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EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens

EUR/USD Drops Toward 1.1700 as US Dollar Strengthens; FOMC Minutes in Spotlight

The EUR/USD pair slid to around 1.1705 during Wednesday’s Asian session, weighed down by renewed strength in the US Dollar. The Euro came under pressure following fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump, which unsettled global markets and added to investor caution. 

Trump reignited global trade concerns by proposing a 50% tariff on copper imports and hinted at possible duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. While he mentioned that negotiations with both the European Union and China are progressing well, he also warned that a tariff notice to the EU could be issued within days. This uncertainty has dented risk sentiment, putting the Euro under additional stress. 

Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, due later today. Market participants are hoping for more clarity on the Fed’s rate path, especially amid growing expectations of monetary easing. 

At its June meeting, the Fed held interest rates steady, maintaining the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%—a level unchanged since December. However, markets are now pricing in a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end, potentially beginning as early as October. 

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Australian Dollar Gains as Risk Sentiment Improves, RBA Decision in Focus

Australian Dollar Rises Amid Risk-On Sentiment, Focus Shifts to RBA Rate Decision

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its third straight session of gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following US President Donald Trump’s move to postpone the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. A weaker USD following disappointing US retail sales data has further supported the AUD/USD pair, reigniting speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates later this year despite persistent inflation concerns.

Yet, the AUD’s gains could be capped before the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy announcement on Tuesday, as mounting speculation of a cut in interest rates deters sentiment. The RBA is widely expected to lower its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10%, marking the first rate reduction in four years.

US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Lower Treasury Yields

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down for the third consecutive session, bogged down by weaker US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the DXY is trading around 106.70, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields at 4.26% and 4.47%, respectively.

Statistics released by the US Census Bureau on Friday indicated that US Retail Sales decreased 0.9% in January, a reversal from a revised 0.7% rise in December (earlier reported as 0.4%). The decrease was deeper than the market expectation of a 0.1% decline.

Conversely, Core PPI inflation in the US increased to 3.6% YoY in January, above expectations of 3.3%, though marginally less than the revised 3.7% (initially published as 3.5%). This has consolidated expectations that the Fed will push rate cuts until the second part of the year.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% YoY in January, beating expectations of 2.9%, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) went up to 3.3% from 3.2%, beating expectations of 3.1%. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose 0.5% in January compared to 0.4% in December, with core CPI rising to 0.4% from 0.2% in the same period.

Fed Officials Signal a Cautious Approach to Rate Cuts

In his semi-annual report to Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that policymakers “do not need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates, citing a strong labor market and robust economic growth. Powell also warned that Trump’s tariff policies could exert upward pressure on inflation, making it harder for the central bank to lower rates.

A Reuters poll of economists now indicates the Fed will wait until next quarter to cut rates, citing ongoing inflationary concerns. Although previously, some analysts anticipated a March rate cut; the majority now sees at least one rate cut by June, but opinions remain divided.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack echoed this sentiment, saying that maintaining rates at current levels for a long time is probably the right thing to do. Hammack added that a patient strategy will enable the Fed to evaluate economic conditions before altering policy.

Australian Dollar Targets Upper Range Near 0.6400

The AUD/USD currency pair quotes at 0.6360 on Monday, with an uptrend in a rising channel formation. This is indicative of a bullish market inclination, which is also complemented by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 50.

On the upside, the pair could test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.6380, followed by the psychological level of 0.6400.

Major levels of support are the nine-day EMA at 0.6310, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6294. A fall below these levels may erode short-term momentum, possibly pulling the pair down to the lower boundary of the rising channel at 0.6270.

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Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Jobless Claims

Australian Dollar Declines as US Dollar Holds Gains Ahead of Jobless Claims

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday as trade balance data came in below average than expected. Furthermore, risk-off sentiment, fueled by rising US-China trade tensions, weighs on the AUD/USD.

In December, Australia’s trade surplus fell to $5,085 million, falling short of the 7,000 million anticipated and down from $6,792 million the previous year. While exports increased by 1.1% month on month, this was a decrease from November’s 4.2% increase, while imports increased by 5.9% month on month, much more than the previous 1.4% gain.

US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Australian Dollar

Investors are still focused on the current trade stagnation between the United States and China, Australia’s top trading partner. China replied to the United States’ new 10% tax, which went into force on Tuesday, causing global market concern. Regarding the situation, President Trump announced on Monday that he intends to engage with China within the next 24 hours. However, he cautioned that failure to achieve an agreement might result in “very, very substantial” tariffs.

Meanwhile, China’s Commerce Ministry imposed a 15% tax on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, as well as an additional 10% levy on crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos. As a countermeasure, China has implemented export limits on important minerals such as tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, and molybdenum, citing national security concerns.

Amid escalating trade tensions, the Financial Times writes that Chinese firms are quickening preparations to relocate production overseas, mainly to the Middle East, in order to reduce tariff impacts. Some exporters are also considering passing on prices to US consumers or expanding into new markets.

US Dollar Holds Firm Amid Mixed Economic Data

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies, remains stable near 107.50, putting further downward pressure on the AUD/USD. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a weaker-than-expected US Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January, below the market forecast of 54.3.

Investors now focus on Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a key economic indicator that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.

The dollar fell on Wednesday, following a poor US Services PMI report. The ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, missing the market forecast of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are anticipating Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Pulls Back From 0.6300, Eyes Key Support

The AUD/USD pair hovers near 0.6280 on Thursday, retreating from the 0.6300 level. However, sustained trading above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) suggests short-term bullish momentum remains intact. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also holding above 50, reinforcing the bullish bias.

On the upside, the pair might target 0.6330, its seven-week high from January 24.

Immediate support comes from the nine-day EMA near 0.6254, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6249.

A breach below these levels might weaken the bullish structure, potentially sending the pair below 0.6087, its lowest level since April 2020, which was recorded on February 3.

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Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

Australian Dollar Slips as US Tariffs on China Take Effect

The Australian Dollar (AUD) falls for the seventh consecutive day as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens following President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Market volatility remains high as investors monitor the continuing US-China trade talks. Trump signaled he may speak with Chinese officials within the next 24 hours, warning that if a deal isn’t reached, tariffs on China will be “very, very substantial.”

Trump also announced a 30-day tariff relief for Mexico and Canada after their nations agreed to send 10,000 troops to the US border to battle drug trafficking. This move follows the introduction of 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods just two days before.

Chinese Exporters Seek Alternatives

According to the Financial Times, Chinese manufacturers are speeding up plans to transfer production offshore in reaction to US tariffs. Some companies are considering relocating to regions such as the Middle East, while others are looking into passing costs on to US customers or entering new markets.

RBA Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on AUD

The AUD faces additional pressure amid growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut rates in February. The RBA has maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since November 2023, stressing that inflation must return to its 2%-3% target range before easing policy.

Analysts at Westpac continue to forecast 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, with the market pricing in a more conservative outlook. ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and National Australia Bank (NAB) all anticipate a 25-basis-point (bps) cut in February, with NAB recently revising its forecast forward from May.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Developments

The US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilizes around 108.70 after erasing gains from the previous session. Recent US economic data support the greenback, with ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, exceeding expectations of 49.8.

Inflation indicators remain in focus as the Fed’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 0.3% MoM in December, up from 0.1% in November. Annual PCE inflation increased to 2.6%, while core PCE held steady at 2.8% YoY for the third straight month.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, highlighted that further policy adjustments would be required if there was clear evidence of inflation advance or labor market weakness. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently argued for new uniform taxes on US imports, beginning at 2.5% and progressively increasing—a departure from his previous stance that tariffs cause inflation.

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

AUD/USD trades around 0.6210 on Tuesday, remaining within a descending channel pattern on the daily chart, signaling a bearish bias. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recovering toward the 50 level, suggesting weakening downside momentum. A breakout above the channel, combined with an RSI move above 50, could indicate a shift toward a bullish outlook.

On the downside, the pair may test the descending channel’s lower boundary near 0.6150. A break below this level could drive AUD/USD toward 0.6087, its lowest point since April 2020.

AUD/USD is currently testing its initial resistance, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6225, which aligns with the channel’s upper limit. A decisive move over this level could fuel bullish optimism.

 

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Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum

Japanese Yen Maintains Strong Bullish Momentum; USD/JPY Struggles Below 154.50

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen in early European trading on Thursday, pushing USD/JPY further below 154.50 and closer to its one-month low from earlier this week. Market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates again by year-end continue to support the JPY. Additionally, a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields, narrowing the US-Japan yield differential, has further boosted demand for the lower-yielding Yen.

However, concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies may limit aggressive JPY buying. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish pause on Wednesday has bolstered the US Dollar (USD), which could provide some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders are now looking ahead to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which may increase market volatility and drive further demand for the safe-haven Yen. Additionally, the Advance US Q4 GDP report could introduce short-term trading opportunities.

