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EUR-USD

EUR/USD Drops Near 1.0600 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Grow

EUR/USD Drops Near 1.0600 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Grow

EUR/USD has dropped to near 1.0610, marking its sixth consecutive session of decline, amid trading in the Asian markets on Tuesday. The strong US Dollar, buoyed by rising US Treasury yields and solid retail sales data, is applying pressure on the Euro.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to approximately 106.20. Current yields for 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds are 4.92% and 4.60%, respectively. These increases are partly due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have driven investors towards the safety of the US Dollar.

March’s US Retail Sales showed a 0.7% rise, surpassing the anticipated 0.3% and revising February’s figures from 0.6% to 0.9%. The Retail Sales Control Group also reported a significant increase of 1.1%, which was a jump from the prior 0.3%.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly commented on the economic outlook, noting that while inflation has somewhat subsided, the journey to stable prices is not over. Daly stressed the necessity for inflation to consistently approach the target before any policy adjustments are made. She also pointed out the robust growth of the economy and the strong labor market, even though inflation rates remain above desired levels.

Conversely, the Euro’s value is weakening due to cautious statements from European Central Bank (ECB) officials. ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus hinted at a more than 50% chance of over three interest rate cuts this year. Additionally, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane indicated that domestic inflation has not improved as much as other inflation metrics. Despite this, Lane remains optimistic about reaching the inflation target by 2025.

These various economic indicators and policy statements from key central bank figures are shaping investor expectations and market dynamics, influencing the EUR/USD currency pair’s movements.

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NZD/USD

NZD/USD Holds Near 0.5950 as Business NZ PSI Enters Contraction

NZD/USD Holds Near 0.5950 as Business NZ PSI Enters Contraction

The NZD/USD has made a slight recovery from its five-month trough of 0.5927, observed on Monday, stabilizing around 0.5950 in the Asian trading session. This modest rebound occurs amidst a backdrop of economic concerns as New Zealand’s services sector reenters contraction territory. The Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for March distressingly fell to 47.5 from a previous 52.6, signaling a downturn in the sector.

Doug Steel, a Senior Economist at Bank of New Zealand (BNZ), commented on the implications of the latest PSI data. He noted that combining this weak service sector performance with the poor results from last week’s Manufacturing PMI points to a potential sharp contraction in GDP. Steel suggested that GDP could shrink by over 2% from last year, a forecast much gloomier than most analysts’ expectations.

Looking ahead, investors and market analysts are gearing up for a critical week of economic releases. Significant attention is centered on China, New Zealand’s principal trading partner, which will disclose several key economic figures on Tuesday. These include the Q1 GDP growth rate along with March’s Industrial Output and Retail Sales data. The anticipation around these releases is high as they could indicate shifts in regional economic dynamics.

Furthermore, domestic focus will soon turn to New Zealand’s own economic health with the upcoming release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. This inflation metric is crucial for gauging the country’s economic trajectory and potential monetary policy adjustments.

In the United States, the economic landscape appears robust by comparison. Recent data revealed a higher-than-expected rise in the Core Producer Price Index (PPI), with a year-over-year increase of 2.4% in March, surpassing the forecasted 2.3%. This indicates persistent inflationary pressures, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its monetary easing strategies.

Market watchers are also poised for the release of the US Retail Sales figures next Monday, which will provide further insights into consumer confidence and spending trends. Additionally, the financial community will closely follow a panel discussion featuring Lorie K. Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, at the upcoming BoJ-IMF conference.

These upcoming events underscore a week filled with pivotal economic data that could influence global financial markets and inform future monetary policy decisions in both New Zealand and abroad.

 

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USD-CHF

USD/CHF Rises Above 0.9100 Before US PPI Data

USD/CHF Rises Above 0.9100 Before US PPI Data

In the early European session on Thursday, the USD/CHF currency pair exhibited a bullish momentum, climbing to 0.9125, marking its highest level since October 2023. This upward trend in the pair is primarily attributed to the unexpectedly high U.S. inflation figures for March, which have led investors to revise their predictions regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, now leaning away from a reduction this year. This shift in investor sentiment has fortified the U.S. Dollar (USD), lending it considerable support.

The shift in expectations came after the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which indicated a significant and unanticipated increase. This surge in inflation resulted in analysts pushing back their forecasts for the first rate cut, now expected in September instead of the previously anticipated June. Breaking down the numbers, the headline CPI witnessed a 0.4% month-over-month increase in March, while the annual CPI saw a 3.5% year-over-year jump. Even more telling was the Core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy sectors; it rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and exhibited a substantial 3.8% increase from the previous year.

The minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting further underscored concerns about persistently high inflation. Federal Reserve officials expressed unease regarding inflation levels, which continued to exceed the Fed’s 2% target. This discomfort, coupled with the recent data, did little to boost confidence that inflation was on a trajectory towards this target. Consequently, the persistence of higher U.S. interest rates has been a significant factor propelling the USD upwards, which in turn has positively impacted the USD/CHF pair.

Concurrently, the geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Middle East, introduces a layer of uncertainty that could influence currency markets. The ongoing tensions and the precarious nature of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas add to this uncertainty. The recent statements by Israel’s Foreign Minister, Israel Kat, were a stark reminder of the volatile situation. He cautioned that Israel would respond firmly if Iran initiated an attack from its territory. This statement followed remarks by Iran’s supreme leader, who called for retribution against Israel for a perceived attack on an Iranian consulate in Syria the previous week.

Such geopolitical tensions typically result in an increased demand for safe-haven assets, with the Swiss Franc (CHF) often being a beneficiary of such shifts in investor preference. Therefore, while the USD gains strength from domestic economic factors, the CHF could see a boost from these international developments, making the USD/CHF pair one to watch closely in the current global context.

 

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RBA Holding Rates Steady

AUD/JPY Nears 99.90 Amid Expectations of RBA Holding Rates Steady

AUD/JPY Nears 99.90 Amid Expectations of RBA Holding Rates Steady

The Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY) exchange rate has shown a significant uptrend, reaching nearly 99.90 during Monday’s European trading session. This bullish trend in the currency pair is largely driven by the robust performance of the Australian Dollar, buoyed by positive developments in Australia’s domestic financial markets. A key contributor to this strength is the notable rise in the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX 200 Index), especially with a marked surge in the technology sector at the week’s onset.

Complementing the Australian Dollar’s rise is the uptick in Australia’s 10-year government bond yield, which has soared to approximately 4.1%, marking a new high in over a month. This increase mirrors the rally in U.S. bond yields, triggered by unexpectedly strong U.S. job data. Consequently, there’s growing speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may opt for a prolonged period of higher interest rates.

Investor sentiment is tilting away from the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) implementing rate cuts anytime in 2024. This shift is underpinned by the recent positive economic indicators from the U.S., which hint at sustained higher borrowing costs in the world’s largest economy. Such expectations are lending support to the Australian Dollar, further propelling the AUD/JPY pair upward.

Despite these gains, the Australian Dollar faced some pressure last week due to stagnant Final Retail Sales and less-than-optimistic Trade Balance data. Market watchers remain vigilant regarding the trajectory of copper and oil prices, as any significant appreciation in these commodities could bolster the Australian Dollar further, positively influencing the AUD/JPY pair.

On the other side of the pairing, the Japanese Yen is experiencing downward pressure, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) showing reticence towards any major policy tightening moves. Furthermore, easing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are reducing the traditional safe-haven appeal of the Yen. Notably, Israel’s recent decision to pull back additional troops from Southern Gaza, potentially in response to international pressures, has contributed to this de-escalation.

Adding to the mix, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent remarks indicate a possible shift in the BoJ’s policy approach. Speaking about his tenure, which began about a year ago, Governor Ueda expressed an interest in simplifying and clarifying the central bank’s policy framework, contingent on favorable economic conditions. This potential policy shift, coupled with the global economic landscape, plays a pivotal role in shaping the dynamics of the AUD/JPY currency pair.

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EUR/USD Declines Toward

EUR/USD Declines Toward 1.0830 Amid Market Caution, Attention on US NFP Data

EUR/USD Declines Toward 1.0830 Amid Market Caution, Attention on US NFP Data

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) continues its downward trajectory that began on Thursday, approaching a value near 1.0830 during the Asian trading session on Friday. This movement reflects an increase in market caution, significantly influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have bolstered the US Dollar (USD).

The current geopolitical climate has become more strained following Iran’s vow to retaliate against Israel’s recent attack on its embassy in Syria, an incident that resulted in the deaths of Iranian military personnel. Additionally, new reports suggesting heightened threats against Israeli embassies in the United States by Iran have further intensified market apprehensions.

