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EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens

EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens; FOMC Minutes in Spotlight

The EUR/USD pair slid to around 1.1705 during Wednesday’s Asian session, weighed down by renewed strength in the US Dollar. The Euro came under pressure following fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump, which unsettled global markets and added to investor caution. 

Trump reignited global trade concerns by proposing a 50% tariff on copper imports and hinted at possible duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. While he mentioned that negotiations with both the European Union and China are progressing well, he also warned that a tariff notice to the EU could be issued within days. This uncertainty has dented risk sentiment, putting the Euro under additional stress. 

Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, due later today. Market participants are hoping for more clarity on the Fed’s rate path, especially amid growing expectations of monetary easing. 

At its June meeting, the Fed held interest rates steady, maintaining the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%—a level unchanged since December. However, markets are now pricing in a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end, potentially beginning as early as October. 

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Australian Dollar Gains as Risk Sentiment Improves, RBA Decision in Focus

Australian Dollar Rises Amid Risk-On Sentiment, Focus Shifts to RBA Rate Decision

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its third straight session of gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following US President Donald Trump’s move to postpone the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. A weaker USD following disappointing US retail sales data has further supported the AUD/USD pair, reigniting speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates later this year despite persistent inflation concerns.

Yet, the AUD’s gains could be capped before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy announcement on Tuesday, as mounting speculation of a cut in interest rates deters sentiment. The RBA is widely expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10%, marking the first rate reduction in four years.

US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Lower Treasury Yields

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down for the third consecutive session, bogged down by weaker US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the DXY is trading around 106.70, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields at 4.26% and 4.47%, respectively.

Statistics released by the US Census Bureau on Friday indicated that US Retail Sales decreased 0.9% in January, a reversal from a revised 0.7% rise in December (earlier reported as 0.4%). The decrease was deeper than the market expectation of a 0.1% decline.

Conversely, Core PPI inflation in the US increased to 3.6% YoY in January, above expectations of 3.3%, though marginally less than the revised 3.7% (initially published as 3.5%). This has consolidated expectations that the Fed will push rate cuts until the second part of the year.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% YoY in January, beating expectations of 2.9%, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) went up to 3.3% from 3.2%, beating expectations of 3.1%. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose 0.5% in January compared to 0.4% in December, with core CPI rising to 0.4% from 0.2% in the same period.

Fed Officials Signal a Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts

In his semi-annual report to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that policymakers “do not need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates, citing a strong labor market and robust economic growth. Powell also warned that Trump’s tariff policies could exert upward pressure on inflation, making it harder for the central bank to lower rates.

A Reuters poll of economists now indicates the Fed will wait until next quarter to cut rates, citing ongoing inflationary concerns. Although previously, some analysts anticipated a March rate cut; the majority now sees at least one rate cut by June, but opinions remain divided.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack echoed this sentiment, saying that maintaining rates at current levels for a long time is probably the right thing to do. Hammack added that a patient strategy will enable the Fed to evaluate economic conditions before altering policy.

Australian Dollar Targets Upper Range Near 0.6400

The AUD/USD currency pair quotes at 0.6360 on Monday, with an uptrend in a rising channel formation. This is indicative of a bullish market inclination, which is also complemented by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 50.

On the upside, the pair could test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6380, followed by the psychological level of 0.6400.

Major levels of support are the nine-day EMA at 0.6310, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6294. A fall below these levels may erode short-term momentum, possibly pulling the pair down to the lower boundary of the rising channel at 0.6270.

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Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Jobless Claims

Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Holds Gains Ahead of Jobless Claims

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as trade balance data came in below average than expected. Furthermore, risk-off sentiment, fueled by rising US-China trade tensions, weighs on the AUD/USD.

In December, Australia’s trade surplus fell to $5,085 million, falling short of the 7,000 million anticipated and down from $6,792 million the previous year. While exports increased by 1.1% month on month, this was a decrease from November’s 4.2% increase, while imports increased by 5.9% month on month, much more than the previous 1.4% gain.

US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Australian Dollar

Investors are still focused on the current trade stagnation between the United States and China, Australia’s top trading partner. China replied to the United States’ new 10% tax, which went into force on Tuesday, causing global market concern. Regarding the situation, President Trump announced on Monday that he intends to engage with China within the next 24 hours. However, he cautioned that failure to achieve an agreement might result in “very, very substantial” tariffs.

Meanwhile, China’s Commerce Ministry imposed a 15% tax on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, as well as an additional 10% levy on crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos. As a countermeasure, China has implemented export limits on important minerals such as tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, and molybdenum, citing national security concerns.

Amid escalating trade tensions, the Financial Times writes that Chinese firms are quickening preparations to relocate production overseas, mainly to the Middle East, in order to reduce tariff impacts. Some exporters are also considering passing on prices to US consumers or expanding into new markets.

US Dollar Holds Firm Amid Mixed Economic Data

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, remains stable near 107.50, putting further downward pressure on the AUD/USD. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a weaker-than-expected US Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January, below the market forecast of 54.3.

Investors now focus on Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a key economic indicator that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.

The dollar fell on Wednesday, following a poor US Services PMI report. The ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, missing the market forecast of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are anticipating Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Pulls Back From 0.6300, Eyes Key Support

The AUD/USD pair hovers near 0.6280 on Thursday, retreating from the 0.6300 level. However, sustained trading above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) suggests short-term bullish momentum remains intact. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also holding above 50, reinforcing the bullish bias.

On the upside, the pair might target 0.6330, its seven-week high from January 24.

Immediate support comes from the nine-day EMA near 0.6254, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6249.

A breach below these levels might weaken the bullish structure, potentially sending the pair below 0.6087, its lowest level since April 2020, which was recorded on February 3.

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Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

The Australian Dollar (AUD) falls for the seventh consecutive day as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens following President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Market volatility remains high as investors monitor the continuing US-China trade talks. Trump signaled he may speak with Chinese officials within the next 24 hours, warning that if a deal isn’t reached, tariffs on China will be “very, very substantial.”

Trump also announced a 30-day tariff relief for Mexico and Canada after their nations agreed to send 10,000 troops to the US border to battle drug trafficking. This move follows the introduction of 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods just two days before.

Chinese Exporters Seek Alternatives

According to the Financial Times, Chinese manufacturers are speeding up plans to transfer production offshore in reaction to US tariffs. Some companies are considering relocating to regions such as the Middle East, while others are looking into passing costs on to US customers or entering new markets.

RBA Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on AUD

The AUD faces additional pressure amid growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut rates in February. The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since November 2023, stressing that inflation must return to its 2%-3% target range before easing policy.

Analysts at Westpac continue to forecast 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, with the market pricing in a more conservative outlook. ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and National Australia Bank (NAB) all anticipate a 25-basis-point (bps) cut in February, with NAB recently revising its forecast forward from May.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Developments

The US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilizes around 108.70 after erasing gains from the previous session. Recent US economic data support the greenback, with ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, exceeding expectations of 49.8.

Inflation indicators remain in focus as the Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 0.3% MoM in December, up from 0.1% in November. Annual PCE inflation increased to 2.6%, while core PCE held steady at 2.8% YoY for the third straight month.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, highlighted that further policy adjustments would be required if there was clear evidence of inflation advance or labor market weakness. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently argued for new uniform taxes on US imports, beginning at 2.5% and progressively increasing—a departure from his previous stance that tariffs cause inflation.

