone is approaching its 2% inflation target. Speaking to Bloomberg, Stournaras emphasized the importance of ensuring policymakers sustain progress toward this goal. Meanwhile, the EU Financial Stability Review highlighted growing vulnerabilities due to geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainties, and global trade disputes, which increase the risk of economic shocks.

Since June, the ECB has enacted three rate cuts to address slowing growth, as inflation edges closer to target levels. However, weaker economic prospects have led to downward revisions in growth forecasts. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, with lower odds of a more aggressive reduction.

In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) has gained support from cautious tones expressed by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Boston Fed President Susan Collins advocated for a measured approach to interest rate adjustments to avoid policy missteps. Similarly, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman emphasized that inflation remains persistently high and urged careful consideration in future policy moves.

The EUR/USD pair remains caught between diverging monetary policy expectations and the heightened influence of geopolitical risks.

USD/CAD Holds Near One-Week Low, Trades Range-Bound Above Mid-1.3900s

USD/CAD Holds Near One-Week Low, Trades Range-Bound Above Mid-1.3900s

The USD/CAD pair has found support near the mid-1.3900s, marking a one-week low during Wednesday’s Asian session. However, the pair struggles to gain upward momentum, pausing this week’s pullback from its highest level since May 2020. Mixed fundamental signals keep bullish traders cautious.

Canadian Inflation and BoC Outlook
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose more than expected to 2.0% in October, prompting a recalibration of market expectations for a significant rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in December. This has provided some support for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), offsetting pressure on the USD/CAD pair. However, subdued crude oil prices continue to cap the Loonie’s gains, limiting its appreciation.

Crude Oil Dynamics
While fears of supply disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict persist, crude oil prices remain constrained by signs of increased U.S. stockpiles. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a larger-than-expected build of 4.75 million barrels in U.S. inventories last week, indicating ample supply and dampening oil’s recent recovery from a two-month low.

U.S. Dollar and Treasury Yields
On the U.S. side, a resurgence in dip-buying for the U.S. Dollar (USD) offers support to the USD/CAD pair. Expectations that U.S. fiscal policies under President-elect Donald Trump could stimulate economic growth and fuel inflation have bolstered U.S. Treasury yields, enhancing USD demand. This dynamic limits the pair’s downside potential.

Upcoming Market Catalysts
Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members for insights into the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. Additionally, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official crude oil inventory data, which could impact oil prices and generate near-term trading opportunities for the USD/CAD pair.

In the absence of clear directional drivers, the USD/CAD pair is likely to remain range-bound in the short term, with traders focusing on incoming data and policy signals for further cues.

EUR/USD Hovers Near 1.0600 as US Dollar Retreats on Profit-Taking

EUR/USD Hovers Near 1.0600 as US Dollar Retreats on Profit-Taking

The EUR/USD pair remains steady with a positive bias around the 1.0600 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair’s upward momentum appears supported by a softer US Dollar (USD), which is undergoing profit-taking after its recent rally.

Despite the USD’s pullback, its downside remains limited due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Powell emphasized the economy’s resilience, a robust labor market, and persistent inflation pressures, cautioning that the Fed sees no urgency to cut interest rates. Market participants are now awaiting further insights from Fed officials later this week regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

The USD could also regain strength as investors expect the incoming Trump administration to implement tax cuts and higher tariffs—policies that may drive inflation, potentially slowing the pace of Fed rate cuts.

On the European side, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde highlighted structural challenges in the region. Speaking on Monday, Lagarde called for a consolidation of resources in areas such as defense and climate, citing stagnating productivity growth and increasing global fragmentation into competitive blocs. She noted that Europe lags behind the US and China in innovation and productivity, with barriers such as a fragmented digital market and insufficient venture capital hindering technological progress.

Looking ahead, traders are focused on key economic data. The Eurozone’s October Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is due for release on Tuesday, followed by US Building Permits and Housing Starts data during the North American session. These reports could provide further direction for EUR/USD in the near term.