On the economic front, the USD experienced some downward pressure due to less-than-robust employment data from the United States. Despite this, remarks from several Federal Reserve officials that were perceived as neutral seem to have curbed a steeper decline in the USD’s value.

In terms of specific data, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 29 increased to 221,000 from the previous week’s figure of 212,000, though it was still below market expectations of 214,000. US Challenger Job Cuts for March also showed an increase, reaching 90,309, which is above the previous figure of 84,638.On the other side of the Atlantic, the Eurozone’s economic indicators paint a mixed picture. The Eurostat Producer Price Index (PPI) for February showed a decrease of 1.0%, surpassing expectations and marking a more significant decline than in previous months. Furthermore, the year-over-year decline in the PPI also outstripped expectations, though by a smaller margin. 

The Eurozone’s Composite PMI also showed signs of improvement, indicating a slight expansion in economic activity. Interestingly, the latest inflation data from the Eurozone shows a sharper-than-expected decrease in the annual rate for March. This development fuels speculation about potential monetary policy actions by the European Central Bank (ECB), with some market participants anticipating a possible rate cut in June. As traders navigate these multifaceted economic and geopolitical landscapes, they keenly await upcoming data releases. Significant among these are Germany’s Factory Orders and Eurozone Retail Sales. 

From the United States, the market is particularly focused on the upcoming release of Average Hourly Earnings and Nonfarm Payrolls data, which are considered crucial indicators of the country’s economic health.

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USD/CAD Nears

USD/CAD Nears 1.3560, Drops Due to Rising Crude Oil Prices

USD/CAD Nears 1.3560, Drops Due to Rising Crude Oil Prices

The USD/CAD currency pair continues its downward trajectory for the second consecutive day, inching closer to 1.3560 in the Asian trading session on Wednesday. This negative movement is primarily influenced by the robust performance of Crude oil prices, which bolsters the Canadian Dollar (CAD), thereby exerting a downward force on the USD/CAD pair.

Crude oil prices, particularly Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), are hovering around $84.80, marking their highest point since October 2023. This surge in oil prices can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the weakening of the US Dollar and rising concerns over supply disruptions due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Furthermore, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the US Dollar against a basket of major currencies, is facing a downward pressure, contributing to the weakening of the USD/CAD pair. This weakening of the DXY comes in the wake of dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Notably, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed an expectation of potential rate cuts later in the year. Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that three rate cuts in 2024 might be “reasonable,” though such a decision would depend on further convincing economic evidence.

In recent US economic news, data released on Tuesday highlighted some key figures. The US February JOLTS Job Openings report showed an increase to 8.756 million, up from the previous figure of 8.748 million, exceeding market expectations. Additionally, there was a notable rebound in Factory Orders, which rose by 1.4% month-on-month in February, following a 3.8% decline in the previous period.

Investors and market participants are now turning their attention to upcoming economic data releases. For Canada, the focus is on the Import and Export data due on Thursday, and the labor market data scheduled for release on Friday. In the United States, key data points include the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, both set for release on Wednesday. Moreover, the US economic outlook is set to gain further clarity with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum in Stanford.

Overall, the combination of strong Crude oil prices, dovish statements from Fed officials, and upcoming economic data releases are key factors influencing the movement of the USD/CAD pair, with market participants closely monitoring these developments to gauge future trends.

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NZD/USD Nears 0.5980 Amid Fed's Powell Dovish

NZD/USD Nears 0.5980 Amid Fed’s Powell Dovish Remarks, Eyes on US ISM PMI

NZD/USD Nears 0.5980 Amid Fed’s Powell Dovish Remarks, Eyes on US ISM PMI

The NZD/USD currency pair has continued its upward trajectory for the second straight day, making notable gains during Monday’s Asian trading session and approaching the 0.5980 mark. This upward movement comes in the wake of dovish statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday. Powell’s comments, particularly regarding the recent Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data from the United States, have been interpreted as aligning with the Fed’s openness to potential interest rate reductions this year.

Adding to this sentiment, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller has expressed that there’s no urgency to implement rate cuts, given the persistent inflationary pressures. Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly has underlined the Fed’s readiness to adjust rates as necessary based on evolving data, while also highlighting the strength of the US economy and downplaying the likelihood of an imminent downturn.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been facing headwinds, partly due to lower yields on US Treasury bonds. The DXY is currently hovering around 104.50, with yields on the 2-year and 10-year US bonds at 4.60% and 4.19%, respectively. Despite these challenges, Fed officials are still projecting three rate reductions within the year, with market anticipations leaning towards the first cut occurring at the Fed’s June meeting.

On the other side of the pairing, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is experiencing its own pressures, fueled by speculations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might start reducing policy rates early next year. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr has noted the central bank’s progress in reining in inflation to within its target range. Orr has also suggested that the peak in interest rates has likely been reached, paving the way for potential rate cuts.

Further boosting the Kiwi Dollar, recent data from China has shown encouraging signs. The Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March indicated that manufacturing activity in China expanded for the first time in six months. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI reported a figure of 51.1, slightly above expectations and the previous month’s figure of 50.9. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.8 in March from 49.1 previously, while the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.0 from 51.4.

Looking ahead, traders are likely to approach the market with caution as they await the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI from the United States, scheduled for later in the North American session. Additionally, upcoming data releases, such as the Building Permits from Statistics New Zealand this Thursday, will be closely monitored for their potential impact on currency movements.

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Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold Price Consolidates Below $2,750 Amid Mixed Market Signals

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to trade within a narrow range near the $2,740 level during early European trading on Tuesday. The market remains influenced by conflicting factors, leaving traders hesitant to make strong directional moves.

US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade tariff threats have sparked inflationary concerns, driving a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, supports a recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent one-month low, creating downward pressure on gold prices.

However, fears of potential economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies are providing support for the safe-haven asset, helping limit its downside. Market participants are also exercising caution ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while US macroeconomic data due later in the day could further influence market sentiment.

Key Developments Impacting Gold Prices

  1. Trade Tariff Concerns:
    President Trump recently announced emergency tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports, though implementation was delayed following an agreement on the acceptance of illegal migrants returned from the US. Trump also signaled impending tariffs on pharmaceuticals, computer chips, aluminum, copper, and potentially steel. These moves have heightened fears of inflation and pushed US Treasury bond yields higher, bolstering the USD and weighing on gold.
  2. Monetary Policy Speculation:
    Despite Trump’s tariff announcements, markets are pricing in two potential 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. This expectation could cap bond yields and limit USD gains, offering some support to gold prices.
  3. Data and Events to Watch:
    Later on Tuesday, US economic data such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index may provide additional trading cues. The spotlight will then shift to Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which could significantly impact USD dynamics and set the tone for gold’s next directional move.

Technical Outlook: Resistance and Support Levels

Gold prices showed resilience on Monday, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January uptrend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, reinforcing the case for an upward bias.

  • Support Levels:
    Immediate support lies near $2,730, followed by the $2,725-2,750 zone. A break below these levels could push prices toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $2,707-2,705, and further to the 50% level around $2,684.
  • Resistance Levels:
    The nearest resistance is at $2,755-2,757, with further hurdles at $2,772-2,773 and $2,786. A decisive break above $2,800 would signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a test of the all-time high near $2,790 and further gains.

Outlook for Gold

Gold prices remain range-bound as traders weigh opposing forces of inflationary concerns and safe-haven demand. A move above $2,755-2,757 is necessary for bulls to regain control in the short term, while a break below $2,730 would signal deeper corrections. With critical economic data and the FOMC decision on the horizon, gold’s next big move may hinge on shifting market dynamics in the coming days.

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Supermicro Stock Skyrockets 29% After Investigation Clears Fraud Allegations

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), popularly known as Supermicro, saw its stock price soar by 29% on Monday, closing around $42 per share. This significant jump follows the conclusion of a governance investigation that found no evidence of fraud or misconduct, boosting investor confidence.

Investigation Findings: No Fraud or Misconduct

The investigation, initiated by a special committee in August, addressed concerns raised by Ernst & Young (EY), Supermicro’s former auditor, regarding governance, sales practices, and financial reporting. Key findings include:

  1. Management Integrity: The committee found no substantial concerns regarding the integrity of Supermicro’s senior management, audit committee, or financial reporting practices.
  2. Audit Independence: The audit committee demonstrated appropriate independence and oversight during financial reporting.
  3. Rehiring Practices: The company’s decision to rehire certain employees was deemed consistent with a commitment to legal compliance and accurate financial reporting.

EY’s concerns were ultimately found unsupported, with the committee emphasizing the accuracy of interim and final findings.

