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GBP/JPY Slides to 205.00 Amid Intervention Fears

GBP/JPY Slides to 205.00 Amid Intervention Fears

GBP/JPY Slides to 205.00 Amid Intervention Fears

The GBP/JPY pair continued its downward trend for the second consecutive day on Friday, moving away from its highest level since August 2008, which was around 206.15 earlier this week. Currently, the spot prices are trading just above the 205.00 psychological mark, down approximately 0.35% for the day. This decline is largely attributed to concerns that Japanese authorities or the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may intervene in the markets to support the domestic currency.

Japan’s Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, made a statement today indicating that he will closely monitor stock and forex markets with vigilance, noting that a weak Japanese Yen (JPY) is affecting prices. Despite this, a significant appreciation of the JPY remains unlikely due to the BoJ’s dovish stance. The BoJ has been hesitant to provide a detailed plan for reducing bond purchases and raising interest rates. Additionally, the prevailing risk-on environment is expected to limit the demand for the safe-haven JPY, thus restricting the losses for the GBP/JPY pair.

On the other side of the equation, the British Pound (GBP) received a slight boost from exit polls suggesting that Britain’s main opposition Labour Party is set to win a substantial majority in the UK general election. However, this outcome also paves the way for a potential rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in August, which could act as a headwind for the Sterling and the GBP/JPY pair. Moreover, the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart suggests that some profit-taking might occur as the week comes to an end.

Despite these factors, the GBP/JPY pair is likely to close in positive territory for the fourth consecutive week. The interplay of market interventions by Japanese authorities, the BoJ’s policy stance, and the political developments in the UK will continue to influence the pair’s movements in the near term. Traders will be closely watching these dynamics, especially with the potential for further interventions or policy shifts that could impact the GBP/JPY pair’s trajectory. 

As we move forward, the focus will remain on the actions of the BoJ and the UK political landscape, which are key drivers in the forex market, particularly for the GBP/JPY cross.

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EUR/JPY Rises Above 173.50, Focus on Eurozone PMI

EUR/JPY Rises Above 173.50, Focus on Eurozone PMI

EUR/JPY Rises Above 173.50, Focus on Eurozone PMI

The EUR/JPY pair remains in positive territory for the sixth consecutive day, trading near 173.80 during the early European session on Wednesday. This sustained upward movement is primarily due to the weakening Japanese Yen (JPY), which has been impacted by recent data indicating a contraction in Japanese business activity for June.

The final reading of Japan’s Services PMI fell to 49.4 in June from 49.8 in May, marking the largest downward shift since January 2022 and one of the most significant declines on record. This data has put selling pressure on the JPY, providing a headwind for the currency pair. However, there remains a possibility that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could intervene in the foreign exchange market, which might lend some support to the JPY in the near term.

On the Euro side, the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rate eased to 2.5% year-over-year in June, down from 2.6% in May. Despite this slight decrease, these inflation figures are not expected to prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting on July 18. According to Bert Colijn, senior Eurozone economist at the Dutch bank ING, “Nothing in these figures would make the ECB cut again in July, and we think it’ll be eagerly awaiting data over the summer before seriously debating a next rate cut in September.”

Furthermore, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated on Monday that recent economic developments do not indicate an urgent need for further interest rate cuts. This stance highlights the ongoing divergence in monetary policy between the Eurozone and Japan, which continues to support the Euro against the Yen.

Overall, the EUR/JPY cross is benefitting from the contrasting economic situations and monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone and Japan. As the market anticipates further data releases and potential central bank actions, the pair’s performance will likely remain influenced by these macroeconomic factors. For now, the weakening JPY and stable Eurozone inflation are keeping the EUR/JPY on an upward trajectory.

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Asian Shares Mixed After Wall Street Gains

Asian Shares Mixed After Wall Street Gains

Asian Shares Mixed After Wall Street Gains

Asian stocks experienced mixed performance on Tuesday following gains on Wall Street and a surge in U.S. bond yields as election-related issues influenced global markets.

U.S. futures declined, while oil prices increased. The Japanese yen fell to a near 38-year low, hitting 161.67 yen to the dollar early Tuesday. This depreciation in the yen boosted Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 by 1.1% to 40,074.69, as investors bought export-oriented shares.

In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.4% to 7,718.20. South Korea’s Kospi also fell, losing 0.8% to 2,781.92, despite data indicating that the country’s consumer inflation slowed to an 11-month low in June.

Hong Kong’s market showed positive momentum after a holiday break, with the Hang Seng climbing 0.3% to 17,775.84. The Shanghai Composite Index had a modest increase of 0.1% to 2,995.78. Elsewhere in Asia, Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.6%, while Bangkok’s SET index slipped by 0.4%.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 5,475.09. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.1% to 39,169.52, and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.8% to 17,879.30. European markets saw significant activity, with France’s CAC 40 index jumping as much as 2.8% before settling for a 1.1% gain. Results from France suggested a far-right party might not secure a decisive majority in legislative elections, easing concerns over potential high-debt policies.

This year is significant for elections globally, with voters heading to the polls in the United Kingdom later this week and soon in other countries. In the U.S., pollsters are assessing the impact of the recent debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Investors are also watching the effects of a Supreme Court ruling granting former presidents broad immunity from prosecution, likely delaying a criminal case against Trump until after the November election.

In the financial markets, Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.46% from 4.39% on Friday. This surge reflects expectations of a potential Republican victory in the upcoming elections, reminiscent of market movements from 2016. Higher yields have reversed the trend seen since spring when the yield topped 4.70% in late April.

Previously, easing yields were driven by hopes that inflation would slow enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. High rates have burdened the U.S. economy, making borrowing more expensive. Recent data showing weaker U.S. manufacturing and decelerating price increases have bolstered hopes for rate cuts.

The week’s economic highlight will be the U.S. government’s employment report on Friday. Economists predict that hiring slowed to 190,000 in June from May’s 272,000, approaching the “Goldilocks” figure of around 150,000, which indicates sustainable growth without fueling inflation.

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NZD/USD Reclaims 0.6100 Amid Weaker USD

NZD/USD Reclaims 0.6100 Amid Weaker USD, Limited Upside

NZD/USD Reclaims 0.6100 Amid Weaker USD, Limited Upside

The NZD/USD pair is experiencing some dip-buying during the Asian session on Monday, aiming to build on Friday’s modest bounce from the mid-0.6000s, its lowest level since mid-May. Currently, spot prices hover around the 0.6100 mark due to a modest weakening of the US Dollar (USD). However, there remains a lack of bullish conviction amid uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential rate-cut path.

