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USD/CAD Holds Near One-Week Low

USD/CAD Dips Below 1.3650 Ahead of US/Canada PMI Data

USD/CAD Dips Below 1.3650 Ahead of US/Canada PMI Data

The USD/CAD currency pair displayed a slight downward trend in early Monday trading in the European session, hovering around 1.3625. This movement was primarily driven by a weakening US Dollar following the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming release of the Canadian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for May, both set to be disclosed later in the day.

In the US, inflation rates stabilized in April, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates later this year, which could further impact the dollar’s strength. The Commerce Department reported that the PCE rose by 0.3% month-over-month in April, consistent with March’s figures. The Core PCE, which excludes the more volatile prices of food and energy, saw a slight increase of 0.2% month-over-month in April, down from 0.3% in March. Year-over-year, the core PCE price index held steady at a 2.8% increase for the third consecutive month. Following the inflation report, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have increased, now standing at nearly 53%, up from 49%.

On the Canadian side, the economy showed signs of weakness with its first-quarter GDP growth figures. The GDP expanded by an annualized rate of 1.7%, which not only fell short of the anticipated 2.2% growth but also did not meet the central bank’s projection of 2.8%. This disappointing data prompted the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut interest rates last Wednesday. Additionally, the Canadian Dollar is under pressure due to falling crude oil prices, a critical factor given Canada’s status as the largest oil exporter to the United States.

These economic indicators from both nations are crucial as they provide insights into the possible future directions of their respective central banks regarding interest rates. As investors and traders await the manufacturing PMI readings from Canada and the US, these figures will likely influence the currency pair further, shaping market dynamics for the near term.

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USD/CAD Nears 1.3700 Before US PCE, Canada GDP Data

USD/CAD Nears 1.3700 Before US PCE, Canada GDP Data

The USD/CAD pair is seeing a rebound, trading near 1.3690 during Friday’s Asian session, after halting its recent downtrend. This comes as the US Dollar strengthens in anticipation of the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, set to be announced later today.

In the US, the GDP growth for the first quarter was revised down to 1.3% from an initial estimate of 1.6%, leading investors to speculate on the possibility of a more dovish approach by the Federal Reserve. This revision has introduced some uncertainty regarding potential rate cuts in September. Furthermore, the US reported an increase in Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 2, with figures rising to 219,000 from 216,000 the previous week, surpassing the anticipated 218,000.

The lower yields on US Treasury bonds could potentially restrain the US Dollar’s gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is currently trading higher at around 104.80. Specific yield rates show the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields at 4.92% and 4.54%, respectively.

Conversely, in Canada, diminishing prospects of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in June are evident, influenced by fresh data highlighting sustained price pressures. April saw a significant jump in producer prices by 1.5%, following a 0.9% increase in March, almost double the forecasted 0.8%. The likelihood of a 25-basis point cut at the BoC’s next meeting has decreased to 34% from 46% just a week earlier.

On the data front, Statistics Canada is scheduled to release its GDP figures for the first quarter. Analysts expect an annualized growth rate of 2.2%, marking an improvement from the 1.0% expansion seen in the previous quarter.

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Oil Price Surge May Limit Gains

USD/CAD Rises to 1.3650 Amid Decline in Oil Prices

USD/CAD Rises to 1.3650 Amid Decline in Oil Prices

The USD/CAD pair has edged higher for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.3650 during Asian hours on Wednesday. This upward movement is driven primarily by a growing sense of risk aversion among investors, which is bolstering demand for the US Dollar (USD) and, in turn, supporting the USD/CAD pair.

On Tuesday, risk sentiment soured following comments from Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Kashkari indicated that a rate hike might still be on the table, suggesting uncertainty about the disinflationary process and predicting only two rate cuts. This hawkish stance has increased speculation about potential future rate hikes, contributing to the appreciation of US Treasury yields and strengthening the Greenback.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, was trading higher around 104.70. Concurrently, the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds stood at 4.96% and 4.54%, respectively, further supporting the USD. Additionally, recent economic data showed that the US Housing Price Index (MoM) for March underperformed, coming in at 0.1% compared to 1.2% in February and below the expected 0.5%. Market participants are now looking forward to remarks from New York Fed President John Williams and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book, which will provide insights into the current US economic situation based on a variety of sources.

On the Canadian front, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) faced pressure due to a downward correction in crude oil prices. As Canada is a major oil exporter to the United States, fluctuations in oil prices significantly impact the commodity-linked CAD. Despite this, Canada’s Industrial Product Price Index showed a 1.5% month-over-month increase in April, surpassing market forecasts of 0.6% and reaching a new eight-month high. This follows an upwardly revised 0.9% increase in March. Additionally, the Raw Materials Price Index rose by 5.5% month-over-month in April, up from a previous rise of 4.3% and above the expected increase of 3.2%.

In summary, the USD/CAD pair’s recent gains are underpinned by a combination of risk aversion favoring the US Dollar, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and robust US Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar’s performance is hindered by lower oil prices, despite stronger-than-expected domestic industrial and raw materials price data. Market participants will closely monitor upcoming economic reports and speeches for further cues on the pair’s direction.