Governance Overhaul and Next Steps

To strengthen its governance, Supermicro has embraced the committee’s recommendations, including:

  • Leadership Appointments: Hiring a new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), appointing Kenneth Cheung as Chief Accounting Officer, and recruiting a Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel.
  • Enhanced Oversight: Improving internal accounting and compliance systems, with better training, monitoring, and oversight practices.

The company has also filed a compliance plan with Nasdaq to catch up on overdue financial reports, ensuring continued listing.

Stock Performance: Recovery in Progress

Supermicro’s stock had plummeted by 85% in mid-November, hitting $17 per share, following its October 10-for-1 stock split and governance concerns. However, confidence rebounded after the investigation’s positive findings. Since November 15, the stock has surged back to $42, marking a 48% year-to-date increase.

With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio dropping from 79 in March to 16, Supermicro’s valuation is now drawing comparisons to AI-driven market leaders like NVIDIA. Its focus on AI-enabled servers for high-performance computing positions it as a key player in the tech sector.

Investor Considerations

While the governance investigation cleared Supermicro of fraud, investors are advised to exercise caution until the company releases its delayed financial reports. These filings will provide deeper insights into its financial health and help solidify its recovery. For now, Supermicro’s low valuation and strong earnings potential make it a compelling, albeit cautious, investment opportunity.

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Asian Stocks Decline on Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Falls on Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian Stocks Drop Amid Geopolitical Tensions; Nikkei Slides on Strong Inflation Data

Asian equities fell on Friday as geopolitical concerns and strong economic data from Japan weighed on sentiment. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict further dampened risk appetite, while China’s tech sector provided a rare bright spot amid easing regulatory fears.

Key Market Highlights

Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Markets
Russia intensified its attacks on Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and escalating the conflict. President Vladimir Putin issued threats to strike decision-making centers in Kyiv with ballistic missiles, exacerbating global geopolitical uncertainty.

Broad Declines Across Asia

  • Thailand’s SET Index: Dropped 0.2%.
  • Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite: Declined 0.8%.
  • South Korea’s KOSPI: Fell nearly 2%, driven by a 1.8% drop in Samsung Electronics and a 0.7% decline in SK Hynix. Concerns over slowing economic growth deepened after data showed declines in industrial output, retail sales, and facility investment in October.
  • Australia’s ASX 200: Edged 0.3% lower.
  • Malaysia’s KLCI: Dipped 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Slips Amid Yen Strength
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, and the TOPIX index declined 0.3% as the yen strengthened to a one-month high against the U.S. dollar. Strong inflation data from Tokyo fueled speculation of a Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike in December.

  • Tokyo’s core consumer prices exceeded expectations in November, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled plans to tighten monetary policy further, supported by a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and steady inflation.

Chinese Tech Stocks Buck the Trend
Contrary to broader declines, Chinese equities rallied:

  • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300: Rose 1.6%.
  • Shanghai Composite: Gained 1.4%.
  • Hang Seng Index: Jumped 1.3%.

Reports suggested that the U.S. may impose less severe sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry than initially feared.

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) surged over 4%.
  • Hua Hong Semiconductor climbed 3.7%.

Investors are optimistic about Beijing’s recent stimulus measures, and a Reuters poll anticipates modest growth in China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November, due Saturday.

Outlook

The Asia-Pacific region remains under pressure from geopolitical risks and mixed economic signals. Japan’s inflation dynamics could shift BOJ policy, while China’s tech rally might offer temporary relief amid broader concerns of an economic slowdown.

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WTI Steady at $69 Amid Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

WTI Steadies Near $69.00 Amid Mixed Signals from Geopolitical Risks and US Crude Inventory Build

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark for crude oil, is trading near $68.95 during Thursday’s session, maintaining a steady stance amid conflicting market drivers. A modest build in US crude inventories and weak Chinese demand weigh on prices, while escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine offer potential support.

US Crude Inventory Build Weighs on Prices
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of 0.545 million barrels in US crude stockpiles for the week ending November 15, slightly above market expectations of a 0.400 million barrel rise but significantly lower than the previous week’s 2.089 million barrel build. The smaller-than-expected inventory increase adds mild pressure to oil prices.

Weak Chinese Demand Adds Downside Pressure
China’s demand for crude oil continues to show weakness, dampening the outlook for global consumption. In October, China’s crude oil demand fell by 5.4% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects demand growth in China to reach just 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, a sharp decline compared to the 1.4 million bpd growth seen in 2023.

Geopolitical Risks Provide Support
Heightened geopolitical tensions involving major oil producers Russia and Ukraine are keeping supply-side concerns alive. This week, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a facility in the Bryansk region with ATACMS missiles, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for a potential nuclear response. Such risks could disrupt oil supplies, offering a counterbalance to bearish demand factors.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, highlighted, “These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook.”

Outlook
WTI prices remain at the mercy of mixed signals, with inventory builds and sluggish Chinese demand capping gains while geopolitical risks lend underlying support. Traders will look toward further updates on geopolitical developments and upcoming economic data to gauge the balance between supply and demand factors in the oil market.

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Gold Prices Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold Prices Remain Under Pressure as Stronger USD Weighs Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade lower for the second consecutive session on Thursday, impacted by a stronger U.S. Dollar following former President Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. election. The dollar-denominated precious metal is seeing diminished safe-haven appeal as market optimism increases, supported by clearer political outcomes.

Investor focus is now on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve decision, with markets largely anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut. If realized, this could offer some support for Gold, as lower interest rates tend to reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 98.1% likelihood of this modest rate reduction.

Market Dynamics: Gold Struggles Amid Higher Yields and “Trump Trades”

Non-yielding Gold faces additional pressure from surging U.S. Treasury yields, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields hitting 4.31% and 4.47%, respectively, their highest levels since July. Furthermore, the prospect of increased inflation due to Trump’s policy stance, which includes higher trade tariffs and fiscal spending, could prompt some investors to seek Gold as a long-term inflation hedge.

Trump’s proposed economic policies—such as imposing tariffs, expanding the fiscal deficit, and cutting taxes—might conflict with the Federal Reserve’s inflation control goals, likely resulting in a slower pace of monetary easing.

Gold prices have been relatively unaffected by ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran’s warning of potential retaliation against Israel’s recent actions.

Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data from this week’s ISM and PMI releases reflect a resilient services sector. The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, exceeding forecasts, while the S&P Global Services PMI reported a slight dip, coming in at 55.0.

Technical Outlook: Key Support and Resistance Levels for Gold

Gold currently trades near $2,650 per ounce, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of bearish momentum. On the daily chart, Gold remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under 50, both indicating a bearish trend.

On the downside, the next support level sits around $2,603.53, representing a three-week low. A break below this level could push Gold toward the critical $2,500 mark.

Conversely, immediate resistance is found near the psychological level of $2,700, with further resistance at the nine-day EMA of $2,711.40. A breakout above this zone could position Gold to retest its recent high of $2,790.11 reached on October 31.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits US Macro Data for Direction

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains robust as it approaches the European session on Tuesday, trading just above the $2,750 mark and close to last week’s all-time high. Geopolitical risks and political uncertainties in the US continue to boost demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, lower US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment lend further support to gold.

At the same time, expectations for smaller Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are expected to support US bond yields, which could help the US Dollar (USD) recover some of the previous session’s losses. This, in turn, tempers new bullish momentum in non-yielding gold as investors await key US economic data releases this week, likely to influence the Fed’s rate outlook and provide new direction for XAU/USD.

Market Movers: Gold Supported by Mixed Factors, USD Buying Limits Gains

The retreat in US Treasury yields led to an intraday pullback in the USD from recent highs, encouraging some dip-buying near $2,725 early this week. Recent positive US data dampened expectations for substantial Fed rate cuts, potentially bolstering bond yields amid concerns about deficit spending after the November 5 election. With the US election drawing near, markets face additional uncertainty as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump engage in a close race for the presidency. Moreover, heightened tensions in the Middle East have added to market caution, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences if it continues retaliatory strikes.

In the broader market, China reported an 11.18% decline in gold consumption year-over-year for the first three quarters, citing high prices as a dampening factor on jewelry demand. Investors now eye the upcoming US Consumer Confidence Index and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for insight into the Fed’s rate plans and USD dynamics, likely to affect short-term gold price movements.

Technical Outlook: Gold Awaits Breakout for Bulls to Regain Control

On the technical front, a sustained move above the $2,750 resistance could trigger further buying interest, pushing gold prices past the all-time high around $2,759 and towards the four-month-old ascending trend-line resistance at $2,770–2,775. A continued rally could eventually target the psychological $2,800 level.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is approaching overbought levels, signaling potential caution for bulls. A short-term consolidation or minor pullback could provide a better entry for additional upside.