On Friday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index confirmed the ongoing disinflationary trend, aligning with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for May. This reinforced market expectations that the Fed might begin cutting interest rates at the September policy meeting, putting USD bulls on the defensive. Additionally, a positive tone in US equity futures has undermined the safe-haven appeal of the USD, lending support to the NZD/USD pair.

Despite this, the Fed adopted a more hawkish stance during the June policy meeting, forecasting only one interest rate cut in 2024. Further complicating the outlook, President Joe Biden’s challenging debate with his Republican opponent has increased the odds of a Trump presidency. This potential shift in leadership has raised concerns about the imposition of aggressive tariffs by the Trump administration, which could fuel inflation and trigger higher interest rates. This scenario supports elevated US Treasury bond yields, potentially limiting further USD losses.

Moreover, expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might cut rates earlier than anticipated, coupled with China’s economic struggles, could deter bullish traders from placing fresh bets on the NZD/USD pair. Official data released on Sunday revealed that China’s manufacturing activity declined for the second consecutive month in June, while services activity fell to a five-month low. These factors suggest caution before confirming that the NZD/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on important US macroeconomic releases at the start of the new month, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which may offer short-term opportunities during the North American session. However, the primary focus will be on the closely-watched US monthly employment report, known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for Friday. This report will play a crucial role in influencing near-term USD price dynamics and driving the NZD/USD pair.

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New Zealand Dollar Hits Seven-Week Low After RBNZ Cuts Interest Rate by 50 bps

NZD/USD Nears Mid-0.6000s, Lowest Since Mid-May Ahead of US PCE

NZD/USD Nears Mid-0.6000s, Lowest Since Mid-May Ahead of US PCE

The NZD/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure after a brief respite, plummeting to its lowest level since mid-May during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices are currently trading just above the mid-0.6000s, down 0.35% for the day, confirming a bearish breakdown through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The US Dollar (USD) has regained positive momentum, bouncing back from Thursday’s softer data-led decline to reach a nearly two-month peak. This resurgence is driven by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish outlook, with recent comments from influential FOMC members indicating no rush to begin a rate-cutting cycle. This outlook has triggered a fresh increase in US Treasury bond yields. Additionally, some repositioning ahead of crucial US inflation data has further boosted the dollar, adding to the downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

Conversely, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is weighed down by expectations of an earlier-than-expected rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). This anticipation has overshadowed a generally positive tone in the equity markets, failing to provide any support to the risk-sensitive Kiwi. Consequently, the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair remains downward. Traders, however, are likely to await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for further insights into the Fed’s future policy decisions and the rate-cut path.

A lower-than-expected PCE deflator or a figure in line with market expectations could support the case for two rate cuts by the Fed this year, potentially weakening the USD. Conversely, an upward surprise would likely push back the timing for the first Fed rate cut and trigger a fresh rally for the dollar. Hence, this data release will be crucial in shaping near-term USD price dynamics and determining the next directional move for the NZD/USD pair.

Regardless of the upcoming data, spot prices for the NZD/USD seem poised to register significant weekly losses, continuing a nearly three-week-old downtrend.

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NZD/USD Drops to Near 0.6100

NZD/USD Drops to Near 0.6100 Amid Risk Aversion and Consumer Confidence Concerns

NZD/USD Drops to Near 0.6100 Amid Risk Aversion and Consumer Confidence Concerns

The NZD/USD pair extends its losses for the second consecutive session, trading around 0.6110 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is struggling, possibly due to rising risk aversion ahead of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence data for June and the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the first quarter (Q1) on Thursday. Additionally, market participants are closely watching the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is scheduled for release on Friday.

The ongoing uncertainty in the global financial markets has led to heightened caution among investors, impacting the NZD/USD pair. Concerns over the upcoming consumer confidence data have intensified, as this indicator will provide insights into the economic sentiment in New Zealand. A lower-than-expected reading could further dampen the outlook for the NZD.

Moreover, the impending release of the US GDP figures adds another layer of complexity. A robust GDP report could strengthen the US Dollar (USD), making the NZD/USD pair less attractive. Conversely, a weaker GDP figure could offer some relief to the NZD. However, the market remains cautious, waiting for clear signals from these key economic indicators.

Adding to the downward pressure on the NZD, New Zealand’s Treasury issued a statement on Wednesday highlighting the risks posed by a weak economy to its forecasts. The Treasury is considering additional spending and revenue solutions to address these challenges. This admission of economic vulnerability has contributed to the bearish sentiment surrounding the NZD.

Economist McLeish echoed these concerns, pointing to recent data that suggests economic weakness in New Zealand. The combination of internal economic challenges and external uncertainties has created a challenging environment for the NZD.

The upcoming US PCE Price Index release on Friday is another critical factor influencing the NZD/USD pair. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Price Index will be closely scrutinized. A higher-than-expected reading could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance, potentially boosting the USD further and putting additional pressure on the NZD.

In summary, the NZD/USD pair is navigating a complex landscape of economic indicators and market sentiments. The pair’s performance in the coming days will largely depend on the outcomes of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence data, the US GDP report, and the PCE Price Index. Investors remain cautious, closely monitoring these developments to gauge the future direction of the NZD/USD pair.

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USD/CAD Nears 1.3700 as Fed Postpones Rate Cut

USD/CAD Nears 1.3700 as Fed Postpones Rate Cut

USD/CAD Nears 1.3700 as Fed Postpones Rate Cut

The USD/CAD pair arrested a six-day downtrend, trading near the 1.3700 mark in Monday’s Asian trading session, buoyed by robust U.S. economic data from the previous Friday. The uplift in the U.S. Dollar (USD) was primarily due to an unexpectedly strong U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report.

June’s U.S. Composite PMI climbed slightly to 54.6, up from May’s 54.5, marking the highest level seen since April 2022. The Manufacturing PMI also exceeded expectations, rising to 51.7 from the previous 51.3 and surpassing the forecast of 51.0. Additionally, the Services PMI increased to 55.1, up from 54.8 in May, and beat the consensus prediction of 53.7.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, edged higher. This increase follows comments from Federal Reserve officials who indicated a delay in the expected timing of the year’s first interest rate cut. Specifically, Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, noted in a Reuters report that reducing inflation to 2% could take one to two years.

Market expectations have adjusted accordingly, with the CME FedWatch Tool now showing a 65.9% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, a decrease from 70.2% a week earlier.

On the Canadian side, the Canadian Dollar (CAD), which often correlates with commodity prices, found some support from rising crude oil prices. Oil markets have reacted to escalating geopolitical tensions, including Israeli military actions in Gaza and continued Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, both of which have stirred supply concerns.