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

AUD/USD trades around 0.6210 on Tuesday, remaining within a descending channel pattern on the daily chart, signaling a bearish bias. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recovering toward the 50 level, suggesting weakening downside momentum. A breakout above the channel, combined with an RSI move above 50, could indicate a shift toward a bullish outlook.

On the downside, the pair may test the descending channel’s lower boundary near 0.6150. A break below this level could drive AUD/USD toward 0.6087, its lowest point since April 2020.

AUD/USD is currently testing its initial resistance, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6225, which aligns with the channel’s upper limit. A decisive move over this level could fuel bullish optimism.

 

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Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum

Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum; USD/JPY Struggles Below 154.50

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen in early European trading on Thursday, pushing USD/JPY further below 154.50 and closer to its one-month low from earlier this week. Market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again by year-end continue to support the JPY. Additionally, a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields, narrowing the US-Japan yield differential, has further boosted demand for the lower-yielding Yen.

However, concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may limit aggressive JPY buying. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish pause on Wednesday has bolstered the US Dollar (USD), which could provide some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders are now looking ahead to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which may increase market volatility and drive further demand for the safe-haven Yen. Additionally, the Advance US Q4 GDP report could introduce short-term trading opportunities.

JPY Gains on Hawkish BoJ Sentiment Amid Market Uncertainty

  • Minutes from the BoJ’s December meeting, released Wednesday, indicated discussions on using neutral interest rate estimates to guide future rate hikes.
  • Former BoJ board member Makoto Sakurai stated on Tuesday that steady rate increases remain feasible due to rising wages, sustained inflation, and strong economic growth.
  • The Federal Reserve, as expected, held rates steady after its two-day meeting and signaled no immediate plans for rate cuts.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a patient stance, stating there is no urgency to adjust policy and reaffirming that rates will stay elevated amid concerns over Trump’s trade policies, which could fuel inflation.
  • The 10-year US Treasury yield has struggled to sustain gains post-FOMC due to uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s economic policies.
  • Reports from Asahi newspaper indicate that Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is finalizing plans for a February 7 meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington.
  • The ECB’s policy decision later today is expected to introduce further volatility, alongside the Advance US Q4 GDP print.

USD/JPY at Risk of Retesting Monthly Lows Near 153.70

The USD/JPY pair faced renewed selling pressure near the 156.00 level, breaking below the key 155.00 psychological mark, confirming a multi-month ascending channel breakdown. Momentum indicators on the daily chart suggest continued downside movement, making a retest of the 153.70 region—a multi-week low touched on Monday—a strong possibility.

Key resistance levels for a rebound:

  • 155.00 round figure
  • 155.35-155.40 region
  • 156.00 psychological level

Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling pressure near these levels. A sustained break above 156.25 could trigger short-covering, potentially lifting USD/JPY toward 156.70-156.75, with further resistance at 157.00 and 157.60.

For now, the bias remains bearish, with further losses expected if the pair stays below 154.00. Traders will closely watch US data and global central bank policy updates for the next directional move.

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Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold price (XAU/USD) faces selling pressure at the beginning of the week, pulling back from its highest level since late October, near the $2,786 mark touched on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) has staged a modest recovery following its worst weekly performance since November 2023, which has weighed on the precious metal. However, the broader market dynamics remain supportive of a bullish outlook, suggesting potential dip-buying opportunities at lower price levels.

Market Sentiment Dampened by Trade Tensions and Fed Speculation

Risk sentiment has deteriorated due to US President Donald Trump’s recent decision to impose tariffs on all imports from Colombia, reigniting fears of a trade war. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates twice by year-end, combined with a flight to safe-haven assets, have triggered a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields. This decline could limit aggressive gains in the USD, potentially cushioning the downside for gold, a non-yielding asset.

Gold Under Pressure from USD Recovery, but Downside Remains Limited

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of currencies, rose nearly 0.25% on Monday, driven by revived concerns over US trade policies. President Trump ordered 25% emergency tariffs on all Colombian imports following the country’s refusal to accept deported migrants from the US, with a threat to raise tariffs to 50% next week. Moreover, reports suggest that Trump’s advisors are considering imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1.

In a recent update, the White House confirmed that Colombia has agreed to Trump’s demands, including the unrestricted acceptance of deported individuals. Meanwhile, Trump has reiterated his call for immediate interest rate cuts, fueling speculation of further easing by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The resulting decline in US Treasury yields may act as a headwind for the USD, potentially limiting the extent of gold’s pullback.

Traders Eye Economic Data for Further Clues

Market participants will turn their focus to key US economic data, including Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, for fresh impetus during the US trading session.

Gold Price Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

Gold’s recent decline may attract dip-buying near the $2,736 support zone, as the technical setup remains bullish. Any further slide below the $2,750-2,748 range could find solid support near $2,736, with additional key levels at $2,725-2,720. A break below $2,720 could trigger technical selling, pushing prices toward the $2,665-2,662 zone.

On the upside, a sustained move above the $2,772-2,773 resistance could open the door for a retest of the recent peak near $2,786. Further buying momentum beyond the $2,800 psychological level could signal a renewed bullish phase, extending the upward trend

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Gold Price Holds Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold Price Remains Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold price (XAU/USD) came under selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday, retreating from the multi-month high of $2,763–$2,764 touched the previous day. This decline halts a three-day winning streak. The US Dollar (USD) gained some strength from its recovery off a monthly low, supported by a rebound in US Treasury bond yields, and the upbeat sentiment in equity markets further dampened demand for the safe-haven metal.

Signs of easing inflation in the US have fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates twice this year, creating a potential headwind for US bond yields and the USD. However, ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which could increase trade tensions and market volatility, may help limit the downside for gold prices. Traders may remain cautious and wait for sustained selling pressure to confirm that the one-month uptrend has ended.

Risk-On Mood and Modest USD Rebound Cap Gold Gains

The USD steadied above its recent lows amid recovering Treasury yields, adding pressure to gold prices. In addition, easing geopolitical tensions and a lack of concrete details regarding Trump’s tariff policies have maintained a risk-on sentiment, further undermining gold’s appeal.

While Trump’s proposed tariff policies are considered inflationary, which could prompt the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, markets are still pricing in at least two Fed rate cuts this year. This outlook may limit the upside for US bond yields and the USD, potentially supporting gold in the near term.

Investors are eyeing Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum for more clarity on tariffs, alongside the release of US Weekly Jobless Claims, which could influence XAU/USD prices. Upcoming central bank rate decisions, including the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday and next week’s announcements from the Fed and the European Central Bank, could inject volatility into the market and impact gold prices.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Key Support Levels:

  • Immediate support is seen near the $2,725–$2,720 zone, a former resistance-turned-support level.
  • Further declines could target the $2,700 mark, with a decisive break paving the way for a move toward the $2,665–$2,662 region.
  • The $2,627–$2,622 confluence, which includes the 100-day EMA and a short-term ascending trendline, will act as a critical pivot point for short-term traders.

Key Resistance Levels:

  • The recent high near $2,763–$2,764 offers the first resistance level.
  • A break above this zone could see gold prices challenge the all-time high around $2,790, reached in October.
  • The $2,800 mark is the next significant resistance, and a break above it would signal a continuation of the well-established uptrend over the past month.

