FOMC Hikes Rates and Signals More to Come

As universally expected, the FOMC raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps at the conclusion of its policy meeting today. But the tightening cycle likely is not over yet as the FOMC noted that it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate”.

The FOMC said that “inflation has eased somewhat’” which Chair Powell reiterated in his post-meeting press conference. But he also noted that the committee “has more work to do” in terms of monetary tightening to bring inflation back to the FOMC’s target of 2% on a sustained basis. Powell also stated that policy will need to be restrictive for some time.
We look for the FOMC to hike the fed funds target rate by 25 bps each at its next two policy meetings. That said, we do not have a high level of conviction regarding the exact amount of tightening that the Committee will need to deliver. The FOMC is in the fine-tuning stage of its tightening cycle, and future rate hikes will depend on incoming data in coming weeks and months.

We look for the FOMC to hike the fed funds rate by 25 bps at each of its next two meetings on March 22 and May 3, which would bring the target range for the fed funds rate to 5.00%-5.25%. That said, we do not have a high level of conviction regarding the exact amount of further tightening that the FOMC will deliver. The Committee is in the fine-tuning stage of its tightening cycle, and the number of remaining rate hikes will depend on incoming economic data in coming weeks and months. We have a degree of conviction, however, in our belief that the FOMC will not be quick to ease policy. Committee members appear to be united in their view that inflation remains too high, and that policy will need to be restrictive in order to bring inflation back to the FOMC’s target of 2% on a sustained basis.

We look for the U.S. economy to slip into a mild recession this year, although we acknowledge that the Fed could potentially still pull off a “soft landing” in which inflation returns to 2% without a significant retrenchment in the labor market. In that regard, stocks and bonds rallied on Powell’s comment that the disinflationary process has started without notable weakening in the labor market. It appears that markets are increasingly buying into the “soft landing” scenario.