These factors combined to halt the recent slide in the USD/CAD exchange rate, setting the stage for potential fluctuations based on upcoming economic data releases and geopolitical developments.

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Asia Stocks Slide on US Rate Hike, China Economic Concerns

Asia Stocks Slide on US Rate Hike, China Economic Concerns

The Asian stock markets are grappling with substantial declines driven by a combination of factors, including heightened concerns over a US interest rate hike and the precarious state of China’s economic prospects. The confluence of these factors has set the stage for a notable selling spree across the region’s stock exchanges.

A significant catalyst in this downward trajectory is the perception of an impending interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. The robustness of the US labor market has fueled speculation that the central bank could opt for another round of interest rate increases, which has sent waves of apprehension through the investment landscape. This sentiment has triggered a chain reaction of selling across Asian markets.

China’s economic landscape is adding fuel to the fire, further exacerbating the decline in stock prices. The Shanghai Composite Index, emblematic of China’s primary stock market, is grappling with a decline of 0.06%. Similarly, the Shenzhen Component Index has faced a notable decrease of 0.54%. The repercussions of China’s economic woes are also felt in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which has witnessed a substantial dip of 1.12%. This trend extends across the region: India’s NIFTY 50 has seen a drop of 0.31%, South Korea’s Kospi Index has undergone a decline of 0.62%, and Japan’s Nikkei Index has experienced a loss of 0.63%. 

A central point of concern within China’s economic landscape is the unfolding situation surrounding Evergrande, the country’s second-largest real estate company. The company’s decision to file for bankruptcy in a US court has reverberated across global markets, intensifying the already present fears of a significant Chinese property crisis. These concerns are exacerbated by the fact that the Chinese House Price Index for July has registered a notable decrease, further contributing to the prevailing unease. The potential reevaluation of China’s sovereign credit rating by Fitch Ratings looms as another potential consequence of these ongoing challenges.

In Japan, amidst this tumultuous backdrop, the National Consumer Price Index for July has managed to surpass expectations. However, the Bank of Japan is still anticipated to hold steadfast to its loose monetary policy, reflecting an approach aimed at supporting the nation’s economic recovery.

As the market continues to grapple with these multifaceted issues, market participants remain closely attuned to developments in China’s ongoing debt crisis and real estate predicament. The interplay of these dynamics is expected to significantly influence the risk sentiment driving market movements, setting the tone for trading activity as the week draws to a close.

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Stocks Dip on Fed Minutes Hinting at Potential Rate Hikes

Stocks Dip on Fed Minutes Hinting at Potential Rate Hikes

On Wednesday, the stock market witnessed a noticeable decline in response to the Federal Reserve’s indication of potential rate hikes, prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies among traders and investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) recorded a decrease of approximately 0.5%, equivalent to a drop of around 180 points. Similarly, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) experienced a decline of nearly 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), dominated by technology-focused companies, suffered its second consecutive day of losses with a drop exceeding 1%.

Amidst this market activity, a prominent occurrence in the retail sector was the stark projection provided by Target (TGT), which adjusted its full-year profit forecast downward. The rationale behind this adjustment was attributed to the combination of escalating interest rates and the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the resumption of student loan repayments. Despite this unfavorable news, Target’s stock exhibited a surprising increase of over 3%, a surge attributed to the company’s robust quarterly profit performance that overshadowed the downward outlook.

The spotlight then turned to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting. The minutes divulged that a majority of officials maintained their stance that inflation presented a potential risk, while a select few expressed hesitance toward further rate increases in the month of July. Notably, the central bank had already executed an interest rate hike, elevating rates to their highest point since 2001 during that specific meeting. Investors eagerly sifted through the minutes in search of clues regarding the Fed’s forthcoming strategies. Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool demonstrated that almost 90% of traders were anticipating a status quo in terms of rates, a figure that saw a marginal decrease from before the minutes were released.

Elsewhere in the economic landscape, insights from the Census Bureau highlighted an uptick in housing starts during July. This increase, amounting to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.452 million units for both new single-family and multi-family residences, represented a growth of 5.9% when compared to the previous year. These figures slightly surpassed economists’ expectations, which had projected 1.450 million units. However, the sentiment among builders experienced a minor decline in August, marking the conclusion of a seven-month streak of continuous improvements.

In summation, the collective response to the Federal Reserve’s suggestions of potential rate hikes, coupled with discouraging retail projections and a blend of varied economic data, converged to trigger the stock market’s decline on this particular trading day. As investors absorb these developments, the landscape remains primed for continued scrutiny and adaptation to the evolving financial environment.

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Asian stock market remains under pressure due to China’s economic woes

Asian stock market remains under pressure due to China’s economic woes

The Asian stock markets are grappling with sustained pressure as China’s economic challenges continue to cast a shadow over the region’s financial landscape. The markets are currently experiencing a cautious atmosphere, largely influenced by a combination of disheartening Chinese economic data and robust US retail sales figures.

China’s stock indices have undergone a relentless decline spanning four consecutive days. This disheartening trend was underscored by the July House Price Index plummeting to a concerning -0.1%. The pronounced drop in this index raises alarming concerns about the possibility of a looming property crisis. Notably, one of the major real estate developers, Country Garden Holdings, is encountering significant difficulties in meeting its debt obligations. Adding to the prevailing unease, the People’s Bank of China’s recent decision to reduce the medium-term lending facility rate has only heightened apprehensions about the overall health of China’s economy.

In Japan, despite the release of encouraging GDP data, the Nikkei has stumbled to its lowest point since July 12. This subdued performance is rooted in investor wariness regarding potential interventions by the Bank of Japan to stabilize foreign exchange rates, which has engendered an aura of hesitancy among market participants.

On a different note, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has chosen to maintain its benchmark interest rates at their existing levels. Notably, the central bank’s governor has also conveyed a hawkish stance aimed at managing the escalating expectations surrounding inflation.

As the markets look ahead, a keen eye is being kept on the imminent release of the FOMC Minutes and any statements from Federal Reserve officials, as they hold the potential to offer insights into the trajectory of future monetary policies. These events are expected to wield considerable influence over riskier assets like equities and currencies sensitive to risk. Further down the line, the forthcoming Japanese trade data and the National Consumer Price Index are anticipated to contribute to the ever-evolving dynamics of the market.

In conclusion, the Asian stock markets are in the throes of persistent strain attributed to the ongoing uncertainties stemming from China’s economic adversities. The concerning drop in Chinese house prices, coupled with fears of a looming property crisis, along with cautious sentiments emanating from Japan and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to maintain unchanged interest rates, have collectively shaped the prevailing market sentiment. The careful observation of forthcoming economic indicators and the actions of central banks will continue to provide valuable insights into the potential trajectories of the Asian stock markets in the days to come.

