EUR/USD approaches 0.9600 lows as recovery loses

There was a sharp movement in euro which may be missed. The single currency dropped to a fresh low on the year against the greenback, reaching a low of 0.9551 before bouncing back to hit 0.9700, from where it has since drifted back lower. The EUR/USD has now fallen for the fifth consecutive day. However, it was still off the lows at the time of writing, along with the GBP/USD. Will there be any dup buying as we had to the European close?

There are no obvious sings of a bottom in the EUR/USD yet, there’s the possibility we may see some short-covering at the start of this week, primarily due to the prospects of some coordinated central bank action while the lack of fresh news may encourage short-side profit-taking. In addition, the ECB is acknowledging that the growth and inflation outlook has bad and that the risks on latter are on the upside because of a weaker exchange rate. This is what President Lagarde said earlier today, which cause a bit if a bounce in the euro, although the upside remained capped as investors worried about the health of the economy. Any front-loading of interest rate hikes will only bring forward the time the ECB cuts again to help boost the economy. The central bank’s hands are tied, like the BoE and others.

There will be CPI on Friday although German inflation numbers will be released a day earlier which will be as if not more important. Eurozone CPI has repeatedly broken records this year and in August it rose to an eye-watering 9.1% annual rate. Are we going to see double digits given the further weakness in the single currency? If so, this will cement expectations about a 75-basis point ECB rate hike on October 27, and potentially lead to speculation about an even more aggressive approach from the central bank.