Gold & silver Struggle Despite Weak US dollar

Gold came off its earlier highs while silver turned a touch lower in what has been a quietish day. The US dollar fell further lower, extending it sharp losses from Friday when weak ISM data raised speculation that the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates again towards the back end of this year. But the dollar typically rises in Q1, which I something that could undermine the gold rally. In terms of the immediate term and this week, we have two key risk events that could move the dollar thus gold price.

Jerome Powell’s speech is expected while US CPI data for December will be released on Thursday. Both of these macro events have the potential to move dollar sharply again, after a double whammy of bearish news sent the greenback tumbling on Friday, and Monday. The weakness in wages and soft services PMI data both point to subdued economic activity, reducing the need for the Fed to hike rates aggressively to tame inflation. But will the Fed chair acknowledge this on Tuesday, or once again talk up inflation risks ? The analysts are expecting CPI to rise by only 0.1% m/m, there is potential for a positive surprise.

Ahead of these events, Gold has now reached another major technical zone between 1878ish to 1900ish.