JPY Gains on Hawkish BoJ Sentiment Amid Market Uncertainty

  • Minutes from the BoJ’s December meeting, released Wednesday, indicated discussions on using neutral interest rate estimates to guide future rate hikes.
  • Former BoJ board member Makoto Sakurai stated on Tuesday that steady rate increases remain feasible due to rising wages, sustained inflation, and strong economic growth.
  • The Federal Reserve, as expected, held rates steady after its two-day meeting and signaled no immediate plans for rate cuts.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a patient stance, stating there is no urgency to adjust policy and reaffirming that rates will stay elevated amid concerns over Trump’s trade policies, which could fuel inflation.
  • The 10-year US Treasury yield has struggled to sustain gains post-FOMC due to uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s economic policies.
  • Reports from Asahi newspaper indicate that Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is finalizing plans for a February 7 meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington.
  • The ECB’s policy decision later today is expected to introduce further volatility, alongside the Advance US Q4 GDP print.

USD/JPY at Risk of Retesting Monthly Lows Near 153.70

The USD/JPY pair faced renewed selling pressure near the 156.00 level, breaking below the key 155.00 psychological mark, confirming a multi-month ascending channel breakdown. Momentum indicators on the daily chart suggest continued downside movement, making a retest of the 153.70 region—a multi-week low touched on Monday—a strong possibility.

Key resistance levels for a rebound:

  • 155.00 round figure
  • 155.35-155.40 region
  • 156.00 psychological level

Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling pressure near these levels. A sustained break above 156.25 could trigger short-covering, potentially lifting USD/JPY toward 156.70-156.75, with further resistance at 157.00 and 157.60.

For now, the bias remains bearish, with further losses expected if the pair stays below 154.00. Traders will closely watch US data and global central bank policy updates for the next directional move.

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Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold Price Retreats from Multi-Month High Amid USD Recovery

Gold price (XAU/USD) faces selling pressure at the beginning of the week, pulling back from its highest level since late October, near the $2,786 mark touched on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) has staged a modest recovery following its worst weekly performance since November 2023, which has weighed on the precious metal. However, the broader market dynamics remain supportive of a bullish outlook, suggesting potential dip-buying opportunities at lower price levels.

Market Sentiment Dampened by Trade Tensions and Fed Speculation

Risk sentiment has deteriorated due to US President Donald Trump’s recent decision to impose tariffs on all imports from Colombia, reigniting fears of a trade war. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates twice by year-end, combined with a flight to safe-haven assets, have triggered a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields. This decline could limit aggressive gains in the USD, potentially cushioning the downside for gold, a non-yielding asset.

Gold Under Pressure from USD Recovery, but Downside Remains Limited

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of currencies, rose nearly 0.25% on Monday, driven by revived concerns over US trade policies. President Trump ordered 25% emergency tariffs on all Colombian imports following the country’s refusal to accept deported migrants from the US, with a threat to raise tariffs to 50% next week. Moreover, reports suggest that Trump’s advisors are considering imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada starting February 1.

In a recent update, the White House confirmed that Colombia has agreed to Trump’s demands, including the unrestricted acceptance of deported individuals. Meanwhile, Trump has reiterated his call for immediate interest rate cuts, fueling speculation of further easing by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The resulting decline in US Treasury yields may act as a headwind for the USD, potentially limiting the extent of gold’s pullback.

Traders Eye Economic Data for Further Clues

Market participants will turn their focus to key US economic data, including Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, for fresh impetus during the US trading session.

Gold Price Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

Gold’s recent decline may attract dip-buying near the $2,736 support zone, as the technical setup remains bullish. Any further slide below the $2,750-2,748 range could find solid support near $2,736, with additional key levels at $2,725-2,720. A break below $2,720 could trigger technical selling, pushing prices toward the $2,665-2,662 zone.

On the upside, a sustained move above the $2,772-2,773 resistance could open the door for a retest of the recent peak near $2,786. Further buying momentum beyond the $2,800 psychological level could signal a renewed bullish phase, extending the upward trend

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Gold Price Holds Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold Price Remains Defensive Below Multi-Month High Amid Risk-On Sentiment

Gold price (XAU/USD) came under selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday, retreating from the multi-month high of $2,763–$2,764 touched the previous day. This decline halts a three-day winning streak. The US Dollar (USD) gained some strength from its recovery off a monthly low, supported by a rebound in US Treasury bond yields, and the upbeat sentiment in equity markets further dampened demand for the safe-haven metal.

Signs of easing inflation in the US have fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might cut interest rates twice this year, creating a potential headwind for US bond yields and the USD. However, ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which could increase trade tensions and market volatility, may help limit the downside for gold prices. Traders may remain cautious and wait for sustained selling pressure to confirm that the one-month uptrend has ended.

Risk-On Mood and Modest USD Rebound Cap Gold Gains

The USD steadied above its recent lows amid recovering Treasury yields, adding pressure to gold prices. In addition, easing geopolitical tensions and a lack of concrete details regarding Trump’s tariff policies have maintained a risk-on sentiment, further undermining gold’s appeal.

While Trump’s proposed tariff policies are considered inflationary, which could prompt the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, markets are still pricing in at least two Fed rate cuts this year. This outlook may limit the upside for US bond yields and the USD, potentially supporting gold in the near term.

Investors are eyeing Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum for more clarity on tariffs, alongside the release of US Weekly Jobless Claims, which could influence XAU/USD prices. Upcoming central bank rate decisions, including the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday and next week’s announcements from the Fed and the European Central Bank, could inject volatility into the market and impact gold prices.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Key Support Levels:

  • Immediate support is seen near the $2,725–$2,720 zone, a former resistance-turned-support level.
  • Further declines could target the $2,700 mark, with a decisive break paving the way for a move toward the $2,665–$2,662 region.
  • The $2,627–$2,622 confluence, which includes the 100-day EMA and a short-term ascending trendline, will act as a critical pivot point for short-term traders.

Key Resistance Levels:

  • The recent high near $2,763–$2,764 offers the first resistance level.
  • A break above this zone could see gold prices challenge the all-time high around $2,790, reached in October.
  • The $2,800 mark is the next significant resistance, and a break above it would signal a continuation of the well-established uptrend over the past month.

Outlook:

Gold prices remain influenced by risk sentiment, central bank policy expectations, and USD movements. While near-term bearish factors may limit gains, uncertainty around US tariff policies and inflation trends could provide support, making any dips near key technical levels potential opportunities for dip-buying. Traders will remain focused on upcoming economic data and central bank decisions for further direction.

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WTI Inches Higher to $70.50 Amid US Oil Stock Decline

WTI Inches Higher to $70.50 Amid US Oil Stock Decline

WTI Inches Higher to $70.50 Amid US Oil Stock Decline

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices continue to rise for the second consecutive day, trading around $70.40 per barrel during Friday’s Asian session. The upward momentum in oil prices is primarily driven by an unexpected drop in US crude oil inventories.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude oil stocks fell by 2.192 million barrels for the week ending October 11, defying market expectations of a 2.3 million barrel increase. This contrasts with the previous week’s significant build of 5.81 million barrels, adding bullish sentiment to the oil market.

In addition to the inventory drawdown, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are supporting oil prices. Israel’s military confirmed the death of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, during an operation in southern Gaza. This development has heightened concerns of escalating conflict in the region, which could disrupt global oil supply chains.

However, the potential upside for WTI prices may be capped by several factors. The EIA also reported that US crude oil production hit a record high of 13.5 million barrels per day last week, adding supply-side pressure. Furthermore, Libya’s oil production has resumed, and OPEC+ plans to gradually unwind production cuts by 2025, according to Reuters.

Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report on Tuesday forecasting a significant oil surplus in 2024. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 860,000 barrels per day next year, but this represents a downward revision of 40,000 barrels per day from earlier forecasts. The IEA attributed this adjustment to slower economic growth in China and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, which are starting to reshape oil demand in the world’s largest oil importer.

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Japan Stocks Rise as Nikkei 225 Climbs 2.01% at Close

Japan Stocks Climb as Nikkei 225 Gains 2.01% at Close

Japan Stocks Climb as Nikkei 225 Gains 2.01% at Close

Japanese stocks ended higher on Thursday, led by strong performances in the Mining, Chemical, Petroleum & Plastic, and Real Estate sectors. The Nikkei 225 index surged by 2.01%, marking a strong session.

Top performers of the day included M3 Inc. (TYO:2413), which saw an impressive 9.93% rise, adding 145.00 points to close at 1,605.00. Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma Co., Ltd. (TYO:4506) followed with an 8.91% gain, closing at 648.00, and Ajinomoto Co., Inc. (TYO:2802) rose 5.58%, finishing at 5,786.00.