If a corrective decline occurs, support could emerge near the $2,725 level, followed by $2,715—the lower boundary of a recent trading range. A decisive break below this range might prompt technical selling, potentially leading gold prices below $2,700 and toward the $2,675 and $2,657–2,655 support areas.

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WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

WTI Struggles Below $70 Amid Demand Concerns and USD Strength

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are hovering just below the $70.00 mark during Tuesday’s Asian session, remaining in a tight range around $69.70-$69.75. The commodity has struggled to build on the previous day’s modest gains and stays near the three-week low it touched last Friday. WTI seems vulnerable to continuing its recent downtrend, which has persisted for over two weeks.

The brief positive reaction to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) interest rate cut on Monday was short-lived, as concerns about slowing demand, particularly from China, continued to weigh on oil prices. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reduced their global demand forecasts last month due to economic challenges in China, the world’s largest oil importer. IEA chief Fatih Birol further fueled these concerns, warning that China’s economic weakness could dampen global oil demand for years to come.

Adding to WTI’s challenges, the US Dollar (USD) has surged to its highest level since early August, driven by expectations of more cautious monetary easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger USD tends to weigh on oil prices by making crude more expensive for holders of other currencies.

However, the potential for further escalation in the Middle East conflict, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region, provides some support to WTI prices. This geopolitical risk cautions against overly bearish positions, despite the recent sharp drop from the nearly two-month high of $78.00 reached on October 8.

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Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold Struggles Below $3,300 as Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dim Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Gold (XAU/USD) dipped to a one-and-a-half-week low near $3,284 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are increasingly convinced that recent US tariff hikes may fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer. 

The firmer Greenback, bolstered by expectations of prolonged Fed tightening and a robust June jobs report, has dulled the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Benchmark 10-year US bond yields also climbed, adding further pressure on the precious metal. 

Market participants remain cautious amid ongoing concerns about the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff proposals. On Tuesday, the former US President threatened to impose duties of up to 50% on copper and 200% on foreign pharmaceuticals, unsettling global markets. However, gold’s traditional safe-haven demand has yet to see significant support in response. 

Traders are now eyeing the release of the FOMC meeting minutes later today, hoping for clues on the Fed’s rate path. Although a July rate cut appears off the table, markets are still pricing in up to 50 basis points of easing by year-end, likely beginning in October. 

Technically, a break below the $3,300 level, coupled with resistance at the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, signals further downside. Momentum indicators suggest gold could slide towards the next support at $3,270, with a deeper drop towards $3,248–$3,247 not ruled out. 

On the upside, recovery attempts may face initial resistance near $3,310 and stronger barriers around $3,326 and $3,340. A decisive move above $3,360 could open the door to a short-term rebound toward the $3,400 mark. 

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Gold Price Climbs Steadily

Gold Price Climbs Steadily, Eyes Record High Amid Trade War Concerns

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its intraday rally, reaching the $2,880 region during the Asian session on Monday. The gains come in response to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, reigniting fears of a global trade war and driving demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Additionally, concerns that Trump’s protectionist policies could fuel inflation further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.

Gold Supported by Trade War Fears, But Fed Policy Remains a Concern

Despite strong upside momentum, gold’s gains may face limitations due to the resilient US Dollar (USD) and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay further rate cuts. The strong US employment data released on Friday, coupled with inflationary concerns, has reinforced speculation that the Fed will maintain a cautious stance.

Overbought conditions on the daily chart could also deter traders from initiating fresh bullish positions, especially in the absence of key US economic data early in the week.

Trump’s Tariff Announcement Sparks Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, adding that his administration would match tariff rates imposed by other countries. These announcements have further fueled uncertainty and strengthened gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin stated there are no satisfactory proposals for Ukraine peace talks, dismissing Western statements as mere rhetoric. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly heading to Germany this week to outline US policy proposals.

Fed Policymakers Express Caution Amid Economic Uncertainty

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed 143K jobs were added in January, falling short of the 170K estimate but offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%. While the report provides mixed signals, it has reinforced the belief that the Fed will remain cautious regarding further monetary easing.

Several Fed officials have weighed in on economic policy:

  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated he would consider supporting further rate cuts if inflation data remains favorable and the labor market stays strong.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent US government policies create economic uncertainty, making it difficult to assess inflation trends.
  • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler acknowledged steady US economic growth but warned that progress toward the 2% inflation target remains uneven and slow.

What’s Next for Gold?

A stronger US Dollar could act as a headwind for gold prices, limiting aggressive bullish momentum. Traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony and the upcoming US consumer inflation figures for further market direction.

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Gold Price Rally Holds Strong, But Overbought Conditions Raise Caution

Gold Price Bulls Hold Firm, But Overbought Conditions Suggest Caution

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory through the Asian session on Wednesday, reaching a fresh all-time high near $2,858. Concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs continue to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. Furthermore, predictions that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would continue its easing cycle, backed by signs of deteriorating momentum in the US labor market, are fuelling demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) remains under pressure near its weekly low, with rising expectations of further Fed policy easing, offering an extra lift to gold prices. However, Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Canada and Mexico has contributed to a risk-on mentality, which may restrict future gains for XAU/USD. Furthermore, gold is entering overbought territory on the daily chart, implying a short-term consolidation or minor retreat before the advance begins. Traders are now waiting for significant U.S. data releases, such as the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI, for new market signals.

Gold Bulls Retain Control Amid US-China Trade Tensions

Despite the positive risk tone, a further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions continues to lend support to the upward momentum in gold. In response to President Trump’s latest tariffs, China has imposed targeted duties on US imports, and the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has seen gold reach an all-time high on Wednesday.

On the macroeconomic front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday revealed a decline in U.S. job openings, dropping to 7.6 million in December from a previous 8.09 million. The data signals a cooling labor market, increasing the likelihood of additional Fed rate cuts. This has kept USD bulls on the defensive and further strengthened XAU/USD.

Trump’s decision to postpone the application of a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican imports by 30 days has revived hopes that a global trade war can be avoided. However, this has done little to undermine the positive enthusiasm toward gold.

Market players will be keenly monitoring Wednesday’s U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and the ADP employment report, which may cause short-term changes in gold prices. However, Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report continues to be the main focus. Furthermore, any fresh information about trade tariffs is probably going to cause financial markets to become more volatile.

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WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

WTI Crude Oil Struggles Near $72.00, 100-Day SMA Holds as Key Support

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fell from a one-week high on Tuesday, attracting sellers for the second straight session. The commodity trades at $72.00, barely above last week’s one-month low and close to the important 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. 

US Tariff Delay Weighs on Oil Prices

US President Donald Trump has announced a one-month suspension on newly imposed tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, easing worries about potential supply disruptions from two of the country’s main oil suppliers. This development put downward pressure on crude oil prices. Furthermore, fears of lower gasoline demand—driven by the larger economic impact of Trump’s trade policies—are contributing to gloomy sentiment in the oil market.

OPEC+ Stands Firm on Production Policy

Despite Trump’s calls for higher output to combat rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have chosen to keep current production levels. This decision may give some support for crude oil prices, avoiding further losses in the near term.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Traders will closely monitor the 100-day SMA, currently positioned near the $71.00 mark, which serves as a crucial support level. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger an extended pullback from the recent multi-month highs. Conversely, a bounce from this level may reinforce buying interest and help WTI recover from its recent slump.

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Gold Holds Below $2,800 Despite Intraday Recovery

Gold Price Trims Intraday Losses but Remains Below $2,800 Amid Stronger USD

The gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some of its losses following the strong Asian session sell-off but remains in negative territory, hovering around $2,785, down about 0.60% for the day. The recent rise in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, has pushed the greenback closer to a two-year high, weighing on gold and dragging it away from its all-time high of $2,817, hit on Friday.

However, projections that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower interest rates twice by the end of 2025, combined with indications about probable economic disruptions from Trump’s trade policies, contribute to gold’s safe-haven appeal. The current risk-off mentality further shields the downside, so bearish traders should exercise caution ahead of this week’s key US macroeconomic data, which begins with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

Technical Outlook: Gold’s Uptrend Intact Despite Intraday Pullback

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline found support near the $2,772 resistance-turned-support level, which now serves as a pivotal point. A decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, exposing gold to the next key support levels:

 

  • $2,755 – Initial downside target
  • $2,740 – Intermediate support
  • $2,725-$2,720 – Strong demand zone
  • $2,700 – Psychological level, a break below which could accelerate losses

Conversely, immediate resistance is seen in the $2,790-$2,800 region, followed by the record high of $2,817. Notably, momentum indicators on the daily chart remain comfortably positive, indicating that gold has not yet reached overbought levels. This provides room for additional upward momentum, confirming the broader bullish trend that began with the December swing bottom.