Outlook:

Gold prices remain influenced by risk sentiment, central bank policy expectations, and USD movements. While near-term bearish factors may limit gains, uncertainty around US tariff policies and inflation trends could provide support, making any dips near key technical levels potential opportunities for dip-buying. Traders will remain focused on upcoming economic data and central bank decisions for further direction.

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Gold Prices Slip as Recession Fears Diminish

Gold Prices Slip as Recession Fears Diminish, Set for Weekly Losses

Gold Prices Slip as Recession Fears Diminish, Set for Weekly Losses

Gold prices dipped in Asian trading on Friday, weighed down by positive U.S. labor data that boosted risk appetite and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. This decline put the yellow metal on track for weekly losses.

In the industrial metals sector, copper prices also benefited from the improved risk sentiment, with positive inflation data from China, the world’s largest importer, helping to lift the mood. However, copper remained on course for steep weekly losses.

Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,419.23 per ounce, while December gold futures dropped 0.2% to $2,459.10 per ounce as of 01:40 ET (05:40 GMT).

Gold Eyes Mild Weekly Losses, Remains Near Record Highs

Spot gold prices were down nearly 1% this week, retreating from near-record highs reached last week as recession fears had driven up safe-haven demand.

However, those fears receded throughout the week, particularly after strong U.S. labor market data suggested that a severe economic slowdown might not be imminent.

Weekly jobless claims data released on Thursday exceeded expectations, leading to a sharp rebound in risk-driven markets, particularly stocks, and reducing the appeal of gold as a safe haven.

Despite the dip, gold’s losses were somewhat limited as investors continued to bet on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

This expectation also lent some support to other precious metals, although they too saw declines on Friday and were headed for weekly losses. Platinum futures slipped 0.1% to $941.20 per ounce, while silver futures declined 0.3% to $27.535 per ounce.

Copper Prices Edge Up on Positive China Inflation, But Weekly Losses Loom

Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.8% to $8,896.50 per ton, while one-month copper futures increased by the same margin to $4.0150 per pound.

Despite these gains, both contracts were down about 2% for the week and hovered near four-month lows.

Some positive data from China, the top importer, provided a boost to copper prices. July’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation exceeded expectations, while producer price index (PPI) inflation contracted less than anticipated. This data fueled optimism that demand for copper might be improving in China.

However, other indicators earlier in the week, particularly import data, showed that China’s copper imports declined for the second consecutive month in July, adding to the metal’s downward pressure.

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Topix and Nikkei Hit Record Highs in Japan Stock Rally

Topix and Nikkei Hit Record Highs in Japan Stock Rally

Topix and Nikkei Hit Record Highs in Japan Stock Rally

Japan’s Topix stock index surged past its bubble-era peak to reach a record high, signaling a broad-based rally beyond just a few stocks. The benchmark index rose as much as 0.6% to 2,890.52, exceeding the previous intraday record set in December 1989. Most of the 33 industry sub-indexes in the gauge, which covers over 2,000 companies, climbed. Automakers provided the biggest boost, while insurers and banks have been top performers since the index hit a low in mid-April, driven by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates, improving their profitability.

Initial gains were from the exporter and tech-heavy Nikkei index, so it’s not surprising to see the Topix catching up.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average reclaimed its all-time high in February, aided by a global tech rally and a weaker yen boosting exporters. Both indices surged over 25% last year as global funds flowed into the market, attracted by ultra-low borrowing costs, booming profits, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s (TSE) push for better corporate governance.

Investor sentiment remains strong despite the BOJ’s shift towards tighter monetary policy. Banks have advanced on speculation that higher yields will improve lending margins, while insurers are expected to boost profitability through bond investments. However, the BOJ’s decision to delay plans for reducing bond buying until July caused the yen to fall, disappointing investors who wanted more details. The yen’s fresh multi-decade lows have tempered its boost to exporter shares, with fund managers wary of currency intervention. Concerns are mounting that a weak yen may become a liability for Japanese companies and the economy.

Despite these challenges, Japanese stocks remain a favorite in Asia. Bank of America’s June fund manager survey showed that one-third of respondents view corporate governance improvements as the most important theme. Analysts expect the TSE’s plan to revamp the Topix index to pressure companies further to improve governance.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists highlighted that Japanese corporations are keen to show their response to governance reform pressure. Activists are starting to see success, as evidenced by recent shareholder victories at annual general meetings. Shareholders of clothing firm Daidoh Ltd. supported three board candidates proposed by Japanese fund Strategic Capital Inc., and the president of Toyo Securities Co. withdrew his candidacy for reappointment due to lack of shareholder support.

The movement of the Topix index indicates the bottoming out and an all-time high of the Japanese market as a whole, unlike the Nikkei 225, which is biased toward certain stocks.

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Focus Shifts to FOMC Minutes

Asian Shares and US Futures Fall on Tech Losses

Asian Shares and US Futures Fall on Tech Losses

Asian shares fell alongside European and US stock-index futures after Micron Technology Inc.’s sales outlook missed the highest forecasts, impacting major tech companies in late Wall Street trading. Stocks in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and China all declined, pushing the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge toward its first loss in three days.

The yen recovered some losses after dropping to 160.87 per dollar on Wednesday, its weakest level since 1986. An emerging-market currency gauge neared a two-month low, and an Asian currency index fell to levels last seen in 2022 as the dollar strengthened. Treasuries continued to decline amid concerns that Friday’s US PCE data would show persistent inflation.

“It’s all about the Fed—higher rates for longer are keeping short-term rates high, drawing money into the US and strengthening the dollar,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities LLC. For Japan, “it’s a problem,” he added.

MSCI Inc.‘s key gauge for Chinese stocks is headed for a technical correction as traders struggle to find catalysts ahead of a July meeting of the nation’s top leaders. The MSCI China Index fell up to 2% on Thursday, marking a nearly 10% decline since its May 20 high.

The yen strengthened from a 38-year low after Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki remarked that “one-sided moves in the foreign exchange market were not desirable as currencies should reflect fundamentals.” The currency had dropped 0.7% on Wednesday.

Micron Technology shares dropped in extended US trading after the computer memory chip maker disappointed investors hoping for gains from the AI computing boom. This news also pulled down other chipmakers, including Nvidia Corp.

Wall Street’s latest attempt to broaden beyond megacap stocks was short-lived, with various measures showing weak market breadth, increasing uncertainty about the rally’s sustainability. The disparity between S&P 500 performance and breadth is among the worst in three decades, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

“The stock market is overly reliant on big tech,” said David Bahnsen at The Bahnsen Group. “Whether the recent tech volatility is the start of something deeper or a future reckoning remains to be seen, but excessive investor sentiment and overdone momentum always end the same way.”

Elsewhere, Asia Pacific companies and governments’ sales of dollar bonds in the primary market hit a nine-month high this week. Issuers aim to lock in historically tight spreads before they rise further. The Korean government and other issuers sold over $5.5 billion of notes on Wednesday, pushing the week’s total close to $14 billion, according to Bloomberg data.

In commodities, gold steadied after a two-day decline, while oil traded in a narrow range ahead of the next round of US economic data.