On the downside, Pacific Metals Co., Ltd. (TYO:5541) was the worst performer, dropping 1.73% to close at 1,423.00. Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. (TYO:9843) declined by 1.59%, ending at 20,715.00, and Japan Exchange Group Inc. (TYO:8697) fell 1.44% to 1,877.00.

Overall, rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the Tokyo Stock Exchange by 2,540 to 1,052, with 260 shares unchanged.

The Nikkei Volatility Index, which tracks the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, dropped by 12.33% to 24.75, signaling lower market uncertainty.

In commodities, crude oil for November delivery climbed 1.53% to $71.17 per barrel, while Brent oil for December delivery increased by 1.35% to $74.90 per barrel. Gold futures for December delivery also rose 0.21%, reaching $2,675.20 per ounce.

In currency markets, USD/JPY rose 0.18% to 146.72, while EUR/JPY edged up 0.03% to 161.83. The US Dollar Index Futures also gained 0.20%, reaching 101.63.

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Intel Tops Dow Jones on $5 Billion Apollo Investment Speculation

Intel Leads Dow Jones as Top Gainer Amid $5 Billion Apollo Investment Rumors

Intel Leads Dow Jones as Top Gainer Amid $5 Billion Apollo Investment Rumors

Intel (INTC) emerged as the top performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on Monday, outperforming major companies like Visa (V), Walmart (WMT), and Boeing (BA). The semiconductor giant’s shares surged by 3.3% on reports that Apollo Global Management is in discussions to invest $5 billion in the company.

Despite the overall modest market performance— the Dow Jones closed up by 0.15%, comparable to the NASDAQ but trailing the S&P 500—Intel’s stock benefitted from this potential infusion of capital.

Intel Stock News

According to a Bloomberg report from Sunday, Apollo, a leading alternative asset manager, has proposed a $5 billion investment in Intel, which Intel’s management is currently considering. This follows news from last Friday that Qualcomm (QCOM) may be exploring the possibility of acquiring Intel, a move that would mark one of the largest mergers in the semiconductor industry.

Intel, despite its value having fallen by over 50% year-to-date, still boasts a market cap of around $90 billion, while Qualcomm’s valuation is just under $200 billion. A combination of the two companies would create the largest semiconductor firm globally. However, Stifel analyst Ruben Roy quickly downplayed the likelihood of such a deal, citing regulatory hurdles that have derailed similar large-scale acquisitions in the past, such as Nvidia’s (NVDA) failed bid to acquire ARM Holdings and Broadcom’s (AVGO) unsuccessful attempt to buy Qualcomm.

Broadcom had also reportedly considered acquiring Intel but, according to insiders, decided not to move forward with a proposal over the weekend.

Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri expressed skepticism about Qualcomm receiving regulatory approval for the deal, especially given China’s influence in approving major tech mergers: “The speculated QCOM+Intel deal is unlikely to receive China regulatory approval in our view, given the recent M&A experience in the industry,” Pajjuri noted.

Additionally, Intel has been evaluating the sale of its Altera unit, which produces programmable chips. Analysts estimate that the division alone could be worth $22 billion, while other parts of Intel’s business could fetch valuations up to $140 billion in the capital markets.

Intel Stock Forecast

Intel shares have shown some positive movement, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, but the stock has yet to see significant gains. Analysts believe that Intel needs to reclaim the $24.90 support level to attract more bullish interest.

Despite a poor balance sheet, analysts argue that Intel’s parts are worth more than the company as a whole. If acquisition rumors continue to gain momentum, Intel’s stock could rise back toward the $30 range.

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Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits Fed Cues for Next Move

Gold Price Holds Steady Near Record High, Awaits Fed Cues for Next Move

Gold price (XAU/USD) continues its sideways consolidation for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, remaining in a narrow range around the $2,500 psychological level as the European session approaches. A generally positive sentiment across global equity markets is acting as a headwind for the safe-haven metal, while a modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD) from its lowest level since January is also capping gains.

Traders seem hesitant to make new bets on Gold’s direction until they receive more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut trajectory. The focus is now on the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Meanwhile, dovish expectations for the Fed, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks, could continue to support XAU/USD and limit any downside.

Market Overview: Gold Price Bulls Await Fed Signals

Gold price is extending its consolidative move near record highs, with traders stepping back to await further signals from the Federal Reserve before positioning for the next significant move. The upcoming FOMC minutes and Powell’s speech are expected to offer hints about the possibility of a larger rate cut in September.

Recent strong US Retail Sales data have tempered fears of a recession, leading market participants to scale back expectations for aggressive policy easing. However, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool still suggests that the Fed may begin its easing cycle in September, with expectations of more than a 200 basis point reduction by the end of 2025.

Key Fed officials, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, have recently commented on the balance of risks and the need for cautious policy adjustments, reflecting ongoing concerns about the US economy.

Geopolitical Updates and Technical Analysis

On the geopolitical front, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated that progress is being made in negotiations to resolve disagreements in the Middle East, which could reduce tensions and boost risk appetite among investors.

From a technical perspective, Gold’s current range-bound movement is likely a bullish consolidation before another leg higher. The constructive outlook is supported by daily chart oscillators that remain in positive territory, though not yet overbought. Bulls are waiting for a breakout above Friday’s all-time high near the $2,509-2,510 area to confirm further gains.

On the downside, immediate support is seen around the $2,472-2,470 resistance-turned-support level. Any decline below this could attract fresh buyers, with key support at $2,448-2,446. A break below this level could lead to a deeper correction, potentially pushing prices towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $2,392.

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Gold Price Awaiting US Macro Data for Potential Gains

Gold Price Awaiting US Macro Data for Potential Gains

Gold Price Awaiting US Macro Data for Potential Gains

Gold prices (XAU/USD) saw a decline on Wednesday as investors adjusted their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy after the release of US consumer inflation data. However, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, expectations of the Fed initiating a rate-cutting cycle soon, and a subdued US Dollar (USD) helped gold regain positive momentum on Thursday.

Despite reduced expectations for a 50 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut in September leading to a modest recovery in US Treasury yields, which could limit aggressive bullish positioning on non-yielding gold, the overall market environment still supports the potential for further gains. Additionally, a generally positive tone in equity markets could pose a challenge to the safe-haven metal. Nonetheless, the fundamental backdrop remains favorable for gold ahead of key US macroeconomic data scheduled for release later on Thursday.

Market Movers: Gold Price Supported by Geopolitical Risk and Weak USD Demand

On Wednesday, data showed that US consumer prices increased as expected in July, dampening hopes for a significant rate cut by the Fed in September. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a moderate 0.2% rise in headline CPI for July, following a 0.1% decline the previous month. The annual CPI increase fell below 3% for the first time in nearly three and a half years, indicating ongoing progress toward the Fed’s inflation targets.

Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also increased by 0.2% in July, easing to 3.2% year-on-year from 3.3% in June. As a result, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now shows a 36% probability of a 50 bps rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, down from 50% before the CPI data. This led to a late recovery in US Treasury yields, which attracted some buying interest in the USD and weighed on gold.

Despite this, ongoing geopolitical tensions provide some support for gold. Mediators are aiming to initiate ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas amid the potential threat of an imminent Iranian attack on Israel.

Traders are now focusing on upcoming US economic reports, including Retail Sales, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and regional manufacturing indices, for short-term trading opportunities.

Technical Outlook: Gold Price Poised for Further Gains Above $2,470 Resistance

Technically, the recent swing low around the $2,438 level is acting as immediate support, followed by the $2,424 area, which was the weekly low on Monday. Continued selling pressure could push gold below the $2,400 mark, targeting the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the $2,380 zone. A decisive break below this level could expose the 100-day SMA near the $2,360 region, potentially triggering further bearish momentum.

However, daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, indicating potential for additional near-term gains. Any further upward movement is likely to encounter resistance around the $2,471-$2,472 region, followed by the $2,483-$2,484 area, which marks the all-time high reached in July. A sustained rise beyond the $2,500 psychological mark would confirm a breakout from the one-month-old trading range and set the stage for further appreciation.

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Asian Shares Rise, Kiwi Slumps as New Zealand

Asian Shares Rise, Kiwi Slumps as New Zealand Cuts Rates

Asian Shares Rise, Kiwi Slumps as New Zealand Cuts Rates

Asian shares climbed on Wednesday following softer-than-expected U.S. producer price data, which bolstered hopes for mild consumer price inflation. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar (kiwi) tumbled after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rates for the first time since early 2020.

European stock futures pointed to a higher opening, with data showing that British inflation in July rose less than anticipated. EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 0.5%, and FTSE futures rose 0.6%. U.S. equity futures remained flat.