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USD/CHF Gains Momentum Above 0.8550 Ahead of FOMC Minutes

USD/CHF Remains Strong Above 0.9150 Amid Middle East Tensions

USD/CHF Remains Strong Above 0.9150 Amid Middle East Tensions

During the early European trading hours on Monday, the USD/CHF pair demonstrated strength, trading near the 0.9150 mark. This positive momentum comes as investors anticipate the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential interest rate cuts starting from their September meeting. The prevailing expectation of easing monetary policy in the US has lent some support to the US Dollar (USD), contributing to the uplift of the pair. Attention is now turning towards a forthcoming speech by Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan on Tuesday, which is eagerly awaited for new directives. This is particularly significant as it precedes the release of Switzerland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter.

Fed officials have maintained a hawkish stance, suggesting that borrowing costs might stay elevated for a longer period than initially expected. This position is reinforced by consecutive inflation readings that continue to surpass the Fed’s 2% target, underlining persistent inflationary pressures.

Recent robust economic indicators from the US have also fueled speculation that the Fed might postpone its anticipated easing cycle. After the release of stronger-than-expected economic data last Friday, the financial markets adjusted their expectations, with the likelihood of a September rate cut by the Fed falling to 53% from the previous 64%, as per the CME FedWatch tool. Notably, the US Durable Goods Orders for April saw a rise of 0.7% month-over-month, surpassing the market’s forecast of a 0.8% decline, as reported by the US Census Bureau. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May recorded a slight increase to 69.1 from 67.4 in April, beating the anticipated 67.5, suggesting a more resilient consumer outlook than expected.

On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East have escalated following recent developments reported by CNN. At least 35 Palestinians were killed and dozens injured due to Israeli air strikes on a displacement camp in Rafah on Sunday, as stated by the Ministry of Health in Gaza. These unfolding events are closely monitored by market participants, as any increase in regional tensions could trigger safe-haven flows. Such flows typically benefit the Swiss Franc (CHF), which is considered a safe-haven currency, potentially exerting downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair.

Investors and traders alike will keep a keen eye on both economic and geopolitical developments, as these factors are likely to play crucial roles in influencing the currency pair’s movements in the near term.

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USD/CAD Dips Below 1.3650 Ahead of FOMC Minutes

USD/CAD Dips Below 1.3650 Ahead of FOMC Minutes

USD/CAD Dips Below 1.3650 Ahead of FOMC Minutes

The USD/CAD currency pair declined to 1.3640 as the U.S. Dollar experienced a period of consolidation during the early European session on Wednesday. Despite softer Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures, which might suggest an upcoming interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the pair continued its downward trajectory. Market participants are now looking forward to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes and a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Austan Goolsbee later today, which could provide further insights into future monetary policies.

On Tuesday, Statistics Canada released data showing a deceleration in inflation for April, with the annual CPI growth rate cooling to 2.7%, down from 2.9% in March, aligning with market predictions. The month-over-month increase in CPI also moderated, rising by 0.5% in April compared to 0.6% in the prior month. Notably, the BoC’s core CPI, which excludes the volatile components of the full index, increased by only 1.6% year-over-year in April, a reduction from the 2% rise observed in March.

This slowdown in inflation has fueled speculation among traders that the BoC could initiate a rate cut as early as its next meeting in June. The probability of a rate cut on June 5 surged to nearly 55%, up significantly from 39% before the inflation data was released. This shift in expectations is largely due to the easing inflation, suggesting less pressure on the BoC to maintain higher interest rates.

The trajectory of interest rate adjustments by the BoC, coupled with anticipated actions from the U.S. Federal Reserve, could place downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and potentially support the USD/CAD pair moving forward. Fed officials have expressed a cautious approach to adjusting policy rates, indicating a preference to wait for more conclusive data that confirms a sustained movement towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the need for prudence in making the first-rate move to avoid triggering instability in inflation rates. Similarly, Fed Governor Christopher Waller pointed out the necessity of observing several more months of favorable inflation data before considering a reduction in borrowing costs.

As the market awaits the FOMC Minutes and Fed speeches, the future movements of USD/CAD will likely hinge on indications of both central banks’ strategies concerning interest rate paths, especially in light of the current economic data. The forthcoming Fed communications could either validate the market’s current expectations or introduce new dynamics influencing the currency pair.

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GBP/USD Nears 1.2700 on 2024 Fed Rate Cut Hopes

GBP/USD Nears 1.2700 on 2024 Fed Rate Cut Hopes

GBP/USD Nears 1.2700 on 2024 Fed Rate Cut Hopes

The GBP/USD pair extended its gains for the second consecutive session, trading around 1.2710 during Asian hours on Monday. This upward movement was largely supported by a weaker US Dollar (USD). April data indicated that US consumer inflation had slowed to 0.3%, which has raised expectations for potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in 2024. Despite this, the Fed remains cautious about inflation and the prospect of reducing rates next year.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis-point rate cut in September has slightly increased to 49.0%, up from 48.6% a week ago. This potential easing of monetary policy by the central bank could weaken the US Dollar and provide support to the GBP/USD pair.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Michelle Bowman noted that progress on inflation might not be as steady as hoped. Bowman highlighted that the decline in inflation seen in the latter half of last year was temporary and that there has been no further significant progress on inflation this year. Additionally, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin mentioned that while inflation is easing, it will “take more time” to reach the Fed’s 2% target.