If gold manages to sustain a move above $2,817, it could pave the way for fresh record highs, with bulls eyeing further gains amid ongoing market uncertainty.

Market Drivers to Watch

US Dollar Strength: The impact of Trump’s tariffs on global trade could continue supporting the USD, potentially weighing on gold.

Federal Reserve Policy: Expectations of rate cuts in 2025 remain a crucial factor for gold’s long-term trajectory.

US Economic Data: The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week could trigger volatility in gold prices.

Risk Sentiment: Any escalation in geopolitical or economic tensions could further boost gold’s safe-haven demand.

Overall, while gold has retreated from its highs, the larger bullish trend remains intact, with technical signals suggesting further upward movement as long as critical support levels hold.

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WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

WTI Slips to $71.00 Amid Trade Tariff Concerns and Weak China Data

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edge lower during Wednesday’s Asian session, erasing part of the previous day’s modest recovery from a nearly three-week low. The commodity trades near $71.00, down over 0.25% for the day, and remains vulnerable to further losses amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

Investor concerns persist over US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose trade tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico by February 1, which could weigh on global fuel demand. Additionally, weak Chinese economic data adds to downward pressure. Official PMIs released on Monday highlighted continued weakness in the world’s second-largest economy and top crude importer, raising concerns over lower consumption.

Further pressure on oil prices comes from Trump’s energy policies, which include plans to ramp up US energy production and calls for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output to drive prices lower.

With bearish fundamentals dominating, WTI remains susceptible to further downside risks in the near term.

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WTI Drops Toward

WTI Drops Toward $74.00 as Trump Pressures OPEC to Lower Oil Prices

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades near $74.10 on Friday, continuing its downward trend after US President Donald Trump urged Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices.

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs and energy policies adds to the pressure on WTI. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump announced plans to request Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, saying, “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.”

Expectations of increased US production under Trump’s administration further weigh on oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump declared a national energy emergency, leveraging his authority to expedite the approval of oil, gas, and electricity projects that would typically require years of permitting.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 1.017 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending January 17, following a 1.962 million-barrel decline in the prior week. Market expectations had forecast a larger decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil traders will closely monitor developments surrounding Trump’s energy policies and tariff announcements. Additionally, attention will shift to the preliminary US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, set for release later on Friday. A weaker-than-expected reading could pressure the US Dollar (USD), potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated WTI price.

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GBP/USD Consolidates Around

GBP/USD Consolidates Around Mid-1.3000s, Vulnerable Amid Strong USD

GBP/USD Consolidates Around Mid-1.3000s, Vulnerable Amid Strong USD

The GBP/USD pair struggles to maintain modest recovery gains from the past two days, trading within a narrow range around 1.3050-1.3045 during Monday’s Asian session. Spot prices remain close to last Thursday’s one-month low, signaling potential vulnerability for continued declines from the 1.3435 area, which marked the highest level since March 2022.

The recent drop in the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) to its lowest point since April 2021, below the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target, has fueled expectations of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut in the BoE’s upcoming November 7 meeting. Additionally, money markets are pricing in the possibility of another rate cut in December, which could further weigh on the British Pound (GBP). Combined with ongoing bullish sentiment for the US Dollar (USD), this supports a negative outlook for GBP/USD.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, starts the week on a positive note, stalling its recent pullback from last week’s highest level since early August. Market confidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement modest rate cuts next year keeps US Treasury yields elevated, providing additional support for the dollar. Geopolitical risks also add to the USD’s safe-haven appeal.

With no significant economic data releases from the UK or US, the current fundamental backdrop suggests that GBP/USD’s downside risk remains the dominant trend. Any intraday upticks may be viewed as selling opportunities. However, bearish traders might wait for the pair to break below the 1.3000 psychological level before placing new bets, targeting support near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around the 1.2960 region.

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EUR/USD Extends Losses Following ECB Rate Cut Decision

EUR/USD Extends Losses After ECB Rate Cut

EUR/USD Extends Losses After ECB Rate Cut

The EUR/USD pair continues to decline following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. With a lack of bullish momentum, the pair is now down more than 3.5% from late September’s peak above 1.1200, as it extends near-term losses.

The ECB’s rate cut, which was in line with market expectations, lowered the Deposit Facility Rate to 3.25% and the Main Refinancing Operations Rate to 3.4%. Adding further pressure on the Euro, Europe’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the year ending in September dropped more than anticipated, coming in at 1.7% YoY compared to the forecasted 1.8%.

The upcoming EU Leadership Summit on Friday is the last key event on the EU economic calendar. However, it is unlikely to instill confidence in the Euro, as European policymakers continue to face a challenging economic environment, with fears of a deeper slowdown despite reassurances to the contrary.

In contrast, US economic data continues to outperform. September’s Retail Sales grew by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding forecasts of 0.3% and rebounding from August’s 0.1% rise. Excluding automotive sales, Retail Sales increased by 0.5%, beating expectations of 0.1%. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 11 came in at 241K, lower than the expected 260K, further supporting the US Dollar.

EUR/USD Price Outlook

The EUR/USD is under considerable bearish pressure, having dropped below both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0996 and the 200-day EMA at 1.0904, indicating a clear shift in market sentiment. The pair is currently trading near 1.0828, approaching multi-week lows as downside momentum builds. A break below the 1.0800 support level could trigger further declines, with the next key support at 1.0750.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains deep in negative territory, showing no signs of reversal. The MACD and signal lines continue to diverge, and the expanding negative histogram points to accelerating bearish momentum. Should the pair fail to hold the 1.0800 level, further losses toward 1.0750 and potentially 1.0700 could follow. Conversely, a recovery above 1.0900, aligning with the 200-day EMA, is needed to reduce bearish pressure and offer some relief to bulls.

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EUR/USD Hits 10-Week Low Ahead of ECB Policy Announcement

EUR/USD Hits 10-Week Low Ahead of ECB Policy Announcement

EUR/USD Hits 10-Week Low Ahead of ECB Policy Announcement

EUR/USD continues to show weakness, trading near 1.0850 on Thursday as the currency pair faces significant selling pressure ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, expected at 12:15 GMT.

According to a Tuesday note from Citi, traders anticipate the ECB will reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by a total of 49 basis points (bps) across its remaining two meetings this year. This implies two 25 bps cuts, one on Thursday and another in December.

A quarter-point rate cut on Thursday would mark the second consecutive reduction, lowering the deposit rate to 3.25%. A dovish decision is widely expected, as the Eurozone faces an economic slowdown and inflationary pressures seem under control.

With strong expectations for another rate cut, investors will closely analyze the ECB’s monetary policy statement and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference for further insights into possible December actions.

Lagarde is expected to focus on strategies to revive economic growth. The Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell to 1.7% in September, below both expectations and the preliminary estimate of 1.8%, according to revised figures. Additionally, Germany’s latest economic projections suggest the country will end the year with a 0.2% contraction in output.

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EUR/USD stays below 1.0900; further decline

EUR/USD stays below 1.0900; further decline likely as ECB decision approaches

EUR/USD stays below 1.0900; further decline likely as ECB decision approaches

EUR/USD remains under pressure, trading near 1.0890 during the Asian session on Wednesday after a four-day losing streak. The Euro could face additional downside as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point cut in both the Main Refinancing Rate and the Deposit Facility Rate during Thursday’s policy meeting.

Ahead of the ECB decision, traders will closely monitor the Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data, which is set to be released on Thursday. This data could provide critical signals about inflationary trends in the region.

Key events following the ECB meeting will include the release of the Monetary Policy Statement and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference, where insights into the ECB’s future policy direction are expected.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against six major currencies, continues to hover near a two-month high of 103.35, reached on Monday. Strong jobs and inflation data from the US have dampened expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024.

Current market projections suggest a total of 125 basis points in Fed rate cuts over the next year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 94.1% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in November, with no significant likelihood of a larger 50-basis-point move.

On Tuesday, Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, noted that he expects just one more rate cut of 25 basis points this year, reflecting his projections from last month’s Fed meeting. “The median forecast indicated 50 basis points in cuts, in addition to the 50 basis points already delivered in September,” according to Reuters.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0900 Amid Strong USD

EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0900, Lowest Since August 8, as USD Strengthens

EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0900, Lowest Since August 8, as USD Strengthens

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward slide for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, dipping to the 1.0890 region in the last hour, inching closer to its lowest point since August 8, touched the previous day. However, bearish traders remain cautious, waiting for a decisive break below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before making fresh moves ahead of significant central bank developments.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its policy decision on Thursday, with expectations of a third rate cut in this easing cycle due to growing concerns over sluggish economic growth. Additionally, Eurozone inflation has dropped below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since 2021, further supporting the case for policy easing. This weakens the euro, while a stronger US Dollar (USD) further weighs on the EUR/USD pair.