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Asian Stocks Climb Following Wall Street

Asian Stocks Climb Following Wall Street, Nvidia Falls Amid Cooling AI Hype

Asian Stocks Climb Following Wall Street, Nvidia Falls Amid Cooling AI Hype

Asian stocks experienced a rise on Tuesday, even as mixed results were observed on Wall Street, primarily due to a further decline in Nvidia amid cooling enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Despite the fall of this tech giant, the majority of U.S. stocks managed to rally, leading to higher U.S. futures and stable oil prices.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index saw a significant 1% jump to 39,190.97 following the release of data from the Bank of Japan, which indicated a 2.5% increase in the services producer price index for May year-over-year. This marked a slight deceleration from April’s 2.7% rise. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar, which drew considerable attention in the forex markets.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose by 0.5% to 18,109.80, while the Shanghai Composite index experienced a minor setback, dipping 0.3% to 2,953.95. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased by 1.2% to 7,829.70, and South Korea’s Kospi added 0.4% to 2,774.54. In other parts of Asia, Taiwan’s Taiex and the SET in Bangkok both enjoyed modest gains.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 dropped slightly by 0.3% to 5,447.87, primarily dragged down by Nvidia’s 6.7% fall, marking its third consecutive day of losses. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fared better, climbing 0.7% to 39,411.21. The Nasdaq composite was pulled down 1.1% to 17,496.82, reflecting the decline in tech stocks.

The energy sector, however, stood out positively, with stocks such as Exxon Mobil and SLB posting gains of 3% and 4%, respectively. Financial stocks also showed strength, with JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo recording increases ahead of upcoming stress test results from the Federal Reserve.

Nvidia’s recent declines have sparked concerns over a potential bubble in the AI sector, as its stock has soared by 1,000% since late 2022, largely driven by the demand for its AI chips. This rapid growth has led to fears of overly high expectations among investors. Moreover, Nvidia’s significant market size means that its stock movements have a pronounced impact on the S&P 500 and other indices.

Other companies that have benefited from the AI boom also saw some retrenchment. For instance, Super Micro Computer’s shares dropped by 8.6%, pulling its year-to-date gains down to below 200%.

In the bond market, Treasury yields slightly decreased, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropping to 4.23% from 4.26%. This decrease is part of a broader trend of falling yields since late April, buoyed by hopes that easing inflation might prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later in the year.

Overall, the market dynamics reflect a mix of optimism and caution, with sector rotations suggesting a healthy adjustment despite the overarching influence of a few large companies on overall market performance.

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Chinese Bond Market Heats Up

Chinese Bond Market Heats Up: Firm Considers 50-Year Sale

Amid an unprecedented boom in bond issuance as borrowing costs plummet to record lows, a state-owned Chinese firm is contemplating an unprecedented offering of a 50-year note. This potential issuance would mark the nation’s longest corporate debt tenor if it comes to fruition.

Wuxi Industry Development Group Co., which is owned by the Wuxi city government near Shanghai, has engaged underwriters to gauge investor interest for a possible 1 billion yuan ($138 million) 50-year domestic bond sale. According to insiders, the deal is still in its early stages, and terms, including the tenor, may change.

If this bond with a 50-year maturity is issued and priced, it would set a new record for the longest-tenor corporate note ever in China’s local market, excluding perpetual securities, according to Bloomberg data.

Such an ultra-long tenor is exceptionally rare in corporate markets both in China and globally. However, firms are eager to secure cheap financing as China’s bond yields and credit spreads hit record lows. Investors are pouring funds into fixed-income assets, despite warnings from the central bank about a potential asset bubble.

The duration considered by Wuxi Industry is unusual even in China’s low-rate environment. More issuances with long tenors could follow, especially from local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). Senior Asia credit strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., Ting Meng, noted that extending maturities with long-tenor loans and bonds could be a strategy to address LGFVs’ high debt problems. However, she warned that issuers’ credit and duration could pose risks if interest rates rise in the future.

Previously, only a few state-owned firms in China have issued 30-year corporate notes, which, until now, represent the longest tenor excluding perpetuals. Earlier this month, Wuxi Industry priced a 1 billion yuan, 30-year local bond at 3.23%.

The yield premium for 30-year AAA-rated corporate bonds over comparable sovereign debt has narrowed to a record low of 20 basis points this week, based on China Bond indexes compiled by Bloomberg.

Wuxi Industry, whose operations span semiconductors, trade, and investment, declined to comment on the matter. The company reported a profit of 1.9 billion yuan last year, according to its website. 

As China’s bond market continues to heat up, the potential issuance of a 50-year bond by Wuxi Industry Development Group could set a significant precedent, highlighting the trend of leveraging low borrowing costs to secure long-term financing. This move not only reflects the strategic financial maneuvers of Chinese firms but also signals a broader trend that could shape the future of corporate debt issuance in China.

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Nvidia

Nvidia Overtakes Apple in $71 Billion ETF Reshuffle

Nvidia Overtakes Apple in $71 Billion ETF Reshuffle

One of the most significant technology ETFs, the $71 billion Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), managed by State Street Global Advisors, is expected to undergo a major rebalancing that will significantly increase its exposure to Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) at the expense of Apple Inc. (AAPL). This change, set by the index provider S&P Dow Jones Indices, is likely to generate billions in trading volume due to the adjustments.

Nvidia, which has seen a remarkable 166% increase in its market value year-to-date, has been underrepresented in XLK compared to its standing in the S&P 500 Information Technology Index. Currently, Nvidia holds about 6% of XLK’s assets versus 22% in the broader index, a discrepancy due to diversification rules that cap individual stock ownership.

The upcoming quarterly rebalance at the end of June is anticipated to shift the weightings dramatically, with Apple’s share within the ETF dropping to 4.5% and Nvidia’s increasing to over 20%. This adjustment requires State Street to buy approximately $11 billion in Nvidia shares and sell about $12 billion of Apple shares, a move that reflects the average daily trading volume of Apple over the past three months.

This rebalance aims to better align XLK with current market trends, particularly in the semiconductor sector. The methodology of the ETF ensures it adheres to diversification rules that prevent concentrated investments, which have been in place for over 80 years to protect investors.

Moreover, the rules set by S&P allow for possible exceptions in their application, which could lead to deviations from the planned rebalance. This possibility and the consequential trades are a focus for investors, as shifts in index compositions are a critical strategy in hedge fund trading.

The anticipation around this rebalance is significant due to the potential market volatility it could induce. The exact adjustments in ETF composition often drive strategic trading decisions in anticipation of such changes. The approach to this rebalance and any potential deviations from the set rules will be closely watched by the market, especially considering the implications for upcoming rebalances in September and beyond.

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Chinese Stocks Fall Amid Economic Worries

Chinese Stocks Fall Amid Economic Worries

Chinese Stocks Fall Amid Economic Worries

Chinese stocks fell sharply following a long weekend, with negative developments dampening market sentiment. The CSI 300 Index of mainland shares declined by as much as 1.4% after the markets reopened post the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. In Hong Kong, the index of Chinese shares was one of Asia’s largest losers, dropping up to 2%.

The downturn was triggered by several factors including subdued travel spending and renewed concerns over the property sector, which cast doubts on the durability of China’s economic rebound. Additionally, geopolitical risks impacted shares of electric vehicle manufacturers as markets anticipated the European Commission’s decision on provisional duties.

Analysts pointed out that the recent holiday weekend failed to generate strong consumption, a contrast to the robust activity seen during the May golden week. This was coupled with inconsistent property sales, further straining investor confidence. This follows a series of disappointing economic indicators such as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and import figures.