In the United Kingdom (UK), investors are anticipating a potential 60 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in 2024, with the first cut expected in August. The upcoming UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is forecasted to show an annual rise of 2.7%, according to FactSet estimates. This data is expected to have a significant impact on the Pound Sterling (GBP).BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, speaking after the release of March’s CPI data, remarked, “Inflation in the UK will fall near its 2% target next month,” noting that inflation has been declining roughly in line with the BoE’s February forecast.

Overall, the GBP/USD pair’s recent gains are driven by a combination of weaker USD and market expectations for rate cuts from both the Fed and BoE in the near future. However, the future movements of this currency pair will heavily depend on upcoming economic data releases and central bank policy decisions.

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USD/JPY Nears 156.00 Amid Unchanged BoJ Bond Purchases

USD/JPY Nears 156.00 Amid Unchanged BoJ Bond Purchases

USD/JPY Nears 156.00 Amid Unchanged BoJ Bond Purchases

During the Asian trading session on Friday, the USD/JPY pair climbed to a high of 155.90 as the Japanese Yen faced increased downward pressure. This market movement coincided with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decision to maintain its current level of bond purchases, diverging from market expectations that had anticipated a possible reduction in debt buying earlier in the week.

Market participants are now closely watching the BoJ’s next steps, with speculation mounting that the central bank may opt to taper its bond-buying program at the upcoming June policy meeting. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda further solidified this perspective by clarifying in recent statements that the central bank has no immediate plans to offload its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Amidst these developments, Toshitaka Sekine, a former chief economist at the BoJ, shared insights in a Bloomberg interview that suggest the potential for more aggressive monetary policy adjustments. According to Sekine, the BoJ might increase its benchmark interest rate as many as three times before the year’s end. He pointed out that the next rate hike could come as soon as June, noting that there is considerable scope to modify the current “excessively” accommodative policy settings.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar has shown resilience as reflected in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of six major currencies. The index was observed trading around 104.60, having recovered from a multi-week trough of 104.08 on Thursday. This rebound comes amidst a backdrop of ongoing caution from the Federal Reserve regarding inflation dynamics and the potential timing of future rate cuts, possibly extending into 2024.

Key comments from Federal Reserve officials underscore the prevailing economic sentiment. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the necessity of patience with interest rates during a speech in Jacksonville, highlighting persistent pricing pressures within the U.S. economy. Similarly, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester remarked that it might take longer than previously expected to determine a clear inflation trajectory with confidence. These statements suggest a consensus among some Fed policymakers that the current restrictive monetary stance should be sustained longer to ensure inflation targets are met securely.

These intertwined dynamics between U.S. monetary policy and developments within the Bank of Japan are likely to keep investors on edge as they navigate through an environment filled with policy uncertainties and their implications for global currency markets.

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Asian Stocks Inch Up Amid Geopolitical Risk, Anticipating Chinese GDP

Asian Stocks Inch Up Amid Geopolitical Risk, Anticipating Chinese GDP

Asian markets took a positive turn on Tuesday, following the upward momentum in US equities. This recovery comes after a period of losses influenced by the unfolding events in the Middle East. However, the overall market sentiment remains delicate, primarily due to concerns about the potential escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict into a more extensive proxy war with Iran. Additionally, investors are cautiously eyeing significant Chinese economic data scheduled for release this week.

The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a significant factor affecting the risk landscape. Israeli forces have continued their airstrikes on Gaza as efforts to secure a ceasefire have faced obstacles. Israel’s Defense Forces chief indicated the possibility of an eventual ground invasion into the Gaza Strip to combat the Hamas group, a move that could further escalate tensions. Iran has issued warnings in response to a ground invasion, adding to the geopolitical complexities. Moreover, there is a separate potential conflict on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, involving exchanges of artillery fire with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group. These factors collectively cast a shadow of uncertainty over the markets.

Traders may also be adopting a cautious stance, awaiting the release of China’s third-quarter GDP data, a pivotal event given China’s status as Asia’s largest economy. Expectations point toward ongoing economic weakness, raising concerns about China’s economic conditions. Disappointing Chinese data has the potential to impact global risk sentiment and exert downward pressure on Asian stocks. Additionally, market participants are closely monitoring the scheduled speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the week.

The influence of elevated US Treasury bond yields cannot be overlooked. Concerns persist about the economic headwinds stemming from rising borrowing costs, which could act as a restraint on equity market gains, especially as companies prepare to report their quarterly earnings. 

Looking ahead, the market’s sentiment will likely be shaped by a combination of factors, including upcoming economic data releases in the United States, developments in geopolitics, and movements in US bond yields. Retail sales and industrial production figures, set for release during the early North American session, will offer further insights and influence traders’ decisions as they assess short-term opportunities.

 

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Treasuries and Stocks Rally on Fed Comments

Treasuries and Stocks Rally on Fed Comments

Financial markets witnessed a surge as Treasuries and Asian shares soared, driven by Federal Reserve comments that raised speculation about the central bank’s future actions.

