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GBP/USD Ascends Towards 1.2700 Prior

GBP/USD Remains Below 1.2700 Before Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony

GBP/USD Remains Below 1.2700 Before Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony

In the early Asian trading session on Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair was observed holding below the significant 1.2700 mark, indicating a slight downtick influenced by a resurgence in the US Dollar (USD). This currency movement sets the stage for a day filled with key economic events, including the UK S&P Global Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the eagerly awaited testimony of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The pair was trading near 1.2695, reflecting a modest 0.08% decline from the previous day.

A recent statement by Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic has further stirred market speculation. On Monday, Bostic expressed his expectation of an initial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the third quarter of this year, followed by a pause to assess the impact of this policy change on the US economy. Market participants, guided by the CME FedWatch Tool, are currently pricing in a meager 3.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate reduction at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March.

Adding to the complexity of the market dynamics was Tuesday’s report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM survey revealed that the US Services PMI dropped to 52.6 in February, down from 53.4 in January, falling short of market expectations set at 53.0. This decline in the PMI points towards a slower expansion in the services sector, a critical component of the US economy.

In the UK, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s speech at the Spring Budget announcement drew attention. Hunt unveiled a significant cut in national insurance by 2p, signaling a potential shift in fiscal policy. Alongside this development, investors are also anticipating the Bank of England’s (BoE) move towards interest rate cuts by August, aiming to bring inflation back to the 2% target, followed by a predicted increase.

A major focal point for the day is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress. This event is closely monitored by investors, as Powell’s remarks could provide insights into the Fed’s future monetary policy direction. Adding to the week’s significance is the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday, with expectations of an addition of 200,000 jobs in February. These events are crucial for traders who are keenly watching the GBP/USD pair, looking for trading opportunities influenced by these economic indicators and policy decisions.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Gains Momentum in the Mid-1.0800 Range Due to a Weakening US Dollar

EUR/USD Gains Momentum in the Mid-1.0800 Range Due to a Weakening US Dollar

As the new week commences, the EUR/USD currency pair exhibits a positive trajectory in the early trading hours of Monday in Asia. This uptrend in one of the major currency pairs is primarily underpinned by a diminishing strength of the US Dollar (USD). A pivotal moment for investors this week will be the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday, where it is widely anticipated that interest rates will remain unaltered. Currently, the EUR/USD is trading at a value of 1.0845, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% for the day.

This recent development in the EUR/USD pair’s performance is happening against a backdrop where several policymakers from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have expressed that future decisions on interest rate cuts will be heavily influenced by emerging economic data. Prominent figures such as Boston Fed President Susan Collins and New York’s John Williams have hinted that the first rate reduction could be feasible later in the year. In a similar vein, Raphael Bostic from the Atlanta Fed anticipates a shift towards an easing policy by this summer.

Adding to the complexity of the market dynamics is the latest US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which declined to 47.8 in February, falling from its previous mark of 49.1 and not meeting the market expectations. This data, released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), also highlighted a decrease in the New Orders Index to 49.2, indicating a contraction. Moreover, the Production Index was recorded at 48.4, with the Employment Index at a lower 45.9.

On the European front, the ECB is cautiously waiting for more indicators, particularly regarding the relaxation of wage pressures, before making any significant adjustments to its monetary policy stance. It is highly likely that the ECB will maintain the current interest rates in its upcoming March meeting. Market participants are keenly awaiting the post-meeting press conference for insights into future policy directions. Any hawkish comments from the central bank could potentially bolster the Euro (EUR) and create a challenging environment for the EUR/USD pair.

Looking ahead, the focus will shift to the Eurozone Services PMI, due for release on Tuesday, followed by the German Trade data and Eurozone Retail Sales on Wednesday. If these datasets surpass expectations, they could mitigate concerns about a possible recession in the Eurozone. The spotlight will then turn to the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday, which precedes the eagerly awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) announcement. These events collectively hold significant potential to influence the trajectory of the EUR/USD pair in the week ahead.

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GBP/USD Modestly Recovers

GBP/USD Modestly Recovers Near 1.2630, Limited Upside Potential

GBP/USD Modestly Recovers Near 1.2630, Limited Upside Potential

During the Asian trading session on Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair witnessed a revival of buying interest, breaking a two-day losing streak that had led it to a one-week low in the region of 1.2615-1.2610 just a day earlier. The pair’s spot prices are currently hovering around the 1.2630-1.2635 zone. This change in momentum is largely attributed to the dynamics surrounding the US Dollar (USD).

The market’s attention was particularly drawn to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data released on Thursday. The report indicated that annual inflation in January reached its lowest point in three years, fueling speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This speculation, however, didn’t provide much support to the USD Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of other major currencies. The DXY struggled to build on its recent recovery from a critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), partly due to the prevailing risk-on market sentiment. This sentiment tends to reduce the appeal of the USD as a safe-haven asset, thereby offering some support to the GBP/USD pair.

On the British side, the Pound (GBP) is finding support from the Bank of England (BoE) policymakers’ efforts to counter market expectations for imminent interest rate cuts. This stance has lent a positive tone to the GBP/USD pair. However, there is a growing consensus that the Fed might delay any interest rate reductions until their June policy meeting, a view reinforced by hawkish comments from several Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials. This outlook has helped sustain high US Treasury bond yields, which could provide a boost to the USD and potentially restrain bullish traders in the GBP/USD market.

Investors are now focusing on the upcoming release of the final UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and a scheduled speech by BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill for fresh impetus. Additionally, the early North American session will bring attention to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and comments from Fed officials. These events, along with US bond yield movements and broader risk sentiment, are expected to influence the USD and create short-term trading opportunities in the GBP/USD pair.

Despite the current uptick, the GBP/USD pair appears set to close the week with losses, particularly in anticipation of significant US economic data releases scheduled for the start of the new month.