EUR/USD Holds Steady Ahead of ECB Lagarde’s Speech

EUR/USD Holds Steady Ahead of ECB Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair remains stable, trading slightly above the psychological support level of 1.0500 at the start of the week. The currency pair consolidates as the US Dollar (USD) rally pauses after hitting a fresh annual high. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against six major currencies, is seeking fresh catalysts to sustain its upward momentum above the key resistance level of 107.00.

Analyst Outlook on the USD

Capital Economics analysts noted, “While a period of consolidation looks likely in the near term, we have revised up our forecasts for the US Dollar and now project a further 5% appreciation by the end of 2025.” They attribute this outlook to expectations that President-elect Donald Trump will advance his proposed tariff policies and that the U.S. economy will continue to outperform its major counterparts.

Policy Uncertainty and Fed Perspective

Investors are closely monitoring how Trump’s policy agenda might influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary decisions, particularly for the December meeting and beyond. However, Fed officials have refrained from speculating on the economic implications of these policies. Speaking at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked, “It’s too early to reach judgments here. We don’t really know what policies will be put in place.”

On the interest rate outlook, Powell stated that the economy is not signaling an urgent need for aggressive rate cuts. He reiterated that inflation is moving sustainably toward the Fed’s 2% target, aligning with their neutral rate goals.

Key Data to Watch This Week

Market participants will focus on the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for November, set to be released on Thursday. This report will provide insights into the current state of private business activity and gauge the impact of Trump’s election victory on business sentiment.

EUR/USD Nears 1.0550 After Rebounding from Yearly Lows

EUR/USD Nears 1.0550 After Rebounding from Yearly Lows

The EUR/USD pair has broken its five-day losing streak, trading close to 1.0540 during the Asian session on Friday. This recovery appears to stem from a pullback in the US Dollar (USD) following recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell noted that the US economy has shown “remarkable resilience,” providing the Fed with the flexibility to gradually reduce interest rates.

In October, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.4% year-over-year, up from a revised 1.9% in September (initially 1.8%) and slightly above market expectations of 2.3%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose by 3.1% YoY, modestly surpassing the anticipated 3.0%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, has slipped from its yearly peak of 107.06 reached on Thursday, partly due to a slowdown in risk trades. At present, the DXY is around 106.80.

On the European front, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel emphasized on Thursday that interest rate changes should remain the ECB’s primary policy instrument, with bond purchases and forward guidance used more selectively.

Minutes from the ECB’s October Monetary Policy Meeting reveal a growing openness to potential rate cuts. However, ECB officials remain cautious about inflationary pressures within the Eurozone, particularly due to strong wage growth and lagging labor productivity. The ECB underscored the importance of further data before making any policy adjustments.

EUR/USD Approaches Yearly Lows Near 1.0550 Ahead of Eurozone Q3 GDP and US PPI Reports

EUR/USD Approaches Yearly Lows Near 1.0550 Ahead of Eurozone Q3 GDP and US PPI Reports

EUR/USD continues its downward trend for the fifth consecutive day, trading near 1.0550 during Thursday’s Asian session, hitting new yearly lows. The pair’s decline is primarily driven by the strengthening US Dollar (USD), fueled by “Trump trades.”

Investors are now awaiting Thursday’s release of the Eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the third quarter. The quarter-over-quarter GDP is expected to confirm a preliminary growth rate of 0.4%, while year-over-year growth is projected at a modest 0.9%, reflecting the region’s subdued economic activity.

Attention will also turn to European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, who is scheduled to speak at the Choiseul Sovereignty Awards 2024 ceremony in Paris. Across the Atlantic, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion titled “Global Perspectives,” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major peers, holds steady around 106.60, its highest level since November 2023, bolstered by rising US Treasury yields. Currently, the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields stand at 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively.

In recent data, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-over-year in October, aligning with market expectations after a 2.4% increase in the prior month. Monthly CPI remained steady at 0.2% as forecasted, while core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, met expectations, holding at 0.3% MoM and 3.3% on an annual basis.

EUR/USD Drops Near 1.0600 Ahead of US Inflation Data

EUR/USD Drops Near 1.0600 Ahead of US Inflation Data

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trajectory on Wednesday, hovering just above the 1.0600 mark during Asian trading. This marks the fourth consecutive day of losses for the Euro, with downward momentum driven largely by a strengthening US Dollar (USD).

