Market News

AUD: RBA Gov Lowe Speaks, As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

AUD: MI Leading Index m/m, it measures Change in the level of a composite index based on 9 economic indicators.

EUR: German PPI m/m, it measures Change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers.

GBP: CPI y/y, it measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

GBP: Core CPI y/y, it measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the volatile food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco items.

GBP: PPI Input m/m, it measures Change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers.

GBP: PPI Output m/m, it measures Change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers.

GBP: RPI y/y, it measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption.

EUR: Current Account, it measures Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous month.

GBP: HPI y/y, it measures Change in the selling price of homes.

CAD: CPI m/m, it measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

CAD: Common CPI y/y, it measures in the price of goods and services, purchased by consumers, which have similar price variations over time.

CAD: Median CPI y/y, it measures change in the median price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

CAD: Trimmed CPI y/y, it measures change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the most volatile 40% of items.

CAD: Core CPI m/m, it measures change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the 8 most volatile items.

CAD: IPPI m/m, it measures change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers.

CAD: RMPI m/m, it measures change in the price of raw materials purchased by manufacturers.

EUR: Consumer Confidence, it measures level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers.

USD: Existing Home Sales, it measures Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction.

USD: Crude Oil Inventories, it measures change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

4:09 am

Forex News

July 19, 2022

Upcoming Market Updates : AUD, CHF, GBP, EUR, USD

Upcoming Market Updates: AUD, CHF, GBP, EUR, USD

Time 04:30 AM GMT+3

AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, It’s a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

Time 05:00 AM GMT+3

AUD: RBA Deputy Gov Bullock Speaks, She’s responsible for advising Reserve Bank Board members – who decide where to set the nation’s key interest rates – on matters relating to economics, and her public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future policy shifts.

Time 09:00 AM GMT+3

CHF: Trade Balance, Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

Time 11:30 AM GMT+3

GBP: Average Earnings Index 3m/y, It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

Time 11:30 AM GMT+3

GBP: Claimant Count Change, it measures change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

Time 11:30 AM GMT+3

GBP: Unemployment Rate, it measures percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past 3 months.

Time 12:00 PM GMT+3

EUR: Final CPI y/y, it measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Time 12:00 PM GMT+3

EUR: Final Core CPI y/y, it measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco.

Time 03:30 PM GMT+3

USD: Building Permits, It’s an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building.

Time 03:30 PM GMT+3

USD: Housing Starts, it measures annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month.

Time 05:30 PM GMT+3

AUD: CB Leading Index m/m, it measures Change in the level of a composite index based on 7 economic indicators.

Time 09:35 PM GMT+3

USD: FOMC Member Brainard Speaks, Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

5:08 am

Forex News

July 18, 2022

Upcoming Market Updates : NZD, GBP, EURO, CAD, USD

Upcoming Market Updates : NZD,GBP,EURO, CAD, USD

Time 01:30 AM GMT+3

NZD: Business NZ Manufacturing Index, it measures level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers.

Time 01:45 AM GMT+3

NZD: CPI q/q, it measures change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

Time 02:01 AM GMT+3

GBP: Rightmove HPI m/m, it measures change in the asking price of homes for sale.

Time 11:00 AM GMT+3

EUR: Italian Trade Balance, it measures Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

Time 03:15 PM GMT+3

CAD: Housing Starts, it measures Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month.

Time 05:00 PM GMT+3

USD: NAHB Housing Market Index, it measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed home builders.

Time 11:00 PM GMT+3

USD: TIC Long-Term Purchases, it measures Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period.

5:30 am

Forex News

July 15, 2022

AUD low confidence on business conditions by uncertainty globally

AUD low confidence in business conditions by uncertainty globally

This week’s data from Australia highlighted the growing big difference between current activity and confidence.

The business conditions continue to show strength across the economy, confidence has fallen below its long-run average. Arguably this deterioration stems from the availability and price of labor and other inputs as well as the growing uncertainty globally. The rapid turn to monitory policy is also a cause of concern for business, though at the moment the impact on activity is limited given support from labor market and the full re-opening of the service sector. In the second half for 2022 and into 2023, business conditions are likely to come under greater pressure.

The labor market outlook should remain strongly positive, with the June employment print coming in materially higher that expectation at a strong 88k. The employment outcome also saw the unemployment rate fall 0.4ppts to 48-year low of 3.5% despite a 0.1ppt rise in participation. Australia’s labor market is clearly in unprecedented territory, with there now being one unemployed person per job vacancy and a record-high employment-to-population ratio. Gains over the remainder of 2022 will depend on how much further participation can rise as well as the outlook for immigration.