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EUR/USD Falls Amid Risk-Aversion

EUR/USD Falls Amid Risk-Aversion Before Eurozone, US Data; Trades Near 1.0840

EUR/USD Falls Amid Risk-Aversion Before Eurozone, US Data; Trades Near 1.0840

The Euro/US Dollar exchange rate, known as EUR/USD, has seen a decrease, reaching nearly 1.0840 in the Asian market on Wednesday. This drop is mainly because traders are being very careful due to some important economic reports that are expected to be released soon. These reports include the Euro Zone Economic Sentiment Indicator for February and the preliminary data on the United States’ economic growth for the last quarter (Q4) of the year.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the US dollar against other major currencies, is trying to rise due to the cautious mood in the market. However, the lower interest rates offered on US government bonds (also known as Treasury yields) might be causing the US dollar to face some challenges. At the moment, the DXY has improved slightly to about 103.90, with the interest rates for 2-year and 10-year US government bonds at 4.68% and 4.29% respectively.

Recently, there was a small increase of 0.1% in the US Housing Price Index, which was less than the expected 0.3% and the previous 0.4%. Also, the orders for long-lasting goods made in the US fell by 6.1%, which was more than the anticipated 4.5% drop. According to predictions by the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of the US Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March are now only 1%. However, there’s a 21% chance of a rate cut in May and almost a 50% chance in June.

On the other side, the Euro might see some positive effects from recent statements by the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde. She mentioned that even though inflation is getting closer to the ECB’s target, the bank plans to keep its current policies for some time.

In Germany, a survey about consumer confidence for March showed a result of -29, which was in line with expectations and slightly better than February’s -29.6. Later this week, more data from Germany, including retail sales and consumer price inflation, will provide further insights into the economic situation.

Experts at Commerzbank are paying close attention to the inflation data coming out on Friday, but they don’t see any clear signs that the Euro will weaken. On the other hand, Kit Juckes, a top strategist at Société Générale, believes that whether the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank reduces interest rates first or more aggressively will be crucial in deciding the direction of the EUR/USD exchange rate this year.

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EUR/GBP Nears 0.8540 Before

EUR/GBP Nears 0.8540 Before ECB’s Lagarde Speech

EUR/GBP Nears 0.8540 Before ECB’s Lagarde Speech

The EUR/GBP currency pair witnessed a halt in its three-day downtrend, observing a modest rise to approach 0.8540 during Monday’s Asian trading session. This upward movement is primarily attributed to the Euro (EUR) gaining strength following hawkish remarks from members of the European Central Bank (ECB). In addition, the ECB’s Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts for January revealed a cautious approach by policymakers towards easing monetary policy. The consensus among them highlighted that it was too early to consider discussions on rate reductions.

Traders are now keenly awaiting the speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, scheduled for later on Monday, for further cues on the ECB’s monetary policy direction.

Recent comments from various ECB officials have contributed to shaping the market sentiment. For instance, ECB member Yannis Stournaras projected a potential rate cut in June, dismissing any likelihood of such action in March. Conversely, Joachim Nagel, another ECB policymaker, expressed confidence in controlling inflation, stressing the need for a data-driven approach to policy decisions rather than emulating other central banks.

On the UK front, the decline in consumer confidence for February has exerted downward pressure on the British Pound (GBP), thereby providing support to the EUR/GBP pair. The GfK Consumer Confidence index for the UK, released on Friday, registered a disappointing -21, falling short of market expectations of -18 and deteriorating from the previous -19. This indicates a weakening in consumer confidence regarding the UK’s economic activity for the month of February.

Analysts at MUFG Bank have observed that recent PMI data from the UK suggests an end to the technical recession experienced in the latter half of the previous year. They anticipate that the improvement in global risk sentiment will likely lead the Bank of England (BoE) to adopt a wait-and-see approach, in line with other central banks. There is also speculation about the UK inflation rate hitting the 2% target by April.

Adding to the array of economic speeches, Huw Pill, the Chief Economist at the Bank of England, is also slated to address the public on Monday. His insights will be closely monitored for indications of the BoE’s future monetary policy actions and their potential impact on the GBP. As the market navigates through these developments, the EUR/GBP pair’s performance remains a key focus, reflecting broader economic trends and monetary policy expectations in Europe and the UK.

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EUR/USD Stabilizes Near

EUR/USD Stabilizes Near 1.0820 After PMI-Driven Volatile Session

EUR/USD Stabilizes Near 1.0820 After PMI-Driven Volatile Session

The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited consolidation patterns following a tumultuous trading session triggered by the release of significant Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from both Europe and the United States on Thursday. During the early hours of Friday’s Asian trading session, the Euro (EUR) demonstrated stability, hovering around the 1.0820 mark, as investors evaluated the implications of mixed data regarding private sector business activities within the European Union (EU).

The day’s trading dynamics were heavily influenced by the latest PMI figures from the Eurozone and Germany, revealing a complex economic landscape. February’s PMI data showed a divergence in performance between the services and manufacturing sectors. While the preliminary Services PMIs for both the Eurozone and Germany indicated an upward trend, the Manufacturing PMIs did not meet market expectations, reflecting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector.

Amidst this backdrop, the European Central Bank (ECB) released its Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts for January, showcasing a cautious stance among policymakers. The minutes revealed a consensus against discussing rate cuts at the current juncture, underlining the need for prudence in monetary policy adjustments. ECB officials acknowledged some positive developments in inflation trends, adopting a more optimistic outlook compared to previous years. However, they were unanimous in their view that potential downward revisions in March’s inflation projections would not automatically warrant rate cuts.

Across the Atlantic, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained firm, trading near 103.90. This strength was partly underpinned by the rising yields of US Treasury bonds, which stood at 4.71% for the 2-year bonds and 4.33% for the 10-year bonds at the time of writing. Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) found support following the release of encouraging labor market data from the United States.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that weekly Initial Jobless Claims had fallen to 201K for the week ending on February 16, significantly below the market forecast of 218K and the previous figure of 213K. This data suggests a robust labor market, which could have implications for the broader economy.

Regarding PMI data, the S&P Global US Services PMI recorded a figure of 51.3 in February, slightly below expectations of 52.0 and the previous month’s 52.5. Conversely, the Manufacturing PMI showed an improvement, reaching 51.5, which exceeded the anticipated 50.5 and the prior figure of 50.7. The US Composite PMI, however, declined to 51.4 in February from 52.0 in the previous month.