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S&P 500, Nasdaq Rise on Nvidia’s Surge

S&P 500, Nasdaq Rise on Nvidia’s Surge

In a notable market development, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher on the back of a surge in chipmaker Nvidia’s stock. This upward momentum was largely propelled by a bullish note from Morgan Stanley, leading to Nvidia’s impressive rise of 7.1%. This marked the largest single-day increase for the company since May 25, and had a positive ripple effect on megacap growth stocks and the overall technology sector, which saw gains of 1.85%.

It’s worth highlighting that several other major growth stocks also experienced upward movement during this period. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, recorded a 1.4% increase, while e-commerce giant Amazon.com rose by 1.6%. Micron Technology, a leading semiconductor manufacturer, witnessed an even more significant surge with a 6.1% rise in its stock price.

By the end of the trading day, the S&P 500 closed at 4,489.72 points, reflecting a 0.58% increase. Similarly, the Nasdaq Index registered a gain of 1.05%, reaching a value of 13,788.33 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also experienced a modest rise of 0.07%, closing at 35,307.63 points.

Market analyst Jay Hatfield attributed the outperformance of tech stocks to Nvidia’s positive report and its potential impact on the broader tech market. As the chipmaker’s stock surged, it instilled confidence in investors and bolstered sentiment towards the technology sector as a whole.

On the other hand, electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla faced a slight setback with a 1.2% decrease in its stock price. This decline came after the company announced price reductions for certain versions of its Model Y vehicles in China.

Investors are closely monitoring economic data, with a particular focus on the upcoming retail sales figures for July. These numbers have the potential to influence expectations regarding U.S. interest rates. Currently, traders anticipate that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at their current levels next month.

Meanwhile, concerns persist regarding China’s leveraged property sector, exacerbated by the recent delayed bond payment by property developer Country Garden. This has further underscored the need for caution among investors, particularly those with exposure to the Chinese real estate market.

In other news, PayPal Holdings experienced a 2.8% increase in its stock price after the announcement of Alex Chriss, a key executive at Intuit, as the company’s new CEO. This leadership change generated optimism within the market and contributed to PayPal’s positive performance.

However, AMC Entertainment’s common shares took a significant hit, falling by nearly 36%. Similarly, Hawaiian Electric Industries shares plunged by almost 34%, reflecting the challenges faced by these particular companies within their respective industries.

During this trading period, trading volume remained relatively light, and declining stocks slightly outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500. This suggests a cautious approach among investors and a certain level of indecisiveness in the market.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reported new highs and lows during this time, highlighting the dynamic nature of the market and the constant flux experienced by individual stocks and indices.

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Stocks Conclude with Gains Following Inflation Data

Stocks Conclude with Gains Following Inflation Data

Stocks closed higher on Thursday following the release of the latest inflation data, which showed a slight increase on an annual basis. This marks the first time in over a year that inflation has shown signs of picking up. However, investors found solace in the fact that disinflationary trends remained positive.

At the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) recorded a gain of approximately 0.2%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) remained relatively flat, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) saw a modest increase of 0.1%. It’s worth noting that all three indexes had trimmed their larger gains from earlier in the session.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a widely followed measure of inflation, showed a 0.2% increase compared to the previous month and a 3.2% increase compared to the previous year in July. These figures were in line with the 0.2% month-over-month increase seen in June but slightly higher than the 3% annual increase recorded in the same period. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated a 3.3% yearly increase for July.

On a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices rose by 0.2% over the previous month and 4.7% over the last year in July. These figures exceeded economists’ expectations slightly. Notably, core inflation experienced its slowest pace of growth since October 2021.

As quarterly earnings season nears its close, investors are keeping a close eye on the reports from Alibaba (BABA) and Ralph Lauren (RL). Shares of Disney (DIS) closed up nearly 5% after the company announced plans to raise monthly prices for its ad-free streaming plans.

The reaction in the market to the inflation data indicates a cautious optimism among investors. While any increase in inflation could raise concerns, the fact that disinflationary trends remained positive helped alleviate some of those worries. The Federal Reserve has been closely monitoring inflation as it determines its monetary policy decisions.

Overall, the market remains vigilant, closely watching economic indicators and corporate earnings. This ongoing assessment of the recovery trajectory and potential implications for future policy actions will continue to shape investor sentiment in the coming days and weeks.

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Asian Shares Fall on Bank Concerns and Chinese Economic Worries

Asian Shares Fall on Bank Concerns and Chinese Economic Worries

Asian markets experienced declines on Wednesday due to concerns about the U.S. banking system’s performance, which triggered a slide on Wall Street. Simultaneously, worries about Chinese economic growth added to the downward trend in the region’s stock markets.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.2% to 32,323.31 during morning trading, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 remained almost unchanged, inching up by less than 0.1% to 7,316.60. South Korea’s Kospi, however, recorded a nearly 1.0% increase to reach 2,598.96. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined by 0.4% to 19,105.19, and the Shanghai Composite also fell by 0.4% to 3,247.64.

Clifford Bennett, the chief economist at ACY Securities, highlighted concerns over China’s export data, which experienced the sharpest decline in three years. He emphasized that this decline reflects not only China’s situation but also the global economy’s challenges.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.4% to 4,499.38, marking the fifth loss in the last six days, following strong performance in the initial seven months of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell by 0.4% to 35,314.49, recovering slightly from an earlier loss of 465 points. The Nasdaq composite witnessed an 0.8% decrease to 13,884.32.

Moody’s downgraded the credit ratings of 10 smaller and midsized U.S. banks, with six others under review, citing concerns related to their financial strength. Factors such as rising interest rates and the impact of remote work on office vacancies were highlighted.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its main interest rate to the highest level in over two decades aimed at curbing inflation has impacted banks significantly. The higher rates have also devalued investments made during the low-rate period, contributing to recent high-profile U.S. bank failures.

Moody’s warned that banks with substantial commercial real estate loans could face challenges due to the ongoing work-from-home trends affecting office spaces.

In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.02% from 4.10%, influencing rates for mortgages and other loans. The two-year Treasury yield, which reflects expectations for the Fed, slipped to 4.75% from 4.79%.

In energy trading, U.S. crude oil prices decreased by 13 cents to $82.79 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, fell by 9 cents to $86.08 per barrel. Regarding currency trading, the U.S. dollar slightly dropped to 143.31 Japanese yen from 143.36 yen, while the euro increased to $1.0963 from $1.0960.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Nasdaq 100 Futures Ascend as Investors Balance Big Tech Earnings

Nasdaq 100 Futures Ascend as Investors Balance Big Tech Earnings

Nasdaq 100 futures saw a slight increase on Friday morning as investors closely analyzed the latest earnings reports from prominent technology companies ahead of a crucial employment report scheduled for release. Futures linked to the tech-heavy index rose by approximately 0.72%, while S&P 500 futures climbed 0.48%. Additionally, futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a gain of 92 points, or 0.26%.