Australia’s arrival and departure data suggests material changes in labor supply through immigration will take time, with a robust increase in arrivals to 737k in June offset by a very strong lift in departures to 885k, reflecting the normalization of visitor flows as a recent short-term visitor arrivals cycle out as departures. This lack of positive new arrivals is also evident in the underlying detail.

7:14 am

Forex News

July 14, 2022

CPI Hits Another Four-Decade High USD rises.

CPI Hits Another Four-Decade High USD rises

USD rises as CPI hits another four decade high, data shows the headline consumer inflation accelerated once again in June to the highest level since 1981,US consumer inflation hit the high of 41 years and beat the forecast, 9.1% in June against 8.6% one month earlier and expected increase to 8.8%.

The above data resulted in a clear jump of USD and then falling back 100 points. Trader’s speculation increases that the Fed should do more than what is already done and suppress inflation. As mentioned above after the report, markets priced in two more 75 point rate hikes, June’s hike was extraordinary.

EURUSD parity was also triggered in a reaction to the market initially. The single currency has managed to find the demand on these levels. The same goes for other currencies which are running dollar but successfully holding their ground.

Markets have jumped over their heads in their expectations from the Fed. Considering the Oil and Metal prices are falling for about a month now. Excluding the prices of food and energy, has slowed down for the past three months to 5.9% which was 6.5% in march.

It would not be of a surprise if the Fed, were to reassure the markets that it would proceed more measuredly so not to overcool the economy.

6:18 am

Forex News

July 12, 2022

Gold Prices Approach Potential Support as US Dollar

NZD: Visitor Arrivals m/m, it measures change in the number of short-term overseas visitors who arrived in the country.

GBP: BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y, it measures change in the value of same-store sales at the retail level.

JPY: PPI y/y, it measures change in the price of goods sold by corporations.

AUD: Westpac Consumer Sentiment, it measures change in the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers.

AUD: NAB Business Confidence, it measures level of a diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry.

GBP: MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks, BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy

EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment, it measures level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts.

EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, ZEW Economic Sentiment, of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts.

EUR: German Buba President Nagel Speaks, ECB Governing Council members vote on where to set the Eurozone’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

USD: NFIB Small Business Index, it measures level of a composite index based on surveyed small businesses.

GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks, As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

USD: 10-y Bond Auction, Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors’ outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence.

4:51 am

Forex News

July 11, 2022

USD/JPY oversteps 137.00 as odds of further divergence in Fed-BOJ policy escalate

JPY: Core Machinery Orders m/m, it measures change in the total value of new private-sector purchase orders placed with manufacturers for machines, excluding ships and utilities.

JPY: M2 Money Stock y/y, it measures change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks.

JPY: Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, it measures change in the total value of new orders placed with machine tool manufacturers.

EUR: Italian Retail Sales m/m, it measures change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

USD: FOMC Member Williams Speaks, Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

5:36 am

Economic News

March 17, 2023

ECB Hike 50bps but Euro Slips

Dovish rate hike by ECB
EUR falls across the board
Attention turns to Lagarde at ECB presser

The ECB had set itself up to disappoint some market participants after talking up 50 basis points. As it turned out, and despite all the troubles in the banking sector, it stuck to script and delivered that 50-bps hike. Initially, the euro rose a tiny bit, but then it slumped. The DAX hit a new weekly and multi-month low, before bouncing back a little off its worst levels. Keep an eye on the EUR/JPY, which could drop to a new low for the year in light of the risk off sentiment.

Traders realized that this was the best ECB could have done in these circumstances. By not hiking and going back on their words, this would have seen the ECB lose some credibility. It had to hike. But here is the clever bit: the ECB also didn’t want to disappoint those who were calling for a smaller or no rate hike at all. So, it provided no forward guidance or commitment to future hikes. It said that “the elevated level of uncertainty reinforces the importance of a data-dependent approach to the Governing Council’s policy rate decision”. In other words, this was as dovish a rate hike as you would have seen in these circumstances.

In addition to providing no forward guidance, it said that it has the toolkit to provide liquidity support if needed and that it is ready to respond to financial and price stability risks.

But the ECB could deliver more rate hikes, if the financial stability risks subside. It hasn’t ruled out the chance for more rate hikes.

Indeed, inflation remains uncomfortably high, which may require further tightening down the line. The recently released Eurozone inflation data barely slowed in February. Headline CPI eased a tad to 8.5% annual pace but remained above expectations of a slowdown to 8.3%. Meanwhile core CPI accelerated to a fresh record high of 5.6% from 5.3%. Core inflation is the key focus for the ECB and the fact that it rose further warrants even more tightening.

7:19 am

Economic News

March 16, 2023

AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired By Failure To Test

AUD/USD appears to be reversing course ahead of the 200-Day SMA as it fails to clear the week high, but data prints coming out of Australia may prop up the exchange rate as job growth is expected to rebound in February.