The recent pressure on the EUR/USD is primarily due to the resilience of the USD. Anticipation around US fiscal policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump—such as increased government spending and incentives for investment—could boost economic activity and labor demand. However, this economic growth may also heighten inflation risks.

On Tuesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed confidence in the Federal Reserve’s efforts to combat transitory inflation. However, he noted that it is still too soon to declare complete success and indicated that the Fed would wait for more clarity on Trump’s policies before estimating their economic impact.

Market participants are now looking to Wednesday’s US inflation data for additional direction on policy. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to increase by 2.6% year-over-year in October, while the core CPI is expected to rise by 3.3%.

Attention will then shift to the EU’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report on Thursday, where third-quarter GDP growth is expected to confirm a preliminary estimate of 0.4% QoQ. The year-over-year GDP growth forecast is a modest 0.9% for Q3, underscoring weak economic performance in the region.

A recent study from the London School of Economics and Political Science suggests that implementing a 10% tariff on all imported goods, as Trump has advocated, could reduce the EU’s GDP by 0.1%. This potential slowdown may add further pressure on the Euro relative to the USD.

USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, keeping the USD/JPY pair firm around the 147.00 mark during the Asian session. A stronger US Dollar and persistent concerns over rising trade tensions are weighing heavily on the Yen, as markets brace for the impact of US tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1. 

Former US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese imports, coupled with the threat of retaliatory action, has sparked renewed fears over Japan’s economic resilience. The country’s Q1 GDP contracted, real wages in May dropped at their steepest pace in nearly two years, and political uncertainty is rising ahead of the July 20 House of Councillors election. Recent polls suggest the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may struggle to retain its majority, further dampening investor confidence. 

These developments have led traders to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. The combination of domestic headwinds and external pressure is weakening the JPY, while the US Dollar continues to gain on expectations that rising tariffs will stoke inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. 

The Fed’s June decision to hold interest rates steady, along with a strong US jobs report, has reinforced the belief that rate cuts may be delayed until at least October. The FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, will be closely watched for insights into the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets currently anticipate up to 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end. 

Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds 

Technically, USD/JPY’s break and close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) — for the first time since February — signals potential for further gains. Positive momentum on the daily chart supports a move toward the 147.60–147.65 resistance area, with the 148.00 handle, a key June high, in sight. 

On the downside, immediate support lies near 146.50, with the 100-day SMA just below 146.00 acting as a critical pivot. A decisive break below this level could shift momentum in favor of bears, opening room for deeper losses. 

NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5700 on weaker US PMI data

During the early Asian session on Thursday, the NZD/USD pair was trading slightly higher at 0.5690. The Greenback falls against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as US economic data disappoints. Investors will keenly monitor developments in the rekindled trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. 

The weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) could weigh on the Greenback and generate a tailwind for the pair. The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3.

On the other hand, New Zealand’s fourth-quarter employment report will put the RBNZ on pace to decrease the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% this month. Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday that the country’s unemployment rate increased to 5.1% in Q4, up from 4.8% the previous quarter. This result was a four-year high and exceeded the 25-year average of 4.8%. Rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may decrease interest rates may further impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

“In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% at the February 19 meeting and the policy rate to through around 3.00% over the next 12 months. Bottom line: NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD,” noted Société Générale’s FX analysts. 

On Tuesday, the finance ministry in China unveiled a package of tariffs on various US products such as crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos in a sharp response to an announcement made by US President Donald Trump imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Further, China served notice to several companies including Google for potential sanctions in response to Trump’s tariffs. Any sign of uncertainty or a rising trade war tension may see the China-proxy Kiwi being dragged lower, as China remains one of the major trading partners to New Zealand.

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses Against USD; Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

The Japanese yen (JPY) cut some of its intraday losses against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, bringing the USD/JPY pair back below the mid-155.00s during the early European session. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions showed conversations about the possibility of further hikes in interest rates. Furthermore, Tokyo’s core inflation increased at the quickest annual rate in nearly a year, raising expectations of further policy tightening by the BoJ, which supports the JPY.