Several earnings reports released after the market’s closing bell had a significant impact on individual stocks. Amazon surged nearly 9% after surpassing profit expectations and providing positive guidance, while Apple declined around 2% due to lower revenue compared to the same quarter last year.

Apart from the major tech companies, Airbnb’s stock slid as the company revealed that nights and experiences booked grew at a slower rate than anticipated by Wall Street. On the other hand, DraftKings and Dropbox stocks rose approximately 13% and 4%, respectively, following reports that exceeded analysts’ expectations.

These earnings reports constitute a part of the ongoing earnings season, during which roughly 79% of S&P 500 companies have disclosed their results, with about 80% surpassing Wall Street’s expectations, according to FactSet data.

Investors are closely monitoring the jobs data scheduled for release on Friday morning to gain further insights into the labor market and overall economy’s strength. They hope that slower growth in hourly earnings will signal to the Federal Reserve that the previous interest rate hikes have achieved their intended effects on the economy. Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank, emphasized the significance of the upcoming jobs report and its potential implications for inflation.

Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate nonfarm payrolls to grow by 200,000 in July, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 3.6%. Average hourly wages are projected to rise by 0.3% from June and 4.2% on an annualized basis.

The recent increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield had a negative impact on stocks during Thursday’s trading session, causing the three major indexes to close in the red.

As the trading week approaches its end, the three major indexes are set to finish lower. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 are poised to post their worst weekly performances since March, down about 2.5% and 1.8%, respectively, while the Dow has slid 0.7% on a week-to-date basis.

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Gold Price Maintains Minor Gains Amid Uncertainty

Gold Price Maintains Minor Gains Amid Uncertainty Over Fed’s Rate Decision

Gold Price Maintains Minor Gains Amid Uncertainty Over Fed’s Rate Decision

On Tuesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) saw a resurgence, gradually recovering from the near three-week low of around the $2,017-2,016 zone, which it had reached the day before. This rebound is primarily attributed to the recent decline in US Consumer Inflation Expectations, which has increased speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might commence reducing interest rates as soon as March. This expectation serves as a significant boost for the non-yielding yellow metal, though the uptick in gold prices shows limited bullish momentum.

The optimistic US monthly employment data released last Friday indicated a robust labor market, fueling expectations of a ‘soft landing’ for the economy. However, recent hawkish statements from various Fed officials have cast doubts over the likelihood of an early rate cut by the US central bank. Consequently, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond remains above 4.0%, providing support to the US Dollar (USD) and, in turn, restraining gains in the price of gold.

Additionally, the overall positive sentiment in Asian equity markets is another factor that tempers aggressive bullish bets on the safe-haven XAU/USD. Investors are also exhibiting caution, opting to wait for the upcoming US consumer inflation data, which will offer further insights into the Fed’s impending policy decisions. This information will be crucial for investors to gauge the short-term direction of gold prices. Therefore, despite the current recovery, there is a need for caution among investors before committing to a more substantial recovery trajectory for gold, especially considering its recent dip to a near three-week low on Monday.

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WTI Nears $73.00 Amidst Rising Tensions

WTI Nears $73.00 Amidst Rising Tensions in Israel-Gaza and Disruptions in Libya’s Oilfields

WTI Nears $73.00 Amidst Rising Tensions in Israel-Gaza and Disruptions in Libya’s Oilfields

In recent developments during the Asian trading session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are trending upwards, nearing the $73.00 mark per barrel. This increase is largely attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions in key oil-producing regions.

The escalation of the Israel-Gaza conflict is a significant factor contributing to the rise in oil prices. The Iran-backed Houthis have intensified the situation by launching two anti-ship ballistic missiles at a container ship traveling towards Israel through the southern Red Sea, raising concerns about the safety and security of key maritime routes in the area. Additionally, the Middle East remains tense following the death of nearly 100 people in Iran during an event to commemorate the late commander Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by a US drone strike in 2020. These events reflect the broader geopolitical instability in the region, affecting global oil markets.

On the supply side, the Sharara oilfield in Libya, which has a production capacity of up to 300,000 barrels per day, witnessed a complete halt in operations due to local protests. This unexpected disruption has put further upward pressure on oil prices as it affects the supply dynamics in the market. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) continue to play a crucial role in managing global oil supply. The group has reaffirmed its commitment to ongoing cooperation and is scheduled to meet on February 1 to review the implementation of recent oil output cuts.

In addition to these geopolitical and supply factors, recent data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) has also bolstered oil prices. The weekly report showed a substantial decline in US Crude stocks by 7.418 million barrels for the week ending December 29, significantly exceeding the expected decrease of 2.967 million barrels. Market participants are now keenly awaiting the release of the US Crude Oil Stocks Change data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday, which will provide further insight into the country’s oil inventory levels.

As these various factors intertwine, the upward trajectory of WTI prices reflects the market’s sensitivity to changes in geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and inventory data. With the ongoing volatility in key oil-producing regions and the anticipation of further data releases, the oil market remains closely watched by investors and analysts alike, seeking to gauge the future direction of crude oil prices.

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WTI Oil Price Stays Around $77.30 Amid Potential

WTI Stays Guarded, Holding Above $72.00 During Sparse Holiday Trading Period

WTI Stays Guarded, Holding Above $72.00 During Sparse Holiday Trading Period

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), a key benchmark for U.S. crude oil, is hovering around $72.15, reflecting the market’s cautious stance in the waning days of the year. The slight dip in WTI prices is being influenced by a modest recovery in the U.S. Dollar (USD) alongside diminishing concerns about supply disruptions that had previously heightened market volatility.

Earlier in the month, security concerns in the Red Sea escalated as Yemen’s Houthi militant group targeted vessels, prompting major shipping companies to halt transits through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. However, as tensions ease and logistical operations recommence in the region, the initial fear-induced spike in oil prices has begun to stabilize.

Recent inventory data has also swayed market sentiment. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) disclosed a substantial decrease in crude inventories, far exceeding market expectations. This discrepancy between reports adds a layer of complexity to market predictions and price movements.

Looking forward, the possibility of interest rate cuts in both Europe and the U.S. in 2024 is creating a dual effect on the market. On one hand, there’s anticipation that the Federal Reserve and other central banks may initiate rate cuts as early as March 2024, potentially weakening the USD and, in turn, making USD-denominated commodities like oil cheaper for holders of other currencies. On the other hand, these potential cuts are exerting some selling pressure on WTI as investors recalibrate their expectations for global economic growth and demand for energy.