The two-year Treasury, sensitive to policy changes, experienced its most significant drop since August’s end. Simultaneously, the benchmark 10-year Treasury had its best performance since March. These moves led traders to bet on the conclusion of the U.S. tightening cycle, amplified by the Israel-Hamas conflict, which spurred demand for safe-haven assets.

As a result, the MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index is set for its most significant gain in three months, with European and U.S. stock futures showing a modest increase. However, the potential impact of the Middle East conflict remains uncertain.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggested a cautious approach, given the recent rise in Treasury yields. Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, also hinted that surging long-term rates might reduce the need for further tightening.

Despite Middle East tensions, markets have remained relatively calm, offering some reassurance to investors, according to Hideyuki Ishiguro, a senior strategist at Nomura Asset Management.

Traders initially bet on another Fed rate hike this year after a surprising surge in U.S. employment in September. However, this changed as central bank officials downplayed the possibility of another 2023 rate increase.

The dollar remained steady as odds for another Fed tightening eased. It traded in a narrow range against its Group-of-10 peers.

However, Middle East tensions could escalate further, with reports of a top U.S. general warning Iran to stay out of the Israel-Hamas conflict.

In Asia, Chinese developer Country Garden Holdings Co. warned of its first-ever default, potentially leading to one of the nation’s largest restructurings.

Oil prices dipped slightly after Monday’s increase following the Hamas attack, while gold remained relatively stable.

Geopolitical concerns, coupled with moderating global economic growth, present challenges for markets, according to Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management. She said they favor fixed income over equities, citing a better risk-reward profile for fixed income.

Potential risks to U.S. stocks may arise from fiscal policy constraints, especially as the Fed combats high inflation, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson. He believes that the absence of a long-term structure supporting fiscal discipline could impact financial markets.

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Asia Stocks Fall, Aussie Remains Down

Asia Stocks Fall, Aussie Remains Down

Hong Kong’s stock market faced a significant setback, plunging by as much as 3.4% upon reopening after a holiday, making it an underperformer compared to other regional indices. This decline contributed to the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index hitting its lowest point since December of the previous year. Simultaneously, China was observing a weeklong holiday.

The Australian dollar managed to stabilize after an earlier loss, while the country’s government bonds remained steady, despite the central bank’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting on Tuesday. The central bank issued a warning about the potential necessity for further tightening of monetary policy.

Asian bond markets experienced a downturn, with Australia’s 10-year bond yield hovering around its highest level since 2011. This mirrored the decline seen in US Treasuries following a series of hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve. These statements overshadowed earlier optimism regarding a deal to avert a US government shutdown. Treasury yields across all maturities increased by approximately 10 basis points on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year note yield reaching its highest level since 2007. However, Treasuries in Asia managed to stabilize on Tuesday.

Market strategist Charu Chanana from Saxo Capital Markets highlighted, “Markets remain risk-averse as the prospect of higher rates for a longer period continues to resonate due to marginally hawkish US data and central bank speakers.”

As the threat of a US government shutdown subsided, global bond selloffs accelerated, with traders increasing their bets on a potential rate hike from the Federal Reserve in November.

In contrast to the overall market trend, China Evergrande Group experienced a surge of up to 42% as it resumed trading following a halt last week.

In the commodities market, gold held its ground after experiencing a decline to its lowest point since March. Oil prices, on the other hand, saw a dip, with West Texas Intermediate falling below $90 a barrel. A Citigroup Inc. analyst suggested that reduced demand from China could limit the price gains resulting from OPEC+ supply cuts.

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S&P 500 Bounces to $4,300, Yet September Ends in Losses

S&P 500 Bounces to $4,300, Yet September Ends in Losses

The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index managed to regain some ground on Thursday, posting a respectable gain of nearly 0.60% and closing just below the critical $4,300.00 level. This positive momentum was mirrored by other major U.S. indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbing 116 points to settle at $33,666.34, an increase of 0.35%, and the Nasdaq Composite outperforming, surging over 0.80% to end the day at $13,201.28.

The rebound in U.S. equities came as a welcome respite for investors who had been enduring a challenging period in September. The S&P 500, in particular, had experienced a sharp decline in recent weeks, with its value plummeting over 5.0% from its September peak, which had approached the lofty heights of $4,540.00. September, it seems, is poised to become the year’s worst-performing month for equities, with most major indexes retreating from the summertime highs.

The sharp drop in equity prices earlier in the month was attributed to a multitude of factors, which sent jitters throughout the financial markets. Chief among these concerns were uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve’s stance on reducing its bond-buying program and the impending specter of rising interest rates. Additionally, worries regarding the impact of the Delta variant of COVID-19 on the global economic recovery added to the prevailing unease.

Thursday’s rebound in the stock market was accompanied by a relaxation of selling pressure and a respite for U.S. Treasury yields. This newfound stability allowed equities to regain some lost ground as investors looked forward to Friday’s release of the crucial U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data.

One of the key events on the horizon is the release of the U.S. PCE inflation measure for the month of August, which is expected to hold steady at 0.2%. Investors are closely monitoring inflation data as it plays a pivotal role in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions and can have a significant impact on market sentiment.

In addition to inflation concerns, there has been growing apprehension among investors regarding the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown driven by partisan politics. These fears, coupled with worries about a potential economic recession, have weighed heavily on equity markets.