Despite an 8.1% year-on-year rise in domestic tourism spending during the holiday, the overall momentum appeared to weaken compared to other recent holidays. According to Citigroup analysts Brian Gong and Alicia Yap, the average expenditure per traveler remained low, negatively affecting travel-related stocks like Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.

Efforts by authorities to stabilize the property market did not improve investor sentiment. Dexin China Holdings Co., a property developer, was the latest to be wound up, pushing developer stocks into a technical bear market despite a comprehensive support package from the central government announced last week.

The initial stock rally in China is showing signs of faltering, with a key index on the Shanghai stock exchange nearing an important psychological threshold for the first time since late-March on a closing basis.

Market participants are now looking for more decisive measures to support the market, having been underwhelmed by recent interventions. Attention is also turning to the upcoming third plenum in July, a secretive high-level meeting expected to provide clues on possible policy changes and measures to bolster the slowing economy.

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WTI Crude Oil Climbs to $73.50 as Middle-East Tensions Raise Supply Disruption Fears

WTI Crude Oil Rises to $73.50 Amid Middle-East Tensions and Potential Supply Disruption

WTI Crude Oil Rises to $73.50 Amid Middle-East Tensions and Potential Supply Disruption

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil continues its upward trend for the fourth consecutive day, trading near $73.50 per barrel during Friday’s Asian session. The rise in oil prices is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from a region that accounts for approximately one-third of global crude production.

US President Joe Biden revealed that the US is in discussions with Israel regarding possible strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, as tensions mount following Iran’s missile attack on Israel earlier in the week. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran would face severe repercussions for its actions, which included firing over 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, according to a BBC report.

Despite the growing risks, OPEC+—a group that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia and Kazakhstan—has significant spare capacity to offset a potential loss of Iranian supply. However, if Iran retaliates by targeting the oil facilities of its Gulf neighbors, it could present significant challenges to global supply.

OPEC+ has been reducing oil output in recent years to support prices amid sluggish global demand. Currently, the group’s production cuts amount to 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd). Analysts estimate that Saudi Arabia has the capacity to increase production by 3 million bpd, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) could boost output by 1.4 million bpd if necessary.

In a separate development, Libya’s National Oil Corporation and its eastern-based government announced on Thursday the reopening of oil fields and export terminals, ending a leadership dispute that had severely curtailed the country’s oil production. According to Reuters, this resolution is expected to restore a significant portion of Libya’s crude supply to the global market.

 

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WTI Jumps Above $70 Amid Fears of Oil Supply Disruptions After Iran Missile Strike on Israel

WTI Surges Above $70 as Iran Missile Strike on Israel Sparks Fears in Global Oil Markets

WTI Surges Above $70 as Iran Missile Strike on Israel Sparks Fears in Global Oil Markets

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, climbed to around $70.65 on Wednesday. The surge comes after Iran launched missiles at Israel, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from the region.

Iran fired over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to vow retaliation. Tehran warned that any counterattack would lead to “vast destruction,” stoking fears of a broader conflict. Israel has also hinted at the possibility of striking Iranian oil facilities, which could escalate into a regional war, further heightening concerns about supply disruptions in the global oil market.
Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories fell less than expected last week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude stockpiles in the US declined by 1.5 million barrels for the week ending September 27, compared to the prior week’s 4.339 million barrel drop. Market expectations were for a decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

On the downside, recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, who pushed back against calls for a significant rate cut in November, could weigh on WTI prices. Powell acknowledged that more rate cuts are likely, given the economy’s solid footing, but he cautioned against making drastic adjustments too quickly.

Traders are closely watching speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, including Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Beth Hammack, Alberto Musalem, and Michelle Bowman, for further market guidance. Any hawkish signals from the Fed could pressure WTI prices. It’s also important to note that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, which typically boosts oil demand.

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WTI Holds Near $69.00 Amid Rising Middle East Supply Fears

WTI Holds Near $69.00 Amid Rising Middle East Supply Fears

WTI Holds Near $69.00 Amid Rising Middle East Supply Fears

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude holds steady around $69.20 per barrel during Monday’s Asian session, driven by rising concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from escalating conflict in the Middle East. Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly Israel’s intensified attacks on Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, have sparked fears of instability, which could push oil prices higher.

ANZ Research, as reported by Reuters, noted that the increasing likelihood of Iran’s involvement in the conflict is contributing to concerns, as Iran is a major oil producer and OPEC member. Over the weekend, Israel expanded its military campaign by bombing Houthi targets in Yemen, following the recent killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

On the other hand, oil prices are facing downward pressure from mixed economic data out of China, the world’s largest oil importer. China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI for September fell to 49.3, signaling contraction, while the NBS Manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.8, surpassing market expectations.

Oil traders are also keeping a close eye on China’s monetary stimulus measures aimed at boosting economic activity and energy demand. China recently announced a CNY 1 trillion capital injection into its largest state banks, marking the most significant financial move since the 2008 crisis.

However, potential headwinds for crude prices could come from Saudi Arabia’s plans to increase production. Saudi Arabia is expected to resume oil production on December 1, with OPEC+ agreeing to boost output by 180,000 barrels per day. Reports suggest that the Kingdom is committed to this increase, even if it temporarily pressures prices downward.

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WTI Extends Rally Above $70.00 as Hurricane Francine Disrupts Production

WTI Extends Rally Above $70.00 as Hurricane Francine Disrupts Production

WTI Extends Rally Above $70.00 as Hurricane Francine Disrupts Production

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.35 on Tuesday, continuing its rally as Hurricane Francine impacts oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico. The storm has caused significant disruptions, with the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) reporting on Monday that roughly 12% of crude oil production and 16% of natural gas output in the Gulf have been halted. This supply disruption has pushed WTI prices to two-week highs.

Adding to the bullish momentum, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Investors are increasingly betting on a 50 basis point rate cut, according to CME FedWatch. Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, which typically supports increased demand for oil.
However, ongoing concerns about Chinese demand may temper some of WTI’s gains. China, the world’s largest oil importer, continues to show signs of an economic slowdown. Over the weekend, data revealed that Chinese industrial production growth fell to a five-month low in August, with further deterioration in retail sales and new home prices.

Xtrememarkets market strategist Yeap Jun Rong highlighted that weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data has dampened market sentiment, raising doubts about future oil demand as China’s growth outlook remains sluggish. This could weigh on WTI’s upward momentum.

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WTI Falls to Around $72.50 as OPEC+ Plans Production Increase

WTI Falls to Around $72.50 as OPEC+ Plans Production Increase

WTI Falls to Around $72.50 as OPEC+ Plans Production Increase

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have declined for the second consecutive session, trading near $72.50 per barrel during Monday’s Asian trading hours. This downward trend is largely attributed to reports that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) are planning to increase oil production in the upcoming quarter.

According to a Reuters report citing six sources, OPEC+ is expected to proceed with a planned production increase starting in October. Specifically, eight OPEC+ member countries are set to boost their output by 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month. This move is part of a broader strategy to gradually reverse a recent production cut of 2.2 million bpd while maintaining other cuts until the end of 2025.
However, the fall in crude oil prices could be mitigated by ongoing supply concerns. In Libya, oil export disruptions caused by conflicts between rival factions have constrained supply. Despite this, the Arabian Gulf Oil Company has resumed production, operating at up to 120,000 bpd to satisfy domestic demand.