Further bolstering the US Dollar’s position were hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. They emphasized the unlikelihood of interest rate cuts in the near term, suggesting a continued focus on controlling inflation and supporting economic stability. This stance may provide additional strength to the USD in the international currency markets.

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Focus Shifts to FOMC Minutes

GBP/USD Remains Steady Above 1.2600, Focus Shifts to FOMC Minutes

GBP/USD Remains Steady Above 1.2600, Focus Shifts to FOMC Minutes

During the early hours of Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair saw a modest rise, climbing above the 1.2600 mark. This upward movement is largely attributed to positive remarks from Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), which provided a boost to the Pound Sterling (GBP). At present, the major currency pair is trading around 1.2625, showing no significant change for the day.

The shift in investor sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) anticipated interest rate cuts has been a key factor influencing the pair’s dynamics. This change in outlook followed the release of the U.S. January Producer Price Index (PPI) data last week, which signaled persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy. Consequently, market participants are now aligning their expectations to forecast the Fed’s initial rate cuts to occur between May and June during the monetary policy meeting. The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) minutes from January’s policy meeting is eagerly awaited, as it is expected to shed light on the Fed’s future interest rate trajectory.

Tuesday’s testimony by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey on inflation and the economic outlook played a significant role in the Pound’s strength. Governor Bailey expressed his comfort with the market’s projections of interest rate cuts in 2023, citing signs of recovery in the British economy after its plunge into a recession in late 2023. He further noted that inflation does not necessarily have to fall below the 2% target before the initiation of rate cuts, suggesting the possibility of a rate decrease within the year, though without specifying an exact timeline.

As the week progresses, the focus will shift to the release of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. These minutes are anticipated to provide deeper insights into the Fed policymakers’ hesitancy to commence policy easing in the first quarter of 2024. Additionally, the upcoming release of the preliminary U.S. S&P Global PMI for February on Thursday is another significant event on the economic calendar. These developments are expected to offer clearer directional cues for the GBP/USD currency pair.

Overall, the GBP/USD pair’s trajectory is being shaped by a combination of optimistic domestic factors from the UK and broader economic indicators from the US. The upcoming economic releases and policy minutes will be crucial in determining the near-term movement of this currency pair, as traders and investors alike gauge the economic health and policy stances of both the UK and the US.

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Steady Stock Futures Ahead of Inflation Report

Steady Stock Futures Ahead of Inflation Report

Stock futures exhibited little change as investors geared up for the release of the August producer price index, a key indicator of wholesale inflation. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by a mere 11 points, equivalent to a 0.03% gain. S&P 500 futures saw a slightly stronger uptick of 0.09%, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched 0.1% higher.

The prior trading day had been mixed, with the Dow, comprising 30 major stocks, declining for the second consecutive day, resulting in a 0.2% drop primarily due to 3M’s performance. On the other hand, the Nasdaq Composite closed with nearly a 0.3% gain, and the S&P 500 added 0.1%.

A significant event on traders’ radar was the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which had a notable impact on market sentiment. The core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, registered a 0.3% increase from the previous month and a 4.3% rise compared to last year. These figures slightly exceeded expectations, as economists had projected a 0.2% increase month-over-month and a 4.3% year-over-year rise. Headline inflation, which includes all items, surged by 0.6% on a monthly basis and 3.7% on a yearly basis, in line with market expectations.

Despite the CPI data, it’s unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve’s approach at its upcoming policy meeting, scheduled to commence on September 19. Fed funds futures pricing data from Wednesday indicated a 97% probability that interest rates would remain unchanged next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Nevertheless, even if the central bank opts to keep rates steady this time, market volatility is expected to persist in the coming months. According to Fed funds futures pricing data, there’s approximately a 48% chance that rates will increase at the November meeting. Alex McGrath, Chief Investment Officer at NorthEnd Private Wealth, noted, “We believe volatility will be with us through year-end as the risk-on assets that dragged the market higher through 2023 will begin to look expensive in the face of elevated yields.”

Looking ahead, another critical inflation metric, the August Producer Price Index (PPI), is scheduled for release on Thursday. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate a 0.4% increase for August, following a surprising 0.3% rise in wholesale prices in July. Additionally, retail sales data is expected before the market opens.

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Mixed Sentiment Ahead of US CPI Keeps Asian Stock Market Trading Sideways

Mixed Sentiment Ahead of US CPI Keeps Asian Stock Market Trading Sideways

Asian stock markets are in a bit of a mixed situation right now, and people are waiting for some important information about the cost of things in the US, called the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The US Dollar is getting a bit more stable, not going up or down as much as before, and it’s around 104.55.

In China, their main stock index, the Shanghai Composite, has gone up a little bit, about 0.10%, to 3,145 points. Another index in China, called the Shenzhen Component, has gone up a bit more, by about 0.29%, to 10,411. But in South Korea, their stock market, known as the Kospi, has gone down a bit, about 0.50%. On the other hand, Japan’s stock market, the Nikkei, is doing better, going up by about 0.61%.

In China, the cost of things for people (we call it the Consumer Price Index or CPI) has gone up a tiny bit in August, by 0.1%. Before that, it was going down by 0.3%. This is a small sign that the economy might be getting more stable. The price of things for the month also went up as expected, by 0.3%.

In Japan, the Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, thinks that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will do things to make sure prices go up, and they will work closely with the government to do that. This is because the interest rates in Japan have gone up a lot, and people think the BOJ might change the rules about interest rates.

The head of the BOJ, Kazuo Ueda, has said that by the end of the year, they will have enough information to decide if they should keep the interest rates low or not. This makes things interesting for Japan’s money policy.

Next, everyone will be watching the US to see how much prices went up in August, which will be out on Wednesday. People expect that prices in the US went up by 0.5%, and a core number that is important for interest rates will stay at 0.2%. This tells us if the US might change their interest rates in the future. 

Also, we will look at China’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers on Friday. These numbers are important because they show if China’s economy is healthy or not and if it will affect the world. So, people who invest in the stock market need to be careful and watch what happens in these markets because things might change quickly.

