EUR/USD Tests Key Support Level as Focus Shifts to ECB and Economic Data

The EUR/USD currency pair is in a bit of a sticky situation. It’s currently hanging around the 1.0780 level, which is pretty important. It’s been at this level for about 5.5 months. Recently, there was a tiny bounce, but that excitement didn’t last long. Why? Well, the European Central Bank (ECB) folks didn’t drop any hints that they’re going to be super aggressive with their money moves. On the flip side, the US Dollar is flexing its muscles because of changes in interest rates and some big money events coming up in Europe and the US.

Philip Lane, who’s the big shot economist at the ECB, said that inflation data for August wasn’t looking so hot. But he also said we should chill a bit and wait for more data before we go making any big decisions. The ECB President, Christine Lagarde, is also all about keeping our expectations for inflation in check. Other bigwigs at the ECB think the same way.

Now, over in the US, things are looking up. The US job numbers (Nonfarm Payrolls) and what Moody’s thinks about US growth have people thinking that the US might get more serious about its money game. That’s been giving the Euro a hard time. Plus, folks in the market aren’t completely sold on what China is doing with its money, and there’s some tension between China and the US, which makes the US Dollar look even better.

So, right now, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is gaining a bit of ground, the S&P 500 Futures (that’s like a sneak peek at the stock market) are slightly down, and the interest rates on US government bonds are climbing. In Europe, the Sentix Investor Confidence Index and Expectations Index for September took a dip, and the Current Situation Index is at its lowest point since November 2022. All these signs point toward folks being a tad more careful with the EUR/USD pair.

Looking ahead, people who sell the EUR/USD are probably feeling pretty hopeful. There’s not a lot of faith in the ECB’s money hawks, and the data coming out of Europe isn’t looking too hot. We’re going to be keeping an eye on the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July in Europe and the US Factory Orders for the same month to figure out which way things might go next.