As the month of September draws to a close, investors are bracing for continued volatility and uncertainty. The path forward for U.S. equities remains uncertain, with market participants closely monitoring economic data releases, central bank statements, and geopolitical developments that could shape the trajectory of financial markets in the coming months.

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US Yields Surge, Asia Stocks Fall Amid Fed’s Hawkish Stance

US Yields Surge, Asia Stocks Fall Amid Fed’s Hawkish Stance

US Treasury yields hit a fresh 16-year high, reaching 4.552%, marking levels not seen since October 2007. This surge was driven by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks signaling that interest rates would remain elevated for an extended period. Consequently, the US dollar held near a 10-month high, with the US dollar index reaching 106.10, its highest since November 30, before settling at 106.00.

In response to the soaring yields and a strong dollar, Asia-Pacific stock markets faced declines. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped by 0.33%. Tokyo’s Nikkei fell by 0.7%, South Korea’s Kospi slid 1%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.3%. Mainland Chinese blue chips opened flat.

US stock futures pointed to a 0.3% decline, following a 0.4% rise in the S&P 500 overnight. Traders now consider the likelihood of another quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike by January to be a toss-up, and they have postponed expectations for rate cuts until the summer.

Westpac strategists anticipate further increases in yields in the near term, which would also strengthen the dollar. They foresee 10-year yields potentially peaking around 4.75% in the coming weeks. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that the risk of persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target outweighed concerns about the Fed’s tightening policy hindering the economy.

The US economy’s relative outperformance, compared to the stagnation in the eurozone and Britain, has supported the dollar against those currencies. The euro edged down to US$1.05855, nearing its overnight low of US$1.0575, last seen in mid-March. Sterling also slipped to US$1.22065, approaching Monday’s six-month low of US$1.21945. The dollar remained near an 11-month peak of 148.97 yen, raising the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening in the currency markets.

Gold remained relatively stable at around US$1,915, after falling from above US$1,947 over the past week. Crude oil continued to weaken due to concerns that central banks would keep interest rates elevated for an extended period, potentially impacting fuel demand. Brent crude futures were down 11 cents at US$93.18 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded 1 cent lower at US$89.67.

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US Dollar Stabilizes After Recent Losses

Stocks Plummet, US Yields Surge, Dollar Gains Momentum as Federal Reserve Adopts Hawkish Stance

Stocks Plummet, US Yields Surge, Dollar Gains Momentum as Federal Reserve Adopts Hawkish Stance

Asia-Pacific shares followed the downward trend set by Wall Street on Thursday, as investors interpreted the latest policy statements from the US Federal Reserve as a signal of higher and longer interest rates. 

The broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, MSCI’s (.MIAPJ0000PUS), was down 0.4% in early afternoon Hong Kong time. Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) slid 0.6%, China’s blue-chip (.CSI300) dipped 0.6%, and Hong Kong’s benchmark shed 1.3%.

The yield on two-year US Treasury notes rose to a 17-year high of 5.1970% on Thursday morning and hovered around 5.18% by early afternoon. 

Similarly, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reached its highest level in a decade, in line with the US 10-year Treasury yields, which hit a 16-year peak at 4.4310%.

“We anticipate further increases in bond yields in the near future due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position,” said Tai Hui, APAC chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. He added that while high interest rates can cool the economy, they remain positive on long-term government bonds, investment grade corporate debt, as well as growth and tech stocks.

Ben Luk, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets, noted that the overall tone of the Fed’s latest meeting was not excessively hawkish but there were two surprises. The forecasts for 2024 were slightly higher than expected, and Fed statements indicated that macroeconomic growth would hold up despite higher rates. 

The US central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday and projected an increase by the end of the year, stating that monetary policy will likely be much tighter through 2024 than previously estimated. The median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of the year is now 5.1%, compared to the 4.6% estimated in June. 

The upward revisions to rate forecasts prompted a rebound in the US dollar, pushed US Treasury yields to multi-year highs, flattened the yield curve, and caused stocks to tumble.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of rivals, reached its highest level since March 9 at 105.59 on Thursday, bringing the yen close to its weakest point since November. The pound fell to fresh multi-month lows following an inflation report on Wednesday, raising questions about whether the Bank of England will also hold rates.

Major stock futures in Asia experienced fluctuations in early afternoon trading. US stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, were down 0.3%. Similarly, the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures, German DAX futures, and FTSE futures all declined by approximately 1%.

Investors are now closely watching monetary policy decisions from Indonesia, the Philippines, and Taiwan on Thursday, while the Bank of England’s decision will also provide guidance to Asian markets.

Oil prices fell in Asian trade following the largest decline in a month in the previous session. US crude dropped 0.72% to $89.01 a barrel, and Brent crude fell to $92.87 per barrel. 

Gold remained slightly lower, with spot gold trading at $1,927.96 an ounce.

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Asian Stocks Dip Amid Cautious Mood, Focus on Fed Rate Decision

Asian Stocks Dip Amid Cautious Mood, Focus on Fed Rate Decision

Asian stock markets faced a mild setback on Tuesday, marked by cautious sentiment among investors as they awaited the forthcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. This heightened sense of caution stems from growing concerns that the Federal Reserve’s commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period could potentially exert a negative impact on consumers in the United States.