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, remains strong near a two-month high amid rising expectations of a less aggressive rate-cutting approach by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Markets have now ruled out the likelihood of another large Fed rate cut in November, keeping US Treasury yields elevated. Geopolitical risks also add to the safe-haven appeal of the USD, potentially fueling further downside pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Market participants now focus on Tuesday’s key data releases, including the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and Eurozone Industrial Production figures. Later in the North American session, the Empire State Manufacturing Index and speeches from key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will influence USD demand, offering short-term direction for the EUR/USD pair.

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EUR/USD Dips Below 1.0950 Amid Stronger US Dollar

EUR/USD Dips Below 1.0950 Amid Stronger US Dollar

EUR/USD Dips Below 1.0950 Amid Stronger US Dollar

The EUR/USD pair continued its decline, dropping to around 1.0920 during early trading in Asia on Monday. This downward movement is driven by risk aversion, fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising conflicts between China and Taiwan, which are pressuring riskier currencies like the Euro (EUR).

On Monday, a spokesperson from the US Department of State expressed “serious concern” over the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military drills in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan. They noted that the US will closely monitor these activities and collaborate with allies regarding shared concerns. Any further escalation could increase demand for safe-haven assets like the US Dollar (USD), adding pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, traders are anticipating a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November, following the release of Friday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows an 86.8% likelihood of this rate cut, up from 83.3% before the PPI report.

In Europe, the Euro is also under pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to implement further rate cuts in the remaining monetary policy meetings this year. The ECB’s dovish approach is driven by faster-than-expected declines in Eurozone inflation and a fragile economic recovery.

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EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0950 Ahead of Key German Inflation Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0950 Ahead of Key German Inflation Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0950 Ahead of Key German Inflation Data

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade defensively around 1.0935 during early European hours on Friday. A stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation reading on Thursday has bolstered the U.S. dollar, limiting the pair’s ability to move higher.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in hotter than anticipated, along with a robust September jobs report. This combination strengthens the view that any future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be gradual. Following the CPI release, the CME FedWatch Tool showed an 83.3% probability that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for September and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October, both due on Friday. The headline PPI is forecast to rise by 1.6% year-over-year (YoY) for September, while core PPI is expected to increase by 2.7%. If the PPI data comes in softer than expected, the U.S. dollar could weaken against the euro.

In Europe, expectations are building that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates to address the region’s economic slowdown, which may weigh further on the euro. The ECB is expected to lower its key rates twice this year, with a 3.5% deposit rate cut anticipated next week. According to a Reuters poll, over 90% of economists expect a rate cut next week, with another likely to follow in December.

Additionally, Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data, expected to remain steady at 1.8% YoY for September, will be released later on Friday.

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China’s Yuan Softens Versus Dollar Amid Growing Yield Gap

China’s Yuan Softens Versus Dollar Amid Growing Yield Gap

The Chinese yuan weakened against the U.S. dollar, influenced by an increasing yield differential and diverging monetary policies from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), posing challenges for the currency. Since December 27, the spread between yields on China’s 10-year government bonds and U.S. equivalents has grown by 24 basis points to 144 basis points. Market adjustments reflect anticipation of the Fed’s less aggressive policy stance and the likelihood of rate cuts by the PBOC.

On the same day, yields on China’s 10-year government bonds dipped to their lowest since April 2020, reflecting the impact of policy differences on the yuan, particularly in offshore markets. The PBOC’s balance sheet actions, including expectations of reduced interest rates and loan enhancements via the pledged supplementary lending program, are seen as efforts to provide relief, particularly to the property sector. This is evident from the PBOC’s 350 billion yuan injection into policy banks in December to bolster the housing market.

Traders have noted unusually high U.S. dollar reserves held by onshore exporters, which are anticipated to be converted into yuan as the Lunar New Year approaches, potentially strengthening the yuan against the dollar towards late January or early February.

The PBOC set the yuan’s daily reference rate at 7.1029 per dollar, slightly weaker than the previous day’s fix of 7.0997. The spot yuan rate opened at 7.1675 per dollar and stood at 7.1684 midday, marking a slight depreciation from the last session’s close. Meanwhile, the global dollar index edged up slightly to 102.457 from 102.422.

The currency markets are also eyeing the upcoming U.S. payroll data, which is expected to provide further insight into the Fed’s future policy decisions and could influence the yuan-dollar exchange rate. The offshore yuan was observed trading at a weaker level compared to the onshore rate, at 7.1783 per dollar.

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Australian Dollar Steadies Above

Australian Dollar Steadies Above Key Mark Before US PMI, FOMC Minutes

Australian Dollar Steadies Above Key Mark Before US PMI, FOMC Minutes

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is navigating choppy waters, managing to hold above the crucial 0.6750 threshold against the US Dollar (USD). The AUD, tied closely to commodity markets, is under pressure from a global growth slowdown at 2024’s end, nudging investors towards the USD. Despite this, speculation over imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts has been tempered, with unexpected upbeat manufacturing data from China offering some support to the AUD.

Amidst this backdrop, Australia’s own economic indicators are closely watched, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) emphasizing the importance of data review in rate-setting deliberations. A recent dip in the Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI suggests an easing in economic activity, and upcoming Composite and Services PMI figures are expected to reflect similar trends, potentially signaling sectoral shrinkage.

Despite these challenges, the AUD’s footing might remain firm, underpinned by persistent domestic inflation and a buoyant housing market. Expectations are tilting towards the RBA holding back on policy tightening at its February session, which could lend support to the currency.

Revelations from RBA’s internal documents suggest that rising interest rates have begun to weigh on Australian households and businesses, evidenced by a downturn in domestic tourism and a consumer shift towards more budget-friendly goods to mitigate living costs. Yet, a silver lining appears in the form of stable private sector wage growth, hovering around 4%, offering a glimpse into the country’s economic condition.

In a move to ease the cost-of-living strain without stoking inflation, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has tasked the Treasury and Finance departments to seek viable relief strategies for families.

Geopolitical undercurrents also play a role, with China’s framing of the January 13 elections in Taiwan as a pivotal decision with far-reaching implications, adding to regional tensions that could influence the AUD/USD dynamic.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s trajectory is upward, bolstered by higher Treasury yields, despite a S&P Global Manufacturing PMI that fell short of forecasts. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming US data, including the December ISM Manufacturing PMI and the FOMC Minutes.

These minutes, released in the wake of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hints at possible rate reductions, are anticipated to provide further insight into the Fed’s monetary stance, potentially impacting the AUD and broader currency markets.

 

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Iran and Russia to Conduct Trade Using Own Currencies, Bypassing US Dollar – Reports by State Media

Iran and Russia to Conduct Trade Using Own Currencies, Bypassing US Dollar – Reports by State Media

Iran and Russia have reached a significant milestone in their economic partnership by agreeing to conduct trade transactions using their respective local currencies, thereby sidelining the US dollar. This strategic move, confirmed by Iranian state media, was solidified during discussions held by the central bank chiefs of both nations in Russia.

The shift to local currencies comes as both countries face stringent US sanctions, prompting them to seek alternative financial mechanisms for their trading operations. By establishing a system that operates outside of the conventional SWIFT interbank network, they have created a pathway to facilitate trade without reliance on the US dollar.

The timing of this agreement aligns with the strengthening of ties within the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which recently incorporated Iran into its fold through a comprehensive free trade agreement signed on December 25. This inclusion into the EEU is a strategic gain for Iran, broadening its economic horizons and reinforcing its trade potential within the region.

For Russia, Iran’s partnership has grown increasingly vital following the imposition of Western sanctions due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. These sanctions have heavily restricted Russia’s access to traditional foreign trade markets, particularly in Europe, propelling it to seek and develop alternative trade routes and partners.

The deepening of Iran-Russia relations is not confined to economic aspects alone but extends into military cooperation. In November, Iran announced the finalization of deals with Russia that would enhance its military capabilities, including the acquisition of advanced Su-35 fighter jets, Mi-28 attack helicopters, and training for pilots on the Yak-130 aircraft. This move signifies a mutual interest in not only bolstering their economies but also in strengthening strategic and defense collaborations in the face of geopolitical pressures.

This realignment of trade and military alliances by Iran and Russia represents a significant pivot away from Western-dominated financial systems and defense dependencies. By forging their own paths and utilizing local currencies for trade, both countries are sending a clear signal of their intent to operate independently of the influence exerted by the US dollar and to resist the limitations imposed by sanctions.

