EUR/GBP near 0.8700 after UK job data; Eurozone, UK PMI watched

The EUR/GBP cross is facing downward pressure as it approaches the 0.8700 mark. This comes after the release of mixed UK employment statistics on Tuesday. Both the Eurozone and the UK are expected to release pivotal economic data, which will significantly influence the market ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision on Wednesday.

In the UK, the ILO Unemployment Rate for the quarter leading to August was 4.2%, a slight improvement from the previous 4.3%. This surpassed market predictions, which stood at 4.3%. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed on Tuesday that there was a rise in people seeking unemployment benefits in September, increasing by 20.4K from last month’s 0.9K and exceeding the anticipated 2.3K. In addition, the British Employment Change for August was recorded at -82K, which is better than the -207K in July and above the forecasted -198K.

Rumors suggest that the Bank of England (BoE) might hold the interest rates at 5.25% in their upcoming November meeting. This speculation arises from the subpar data that indicates the UK Manufacturing PMI is below the standard 50.0 mark, and there’s a decline in Retail Sales, hinting at a slow-paced UK economy.

In terms of the Eurozone, the initial Consumer Confidence for October was slightly improved at -17.9, compared to the former -17.8 reading. These numbers outperformed the anticipated -18.3, as stated by the European Commission’s Monday report. The ECB’s interest rate decision, set to be disclosed on Wednesday, is predicted to remain static at 5%. ECB’s President, Christine Lagarde, is speculated to retain her current stance, although she might counter any suggestions of a rate cut due to the weakening economic scenario.

Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical unrest in the Middle East is causing a surge in energy costs, which is, in turn, impacting the Euro. A recent report by Reuters mentioned that the European Union might prolong the emergency gas price cap that was set in February. This is due to apprehensions related to the Middle East turmoil and potential disruptions to the Baltic pipeline, which could elevate prices this coming winter. This potential energy crisis in the Eurozone could further challenge the EUR/GBP position.

Investors are keenly awaiting the upcoming release of the preliminary German and Eurozone HCOB PMI for October, which is expected later on Tuesday. The UK S&P Global/CIPS PMI data will also be unveiled soon. All these upcoming reports will play a crucial role in guiding traders prior to the ECB’s monetary policy discussion on Wednesday.