Oil Prices Mixed as Markets Digest OPEC+ Supply Cut

OPEC meeting tomorrow to determine what should be done about the amount of crude oil that is supplies to the market. Two weeks ago, the talk looked like to be whether the countries should do anything at all. However, as the price of oil continues to fall, along with weaker manufacturing data and growing fears of a recession, worries of a lack of demand had set in. Rumors started circulating that OPEC would cut supply by 500,000 bpd to 1,000,000 bpd. Over the weekend, the rumors were that OPEC would cut up to 1,500,000 bpd. Russia is said to be leading the way for the supply cuts, as western countries would then need to look to alternative sources for energy. Earlier today, OPEC canceled the Joint Technical Committee meeting scheduled for 4th October.

WTI Crude Oil has been moving aggressively lower since June 14th when oil traded as high as 123.66. The price is moving in a downward sloping channel with brief false breaks above and below the channel. On September 26th, WTI made near-term low of 76.28. Today, Crude Oil has bounced to the top trendline of the channel, up 5%, as traders speculate on the amount of oil OPEC will cut today.

Will OPEC cut back on supply today ? If so, by how much ? It seems like the consensus is for a 1,000,000 bpd cut in supply. If that is the case, be careful of a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trade. Crude oil traded up nearly 5% today. If price continues higher, there may be a pullback on the actual release if it is in line with consensus.