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Chinese Property Stocks Fail to Ease Growth Concerns, Bears Control Asian Stock Market

Chinese Property Stocks Fail to Ease Growth Concerns, Bears Control Asian Stock Market

The Asian stock market is not doing so well today. Even though China’s property stocks are getting better, the overall situation is not great. People who trade stocks are being careful because they saw big losses yesterday. They are also waiting for a report called the US ISM Services PMI.

A thing called the MSCI’s Index of Asia-Pacific shares (excluding Japan) has gone down by almost 1%. But in Japan, something called the Nikkei 225 has gone up by 0.75% in the morning.

Yesterday, a number for China’s Caixin Services PMI in August was not so good. It was 51.8, which is lower than the 54.1 from before. This made people worry about China’s economy. There is also a problem between the US and China, and the US Commerce Secretary talked about it. She said that the US will keep taxes on things from China until they look at it again in four years.

Some good things about the US have made the stock market not feel great. There was a report about US Factory Orders, and it was not good. People thought it would be -0.1%, but it was -2.1% for July. But if you don’t count some things, it went up by 0.8%. They also sent out more stuff, and they have more stuff in their stores now. Some people from the US Federal Reserve also talked about money stuff. One person said they want to be careful with money, and another person said they don’t want to make money cheaper.

Even though some news from China said they might help the real estate business, the stock market in China is not doing well. It’s like what’s happening in the US stock market and something called the S&P 500 Futures. The US Dollar is also strong, which means it’s worth a lot compared to other money. Gold and oil prices are not changing much. In New Zealand, Hong Kong, and India, stocks are not doing well either.

In Australia, the numbers looked better than people thought, but it didn’t make the stock market better. It went down by 0.80%.

In the future, what happens in the stock market will depend on what happens in China’s economy and how the US does. We need to watch carefully to see what will happen next.

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China concerns cause European shares to hit one-week low; attention now turns to PMIs

China concerns cause European shares to hit one-week low; attention now turns to PMIs

European stock markets took a bit of a tumble on Tuesday, dropping to their lowest point in a whole week. This was mostly because folks were getting worried about China’s economy not doing so great. See, if China’s economy isn’t doing well, it can affect the global economy, and that makes investors nervous. They’re afraid that a slow recovery in China might mean tough times for everyone else too.

One of the main stock market indicators in Europe, called the STOXX 600, went down by 0.6% on Tuesday. It was the fifth day in a row that it went down. The sectors in Europe that are closely connected to China, like the ones dealing with fancy stuff and building materials, were the ones taking the biggest hits. That’s because new data showed that China’s service industry, which includes things like restaurants and hotels, grew at a slower pace in August, the slowest it has been in eight months.

Later in the day, we were waiting for some news about how businesses in Europe were doing, and it didn’t look great. They were expected to confirm that business activity had actually gone down in August. This news caused some big companies like Roche to see their stock prices drop by 1.1%. Another bank called Credit Agricole saw a drop of 3.0% because Goldman Sachs said it was a good idea to sell their stock. Commerzbank, another bank in Germany, also had a tough time with a 3.3% drop because Barclays said it was a bit heavy on their stock, giving it an “underweight” rating.

So, in simple terms, European shares went down because people were worried about China’s economy, and they’re also keeping a close eye on what the European Central Bank might do with interest rates. Some big companies got hit too because of not-so-great business news. It’s a bit like a rollercoaster ride for the stock market right now, with ups and downs that can make investors feel a bit queasy.

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Mixed Performance in Asian Stock Markets Ahead of Key US PCE Data

Mixed Performance in Asian Stock Markets Ahead of Key US PCE Data

Asian stock markets are giving mixed results on Thursday as investors eagerly wait for the PCE Price Index. This index is an important way to measure how prices for things are going up, and the Federal Reserve likes to watch it. The index is coming out before the big Nonfarm Payrolls report for August. Right now, China’s Shanghai stock index has gone down by 0.60% to 3,117 points, the Shenzhen index has gone down by 0.44% to 10,416 points, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has gone down by 2.02% to 18,401 points, South Korea’s Kospi index has gone down by 0.43%, and Japan’s Nikkei index has gone up by 0.77%.

In China, people are worried because factories and services aren’t doing as well this month. This might make the government do things to help the economy, like giving it a boost. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said that China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) got a little better in August, but it’s still not as good as what people thought it would be. The NBS Services PMI also went down a bit. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said they’re going to give more money to private companies to help the private economy grow.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) said they want to wait longer before they start doing things to control the money supply. Retail Sales in Japan went up by 6.8% in July compared to last year, which is better than what people expected. But the production of things in factories, called Industrial Production, went down by 2.0% in July.

Later on Thursday, we’ll find out how much the economy of India grew in the first quarter of the year. People expect it to have grown by 7.7%, which is better than before.

Looking forward, people will pay attention to the US Core PCE Price Index, how many people are asking for jobless help, and the Chicago PMI later in the day. On Friday, people will watch how well factories are doing in China in August and how many jobs the US added.

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Dow Futures Up, Market Rally Continues; Jobs Data in Focus

Dow Futures Up, Market Rally Continues; Jobs Data in Focus

The positive momentum in Dow Jones futures ahead of Tuesday’s opening was mirrored by upward movement in S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures during overnight trading, indicating a buoyant start to the trading session.

This week, the ongoing vigor of the market rally remains a focal point as investors turn their attention towards the eagerly awaited Friday jobs report, a pivotal event in the closing week of August. The implications of this report are far-reaching, potentially influencing expectations around interest rate shifts. A strong report wouldn’t necessarily translate to an imminent rate hike, while a less robust report, with payroll gains hovering around 100,000, could potentially take the possibility of a rate hike off the table. Simultaneously, market watchers are gearing up for the release of the Commerce Department’s data on personal income and spending for July, an influential indicator of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve, scheduled for Thursday.

In terms of earnings, Salesforce.com (CRM), a key player within the Dow Jones, is poised to disclose its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday. Notably, this leaves just Nike (NKE) and Walgreens (WBA) as the remaining components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average yet to announce their earnings reports.

