Despite BoE’s Bailey’s Hawkish Stance, Sellers Approach 1.2600 Ahead of Powell’s Speech

The GBP/USD pair is drawing closer to a 15-day low near the 1.2620 mark as Thursday’s London market opens for trading. Investors are seemingly giving more weight to the impending speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell than to the statements made by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. This preference for Powell’s address may be driven by the relatively healthier economic conditions in the UK compared to the US, coupled with the positive results of the US Banking Stress Test, both of which underscore the strength of the US Dollar.

Governor Bailey has voiced his readiness to adopt necessary measures to meet the inflation target, observing clear signs of enduring inflation. This hints at the possibility of additional rate hikes from the Bank of England in the future. On the flip side, Chairman Powell has corroborated expectations of increased tightening, spurred by labor market trends, while downplaying the prospect of an economic downturn as the most likely scenario.

Moreover, the results of the US Banking Stress Test have demonstrated that major US banks possess sufficient capital to weather a significant economic downturn. This robust financial standing allows these banks to contemplate actions such as share buybacks and dividends, further reinforcing the strength of the US Dollar.

Developments in US-China relations also contribute to the US Dollar’s resilience and present challenges to overall market sentiment. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has expressed hopes to visit China to reestablish contacts, indicating a desire for improved bilateral relations. However, she has also signaled a readiness to take actions necessary to protect national security interests, showing a willingness to adopt a hardline stance if required.

Market indicators like the S&P 500 Futures currently lack a clear direction, following gains made over the past two days. Meanwhile, US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields are consolidating losses from the previous day, currently hovering around 3.48% and 4.75% respectively.

Moving forward, market participants will be keeping a close eye on Jerome Powell’s speech for any signs of the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy direction. Alongside this, the revised version of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2023, as well as secondary US employment and activity data, will be closely scrutinized for further clarity and direction. These upcoming events and data releases are expected to offer significant insights into the economic climates of both countries, thereby influencing the trajectory of the GBP/USD pair.