Beyond monetary policy, narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economies, including the US, alongside a broader risk-off sentiment, provide additional support to the safe-haven JPY. However, concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s newly announced trade tariffs limit the yen’s upside. Meanwhile, the USD remains broadly strong, allowing the USD/JPY pair to maintain its positive momentum for a second consecutive day, ahead of the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI report.

Yen Gains Traction Amid BoJ Rate Hike Bets and Trade War Fears

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, effective Tuesday.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, and China’s foreign ministry all replied quickly, indicating probable retaliation. The US Dollar continues to climb, approaching a two-year high last hit in January, supporting the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

The Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions, released on Monday, showed that policymakers are thinking about additional rate hikes, though this has failed to appreciably lift the JPY.

Board members of the Bank of Japan stressed the need of continuing to raise interest rates if economic conditions and inflation remain stable.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the government is closely monitoring the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the yen amid concerns over potential economic fallout.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reiterated Japan’s commitment to achieving the BoJ’s 2% inflation target while implementing measures to offset rising living costs.

The US-Japan yield spread remains near a multi-week low, which, coupled with risk aversion, could help stabilize the yen in the near term.

Investors now turn their focus to key US economic data, starting with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Near 156.25; Bears in Control Below This Level

From a technical standpoint, last week’s strong rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally and the subsequent upside move favor bullish traders. However, additional gains beyond 156.00 may encounter resistance near last week’s swing high at 156.25. A sustained break above this level could spark a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards:

  • 156.70-156.75 resistance
  • 157.00 psychological mark
  • 157.60 horizontal barrier
  • Potential extension towards 158.00, with an ultimate target at the 158.85-158.90 multi-month high from January 10

Conversely, on the downside:-

  • 155.00 serves as immediate support
  • Below this, watch for key levels at 154.55-154.50 and 154.00
  • A break below the 153.70 January low could accelerate the decline towards 153.30 and eventually 153.00

While the JPY is exhibiting some resilience, the overall trend remains unpredictable, with market participants intently watching economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

Australian Dollar Slides Amid Rising Odds of RBA Rate Cuts, Fed Decision in Focus

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak for a third consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD), weighed down by softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, matching the previous quarter but missing the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI eased to 2.4% from 2.8% in Q3, below the market forecast of 2.5%. Despite December’s monthly CPI ticking up to 2.5% YoY, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2%-3% target range. Meanwhile, the RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI slowed to 3.2% YoY, its weakest pace in three years, slightly under the anticipated 3.3%.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed confidence that “the worst of the inflation challenge is behind us” and that a “soft landing” is increasingly likely. The cooling inflation strengthens the case for an RBA rate cut in February. The central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing the need for inflation to “sustainably” return to target before considering a rate reduction.

AUD Pressured by Risk Aversion, Trump’s Tariff Threats

The AUD faces additional headwinds from risk-off sentiment following tariff threats by former US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of key commodities, including computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to boost US manufacturing.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm around 108.00 as traders turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, indicate near-certainty that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for guidance on future policy shifts.

Concerns over the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies add another layer of uncertainty. US Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino noted, “A number of White House proposals appear inflationary, which could keep the Fed in check.” Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed universal tariffs on US imports starting at 2.5%, with Trump reportedly favoring even higher rates.

China’s Economic Slowdown Adds Pressure on AUD

The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to China’s economic struggles. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1, missing expectations, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.2 from 52.2. As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s weak data weighs heavily on the AUD.

Despite China’s recent stimulus measures, including a $7.25 billion investment in index products and long-term stock investments, concerns persist. Industrial profits fell 3.3% YoY in 2024, marking a third consecutive year of contraction, driven by weak demand, deflationary pressures, and a prolonged property sector slump.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Turns Bearish Below 0.6250

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6230 on Wednesday after breaking below the ascending channel on the daily chart, signaling a shift toward a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, reinforcing downside momentum.

A decisive break below key support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel strengthens the bearish outlook, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward 0.6131—its lowest level since April 2020. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6256. A rebound above this level could reintroduce a bullish bias, with the next upside target near 0.6360.