Weak demand in China and the United States, the world’s largest oil consumers, could further weigh on WTI prices. An official survey indicated that China’s manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, accompanied by a sharp drop in factory gate prices. In response, Chinese policymakers are advancing plans to increase economic stimulus for households.

In the US, oil consumption in June hit its lowest seasonal levels since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) last Friday. Analysts at ANZ have highlighted potential downside risks to growth in 2025, driven by economic challenges in both China and the US. They suggest that OPEC may need to delay phasing out its voluntary production cuts if it aims to support higher oil prices.

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WTI Crude Oil Prices Remain Steady

WTI Crude Oil Prices Remain Steady Below $73 Amid US Recession Concerns and Easing Supply Fears

WTI Crude Oil Prices Remain Steady Below $73 Amid US Recession Concerns and Easing Supply Fears

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are struggling to build on Thursday’s rebound from a two-week low near the mid-$71 range, trading in a narrow band around $72.75 during Friday’s Asian session. The commodity remains nearly flat for the day and is set for significant weekly losses due to ongoing concerns about slowing demand.

The downward revision of US job growth figures for the year through March has reignited fears of a potential recession in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. Additionally, persistent concerns about an economic slowdown in China, the world’s top oil importer, are acting as headwinds for WTI crude. Meanwhile, optimism about a ceasefire in Gaza is also limiting the upside for oil prices, as US officials indicated that a truce between Israel and Hamas could be imminent. This development eases concerns over a broader conflict in the Middle East, a critical oil-producing region, and potential supply disruptions.

On the supportive side, US government data released on Wednesday revealed a substantial drawdown in crude oil inventories, suggesting strong domestic demand. Moreover, market expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates—potentially announcing a 25 basis point reduction at the September meeting—could boost economic activity, thereby supporting crude oil prices. Despite these factors, the US Dollar’s inability to sustain its recovery from year-to-date lows provides some support to USD-denominated commodities, including crude oil, mitigating the risk of further declines.

Given these mixed signals, traders are cautious about taking new positions and are awaiting clearer market direction before betting on an extension of the nearly two-week downtrend in WTI prices.

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Oil Edges Higher Ahead of Weekly Stockpile Reports

Oil Edges Higher Ahead of Weekly Stockpile Reports

Oil Edges Higher Ahead of Weekly Stockpile Reports

Oil prices are trading relatively flat on Wednesday after experiencing sharp declines over the past three sessions. The stabilization follows reports that a tanker in the Red Sea was attacked by Houthi rebels. Delta Tankers confirmed that its vessel, Sounion, sustained minor damage in the attack. This incident adds further tension to the region just as Hamas is reportedly considering a ceasefire proposal in Gaza from both Israel and the US.

Similarly, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trying to recover from a losing streak that erased all its gains for 2024. The key focus today is the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which could provide insights ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. Additionally, the Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision may result in adjustments to employment data for the past year, up until March.

At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude is trading at $73.23 per barrel, while Brent Crude is at $76.92 per barrel.

Oil Market Update: Red Sea Tensions and Stockpile Data

  • OPEC+ Production Constraints: OPEC+ is unlikely to increase production significantly due to concerns that higher output could further depress prices, especially with increased supply from the US and Brazil, according to BP’s Chief Economist Spencer Dale, as reported by Bloomberg.
  • Uganda’s Crude Development: Uganda’s Energy Minister, Ruth Nankabirwa, announced progress on a $20 billion Crude development project in partnership with TotalEnergies and Cnooc.
  • Tanker Incident: Delta Tankers reported that the Sounion tanker has been attacked three times and is still determining if the vessel remains on course or is adrift, according to Reuters.
  • Crude Stockpile Changes: The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a modest stockpile increase of 347,000 barrels overnight, which contrasts with analysts’ expectations of a 2.8 million barrel drawdown.

Later today, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly Crude stockpile data. The previous report indicated a build of 1.357 million barrels, with expectations now for a drawdown of 2.8 million barrels.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, keeping the USD/JPY pair firm around the 147.00 mark during the Asian session. A stronger US Dollar and persistent concerns over rising trade tensions are weighing heavily on the Yen, as markets brace for the impact of US tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1. 

Former US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese imports, coupled with the threat of retaliatory action, has sparked renewed fears over Japan’s economic resilience. The country’s Q1 GDP contracted, real wages in May dropped at their steepest pace in nearly two years, and political uncertainty is rising ahead of the July 20 House of Councillors election. Recent polls suggest the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may struggle to retain its majority, further dampening investor confidence. 

These developments have led traders to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. The combination of domestic headwinds and external pressure is weakening the JPY, while the US Dollar continues to gain on expectations that rising tariffs will stoke inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. 

The Fed’s June decision to hold interest rates steady, along with a strong US jobs report, has reinforced the belief that rate cuts may be delayed until at least October. The FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, will be closely watched for insights into the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets currently anticipate up to 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end. 

Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds 

Technically, USD/JPY’s break and close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) — for the first time since February — signals potential for further gains. Positive momentum on the daily chart supports a move toward the 147.60–147.65 resistance area, with the 148.00 handle, a key June high, in sight. 

On the downside, immediate support lies near 146.50, with the 100-day SMA just below 146.00 acting as a critical pivot. A decisive break below this level could shift momentum in favor of bears, opening room for deeper losses. 

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NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5700 on weaker US PMI data

During the early Asian session on Thursday, the NZD/USD pair was trading slightly higher at 0.5690. The Greenback falls against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as US economic data disappoints. Investors will keenly monitor developments in the rekindled trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. 

The weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) could weigh on the Greenback and generate a tailwind for the pair. The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3.

On the other hand, New Zealand’s fourth-quarter employment report will put the RBNZ on pace to decrease the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% this month. Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday that the country’s unemployment rate increased to 5.1% in Q4, up from 4.8% the previous quarter. This result was a four-year high and exceeded the 25-year average of 4.8%. Rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may decrease interest rates may further impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

“In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% at the February 19 meeting and the policy rate to through around 3.00% over the next 12 months. Bottom line: NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD,” noted Société Générale’s FX analysts. 

On Tuesday, the finance ministry in China unveiled a package of tariffs on various US products such as crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos in a sharp response to an announcement made by US President Donald Trump imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Further, China served notice to several companies including Google for potential sanctions in response to Trump’s tariffs. Any sign of uncertainty or a rising trade war tension may see the China-proxy Kiwi being dragged lower, as China remains one of the major trading partners to New Zealand.

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JPY Recovers Losses vs. USD, Bullish Outlook Intact

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses Against USD; Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

The Japanese yen (JPY) cut some of its intraday losses against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, bringing the USD/JPY pair back below the mid-155.00s during the early European session. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions showed conversations about the possibility of further hikes in interest rates. Furthermore, Tokyo’s core inflation increased at the quickest annual rate in nearly a year, raising expectations of further policy tightening by the BoJ, which supports the JPY.

Beyond monetary policy, narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economies, including the US, alongside a broader risk-off sentiment, provide additional support to the safe-haven JPY. However, concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s newly announced trade tariffs limit the yen’s upside. Meanwhile, the USD remains broadly strong, allowing the USD/JPY pair to maintain its positive momentum for a second consecutive day, ahead of the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI report.

Yen Gains Traction Amid BoJ Rate Hike Bets and Trade War Fears

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, effective Tuesday.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, and China’s foreign ministry all replied quickly, indicating probable retaliation. The US Dollar continues to climb, approaching a two-year high last hit in January, supporting the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

The Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions, released on Monday, showed that policymakers are thinking about additional rate hikes, though this has failed to appreciably lift the JPY.