In addition, several software companies are slated to release their earnings, including MongoDB (MDB), Nutanix (NTNX), Samsara (IOT), as well as security software entities such as CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Okta (OKTA).

Reflecting on the previous day’s market performance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average showcased a commendable 0.6% increase, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite demonstrated gains of 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, indicating broad-based market positivity.

Major players in the technology sector exhibited noteworthy movement, with electric vehicle behemoth Tesla (TSLA) recording a modest 0.1% increase on Monday. Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) experienced a substantial rebound of 1.8%, reflecting renewed investor confidence. Meanwhile, prominent tech giants on the Dow Jones index, Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), both registered positive strides. Apple’s shares rose by 0.9%, and Microsoft’s shares climbed by 0.2%.

Further highlighting influential market leaders, Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META) made noteworthy gains, with GOOGL’s stock increasing by 0.9% and Meta’s shares surging by 1.7%.

Among the stocks garnering attention within the ongoing market correction are Baker Hughes (BKR), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Fastly (FSLY), and Tidewater (TDW), alongside Dow Jones stalwarts IBM (IBM), Merck (MRK), and Visa (V), identified as pivotal stocks to watch during this period of market flux.

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Nvidia’s AI Success to Revive Nasdaq 100 After Challenging August

Nvidia’s AI Success to Revive Nasdaq 100 After Challenging August

Nvidia’s impressive achievements in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) are having a positive impact on the performance of stocks within the Nasdaq 100 index. Despite a rather challenging month of August, the dynamics changed dramatically thanks to Nvidia’s strong financial results. The company managed to exceed its own ambitious sales projections, and the driving force behind this success was the robust demand for AI-related products and services. Interestingly, this favorable development also had a ripple effect, benefiting other tech giants such as Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom. Consequently, the future outlook for the Nasdaq 100 has become considerably brighter as a result of Nvidia’s accomplishments in the AI realm.

At the onset of August, concerns were mounting due to a perceived slump in the tech sector’s performance. However, Nvidia’s latest financial results have effectively dispelled these apprehensions and reinforced the belief that investing in AI is indeed a prudent choice. This affirmation carries significant weight as it aligns with the sentiment that investors have held towards tech stocks throughout the year.

Nvidia’s announcement that they are anticipating approximately $16 billion in revenue over the next three months comes as a surprise, especially when contrasted with the market experts’ initial estimate of around $12.5 billion. Furthermore, the company is actively pursuing a stock buyback initiative worth $25 billion, which signals a strong sense of confidence in their own prospects.

Despite a recent 4% decline in value, the Nasdaq 100 index is currently trading at roughly 24 times its projected earnings for the upcoming year. Although this figure has decreased from the 27 times multiple observed in July, it remains notably higher than the historical average of 21 times over the last decade. This suggests that investors continue to place a premium on the tech sector’s growth potential.

In a broader context, the encouraging performance of software companies such as Autodesk, Snowflake, and Splunk serves as additional evidence of the tech industry’s resilience and prosperity. Their positive post-market reports are indicative of a larger trend within the sector.

In conclusion, Nvidia’s accomplishments in the AI domain have not only rejuvenated the Nasdaq 100 index after a sluggish August but also solidified the notion that AI-focused investments hold substantial promise. The surge in Nvidia’s sales, alongside the impressive performance of other software giants, underlines the enduring strength of the tech industry, which is certainly a cause for optimism in the market.

 

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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EUR/USD Near Two-Month Low, Market Awaits US CPI for Direction

EUR/USD Hovers Near Two-Month Low, Remains Vulnerable Below Mid-1.0900s Ahead of US CPI

EUR/USD Hovers Near Two-Month Low, Remains Vulnerable Below Mid-1.0900s Ahead of US CPI

The EUR/USD pair remains confined to a tight range below the mid-1.0900s during Thursday’s Asian session, consolidating its recent losses after hitting a nearly two-month low the previous day.

The U.S. Dollar (USD) is holding firm near its highest level since August 16, as traders have largely dismissed the likelihood of a 50-basis-point (bps) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. Additionally, current market pricing suggests over a 20% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged next month. This view was reinforced by the hawkish tone in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes released on Wednesday. Elevated yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, which remain above the 4% mark, continue to support the USD and pressure the EUR/USD pair.

On the European side, the euro remains under pressure as markets increasingly expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates by 25 bps at both of its remaining policy meetings this year. Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to benefit the safe-haven U.S. Dollar, making further downside for the EUR/USD pair more likely. However, traders might hold off on committing to new bearish positions until after the release of the U.S. inflation data.

The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), set for release during the North American session later on Thursday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday, will be key in shaping expectations regarding the Fed’s rate outlook. These reports will likely drive near-term USD demand and provide fresh direction for the EUR/USD pair.

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USD/CHF Gains Momentum Above 0.8550 Ahead of FOMC Minutes

USD/CHF Gains Momentum Above 0.8550 Ahead of FOMC Minutes

USD/CHF Gains Momentum Above 0.8550 Ahead of FOMC Minutes

The USD/CHF pair is trading higher, hovering around 0.8575 during early European trading on Wednesday. This strength comes from a firmer US Dollar (USD), supported by fading expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors are now focused on the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes later today.

Last Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report boosted the Greenback, prompting markets to scale back their expectations for significant interest rate cuts. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that, as inflation trends soften, further rate cuts are likely. On the other hand, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized that the labor market remains resilient, and while inflation is improving, price levels have not yet reached target goals.

As the week progresses, attention will shift to Thursday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which could provide further insight into the Fed’s future rate decisions. The headline CPI is anticipated to increase by 2.3% year-on-year (YoY) in September, while core CPI is projected to rise by 3.2% YoY. Any signs of easing inflation could weigh on the USD and potentially limit gains for the USD/CHF pair.

In a geopolitical development, a senior Hezbollah leader announced on Tuesday that the group is supporting efforts for a ceasefire in Lebanon. This marks the first time Hezbollah has backed a truce without demanding an end to the conflict in Gaza, as reported by CNN. A potential ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel has eased concerns over a broader war in the Middle East. However, lingering geopolitical risks could still drive safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc (CHF).

