USD/CAD Hovers at 1.3510 Despite Oil Strength, Awaits US NFP and Canada GDP Data

The USD/CAD pair remains in a defensive stance around 1.3510, rebounding from its two-week low as it enters the European session on Friday. This resilience comes even as the pair fails to respond positively to the surging prices of Canada’s primary export, WTI crude oil, with traders keeping a close watch on upcoming US employment data and Canadian GDP figures.

Despite a broader US Dollar recovery and anticipation of crucial economic data, the USD/CAD bears persisted in the previous session. The rise in WTI crude oil prices to a multi-day high added further downward pressure to the pair. Additionally, a significant revision in Canadian Current Account data for Q1 2023 contributed to the downward momentum.

Meanwhile, WTI crude oil has seen a four-day consecutive increase, reaching $83.40 and hitting a three-week high. This rally is driven by a series of measures implemented by China to safeguard its economy from a return to pandemic-induced conditions. Notably, the People’s Bank of China reduced the foreign reserve ratio by 2.0%, and numerous Chinese banks lowered Yuan deposit rates. Adverse weather conditions, including Hurricane Idalia in the US and concerns about a typhoon in China, along with a substantial inventory drawdown in the US, have also fueled the rise in oil prices.

In other developments, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to maintain its rebound from the 200-DMA at around 103.60. However, it recorded its most significant one-week gain on Thursday, partly due to optimistic US data that has tempered previous dovish sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed). Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s endorsement of a “higher for longer rates” policy further supported the US Dollar.

Key economic indicators released in the US showed the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August meeting market expectations, with a 4.2% YoY and 0.2% MoM increase. Initial Jobless Claims also dropped to 228K, slightly below market forecasts, while the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for August surpassed expectations. Personal Spending for July exceeded expectations at 0.8%, but Personal Income eased slightly to 0.2%.

Looking ahead, USD/CAD traders will closely monitor risk factors as well as the release of Canada’s Q2 and July GDP data, along with the US employment report for August. The overall outlook for US employment figures appears somewhat pessimistic, making a strong US NFP figure crucial for a potential return of USD/CAD bulls.