In Japan, the announcement that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida would step down as ruling party leader in September added to the busy news flow in Asia. His tenure has been marked by rising prices and political scandals. Following the news, the Japanese yen dipped 0.2%, while the Nikkei index rose 0.6%, recovering from last week’s sharp selloff.

The New Zealand dollar slumped by 1.1% after the RBNZ cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% and signaled further easing. This move was earlier than the bank’s own projections. Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ, commented, “The RBNZ faced a tricky decision today – turning points are always difficult. But the Committee decided they had sufficient confidence in the inflation outlook to start easing monetary conditions.” ANZ has now penciled in a series of 25 basis point cuts, potentially bringing rates down to 3.5%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.4%, with most markets up except China, where both Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and mainland blue chips fell 0.5%.

Wall Street saw a strong rebound after U.S. producer price data indicated a slower rise than expected in July, suggesting continued moderation in inflation. This prompted markets to slightly increase the odds of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, from 50% to 53%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, to a 0.14% rise in July, down from the previous estimate of 0.17%. Investors are now keenly awaiting consumer price data for July, with economists expecting 0.2% increases in both the headline and core figures, and a slight slowdown in the annual core inflation rate to 3.2%.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, noted, “Risk will find buyers if additional implied rate cuts are driven by a reduced inflation dynamic. However, the opposite is true if any additional rate cuts are driven by weaker growth or poor labor market readings – this week’s U.S. retail sales report could therefore be influential on that thesis.”

U.S. bonds experienced solid buying overnight, with two-year yields falling to 3.9392% and ten-year Treasury yields holding at 3.8465% after a 5 basis point drop.

The U.S. dollar was slightly lower due to falling bond yields, edging up 0.1% to 102.70 against major peers after losing 0.5% overnight. The euro strengthened 0.6% overnight, trading near $1.0988, close to a significant resistance level of $1.1.

In commodities, crude oil prices recovered some of the previous day’s losses, with Brent crude futures rising 0.7% to $81.23 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude up 0.7% to $78.93. Gold prices increased by 0.1%, reaching $2,461.72 an ounce.

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WTI Reclaims $81.50 on Saudi Arabia, Russia Supply Tightening

WTI Reclaims $81.50 on Saudi Arabia, Russia Supply Tightening

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is currently experiencing a notable rebound, with prices hovering around $81.58. This is a substantial recovery from the weekly low of $74.45 registered last Thursday. The driving force behind this upward trend is primarily the strategic decisions made by Saudi Arabia and Russia regarding their respective oil outputs.

In an attempt to balance the global oil market, Saudi Arabia has opted to extend its voluntary cutback in oil production, retaining a reduced output of one million barrels per day through to September. In parallel, Russia has signaled its intent to curtail its oil exports by an estimated 300,000 barrels per day within the same period.

These calculated moves have already begun to reverberate across the global oil market. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a record drop of 17 million barrels in crude oil inventories. This dramatic decrease is largely due to increased refinery activity and robust crude export levels. Corroborating this trend, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) also indicated a significant reduction in US crude oil stockpiles.

As these developments unfold, market participants are keeping a close watch on the imminent release of US wage inflation and employment data. These key economic indicators, due for release on Friday, could offer valuable insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory for the remainder of the year. A hike in interest rates, for instance, could potentially slow down economic activity and reduce oil demand.

On a positive note, China’s Caixin Services PMI reported a rise to 54.1 in July, signaling a rebound in economic activity. Given China’s position as one of the world’s largest oil consumers, this improvement in economic conditions could provide a boost to WTI prices.

In the days ahead, the focus of the market will shift to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Expected to show an increase of roughly 180,000 jobs in July, this report carries considerable influence and could dictate trading opportunities around the WTI price.

In conclusion, the convergence of various factors – including the strategic output cuts by major oil producers, the release of pivotal economic data, and shifts in global demand patterns – promises to create an intriguing narrative in the WTI market. Investors and traders alike will be keenly observing these developments and their potential impact on oil prices.

 

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Worst Quarter for Metals Cap since 2008 due to Global Recession

Worst Quarter for Metals Cap since 2008 due to Global Recession

Base metals experienced their greatest quarterly decline since the global financial crisis of 2008 as worries about a worldwide recession increased and China’s economy very slowly recovered. Although the decrease has been accentuated by price spikes that month as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the London Metal Exchange Index has fallen 25% since the end of March. Tin has fared the worst, falling 38%, followed by a 31% decline in aluminium and a 20% decline in copper. Since the beginning of the epidemic, it was the entire index’s first quarterly decrease.

According to ED&F Man analyst Edward Meir’s metals research, “markets have been battered by both growth and inflation worries for some time now and are not getting any relief from G-7 central bankers, the majority of which are set on rising interest rates further.” As virus controls were relaxed, an indicator of factory activity in China increased in June for the first time since February. Although there was some recovery, the demand for metals is still being negatively impacted by a sluggish real estate market. Despite a reduction of quarantine regulations, the Covid Zero policy is still in place, thus there is a persistent potential of more limitations if case numbers increase once more.

The market is still threatened by the impending possibility of a recession in the US and possibly elsewhere in the world. At the annual meeting of the European Central Bank in Portugal, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bankers cautioned that the globe is transitioning to a regime of greater inflation. As a result, US equity markets opened lower. Major economies are at the very least on the verge of a slowdown that will reduce construction activity. The economy may be in worse shape than previously anticipated, according to new US consumer expenditure data, which also point to further high inflation and interest rate increases.

In London, copper fell 1.7 percent on Thursday. Zinc, nickel, and aluminum all had losses of 1%, 4%, and 6%, respectively. The price of gold for August delivery decreased 0.6 percent to $1,807.30 in New York. The price of gold fell by 7.5% in the second quarter.

 

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Oil declines 2% as fuel supplies and output rise in U.S.A

Oil declines 2% as fuel supplies and output rise in U.S.A

On Wednesday, oil prices fell by around 2% as concerns about a shortage of crude oil were somewhat offset by an increase in gasoline and distillate stocks in the United States and concerns about weaker global economic growth. Brent futures for August delivery decreased $1.72 or 1.5% to close at $116.26 per barrel. The more active September contract, which is due to expire on Thursday, was down $1.35 to $112.45. West Texas Intermediate crude for the United States declined $1.98, or 1.8%, to settle at $109.78 in August.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), despite output reaching its highest level since April 2020 during the initial wave of the coronavirus pandemic, U.S. crude stockpiles decreased last week. As refiners increased production and reached 95 percent of capacity, the greatest level for this time of year in four years, fuel supplies increased.

“The market suffered as a result of the EIA report. The pressure is somewhat reduced by the increase in gasoline and distillate stockpiles, and the increase in U.S. output also contributed to the decrease in price “said John Kilduff, a partner at New York’s Again Capital LLC. U.S. gasoline and distillates futures fell by roughly 3% and 4% as a result of those unexpected inventory increases. Traders claimed that oil futures declined along with the cost of petrol.

The U.S. dollar’s increase to its highest level versus a basket of other currencies since reaching a 19-year high in mid-June added to the pressure on oil. Oil costs increase for buyers using other currencies when the dollar is stronger. On concerns about restricted supply brought on in part by Western sanctions on Russia, Brent and WTI rose by around 7% over the previous three sessions. According to a research note from JP Morgan, “we concluded there is no practical way to keep these barrels out of a market that was already very tight” given that about one-fifth of the world’s oil production capacity is currently subject to sanctions (Iran, Venezuela, Russia).

However, investors are also concerned that, as central banks raise interest rates to combat inflation, declining economies could reduce energy demand. According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the U.S. Federal Reserve will not allow the economy to enter a “higher inflation environment,” even if it means hiking interest rates to levels that endanger growth.

According to Ben van Beurden, chief executive officer of Shell PLC, uncertainty in the global oil and gas markets may last for some time because spare capacity is extremely low and demand is still recovering. On Wednesday, a series of two-day meetings between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, known as OPEC+, got underway. According to insiders, it appears doubtful that a significant shift in policy will be made this month.

Analysts worry that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) may not have sufficient spare capacity to replace lost Russian supply. This week, French President Emmanuel Macron claimed he had been informed that these companies would find it difficult to raise output even further. The UAE’s energy minister claimed that despite producing over 3 million barrels per day (bpd), the nation had some spare capacity above its 3.17 million bpd OPEC limit. Analysts also cautioned that political upheaval in Libya and Ecuador could further reduce supplies. The Black Sea Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in Russia will start loading oil again on July 1 from its second single mooring position.