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EUR/USD Climbs Above 1.0950 Ahead of German Industrial Data Release

EUR/USD Climbs Above 1.0950 Ahead of German Industrial Data Release

EUR/USD Climbs Above 1.0950 Ahead of German Industrial Data Release

The EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement, reaching around 1.0985 on Tuesday during early European trading. The pair is benefiting from a slight weakening of the US Dollar (USD). However, the potential for further gains may be limited, as traders anticipate a smaller interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in November.

On Monday, François Villeroy de Galhau, the French Central Bank Chief, indicated that the European Central Bank (ECB) might lower interest rates next week, citing weak economic growth and the increased risk of inflation falling below its 2% target. His comments align with market expectations of a 150-basis-point ECB rate cut over the next year.

Later on Tuesday, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel is scheduled to speak, and Germany’s Industrial Production data will also be released. Any dovish signals from ECB officials or signs of weakness in Germany’s economy could weigh on the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, last Friday’s strong US jobs data heightened the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, which could support the US Dollar and limit the EUR/USD’s upside potential. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut has risen to 85%, compared to 31.1% last week.

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EUR/USD Near Mid-August Lows, Vulnerable at 1.0975

EUR/USD Hovers Near Mid-August Lows, Remains Vulnerable Around 1.0975

EUR/USD Hovers Near Mid-August Lows, Remains Vulnerable Around 1.0975

The EUR/USD pair starts the week on a subdued note, consolidating last week’s sharp losses, which brought it to its lowest level since mid-August following strong US employment data on Friday. The pair is currently trading around the 1.0975 level, looking vulnerable to further declines after pulling back from a 14-month high, just above 1.1200.

The US Dollar (USD) remains strong, hovering near a seven-week high, as traders reduce expectations of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. This shift follows unexpectedly robust US jobs data, which showed 254,000 jobs added in September, far surpassing expectations. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate dropped unexpectedly to 4.1%. These figures point to a resilient US labor market, and stronger-than-expected wage growth has reignited inflation concerns, dampening hopes for aggressive rate cuts by the Fed.

Currently, the market is pricing in a 95% probability that the Fed will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on November 7. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have further supported the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, marking its best weekly performance since September 2022. In contrast, the euro is weighed down by expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates in October due to slowing inflation and economic growth.

These expectations were reinforced by ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau, who suggested that weak economic growth could lead to inflation falling below the 2% target, warranting a rate cut in October. This outlook continues to pressure the EUR/USD pair and suggests further downside risks. Any short-term recovery attempts are likely to be viewed as selling opportunities, with a high likelihood of being short-lived.

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GBP/USD Holds Steady Above 1.3100 as Traders Await US NFP Data

GBP/USD Holds Steady Above 1.3100 as Traders Await US NFP Data

GBP/USD Holds Steady Above 1.3100 as Traders Await US NFP Data

The GBP/USD pair remains flat around 1.3125 during Friday’s Asian session, as traders stay cautious ahead of key US employment reports. Investors are awaiting the release of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings, all of which are scheduled for later in the day.

Shifting expectations for the US Federal Reserve’s next policy move could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP) in the near future. The employment data might provide insights into the size of the potential Fed rate cut in November. Analysts predict an increase of 140k in the NFP, with the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings growth holding steady at 4.2% and 3.8%, respectively. A stronger-than-expected report could weaken the case for a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in November.

In addition, escalating tensions in the Middle East may drive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. CNN reported on Thursday that an Israeli airstrike in central Beirut killed nine people, marking Israel’s first strike in the area since 2006. The Israeli military has vowed to continue targeting Hezbollah in Beirut and southern Lebanon, following additional strikes on Thursday.

On the GBP side, dovish remarks from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday could weigh on the Pound. Bailey indicated that the BoE might adopt a more aggressive stance in cutting interest rates, as inflation trends continue to improve. Markets widely expect the BoE to reduce the policy rate by 25 bps in November, with increasing speculation of another cut in December.

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EUR/USD Hits Three-Week Low at 1.1030 as USD Strengthens

EUR/USD Hits Three-Week Low Around 1.1030 Amid Strengthening USD

EUR/USD Hits Three-Week Low Around 1.1030 Amid Strengthening USD

The EUR/USD pair has seen selling pressure for the fifth consecutive day, dipping to a fresh three-week low near the 1.1030 mark during Thursday’s Asian session. This bearish momentum is driven by broad US Dollar (USD) strength, pushing the pair below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

A stronger-than-expected ADP employment report and a robust US JOLTS Job Openings survey have reinforced views of a resilient US labor market. Coupled with Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments earlier this week, expectations for a significant rate cut at the November FOMC meeting have cooled. Additionally, the growing geopolitical risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East has boosted demand for the safe-haven USD, helping it recover from its lowest level since July 2023 and reach a three-week high. This USD strength has continued to weigh heavily on the EUR/USD pair.

Further weakening the euro is the increased likelihood that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower interest rates in October. This follows Eurozone inflation data showing a decline to 1.8% in September, below the ECB’s 2% target. ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks also highlighted the rising risks to the economy and stressed the importance of cautious monetary adjustments. This adds to the bearish sentiment surrounding EUR/USD, which has seen a sharp pullback from its 19-month peak.

Technically, a sustained break below the 50-day SMA for the first time since August signals a negative outlook for the pair, potentially fueling further selling. Traders are now focused on Thursday’s key economic reports, including the final PMI releases from both the Eurozone and the US, US Weekly Jobless Claims, and the US ISM Services PMI. Speeches from influential FOMC members will also be watched closely, as they could impact USD demand and present short-term trading opportunities around the EUR/USD pair.

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EUR/USD Posts Modest Gains Above 1.1050 as Traders Await US ADP Report

EUR/USD Posts Modest Gains Above 1.1050, Traders Eye US ADP Report

EUR/USD Posts Modest Gains Above 1.1050, Traders Eye US ADP Report

The EUR/USD pair is experiencing slight gains, trading around 1.1070 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. However, any escalation in geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could weigh on risk-sensitive assets like the Euro (EUR). Investors are also focusing on the US ADP Employment Change data for September, expected later today.