As the year ends, the focus also shifts to key economic indicators such as the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December, which will provide further insight into the economic health and sentiment in one of the world’s largest oil-consuming countries. However, with the holiday season in full swing, trading volumes are thinner, and market moves may be more pronounced or erratic as a result.

In summary, WTI’s current position above $72 reflects a confluence of global geopolitical shifts, inventory changes, currency dynamics, and anticipatory moves regarding future monetary policy. As traders navigate through this complex landscape, WTI’s price trajectory will likely continue to be a focal point of global economic and energy discussions entering the new year.

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Gains on Risk Aversion and Slight Decline in US Dollar Before American Economic Reports

Gold Gains on Risk Aversion and Slight Decline in US Dollar Before American Economic Reports

On Thursday, gold prices saw a notable recovery, clawing back much of the losses experienced earlier in the week and stirring interest among investors. Despite this rebound, gold has remained within a well-trodden range as the market’s attention is fixed on potential new drivers that could shape the next significant price movement. Investors are particularly focused on the upcoming release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. This key inflation indicator, due on Friday, could provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s next moves and is expected to be a critical determinant of gold’s short-term price direction.

Gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset means its prospects are closely tied to monetary policy expectations and economic indicators. With speculation mounting that the Federal Reserve may soften its aggressive monetary stance by early next year, the US Dollar has weakened, inadvertently providing a boost to gold prices. Market forecasts now suggest a heightened probability that the Fed could begin reducing interest rates as soon as March 2024. These predictions have gained traction following a dip in US Treasury yields, which recently hit a multi-month low, signaling investor caution and a potential shift in the economic landscape.

The precious metal’s recent gains are also being attributed to a broader shift in market sentiment, with investors displaying risk aversion ahead of significant US economic data releases. The forthcoming reports, including the final third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Index, are anticipated during the North American trading session. These reports are expected to shed light on the health of the US economy, influencing the risk calculus for investors and potentially bolstering gold’s position as a safe-haven asset.

This complex interplay of anticipated policy shifts, economic data, and market sentiment is forming a crucible for gold prices, which are sensitive to both actual economic conditions and investor expectations. The yellow metal’s trajectory in the near term is likely to reflect the balance of these factors as investors navigate through an environment of heightened economic uncertainty and shifting policy landscapes.

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WTI Stays Under $73 Amid Positive Outlook Despite Houthi Vessel Attacks

WTI Stays Under $73 Amid Positive Outlook Despite Houthi Vessel Attacks

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are grappling to push past the $73 mark, managing to hover around $72.80 per barrel during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The market’s buoyancy, despite downward pressures, is partly due to geopolitical tensions that have heightened concerns over supply disruptions, particularly following an assault by the Houthi militant group on commercial shipping near Yemen.

The attack’s immediate aftermath saw a Norwegian commercial vessel come under threat in the Red Sea, leading to a significant response from the oil industry. British Petroleum, one of the oil majors, suspended all transit through this crucial waterway. The incident has prompted major shipping companies to reconsider their routes, with some contemplating avoiding the strategic Suez Canal, a vital artery for global oil transport.

In a strategic move, the U.S. Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, has announced Washington’s intention to form a coalition with defense ministers from affected regions. These ministers are expected to hold virtual discussions aimed at addressing the security concerns raised by the Houthi’s actions.

Simultaneously, the oil market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics. Russia’s decision to sustain reduced oil outputs by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) has provided unexpected support to crude oil prices. This cutback is part of a broader strategy to maintain price stability amid sanctions and geopolitical strife. U.S. officials are intensifying efforts to enforce these sanctions more robustly by urging greater transparency from shippers dealing with Russian oil.

On the production front, Canadian oil company Imperial Oil has revised its projections, expecting a significant increase in its upstream production for 2024. The forecast suggests output could reach between 420,000 to 442,000 bpd, surpassing the company’s previous year’s estimates. This uptick in production is echoed by the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors, which anticipates an 8% rise in well-drilling activities for the same year. These increases could introduce additional supplies to the market, potentially placing downward pressure on WTI prices.

Market analysts are closely monitoring industry metrics for further insight into future trends. The Baker Hughes Rig Count, a key indicator of the oil service industry’s health, showed a slight decrease, dropping to 501 from 503, signaling a potential dip in oil production activities. Moreover, upcoming reports such as the American Petroleum Institute (API) Weekly Crude Oil Stock and the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks Change for the week ending on December 15 are highly anticipated by investors, with their publication dates set for the following Tuesday and Wednesday, which could further influence market sentiments and pricing.

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Gold Hits New Multi-Week Low, Awaits 50-Day SMA Test Before Fed Verdict

Gold Hits New Multi-Week Low, Awaits 50-Day SMA Test Before Fed Verdict

Gold prices have dipped to a multi-week nadir as the market braces for the upcoming Federal Reserve decision. For the fourth consecutive day, the precious metal traded lower, touching levels near $1,974 per ounce during the European trading session. This downward trajectory aligns with recent U.S. economic data, which indicated an unexpected rise in consumer prices in November, defying anticipations and potentially altering the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing roadmap.

The stronger-than-anticipated U.S. jobs report released last Friday has also played a part in dampening the outlook for gold, traditionally a non-yielding asset, as it suggests a more robust U.S. economy, which could delay any monetary policy easing by the Fed. Meanwhile, investors are also gauging the impact of China’s economic stimulus measures, which typically provide a boost to gold prices during times of market uncertainty or economic downturns.

With the global economy’s eyes on China’s growth figures, geopolitical tensions further cloud the investment climate, offering a mixed bag of influences on gold’s value. These uncertainties might typically bolster gold’s appeal as a safe haven; however, the current conditions have led to a cautious approach among traders. Many are opting to sideline aggressive bets against the precious metal until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its monetary policy statement and updated economic projections, including the influential “dot plot.”

The financial world is poised for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s insights during his post-meeting press conference. His words will be dissected for any indication of a change in the Fed’s policy stance. A dovish tilt, or indication of forthcoming rate cuts, could weaken the U.S. dollar and conversely prop up gold prices.

Markets have already baked in the anticipation of several rate cuts by the Fed in the coming years, with at least four 25 basis point reductions expected in 2024. Any signal from the Fed that aligns with these expectations will likely have significant ramifications for the dollar and, by extension, for gold prices.