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Over the past 24 hours, crude oil prices increased while gold prices decreased

Over the past 24 hours, crude oil prices increased while gold prices decreased

Over the past 24 hours, gold prices have been trending marginally lower as crude oil prices managed to end the day positively. An increase in the US dollar, which resulted from risk aversion as the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell more than 3 percent, put pressure on the anti-fiat yellow metal. For gold, it might have been a lot worse. The flight to safety caused Treasury yields to decline, which increased the appeal of XAU/USD.

In June, the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 98.7 from 100 expected. This represents a decline from 103.2 in May and a 16-month low. Concerns about inflation keep eroding Americans’ perceptions of the economy. Although respondents appeared to be planning to buy more durable products in the future, their desire for leisure (travel) fell with rising prices.

Despite the deteriorating mood, the price of crude oil managed to hold steady. An OPEC+ delegate reported that the oil-producing coalition fell 2.7 million barrels per day short of its output goal in May. This might be restricting supplies and giving WTI an upward push. However, rising concerns about a slowdown in global growth have made the situation for energy prices more difficult.

Commodities will be watching a flood of central bank speech during the next 24 hours. At the ECB forum in Sintra, a panel discussion will take place. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde are scheduled to speak. Market mood may suffer if authorities restate their hawkish viewpoints, thereby depressing the price of gold and crude oil.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Since May, the price of gold has been largely consolidating on the daily chart. Recent price movement is gradually dragging XAU/USD closer to the crucial support range of 1787 – 1810. The next test for the yellow metal will take place there. Technically speaking, the short-term 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages continue to indicate lower.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Prices for crude oil are still recovering from last week’s losses. Since then, a bullish Morning Star has been verified, providing a technical tilt to the higher. Additionally, prices are attempting to close back above a crucial upward trendline from December. Such a result would strengthen the case for WTI’s potential upside. If not, losses would resume and the price would drop to its low point from May at 98.22.

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UAE claims it has no spare capacity, oil prices jump by 1%

UAE claims it has no spare capacity, oil prices jump by 1%

The energy minister of the United Arab Emirates stated that the country is producing near capacity, defying expectations that this could assist boost supply in a tight market. As a result, oil prices increased by nearly 1% in early Asian trade on Tuesday. According to some estimates, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the only two OPEC members with extra capacity to make up for lost Russian supplies and subpar performance from other members.

At 00:28 GMT, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures increased $1.07, or 1%, to $110.64 a barrel, building on a prior session rise of 1.8 percent. The price of Brent oil LCOc1 futures increased $1.08, or 0.9 percent, to $116.17 a barrel, following a prior session increase of 1.7 percent.

“The market was helped by rumours of a seam of restricted supply. According to reports, the capacity limits for two key producers, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are being reached or will soon be reached “Tobin Gorey, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank, stated in a note. According to its quota of 3.168 million barrels per day (bpd) under the deal with OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, the UAE’s energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei stated on Monday that the country was producing at or close to its full capacity.

His statements corroborated those of French President Emmanuel Macron, who told US President Joe Biden outside the Group of Seven meeting that Saudi Arabia could only increase output by 150,000 bpd, well below its nominal spare capacity of about 2 million bpd, and that the UAE was operating at maximum capacity. Analysts also noted that political upheaval in Libya and Ecuador could further constrain supply. Libya’s National Oil Corp said on Monday that if oil terminal production and shipping don’t pick up within the next three days, it may be necessary to declare force majeure in the Gulf of Sirte region.

According to Ecuador’s Energy Ministry, due to anti-government demonstrations, the nation may fully halt oil production over the next two days. Before the demonstrations, the former OPEC nation was producing about 520,000 barrels per day. These elements highlight market shortages, which have sparked a market recovery this week and countered recession-related price pressure over the previous two weeks. For oil prices to significantly and steadily decline, more barrels must enter the market, according to managing partner Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.

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Gold prices increase as ban on new Russian imports

Gold prices increase as ban on new Russian imports

Gold prices rose on Monday as speculation grew that some Western countries could formally forbid the import of the metal from Russia in response to that country’s invasion of Ukraine. By 0231 GMT, spot gold increased 0.5 percent to $1,835.58 per ounce. At $1,836.30, U.S. gold futures were up 0.3 percent. The G-7’s import embargo on Russian gold appears to be giving early Asian markets some short-term assistance.

“However, in practise for the grouping, it is largely a rubber stamp exercise, and I do not expect this to reflect a structural change in the supply/demand outlook that will underpin pricing.” In an effort to put more pressure on Moscow and eliminate its sources of funding for the invasion of Ukraine, four of the wealthy Group of Seven (G-7) countries decided to outlaw the import of Russian gold on Sunday. According to Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, “the headline will be rapidly absorbed, and the market should return to its tug of war between higher front-end rates, negative for gold, and recession odds suggesting sooner rate reduction, positive for gold.”

Even as markets hailed economic data showing inflation expectations to be less worrying than initially thought, a couple of U.S. central bankers indicated on Friday they favoured future strong rate hikes to curb rapid price increases. Although gold is regarded as an inflation hedge, owning bullion, which pays no interest, has a higher opportunity cost as interest rates rise. Overall, gold is still stuck in the $1,780-$1,880 range that has been in place since early May. To change this dynamic, Halley added, the U.S. dollar must make a significant directional shift.

Spot silver increased 1.2 percent to $21.36 an ounce, platinum increased to $912 and palladium increased to $1,886.65 respectively.

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As the commodity markets drop, gold and silver decline

As the commodity markets drop, gold and silver decline

As the metals markets are participants in a general erosion of the commodity markets driven by crude oil, gold and silver prices are slightly lower in lunchtime U.S. trade on Thursday. Fears of a U.S. and worldwide economic crisis as well as predictions of decreased demand in the upcoming months, notably for metals, have negatively impacted the commodities markets. At $1,834.40, August gold futures were last down $3.80. Comex silver futures for July were last trading at $21.175 per ounce, down $0.251.

Overnight, the world’s stock markets were uneven, with European shares primarily declining and Asian equities primarily rising. At noon, U.S. market indices range from mixed to firmer. The market seems to have changed its attention from being more concerned with inflation to being more concerned with the U.S. and/or global economic recession. Worries that the U.S. economy may enter a recession in the coming months were not significantly reduced by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s remarks to a Senate panel on Wednesday. In light of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening of its monetary policy, Powell stated that it will be difficult for the Fed to arrange a smooth landing for the American economy. On Thursday, Powell will address a U.S. House committee.

Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading at $105.25 per barrel on the major outer markets today. In noon trade, the US dollar index is firmer. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note’s yield, which is at 3.05 percent, has decreased this week. Technically speaking, August gold futures bears currently hold the upper hand. The recent sideways and choppy trading action, however, at lower price levels, is pointing to a possible market bottom. The next upward price target for the bulls is to achieve a closing over strong resistance at the June high of $1,882.50. The next short-term downside price target for bears is to drive futures prices below strong technical resistance at $1,800.00. The highs of this past week ($1,850.30) and previous week ($1,861.50) serve as the first points of resistance. At this week’s low of $1,824.50 and then at $1,815.00, support is first seen.

Silver futures for July In the immediate term, bears have a clear technical advantage. The next upward price target for silver bulls is closing above strong technical resistance at the June high of $22.565 per ounce. The bears’ next downward price target is for prices to close below $20.42, which serves as strong support. The highs of today ($21.495) and last Wednesday ($21.675) are the first areas of resistance. The $21.00 mark and the $20.845 low from June serve as the next levels of support.

Today, July New York copper fell 1,755 points to close at 376.80 cents. Prices today touched a new 16-month low as they closed close to the session low. The overall near-term technical edge is clearly in favour of the copper bears. On the daily bar chart, there is an escalating three-week price downturn. The next upward price target for copper bulls is to raise prices over strong technical resistance at 400 cents and close above it. The bears’ next price target on the downside is for prices to close below strong technical support at 350 cents. 380 cents serves as the first point of resistance, followed by 390 cents. 375 cents serves as the first support, followed by 370 cents.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidating Below 1.0500 Amid Multi-Week High

The EUR/USD currency pair is having a hard time continuing its recent winning streak, trading in a tight range just below the 1.0500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. In spite of the consolidation, the pair is still close to its three-week high of Friday, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Technically, the pair‘s location above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January bear run, combined with upbeat oscillators on the daily chart, indicates that the bullish momentum is still intact. This leaves room for a potential rally towards the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A successful breach above this crucial barrier may set the stage for additional gains, with EUR/USD potentially challenging the 1.0600 level. A break above this level may propel the pair towards the December 2024 swing high of 1.0630, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Further bullish momentum may continue to drive the rebound from its more than two-year low in January.

To the contrary, however, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0465 acts as an instant support level. A resolute breach through this area can drive selling momentum faster, pulling the pair towards the 1.0400 round number and down further into the mid-1.0300s (23.6% Fibonacci level). Failure to hold these levels could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, potentially exposing the 1.0200 handle.