Traders are still evaluating the likelihood of a significant rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in November, following remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He indicated that the Fed is in no rush to reduce its benchmark rate, stating it would happen “over time.” Currently, markets are pricing in a 37.4% probability of a 50 basis points (bps) cut in November, while a 25 bps reduction has a higher chance at 62.6%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Weak US economic data from Tuesday has put pressure on the US Dollar. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for September remained unchanged at 47.2, falling short of expectations of 47.5 and signaling ongoing contraction in the US manufacturing sector.

In the Eurozone, inflation slowed in September, dropping below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 1.8% year-over-year in September, down from 2.2% in August, according to Eurostat. This marks the lowest inflation rate since April 2021. While the decline in inflation is encouraging, the Eurozone economy still faces challenges. The ECB reduced interest rates to 3.50% in September and has hinted at further cuts in the near future.

Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, particularly the risk of broader conflict, could drive investors towards safe-haven assets like the US Dollar. Iran recently launched over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate against Iran for Tuesday’s attack.

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USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, keeping the USD/JPY pair firm around the 147.00 mark during the Asian session. A stronger US Dollar and persistent concerns over rising trade tensions are weighing heavily on the Yen, as markets brace for the impact of US tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1. 

Former US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese imports, coupled with the threat of retaliatory action, has sparked renewed fears over Japan’s economic resilience. The country’s Q1 GDP contracted, real wages in May dropped at their steepest pace in nearly two years, and political uncertainty is rising ahead of the July 20 House of Councillors election. Recent polls suggest the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may struggle to retain its majority, further dampening investor confidence. 

These developments have led traders to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. The combination of domestic headwinds and external pressure is weakening the JPY, while the US Dollar continues to gain on expectations that rising tariffs will stoke inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. 

The Fed’s June decision to hold interest rates steady, along with a strong US jobs report, has reinforced the belief that rate cuts may be delayed until at least October. The FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, will be closely watched for insights into the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets currently anticipate up to 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end. 

Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds 

Technically, USD/JPY’s break and close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) — for the first time since February — signals potential for further gains. Positive momentum on the daily chart supports a move toward the 147.60–147.65 resistance area, with the 148.00 handle, a key June high, in sight. 

On the downside, immediate support lies near 146.50, with the 100-day SMA just below 146.00 acting as a critical pivot. A decisive break below this level could shift momentum in favor of bears, opening room for deeper losses. 

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NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5700 on weaker US PMI data

During the early Asian session on Thursday, the NZD/USD pair was trading slightly higher at 0.5690. The Greenback falls against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as US economic data disappoints. Investors will keenly monitor developments in the rekindled trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. 

The weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) could weigh on the Greenback and generate a tailwind for the pair. The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3.

On the other hand, New Zealand’s fourth-quarter employment report will put the RBNZ on pace to decrease the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% this month. Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday that the country’s unemployment rate increased to 5.1% in Q4, up from 4.8% the previous quarter. This result was a four-year high and exceeded the 25-year average of 4.8%. Rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may decrease interest rates may further impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

“In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% at the February 19 meeting and the policy rate to through around 3.00% over the next 12 months. Bottom line: NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD,” noted Société Générale’s FX analysts. 

On Tuesday, the finance ministry in China unveiled a package of tariffs on various US products such as crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos in a sharp response to an announcement made by US President Donald Trump imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Further, China served notice to several companies including Google for potential sanctions in response to Trump’s tariffs. Any sign of uncertainty or a rising trade war tension may see the China-proxy Kiwi being dragged lower, as China remains one of the major trading partners to New Zealand.

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JPY Recovers Losses vs. USD, Bullish Outlook Intact

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses Against USD; Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

The Japanese yen (JPY) cut some of its intraday losses against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, bringing the USD/JPY pair back below the mid-155.00s during the early European session. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions showed conversations about the possibility of further hikes in interest rates. Furthermore, Tokyo’s core inflation increased at the quickest annual rate in nearly a year, raising expectations of further policy tightening by the BoJ, which supports the JPY.

Beyond monetary policy, narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economies, including the US, alongside a broader risk-off sentiment, provide additional support to the safe-haven JPY. However, concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s newly announced trade tariffs limit the yen’s upside. Meanwhile, the USD remains broadly strong, allowing the USD/JPY pair to maintain its positive momentum for a second consecutive day, ahead of the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI report.

Yen Gains Traction Amid BoJ Rate Hike Bets and Trade War Fears

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, effective Tuesday.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, and China’s foreign ministry all replied quickly, indicating probable retaliation. The US Dollar continues to climb, approaching a two-year high last hit in January, supporting the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

The Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions, released on Monday, showed that policymakers are thinking about additional rate hikes, though this has failed to appreciably lift the JPY.

Board members of the Bank of Japan stressed the need of continuing to raise interest rates if economic conditions and inflation remain stable.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the government is closely monitoring the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the yen amid concerns over potential economic fallout.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reiterated Japan’s commitment to achieving the BoJ’s 2% inflation target while implementing measures to offset rising living costs.

The US-Japan yield spread remains near a multi-week low, which, coupled with risk aversion, could help stabilize the yen in the near term.

Investors now turn their focus to key US economic data, starting with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Near 156.25; Bears in Control Below This Level

From a technical standpoint, last week’s strong rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally and the subsequent upside move favor bullish traders. However, additional gains beyond 156.00 may encounter resistance near last week’s swing high at 156.25. A sustained break above this level could spark a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards:

  • 156.70-156.75 resistance
  • 157.00 psychological mark
  • 157.60 horizontal barrier
  • Potential extension towards 158.00, with an ultimate target at the 158.85-158.90 multi-month high from January 10

Conversely, on the downside:-

  • 155.00 serves as immediate support
  • Below this, watch for key levels at 154.55-154.50 and 154.00
  • A break below the 153.70 January low could accelerate the decline towards 153.30 and eventually 153.00

While the JPY is exhibiting some resilience, the overall trend remains unpredictable, with market participants intently watching economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

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Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rise, Fed Decision Looms

Australian Dollar Slides Amid Rising Odds of RBA Rate Cuts, Fed Decision in Focus

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak for a third consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD), weighed down by softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, matching the previous quarter but missing the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI eased to 2.4% from 2.8% in Q3, below the market forecast of 2.5%. Despite December’s monthly CPI ticking up to 2.5% YoY, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2%-3% target range. Meanwhile, the RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI slowed to 3.2% YoY, its weakest pace in three years, slightly under the anticipated 3.3%.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed confidence that “the worst of the inflation challenge is behind us” and that a “soft landing” is increasingly likely. The cooling inflation strengthens the case for an RBA rate cut in February. The central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing the need for inflation to “sustainably” return to target before considering a rate reduction.