However, with the Fed’s decision imminent, market volatility is anticipated. This volatility could inject momentum into the gold market, potentially reversing recent losses if the Fed’s stance is perceived as more accommodative than currently expected. Such a pivot could reinvigorate gold’s appeal, prompting a reassessment of the metal’s near-term trajectory in the complex interplay of currency valuation, economic forecasts, and global market sentiment.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Stays Near $75 as OPEC+ Cut Expectations Persist

WTI Stays Near $75 as OPEC+ Cut Expectations Persist

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, has been hovering around the $75 mark, with prices on Tuesday noted at approximately $75.05. This current price level comes amid expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies (OPEC+) may continue or even deepen their production cuts in the next year, as they convene for a meeting on Thursday.

The oil market has recently experienced a downturn in prices, leading analysts to forecast that OPEC+ might extend the current production restrictions. Saudi Arabia, a leading global oil exporter, is projected to sustain its reduction of oil supply by 1 million barrels per day into the forthcoming year. Russia is also speculated to contemplate additional cuts of around 300,000 barrels per day. These strategic decisions by OPEC+ members could provide a floor to WTI prices, preventing them from falling further.

Adding to the market dynamics, China, a major player as the world’s top gold producer and consumer, is set to announce its National Bureau of Statistics Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data on Thursday. If the data surpasses market expectations, it could have a positive ripple effect on WTI prices, reflecting the interconnected nature of global commodities.

Conversely, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a potential minor surplus in crude oil production by 2024, assuming OPEC+ continues its production cuts. However, robust oil production from non-OPEC countries, especially the United States, may exert downward pressure on prices.

Attention is also shifting towards key economic indicators from the United States, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for the third quarter anticipated to show an increase to 5% from an earlier figure of 4.9%. Additionally, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, a significant gauge for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, is due for release alongside China’s PMI figures on Thursday. The outcomes of these reports, coupled with the decisions made at the OPEC+ meeting, are expected to have considerable influence on the valuation of the U.S. dollar, which in turn could sway WTI price movements.

Oil traders are closely monitoring these developments, poised to react to the economic indicators and the OPEC+ meeting’s resolution. The interplay of these factors will likely create a complex trading environment for WTI, as market participants seek to capitalize on the emerging opportunities and navigate the geopolitical and economic landscapes influencing oil prices.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, keeping the USD/JPY pair firm around the 147.00 mark during the Asian session. A stronger US Dollar and persistent concerns over rising trade tensions are weighing heavily on the Yen, as markets brace for the impact of US tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1. 

Former US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese imports, coupled with the threat of retaliatory action, has sparked renewed fears over Japan’s economic resilience. The country’s Q1 GDP contracted, real wages in May dropped at their steepest pace in nearly two years, and political uncertainty is rising ahead of the July 20 House of Councillors election. Recent polls suggest the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may struggle to retain its majority, further dampening investor confidence. 

These developments have led traders to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. The combination of domestic headwinds and external pressure is weakening the JPY, while the US Dollar continues to gain on expectations that rising tariffs will stoke inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. 

The Fed’s June decision to hold interest rates steady, along with a strong US jobs report, has reinforced the belief that rate cuts may be delayed until at least October. The FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, will be closely watched for insights into the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets currently anticipate up to 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end. 

Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds 

Technically, USD/JPY’s break and close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) — for the first time since February — signals potential for further gains. Positive momentum on the daily chart supports a move toward the 147.60–147.65 resistance area, with the 148.00 handle, a key June high, in sight. 

On the downside, immediate support lies near 146.50, with the 100-day SMA just below 146.00 acting as a critical pivot. A decisive break below this level could shift momentum in favor of bears, opening room for deeper losses. 

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NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5700 on weaker US PMI data

During the early Asian session on Thursday, the NZD/USD pair was trading slightly higher at 0.5690. The Greenback falls against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as US economic data disappoints. Investors will keenly monitor developments in the rekindled trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. 

The weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) could weigh on the Greenback and generate a tailwind for the pair. The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3.

On the other hand, New Zealand’s fourth-quarter employment report will put the RBNZ on pace to decrease the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% this month. Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday that the country’s unemployment rate increased to 5.1% in Q4, up from 4.8% the previous quarter. This result was a four-year high and exceeded the 25-year average of 4.8%. Rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may decrease interest rates may further impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

“In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% at the February 19 meeting and the policy rate to through around 3.00% over the next 12 months. Bottom line: NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD,” noted Société Générale’s FX analysts. 

On Tuesday, the finance ministry in China unveiled a package of tariffs on various US products such as crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos in a sharp response to an announcement made by US President Donald Trump imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Further, China served notice to several companies including Google for potential sanctions in response to Trump’s tariffs. Any sign of uncertainty or a rising trade war tension may see the China-proxy Kiwi being dragged lower, as China remains one of the major trading partners to New Zealand.

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JPY Recovers Losses vs. USD, Bullish Outlook Intact

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses Against USD; Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

The Japanese yen (JPY) cut some of its intraday losses against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, bringing the USD/JPY pair back below the mid-155.00s during the early European session. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions showed conversations about the possibility of further hikes in interest rates. Furthermore, Tokyo’s core inflation increased at the quickest annual rate in nearly a year, raising expectations of further policy tightening by the BoJ, which supports the JPY.

Beyond monetary policy, narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economies, including the US, alongside a broader risk-off sentiment, provide additional support to the safe-haven JPY. However, concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s newly announced trade tariffs limit the yen’s upside. Meanwhile, the USD remains broadly strong, allowing the USD/JPY pair to maintain its positive momentum for a second consecutive day, ahead of the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI report.

Yen Gains Traction Amid BoJ Rate Hike Bets and Trade War Fears

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, effective Tuesday.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, and China’s foreign ministry all replied quickly, indicating probable retaliation. The US Dollar continues to climb, approaching a two-year high last hit in January, supporting the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

The Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions, released on Monday, showed that policymakers are thinking about additional rate hikes, though this has failed to appreciably lift the JPY.

Board members of the Bank of Japan stressed the need of continuing to raise interest rates if economic conditions and inflation remain stable.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the government is closely monitoring the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the yen amid concerns over potential economic fallout.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reiterated Japan’s commitment to achieving the BoJ’s 2% inflation target while implementing measures to offset rising living costs.

The US-Japan yield spread remains near a multi-week low, which, coupled with risk aversion, could help stabilize the yen in the near term.