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EUR/USD Eases Near

EUR/USD Eases Near 1.0300 Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to approximately 1.0310 during the Asian session on Monday, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar (USD). Market participants are focused on the upcoming Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February and a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

On Friday, former US President Donald Trump announced plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday, though he did not specify which ones. This move has heightened concerns about a global trade war, fueling demand for the safe-haven USD.

“The immediate concern might not be inflation, as counter-effects like a demand slowdown could come into play. However, the bigger issue is uncertainty and the shift toward a more protectionist world,” said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces pressure from growing expectations of further ECB rate cuts amid sluggish economic growth. ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic stated that the market’s anticipation of three rate cuts this year is reasonable. However, he emphasized that greater clarity on monetary policy direction may not emerge until early in the second quarter.

Traders will keep a close eye on US trade policies, especially Trump’s repeated threats against Europe. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi noted that the objectives, timing, and tariff rates remain unclear. Nonetheless, the European Commission has stated it would retaliate firmly against any tariffs imposed by the US.

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EUR/USD Holds Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0400 Ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales Data

EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.0390 in the Asian session on Thursday, extending losses following a two-day recovery. Investors remain wary ahead of the release of Eurozone Retail Sales data later today.

Market predictions suggest that Eurozone retail sales scaled by 1.9% year on year in December, up from the previous 1.2% increase. However, the monthly number is expected to fall by 0.1%, erasing the 0.1% increase reported in November.

The euro remains under pressure as market sentiment points to further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). Policymakers feel optimistic that inflation will steadily return to the ECB’s 2% objective, lessening the need for additional tightening.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, has stabilized at 107.70, restricting EUR/USD’s upside potential. The dollar’s resiliency comes after a three-day losing skid, which puts pressure on the pair.

On Thursday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated his desire for keeping existing interest rates, underlining that the Fed’s policy remained restrictive despite the 100-basis-point drop. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly emphasized the central bank’s cautious attitude in the face of prolonged economic uncertainties.

The dollar weakened on Wednesday following a disappointing US Services PMI reading. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from a revised 54.0 in December, falling short of the market consensus of 54.3. Looking ahead, traders are watching Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy actions.

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EUR/USD Stuck in Range Near 1.0375-1.0380 as Bulls Struggle for Direction

EUR/USD Struggles for Clear Direction, Stays Range-Bound Near 1.0375-1.0380

The EUR/USD pair continues in consolidation mode, failing to build on its recent recovery from the 1.0200 region—the lowest level since January 13. After reaching a weekly high earlier on Wednesday, the pair is fluctuating within a narrow range around 1.0375-1.0380, showing little change for the day amid mixed market signals.

Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated a cooling U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. Markets are now factoring in the likelihood of two rate cuts by the Fed this year. Risk-on sentiment also remains prevalent, but should continue to weigh on demand for the safe-haven USD, and thereby support EUR/USD.

Upside momentum, however remains constrained by issues on the introduction of U.S. tariffs over the goods to be imported in Europe under Trump’s administration, among others, and the ECB dovish direction which is being felt in restraining the Euro though HICP was reported higher to an annual rate of 2.5% in the last month, still, does not allow much upside in this pair.

Looking ahead, market participants will focus on the final Eurozone Services PMI release, while the U.S. economic calendar highlights the ADP private-sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI. Movements in the USD could also be influenced by key FOMC member speeches. Still, Friday’s NFP report will focus more attention on it as it will help deliver a better picture of the situation in the U.S. labor market and set the direction for future Fed policy.

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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD Holds Above 1.2400 as Markets Watch China Tariff Developments

GBP/USD extends its gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.2430 during Asian market hours on Tuesday. With  the  decision   by   U.S. President Donald Trump   to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada , the pair benefits from a risk-on sentiment .

Despite this, investors continue to pay close attention to ongoing trade negotiations, making market volatility a major concern. Trump declared that he would postpone imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days following their agreements to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border to fight drug trafficking.

This move follows Trump’s recent decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Additional tariffs on China are anticipated to go into effect Tuesday at 5:00 GMT. Trump managed to say that talks with Chinese officials might happen “probably over the next 24 hours,” and that tariffs on China would be “very, very substantial” if an agreement could not be made.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, hovers around 108.70 after erasing most of its gains from the previous session. Strong U.S. economic data could provide support for the greenback, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 in January from 49.3 in December, surpassing the expected 49.8.

While GBP/USD may rise, the British Pound’s upside may be limited, given the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates once again. Despite rising wages in the UK, the BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to vote 8-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member likely advocating for maintaining rates at their current level for now.

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EUR/USD Drops to 1.0200 on Trump’s Trade Tariffs

EUR/USD Slumps to Multi-Week Low Near 1.0200 Amid Trump’s Trade Tariffs

The EUR/USD pair extends its decline on Monday, plunging to the 1.0200 region—a three-week low—during the early Asian session. This drop brings the pair closer to its lowest level in over two years, last seen in January, reinforcing the ongoing multi-month downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) gains broad strength following President Donald Trump’s weekend announcement of new tariffs: 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. These measures escalate global trade tensions, dampening investor appetite for riskier assets and boosting demand for the safe-haven USD. As a result, the EUR/USD pair faces renewed selling pressure.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, Trump also declared on Friday evening that he would impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This, coupled with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish stance, further weighs on the euro. Last Thursday, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) as expected and signaled the possibility of additional rate cuts before the year’s end, exacerbating the euro’s weakness.

The policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) further tilts market sentiment in favor of the USD. While the Fed has opted for a hawkish pause, supporting the dollar’s strength, a recent pullback in US Treasury yields may limit further USD gains and offer some relief to the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall market outlook suggests that the pair’s downside momentum is likely to persist.

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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 | Focus on Q4 GDP & ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0400 Ahead of Q4 GDP Data and ECB Policy Decision

The EUR/USD pair is edging higher after three consecutive losses, trading near 1.0420 during Thursday’s Asian session. The rebound is primarily driven by a technical pullback in the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains just below 108.00.

Despite the recent uptick, further gains for EUR/USD may be capped as the USD could regain strength following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed reinforced its hawkish stance by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any policy changes would require “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market.” As expected, the Fed maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a one-percentage-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its policy meeting on Thursday, lowering the Deposit Rate to 2.75%. Market sentiment suggests that further rate cuts from the ECB may follow in the coming months, potentially weighing on the Euro.

Investors will closely watch the release of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday. Later in the day, focus will shift to the US Annualized GDP report, which could influence market sentiment and currency movements.

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USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

USD/JPY Holds Steady Near 147.00 as Yen Weakens on Trade Tensions and BoJ Rate Outlook

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to trade with a bearish bias on Wednesday, keeping the USD/JPY pair firm around the 147.00 mark during the Asian session. A stronger US Dollar and persistent concerns over rising trade tensions are weighing heavily on the Yen, as markets brace for the impact of US tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1. 

Former US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese imports, coupled with the threat of retaliatory action, has sparked renewed fears over Japan’s economic resilience. The country’s Q1 GDP contracted, real wages in May dropped at their steepest pace in nearly two years, and political uncertainty is rising ahead of the July 20 House of Councillors election. Recent polls suggest the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may struggle to retain its majority, further dampening investor confidence. 

These developments have led traders to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year. The combination of domestic headwinds and external pressure is weakening the JPY, while the US Dollar continues to gain on expectations that rising tariffs will stoke inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. 

The Fed’s June decision to hold interest rates steady, along with a strong US jobs report, has reinforced the belief that rate cuts may be delayed until at least October. The FOMC meeting minutes, due later today, will be closely watched for insights into the Fed’s policy trajectory. Markets currently anticipate up to 50 basis points in rate cuts by year-end. 

Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds 

Technically, USD/JPY’s break and close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) — for the first time since February — signals potential for further gains. Positive momentum on the daily chart supports a move toward the 147.60–147.65 resistance area, with the 148.00 handle, a key June high, in sight. 

On the downside, immediate support lies near 146.50, with the 100-day SMA just below 146.00 acting as a critical pivot. A decisive break below this level could shift momentum in favor of bears, opening room for deeper losses. 

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NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5700 on weaker US PMI data

During the early Asian session on Thursday, the NZD/USD pair was trading slightly higher at 0.5690. The Greenback falls against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as US economic data disappoints. Investors will keenly monitor developments in the rekindled trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies. 

The weaker US Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) could weigh on the Greenback and generate a tailwind for the pair. The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.8 in January from 54.0 (revised from 54.1) in December. This reading came in below the market consensus of 54.3.