AUD/USD largely mirrors the weakness across the commodity bloc currencies as it gives back the advance from the monthly low 0.6565, and the exchange rate may track the negative slope in the long-term moving average as the Reserve Bank of Australia seems to be nearing the end of its hiking-cycle.

The update to Australia’s Employment report may generate a bullish reaction in AUD/USD as the economy is anticipated to add 48.5k jobs in February, and a positive development may push the RBA to pursue a more restrictive policy as the Board expects that further tightening of monetary policy will be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target.

In turn, AUD/USD may face headwinds ahead of the next RBA rate decision as Governor Lowe and Co. prepare Australian households and businesses for a wait-and-see approach, and the exchange rate may struggle to retain the advance from the monthly low 0.6565 amid the failed attempt to clear the week high 0.6717.

AUD/USD bounced back from a fresh yearly low during the previous week to keep the Relative Strength Index out of oversold territory, but the exchange rate appears to be reversing course ahead of the 200-Day SMA amid the failed attempt to clear the week high.

AUD/USD may track the negative slope in the long-term moving average following the dip below the 0.6600 handle, with a move below the monthly low opening up the 0.6520 to 0.6550 area.

Failure to test the monthly low may keep AUD/USD within the March range, with a move above 0.6660 raising the scope for another run at the long-term moving average.

7:19 am

Economic News

March 15, 2023

Sentiment Improves as China Data Boosts Hopes of 5% Growth

China’s banks lent a record 4.9 trillion yen in January as the economy reopened from lockdowns. And there was some anticipation to see whether the new loans were making their way through the economy to aid the governments GDP target of around 5% this year. Early data suggests they are:

Retail rose to 3.5% as expected, up from -1.8% previously.

Fixed asset investment rose 5.5%, above 4.4% expected and 5.1% prior.

Industrial output rose 2.4% y/y. This was below estimates of 2.6% y/y, is a big improvement from 1.4% in January.

During the accompanying press conference, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) cited seasonality for the slight rise in the unemployment rate to 5.5%, but more importantly, China’s growth target of around 5% is in line with economic data although the economy does face many challenges.

They are certainly an improvement and will contribute to Q1 GDP figures. And against the backdrop of the bad start to the week we had regarding the fallout from SVB, a little good news can make a big difference to help sentiment. The data saw Asian equities and US future point higher, along with AUD, EUR and GBP which are currently the strongest majors.

AUD/JPY:

A bullish trend is developing on the 1-hour chart. Strong volumes accompanied yesterday’s rally to the high, and prices are continuing to drift higher today in Asia whilst respecting trend support. Prices are also above the 20 and 50-bar EMA’s around 89.50, a level which the bias remains above. Bulls will need to break prices above the round number of 90, and a resistance zone also sits nearby between 90.20/30 – but if we can get above here, it opens up a run for the highs around 91.

It need appetite for risk to pick up today for risk pairs such as AUD/JPY to benefit, and the idea scenario would be higher yields, equities and commodity FX. But if sentient turns sour, a clear break beneath 89.50 would pique our bearish interest.

8:00 am

Economic News

March 14, 2023

Gold Price Rallies As SVB Failure Casts Doubt for Fed Rate Hikes

The price of gold carves a series of higher highs and lows following the failed attempt to test the February low of $1805, and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) may continue to heighten the appeal of bullion as market participants scale back bets for higher US interest rates.

The price of gold trades back above the 50-day SMA as it rallies to a fresh monthly high, and the precious metal may once again track the positive slope in the moving average as fears surrounding the US banking sector drags on the risk-taking behavior.

As a result, the threat of contagion may lead to a flight to safety even as the Federal Reserve announces that it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors, and it remains to be seen if the Federal Open Market Committee will adjust the forward guidance for monetary policy as central bank is slated to release the updated Summary of Economic Projections on March 22.

Until then, the price of gold may continue to retrace the decline from the February high as the CME FedWatch Tool now reflects a greater than 90% probability for a terminal rate of 4.75% to 5.00%, and developments coming out of the US may keep the precious metal afloat as the update to the US Consumer Price Index is anticipated to show slowing inflation.

The price of gold trades back above the 50-day SMA after reversing ahead of the February low, and bullion may once again track the positive slope in the moving average as it breaks out of the opening range for March.

The recent series of higher highs and lows in the price of gold may push the Relative Strength Index into overbought territory, with a move above 70 in the oscillator likely to be accompanied by a further advance in price hike the behavior seen earlier this year.

The move above $1897 brings the $1928 region on the radar, with a move above the February high opening up the $1973 area.
However, lack of momentum to test the $1928 region may undermine the recent rally in the price of gold, with a move below the 50-day SMA raising the scope for a run at $1859.