Board members of the Bank of Japan stressed the need of continuing to raise interest rates if economic conditions and inflation remain stable.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the government is closely monitoring the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the yen amid concerns over potential economic fallout.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reiterated Japan’s commitment to achieving the BoJ’s 2% inflation target while implementing measures to offset rising living costs.

The US-Japan yield spread remains near a multi-week low, which, coupled with risk aversion, could help stabilize the yen in the near term.

Investors now turn their focus to key US economic data, starting with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Near 156.25; Bears in Control Below This Level

From a technical standpoint, last week’s strong rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally and the subsequent upside move favor bullish traders. However, additional gains beyond 156.00 may encounter resistance near last week’s swing high at 156.25. A sustained break above this level could spark a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards:

  • 156.70-156.75 resistance
  • 157.00 psychological mark
  • 157.60 horizontal barrier
  • Potential extension towards 158.00, with an ultimate target at the 158.85-158.90 multi-month high from January 10

Conversely, on the downside:-

  • 155.00 serves as immediate support
  • Below this, watch for key levels at 154.55-154.50 and 154.00
  • A break below the 153.70 January low could accelerate the decline towards 153.30 and eventually 153.00

While the JPY is exhibiting some resilience, the overall trend remains unpredictable, with market participants intently watching economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

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Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rise, Fed Decision Looms

Australian Dollar Slides Amid Rising Odds of RBA Rate Cuts, Fed Decision in Focus

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak for a third consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD), weighed down by softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, matching the previous quarter but missing the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI eased to 2.4% from 2.8% in Q3, below the market forecast of 2.5%. Despite December’s monthly CPI ticking up to 2.5% YoY, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2%-3% target range. Meanwhile, the RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI slowed to 3.2% YoY, its weakest pace in three years, slightly under the anticipated 3.3%.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed confidence that “the worst of the inflation challenge is behind us” and that a “soft landing” is increasingly likely. The cooling inflation strengthens the case for an RBA rate cut in February. The central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing the need for inflation to “sustainably” return to target before considering a rate reduction.

AUD Pressured by Risk Aversion, Trump’s Tariff Threats

The AUD faces additional headwinds from risk-off sentiment following tariff threats by former US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of key commodities, including computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to boost US manufacturing.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm around 108.00 as traders turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, indicate near-certainty that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for guidance on future policy shifts.

Concerns over the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies add another layer of uncertainty. US Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino noted, “A number of White House proposals appear inflationary, which could keep the Fed in check.” Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed universal tariffs on US imports starting at 2.5%, with Trump reportedly favoring even higher rates.

China’s Economic Slowdown Adds Pressure on AUD

The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to China’s economic struggles. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1, missing expectations, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.2 from 52.2. As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s weak data weighs heavily on the AUD.

Despite China’s recent stimulus measures, including a $7.25 billion investment in index products and long-term stock investments, concerns persist. Industrial profits fell 3.3% YoY in 2024, marking a third consecutive year of contraction, driven by weak demand, deflationary pressures, and a prolonged property sector slump.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Turns Bearish Below 0.6250

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6230 on Wednesday after breaking below the ascending channel on the daily chart, signaling a shift toward a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, reinforcing downside momentum.

A decisive break below key support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel strengthens the bearish outlook, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward 0.6131—its lowest level since April 2020. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6256. A rebound above this level could reintroduce a bullish bias, with the next upside target near 0.6360.

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US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

The US dollar strengthened significantly against all major currencies after President Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary reignited concerns about potential tariffs, raising fears that trade policies may return to the forefront. Risk-sensitive currencies, particularly those tied to China, saw sharp declines, while the euro weakened amid speculation that the European Union could soon face tariff pressures. Simultaneously, the Japanese yen took a hit as traders hedged against potential US inflation spikes and rising Treasury yields.

This market turbulence followed a Financial Times report indicating that Scott Bessent, the newly appointed Treasury Department official, supports a phased approach to implementing universal tariffs on US imports. The initial proposal suggests starting with a 2.5% tariff rate. However, President Trump hinted at a much broader scope, potentially targeting a range of imports from steel to semiconductor chips and suggesting higher tariff rates over time.

The administration’s “moderate” proposal involves a gradual increase in tariffs, reaching 20% over eight months in increments of 2.5% per month. This timeline has triggered speculation about more extreme scenarios and raised questions about the global trade concessions needed to halt these measures. Bessent’s approach, which allows businesses time to adjust, could also spark a rush of imports and exports to avoid higher future costs.

Amid these developments, financial markets are grappling with the potential outcomes. Traders are assessing whether the proposed tariff measures are fully priced in and evaluating the likelihood of de-escalation through negotiation.

On the positive side, any concessions or agreements that delay or reduce tariffs could stabilize markets. However, the risks of escalating tariffs, particularly if negotiations fail, remain a significant concern. Higher tariffs could disrupt global trade and have far-reaching implications for currency valuations.

While we initially favored long positions on the dollar, the unfolding tariff narrative has introduced significant uncertainty. Staying prepared for sudden shifts in policy and market dynamics is now crucial as the situation continues to evolve.

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Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) ended its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the AUD/USD pair trading flat following the release of mixed Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. As a close trade partner, Australia’s economy is heavily influenced by China’s economic performance.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, down from 50.1 in December, missing market expectations. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 from the previous month’s 52.2. These weaker-than-expected figures suggest a slowdown in China’s economic recovery, weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.

Despite fresh stimulus measures from China aimed at revitalizing its equity markets, the AUD struggled to gain momentum. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a second round of long-term stock investment pilot programs valued at 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). However, these measures have done little to alleviate investor concerns about China’s economic challenges.

Risk Aversion Rises Amid Trump’s Trade Tariff Push

Broader market sentiment took a hit as reports emerged that US President Donald Trump’s advisers are pushing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February 1, bypassing negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s willingness to move swiftly on tariffs follows similar actions taken against Colombia, raising fears of escalating trade tensions and dampening demand for riskier assets like the Australian Dollar.

Adding to the negative outlook, China’s Industrial Profits declined by 3.3% year-over-year in 2024 to CNY 7,431.05 billion, marking the third consecutive year of contraction. This downturn highlights ongoing economic headwinds, including weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property sector.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Bullish Setup

The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6290 on Monday, showing signs of upward momentum within an ascending channel on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 50, reflecting mild optimism in the market.

On the upside, the pair could retest the psychological resistance level at 0.6300, with the next target near the channel’s upper boundary around 0.6350.

Support levels are found at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6265, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6254. A stronger support lies near the channel’s lower boundary around 0.6240, which could act as a safety net in case of a downside correction.

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NZD/USD Struggles

NZD/USD Struggles Below 0.5700 Amid Trump’s Tariff Plans and Dovish RBNZ Expectations

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading near 0.5675 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces headwinds due to uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China and the dovish outlook of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicated a continued decline in underlying inflation, strengthening expectations of additional rate cuts by the RBNZ. Swap markets now estimate a nearly 90% chance of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut on February 19, building on the two cuts already implemented in this cycle. The RBNZ is projected to deliver a total of 100 bps in rate cuts through the remainder of 2025.

Meanwhile, the downside for the pair could be capped by recent comments from Trump. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump called for immediate interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” Trump said.