AUD Pressured by Risk Aversion, Trump’s Tariff Threats

The AUD faces additional headwinds from risk-off sentiment following tariff threats by former US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of key commodities, including computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to boost US manufacturing.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm around 108.00 as traders turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, indicate near-certainty that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for guidance on future policy shifts.

Concerns over the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies add another layer of uncertainty. US Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino noted, “A number of White House proposals appear inflationary, which could keep the Fed in check.” Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed universal tariffs on US imports starting at 2.5%, with Trump reportedly favoring even higher rates.

China’s Economic Slowdown Adds Pressure on AUD

The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to China’s economic struggles. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1, missing expectations, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.2 from 52.2. As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s weak data weighs heavily on the AUD.

Despite China’s recent stimulus measures, including a $7.25 billion investment in index products and long-term stock investments, concerns persist. Industrial profits fell 3.3% YoY in 2024, marking a third consecutive year of contraction, driven by weak demand, deflationary pressures, and a prolonged property sector slump.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Turns Bearish Below 0.6250

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6230 on Wednesday after breaking below the ascending channel on the daily chart, signaling a shift toward a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, reinforcing downside momentum.

A decisive break below key support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel strengthens the bearish outlook, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward 0.6131—its lowest level since April 2020. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6256. A rebound above this level could reintroduce a bullish bias, with the next upside target near 0.6360.

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US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

The US dollar strengthened significantly against all major currencies after President Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary reignited concerns about potential tariffs, raising fears that trade policies may return to the forefront. Risk-sensitive currencies, particularly those tied to China, saw sharp declines, while the euro weakened amid speculation that the European Union could soon face tariff pressures. Simultaneously, the Japanese yen took a hit as traders hedged against potential US inflation spikes and rising Treasury yields.

This market turbulence followed a Financial Times report indicating that Scott Bessent, the newly appointed Treasury Department official, supports a phased approach to implementing universal tariffs on US imports. The initial proposal suggests starting with a 2.5% tariff rate. However, President Trump hinted at a much broader scope, potentially targeting a range of imports from steel to semiconductor chips and suggesting higher tariff rates over time.

The administration’s “moderate” proposal involves a gradual increase in tariffs, reaching 20% over eight months in increments of 2.5% per month. This timeline has triggered speculation about more extreme scenarios and raised questions about the global trade concessions needed to halt these measures. Bessent’s approach, which allows businesses time to adjust, could also spark a rush of imports and exports to avoid higher future costs.

Amid these developments, financial markets are grappling with the potential outcomes. Traders are assessing whether the proposed tariff measures are fully priced in and evaluating the likelihood of de-escalation through negotiation.

On the positive side, any concessions or agreements that delay or reduce tariffs could stabilize markets. However, the risks of escalating tariffs, particularly if negotiations fail, remain a significant concern. Higher tariffs could disrupt global trade and have far-reaching implications for currency valuations.

While we initially favored long positions on the dollar, the unfolding tariff narrative has introduced significant uncertainty. Staying prepared for sudden shifts in policy and market dynamics is now crucial as the situation continues to evolve.

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Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) ended its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the AUD/USD pair trading flat following the release of mixed Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. As a close trade partner, Australia’s economy is heavily influenced by China’s economic performance.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, down from 50.1 in December, missing market expectations. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 from the previous month’s 52.2. These weaker-than-expected figures suggest a slowdown in China’s economic recovery, weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.

Despite fresh stimulus measures from China aimed at revitalizing its equity markets, the AUD struggled to gain momentum. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a second round of long-term stock investment pilot programs valued at 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). However, these measures have done little to alleviate investor concerns about China’s economic challenges.

Risk Aversion Rises Amid Trump’s Trade Tariff Push

Broader market sentiment took a hit as reports emerged that US President Donald Trump’s advisers are pushing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February 1, bypassing negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s willingness to move swiftly on tariffs follows similar actions taken against Colombia, raising fears of escalating trade tensions and dampening demand for riskier assets like the Australian Dollar.

Adding to the negative outlook, China’s Industrial Profits declined by 3.3% year-over-year in 2024 to CNY 7,431.05 billion, marking the third consecutive year of contraction. This downturn highlights ongoing economic headwinds, including weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property sector.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Bullish Setup

The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6290 on Monday, showing signs of upward momentum within an ascending channel on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 50, reflecting mild optimism in the market.

On the upside, the pair could retest the psychological resistance level at 0.6300, with the next target near the channel’s upper boundary around 0.6350.

Support levels are found at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6265, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6254. A stronger support lies near the channel’s lower boundary around 0.6240, which could act as a safety net in case of a downside correction.

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NZD/USD Struggles

NZD/USD Struggles Below 0.5700 Amid Trump’s Tariff Plans and Dovish RBNZ Expectations

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading near 0.5675 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces headwinds due to uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China and the dovish outlook of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicated a continued decline in underlying inflation, strengthening expectations of additional rate cuts by the RBNZ. Swap markets now estimate a nearly 90% chance of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut on February 19, building on the two cuts already implemented in this cycle. The RBNZ is projected to deliver a total of 100 bps in rate cuts through the remainder of 2025.

Meanwhile, the downside for the pair could be capped by recent comments from Trump. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump called for immediate interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” Trump said.

Investors are now closely watching for further details on Trump’s tariff policies, alongside key US economic data releases. The flash US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for January will be a key focus later on Friday, along with the release of US Existing Home Sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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