As of the most recent market data, the Shanghai Composite Index in China managed a slight uptick of 0.02%, reaching a level of 3,126 points. Meanwhile, the Shenzhen Component Index experienced a 0.73% decline, settling at 10,126 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index recorded a meager 0.02% gain, bringing it to 17,933 points. Conversely, South Korea’s Kospi Index faced a 0.41% decline, and Japan’s Nikkei Index witnessed a more pronounced drop of 0.99%.

Despite some positive developments within China’s real estate sector, these developments failed to generate significant upward momentum in market sentiment on Tuesday. Notably, Country Garden secured bondholder approval for the last of eight local notes, for which it had sought an extension of repayment deadlines. Similarly, Sunac gained approval from its creditors for its debt restructuring plan.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is poised to announce its interest rate policy later in the week, specifically on Friday. Market observers are closely monitoring signals from the BoJ, which appear to suggest a potential exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy sooner than initially anticipated. Recent remarks by Governor Kazuo Ueda have fueled speculation and contributed to a notable surge in interest rates.

Looking ahead, market participants are eagerly anticipating the Federal Reserve’s impending interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. Following this decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference, during which he may offer insights into the central bank’s ‘dot plot’ projections and inflation expectations. As the week progresses, the financial community’s focus will shift toward the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting, also slated for Friday.

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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Japanese Yen Weakens Against USD

Japanese Yen Weakens Against USD as BoJ-Fed Policies Diverge

Japanese Yen Weakens Against USD as BoJ-Fed Policies Diverge

During the Asian trading session on Friday, the Japanese Yen (JPY) faced increased selling pressure, moving away from its two-week high achieved following hawkish comments by Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Hajime Takata. These comments had momentarily fueled expectations of a more aggressive monetary stance from the BoJ. However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda clarified that the bank’s 2% inflation target is not yet within reach. This statement, coupled with Japan’s unexpected slip into recession, has dampened speculation about a potential rate hike, which would have been the first since 2007.

Additionally, the current surge in global equity markets, characterized by a risk-on sentiment, is diminishing the appeal of the JPY as a safe-haven asset. This shift in market dynamics is contributing to the Yen’s retreat. In contrast, the US economy is showing signs of easing inflationary pressures. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January indicated that the annual inflation increase was the smallest in almost three years. This development supports the belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might begin reducing interest rates as soon as their June policy meeting. However, this prospect has not significantly bolstered the US Dollar (USD), which struggled to capitalize on its recent recovery from weekly lows.

The USD/JPY pair remains below the mid-150.00s, reflecting a cautious market stance amidst ongoing discussions. Market participants are closely watching for any signs of intervention by Japanese authorities to curb further weakening of the Yen. Such interventions, if undertaken, would aim to stabilize the currency and prevent excessive volatility in the forex markets.

The situation remains fluid, with various factors at play. On the one hand, there are expectations of continued accommodative policies from the BoJ, and on the other, there are anticipations of a policy shift by the Fed. These contrasting central bank policies and global market sentiments are key drivers in the currency markets, particularly affecting the dynamics between the JPY and USD. Investors and traders are keenly observing these developments to gauge the future trajectory of the USD/JPY pair amidst these complex economic and monetary environments.

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Oil Price Surge May Limit Gains

USD/CAD Nears Two-Week High, Oil Price Surge May Limit Gains Before US Data

USD/CAD Nears Two-Week High, Oil Price Surge May Limit Gains Before US Data

The USD/CAD currency pair has been on a rising trend for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a near two-week peak around the 1.3545 mark during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. This upward movement is largely driven by an increased demand for the US Dollar (USD). However, the surge in Crude Oil prices might limit any further gains for the pair.

Tuesday’s US Durable Goods Orders data, which came in below expectations, initially caused a stir in the market but the impact was short-lived. The market is gradually coming to terms with the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. This sentiment has bolstered the USD Index (DXY), which compares the USD against a group of other currencies. The DXY’s recovery from its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is providing additional support to the USD/CAD pair.

However, several factors could dampen the USD’s strength. The potential for a US government shutdown, a recent decrease in US Treasury bond yields, and a rally in global equity markets that indicate a risk-on mood, may all pose challenges to the USD, often considered a safe-haven asset. On the other side, the Canadian Dollar (Loonie), closely tied to commodity prices, is getting a boost from high Crude Oil prices, which are hovering near their monthly high reached on Tuesday. This strength in the oil market could check further gains in the USD/CAD pair, making it a cautious play for those betting on a bullish trend.

Additional support for oil prices comes from talks of extended production cuts by OPEC+ and recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Iran-aligned Houthis from Yemen. These developments support the Loonie and could prevent significant appreciation in the USD/CAD pair. Traders are also likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach in anticipation of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index due on Thursday.

This critical US inflation data is expected to provide new insights into the Fed’s interest rate strategy, influencing USD demand and shaping the future direction of the USD/CAD pair. In the short term, traders will look for trading opportunities based on the upcoming Preliminary US GDP figures for Q4 and speeches from key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, which are scheduled later in the North American session.