US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

The US dollar strengthened significantly against all major currencies after President Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary reignited concerns about potential tariffs, raising fears that trade policies may return to the forefront. Risk-sensitive currencies, particularly those tied to China, saw sharp declines, while the euro weakened amid speculation that the European Union could soon face tariff pressures. Simultaneously, the Japanese yen took a hit as traders hedged against potential US inflation spikes and rising Treasury yields.

This market turbulence followed a Financial Times report indicating that Scott Bessent, the newly appointed Treasury Department official, supports a phased approach to implementing universal tariffs on US imports. The initial proposal suggests starting with a 2.5% tariff rate. However, President Trump hinted at a much broader scope, potentially targeting a range of imports from steel to semiconductor chips and suggesting higher tariff rates over time.

The administration’s “moderate” proposal involves a gradual increase in tariffs, reaching 20% over eight months in increments of 2.5% per month. This timeline has triggered speculation about more extreme scenarios and raised questions about the global trade concessions needed to halt these measures. Bessent’s approach, which allows businesses time to adjust, could also spark a rush of imports and exports to avoid higher future costs.

Amid these developments, financial markets are grappling with the potential outcomes. Traders are assessing whether the proposed tariff measures are fully priced in and evaluating the likelihood of de-escalation through negotiation.

On the positive side, any concessions or agreements that delay or reduce tariffs could stabilize markets. However, the risks of escalating tariffs, particularly if negotiations fail, remain a significant concern. Higher tariffs could disrupt global trade and have far-reaching implications for currency valuations.

While we initially favored long positions on the dollar, the unfolding tariff narrative has introduced significant uncertainty. Staying prepared for sudden shifts in policy and market dynamics is now crucial as the situation continues to evolve.

Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) ended its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the AUD/USD pair trading flat following the release of mixed Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. As a close trade partner, Australia’s economy is heavily influenced by China’s economic performance.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, down from 50.1 in December, missing market expectations. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 from the previous month’s 52.2. These weaker-than-expected figures suggest a slowdown in China’s economic recovery, weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.

Despite fresh stimulus measures from China aimed at revitalizing its equity markets, the AUD struggled to gain momentum. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a second round of long-term stock investment pilot programs valued at 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). However, these measures have done little to alleviate investor concerns about China’s economic challenges.

Risk Aversion Rises Amid Trump’s Trade Tariff Push

Broader market sentiment took a hit as reports emerged that US President Donald Trump’s advisers are pushing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February 1, bypassing negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s willingness to move swiftly on tariffs follows similar actions taken against Colombia, raising fears of escalating trade tensions and dampening demand for riskier assets like the Australian Dollar.

Adding to the negative outlook, China’s Industrial Profits declined by 3.3% year-over-year in 2024 to CNY 7,431.05 billion, marking the third consecutive year of contraction. This downturn highlights ongoing economic headwinds, including weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property sector.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Bullish Setup

The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6290 on Monday, showing signs of upward momentum within an ascending channel on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 50, reflecting mild optimism in the market.

On the upside, the pair could retest the psychological resistance level at 0.6300, with the next target near the channel’s upper boundary around 0.6350.

Support levels are found at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6265, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6254. A stronger support lies near the channel’s lower boundary around 0.6240, which could act as a safety net in case of a downside correction.

NZD/USD Struggles Below 0.5700 Amid Trump’s Tariff Plans and Dovish RBNZ Expectations

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading near 0.5675 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces headwinds due to uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China and the dovish outlook of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicated a continued decline in underlying inflation, strengthening expectations of additional rate cuts by the RBNZ. Swap markets now estimate a nearly 90% chance of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut on February 19, building on the two cuts already implemented in this cycle. The RBNZ is projected to deliver a total of 100 bps in rate cuts through the remainder of 2025.

Meanwhile, the downside for the pair could be capped by recent comments from Trump. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump called for immediate interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” Trump said.

Investors are now closely watching for further details on Trump’s tariff policies, alongside key US economic data releases. The flash US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for January will be a key focus later on Friday, along with the release of US Existing Home Sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

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