 

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Japanese Yen Nears Multi-Month

Japanese Yen Reaches New Daily High Versus USD, BoJ Stance May Limit Rise

Japanese Yen Reaches New Daily High Versus USD, BoJ Stance May Limit Rise

On Wednesday, the Japanese Yen (JPY) exhibited a notable upswing, securing a new daily zenith against the US Dollar (USD), in a modest comeback from its substantial depreciation observed in the preceding three days. During the early European trading hours, the USD/JPY currency pair was seen dipping to a daily low, hovering around the 143.30 mark. Despite this upward movement, the sentiment among Yen bulls remains cautious. This tentativeness stems from the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) recent reaffirmation of its commitment to maintain expansive monetary policy settings. In its latest policy meeting on Tuesday, the BoJ held firm on its existing stance, maintaining its accommodative policy guidance and thereby moderating some investor anticipation of a potential pivot towards less negative interest rates.

This week also brought to light a decline in Japan’s trade activity, with imports and exports falling more significantly than anticipated in November. The decrease in trade volumes, coupled with a generally optimistic atmosphere in global equity markets, has somewhat diminished the Yen’s allure as a safe-haven asset. Conversely, the US Dollar found some support, buoyed by the market’s speculation about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate trajectory. The uncertainty surrounding when and how the Fed might commence scaling back its interest rates has provided some backing to the USD/JPY pair.

Traders, for now, seem to be holding back from making bold directional moves with the Yen, opting for a more measured approach as they await an important inflation update from the United States. The upcoming release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is highly anticipated this Friday. The outcomes of this report are expected to significantly influence the Fed’s future policy decisions, which, in turn, will have implications for USD demand and potentially inject new momentum into the USD/JPY exchange dynamics.

In the interim, several economic indicators and events are poised to sway short-term trading strategies. These include the release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index and data on Existing Home Sales. Moreover, market participants are likely to pay close attention to Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s remarks, seeking insights that could offer trading cues during the North American market session on Wednesday.

The confluence of these domestic and international economic developments will continue to shape the narrative around the USD/JPY pair, as investors and traders calibrate their positions in response to evolving monetary policy expectations and the broader economic outlook.

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China's Yuan Softens Versus Dollar Amid Growing Yield Gap

China’s Central Bank Restarts 14-Day Reverse Repos to Ease Year-End Liquidity

China’s Central Bank Restarts 14-Day Reverse Repos to Ease Year-End Liquidity

After a three-month hiatus, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has recommenced its practice of injecting short-term cash into the financial system via 14-day reverse repurchase agreements (reverse repos). This move, enacted on Monday, is part of a broader strategy to manage the surging liquidity requirements typically seen as the year draws to a close.

Reverse repos are financial instruments used by central banks to control the money supply. By selling securities with the agreement to repurchase them at a later date, central banks can temporarily decrease the amount of money circulating in the economy. The PBOC’s latest round of injections funneled a substantial 244 billion yuan (equivalent to approximately $34.28 billion) into the market through these operations. This capital injection was divided into two segments: a majority of 184 billion yuan was allocated to the seven-day tenor—standard short-term loans—and the remaining 60 billion yuan was directed towards the 14-day tenor.

This recent allocation marks the first instance since late September that the 14-day reverse repo contracts have been employed by the PBOC. These longer tenor agreements are indicative of the central bank’s intent to provide a more sustained source of funds, ensuring that financial institutions have adequate cash for a longer period.

The PBOC’s actions reflect its commitment to maintaining a stable financial environment, a necessity for economic growth and stability. The bank’s official statement on Monday underscored this objective, indicating that the operation was specifically designed to preserve “reasonably ample” liquidity conditions as the year-end approaches. Maintaining such liquidity is crucial for the smooth operation of financial markets, as it enables banks to fulfill withdrawal requests, grant loans, and support economic activity without undue stress.

In broader economic terms, these measures are closely watched by market participants as they often signal the central bank’s monetary policy stance and outlook on the economy. The PBOC’s decision to resume 14-day reverse repos could thus be interpreted as a proactive step to pre-empt potential cash shortages, stabilize money market rates, and guide market expectations during periods of seasonal cash demand.

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UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Near Two-Year Peak

UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Near Two-Year Peak

In the closing month of the year, the UK’s consumer confidence has shown a slight uptick, indicating a modest shift in public sentiment despite ongoing economic challenges. In December, analysis from market research firm GfK Ltd. identified a rise in consumer sentiment, marking the highest point since the beginning of the year, although the mood among UK households remains cautious.

The GfK’s sentiment indicator, which increased by two points to minus 22, suggests that while consumers are still grappling with uncertainty, there is a nascent optimism brewing about the economy’s direction as we head into 2024. This increment is the most significant since January of the previous year, signaling that consumers are starting to see a silver lining despite the overarching pessimism reflected in the negative reading. 

This budding optimism encompasses several aspects of the GfK’s survey, which captures feelings towards personal finances, general economic conditions, major purchase intentions, and saving behavior. The data suggests that even amid the current cost-of-living crisis, which continues to exert pressure on the majority of households, there’s a gradual but steady shift toward a more positive outlook on personal financial prospects for the forthcoming year.

Further affirming this shift in consumer confidence is data from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC), which points to a sustained high number of job vacancies within the UK economy. The REC’s metrics showed a 7.7% increase in job postings, totaling 1.44 million in the week starting November 27. This figure is slightly lower by 8.6% compared to the same period in the previous year, yet it underscores a resilient job market. 

The week in question saw the advertisement of 186,329 new job positions, only a 2.6% drop year-on-year, with certain sectors such as physiotherapy, midwifery, and occupational therapy witnessing notable surges in job adverts. Interestingly, no region in the UK experienced a reduction in job advertisements from the preceding week, which suggests a broad-based demand for labor across the country.

The resilience of the job market can be attributed to the ongoing labor shortages and the skills gap that the UK is experiencing. According to REC’s Chief Executive Neil Carberry, the slower economy has not led to a significant reduction in hiring as might be expected in a typical economic downturn. Instead, sectors such as hospitality, engineering, healthcare, and social care continue to face hiring challenges, further complicated by the scarcity of labor and specific skill sets.

This situation presents both an obstacle and an opportunity. The difficulty in filling roles across various sectors could potentially lead to wage growth as employers strive to attract scarce talent. This, in turn, could influence consumer spending and sentiment positively. As the UK navigates the uncertain terrain of post-pandemic recovery, the interplay between job market dynamics and consumer confidence will be critical to watch, with implications for economic policy and business strategies in the coming year.

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Japan Approves Tax Reductions to Aid Families, Combat Deflation

Japan Approves Tax Reductions to Aid Families, Combat Deflation

In Japan, the government’s tax reform committee, part of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, has reached a consensus on reducing income tax rates. This move is designed to alleviate the financial strain on households amidst the rising costs of living, signaling a shift from the longstanding deflationary period that has characterized the Japanese economy.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, confronting dwindling public approval due to inflation, stagnant wages, and political fundraising controversies, has chosen to emphasize these tax cuts as a cornerstone of his administration’s growth-centric policies.

In a strategic pivot, the tax reform committee has set an upper limit on the annual income eligible for these tax reductions, targeting relief efforts towards middle and lower-income brackets and addressing the widening economic disparity.

The proposal includes deferring an increase in taxes originally intended to augment defense spending in the subsequent fiscal year. This delay reflects the government’s prioritization of economic support for citizens over military expenditure amid current fiscal considerations.

Further, the committee has decided not to proceed with a planned reduction in the cap on mortgage borrowing for the upcoming year, providing continued access to housing loans for families.

In an effort to stimulate economic expansion through private consumption, the government is also extending tax incentives to businesses that increase employee wages. This policy is extended to small businesses in deficit, allowing them to benefit from preferential tax treatment for a duration of five years.

The tax panel is introducing a novel tax scheme to encourage domestic investment, particularly in companies that produce essential materials for decarbonization and economic security. This initiative will offer tax incentives for ten years, aiming to boost sectors such as electric vehicles and advanced technology components, which are crucial for Japan’s strategic economic initiatives.

These tax incentives are part of a broader government strategy to foster a conducive environment for substantial investments in key industries, particularly those aligned with Japan’s green transformation goals.

The details of these tax reforms are to be incorporated into the fiscal 2024 tax reform framework, which was finalized on Thursday. This framework is anticipated to lay the groundwork for a resilient and forward-looking Japanese economy.

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US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

US Yields Boost Dollar, Weaken Yen

The dollar strengthened on Tuesday, driven by rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, which fell to its lowest level since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields increased nearly 14 basis points to 4.479% overnight. Analysts attributed this rise to expectations of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency, which could lead to higher tariffs and increased government borrowing.

As the dollar gained, the euro reversed part of a small rally following the first round of France’s election, which aligned with polling predictions. The euro last traded at $1.0735.