 

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Australian Dollar Recovers from Intraday Losses

Australian Dollar Recovers from Intraday Losses Amid Stable US Dollar

Australian Dollar Recovers from Intraday Losses Amid Stable US Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has seen its winning streak, which began on February 14, come to a halt. This pause in the currency’s rise is partly attributed to the decline of the S&P/ASX 200 on Monday, a movement possibly linked to escalating tensions between China and Taiwan. Despite this setback, the Australian financial markets opened on a positive note, echoing the optimism that drove Wall Street to record highs last Friday. This bullish sentiment in the market was further fueled by Nvidia’s impressive earnings report, highlighting a surge in demand for artificial intelligence-related products.

As the week progresses, the Australian Dollar is expected to face subdued movement. Market participants are looking ahead to key economic announcements, including the Australian Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) due on Wednesday and Retail Sales figures set for release on Thursday. These data points are considered potential catalysts for market fluctuations. However, recent indicators showing a rebound in private sector activity in Australia during February, especially the significant growth in the services sector, have lent some support to the AUD’s value.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to exhibit stability, maintaining the gains it achieved in the previous two sessions. The strength of the US Dollar (USD) has been bolstered by solid employment figures and mixed results from the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the United States. These data points reinforce the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher interest rates as a strategy to counter inflationary pressures.

Market watchers are keenly awaiting further economic indicators from the US, including the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized for the fourth quarter, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The release of these reports, along with the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report, will be critical in shaping market dynamics and potentially influencing the direction of both the AUD and the USD.

In summary, while the Australian Dollar has experienced a minor setback in its upward trajectory, the currency’s future movements will be closely tied to the upcoming economic data releases and global market sentiments. Simultaneously, the stability of the US Dollar, underpinned by key economic data and Federal Reserve policies, will play a significant role in the foreign exchange market dynamics.

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Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Month

Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Month Low as BoJ Pivot Expectations Diminish

Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Month Low as BoJ Pivot Expectations Diminish

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been experiencing a defensive stance against the US Dollar (USD) for three consecutive days, approaching its weekly low as the European trading session begins on Friday. This trend is a result of diminishing investor confidence in the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) potential policy shift away from negative interest rates in the near future. Recent economic developments have played a crucial role in shaping this sentiment. Last week’s data revealed an unexpected downturn in Japan’s economy, with the nation slipping into a recession. This economic setback has significantly impacted investor expectations regarding the BoJ’s monetary policy direction.

Additionally, the current global financial climate, characterized by a risk-on approach, is another critical factor contributing to the Yen’s weakened position. Generally, in a risk-on environment, investors tend to move away from safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen, seeking higher returns in riskier investments. This shift in investment strategy has further pressured the Yen, contributing to its current defensive posture.

However, the situation is tempered by recent statements from Japanese officials. They have expressed a readiness to intervene in the market to prevent further weakening of the Yen. This stance from the government is a significant factor in deterring traders from making aggressive bearish bets on the Yen, especially considering the ongoing geopolitical risks that add to market uncertainty.

Simultaneously, the US Dollar itself is struggling to maintain a strong position. Despite recovering somewhat overnight from a nearly three-week low, the USD has not been able to sustain significant momentum. This lack of strong traction for the USD is also playing a role in preventing any substantial appreciation in the USD/JPY currency pair.

In the absence of significant macroeconomic data to guide market movements, these various factors are converging to create a complex and cautious trading environment for the USD/JPY pair. Investors are navigating a landscape where economic data, policy expectations, and global market sentiment are all influencing the dynamics of this currency pair. As they weigh these various factors, the outcome of this balancing act will likely dictate the short-term direction of the Yen against the Dollar.

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Japanese Yen Awaits FOMC Minutes for Clear Direction

Japanese Yen Awaits FOMC Minutes for Clear Direction

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is currently navigating through a period of uncertainty, maintaining a consistent range against the US Dollar (USD) as the European trading session unfolds on Wednesday. This stability in the currency pair is the result of conflicting forces impacting the Yen. On one hand, Japan is grappling with a recession, casting doubts on the timing of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) potential move away from its negative interest rates policy. This lingering uncertainty is perceived as a detrimental factor for the JPY.

Despite these challenges, the Yen finds some support from various quarters. Recent verbal interventions by Japanese authorities have played a role in this, signaling potential measures to support the currency. Additionally, a subdued risk appetite in global equity markets is bolstering the Yen’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

In contrast, the US Dollar is experiencing its own dynamics. Currently, the USD is trading defensively, hovering near its lowest level in nearly three weeks. Market participants are cautiously waiting for further clues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) approach to interest rate cuts. This wait-and-see attitude is prevalent as traders avoid taking strong directional positions until more information is available. The upcoming release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is highly anticipated. These minutes are expected to significantly influence USD price movements and could provide new momentum for the USD/JPY currency pair.

Meanwhile, the situation in the US bond market is offering some support to the Dollar. Elevated yields on US Treasury bonds are providing a tailwind for the Greenback. This support from the bond market could help mitigate any substantial downward movement in the USD/JPY pair.

The Yen’s trajectory is also being shaped by broader economic indicators and geopolitical developments. Factors such as global trade dynamics, shifts in commodity prices, and international political events could all play a role in influencing the currency’s strength.