Investors now turn their focus to key US economic data, starting with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Near 156.25; Bears in Control Below This Level

From a technical standpoint, last week’s strong rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally and the subsequent upside move favor bullish traders. However, additional gains beyond 156.00 may encounter resistance near last week’s swing high at 156.25. A sustained break above this level could spark a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards:

  • 156.70-156.75 resistance
  • 157.00 psychological mark
  • 157.60 horizontal barrier
  • Potential extension towards 158.00, with an ultimate target at the 158.85-158.90 multi-month high from January 10

Conversely, on the downside:-

  • 155.00 serves as immediate support
  • Below this, watch for key levels at 154.55-154.50 and 154.00
  • A break below the 153.70 January low could accelerate the decline towards 153.30 and eventually 153.00

While the JPY is exhibiting some resilience, the overall trend remains unpredictable, with market participants intently watching economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

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Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rise, Fed Decision Looms

Australian Dollar Slides Amid Rising Odds of RBA Rate Cuts, Fed Decision in Focus

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak for a third consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD), weighed down by softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, matching the previous quarter but missing the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI eased to 2.4% from 2.8% in Q3, below the market forecast of 2.5%. Despite December’s monthly CPI ticking up to 2.5% YoY, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2%-3% target range. Meanwhile, the RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI slowed to 3.2% YoY, its weakest pace in three years, slightly under the anticipated 3.3%.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed confidence that “the worst of the inflation challenge is behind us” and that a “soft landing” is increasingly likely. The cooling inflation strengthens the case for an RBA rate cut in February. The central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing the need for inflation to “sustainably” return to target before considering a rate reduction.

AUD Pressured by Risk Aversion, Trump’s Tariff Threats

The AUD faces additional headwinds from risk-off sentiment following tariff threats by former US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of key commodities, including computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to boost US manufacturing.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm around 108.00 as traders turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, indicate near-certainty that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for guidance on future policy shifts.

Concerns over the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies add another layer of uncertainty. US Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino noted, “A number of White House proposals appear inflationary, which could keep the Fed in check.” Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed universal tariffs on US imports starting at 2.5%, with Trump reportedly favoring even higher rates.

China’s Economic Slowdown Adds Pressure on AUD

The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to China’s economic struggles. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1, missing expectations, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.2 from 52.2. As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s weak data weighs heavily on the AUD.

Despite China’s recent stimulus measures, including a $7.25 billion investment in index products and long-term stock investments, concerns persist. Industrial profits fell 3.3% YoY in 2024, marking a third consecutive year of contraction, driven by weak demand, deflationary pressures, and a prolonged property sector slump.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Turns Bearish Below 0.6250

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6230 on Wednesday after breaking below the ascending channel on the daily chart, signaling a shift toward a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, reinforcing downside momentum.

A decisive break below key support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel strengthens the bearish outlook, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward 0.6131—its lowest level since April 2020. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6256. A rebound above this level could reintroduce a bullish bias, with the next upside target near 0.6360.

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US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

The US dollar strengthened significantly against all major currencies after President Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary reignited concerns about potential tariffs, raising fears that trade policies may return to the forefront. Risk-sensitive currencies, particularly those tied to China, saw sharp declines, while the euro weakened amid speculation that the European Union could soon face tariff pressures. Simultaneously, the Japanese yen took a hit as traders hedged against potential US inflation spikes and rising Treasury yields.

This market turbulence followed a Financial Times report indicating that Scott Bessent, the newly appointed Treasury Department official, supports a phased approach to implementing universal tariffs on US imports. The initial proposal suggests starting with a 2.5% tariff rate. However, President Trump hinted at a much broader scope, potentially targeting a range of imports from steel to semiconductor chips and suggesting higher tariff rates over time.

The administration’s “moderate” proposal involves a gradual increase in tariffs, reaching 20% over eight months in increments of 2.5% per month. This timeline has triggered speculation about more extreme scenarios and raised questions about the global trade concessions needed to halt these measures. Bessent’s approach, which allows businesses time to adjust, could also spark a rush of imports and exports to avoid higher future costs.

Amid these developments, financial markets are grappling with the potential outcomes. Traders are assessing whether the proposed tariff measures are fully priced in and evaluating the likelihood of de-escalation through negotiation.

On the positive side, any concessions or agreements that delay or reduce tariffs could stabilize markets. However, the risks of escalating tariffs, particularly if negotiations fail, remain a significant concern. Higher tariffs could disrupt global trade and have far-reaching implications for currency valuations.

While we initially favored long positions on the dollar, the unfolding tariff narrative has introduced significant uncertainty. Staying prepared for sudden shifts in policy and market dynamics is now crucial as the situation continues to evolve.

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Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) ended its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the AUD/USD pair trading flat following the release of mixed Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. As a close trade partner, Australia’s economy is heavily influenced by China’s economic performance.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, down from 50.1 in December, missing market expectations. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 from the previous month’s 52.2. These weaker-than-expected figures suggest a slowdown in China’s economic recovery, weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.

Despite fresh stimulus measures from China aimed at revitalizing its equity markets, the AUD struggled to gain momentum. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a second round of long-term stock investment pilot programs valued at 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). However, these measures have done little to alleviate investor concerns about China’s economic challenges.

Risk Aversion Rises Amid Trump’s Trade Tariff Push

Broader market sentiment took a hit as reports emerged that US President Donald Trump’s advisers are pushing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February 1, bypassing negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s willingness to move swiftly on tariffs follows similar actions taken against Colombia, raising fears of escalating trade tensions and dampening demand for riskier assets like the Australian Dollar.

Adding to the negative outlook, China’s Industrial Profits declined by 3.3% year-over-year in 2024 to CNY 7,431.05 billion, marking the third consecutive year of contraction. This downturn highlights ongoing economic headwinds, including weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property sector.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Bullish Setup

The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6290 on Monday, showing signs of upward momentum within an ascending channel on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 50, reflecting mild optimism in the market.

On the upside, the pair could retest the psychological resistance level at 0.6300, with the next target near the channel’s upper boundary around 0.6350.

Support levels are found at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6265, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6254. A stronger support lies near the channel’s lower boundary around 0.6240, which could act as a safety net in case of a downside correction.

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NZD/USD Struggles

NZD/USD Struggles Below 0.5700 Amid Trump’s Tariff Plans and Dovish RBNZ Expectations

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading near 0.5675 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces headwinds due to uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China and the dovish outlook of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicated a continued decline in underlying inflation, strengthening expectations of additional rate cuts by the RBNZ. Swap markets now estimate a nearly 90% chance of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut on February 19, building on the two cuts already implemented in this cycle. The RBNZ is projected to deliver a total of 100 bps in rate cuts through the remainder of 2025.

Meanwhile, the downside for the pair could be capped by recent comments from Trump. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump called for immediate interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” Trump said.

Investors are now closely watching for further details on Trump’s tariff policies, alongside key US economic data releases. The flash US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for January will be a key focus later on Friday, along with the release of US Existing Home Sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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