The yen dropped to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years, primarily due to the significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Tuesday, the yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia and was under pressure from yen bears wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen also hit a lifetime low of 173.67 against the euro on Monday and remained near that level on Tuesday.

In the bond market, the 10-year yield gap between U.S. and Japanese rates stood at 340 basis points, and nearly 440 basis points at the two-year tenor. China’s yuan, which reached a seven-month low against the dollar last week, faced similar pressure, with U.S. 10-year yields more than 220 basis points higher than Chinese government bond yields.

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank about borrowing bonds, likely to sell them and stabilize falling yields, provided only a brief boost to the currency on Monday. The yuan last traded at 7.3043 in offshore markets on Tuesday, close to its June low.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and was testing support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6075. The British pound remained steady at $1.2641. The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650, with traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. Swaps market pricing suggests a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon as next month.

The question remains about the trigger for such a move. ING economist Rob Carnell noted that discussions have taken place, but the specific trigger for a hike is still uncertain. There is a leaning towards forecasting a hike at the August meeting.

Overall, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. yields continue to exert pressure on low-yielding currencies, with markets closely watching upcoming central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

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Cryptocurrency Move Back to Support the Pack to Level

If we have a look at the bearish start to the day in the majors and the Bitcoin move back to the level by $18,500 to the support pack. The Bitcoin to USD was seemed down at the level by 1.16% on this Thursday that reversing a 1.25% gain to the Wednesday to the ended the day at the level $18,260.0. At the start of the day, the Bitcoin rose to the early morning intraday to the high at the level before hitting the reverse level.

The major resistance level goes at the level by $18,878 and the Bitcoin fell to the intraday low to the level by $17,935.0.

The close term bullish pattern stayed flawless, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$18,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would have to slide through the 62% FIB of $10,095 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

The Bitcoin was somewhere near at the level by 1.03% to $18,072.0. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin ascend to an early morning high of $18,299.0 prior to tumbling to a low of $18,070.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go.

Somewhere else, it was a bearish beginning to the day for the majors. The Ripple’s XRP was somewhere around at the level 2.69% to lead the route down.

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Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

Bitcoin Slips Down Below at Level $13,000 Since the Last Rally

The Bitcoin seems to the low at the level of $9,813 in September that managed the bitcoin to reach at the level high at $13,868. The bitcoin price is rejected to the sequential indicators on the 3-day chart.

If we have a look at the current candlestick of the 3-day chart it will seem significantly bearish and the TD sequential indicators are presented a sell signal. The 50- SMA seems down at the level of $10,600 and the 100 SMA at the level of $9,47.

The In/Out of the Money Around Price chart shows the closest and most grounded help region to be somewhere in the range of the level at $12,687 and $13,073 with near 624,000 BTC in volume. A break below this point can drive the cost of Bitcoin down to $11,914.

Despite the fact that bears appear to have assumed responsibility for the present moment, the powerful day by day upswing stays unblemished for Bitcoin. The 50-SMA and the 100-SMA harmonize around $11,200 which will go about as a critical help level. The MACD keeps bullish and the most basic obstruction level is still at $13,863. A breakout over this point can without much of a range drive the lead digital currency towards the untouched high at the level of $20,000.

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Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price Clear the Path and Rose to the Level $13,000

Bitcoin Price of the bulls has been the full control of the market to the price at the level of $11,340 to $12,835. The cryptocurrency had the largest to the single day that put the gain. The MACD shows the increasing the bullish momentum to price the growth anticipated.

The position detector is a convenient little apparatus that causes us to imagine solid opposition and backing levels. According to the everyday conjunction detector, there is an absence of solid obstruction levels on the potential gain. This should be empowering news for the buyers as they plan to bring BTC into the $13,000-zone.

Santiment’s holder’s distribution charts show you the number of addresses having a place with a specific symbolic section. According to the chart, the number of addresses holding 10,000-100,000 tokens tumbled from 111 on October 8 to 104 on October 20. This is an intensely bearish sign as it shows that the whales are selling off their property.

Bitcoin buyers have the opportunity to bring the cost into the level at $13,000 and even the $14,000 interference. The everyday intersection finder shows a total absence of solid opposition barriers straightforward.

For the bears, the drawback is covered off at the $12,000-$12,100 uphold divider. A break below that zone will bring the value down to $11,000, which has both the 50-day and 100-day SMA

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Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

Cryptos Market: Bitcoin Shows Bullish Momentum Over Dollar Strength

The BTC/USD traded at the level of $11,355 after the mild rejection of the top-level $11,720 that losing some of the bullish.

Ethereum USD had a similar fate at the higher risk that seeing the longer pullback than the Bitcoin. If we talk about the XRP/USD is the clear loser after breaking below the 50 SMA and the 100 SMA on the daily chart that currently trading at the level of $0.2482 after yet facing another rejection.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, fell by 1.02% on Tuesday. Incompletely turning around a 1.55% increase from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at the level of $11,442.0.

It was a quiet beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to a late morning intraday high to the level of $11,574.9 before operating reverse.

Missing the mark concerning the primary significant obstruction level at $11,830, Bitcoin tumbled to an early evening intraday low of $11,333.0.

Avoiding the primary significant help level at $11,201 Bitcoin quickly returned to $11,470 levels before moving back.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent move back through to $11,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to shape a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin was up by 0.22% to $11,467.0. A beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low of $11,427.0 before ascending to a high at the level of $11,467.0. Bitcoin left the support and Resistance levels untested at an early stage.

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Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Ethereum Rate Hits at Higher Level More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

Let’s have a look at the cryptocurrency that hovering near to the level at $10,600 mark. The Bitcoin price is consolidating to the 50-12 Hour SMA and the 200-12 Hours SMA. The strong resistance lies at the level 50-12 SMA that repeatedly rejected the price.

This repeated dismissal may drop the value down to the level at  $10,400 uphold level, which is by all accounts the main observable help level on the drawback. If case this level doesn’t hold firm, at that point you can anticipate that the cost should plunge below $10,000. For this situation, one can anticipate that BTC should tumble to the level of $9,700 before it experiences another solid help.

While this may not appear to be a huge number, remember that every one of these addresses holds a great many dollars worth of Bitcoin. The fishes using the stale value activity to merge their positions look good for the general market.

With respect to the top 50 digital forms of money, the greatest failures incorporate Compound, down 12% over the most recent 24 hours, UMA down 12%, OMG Network down at the level 13%, Yearn.finance down 16%, and Aave down 18%. The main bull among the sloths of bears is EOS, which broke out greatly as covered Tuesday.

Ethereum has since September 23, been holding inside a rising equal channel. Recuperation towards $400 flamed out marginally above $360 a week ago. On the drawback, the misfortunes that followed grasped uphold at the level of $335 throughout the end of the week, permitting the shrewd agreement sign to revitalize, making strides above $350.

The Ethereum selling pressure in the market halted the increase at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA. Ether fell below the climbing channel, confirming a bear banner.

The downside of a significant help zone shows that Ethereum is at grave risk of spiraling to the level at $300. Other than the various simple help zones, the most significant one lies somewhere in the range of $298 and $309. Previously, around 879,000 locations purchased almost 2 million ETH.

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Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows the Bullish Divergence on User Count

The Bitcoin moves back and shows the bearish to the start of the day with the support level at $10,900 to the broader market.

The Bitcoin BTC to USD is rose by the level at 1.33% this Tuesday and reversing the loss at the level of 0.83% on Monday.

It was a mixed start to the day. Bitcoin fell to an early morning low $10,674.2 before finding support.

Steering clear of the major support levels, Bitcoin struck a late morning high at the level of $10,815.4 before operating reverse.

Coming up short of the major resistance levels, Bitcoin slid to a late afternoon intraday low $10,654.0.

Steering clear of the first major support level at $10,585, Bitcoin rallied to a final hour intraday high at the level of $10,889.0.

Falling short of the first major resistance level at $10,915, Bitcoin eased back to end the day at sub-$10,860 levels.

The near-term bullish trend remained whole, in contempt of the latest pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to form a near-term bearish trend. At the hour of composing, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.28% to the level of $10,826.0. It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin rose to an early morning high $10,866.0 before tumbling to a low $10,826.0.

Bitcoin started the significant help and obstruction levels untested from the get-go. Somewhere else, it was a blended beginning to the day.

Bitcoin Cash ABC (+0.54%), Bitcoin Cash SV to the level (+0.62%), and Crypto.com Coin (+0.65%) evaded the pattern right off the bat.

It was a bearish beginning to the day for the remainder of the majors, in any case. Binance Coin was somewhere around 1.18% to lead the way down.

https://xtreamforex.com/nasdaq-futures-shows-the-short/

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