After UK CPI data release, GBP/JPY surged past 185.00

After the release of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the GBP/JPY currency pair experienced a surge, surpassing the 185.00 mark. This positive momentum in the cross is due to the encouraging inflation figures from the UK. However, market participants are also closely monitoring the possibility of foreign exchange (FX) intervention by the Bank of Japan.

According to the latest data from the UK’s National Statistics, the CPI for June showed a month-on-month decrease of -0.4%, slightly better than the market consensus of -0.5%. On a yearly basis, British CPI inflation rose to 6.8% in June, in line with expectations. The core CPI, which excludes volatile oil and food prices, increased by 6.9% in July, surpassing the estimated 6.8%. Additionally, the UK Retail Price Index (RPI) for July reported a month-on-month decline of -0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0%.

Meanwhile, Japan’s economic growth data for the second quarter revealed a QoQ increase of 1.5%, higher than the expected 0.8% and the previous 0.7%. On an annual basis, Japan’s GDP rose to 6.0%, exceeding the estimated 3.1% and the previous 2.7%. The Yen’s weakness can be attributed to the monetary policy differential between the US and Japan, with the potential for additional rate hikes by the Bank of England acting as a boost for the Pound Sterling and potentially benefiting the GBP/JPY cross.

Despite these positive factors, traders are exercising caution due to concerns about FX intervention by the Bank of Japan. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that rapid currency movements are undesirable, and the government is prepared to respond appropriately. However, he emphasized that there are no specific levels targeted for intervention.

Looking ahead, market participants will be closely watching the release of UK Retail Sales data for July, with expectations of a 0.5% decline. Additionally, the upcoming Japanese Trade data and the annual National Consumer Price Index for July will provide further insights into the economic landscape.

In summary, the GBP/JPY cross surged above the 185.00 mark following the release of positive UK CPI data. The potential for additional rate hikes by the Bank of England and the cautious sentiment surrounding FX intervention by the Bank of Japan are factors that traders are keeping a close eye on. Moving forward, upcoming economic indicators will continue to shape market dynamics for the GBP/JPY cross.