On the other hand, New Zealand’s fourth-quarter employment report will put the RBNZ on pace to decrease the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.75% this month. Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday that the country’s unemployment rate increased to 5.1% in Q4, up from 4.8% the previous quarter. This result was a four-year high and exceeded the 25-year average of 4.8%. Rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may decrease interest rates may further impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

“In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% at the February 19 meeting and the policy rate to through around 3.00% over the next 12 months. Bottom line: NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD,” noted Société Générale’s FX analysts. 

On Tuesday, the finance ministry in China unveiled a package of tariffs on various US products such as crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos in a sharp response to an announcement made by US President Donald Trump imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Further, China served notice to several companies including Google for potential sanctions in response to Trump’s tariffs. Any sign of uncertainty or a rising trade war tension may see the China-proxy Kiwi being dragged lower, as China remains one of the major trading partners to New Zealand.

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JPY Recovers Losses vs. USD, Bullish Outlook Intact

Japanese Yen Recovers Some Losses Against USD; Bullish Outlook Remains Intact

The Japanese yen (JPY) cut some of its intraday losses against the US dollar (USD) on Monday, bringing the USD/JPY pair back below the mid-155.00s during the early European session. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions showed conversations about the possibility of further hikes in interest rates. Furthermore, Tokyo’s core inflation increased at the quickest annual rate in nearly a year, raising expectations of further policy tightening by the BoJ, which supports the JPY.

Beyond monetary policy, narrowing interest rate differentials between Japan and other major economies, including the US, alongside a broader risk-off sentiment, provide additional support to the safe-haven JPY. However, concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s newly announced trade tariffs limit the yen’s upside. Meanwhile, the USD remains broadly strong, allowing the USD/JPY pair to maintain its positive momentum for a second consecutive day, ahead of the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI report.

Yen Gains Traction Amid BoJ Rate Hike Bets and Trade War Fears

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, effective Tuesday.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, and China’s foreign ministry all replied quickly, indicating probable retaliation. The US Dollar continues to climb, approaching a two-year high last hit in January, supporting the USD/JPY pair’s upward trend.

The Bank of Japan’s latest Summary of Opinions, released on Monday, showed that policymakers are thinking about additional rate hikes, though this has failed to appreciably lift the JPY.

Board members of the Bank of Japan stressed the need of continuing to raise interest rates if economic conditions and inflation remain stable.

Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the government is closely monitoring the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the yen amid concerns over potential economic fallout.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reiterated Japan’s commitment to achieving the BoJ’s 2% inflation target while implementing measures to offset rising living costs.

The US-Japan yield spread remains near a multi-week low, which, coupled with risk aversion, could help stabilize the yen in the near term.

Investors now turn their focus to key US economic data, starting with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Near 156.25; Bears in Control Below This Level

From a technical standpoint, last week’s strong rebound from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-January rally and the subsequent upside move favor bullish traders. However, additional gains beyond 156.00 may encounter resistance near last week’s swing high at 156.25. A sustained break above this level could spark a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards:

  • 156.70-156.75 resistance
  • 157.00 psychological mark
  • 157.60 horizontal barrier
  • Potential extension towards 158.00, with an ultimate target at the 158.85-158.90 multi-month high from January 10

Conversely, on the downside:-

  • 155.00 serves as immediate support
  • Below this, watch for key levels at 154.55-154.50 and 154.00
  • A break below the 153.70 January low could accelerate the decline towards 153.30 and eventually 153.00

While the JPY is exhibiting some resilience, the overall trend remains unpredictable, with market participants intently watching economic indicators and geopolitical developments.

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Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Bets Rise, Fed Decision Looms

Australian Dollar Slides Amid Rising Odds of RBA Rate Cuts, Fed Decision in Focus

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losing streak for a third consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD), weighed down by softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia.

Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, matching the previous quarter but missing the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI eased to 2.4% from 2.8% in Q3, below the market forecast of 2.5%. Despite December’s monthly CPI ticking up to 2.5% YoY, inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2%-3% target range. Meanwhile, the RBA’s Trimmed Mean CPI slowed to 3.2% YoY, its weakest pace in three years, slightly under the anticipated 3.3%.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers expressed confidence that “the worst of the inflation challenge is behind us” and that a “soft landing” is increasingly likely. The cooling inflation strengthens the case for an RBA rate cut in February. The central bank has held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% since November 2023, emphasizing the need for inflation to “sustainably” return to target before considering a rate reduction.

AUD Pressured by Risk Aversion, Trump’s Tariff Threats

The AUD faces additional headwinds from risk-off sentiment following tariff threats by former US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of key commodities, including computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to boost US manufacturing.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds firm around 108.00 as traders turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, indicate near-certainty that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for guidance on future policy shifts.

Concerns over the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies add another layer of uncertainty. US Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino noted, “A number of White House proposals appear inflationary, which could keep the Fed in check.” Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed universal tariffs on US imports starting at 2.5%, with Trump reportedly favoring even higher rates.

China’s Economic Slowdown Adds Pressure on AUD

The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to China’s economic struggles. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1, missing expectations, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.2 from 52.2. As Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s weak data weighs heavily on the AUD.

Despite China’s recent stimulus measures, including a $7.25 billion investment in index products and long-term stock investments, concerns persist. Industrial profits fell 3.3% YoY in 2024, marking a third consecutive year of contraction, driven by weak demand, deflationary pressures, and a prolonged property sector slump.

Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Turns Bearish Below 0.6250

The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.6230 on Wednesday after breaking below the ascending channel on the daily chart, signaling a shift toward a bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50, reinforcing downside momentum.

A decisive break below key support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel strengthens the bearish outlook, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward 0.6131—its lowest level since April 2020. On the upside, immediate resistance lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6256. A rebound above this level could reintroduce a bullish bias, with the next upside target near 0.6360.

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US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

US Dollar Surges as Trump Revives Tariff Threats

The US dollar strengthened significantly against all major currencies after President Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary reignited concerns about potential tariffs, raising fears that trade policies may return to the forefront. Risk-sensitive currencies, particularly those tied to China, saw sharp declines, while the euro weakened amid speculation that the European Union could soon face tariff pressures. Simultaneously, the Japanese yen took a hit as traders hedged against potential US inflation spikes and rising Treasury yields.

This market turbulence followed a Financial Times report indicating that Scott Bessent, the newly appointed Treasury Department official, supports a phased approach to implementing universal tariffs on US imports. The initial proposal suggests starting with a 2.5% tariff rate. However, President Trump hinted at a much broader scope, potentially targeting a range of imports from steel to semiconductor chips and suggesting higher tariff rates over time.

The administration’s “moderate” proposal involves a gradual increase in tariffs, reaching 20% over eight months in increments of 2.5% per month. This timeline has triggered speculation about more extreme scenarios and raised questions about the global trade concessions needed to halt these measures. Bessent’s approach, which allows businesses time to adjust, could also spark a rush of imports and exports to avoid higher future costs.

Amid these developments, financial markets are grappling with the potential outcomes. Traders are assessing whether the proposed tariff measures are fully priced in and evaluating the likelihood of de-escalation through negotiation.

On the positive side, any concessions or agreements that delay or reduce tariffs could stabilize markets. However, the risks of escalating tariffs, particularly if negotiations fail, remain a significant concern. Higher tariffs could disrupt global trade and have far-reaching implications for currency valuations.

While we initially favored long positions on the dollar, the unfolding tariff narrative has introduced significant uncertainty. Staying prepared for sudden shifts in policy and market dynamics is now crucial as the situation continues to evolve.

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Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

Australian Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over Trump’s Trade Policies and Mixed Chinese Data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) ended its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the AUD/USD pair trading flat following the release of mixed Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. As a close trade partner, Australia’s economy is heavily influenced by China’s economic performance.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January, down from 50.1 in December, missing market expectations. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 from the previous month’s 52.2. These weaker-than-expected figures suggest a slowdown in China’s economic recovery, weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.

Despite fresh stimulus measures from China aimed at revitalizing its equity markets, the AUD struggled to gain momentum. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced a second round of long-term stock investment pilot programs valued at 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). However, these measures have done little to alleviate investor concerns about China’s economic challenges.

Risk Aversion Rises Amid Trump’s Trade Tariff Push

Broader market sentiment took a hit as reports emerged that US President Donald Trump’s advisers are pushing to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February 1, bypassing negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump’s willingness to move swiftly on tariffs follows similar actions taken against Colombia, raising fears of escalating trade tensions and dampening demand for riskier assets like the Australian Dollar.

Adding to the negative outlook, China’s Industrial Profits declined by 3.3% year-over-year in 2024 to CNY 7,431.05 billion, marking the third consecutive year of contraction. This downturn highlights ongoing economic headwinds, including weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property sector.

Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Eyes Key Resistance Amid Bullish Setup

The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6290 on Monday, showing signs of upward momentum within an ascending channel on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above 50, reflecting mild optimism in the market.

