EUR/USD Stays Defensive Below 1.1000, Vulnerable Amid Modest USD Strength

At the start of the new trading week, the EUR/USD pair encountered notable selling pressure, leading to a retracement from its recent peak near the 1.1040 level. During the Asian session, spot prices slipped below the psychologically significant 1.1000 mark, temporarily disrupting the two-day recovery that had lifted the pair from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.0910. The recent rebound in EUR/USD had come after it touched a nearly one-month low last Thursday, signaling underlying weakness in the currency pair.

Driving the market sentiment, the US Dollar (USD) gained traction as investors embraced the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Despite a somewhat underwhelming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday, which indicated the addition of 187,000 jobs in July with downward revisions for May and June figures, the USD found support due to robust wage growth and a lower unemployment rate, both of which pointed to a tightening labor market. These factors solidified the possibility of the Fed implementing a 25 basis points rate hike in either September or November, bolstering the demand for the greenback.

On the flip side, the euro faced challenges as expectations grew that the European Central Bank (ECB) would halt its streak of nine consecutive interest rate hikes during its September meeting. Concerns escalated as indications arose that inflation in the Euro Zone had likely reached its peak. Notably, Fitch Ratings’ statement on the matter and the ECB’s economic bulletin, both hinting at a potential slowdown in underlying inflation, further weighed on the sentiment surrounding the EUR/USD pair.

In the coming days, all eyes will be on the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on Thursday. Market participants eagerly await this data release as it is expected to offer crucial insights into the Fed’s future rate-hike decisions and could potentially drive further demand for the USD. Concurrently, traders will closely monitor Euro Zone macroeconomic data, including German Industrial Production and Sentix Investor Confidence, for additional cues about the economic outlook.

While the prevailing fundamental factors suggest a bearish sentiment surrounding the EUR/USD pair, traders should exercise prudence, as short-term trading opportunities may emerge. Particularly, speeches by members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could influence the direction of the USD in the near term. Nonetheless, considering the overall backdrop, the sentiment continues to lean towards a downside bias for spot prices, signaling potential further weakness for the EUR/USD pair in the foreseeable future.