US CPI Preview CPI to remain elevated

The September headline inflation was 8.2% YoY, higher than expectations of 8.1% YoY, however lower than the August reading of 8.3% YoY. The Core CPI reading was higher than expected at 6.6% YoY vs expectations of 6.5% YoY and an August reading of 6.3% YoY. This was the highest reading since 1982.

The Fed has a dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. With the labor market remaining strong, the Fed is focused on price stability, and has maintained that lowering inflation is its number one priority. During the press conference that followed the FOMC statement on 2nd November, Fed Chairman Powell noted that incoming data suggests that the ultimate level of rates will be higher than previously anticipated. In addition, he said that “how high to rise rates is more important that the pace of tightening”. These statements imply that the Fed believes inflation will remain higher for longer. But has the four consecutive 75bps rate hikes finally fed through to the real economy ? If yes, inflation may be lower than expected, which should lift stock prices and lower the value of the US Dollar.

EUR/USD has been moving higher since the US Non-Farm payroll data on November 4th. The first resistance is at the highs from October 26th at 1.0094. Above there is a confluence of resistance at the highs from September 12th and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from the lows of September 28th to the highs of October 26th between 1.0193 and 1.0198. The 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the same timeframe in the nest level of resistance at 1.0318. If the data is higher than expected, EUR/USD could go lower. First support is at the low of November 8th at 0.9972. Below there, price can fall to the top trendline of the long-term channel near 0.9840 and then the low of November 3rd at 0.9730.