7:25 am

Economic News

March 13, 2023

Preview of NZ Q4 GDP

The expectation is 0.2% fall in GDP for the December Quarter, following two quarters of extremely strong growth.

This does not necessarily mark the start of a recession. GDP data has been choppy since Covid, and the details don’t tell a consistent story about whether monetary policy is biting.

Nevertheless, it does show that the economy is coming from a less overheated starting point than the Reserve Bank thought.
We think that will nudge them towards a smaller 25 basis point hike at the April OCR review.

The New Zealand economy went on a tear through the middle part of last year, as the return of overseas tourists lifted GDP by almost 4% over the June and September quarters. Coming off the back of that, we were already bracing for much more subdued growth in December quarter. But the final batch of indicators released last week actually suggest a slight contraction. We now estimate that GDP fell by 0.2% in the December quarter.

The details don’t tell as clean a story as we might like about the Reserve Bank’s efforts to slow the economy. Goods-producing sectors were softer across the board in the December quarter, with retail, wholesaling, manufacturing and construction all likely recording declines. But services sectors are still looking robust – and not just those relating to international tourism, but areas like professional services as well. There’s no obvious reason why tight monetary policy would have such disparate effects.

Expectations are of 25bp hike in April.

The RBNZ’s February projections sat somewhere between a 25 and a 50 basis point hike at the next OCR review on 5 April. Previously we favored a 50 point move, on the basis that the RBNZ’a recent tactic have been to move quickly towards where it thinks the OCR needs to be. But with the likelihood of a much weaker than expected GDP result – and effectively no other major data releases between now and April – we now expect the RBNZ to lean towards a smaller 25 basis point increase.

The April review is not a full Monetary Policy Statement so the RBNZ won’t be publishing new projections anyway. But in February there was a sense that the RBNZ has deferred the question of how high interest rates will need to go until the May review, when they will have a better sense of the inflationary effects of both the cyclone’s impact and the fiscal response.

8:36 am

Economic News

March 10, 2023

USD/JPY Outlook Mired by Failure to Test December High

USD/JPY appears to be reversing ahead of the December 2022 high 138.18 as it fails to hold above 200-day SMA, but the Bank Of Japan interest rate decision may curb the recent decline in the exchange rate as the central bank is expected to retain its easing cycle.

USD/JPY snaps the series of higher highs and lows from earlier this week to keep the Relative Strength Index below overbought territory, and the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from earlier this month as the oscillator shows the bullish momentum abating.

However, the BOJ is expected to retain the Quantitative and Qualitative Easing program with Yield-Curve Control at Governor Haruhiko Kurdo’s last meeting, and more of the same from the central bank may produce headwinds for the Japanese Yen as the board retains a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy.

In turn, USD/JPY may continue to hold above the monthly low as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warns of higher interest rates, and data prints coming out of the US fuel speculation for a more restrictive policy as the NFP report is anticipated to show a further improvement in job/wage growth.

USD/JPY snaps the recent series of higher highs and lows after failing to test the December 2022 high, with the Relative Strength Index still below 70 as the exchange rate struggles to hold above the 200-day SMA.

A close below the 136.00 handle may lead to a test of the monthly low as the bullish momentum abates, with the next area of interest coming in around 132.60 to 133.90.

Nevertheless, USD/JPY mat stage further attempts to test the December 2022 high if it closes above the 136.00 handle, with the next region of interest coming in around 138.70 to 140.00.

7:54 am

Economic News

March 9, 2023

EUR/USD Takes Out February Low Ahead of US Jobs Report

EUR/USD takes out the February low following the failed attempts to trade back above the 50-day SMA, and developments coming out of the US may keep the exchange rate under pressure as the NFP report is anticipated to show another rise in employment.

EUR/USD fails to defend the opening range for March as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warns of a higher trajectory for US interest rates, and the exchange rate may struggle to hold above the January low amid growing speculation for a 50bp Fed rate hike.

According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, market participants are pricing a greater than 70% probability for the Fed funds rate to increase to a fresh threshold of 5.00% to 5.25% on March 22, and it remains to be seen if Chairman Powell and Co. will project a steeper path for US interest rates as the central bank is scheduled to update the Summary of Economic Projections.

EUR/USD trades to fresh monthly low of 1.0524 after failing to push back above the 50-day SMA, and the exchange rate may attempt to test the January low as long as it holds below the moving average.
Failure to defend the yearly opening range may push EUR/USD towards the December 2022 low, with a move below 1.0370 raising the scope for a run at the 200-day SMA.

However, lack of momentum to test the January low may lead to range bound conditions in EUR/USD, with a move above 1.0610 bringing the 50-day SMA 1.0723 back on the radar.