Investors are now closely watching for further details on Trump’s tariff policies, alongside key US economic data releases. The flash US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for January will be a key focus later on Friday, along with the release of US Existing Home Sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

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Bitcoin Price Goes Downside and Capped at Level $9,700 to Confluence Detector

 

Bitcoin Price Goes Downside and Capped at Level $9,700 to Confluence Detector

 

The Bitcoin has gone undergone a significant drop in the past few days.

A week ago, It was noticed that Bitcoin is probably going to enter an upturn on account of the ongoing spike in the “BTC changed hands” metric. Spikes in BTC changing hands on-chain regularly goes before an inversion in value activity, he included.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by the level at 1.09% on Tuesday. Mostly changing a 4.57% slide from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at $10,549.0.

It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin tumbled to an early morning intraday low $10,377.0 before making a move. Avoiding the primary significant help level at $10,171, Bitcoin rose to a late intraday high to the level of $10,597.0.

Avoiding the mark concerning the main significant obstruction level at $10,850, Bitcoin moved back to wrap up the day at sub-$10,550 levels. The close term bullish pattern stayed unblemished, upheld by the most recent pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to frame a close term bearish pattern.

However, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.02% to $10,549.6. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low $10,540.0 before ascending to a high $10,555.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and opposition levels untested at an early stage. Somewhere else, it was a quiet beginning to the day. Ethereum is traded at the level (- 0.27%) and Ripple’s XRP (- 0.03%) battled at an early stage. It was a bullish beginning for the remainder of the majors, nonetheless.

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https://xtreamforex.com/covid-19-outbreaks-seems/

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Crypto Daily Bitcoin Breaks back at the Level $10,400 pack with Support

Crypto Daily Bitcoin Breaks back at the Level $10,400 pack with Support

 

Let’s talk about the cryptos there is the mix start day of the majors. A bitcoin going back and breaks back through the level at $10,400 that provide the pack with the support.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slipped by 2.42% on Tuesday. Reversing a 1.18% gain from Monday, Bitcoin ended the day at the level of $10,148.0.

Bitcoin rose to an early morning intraday high at the level of $10,464.0 before hitting reverse.

Missing the mark regarding the principal significant opposition level at $10,579, Bitcoin slid to a late intraday low $9,882.4.

Bitcoin fell through the main significant help level at $10,065 recuperating to wrap up the day at $10,100 levels.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$10,000. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to frame a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin would need to travel through the $10,165 turn level to help a run at the principal significant obstruction level at $10,447.

Backing from the more extensive market would be required, notwithstanding, for Bitcoin to crush spirit through to $10,400 levels.

Notwithstanding an all-inclusive crypto rally, the principal significant obstruction level and Tuesday’s high $10,464.0 would almost certainly trim any upside.

In case of a crypto breakout, Bitcoin could test obstruction at $10,700 before any pullback. The second significant opposition level sits at $10,746.

The inability to travel through the $10,165 rotate would bring the primary significant help level at $9,866 into play.

Blocking another all-inclusive crypto auction, in any case, Bitcoin should avoid the subsequent significant help level at $9,583.

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Bitcoin Goes Remain Dormant and Provide Ethereum Large Returns

Bitcoin Goes Remain Dormant and Provide Ethereum Large Returns

 

The Bitcoin continues to go uptrend to the resistance level of $12,000 in another month. This vital value obstacle dismissed BTC’s upward value activity a few times all through August, while the $11,000 uphold level held falling costs under control. The quality of every one of these critical levels was developed over the previous month, with no of them breaking.

The Bitcoin has seems at the great boon. The bitcoin price surged at the level of $11,351 that will go yearly high at the point of $12,135.

The Bitcoin has seems at the great boon. The bitcoin price surged at the level of $11,351 that will go yearly high at the point of $12,135. It will quickly become evident to solve all the problems. Apart from these, the cryptocurrency will seems 13% nosedive in the few minutes after reaching the falls on the monthly low of the $10,546.15.

The BTC began to consolidate to the narrow range for the trading between the overhead resistance and the support level that was mentioned previously.

Moreover, the bitcoin was seemed yearly high at the level of $12,500 in August with the 17th upswing that will see the retrace price below the $12,500 to the dormant price action to the Bollinger bands on the daily hour chart.

Surely, the bellwether cryptocurrency price moved back to the $11,000 uphold level by August 25th to then bounce back towards $12,000 as August reached a conclusion. Bitcoin had the option to close the month at $11,655, giving business specialists a month to month return of 2.67%.

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Gold Price

Bitcoin Price Suddenly Going Up and Hits Gold All the Time High

Bitcoin Price Suddenly Going Up and Hits Gold All the Time High

 

The price of the Bitcoin has shot up high more than 15 percent in recent days and it will finally break the level above $10,000.

The cryptocurrency is suddenly reached above the $11,000 on Tuesday that dipped back down to around $10,800.

“Bitcoin is right now understanding its reputation for being a type of computerized gold. Up to this point, gold has been known as an ultimate place of refuge resource, however, bitcoin – which shares its key characteristics of being a store of significant worth and shortage  might thump gold from its since quite a while ago held situation later on as the world turns out to be permanently tech-driven.”

It was the mixed start day for the BItcoin and the cryptocurrency market. It will support the breakout to move through the level at $11,500.

A mixed beginning to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high at the level of $11,778.0 before hitting reverse.

Avoiding the mark regarding the main significant opposition level at $11,875, Bitcoin slid to a late evening intraday low to the point at  $11,137.0.

Bitcoin fell during that time’s significant help levels before a short at the to $11,400 level.

The late recovery saw Bitcoin move back through the third significant help level at $11,256 to decrease the shortage on the day.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent travel through to $12,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to frame a close term bearish pattern.

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Bitcoin, Cardano’s and Ethereum Weekly Technical Analysis

Bitcoin, Cardano’s and Ethereum Weekly Technical Analysis!!!

 

It will be a mixed start to the day for the major cryptocurrencies.  It will go choppy to the Sunday session high with the failure of the break backs to test the majors.

Bitcoin will be rose by 2.50% at the end of the weekend on 12th July that will go reversing at the 1.46% loss according to the previous week. The bitcoin will be ended at $9,497.2.

 If we see the start of the week pattern of the Bitcoin it has on the bullish trend and the rose from the  Monday low at level $9,075.8 that will go high on the Wednesday at $9,480.0.

The resistance level to the bitcoin will be fell back to the level at $9,133 before going to adapt the support level. It will recover to the $9,300 levels yesterday seems green to close out the week.

Cardano’s ADA will be rallied at 29.24% on the previously at the end of the week. In the previous week, the Cardano is a breakout at the level 22.3% ended to the week at $0.12694.Moreover, Cardano ADA broke the level through the FIB level at 23.6% of $0.1125 to hit the $0.14 for the time since August 2018.

Ethereum was rose by the level by 1.52% on Sunday that was reversing the decline on Saturday with 0.87% and the Ethereum will be ended the week up by the 6.67% to $242.81.

It will rise early in the morning at the high level of $241.59 before you easily go back.

Ethereum was broke the first major resistance level at $241.36 and the second major resistance level at $243.54.

The major support level for the Ethereum will befall at the level of $237.21 before going to find the support.

If we predict the future analysis the Ethereum will need to avoid the fall through the $241 pivot with the support with the major resistance level at $245.64.

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