On the upside, the pair could retest the psychological resistance level at 0.6300, with the next target near the channel’s upper boundary around 0.6350.

Support levels are found at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6265, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6254. A stronger support lies near the channel’s lower boundary around 0.6240, which could act as a safety net in case of a downside correction.

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NZD/USD Struggles

NZD/USD Struggles Below 0.5700 Amid Trump’s Tariff Plans and Dovish RBNZ Expectations

The NZD/USD pair remains under pressure, trading near 0.5675 during the early Asian session on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces headwinds due to uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on China and the dovish outlook of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicated a continued decline in underlying inflation, strengthening expectations of additional rate cuts by the RBNZ. Swap markets now estimate a nearly 90% chance of a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut on February 19, building on the two cuts already implemented in this cycle. The RBNZ is projected to deliver a total of 100 bps in rate cuts through the remainder of 2025.

Meanwhile, the downside for the pair could be capped by recent comments from Trump. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Trump called for immediate interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “With oil prices going down, I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” Trump said.

Investors are now closely watching for further details on Trump’s tariff policies, alongside key US economic data releases. The flash US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for January will be a key focus later on Friday, along with the release of US Existing Home Sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

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Bitcoin Price Goes Downside and Capped at Level $9,700 to Confluence Detector

 

Bitcoin Price Goes Downside and Capped at Level $9,700 to Confluence Detector

 

The Bitcoin has gone undergone a significant drop in the past few days.

A week ago, It was noticed that Bitcoin is probably going to enter an upturn on account of the ongoing spike in the “BTC changed hands” metric. Spikes in BTC changing hands on-chain regularly goes before an inversion in value activity, he included.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, rose by the level at 1.09% on Tuesday. Mostly changing a 4.57% slide from Monday, Bitcoin finished the day at $10,549.0.

It was a blended beginning to the day. Bitcoin tumbled to an early morning intraday low $10,377.0 before making a move. Avoiding the primary significant help level at $10,171, Bitcoin rose to a late intraday high to the level of $10,597.0.

Avoiding the mark concerning the main significant obstruction level at $10,850, Bitcoin moved back to wrap up the day at sub-$10,550 levels. The close term bullish pattern stayed unblemished, upheld by the most recent pullback. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to frame a close term bearish pattern.

However, Bitcoin was somewhere around 0.02% to $10,549.6. A blended beginning to the day saw Bitcoin tumble to an early morning low $10,540.0 before ascending to a high $10,555.0.

Bitcoin left the significant help and opposition levels untested at an early stage. Somewhere else, it was a quiet beginning to the day. Ethereum is traded at the level (- 0.27%) and Ripple’s XRP (- 0.03%) battled at an early stage. It was a bullish beginning for the remainder of the majors, nonetheless.

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Crypto Daily Bitcoin Breaks back at the Level $10,400 pack with Support

Crypto Daily Bitcoin Breaks back at the Level $10,400 pack with Support

 

Let’s talk about the cryptos there is the mix start day of the majors. A bitcoin going back and breaks back through the level at $10,400 that provide the pack with the support.

Bitcoin, BTC to USD, slipped by 2.42% on Tuesday. Reversing a 1.18% gain from Monday, Bitcoin ended the day at the level of $10,148.0.

Bitcoin rose to an early morning intraday high at the level of $10,464.0 before hitting reverse.

Missing the mark regarding the principal significant opposition level at $10,579, Bitcoin slid to a late intraday low $9,882.4.

Bitcoin fell through the main significant help level at $10,065 recuperating to wrap up the day at $10,100 levels.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, disregarding the most recent pullback to sub-$10,000. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to frame a close term bearish pattern.

Bitcoin would need to travel through the $10,165 turn level to help a run at the principal significant obstruction level at $10,447.

Backing from the more extensive market would be required, notwithstanding, for Bitcoin to crush spirit through to $10,400 levels.

Notwithstanding an all-inclusive crypto rally, the principal significant obstruction level and Tuesday’s high $10,464.0 would almost certainly trim any upside.

In case of a crypto breakout, Bitcoin could test obstruction at $10,700 before any pullback. The second significant opposition level sits at $10,746.

The inability to travel through the $10,165 rotate would bring the primary significant help level at $9,866 into play.

Blocking another all-inclusive crypto auction, in any case, Bitcoin should avoid the subsequent significant help level at $9,583.

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Bitcoin Goes Remain Dormant and Provide Ethereum Large Returns

Bitcoin Goes Remain Dormant and Provide Ethereum Large Returns

 

The Bitcoin continues to go uptrend to the resistance level of $12,000 in another month. This vital value obstacle dismissed BTC’s upward value activity a few times all through August, while the $11,000 uphold level held falling costs under control. The quality of every one of these critical levels was developed over the previous month, with no of them breaking.

The Bitcoin has seems at the great boon. The bitcoin price surged at the level of $11,351 that will go yearly high at the point of $12,135.

The Bitcoin has seems at the great boon. The bitcoin price surged at the level of $11,351 that will go yearly high at the point of $12,135. It will quickly become evident to solve all the problems. Apart from these, the cryptocurrency will seems 13% nosedive in the few minutes after reaching the falls on the monthly low of the $10,546.15.

The BTC began to consolidate to the narrow range for the trading between the overhead resistance and the support level that was mentioned previously.

Moreover, the bitcoin was seemed yearly high at the level of $12,500 in August with the 17th upswing that will see the retrace price below the $12,500 to the dormant price action to the Bollinger bands on the daily hour chart.

Surely, the bellwether cryptocurrency price moved back to the $11,000 uphold level by August 25th to then bounce back towards $12,000 as August reached a conclusion. Bitcoin had the option to close the month at $11,655, giving business specialists a month to month return of 2.67%.

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Bitcoin Price Suddenly Going Up and Hits Gold All the Time High

Bitcoin Price Suddenly Going Up and Hits Gold All the Time High

 

The price of the Bitcoin has shot up high more than 15 percent in recent days and it will finally break the level above $10,000.

The cryptocurrency is suddenly reached above the $11,000 on Tuesday that dipped back down to around $10,800.

“Bitcoin is right now understanding its reputation for being a type of computerized gold. Up to this point, gold has been known as an ultimate place of refuge resource, however, bitcoin – which shares its key characteristics of being a store of significant worth and shortage  might thump gold from its since quite a while ago held situation later on as the world turns out to be permanently tech-driven.”

It was the mixed start day for the BItcoin and the cryptocurrency market. It will support the breakout to move through the level at $11,500.

A mixed beginning to the day saw Bitcoin rise to an early morning intraday high at the level of $11,778.0 before hitting reverse.

Avoiding the mark regarding the main significant opposition level at $11,875, Bitcoin slid to a late evening intraday low to the point at  $11,137.0.

Bitcoin fell during that time’s significant help levels before a short at the to $11,400 level.

The late recovery saw Bitcoin move back through the third significant help level at $11,256 to decrease the shortage on the day.

The close term bullish pattern stayed perfect, upheld by the most recent travel through to $12,000 levels. For the bears, Bitcoin would need to slide through the 62% FIB of $6,400 to frame a close term bearish pattern.

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Bitcoin, Cardano’s and Ethereum Weekly Technical Analysis

Bitcoin, Cardano’s and Ethereum Weekly Technical Analysis!!!

 

It will be a mixed start to the day for the major cryptocurrencies.  It will go choppy to the Sunday session high with the failure of the break backs to test the majors.

Bitcoin will be rose by 2.50% at the end of the weekend on 12th July that will go reversing at the 1.46% loss according to the previous week. The bitcoin will be ended at $9,497.2.

 If we see the start of the week pattern of the Bitcoin it has on the bullish trend and the rose from the  Monday low at level $9,075.8 that will go high on the Wednesday at $9,480.0.

The resistance level to the bitcoin will be fell back to the level at $9,133 before going to adapt the support level. It will recover to the $9,300 levels yesterday seems green to close out the week.

Cardano’s ADA will be rallied at 29.24% on the previously at the end of the week. In the previous week, the Cardano is a breakout at the level 22.3% ended to the week at $0.12694.Moreover, Cardano ADA broke the level through the FIB level at 23.6% of $0.1125 to hit the $0.14 for the time since August 2018.

Ethereum was rose by the level by 1.52% on Sunday that was reversing the decline on Saturday with 0.87% and the Ethereum will be ended the week up by the 6.67% to $242.81.

It will rise early in the morning at the high level of $241.59 before you easily go back.

Ethereum was broke the first major resistance level at $241.36 and the second major resistance level at $243.54.

The major support level for the Ethereum will befall at the level of $237.21 before going to find the support.

If we predict the future analysis the Ethereum will need to avoid the fall through the $241 pivot with the support with the major resistance level at $245.64.

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