As traders and investors dissect these various elements, the market’s focus is keenly set on the FOMC meeting minutes. The insights gleaned from these minutes could be crucial in shaping market expectations regarding the Fed’s monetary policy, thereby influencing the direction of the USD/JPY pair in the near term. With both currencies facing their unique sets of challenges and support mechanisms, the currency market awaits the next significant catalyst that could define the path ahead for the USD/JPY.

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Pound Drops Amid Cautious Market Sentiment, Awaiting BoE Bailey’s Speech

Pound Drops Amid Cautious Market Sentiment, Awaiting BoE Bailey’s Speech

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is currently experiencing a significant downturn as it grapples with the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy approach. This uncertainty is primarily rooted in the increasing risks of the United Kingdom entering a technical recession, a scenario that has investors and market analysts on edge. As a result, the GBP/USD pair has been under considerable pressure, particularly in the wake of a risk-averse market sentiment that has intensified ahead of the release of the United States inflation data for December.

This cautious market mood reflects broader concerns about the global economic outlook and the potential policy responses from major central banks, including the BoE. The central bank faces a challenging balancing act: it must decide whether to focus on preventing a further slowdown in the UK economy or to continue its efforts to control inflationary pressures. This dilemma is further complicated by the UK’s current economic scenario, characterized by slow growth and heightened inflation concerns.

In the coming days, the direction of the Pound Sterling will likely be heavily influenced by a forthcoming speech from Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England. Market participants are keenly awaiting his insights, particularly regarding the BoE’s perspective on interest rates and inflation. Bailey’s remarks will be scrutinized for any indications of the central bank’s future policy trajectory, which could either alleviate or exacerbate the current pressure on the Pound.

Additionally, the UK’s factory data, scheduled for release on Friday, will be another crucial factor influencing the Pound’s movement. The Industrial and Manufacturing Production data are particularly significant, as they provide valuable insights into the health of the UK’s industrial sector. A strong recovery in these figures could signal resilience in the UK economy and potentially lend some support to the Pound. On the other hand, weaker-than-expected data could exacerbate concerns about a recession, further dampening the currency’s prospects.

Investors and analysts are therefore closely monitoring these developments. The combination of Governor Bailey’s speech and the upcoming economic data will play a pivotal role in shaping market expectations and sentiment towards the Pound Sterling in the short term. The outcomes of these events could either provide a much-needed boost to the currency or add to the challenges it faces amid the current economic uncertainties.

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UK Industrial Action Seen as Minor Hurdle

UK Industrial Action Seen as Minor Hurdle by Investors Anticipating Economic Resilience

UK Industrial Action Seen as Minor Hurdle by Investors Anticipating Economic Resilience

Optimism in UK economic resilience is growing among investors, as they show increased confidence in UK assets, from currency to equities, despite facing natural disasters and labor strikes. Analysts have heightened their growth projections, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bloomberg Economics starting the year on a positive note for the economy.

The sterling has seen bullish trends, with forecasts for the currency turning positive for the first time in months, and a stronger performance against the dollar is anticipated. This optimism is bolstered by retail sector performance, hinting at an economic turnaround. However, risks persist with ongoing disruptions to transportation and healthcare services due to industrial actions, which could potentially throttle demand and prompt the Bank of England to maintain higher interest rates, affecting bond markets.

Sterling’s rally at the end of 2023, despite the dollar’s gains, keeps prospects for continued strength in 2024. Predictions by Goldman Sachs suggest the pound could reach $1.30 in six months, a significant increase from their earlier $1.20 estimate. Fidelity International is even more optimistic, projecting a rise to $1.40. As of the last trading, sterling was at $1.27.

UK economic indicators are more favorable than expected. The housing market defied a predicted slump, and mortgage approvals surpassed forecasts. The service sector’s performance, as measured by the final PMI readings for December, was also revised upward, suggesting a robust economic backdrop.

Wages are increasing in real terms, and with anticipated policy easing by the Bank of England, including expected rate cuts, the economy appears to be in a position to support growth-friendly fiscal measures. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt may find room for tax reductions ahead of the projected elections.

Recent statements by the Prime Minister highlighted the UK’s economic performance, which seems to outpace other major economies, with forthcoming data anticipated to show gains in overall economic and industrial production for November.

The retail sector has shown signs of strength, with Next Plc increasing its profit forecasts post-Christmas. However, HSBC Holdings Plc advises caution, suggesting a potential decline in consumer spending in the new year. Additionally, Citigroup Inc. strategists express concerns about the impact of higher interest rates and a weaker dollar on UK shares.

While the economic outlook is improving, it remains delicate, with risks such as high borrowing costs and strict fiscal policies. Households still face the aftermath of inflation, and upcoming GDP figures might indicate a technical recession. Furthermore, the UK is bracing for more industrial action, with strikes likely to impact the early 2024 economy.

For the bond market, the outlook is less optimistic, with a delayed recovery anticipated after the high yields experienced in 2023. Citigroup and Natwest predict yields could rise again, and some investors maintain a bearish outlook on UK government bonds.

After a significant rise in yields over the past two years, the trend reversed towards the end of 2023. However, some investors, like those at Federated Hermes Limited, express less certainty in the UK’s economic path moving forward, signaling a complex and uncertain economic landscape.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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